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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Design optimization for cost and quality: The robust design approach

Designing reliable, low cost, and operable space systems has become the key to future space operations. Designing high quality space systems at low cost is an economic and technological challenge to the designer. A systematic and efficient way to meet this challenge is a new method of design optimization for performance, quality, and cost, called Robust Design. Robust Design is an approach for design optimization. It consists of: making system performance insensitive to material and subsystem variation, thus allowing the use of less costly materials and components; making designs less sensitive to the variations in the operating environment, thus improving reliability and reducing operating costs; and using a new structured development process so that engineering time is used most productively. The objective in Robust Design is to select the best combination of controllable design parameters so that the system is most robust to uncontrollable noise factors. The robust design methodology uses a mathematical tool called an orthogonal array, from design of experiments theory, to study a large number of decision variables with a significantly small number of experiments. Robust design also uses a statistical measure of performance, called a signal-to-noise ratio, from electrical control theory, to evaluate the level of performance and the effect of noise factors. The purpose is to investigate the Robust Design methodology for improving quality and cost, demonstrate its application by the use of an example, and suggest its use as an integral part of space system design process.

Unal, Resit↗

Laser Atmospheric Wind Sounder (LAWS) phase 1. Volume 3: Project cost estimates

The laser atmospheric wind sounder (LAWS) cost modeling activities were initiated in phase 1 to establish the ground rules and cost model that would apply to both phase 1 and phase 2 cost analyses. The primary emphasis in phase 1 was development of a cost model for a LAWS instrument for the Japanese Polar Orbiting Platform (JPOP). However, the Space Station application was also addressed in this model, and elements were included, where necessary, to account for Space Station unique items. The cost model presented in the following sections defines the framework for all LAWS cost modeling. The model is consistent with currently available detail, and can be extended to account for greater detail as the project definition progresses.

Source record↗

The use of activity-based cost estimation as a management tool for cultural change

It will be shown that the greatest barrier to American exploration of the planet Mars is not the development of the technology needed to deliver humans and return them safely to earth. Neither is it the cost of such an undertaking, as has been previously suggested, although certainly, such a venture may not be inexpensive by some measures. The predicted costs of exploration have discouraged serious political dialog on the subject. And, in fact, even optimistic projections of the NASA budget do not contain the resources required, under the existing development and management paradigm, for human space exploration programs. It will be demonstrated that the perception of the costs of such a venture, and the cultural responses to the perceptions are factors inhibiting American exploration of the moon and the planet Mars. Cost models employed in the aerospace industry today correctly mirror the history of past space programs, and as such, are representative of the existing management and development paradigms. However, if, under this current paradigm no major exploration programs are feasible, then cost analysis methods based in the past may not have great utility in exploring the needed cultural changes. This paper explores the use of a new type of model, the activity based cost model, which will treat management style as an input variable, in a sense providing a tool whereby a complete, affordable program might be designed, including both the technological and management aspects.

Mandell, Humboldt↗

Understanding the cost bases of Space Shuttle pricing policies for commercial and foreign customers

The principles and underlying cost bases of the 1977 and 1982 Space Shuttle Reimbursement Policies are compared and contrasted. Out-of-pocket cost recovery has been chosen as the base of the price for the 1986-1988 time period. With this cost base, it is NASA's intent to recover the total cost of consumables and the launch and flight operations costs added by commercial and foreign customers over the 1986-1988 time period. Beyond 1988, NASA intends to return to its policy of full cost recovery.

Stone, Barbara A.↗

Balancing reliability and cost to choose the best power subsystem

The justification of the increased cost of a more reliable power subsystem is discussed. A mathematical model is presented for computing total spacecraft subsystem cost including both the basic subsystem cost and the expected cost due to the failure of the subsystem. This is then used to determine the power subsystem cost as a function of reliability and redundancy. Minimum cost and maximum reliability and/or redundancy are not generally equivalent. Two example cases are presented. One is a small satellite, and the other is an interplanetary spacecraft.

Suich, Ronald C.↗

A unified approach for composite cost reporting and prediction in the ACT program

The Structures Technology Program Office (STPO) at NASA Langley Research Center has held two workshops with representatives from the commercial airframe companies to establish a plan for development of a standard cost reporting format and a cost prediction tool for conceptual and preliminary designers. This paper reviews the findings of the workshop representatives with a plan for implementation of their recommendations. The recommendations of the cost tracking and reporting committee will be implemented by reinstituting the collection of composite part fabrication data in a format similar to the DoD/NASA Structural Composites Fabrication Guide. The process of data collection will be automated by taking advantage of current technology with user friendly computer interfaces and electronic data transmission. Development of a conceptual and preliminary designers' cost prediction model will be initiated. The model will provide a technically sound method for evaluating the relative cost of different composite structural designs, fabrication processes, and assembly methods that can be compared to equivalent metallic parts or assemblies. The feasibility of developing cost prediction software in a modular form for interfacing with state of the art preliminary design tools and computer aided design (CAD) programs is assessed.

Freeman, W. Tom↗

Cost-estimating relationships for space programs

Cost-estimating relationships (CERs) are defined and discussed as they relate to the estimation of theoretical costs for space programs. The paper primarily addresses CERs based on analogous relationships between physical and performance parameters to estimate future costs. Analytical estimation principles are reviewed examining the sources of errors in cost models, and the use of CERs is shown to be affected by organizational culture. Two paradigms for cost estimation are set forth: (1) the Rand paradigm for single-culture single-system methods; and (2) the Price paradigms that incorporate a set of cultural variables. For space programs that are potentially subject to even small cultural changes, the Price paradigms are argued to be more effective. The derivation and use of accurate CERs is important for developing effective cost models to analyze the potential of a given space program.

Mandell, Humboldt C., Jr.↗

Cost - The challenge for advanced materials and structures

Information is presented on the cost of various aircraft structures, together with methods for predicting and reducing cost. The need for the development of cost models, and of a comparative cost algorithm which could function as an engineering design tool to evaluate different design concepts, is emphasized. Efforts are underway to develop cost models that establish building-block unit cell elements that represent different material forms, geometric shapes, fabrication processes, and methods of assembly, with the purpose of expressing cost per pound or labor per pound data, with physical design and manufacture variables that a designer can visualize.

Davis, John G., Jr.↗

Toward lowering the cost of mission operations

The mission operations system is one of the more significant drivers of the cost of the mission operations and data analysis segment of missions. In large or long-lived projects, the MOS can also be a driver in total mission cost. Larger numbers of missions, together with an increasingly cost-conscious environment, dictate that future missions must more strictly control costs as they perform to their requirements. It is therefore prudent to examine the conduct of past missions for ways to conserve resources. In this paper we review inputs made to past projects' 'lessons-learned' activities, in which personnel from past projects (among other things) identified major cost drivers of MOS's and considered how economies were or might have been realized in both design and performance of their MOS. Common themes among four such reviews are summarized in an attempt to provide suggestions for cost reduction in future missions.

Wall, S. D.↗

The role of radiation hard solar cells in minimizing the costs of global satellite communications systems

An analysis embodied in a PC computer program is presented which quantitatively demonstrates how the availability of radiation hard solar cells can minimize the cost of a global satellite communication system. The chief distinction between the currently proposed systems, such as Iridium Odyssey and Ellipsat, is the number of satellites employed and their operating altitudes. Analysis of the major costs associated with implementing these systems shows that operation within the earth's radiation belts can reduce the total system cost by as much as a factor of two, so long as radiation hard components including solar cells, can be used. A detailed evaluation of several types of planar solar cells is given, including commercially available Si and GaAs/Ge cells, and InP/Si cells which are under development. The computer program calculates the end of life (EOL) power density of solar arrays taking into account the cell geometry, coverglass thickness, support frame, electrical interconnects, etc. The EOL power density can be determined for any altitude from low earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous (GEO) and for equatorial to polar planes of inclination. The mission duration can be varied over the entire range planned for the proposed satellite systems. An algorithm is included in the program for determining the degradation of cell efficiency for different cell technologies due to proton and electron irradiation. The program can be used to determine the optimum configuration for any cell technology for a particular orbit and for a specified mission life. Several examples of applying the program are presented, in which it is shown that the EOL power density of different technologies can vary by an order of magnitude for certain missions. Therefore, although a relatively radiation soft technology can be made to provide the required EOL power by simply increasing the size of the array, the impact on the total system budget could be unacceptable, due to increased launch and hardware costs. In aggregate these factors can account for more than a 10% increase in the total system cost. Since the estimated total costs of proposed global coverage systems range from $1 Billion to $9 Billion, the availability of radiation hard solar cells could make a decisive difference in the selection of a particular constellation architecture.

Summers, Geoffrey P.↗

Cost Models for MMC Manufacturing Processes

The quality cost modeling (QCM) tool is intended to be a relatively simple-to-use device for obtaining a first-order assessment of the quality-cost relationship for a given process-material combination. The QCM curve is a plot of cost versus quality (an index indicating microstructural quality), which is unique for a given process-material combination. The QCM curve indicates the tradeoff between cost and performance, thus enabling one to evaluate affordability. Additionally, the effect of changes in process design, raw materials, and process conditions on the cost-quality relationship can be evaluated. Such results might indicate the most efficient means to obtain improved quality at reduced cost by process design refinements, the implementation of sensors and models for closed loop process control, or improvement in the properties of raw materials being fed into the process. QCM also allows alternative processes for producing the same or similar material to be compared in terms of their potential for producing competitively priced, high quality material. Aside from demonstrating the usefulness of the QCM concept, this is one of the main foci of the present research program, namely to compare processes for making continuous fiber reinforced, metal matrix composites (MMC's). Two processes, low pressure plasma spray deposition and tape casting are considered for QCM development. This document consists of a detailed look at the design of the QCM approach, followed by discussion of the application of QCM to each of the selected MMC manufacturing processes along with results, comparison of processes, and finally, a summary of findings and recommendations.

Elzey, Dana M.↗

The role of radiation hard solar cells in minimizing the costs of global satellite communication systems

An analysis embodied in a PC computer program is presented, which quantitatively demonstrates how the availability of radiation hard solar cells can help minimize the cost of a global satellite communications system. An important distinction between the currently proposed systems, such as Iridium, Odyssey and Ellipsat, is the number of satellites employed and their operating altitudes. Analysis of the major costs associated with implementing these systems shows that operation at orbital altitudes within the earth's radiation belts (10(exp 3) to 10(exp 4)km) can reduce the total cost of a system by several hundred percent, so long as radiation hard components including solar cells can be used. A detailed evaluation of the predicted performance of photovoltaic arrays using several different planar solar cell technologies is given, including commercially available Si and GaAs/Ge, and InP/Si which is currently under development. Several examples of applying the program are given, which show that the end of life (EOL) power density of different technologies can vary by a factor of ten for certain missions. Therefore, although a relatively radiation-soft technology can usually provide the required EOL power by simply increasing the size of the array, the impact upon the total system budget could be unacceptable, due to increased launch and hardware costs. In aggregate, these factors can account for more than a 10% increase in the total system cost. Since the estimated total costs of proposed global-coverage systems range from $1B to $9B, the availability of radiation-hard solar cells could make a decisive difference in the selection of a particular constellation architecture.

Summers, Geoffrey P.↗

Validated Feasibility Study of Integrally Stiffened Metallic Fuselage Panels for Reducing Manufacturing Costs

The continual need to reduce airframe cost and the emergence of high speed machining and other manufacturing technologies has brought about a renewed interest in large-scale integral structures for aircraft applications. Applications have been inhibited, however, because of the need to demonstrate damage tolerance, and by cost and manufacturing risks associated with the size and complexity of the parts. The Integral Airframe Structures (IAS) Program identified a feasible integrally stiffened fuselage concept and evaluated performance and manufacturing cost compared to conventional designs. An integral skin/stiffener concept was produced both by plate hog-out and near-net extrusion. Alloys evaluated included 7050-T7451 plate, 7050-T74511 extrusion, 6013-T6511 extrusion, and 7475-T7351 plate. Mechanical properties, structural details, and joint performance were evaluated as well as repair, static compression, and two-bay crack residual strength panels. Crack turning behavior was characterized through panel tests and improved methods for predicting crack turning were developed. Manufacturing cost was evaluated using COSTRAN. A hybrid design, made from high-speed machined extruded frames that are mechanically fastened to high-speed machined plate skin/stringer panels, was identified as the most cost-effective manufacturing solution. Recurring labor and material costs of the hybrid design are up to 61 percent less than the current technology baseline.

Pettit, R. G.↗

Affordable Design: A Methodolgy to Implement Process-Based Manufacturing Cost into the Traditional Performance-Focused Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

The primary objective of this paper is to demonstrate the use of process-based manufacturing and assembly cost models in a traditional performance-focused multidisciplinary design and optimization process. The use of automated cost-performance analysis is an enabling technology that could bring realistic processbased manufacturing and assembly cost into multidisciplinary design and optimization. In this paper, we present a new methodology for incorporating process costing into a standard multidisciplinary design optimization process. Material, manufacturing processes, and assembly processes costs then could be used as the objective function for the optimization method. A case study involving forty-six different configurations of a simple wing is presented, indicating that a design based on performance criteria alone may not necessarily be the most affordable as far as manufacturing and assembly cost is concerned.

Bao, Han P.↗

Report by the International Space Station (ISS) Management and Cost Evaluation (IMCE) Task Force

The International Space Station (ISS) Management and Cost Evaluation Task Force (IMCE) was chartered to conduct an independent external review and assessment of the ISS cost, budget, and management. In addition, the Task Force was asked to provide recommendations that could provide maximum benefit to the U.S. taxpayers and the International Partners within the President's budget request. The Task Force has made the following principal findings: (1) The ISS Program's technical achievements to date, as represented by on-orbit capability, are extraordinary; (2) The Existing ISS Program Plan for executing the FY 02-06 budget is not credible; (3) The existing deficiencies in management structure, institutional culture, cost estimating, and program control must be acknowledged and corrected for the Program to move forward in a credible fashion; (4) Additional budget flexibility, from within the Office of Space Flight (OSF) must be provided for a credible core complete program; (5) The research support program is proceeding assuming the budget that was in place before the FY02 budget runout reduction of $1B; (6) There are opportunities to maximize research on the core station program with modest cost impact; (7) The U.S. Core Complete configuration (three person crew) as an end-state will not achieve the unique research potential of the ISS; (8) The cost estimates for the U.S.-funded enhancement options (e.g., permanent seven person crew) are not sufficiently developed to assess credibility. After these findings, the Task Force has formulated several primary recommendations which are published here and include: (1) Major changes must be made in how the ISS program is managed; (2) Additional cost reductions are required within the baseline program; (3) Additional funds must be identified and applied from the Human Space Flight budget; (4) A clearly defined program with a credible end-state, agreed to by all stakeholders, must be developed and implemented.

Young, A. Thomas↗

Statistical Analysis of Complexity Generators for Cost Estimation

Predicting the cost of cutting edge new technologies involved with spacecraft hardware can be quite complicated. A new feature of the NASA Air Force Cost Model (NAFCOM), called the Complexity Generator, is being developed to model the complexity factors that drive the cost of space hardware. This parametric approach is also designed to account for the differences in cost, based on factors that are unique to each system and subsystem. The cost driver categories included in this model are weight, inheritance from previous missions, technical complexity, and management factors. This paper explains the Complexity Generator framework, the statistical methods used to select the best model within this framework, and the procedures used to find the region of predictability and the prediction intervals for the cost of a mission.

Rowell, Ginger Holmes↗

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM) is a computer program that simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket engines for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Source record↗

Software Development Cost Estimation Executive Summary

Identify simple fully validated cost models that provide estimation uncertainty with cost estimate. Based on COCOMO variable set. Use machine learning techniques to determine: a) Minimum number of cost drivers required for NASA domain based cost models; b) Minimum number of data records required and c) Estimation Uncertainty. Build a repository of software cost estimation information. Coordinating tool development and data collection with: a) Tasks funded by PA&E Cost Analysis; b) IV&V Effort Estimation Task and c) NASA SEPG activities.

data mining↗