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At least 307 records · Page 17

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NASA NTRS1982

User's appraisal of yield model evaluation criteria

The five major potential USDA users of AgRISTAR crop yield forecast models rated the Yield Model Development (YMD) project Test and Evaluation Criteria by the importance placed on them. These users were agreed that the "TIMELINES" and "RELIABILITY" of the forecast yields would be of major importance in determining if a proposed yield model was worthy of adoption. Although there was considerable difference of opinion as to the relative importance of the other criteria, "COST", "OBJECTIVITY", "ADEQUACY", AND "MEASURES OF ACCURACY" generally were felt to be more important that "SIMPLICITY" and "CONSISTENCY WITH SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE". However, some of the comments which accompanied the ratings did indicate that several of the definitions and descriptions of the criteria were confusing.

Warren, F. B.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Agrivoltaic system design tools for managing trade-offs between energy production, crop productivity and water consumption

Abstract Agrivoltaic systems that locate crop production and photovoltaic energy generation on the same land have the potential to aid the transition to renewable energy by reducing the competition between food, habitat, and energy needs for land while reducing irrigation requirements. Experimental efforts to date have not adequately developed an understanding of the interaction among local climate, array design and crop selection sufficient to manage trade-offs in system design. This study simulates the energy production, crop productivity and water consumption impacts of agrivoltaic array design choices in arid and semi-arid environments in the Southwestern region of the United States. Using the Penman–Monteith evapotranspiration model, we predict agrivoltaics can reduce crop water consumption by 30%–40% of the array coverage level, depending on local climate. A crop model simulating productivity based on both light level and temperature identifies afternoon shading provided by agrivoltaic arrays as potentially beneficial for shade tolerant plants in hot, dry settings. At the locations considered, several designs and crop combinations exceed land equivalence ratio values of 2, indicating a doubling of the output per acre for the land resource. These results highlight key design axes for agrivoltaic systems and point to a decision support tool for their development.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS1996

Consideration in selecting crops for the human-rated life support system: a Linear Programming model

A Linear Programming model has been constructed which aids in selecting appropriate crops for CELSS (Controlled Environment Life Support System) food production. A team of Controlled Environment Agriculture (CEA) faculty, staff, graduate students and invited experts representing more than a dozen disciplines, provided a wide range of expertise in developing the model and the crop production program. The model incorporates nutritional content and controlled-environment based production yields of carefully chosen crops into a framework where a crop mix can be constructed to suit the astronauts' needs. The crew's nutritional requirements can be adequately satisfied with only a few crops (assuming vitamin mineral supplements are provided) but this will not be satisfactory from a culinary standpoint. This model is flexible enough that taste and variety driven food choices can be built into the model.

NASA Center JSC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Added Value of SMAP Soil Moisture in Crop Yield Forecasting Over Argentina

Argentina is one of the major producers and exporter of soybeans, corn, and wheat to the world market; therefore, the accurate and timely forecasting of those crops yield is crucial to national crop management and global food security. Previous studies have mainly focused on developing forecasting models for a specific crop type and location using a single source of data (e.g., vegetation indices), thus providing little insight into the forecasting models' performance on different crop types and regions. Besides, these models are based on traditional statistical regression algorithms, while more advanced machine learning approaches have not been explored. This study investigated the estimation of crop yields of three major crops (corn, soybean, and winter wheat) using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Support Vector Machine (SVM), over major growing provinces in Argentina. Our models were trained and evaluated on data from 2015 to 2020, where three remote sensing products (Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), SMAP soil moisture, and MODIS evapotranspiration) were used as predictors. Our results indicated that accurate crop yield forecasts using the developed regression models could be made one to two months before harvest. The MLR and SVM model performance varied among different crop types, where soybean and corn exhibited better predictability compare to the wheat. In most cases, the SVM outperformed the multiple linear regression model due to its ability to capture the nonlinear and complex features of the crop-production process. The forecasted model that combines data from multiple sources outperformed single-source satellite data. The highest accuracy was obtained when the three data sources were all considered in the model development. Results also indicated that the inclusion of SMAP soil moisture improved crop yield forecasting in most provinces, and the most significant improvements occurred in the drier region.

Nazmus Shams Sazib↗

NASA NTRS1985

Overview and highlights of Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment project

Work of the Early Warning and Crop Condition Assessment (EW/CCA) project, one of eight projects in the Agriculture and Resources Inventory Surveys Through Aerospace Remote Sensing (AgRISTARS), is reviewed. Its mission, to develop and test remote sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for crop condition assessment, was in response to initiatives issued by the Secretary of Agriculture. Meteorologically driven crop stress indicator models have been developed or modified for wheat, maize, grain sorghum, and soybeans. These models provide early warning alerts of potential or actual crop stresses due to water deficits, adverse temperatures, and water excess that could delay planting or harvesting operations. Recommendations are given for future research involving vegetative index numbers and the NOAA and Landsat satellites.

Boatwright, G. O.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Core Model Proposal #338: Regional Forest Markets and Crop Trade Updates

The main purpose of this proposal is to update the forest (i.e., Roundwood) trade modeling in GCAM from HOV (Heckscher-Ohlin Vanek) based fully integrated world market to segmented regional markets using the logit-based Armington approach. We also improve agricultural trade-related data, update trade (Armington) parameters based on literature information, and allow elastic forest demand responses. This CMP is an extension of previous GCAM agricultural trade CMPs (289 & 312).

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2026

A coupled hydrologic-agroeconomic modeling framework to evaluate adaptive irrigation strategies under groundwater withdrawal restrictions

Growing groundwater scarcity requires integrated tools to capture interactions among hydrology, agricultural production, markets, and land use. This study presents an iterative modeling framework that couples hydrologic, crop-yield, and economic models to capture two-way feedback among water availability, agricultural production, and market responses under groundwater constraints. The primary goal of this paper is to describe the methodological development of the coupled framework and demonstrate the significance of iterative model interaction. Applied to the western United States, we evaluated adaptive responses to restricting groundwater use beyond recharge levels, represented through changes in irrigation management and expansion or shrinkage of crop markets through land reallocation. Results demonstrate that the iterative coupling converges to stable equilibrium responses within 10 iterations. At equilibrium, deficit irrigation emerges as the dominant adaptation strategy in California, with irrigation levels stabilizing at approximately 70% of full irrigation demand, while Arizona and New Mexico experience stronger yield sensitivities. Early iterations produce commodity price increases of up to 10% for fruit and vegetable crops; however, these responses moderate as land allocation and production patterns adjust across regions. Deficit irrigation and spatial reallocation of irrigated land partially offset production losses, with variability observed across different states: California maintains yields primarily via deficit irrigation, whereas Arizona and New Mexico will rely mainly on reducing irrigated area to absorb the shock. By capturing feedback between biophysical and economic processes, this approach highlights how irrigation strategies and land-use decisions evolve under water stress and provides a transferable platform for evaluating water management policies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Tropical Tree Crop Simulation with a Process-Based, Daily Timestep Simulation Model (ALMANAC): Description of Model Adaptation and Examples with Coffee and Cocoa Simulations

Coffee (Coffea species) and Cocoa (Theobroma cacao) are important cash crops grown in the tropics but traded globally. This study was conducted to apply the ALMANAC model to these crops for the first time, and to test its ability to simulate them under agroforestry management schemes and varying precipitation amounts. To create this simulation, coffee was grown on a site in Kaua’i, Hawai’i, USA, and cocoa was grown on a site in Sefwi Bekwai, Ghana. A stand-in for a tropical overstory tree was created for agroforestry simulations using altered parameters for carob, a common taller tropical tree for these regions. For both crops, ALMANAC was able to realistically simulate yields when compared to the collected total yield data. On Kaua’i, the mean simulated yield was 2% different from the mean measured yield, and in all three years, the simulated values were within 10% of the measured values. For cocoa, the mean simulated yield was 3% different from the mean measured yield and the simulated yield was within 10% of measured yields for all four available years. When precipitation patterns were altered, in Ghana, the wetter site showed lower percent changes in yield than the drier site in Hawai’i. When agroforestry-style management was simulated, a low Leaf Area Index (LAI) of the overstory showed positive or no effect on yields, but when LAI climbed too high, the simulation was able to show the detrimental effect this competition had on crop yields. These simulation results are supported by other literature documenting the effects of agroforestry on tropical crops. This research has applied ALMANAC to new crops and demonstrated its simulation of different management and environmental conditions. The results show promise for ALMANAC’s applicability to these scenarios as well as its potential to be further tested and utilized in new circumstances.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1982

Intercepted photosynthetically active radiation in wheat canopies estimated by spectral reflectance

The interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was evaluated relative to greenness and normalized difference (MSS 7-5/7+5) for five planting dates of wheat for 1978-79 and 1979-80 in Phoenix. Intercepted PAR was calculated from a model driven by leaf area index and stage of growth. Linear relationships were found between greenness and normalized difference with a separate model representing growth and senescence of the crop. Normalized difference was a significantly better model and would be easier to apply than the empirically derived greenness parameter. For the leaf area growth portion of the season the model between PAR interception and normalized difference was the same over years, however, for the leaf senescence the models showed more variability due to the lack of data on measured interception in sparse canopies. Normalized difference could be used to estimate PAR interception directly for crop growth models.

Hatfield, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Early warning and crop condition assessment research

The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

Boatwright, G. O.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Farmers’ Adoption Potential to New Bioenergy Crops: An Agent-Based Approach

The use of fossil fuels is the primary source of greenhouse gas emissions but there are alternatives to these especially in the form of biofuels, fuels derived from bioenergy crops. This paper aims to determine farmers’ potential adoption rates of newly introduced bioenergy crops with a specific example of carinata in the state of Georgia. The determination is done using an agent-based modeling technique with two principal assumptions—farmers are profit maximizer and they are influenced by neighboring farmers. Two diffusion parameters (traditional and expansion) are followed along with two willingness (high and low) scenarios to switch at varying production economics to carinata and other prominent traditional field crops (cotton, peanuts, corn) in the study region. We find that a contract prices around $9, $8 and $7 can be a viable option for encouraging farmers to adopt carinata in low, average, and high profit conditions, respectively. Expansion diffusion (that diffuses all over the geographical area), rather than centered to the few places like traditional diffusion at the early stage of adoption in conjunction with higher willingness conditions influences higher adoption rates in the short-term. As such, the model can be used to understand the behavioral economics of carinata in Georgia and beyond, as well as offering a potential tool to study similar bioenergy crops.

Ullah, Kazi↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Farmers’ Adoption Potential to New Bioenergy Crops: An Agent-Based Approach

Ullah, Kazi↗

NASA NTRS1982

Evaluation of the CEAS trend and monthly weather data models for soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana

The CEAS models evaluated use historic trend and meteorological and agroclimatic variables to forecast soybean yields in Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana. Indicators of yield reliability and current measures of modeled yield reliability were obtained from bootstrap tests on the end of season models. Indicators of yield reliability show that the state models are consistently better than the crop reporting district (CRD) models. One CRD model is especially poor. At the state level, the bias of each model is less than one half quintal/hectare. The standard deviation is between one and two quintals/hectare. The models are adequate in terms of coverage and are to a certain extent consistent with scientific knowledge. Timely yield estimates can be made during the growing season using truncated models. The models are easy to understand and use and are not costly to operate. Other than the specification of values used to determine evapotranspiration, the models are objective. Because the method of variable selection used in the model development is adequately documented, no evaluation can be made of the objectivity and cost of redevelopment of the model.

French, V.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Growth and reflectance characteristics of winter wheat canopies

A valuable input to crop growth and yield models would be estimates of current crop condition. If multispectral reflectance indicates crop condition, then remote sensing may provide an additional tool for crop assessment. The effects of nitrogen fertilization on the spectral reflectance and agronomic characteristics of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) were determined through field experiments. Spectral reflectance was measured during the 1979 and 1980 growing seasons with a spectroradiometer. Agronomic data included total leaf N concentration, leaf chlorophyll concentration, stage of development, leaf area index (LAI), plant moisture, and fresh and dry phytomass. Nitrogen deficiency caused increased visible, reduced near infrared, and increased middle infrared reflectance. These changes were related to lower levels of chlorophyll and reduced leaf area in the N-deficient plots. Green LAI, an important descriptor of wheat canopies, could be reliably estimated with multispectral data. The potential of remote sensing in distinguishing stressed from healthy crops is demonstrated. Evidence suggests multispectral imagery may be useful for monitoring crop condition.

Hinzman, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Implications of Climate Mitigation for Future Agricultural Production

Climate change is projected to negatively impact biophysical agricultural productivity in much of the world. Actions taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate future climate changes, are thus of central importance for agricultural production. Climate impacts are, however, not unidirectional; some crops in some regions (primarily higher latitudes) are projected to benefit, particularly if increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is assumed to strongly increase crop productivity at large spatial and temporal scales. Climate mitigation measures that are implemented by reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations lead to reductions both in the strength of climate change and in the benefits of carbon dioxide fertilization. Consequently, analysis of the effects of climate mitigation on agricultural productivity must address not only regions for which mitigation is likely to reduce or even reverse climate damages. There are also regions that are likely to see increased crop yields due to climate change, which may lose these added potentials under mitigation action. Comparing data from the most comprehensive archive of crop yield projections publicly available, we find that climate mitigation leads to overall benefits from avoided damages at the global scale and especially in many regions that are already at risk of food insecurity today. Ignoring controversial carbon dioxide fertilization effects on crop productivity, we find that for the median projection aggressive mitigation could eliminate approximately 81% of the negative impacts of climate change on biophysical agricultural productivity globally by the end of the century. In this case, the benefits of mitigation typically extend well into temperate regions, but vary by crop and underlying climate model projections. Should large benefits to crop yields from carbon dioxide fertilization be realized, the effects of mitigation become much more mixed, though still positive globally and beneficial in many food insecure countries.

Mueller, Christoph↗

NASA NTRS2017

Early Season Large-Area Winter Crop Mapping Using MODIS NDVI Data, Growing Degree Days Information and a Gaussian Mixture Model

Knowledge on geographical location and distribution of crops at global, national and regional scales is an extremely valuable source of information applications. Traditional approaches to crop mapping using remote sensing data rely heavily on reference or ground truth data in order to train/calibrate classification models. As a rule, such models are only applicable to a single vegetation season and should be recalibrated to be applicable for other seasons. This paper addresses the problem of early season large-area winter crop mapping using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time-series and growing degree days (GDD) information derived from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) product. The model is based on the assumption that winter crops have developed biomass during early spring while other crops (spring and summer) have no biomass. As winter crop development is temporally and spatially non-uniform due to the presence of different agro-climatic zones, we use GDD to account for such discrepancies. A Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is applied to discriminate winter crops from other crops (spring and summer). The proposed method has the following advantages: low input data requirements, robustness, applicability to global scale application and can provide winter crop maps 1.5-2 months before harvest. The model is applied to two study regions, the State of Kansas in the US and Ukraine, and for multiple seasons (2001-2014). Validation using the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Data Layer (CDL) for Kansas and ground measurements for Ukraine shows that accuracies of greater than 90% can be achieved in mapping winter crops 1.5-2 months before harvest. Results also show good correspondence to official statistics with average coefficients of determination R(exp. 2) greater than 0.85.

mixture model↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recoveries of Oil and Hydrolyzed Sugars from Corn Germ Meal by Hydrothermal Pretreatment: A Model Feedstock for Lipid-Producing Energy Crops

Vegetable oil is extracted from oil rich seeds, such as soybeans. Genetic engineering of green plants to accumulate oil in vegetative tissue is a future source of oil that promises increased land productivity and the use of marginal lands. However, the low concentration of lipids in current engineered plant biomass samples makes the oil extraction process challenging and expensive. In this study, liquid hot water (LHW) pretreatment was investigated to enhance oil recovery from the solids and increase enzymatic hydrolysis efficiency of such feedstocks. Corn germ meal was chosen as a model feedstock representing lipid-producing energy crops. Germ meal was pretreated at 160 and 180 °C for 10 and 15 min at 20% w/w solids loading. Enzymatic hydrolysis on the pretreated solid was performed. After pretreatment, the oil concentration increased by 2.2 to 4.2 fold. The most severe pretreatment condition of LHW, at 180 °C for 15 min, gave the maximum oil concentration (9.7%, w/w), the highest triacylglycerol (TAG) content of the extracted oil (71.6%), and the highest conversions of glucose and xylose (99.0% and 32.8%, respectively). This study demonstrates that the optimal pretreatment condition for corn germ meal is 180 °C LHW for 15 min. Pretreatment improves lipids recovery from oil bearing biomass with little or no effect on the lipid profile.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

DayCent MUVP model calibrated for the simulation of bioenergy crops grown on set-aside land in the US

DayCent MUVP version (Methanogenesis, UV litter degradation and Photosynthesis). DAYCENT is the daily time-step version of the CENTURY biogeochemical model (Parton et al., 1994). DAYCENT simulates fluxes of C and N among the atmosphere, vegetation, and soil (Del Grosso et al., 2001a; Parton et al., 1998). Key submodels include soil water content and temperature by layer, plant production and allocation of net primary production (NPP), decomposition of litter and soil organic matter, mineralization of nutrients, N gas emissions from nitrification and denitrification, and CH4 oxidation in non-saturated soils.

biogeochemical model↗