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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1998

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

A New, Highly Improved Two-Cycle Engine

The figure presents a cross-sectional view of a supercharged, variable-compression, two-cycle, internal-combustion engine that offers significant advantages over prior such engines. The improvements are embodied in a combination of design changes that contribute synergistically to improvements in performance and economy. Although the combination of design changes and the principles underlying them are complex, one of the main effects of the changes on the overall engine design is reduced (relative to prior two-cycle designs) mechanical complexity, which translates directly to reduced manufacturing cost and increased reliability. Other benefits include increases in the efficiency of both scavenging and supercharging. The improvements retain the simplicity and other advantages of two-cycle engines while affording increases in volumetric efficiency and performance across a wide range of operating conditions that, heretofore have been accessible to four-cycle engines but not to conventionally scavenged two-cycle ones, thereby increasing the range of usefulness of the two-cycle engine into all areas now dominated by the four-cycle engine. The design changes and benefits are too numerous to describe here in detail, but it is possible to summarize the major improvements: Reciprocating Shuttle Inlet Valve The entire reciprocating shuttle inlet valve and its operating gear is constructed as a single member. The shuttle valve is actuated in a lost-motion arrangement in which, at the ends of its stroke, projections on the shuttle valve come to rest against abutments at the ends of grooves in a piston skirt. This shuttle-valve design obviates the customary complex valve mechanism, actuated from an engine crankshaft or camshaft, yet it is effective with every type of two-cycle engine, from small high-speed single cylinder model engines, to large low-speed multiple cylinder engines.

Wiesen, Bernard↗
NASA NTRS2010

Polar Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radioheliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approximately 250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Gopalswamy, N.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Chromospheric Signatures of the Subdued Cycle 23/24 Solar Minimum in Microwaves

Coronal holes appear brighter than the quiet Sun in microwave images, with a brightness enhancement of 500 to 2000 K. The brightness enhancement corresponds to the upper chromosphere, where the plasma temperature is about 10000 K. We constructed a microwave butterfly diagram using the synoptic images obtained by the Nobeyama radio-heliograph (NoRH) showing the evolution of the polar and low latitude brightness temperature. While the polar brightness reveals the chromospheric conditions, the low latitude brightness is attributed to active regions in the corona. When we compared the microwave butterfly diagram with the magnetic butterfly diagram, we found a good correlation between the microwave brightness enhancement and the polar field strength. The microwave butterfly diagram covers part of solar cycle 22, whole of cycle 23, and part of cycle 24, thus enabling comparison between the cycle 23/24 and cycle 22/23 minima. The microwave brightness during the cycle 23/24 minimum was found to be lower than that during the cycle 22/23 minimum by approx.250 K. The reduced brightness temperature is consistent with the reduced polar field strength during the cycle 23/24 minimum seen in the magnetic butterfly diagram. We suggest that the microwave brightness at the solar poles is a good indicator of the speed of the solar wind sampled by Ulysses at high latitudes.

Yashiro, S.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Transmutations Observed from Pressure Cycling Palladium Silver Metals with Deuterium Gas

Hydrogen, deuterium, and helium gases were separately cycled through a Johnson-Mattheypurifier containing coiled palladium silver alloy tubing: Pd25Ag (75 wt% Pd and 25 wt% Ag).During the cycling of D2 gas, evidence of anomalous heat production was observed. However,during the cycling of H2 and He,very little (H2) or no (He) unusual heat events were observed.After cycling the D2 gas through the coiled tubing for several months, Pd25Ag samples showedan increase in Cu and Fe compared with the amounts in unexposed Pd25Ag. Chromium,manganese, and zinc were detected in gas-cycled Pd25Ag samples, whereas they were notdetected in unexposed Pd25Ag samples. In particular, Zn was present in the gas-cycled Pd25Agmaterial in larger quantities than either Cr or Mn. Although a small amount of Cu was present inthe Pd25Ag coil before the D2 gas cycling, 7 times more was present after the cycling. Multiplematerial characterization techniques were used to obtain both pre-test and post-test elementalcomposition. The results indicate that novel post-test elements, primarily on the surface, werecreated by unknown nuclear mechanisms at low energy.

Gustave C Fralick↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Disorder to Order in Interface Patterns: Thermal Noise to Limit Cycle Transition in Dendrite Sidebranch Formation

Thin sample directional solidification experiments have been carried out in the model succinonitrile-camphor system to examine the origin of secondary branches in dendrite morphologies. Thermal noise at the dendrite tip creates interface instabilities which amplify to form sidebranches. This is accepted as the primary mode of sidebranching in dendritic growth from an undercooled melt and occurs in directional solidification of dendrites. The proposed limit cycle couples the growth of the tip with the initiation of the sidebranch. Directional solidification of curved interfaces is a driven dissipative system with the potential to form a limit cycle. Two sets of experiments were performed, the first holding velocity constant and evolving the gradient and the second imposing oscillating velocities around the natural period of sidebranching. Both experimental methods were found to characterize a transition from disordered sidebranching induced by thermal noise to ordered sidebranching produced by the limit cycle mechanisms. This is the first quantitative measurement of previously hypothesized limit cycle growth. These experiment sets have been quantitatively analyzed for dynamic behavior seen in limit cycles. High-quality data sets of the tip and instability enable the measurement of the FFT and analysis through a power spectrum. At low gradients, the sidebranches are found to be excited by thermal noise far away from the tip. As the gradient increases and velocity is held constant, the distance between the instability and tip decreases until limit cycle growth is found between the tip of the primary dendrite and the first forming sidebranch. An alternative to the deterministic limit cycles seen in experiments of gradient evolution is a limit cycle actively driven through the square wave oscillation of velocity. Crucial observations of the solidified microstructure conclude that this produced periodic interconnected bridges between the primary dendrites. This is a finding with potentially significant implications for commercial applications.

Trevor Lyons↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact on Cycle Efficiency of Small CHP Plants from Increasing Firing Temperature Enabled by AM of Turbine Blades

Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems are gaining popularity because of their potential for high overall thermodynamic efficiency and increased need for distributed power generation. Most CHP systems include a gas turbine for electricity generation and a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG) for steam generation. The steam can be used to power a steam turbine for additional electricity generation or to drive rotating equipment, for space heating, for absorption chillers, etc. A CHP cycle configuration is often driven by the ‘principal’ utility for the facility that it services; steam or electricity. In either case, performance improvements in the gas turbine have the potential to increase the steam and power output from the cycle, which is a direct result of improvements in the gas turbine efficiency and power output. One possible opportunity to improve an existing gas turbine’s performance is to increase the firing temperature with improved turbine cooling and increased compression ratio.<br>In this study, the impact on CHP cycle performance from increasing the turbine firing temperature by 100 °C and improving the turbine blade cooling for a 6-MW scale gas turbine is estimated using an analytical cooled gas turbine model and a steam cycle model. A sensitivity analysis was performed to understand the impact of increasing the internal cooling effectiveness, thermal barrier coating performance and blade material upgrades on gas turbine and CHP cycle efficiency. The impacts of turbine blade cooling improvements were studied for three common CHP cycle configurations identified from the literature. Various definitions for CHP cycle efficiency from the literature are used in the comparisons. The results showed that a 100 °C increase in firing temperature can increase the gas turbine efficiency by 1 percentage point without improving cooling effectiveness and add 2 additional percentage points in efficiency by using advanced turbine blades with higher internal cooling efficiency. Studied engine upgrades showed potential for increasing the CHP cycle efficiency by 3 percentage points while increasing the steam generation rate by 8%.<br>

Uysal, Selcuk Can↗
DOE OSTI2020

Life-Cycle Baseline Customization for the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20304

One of the responsibilities of the federal government is to estimate sound and defensible life-cycle baseline costs for use in federal budget estimates and to meet federal financial reporting requirements. To accomplish this, the US Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Legacy Management (LM) and the US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) have partnered together to ensure that the liabilities documented in each Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP) site's life-cycle baseline are specifically tailored. FUSRAP was created in the mid-1970's to clean up radiological contamination resulting from the early development of nuclear weapons. DOE was responsible for FUSRAP until October 1997, when Congress transferred the administration and execution of FUSRAP site cleanups to USACE. By 1997, DOE had completed the cleanup of 25 of the 46 sites that were active within the program and had begun cleanup at 13 additional sites. USACE was assigned responsibility for the cleanup of the 21 remaining FUSRAP sites, and at 8 additional sites that had since been referred for cleanup. The LM mission for the FUSRAP sites is to perform long-term surveillance and maintenance (LTS and M). Currently, LM provides long-term stewardship for 34 completed FUSRAP sites. Another 20 sites are under active remediation by USACE. Within the last 5 years, USACE has completed the cleanup at five FUSRAP sites and the LTS and M responsibility has been transferred to LM. By 2029, USACE will compete remediation at eight additional sites and LTS and M for those sites will transfer to LM. Because responsibilities for the FUSRAP sites transfer between USACE and LM upon completion of remedial actions, both agencies maintain life-cycle baselines for different stages of the project and both must have a strong understanding of the needs and requirements for each site. This understanding ensures that the life-cycle baselines form a complete and accurate picture of what is required for the site and for the FUSRAP program. LM focuses on several things when customizing the life-cycle baseline estimates for the FUSRAP sites, including (1) Understanding the unique requirements for each site. By reviewing site-specific documents prepared by USACE, such as Feasibility Studies and Records of Decision, and partnering with USACE to gain additional insight about site conditions and requirements for stewardship, as well as potential risks, LM can better develop the life-cycle baselines. (2) Developing site-specific labor breakdowns. This ensures the required labor mix is baselined for specific activities by comparing the labor mix required to perform activities at (a) other LM-managed FUSRAP sites and (b) non-FUSRAP LM sites and (c) by USACE at active FUSRAP sites. (3) Taking a tiered approach to life-cycle baseline planning. Estimates for sites transferring to LM in the near term (5 years) are more definitive than for sites transferring in the out-year period. Remedial actions at the near-term sites are at or near completion, providing LM a strong understanding of the LTS and M requirements and remaining liabilities. This in turn allows for site-specific customization of the baseline. (4) Using a robust risk management approach to ensure that liabilities specific to each site are identified, evaluated by probability and severity, and documented in relation to the impact to cost or schedule. To ensure the most accuracy within all the baselines, the FUSRAP life-cycle baselines are updated as needed to support program, project, and contract management needs. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning for rapid prediction of lithium-ion battery-cycling protocols

Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. Here, by combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Transient-Response methodology based on experiments and modeling for Cu-Redox Half-Cycle kinetic analysis on a Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalyst

In this report the Standard SCR reaction catalyzed by Cu-SSZ-13 is a redox process consisting of a reduction half cycle (RHC) and an oxidation half cycle (OHC) that cycle the active Cu sites between the Cu(II) and Cu(I) states. In the current work, a transient-response methodology consisting of experimental transient response Cu-redox (TRCR) measurements and kinetic modeling was developed for detailed study of individual SCR Cu-redox half cycles. The TRCR protocol allows quantification of the reducible Cu density, Cu(II)-Cu(I) partitioning, relative native RHC and OHC rates, and limiting half cycle during SCR. The half-cycle kinetics are studied over a wide (170–450 °C) temperature, and in differential segments along the catalyst length using spatially resolved capillary inlet mass-spectrometry (SpaciMS). The protocol alone provides two independent measures indicating that OHC increases faster than RHC with temperature, and that at all but the lowest temperature SCR is RHC limited. Introducing the transient kinetic models allows half-cycle reaction pathways, orders and activation energies to be studied and determined; e.g., RHC involves surface and gas-phase NH 3 routes, and OHC with O 2 involves dimer formation. Application of the full methodology provides further confirmation and quantification of the protocol conclusions, and specifically the first measurements of RHC and OHC activation energies; specifically for parallel RHC surface and gas-phase routes, and experimentally obtained OHC activation energy vs. first-principle calculations in the literature. Beyond insights related to the degreened catalyst studied here, the methodology provides a broadly available approach for quantifying how aging processes selectively impact RHC and OHC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of pressure cycling and compression rate on the bcc-hcp transition in an FeNi alloy

Here, we investigate the body-centered cubic (bcc) to hexagonal close-packed (hcp) phase transition in Fe-10wt. %Ni alloy, combining pressure cycling and fast compression with time-resolved synchrotron x-ray diffraction in a dynamic diamond anvil cell. Three pressure cycles were conducted with compression rates ranging from 0.1 to nearly 10 3 GPa/s. During the first cycle with the slowest compression, the observed orientations in the bcc and hcp phases are consistent with the Burgers mechanism, followed by c-axis rotation of the hcp phase consistent with {$10$ $\bar{1}2$} twinning. During the following cycles with fast compression at 10 2 –10 3 GPa/s, the hcp phase exhibits negligible c-axis rotation with a nearly constant c/a ratio of ∼1.61 up to ∼30 GPa, indicating suppression of plastic deformation (especially, twinning) due to sample confinement from the gasket. Notably, the onset pressure of the transition decreases with additional pressure cycling and faster compression, which normally leads to over-pressurization. This suggests that defects or shear induced from the pressure cycling reduces the transition kinetics even during fast compression. These insights into the deformation and transition behavior in an FeNi alloy under multiple dynamic loading cycles can offer guidance for future design of advanced structural alloys and improve our understanding of planetary core processes.

FeNi alloy↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nutrient limitation shapes functional traits of mycorrhizal fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria across an elevation gradient

In nutrient-limited high-elevation ecosystems, plants rely on arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi to provide mineral phosphorus (P) in the form of phosphate (PO43-). AM fungi gather these nutrients from phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs) that can mineralize PO43- from organic matter and solubilize mineral-bound P. How climate, soil factors, and nutrient limitation influence AM fungi and PCB assembly remains unclear. We collected soil from montane meadows across a 1,000-m elevation gradient on three replicate mountainsides and analyzed AM fungal marker genes, P-cycling genes from shotgun metagenomes, and edaphic measurements. High-elevation soils had nearly 50-fold less soil PO₄³⁻ and 60% more AM fungal hyphae than low-elevation soils. AM fungal turnover was linked to changes in pH, organic carbon, and PO₄³-. The composition of 198 P-cycling genes was influenced by the AM fungal community structure. Drivers of individual PCB functional genes, including pH and organic carbon, varied with gene phylogeny. We found a trade-off in P-cycling strategies across elevation: P-rich, low-elevation soils supported root-colonizing AM fungi and organic P-mineralizing bacteria. P-poor, high-elevation soils were dominated by stress-tolerant AM fungi and mineral P-solubilizing bacteria. Our results suggest that AM fungi and PCB community turnover across elevation are both shaped by pH, organic carbon, and P availability. With continued climate warming, the structure and function of mountaintop ecosystems might shift to resemble lower elevations, disrupting long-established and specialized microbial assemblages, with consequences for P-cycling dynamics and the total P available to plant communities.IMPORTANCEPhosphorus (P) limits plant productivity in high-elevation ecosystems, yet the microbial networks that mobilize P, including arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and phosphorus-cycling bacteria (PCBs), remain under-characterized in these nutrient-poor soils. We show that across a 10,00-m elevation gradient, AM fungi and P-cycling gene assemblages shift predictably with pH, organic carbon, and phosphate availability. Higher elevations, with less available P, select for stress-tolerant AM fungal taxa and PCB strategies geared toward mineral solubilization, while low-elevation sites favor root colonization by AM fungi and organic P mineralization. These results suggest that nutrient limitation can constrain microbial community assembly in consistent ways across landscapes. High mountain soils are low in P and rely on a network of underground AM fungi and PCB to deliver nutrients to plants. This study shows how those underground relationships reorganize with elevation and how climate change could collapse long-standing microbial strategies by pushing high-elevation ecosystems toward lowland conditions. As soils warm and dry, the microbial scaffolding that supports alpine plant life may become increasingly unstable.

arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparative Life Cycle Analysis of Scalable Single-Junction and Tandem Perovskite Solar Cell (PSC) Systems

Efficient, low-cost solar cells based upon perovskites have the potential to transform the US and global energy portfolio and improve energy security if they can be manufactured in an environmentally sustainable manner. However, previous life cycle analyses (LCA) of perovskite solar cells (PSC) used lab recipes to project the environmental impact of industrial PSC production – using materials and processes that may not be representative of industrial productions due to high material waste and complex synthesis – and such studies were limited to a few single-junction technologies. Thus, the goal of this project was threefold: a) to review the most promising for industrial production single-junction and tandem PSC technologies, b) to build life-cycle materials inventories that reflect scalable production of these technologies, and c) to conduct comprehensive life-cycle analysis of these technologies and compare their environmental impact with those of established commercial technologies. In response, this project identified challenges for fabrication transitioning from laboratory to sustainable industrial production, developed life-cycle inventory (LCI) data for scaling to industrial production four promising single-junction and three tandem PSC systems and produced life-cycle-investigations using, as metrics, a complete spectrum of energy, environmental and ecological impact indicators. Special focus was given to the use of lead, silver and indium in PSC. The project used the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology as standardized by the Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), ISO standards 14040 and 14044, and the International Energy Agency PVPS Task 12 LCA guidelines. LCA allows the calculation of a number of energy and environmental and impact categories, including energy cumulative energy demand (CED), global warming potential (GWP), human toxicity potential (HTP), eco-toxicity potential (ETP), abiotic resource depletion potential (ADP), acidification potential (AP), ozone depletion potential (ODP), photochemical oxidation potential (POP), eutrophication potential (EP). In addition to those, we calculated the Energy Pay-Back Time (EPBT) and the Energy Return On Investment (EROI). We provide LCA impacts for complete perovskite PV systems – including balance of system components – installed at three irradiation levels and considering reference and future potential module efficiencies. Finally, a sensitivity analysis on perovskite lifetime has been performed, considering 10, 20 and 30 years. Contribution analysis of the impacts of each material and layer of PSC shows, that the use of Pb in metalorganic PSC does not result in significant environmental impacts as the major contributions to environmental indicators arise from the use of Ag and encapsulation materials. Solution-based PSC manufacturing was found to be less impactful to the environment than vapor-based fabrication, and roll-to-roll (RtR) printing uses less energy and generates the lowest emissions. PSC produced with RtR manufacturing could reach the same Energy Return on Energy Investment (EROI) as that of crystalline-Si PV within 12 years of life, whereas the most energy demanding spray coating on rigid substrates, would require a 20-yr life to match the EROI of 30-yr lasting silicon PV. This work lays the foundation for sustainability investigations in a comparative context of large-scale production and deployment of PSC. The results of this project have the potential to have a significant impact on the future of PV manufacturing, by providing industry, policy-makers, and academia with insights necessary to choose which, if any, lead-based solar cell life cycles are environmentally sustainable.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrating the Safety Evaluation for a Molten Salt Reactor Operation and Fuel Cycle Facility Application

Molten salt reactor (MSR) sites may include additional elements of the nuclear fuel cycle beyond those of the existing fleet. In the existing fleet, the individual elements of the fuel cycle typically have been located on different sites and licensed separately. Providing robust separation between hazards remains a useful safety practice for MSRs. Although the different elements of the fuel cycle at a nuclear site that includes MSRs may transfer material between processes more frequently than prior practices, providing adequate separation between distinct facilities avoids the potential for adverse interactions. Additionally, some elements of the MSR fuel cycle, such as fuel salt preparation or waste stabilization, may be more efficient to share among multiple nearby reactors, and nuclear sites that include MSRs may also include other reactor classes. Hence, discrete MSR fuel cycle facilities located at a common site could be physically separated with robust barriers—albeit potentially connected by piping—and licensed individually. This report describes the hazards of individual elements of representative MSR fuel cycle facilities, including their relationship to overall site level hazards. The report maps the regulatory compliance aspects of the individual MSR fuel cycle elements (e.g., fuel salt preparation, reactor, waste stabilization) to existing and developing regulations, as well as describes current and developing site-level regulations from an MSR perspective.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Future of the North American Carbon Cycle: Chapter - 19

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, primarily due to fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, are expected to continue to drive changes in both climate and the terrestrial and ocean carbon cycles. Over the past two-to-three decades, there has been considerable effort to understand how terrestrial and oceanic systems behave (in response to rising atmospheric CO2 and changing climate conditions), quantify the dynamics of system responses to environmental change, and project how the ocean and terrestrial carbon cycle will interact with, and influence, future atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate. In this presentation, we will summarize key findings related to projected changes to the North American carbon cycle and drivers and associated consequences of these changes, as reported in Chapter 19 of the Second State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-2). The findings not only capture projections of emissions from fossil fuel and changes in land cover and land use, but also highlight the decline in future carbon uptake capacity of North American carbon reservoirs and soil carbon losses from the Northern high-latitudes. Such a discussion of future carbon cycle changes is new in SOCCR-2, yet timely. It underlines the progress made since the release of the First State of the Carbon Cycle Report (SOCCR-1) in 2007 in identifying the vulnerability of key carbon pools and their co-evolution with changing climatic conditions. We will also discuss key knowledge gaps and outline a set of future research priorities, including both monitoring and modeling activities, that are necessary to improve projections of future changes to the North American carbon cycle and associated adaptation and resource-management decisions.

North America↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Early Prediction of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 25

A “Solar Dynamo” (SODA) Index prediction of the amplitude of Solar Cycle 25 is described. The SODA Index combines values of the solar polar magnetic field and the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm to create a precursor of future solar activity. The result is an envelope of solar activity that minimizes the 11-year period of the sunspot cycle. We show that the variation in time of the SODA Index is similar to several wavelet transforms of the solar spectral irradiance at 10.7 cm. Polar field predictions for Solar Cycles 21 – 24 are used to show the success of the polar field precursor in previous sunspot cycles. Using the present value of the SODA index, we estimate that the next cycle’s smoothed peak activity will be about 140 ± 30 solar flux units for the 10.7 cm radio flux and a Version 2 sunspot number of 135 ± 25. This suggests that Solar Cycle 25 will be comparable to Solar Cycle 24. The estimated peak is expected to occur near 2025.2 ± 1.5 year. Because the current approach uses data prior to solar minimum, these estimates may improve as the upcoming solar minimum draws closer.

Solar Cycle Predictions↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

Trends↗
NASA NTRS2019

An Analysis of the Strayton Engine, a Brayton and Stirling Cycle Recuperating Engine

This paper explores the novel Strayton engine concept. This engine combines the cycles of a Brayton engine with that of a Stirling engine to create a highly efficient recuperating gas turbine engine. In the explored case, both Brayton cycle and Stirling cycle engines are used to generate electrical power. Additionally, the Stirling engine is used to draw heat out of the Brayton turbine (acting to cool the turbine blades), while also pumping heat into Brayton cycle just before combustion occurs (acting as the mechanism for recuperation). The purpose of this paper is to detail the system level modeling techniques used to generate the simulation, perform a cycle analysis of the combined cycle engine, identify key technologies and challenges associated with the concept, and compare potential performance gains with existing gas turbine engines and internal combustion engines. Topics such as controls, blade cooling effects, engine weight, and heat transfer using heat pipe are also explored. Results from this work show potential architectures that could provide the required heat transfer rates, potential control strategies, and performance benefits, including efficiency gains between 10% and 3% on engines ranging from 200HP to 670HP with the combined cycle engine.

Gas turbine engine↗