Results for “DECISION” — Page 17

NASA NTRS2017

NASA Wrangler: Automated Cloud-Based Data Assembly in the RECOVER Wildfire Decision Support System

NASA Wrangler is a loosely-coupled, event driven, highly parallel data aggregation service designed to take advantageof the elastic resource capabilities of cloud computing. Wrangler automatically collects Earth observational data, climate model outputs, derived remote sensing data products, and historic biophysical data for pre-, active-, and post-wildfire decision making. It is a core service of the RECOVER decision support system, which is providing rapid-response GIS analytic capabilities to state and local government agencies. Wrangler reduces to minutes the time needed to assemble and deliver crucial wildfire-related data.

decision support↗

NASA NTRS2019

Tactical Scientific Decision-Making during Crewed Astrobiology Mars Missions

The limitations placed upon human explorers on the surface of Mars will necessitate a methodology for scientific exploration that is different from standard approaches to terrestrial fieldwork and prior crewed exploration of the Moon. In particular, the data transmission limitations and communication latency between Earth and Mars create a unique situation for surface crew in contact with a terrestrial science team. The BASALT research program simulated a series of extravehicular activities (EVAs) in Mars analog terrains under various Mars-relevant bandwidth and latency conditions to investigate how best to approach this problem. Here we discuss tactical decision-making under these conditions, that is, how the crew on Mars interacts with a team of scientists and support personnel on Earth to collect samples of maximum scientific interest. We describe the strategies, protocols, and tools tested in BASALT EVAs and give recommendations on how best to conduct human exploration of Mars with support from Earth-based scientists. We find that even with scientists supporting them, the crew performing the exploration must be trained in the appropriate scientific disciplines in order to provide the terrestrial scientists with enough information to make decisions, but that with appropriate planning and structure, and tools such as a ‘‘dynamic leaderboard,’’ terrestrial scientists can add scientific value to an EVA, even under Mars communication latency

Decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLINICAL DECISION SUPPORT: PATH TO FUNCTIONAL REQUIREMENTS

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Supporting Crew Medical Decisions on Deep Space Missions: A Real-Time Performance Monitoring

Crewed missions into deep space will require astronauts to respond autonomously to safety- and time-critical anomalies. These and other potential issues will require the continuous monitoring and recognition of potentially subtle, but complex, anomalous data patterns. NASA continues to investigate real-time metrics for Extravehicular Operations1 and for providing feedback to improve performance2. Since it is unknown how long-term exposure to deep space will affect crew health, continuous monitoring of clinical and subclinical status is warranted. NASA is characterizing crew medical decision-support needs and identifying the recommended requirements of a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) within the Exploration Medical Capability Element (ExMC) of the Human Research Program3. Early detection, and continuous monitoring, of performance may provide an effective prognostic capability for assessing crew health state, and the identified requirements could be provided for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as an assistant for delivering optimal health and performance and medical care during exploration missions. There is evidence to suggest that automatic, unobtrusive collection of keystroke features, such as alphanumeric key latencies, backspaces or typing rhythm, could be a valuable performance screening tool. Keystroke features show significant differences between control subjects and patients with overt clinical illness, such as multiple sclerosis4 and Parkinson’s disease5, as well as behavioral health and performance issues, such as mild cognitive impairment6 and depression7. This work is exploring a capability for the assessment of early task performance decline in crew as they perform daily activities. Timestamped keyboard entries are continuously collected and stored. Nominal keystroke interactions are compared to those obtained after exposure to spaceflight stressors, e.g., fatigue, to determine the methods sensitivity. This work will pave the way toward an objective detection tool that may be deployed in a spaceflight setting.

clinical↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Clinical Decision Support: Path to Functional Requirements

Long-duration, deep-space exploration missions present significant challenges to crew health and performance. These challenges include the individual and combined effects of microgravity, radiation exposure, isolation, limited resources (mass, volume, power, data and crew time), limited options for evacuation and those associated with delayed or constrained communications, all of which demand greater crew autonomy. Specifically, as the communication delays intensify the further we explore space, the unqualified need for Earth-independent medical operations focused on autonomous diagnosis, treatment and prevention will be key to mission continuation and success. To augment the requisite knowledge, skills and abilities (KSAs) of a time-constrained crew operating under stressful conditions, combatting fatigue, and facing a potential medical crisis, a robust clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a probable solution that would facilitate, guide and inform Earth-independent medical operations, while assisting crewmembers through various clinical presentations. The Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element of the Human Research Program (HRP) is expanding the boundaries of space medical systems to advance the care of astronauts on future exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. ExMC is actively identifying and testing next-generation medical care and crew health maintenance technologies. The Clinical Decision Support (CDS) project addresses gap Medical-701 within the Inflight Medical Conditions risk: “Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.” Though mass, volume, and power will face increasing constraints, the projected computational capabilities of spacecraft systems will increase exponentially as information technology continues to advance this decade and beyond. Hence, data, software and computational resources will play an essential and synergistic role in maintaining crew health, wellness and performance in deep space missions. The focus of the CDS project is to develop recommended requirements for an in-vehicle CDSS that acts as a ‘virtual assistant’ for delivering optimal health, performance and medical care during exploration missions. The CDSS is envisioned as an integrated, software-based tool deployed on a laptop computer or handheld device. The CDSS will assist the crew and ground support when interacting with knowledge/databases (e.g. records, pharmacy, schedule), instrumentation (e.g. imaging, physiological monitoring devices), and habitat (e.g. wellness system, task performance system) and vehicle systems (e.g. environmental system, communication system). In addition, the human interface will employ a context-based approach that accounts for the crew’s situation. Thus, extraneous and clinically/operationally non-relevant information are reduced to avoid an increase in cognitive load. The framework of an ideal spaceflight CDSS is to include core and advanced analytical features that incorporate work from collaborators yet maintain a flexible platform for integrating new technology in the future. In fiscal year 2021 (FY21), the CDS project identified requirements through two primary mechanisms: (i) the development of software implementation prototypes and (ii) the application of systems engineering processes. The CDS project developed and tested a series of increasingly complex system prototypes that were based on use cases derived from the CDSS concept of operations (ConOps). These software implementations yielded insights on CDSS functionality as well as lessons learned that provided the initial requirements for CDSS capability. By applying a systems engineering (SE) approach, medical scenarios provided in the ConOps and the use cases for software implementation underwent functional decomposition to identify CDSS functionality. Also, systems-based modeling language (SysML) tools such as activity diagrams were developed from the same ConOps and use cases to identify CDSS functionality. The lessons learned from software implementation defined both specific requirements and broad areas of requirements. Within these defined broad requirement areas, further analysis of the SE products identified specific capability that resulted in the final functional requirements. In summary, the software prototypes, functional decomposition of the ConOps and use cases, and SysML diagrams provided the basis for the CDSS requirements developed in FY21. In the upcoming year, these requirements will be refined for their final ExMC baseline review in latter FY22.

Clinical decision support↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Markov Decision Process based Trajectory Planning for UAVs under Uncertain Wind Conditions

In this paper we propose a Markov Decision Process (MDP) algorithm for path-planning of Unmanned Aviation Vehicles (UAVs) under varying wind conditions. Solutions to path-planning for UAVs are becoming increasingly necessary as autonomous UAVs continue to enter commercial and government spaces. Path-planning is inherently challenging, as UAVs needs to account for dynamically changing flying conditions such as weather, obstacle or no-fly zones, degraded vehicle health and off-nominal battery power consumption. Machine learning methods such as Markov Decision Process (MDPs) have the potential to revolutionize how vehicles navigate in such uncertain environments. Previous papers have demonstrated the use of MDPs to optimize UAV path-planning for energy consumption under time-varying wind distribution. In this study, UAV trajectories from a pre-determined waypoint to target cell, will be computed on a 7X7 grid environment by optimizing parameters for mission assurance and safety limits in addition to the energy consumption, and operation time. The UAV navigates the grid by taking actions to move in either of the eight cardinal and intercardinal directions, under constant thrust profile. The next state of the UAV is calculated by considering its action, transition probability, obstacle cells and the wind speed magnitude and direction. Both constant and stochastic wind will be considered in this paper, the parameters being extracted from real wind measurements in proximity to an experimental UAV flight. One of the studies to be demonstrated in this paper is that as the unmanned airspace gets more complex with multiple vehicles and environmental uncertainties, trade-offs between energy consumption, operation time, risk tolerance, and mission assurance needs to be made. Further, MDPs are capable of fast computation of UAV trajectories under varying wind, hence making them suitable for in-flight path planners.

decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Dissertation Defense: Three Papers on Organizational Decision-Making and Change at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

This is a three-paper dissertation that responds to a call for empirical research on stakeholder influence in the implementation of evaluation recommendations. The literature is consistent but mostly theoretical: stakeholder participation should positively influence and increase the probability of implementation (see e.g., Christie, 2011; Cousins & Earl, 1992; Fetterman, 2004). In response, I use two Goddard Space Flight Center engineering technical training and development programs to build a causal argument supporting my proposition that stakeholder influence in the logic modeling process impacts organizational decision-making and change. I first introduce the logic modeling process as a tool to involve stakeholders in program and evaluation design (paper 1); then use the data collection process to implement the collaboratively constructed logic model outcomes (paper 2); and, finally, I triangulate the data using the Toal (2009) Evaluation Involvement Scale (paper 3). I do this to “increase the validity of the findings” (Noble & Heale, 2019, p. 67) and to garner potential mechanisms. I found that stakeholder participation in the logic modeling process positively influenced the use of data to inform recommendations which in turn positively influenced implementation of evaluation recommendations. I identified the process itself as the mechanism and the key decision points as links or influencers. Potential factors included power and interest (measured by role) and time-on-job.

organizational decision-making↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team Clinical Decision Support Market Survey

NASA’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) has identified Clinical Decision Support (CDS) technology as a critical need for future human space exploration. Such technology will support real time diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment of spaceflight medical conditions. The need for such tools and support systems is critical for in-mission clinical decision-making, especially when Earth-based support is unavailable due to communication delays or blackouts. Supporting technologies may or may not involve Artificial Intelligence (AI), and would support astronaut crew with minimal clinical training, or even those with advanced training if they are, for example, in need of a refresher, experiencing multiple stressors, or temporarily overloaded with tasking. This need traces to the Development of Earth Independent Operations Technologies for NASA’s Mars Campaign Office. The CDS Market Survey purpose, methods, outcomes thus far, and near-term steps will be discussed.

Decision support↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overcoming barriers to improved decision-making for battery deployment in the clean energy transition

Decarbonization plans depend on the rapid, large-scale deployment of batteries to sufficiently decarbonize the electricity system and on-road transport. This can take many forms, shaped by technology, materials, and supply chain selection, which will have local and global environmental and social impacts. Current knowledge gaps limit the ability of decision-makers to make choices in facilitating battery deployment that minimizes or avoids unintended environmental and social consequences. These gaps include a lack of harmonized, accessible, and up-to-date data on manufacturing and supply chains and shortcomings within sustainability and social impact assessment methods, resulting in uncertainty that limits incorporation of research into policy making. These gaps can lead to unintended detrimental effects of large-scale battery deployment. To support decarbonization goals while minimizing negative environmental and social impacts, we elucidate current barriers to tracking how decision-making for large-scale battery deployment translates to environmental and social impacts and recommend steps to overcome them.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Feeding state-dependent neuropeptidergic modulation of reciprocally interconnected inhibitory neurons biases sensorimotor decisions in Drosophila

Abstract An animal’s feeding state changes its behavioral priorities and thus influences even nonfeeding-related decisions. How the feeding state information is transmitted to nonfeeding-related circuits and what circuit mechanisms are involved in biasing nonfeeding-related decisions remain open questions. By combining calcium imaging, neuronal manipulations, behavioral analysis and computational modeling, we determined that the competition between different aversive responses to mechanical cues is biased by changes in the feeding state. We found that this effect is achieved by the differential modulation of two different types of reciprocally connected inhibitory neurons promoting opposing actions. This modulation results in a more frequent active type of response and, less frequently, a protective type of response if larvae are fed sugar than when they are fed a balanced diet. Information about the internal state is conveyed to inhibitory neurons through homologs of the vertebrate neuropeptide Y, which is known to be involved in regulating feeding behavior.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Hosting downscaled decision-relevant community data products in ESGF2-US

As regionally-relevant high-resolution Earth system data is increasingly relied upon across scientific, policy, and practitioner communities, there is an urgent need for coordinated and federated infrastructure to store, manage, standardize, and distribute decision-relevant community data products. Substantial effort is required to ensure that these products, which are often critical for regional impact assessments and decision-making, are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable. The Earth System Grid Federation US project (ESGF2-US) is addressing this challenge by expanding its open-source, distributed platform to support the hosting and dissemination of downscaled Earth system datasets. This expansion includes aligning new downscaled datasets with developing community standards for metadata and file structure, consistent with existing ESGF archives. This includes ensuring CF-compliance, applying CMORization where appropriate, and developing tools to streamline user access. In this paper, we highlight the technical and coordination work required to bring downscaled data into ESGF2-US and aim to inform the broader Earth system data user community about the growing availability and utility of these curated resources.

ESGF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Revealing Decision Conservativeness Through Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization

This paper introduces Inverse Distributionally Robust Optimization (I-DRO) as a method to infer the conservativeness level of a decision-maker, represented by the size of a Wasserstein metric-based ambiguity set, from the optimal decisions made using Forward Distributionally Robust Optimization (F-DRO). By leveraging the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions of the convex F-DRO model, we formulate I-DRO as a bi-linear program, which can be solved using off-the-shelf optimization solvers. Additionally, this formulation exhibits several advantageous properties. We demonstrate that I-DRO not only guarantees the existence and uniqueness of an optimal solution but also establishes the necessary and sufficient conditions for this optimal solution to accurately match the actual conservativeness level in F-DRO. Furthermore, we identify three extreme scenarios that may impact I-DRO effectiveness. Our case study applies F-DRO for power system scheduling under uncertainty and employs I-DRO to recover the conservativeness level of system operators. Numerical experiments based on an IEEE 5-bus system and a realistic NYISO 11-zone system demonstrate I-DRO performance in both normal and extreme scenarios. An extended version of this paper with additional analyses is available at li2024revealing.

distributionally robust optimization↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Visualization Challenges in Decision Systems with Ensemble Data & Surrogate Models

Uncertainty visualization is a key component in translating important insights from ensemble simulation data into actionable decision-making by visually conveying various aspects of uncertainty within a system. With the recent advent of fast surrogate models trained on ensemble data, we can substitute computationally expensive simulations, which allows users to interact with more aspects of data spaces than ever before. However, the use of ensemble data with surrogate models in a decision-making tool brings up new challenges for uncertainty visualization, namely how to reconcile and communicate the new and different types of uncertainties brought in by surrogates and how to utilize these new data estimates in actionable ways. In this work, we examine these issues as they relate to high-dimensional data visualization, the integration of discrete datasets and the continuous representations of those datasets, and the unique difficulties associated with systems that allow users to iterate between input and output spaces. We assess the role of uncertainty visualization in facilitating intuitive and actionable interaction with ensemble data and surrogate models, and highlight key challenges in this new frontier of computational simulation.

ensemble data↗

DOE OSTI2025

Value of Information App (Value of Information App for Binary Geothermal Decisions and Binary Geothermal Possibilities) (Negative/Positive) [SWR-25-15]

Code base to run Streamlit Value of Information App for binary decision with geothermal techno economics. An open-source VOI app that models binary decisions (e.g. do something (drill) or walk away (do nothing)) and binary geothermal scenarios (positive or negative) has been developed. Users can input their anticipated economic values (profits or losses) directly into the value matrix to represent all four combinations of these actions and geothermal possibilities. VOI in general requires probabilities to be assigned for “probability of success”, or probability of experiencing a positive geothermal scenario versus negative. The users of the App can toggle this probability of success both in the demo problem and in the Value of Imperfect Information problem. The VOI App allows users to upload their own labeled data to evaluate how well it allows them to distinguish between positive versus negative sites. We have been using IGNENIOUS data to test and demonstrate; industry members have prepared their own labeled data, and have present their examples from diverse use cases at a conference workshop. The VOI App is open to the public at: https://voigeothermalrising.streamlit.app

Trainor-Guitton, Whitney [National Renewable Energ↗

DOE OSTI2026

ORCHID: Orchestrated Retrieval-Augmented Classification of High-Risk Property with Intelligent Decision-Making

High-Risk Property (HRP) classification is critical at U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) sites, where inventories include sensitive and often dual-use equipment. Compliance must track evolving rules designated by various export control policies to make transparent and auditable decisions. Traditional expert-only workflows are time-consuming, backlog-prone, and struggle to keep pace with shifting regulatory boundaries. We propose ORCHID, a modular agentic framework for HRP classification that pairs retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) with human oversight to produce policy based outputs that can be audited. Small cooperating agents—retrieval, description refiner, classifier, validator, and feedback logger—coordinate via agent-to-agent messaging and invoke tools through the Model Context Protocol (MCP) for model-agnostic on-premise operation. The interface follows an "Item to Evidence to Decision" loop with step-by-step reasoning, on-policy citations, and append-only audit bundles (run-cards, prompts, evidence). In preliminary tests on real HRP cases, ORCHID improves accuracy and traceability over a non-agentic baseline while deferring uncertain items to Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The demonstration shows single item submission, grounded citations, SME feedback capture, and exportable audit artifacts—illustrating a practical path to trustworthy LLM assistance in sensitive DOE compliance workflows.

Das, Sanjay [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000542591915)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Understanding Decision-Relevant Regional Data Products: Workshop Report

A broad community of climate adaptation practitioners, stakeholders and policymakers rely on historical reconstructions and future projections of local to regional climate. To be of value to these users, climate data must be credible, salient, and authoritative (Cash et al. 2002). Namely, data must be consistent with our physical understanding of the global Earth system, must be relevant for informing the decision-making process, and must be backed by expert judgment. As more and more data products have become available, multiple challenges have emerged around the production, evaluation, selection, and use of these data products. Consequently, to ensure crucial decisions leverage the best possible historical and future physical climate data, there is a pressing need to develop a coordinated national climate data strategy that is inclusive of all relevant communities of practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Decision Tree for Variable Selection vs. Impact on Durability for Biomass and Biochar Burial Pathways [Slides]

Quantifying durability for lower-TRL BiCRS pathways has been challenging as limited data are available from real-world projects and long-term experiments, resulting in an overall lack of scientific consensus. We develop a decision tree that aims to summarize the current scientific understanding and state-of-the-art project experience. The decision tree can be used to (1) guide the selection of key variables and evaluate their relative impact on durability, (2) identify data and knowledge gaps for future research.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing and Enabling Trustworthy Predictions for High-Consequence Decisions

Predictions from physics-based computational models provide critical information to inform high consequence decisions, e.g., engineering design decisions. The ability to assess the reliability of such predictions is therefore critical. However, to date, reliability assessment rely heavily on expert judgment and qualitative arguments. This report details the efforts of LDRD 233072 to develop quantitative methods to assess reliability of model predictions, especially in the context of simplifying assumptions that can impact their reliability.

42 ENGINEERING↗