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NASA NTRS2003

Long-Range Solar Activity Predictions: A Reprieve from Cycle #24's Activity

We discuss the field of long-range solar activity predictions and provide an outlook into future solar activity. Orbital predictions for satellites in Low Earth Orbit (LEO) depend strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in this regard, as the solar ultra-violet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) radiations inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Rather than concentrate on statistical, or numerical methods, we utilize a class of techniques (precursor methods) which is founded in physical theory. The geomagnetic precursor method was originally developed by the Russian geophysicist, Ohl, using geomagnetic observations to predict future solar activity. It was later extended to solar observations, and placed within the context of physical theory, namely the workings of the Sun s Babcock dynamo. We later expanded the prediction methods with a SOlar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) index. The SODA index is a measure of the buried solar magnetic flux, using toroidal and poloidal field components. It allows one to predict future solar activity during any phase of the solar cycle, whereas previously, one was restricted to making predictions only at solar minimum. We are encouraged that solar cycle #23's behavior fell closely along our predicted curve, peaking near 192, comparable to the Schatten, Myers and Sofia (1996) forecast of 182+/-30. Cycle #23 extends from 1996 through approximately 2006 or 2007, with cycle #24 starting thereafter. We discuss the current forecast of solar cycle #24, (2006-2016), with a predicted smoothed F10.7 radio flux of 142+/-28 (1-sigma errors). This, we believe, represents a reprieve, in terms of reduced fuel costs, etc., for new satellites to be launched or old satellites (requiring reboosting) which have been placed in LEO. By monitoring the Sun s most deeply rooted magnetic fields; long-range solar activity can be predicted. Although a degree of uncertainty in the long-range predictions remains, requiring future monitoring, we do not expect the next cycle's + 2-sigma value will rise significantly above solar cycle #23's activity level.

Richon, K.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Deep HRI Survey of Low-Mass PMS Stars in NGC 2264

Brian Patten is the Principal Investigator of the NASA ADP project 'A Deep HRI Survey of Low-Mass PMS Stars in NGC 2264'. This project was funded to support primarily the data reduction and analysis for new ROSAT data to be acquired in ROSAT AO8. For AO8 we were awarded two deep (100 ks) exposures with the ROSAT HRI instrument of a rotation and proper-motion selected sample of young (3 Myr - 15 Myr), low-mass, PMS stars in the populous star-forming region NGC 2264. These X-ray data were to be combined with an extensive rotation database for members of this cluster to allow us, for the first time, to probe the early evolution of magnetic dynamo activity for both fully convective stars and those stars found lower on the Hayashi tracks which have developed radiative cores. This database would have been used to study the interrelationship between coronal activity level, interior structure, and rotation rate as a function of mass and age.in the PMS and to define empirical constraints for theoretical models of angular momentum and magnetic dynamo evolution.

Patten, Brian↗
NASA NTRS2004

A Search for Coronal Emission at the Bottom of the Main-Sequence: Stars and Brown Dwarf Candidates with Spectral Types Later than M7 and the Rotation-Activity Relation

This program intended to test whether the lowest mass stars at the bottom end of the main sequence and the lower mass brown dwarfs have coronae. If they have coronae, what are the coronal characteristics and what drives them? In the classical dynamo picture, the closed magnetic loop structure is generated near the boundary of the convective envelope and the radiative core. Stars with mass below 0.30 Msun however are fully convective, and the nature of the dynamo responsible for the generation of the coronae in this regime is poorly understood. Previous results from the ROSAT mission (e.g., Fleming et al. 1993, 1995; Schmitt et al. 1995) had confirmed three very important characteristics of M-star coronae: (1) a very high percentage of all M dwarfs have coronae (of order 85% in the local 7 pc sample), (2) those M dwarfs showing high chromospheric activity, such as having the Balmer series in emission or large/numerous optical flaring, indeed exhibit the highest coronal activity, and (3) that the maximum saturation boundary in X-ray luminosity, which amounts to 0.0001-0.001 for Lx/Lbol for the dMe stars, extends down to the current detection limit, through spectral types M7. It was likely that the incompleteness noted for result (1) above was simply a detection limit problem; for more distant sources, the X-ray fainter dM stars will drop below detection thresholds before the more X-ray luminous dMe stars. The latest stars for which direct detection of the corona had been successful were of spectral type dM7 (e.g., VB8, LHS 3003). This program proposed to obtain ROSAT HRI observations for a large number of the coolest known (at that time) stars at the bottom of the main-sequence, which had spectral types of M9 or later. Three stars were approved for observations with ROSAT-HRI totaling 180 ksec. The goal was to obtain X-ray detections or low upper limits for the three approved stars.

Stringfellow, Guy↗
NASA NTRS2005

Mars Geological Province Designations for the Interpretation of GRS Data

Introduction: An overarching geologic theory, GEOMARS, coherently explains many otherwise anomalous aspects of the geological history of Mars. Premises for a theory of martian geologic evolution include: (1) Mars is a water-rich terrestrial planet, (2) terrestrial planets should evolve through progressive stages of dynamical history (accretion, differentiation, tectonism) and mantle convection (magma ocean, plate tectonism, stagnant lid), and (3) the early history of Earth affords an analogue to the evolution of Mars. The theory describes the following major stages of evolution for Mars (from oldest to youngest): Stage 1 - shortly after accretion, Mars differentiates to a liquid metallic core, a mantle boundary (MBL) of high-pressure silicate mineral phases, upper mantle, magma ocean, thin komatiic crust, and convecting steam atmosphere; Stage 2- Mars cools to condense its steam atmosphere and transform its mode of mantle convection to plate tectonism; subduction of waterrich oceanic crust initiates arc volcanism and transfers water, carbonates and sulfates to the mantle; Stage 3 - the core dynamo initiates, and the associated magnetosphere leads to conditions conducive to the development of near-surface life and photosynthetic production of oxygen; Stage 4 - accretion of thickened, continental crust and subduction of hydrated oceanic crust to the mantle boundary layer and lower mantle of Mars occurs; Stage 5 - the core dynamo stops during Noachian heavy bombardment while plate tectonism continues; Stage 6 - initiation of the Tharsis superplume (approx. between 4.0 and 3.8Ga) occurs, and Stage 7 - the superlume phase (stagnant-lid regime) of martian planetary evolution with episodic phases of volcanism and water outflows continues into the present. The GEOMARS Theory is testable through a multidisciplinary approach, including utilizing GRS-based information. Based on a synthesis of published geologic, paleohydrologic, topographic, geophysical, spectral, and elemental information, we have defined geologic provinces that represent significant windows into the geological evolution of Mars, unfolding the GEOMARS Theory and forming the basis for interpreting GRS data.

Dohm, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Determining the Sun's Deep Meridional Flow Speed Using Active Latitude Drift Rates Since 1874

Dynamo models that incorporate a deep meridional return flow indicate that this flow regulates both the period and the amplitude of the sunspot cycle. We recently examined the equatorward drift of the active latitudes (as given by the centroid of the sunspot areas in each hemisphere) and found evidence supporting this view. In those studies we fit the equatorward drift in each hemisphere for each sunspot cycle with a simple parabola - giving us a drift rate and its deceleration for each hemisphere/cycle. Here we analyze the same data (the Royal Greenwich Observatory/JSAF/NOAA daily active region summaries) to determine the drift rates in each hemisphere on a yearly basis (rotation-by- rotation measurements smoothed to remove high frequencies) and fit them with a simple model for the meridional flow that provides the meridional flow speed as a function of latitude and time from 1874 to 2005. These flow speeds can be used to test dynamo models - some of which have predictive capabilities.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2005

A Forecast of Reduced Solar Activity and Its Implications for NASA

The "Solar Dynamo" method of solar activity forecasting is reviewed. Known generically as a 'precursor" method, insofar as it uses observations which precede solar activity generation, this method now uses the Solar Dynamo Amplitude (SODA) Index to estimate future long-term solar activity. The peak amplitude of the next solar cycle (#24), is estimated at roughly 124 in terms of smoothed F10.7 Radio Flux and 74 in terms of the older, more traditional smoothed international or Zurich Sunspot number (Ri or Rz). These values are significantly smaller than the amplitudes of recent solar cycles. Levels of activity stay large for about four years near the peak in smoothed activity, which is estimated to occur near the 2012 timeflame. Confidence is added to the prediction of low activity by numerous examinations of the Sun s weakened polar field. Direct measurements are obtained by the Mount Wilson Solar Observatory and the Wilcox Solar Observatory. Further support is obtained by examining the Sun s polar faculae (bright features), the shape of coronal soft X-ray "holes," and the shape of the "source surface" - a calculated coronal feature which maps the large scale structure of the Sun s field. These features do not show the characteristics of well-formed polar coronal holes associated with typical solar minima. They show stunted polar field levels, which are thought to result in stunted levels of solar activity during solar cycle #24. The reduced levels of solar activity would have concomitant effects upon the space environment in which satellites orbit. In particular, the largest influences would affect orbit determination of satellites in LEO (Low Earth Orbit), based upon the altered thermospheric and exospheric densities. A decrease in solar activity would result in smaller satellite decay rates, as well as fewer large solar events that can destroy satellite electronic functions. Other effects of reduced solar activity upon the space environment include enhanced galactic cosmic rays and more space debris at low altitudes (from the decay of old satellite parts, etc.). The reasons are well known: namely, solar activity serves to sweep the inner heliosphere of galactic cosmic rays, and lower exospheric densities result in decreased drag on LEO debris, allowing longer lifetimes.

Schatten, Kenneth↗
NASA NTRS2006

Constraining Numerical Geodynamo Modeling with Surface Observations

Numerical dynamo solutions have traditionally been generated entirely by a set of self-consistent differential equations that govern the spatial-temporal variation of the magnetic field, velocity field and other fields related to dynamo processes. In particular, those solutions are obtained with parameters very different from those appropriate for the Earth s core. Geophysical application of the numerical results therefore depends on correct understanding of the differences (errors) between the model outputs and the true states (truth) in the outer core. Part of the truth can be observed at the surface in the form of poloidal magnetic field. To understand these differences, or errors, we generate new initial model state (analysis) by assimilating sequentially the model outputs with the surface geomagnetic observations using an optimal interpolation scheme. The time evolution of the core state is then controlled by our MoSST core dynamics model. The final outputs (forecasts) are then compared with the surface observations as a means to test the success of the assimilation. We use the surface geomagnetic data back to year 1900 for our studies, with 5-year forecast and 20-year analysis periods. We intend to use the result; to understand time variation of the errors with the assimilation sequences, and the impact of the assimilation on other unobservable quantities, such as the toroidal field and the fluid velocity in the core.

Kuang, Weijia↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Invariant Twist of Magnetic Fields in the Relativistic Jets of Active Galactic Nuclei

The origin of cosmic magnetic (B) fields remains an open question. It is generally believed that very weak primordial B fields are amplified by dynamo processes, but it appears unlikely that the amplification proceeds fast enough to account for the fields presently observed in galaxies and galaxy clusters. In an alternative scenario, cosmic B fields are generated near the inner edges of accretion disks in Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) by azimuthal electric currents due to the difference between the plasma electron and ion velocities that arises when the electrons are retarded by interactions with photons. While dynamo processes show no preference for the polarity of the (presumably random) seed field that they amplify, this alternative mechanism uniquely relates the polarity of the poloidal B field to the angular velocity of the accretion disk, resulting in a unique direction for the toroidal B field induced by disk rotation. Observations of the toroidal fields of 29 AGN jets revealed by parsec-scale Faraday rotation measurements show a clear asymmetry that is consistent with this model, with the probability that this asymmetry came about by chance being less than 1 %. This lends support to the hypothesis that the Universe is seeded by B fields that are generated in AGN via this mechanism

Contopoulos, Ioannis↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Stellar Imager (SI) - A Mission to Resolve Stellar Surfaces, Interiors, and Magnetic Activity

The Stellar Imager (SI) is a space-based, UV/Optical Interferometer (UVOI) designed to enable 0.1 milli-arcsecond (mas) spectral imaging of stellar surfaces and of the Universe in general. It will also probe via asteroseismology flows and structures in stellar interiors. SI will enable the development and testing of a predictive dynamo model for the Sun, by observing patterns of surface activity and imaging of the structure and differential rotation of stellar interiors in a population study of Sun-like stars to determine the dependence of dynamo action on mass, internal structure and flows, and time. SI's science focuses on the role of magnetism in the Universe and will revolutionize our understanding of the formation of planetary systems, of the habitability and climatology of distant planets, and of many magnetohydrodynamically controlled processes in the Universe. SI is a "LandmarklDiscovery Mission" in the 2005 Heliophysics Roadmap, an implementation of the UVOI in the 2006 Astrophysics Strategic Plan, and a NASA Vision Mission ("NASA Space Science Vision Missions" (2008), ed. M. Allen). We present here the science goals of the SI Mission, a mission architecture that could meet those goals, and the technology development needed to enable this mission

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Standard Law for the Equatorward Drift of the Sunspot Zones

The latitudinal location of the sunspot zones in each hemisphere is determined by calculating the centroid position of sunspot areas for each solar rotation from May 1874 to June 2012. When these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle maximum there appears to be systematic differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates as a function of sunspot cycle amplitude. If, instead, these centroid positions are plotted and analyzed as functions of time from each sunspot cycle minimum then most of the differences in the positions and equatorward drift rates disappear. The differences that remain disappear entirely if curve fitting is used to determine the starting times (which vary by as much as 8 months from the times of minima). The sunspot zone latitudes and equatorward drift measured relative to this starting time follow a standard path for all cycles with no dependence upon cycle strength or hemispheric dominance. Although Cycle 23 was peculiar in its length and the strength of the polar fields it produced, it too shows no significant variation from this standard. This standard law, and the lack of variation with sunspot cycle characteristics, is consistent with Dynamo Wave mechanisms but not consistent with current Flux Transport Dynamo models for the equatorward drift of the sunspot zones.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

International Space Station Columbus Payload SoLACES Degradation Assessment

SOLAR is a European Space Agency (ESA) payload deployed on the International Space Station (ISS) and located on the Columbus Laboratory. It is located on the Columbus External Payload Facility in a zenith location. The objective of the SOLAR payload is to study the Sun. The SOLAR payload consists of three instruments that allow for measurement of virtually the entire electromagnetic spectrum (17 nm to 100 um). The three payload instruments are SOVIM (SOlar Variable and Irradiance Monitor), SOLSPEC (SOLar SPECctral Irradiance measurements), and SolACES (SOLar Auto‐Calibrating Extreme UV/UV Spectrophotometers). The SolACES payload includes a set of 4 spectrometers that measure the solar EUV flux from 17 nm to 220 nm. One of these 4 spectrometers failed early on (before deployment). EUV data is important in understanding the solar dynamo. Also, EUV flux is the source of most of the ionization that produces the ionosphere plasma. Plasma production is important in understanding the ionosphere environment. The ionosphere conditions affect many subjects including spacecraft charging, dynamo processes, instabilities, and communications. The 3 remaining spectrometers have collected valuable data during the historically low solar cycle 24. Some of this data will be presented. A significant trend in degradation of the remaining SolACES spectrometers was observed towards the end of CY2010 (GMT 310) through mid CY 2011 (GMT 132). The Principle Investigators of SolACES initiated a Mission Evaluation Room (MER) Chit to request an investigation of the degradation in CY 2011 (GMT 230). The Boeing Space Environments team was asked to respond to the ESA initiated MER Chit request to investigate the cause of the degradation. This paper will discuss the findings of that investigation.

Harman, William↗
NASA NTRS2014

Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence and the Geodynamo

The ARES Directorate at JSC has researched the physical processes that create planetary magnetic fields through dynamo action since 2007. The "dynamo problem" has existed since 1600, when William Gilbert, physician to Queen Elizabeth I, recognized that the Earth was a giant magnet. In 1919, Joseph Larmor proposed that solar (and by implication, planetary) magnetism was due to magnetohydrodynamics (MHD), but full acceptance did not occur until Glatzmaier and Roberts solved the MHD equations numerically and simulated a geomagnetic reversal in 1995. JSC research produced a unique theoretical model in 2012 that provided a novel explanation of these physical observations and computational results as an essential manifestation of broken ergodicity in MHD turbulence. Research is ongoing, and future work is aimed at understanding quantitative details of magnetic dipole alignment in the Earth as well as in Mercury, Jupiter and its moon Ganymede, Saturn, Uranus, Neptune, and the Sun and other stars.

Shebalin, John V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Phase Equilibria of a S- and C-Poor Lunar Core

The composition of the lunar core can have a large impact on its thermal evolution, possible early dynamo creation, and physical state. Geochemical measurements have placed better constraints on the S and C content of the lunar mantle. In this study we have carried out phase equilibrium studies of geochemically plausible S- and C-poor lunar core compositions in the Fe-Ni-S-C system, and apply them to the early history of the Moon. We chose two bulk core compositions, with differing S and C content based on geochemical analyses of S and C trapped melts in Apollo samples, and on the partitioning of S and C between metal and silicate. This approach allowed calculation of core S and C contents - 90% Fe, 9% Ni, 0.5% C, and 0.375% S by weight; a second composition contained 1% each of S and C. Experiments were carried out from 1473K to 1973K and 1 GPa to 5 GPa, in piston cylinder and multi- anvil apparatuses. Combination of the thermal model of with our results, shows that a solid inner core (and therefore initiation of a dynamo) may have been possible in the earliest history of the Moon (approximately 4.2 Ga ago), in agreement with. Thus a volatile poor lunar core may explain the thermal and magnetic history of the Moon.

Righter, K.↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Comparative Analysis of the Magnetic Field Signals over Impact Structures on the Earth, Mars and the Moon

An improved description of magnetic fields of terrestrial bodies has been obtained from recent space missions, leading to a better characterization of the internal fields including those of crustal origin. One of the striking differences in their crustal magnetic field is the signature of large impact craters. A comparative analysis of the magnetic characteristics of these structures can shed light on the history of their respective planetary-scale magnetic dynamos. This has motivated us to identify impact craters and basins, first by their quasi-circular features from the most recent and detailed topographic maps and then from available global magnetic field maps. We have examined the magnetic field observed above 27 complex craters on the Earth, 34 impact basins on Mars and 37 impact basins on the Moon. For the first time, systematic trends in the amplitude and frequency of the magnetic patterns, inside and outside of these structures are observed for all three bodies. The demagnetization effects due to the impact shock wave and excavation processes have been evaluated applying the Equivalent Source Dipole forward modeling approach. The main characteristics of the selected impact craters are shown. The trends in their magnetic signatures are indicated, which are related to the presence or absence of a planetary-scale dynamo at the time of their formation and to impact processes. The low magnetic field intensity at center can be accepted as the prime characteristic of a hypervelocity impact and strongly associated with the mechanics of impact crater formation. In the presence of an active internal field, the process of demagnetization due to the shock impact is associated with post-impact remagnetization processes, generating a more complex magnetic signature.

Earth↗
NASA NTRS2017

Solar Activity Across the Scales: From Small-Scale Quiet-Sun Dynamics to Magnetic Activity Cycles

Observations as well as numerical and theoretical models show that solar dynamics is characterized by complicated interactions and energy exchanges among different temporal and spatial scales. It reveals magnetic self-organization processes from the smallest scale magnetized vortex tubes to the global activity variation known as the solar cycle. To understand these multiscale processes and their relationships, we use a two-fold approach: 1) realistic 3D radiative MHD simulations of local dynamics together with high resolution observations by IRIS, Hinode, and SDO; and 2) modeling of solar activity cycles by using simplified MHD dynamo models and mathematical data assimilation techniques. We present recent results of this approach, including the interpretation of observational results from NASA heliophysics missions and predictive capabilities. In particular, we discuss the links between small-scale dynamo processes in the convection zone and atmospheric dynamics, as well as an early prediction of Solar Cycle 25.

Solar↗
NASA NTRS2018

Physics-Based Approach to Predict the Solar Activity Cycles

Observations of the complex highly non-linear dynamics of global turbulent flows and magnetic fields are currently available only from Earth-side observations. Recent progress in helioseismology has provided us some additional information about the subsurface dynamics, but its relation to the magnetic field evolution is not yet understood. These limitations cause uncertainties that are difficult take into account, and perform proper calibration of dynamo models. The current dynamo models have also uncertainties due to the complicated turbulent physics of magnetic field generation, transport and dissipation. Because of the uncertainties in both observations and theory, the data assimilation approach is natural way for the solar cycle prediction and estimating uncertainties of this prediction. I will discuss the prediction results for the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 and their uncertainties and affect of Ensemble Kalman Filter parameters to resulting predictions.

Physics-Based↗
NASA NTRS2017

Data Assimilation and Uncertainties in Early Solar Cycle Predictions

Stochastic nature of solar activity variations together with our limited knowledge of the dynamo mechanism and subsurface dynamics causes uncertainty in predictions of the solar cycle. For improving the physics-­‐based predictions we can take advantage of the mathematical data assimilation approach that allows us to take into account both, observational errors and model uncertainties, and provide estimates of the next solar cycle along with prediction uncertainties. In this study we use the Parker's migratory dynamo model together with the equation of magnetic helicity balance, which reproduces main properties of the sunspot cycles and allow us to minimize discrepancies between the observed global activity variations and the model solution. The test simulation runs show that a reliable prediction can be obtained for two phases of preceding solar cycle: 1) if the polar field reversals shortly after the solar maxima (strong toroidal field and weak poloidal field), and 2) during the solar minima (strongest poloidal and weak toroidal fields). The early estimate of Cycle 25 obtained by this method shows that this cycle will start in 2019 – 2020, reach the maximum in 2023 – 2024, and that the mean sunspot number at the maximum will be about 90 (for the v2.0 sunspot number series).

Data Assimilation↗