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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improving the Fidelity of Capability & Resource Weighting in A Probalistic Risk Assessment Model for Spaceflight

INTRODUCTION NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) tool uses Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to provide an evidence-based, data-driven estimate of how medical system capabilities affect mission outcomes. IMPACT maps condition incidence to available resources thereby facilitating the calculation of outcome metrics that allow the estimation of mission medical risk. Conditions can be nominally categorized as either treated or untreated depending on the availability of necessary diagnostic and therapeutic capabilities. This categorization enables IMPACT to estimate the effect of various medical system configurations on mission outcomes such as crew mortality, disability, crew member down-time, return to duty/recovery, and need for evacuation. IMPACT currently employs an equal weighting, “partial credit” approach to define treatment in which each of the capabilities associated with a given condition contributes an equal amount to management of the condition. This feature enables IMPACT to report values in between “fully untreated” and “fully treated” based on the proportion of capabilities available within the model. However, as is normal in medical/clinical practice, not all individual capabilities contribute equally to medical care. For example, the ability to provide intramuscular epinephrine during an anaphylactic episode contributes more likelihood of overall management success than does the administration of oral diphenhydramine. We hypothesize that weighting the relative contribution of each capability to each specific condition will improve outcome prediction and therefore will better provide mission planners with more nuanced and accurate options when designing space medical systems. METHODS Using a five-point Fibonacci scaling sequence (1, 2, 3, 5, 8) subject matter experts from NASA’s Exploration Medical Capabilities (ExMC) element assigned relative contribution weighting values to each identified capability within IMPACT. Since the relative importance of each capability varies depending on the specific condition, the resulting “partial” weighting was completed for more than 1,600 individual weighting assignments for 666 capabilities across 121 conditions. Each assignment required three-physician concurrence based on the overall importance of the capability to the diagnosis and management of the condition being considered and the difficulty with which it could be improvised by the crew. Once complete, 100,000 IMPACT simulations were run for a 6-month Lunar mission with a 30-day surface stay to evaluate the effect of this modification of the model. RESULTS Partial weighting significantly decreased predicted task time loss (TTL), evacuation, and loss of crew life without causing significant changes to the recommended medical system design. CONCLUSIONS The paucity of real-world referent data to support long-duration space missions of this type limits the ability to judge one predictive analytics method as superior to another. However, since the proposed method significantly reduces and optimizes outcome risks—without changing the medical system design—incorporating a partial weighting methodology is likely to provide a more accurate and operationally-relevant representation of medical risk without compromising IMPACTs ability to inform overarching medical system requirements.

Steller JG↗

NASA NTRS1977

Information retrieval and display system

Versatile command-driven data management system offers users, through simplified command language, a means of storing and searching data files, sorting data files into specified orders, performing simple or complex computations, effecting file updates, and printing or displaying output data. Commands are simple to use and flexible enough to meet most data management requirements.

Groover, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Processing by data and program blocks

A processing system is presented that implements simultaneously the efficiency of the special-purpose processor and the total applicability of the general-purpose computer - characteristics commonly thought of as being mutually exclusive. This is achieved through specializing the machine by programming the hardware structure, rather than by adding software systems to it. Data are organized in circulating pages which form a multiplicity of local dynamic memories for each process. Programs are made up of modules, each describing a transient special-purpose machine. A characteristic of this approach is that the processes are data-driven, rather than program-driven. The programming language presents significant flexibility and efficiency in modeling certain classes of problems, and it may be of interest as an implementation model in a broader context. Applications to real-time processing of radar signals are reported. The relevance of characteristics of this system to problems in multiprogramming and multiprocessing systems is discussed.

Schaffner, M. R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Cross-validation for densities and regressions

Virtually all nonparametric (infinite dimensional) problems require the choice of a smoothing parameter. It is natural to attempt to use the data to guide the choice of this parameter. The most widely applicable data driven technique is cross validation. The method of cross validation is introduced and results are presented which establish consistency for certain cross validated density estimators and consistency as well as asymptotic normality for rigid regression.

Geman, S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Preliminary report of Goddard/University Human Factors Research Group

The three major concerns which greatly influence the initial efforts and priorities in the human factors arena are outlined. These concerns are an increased awareness of the: (1) over riding data driven aspects of current command/control systems; (2) complexity of existing man/system interface mechanisms; and (3) great extent of the manual intervention required in present systems.

Truszkowski, W.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Design considerations for flight test of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system algorithm for avionics sensors

The modifications to the design of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system (FINDS) algorithm to accommodate flight computer constraints and the resulting impact on the algorithm performance are summarized. An overview of the flight data-driven FINDS algorithm is presented. This is followed by a brief analysis of the effects of modifications to the algorithm on program size and execution speed. Significant improvements in estimation performance for the aircraft states and normal operating sensor biases, which have resulted from improved noise design parameters and a new steady-state wind model, are documented. The aircraft state and sensor bias estimation performances of the algorithm's extended Kalman filter are presented as a function of update frequency of the piecewise constant filter gains. The results of a new detection system strategy and failure detection performance, as a function of gain update frequency, are also presented.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Design considerations for flight test of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system algorithm for avionics sensors

This paper summarizes the modifications made to the design of a fault inferring nonlinear detection system (FINDS) algorithm to accommodate flight computer constraints and the resulting impact on the algorithm performance. An overview of the flight data-driven FINDS algorithm is presented. This is followed by a brief analysis of the effects of modifications to the algorithm on program size and execution speed. Significant improvements in estimation performance for the aircraft states and normal operating sensor biases, which have resulted from improved noise design parameters and a new steady-state wind model, are documented. The aircraft state and sensor bias estimation performances of the algorithm's extended Kalman filter are presented as a function of update frequency of the piecewise constant filter gains. The results of a new detection system strategy and failure detection performance, as a function of an update frequency, are also presented.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

NASA NTRS1987

Computer architecture for efficient algorithmic executions in real-time systems: New technology for avionics systems and advanced space vehicles

Improvements and advances in the development of computer architecture now provide innovative technology for the recasting of traditional sequential solutions into high-performance, low-cost, parallel system to increase system performance. Research conducted in development of specialized computer architecture for the algorithmic execution of an avionics system, guidance and control problem in real time is described. A comprehensive treatment of both the hardware and software structures of a customized computer which performs real-time computation of guidance commands with updated estimates of target motion and time-to-go is presented. An optimal, real-time allocation algorithm was developed which maps the algorithmic tasks onto the processing elements. This allocation is based on the critical path analysis. The final stage is the design and development of the hardware structures suitable for the efficient execution of the allocated task graph. The processing element is designed for rapid execution of the allocated tasks. Fault tolerance is a key feature of the overall architecture. Parallel numerical integration techniques, tasks definitions, and allocation algorithms are discussed. The parallel implementation is analytically verified and the experimental results are presented. The design of the data-driven computer architecture, customized for the execution of the particular algorithm, is discussed.

Carroll, Chester C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Resource Allocation Planning Helper (RALPH): Lessons learned

The current task of Resource Allocation Process includes the planning and apportionment of JPL's Ground Data System composed of the Deep Space Network and Mission Control and Computing Center facilities. The addition of the data driven, rule based planning system, RALPH, has expanded the planning horizon from 8 weeks to 10 years and has resulted in large labor savings. Use of the system has also resulted in important improvements in science return through enhanced resource utilization. In addition, RALPH has been instrumental in supporting rapid turn around for an increased volume of special what if studies. The status of RALPH is briefly reviewed and important lessons learned from the creation of an highly functional design team are focused on through an evolutionary design and implementation period in which an AI shell was selected, prototyped, and ultimately abandoned, and through the fundamental changes to the very process that spawned the tool kit. Principal topics include proper integration of software tools within the planning environment, transition from prototype to delivered to delivered software, changes in the planning methodology as a result of evolving software capabilities and creation of the ability to develop and process generic requirements to allow planning flexibility.

Durham, Ralph↗

NASA NTRS1989

Distortions in memory for visual displays

Systematic errors in perception and memory present a challenge to theories of perception and memory and to applied psychologists interested in overcoming them as well. A number of systematic errors in memory for maps and graphs are reviewed, and they are accounted for by an analysis of the perceptual processing presumed to occur in comprehension of maps and graphs. Visual stimuli, like verbal stimuli, are organized in comprehension and memory. For visual stimuli, the organization is a consequence of perceptual processing, which is bottom-up or data-driven in its earlier stages, but top-down and affected by conceptual knowledge later on. Segregation of figure from ground is an early process, and figure recognition later; for both, symmetry is a rapidly detected and ecologically valid cue. Once isolated, figures are organized relative to one another and relative to a frame of reference. Both perceptual (e.g., salience) and conceptual factors (e.g., significance) seem likely to affect selection of a reference frame. Consistent with the analysis, subjects perceived and remembered curves in graphs and rivers in maps as more symmetric than they actually were. Symmetry, useful for detecting and recognizing figures, distorts map and graph figures alike. Top-down processes also seem to operate in that calling attention to the symmetry vs. asymmetry of a slightly asymmetric curve yielded memory errors in the direction of the description. Conceptual frame of reference effects were demonstrated in memory for lines embedded in graphs. In earlier work, the orientation of map figures was distorted in memory toward horizontal or vertical. In recent work, graph lines, but not map lines, were remembered as closer to an imaginary 45 deg line than they had been. Reference frames are determined by both perceptual and conceptual factors, leading to selection of the canonical axes as a reference frame in maps, but selection of the imaginary 45 deg as a reference frame in graphs.

Tversky, Barbara↗

NASA NTRS1992

Advanced software development workstation. Comparison of two object-oriented development methodologies

This report is an attempt to clarify some of the concerns raised about the OMT method, specifically that OMT is weaker than the Booch method in a few key areas. This interim report specifically addresses the following issues: (1) is OMT object-oriented or only data-driven?; (2) can OMT be used as a front-end to implementation in C++?; (3) the inheritance concept in OMT is in contradiction with the 'pure and real' inheritance concept found in object-oriented (OO) design; (4) low support for software life-cycle issues, for project and risk management; (5) uselessness of functional modeling for the ROSE project; and (6) problems with event-driven and simulation systems. The conclusion of this report is that both Booch's method and Rumbaugh's method are good OO methods, each with strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the development process.

Izygon, Michel E.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The Knowledge-Based Software Assistant: Beyond CASE

This paper will outline the similarities and differences between two paradigms of software development. Both support the whole software life cycle and provide automation for most of the software development process, but have different approaches. The CASE approach is based on a set of tools linked by a central data repository. This tool-based approach is data driven and views software development as a series of sequential steps, each resulting in a product. The Knowledge-Based Software Assistant (KBSA) approach, a radical departure from existing software development practices, is knowledge driven and centers around a formalized software development process. KBSA views software development as an incremental, iterative, and evolutionary process with development occurring at the specification level.

Carozzoni, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

NASA Customer Data and Operations System

In addition to the currently provided NASA services such as Communications and Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System services, the NASA's Customer Data and Operations System (CDOS) will provide the following services to the user: Data Delivery Service, Data Archive Service, and CDOS Operations Management Service. This paper describes these services in detail and presents respective block diagrams. The CDOS services will support a variety of multipurpose missions simultaneously with centralized and common hardware and software data-driven systems.

Butler, Madeline J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

MAX - An advanced parallel computer for space applications

MAX is a fault-tolerant multicomputer hardware and software architecture designed to meet the needs of NASA spacecraft systems. It consists of conventional computing modules (computers) connected via a dual network topology. One network is used to transfer data among the computers and between computers and I/O devices. This network's topology is arbitrary. The second network operates as a broadcast medium for operating system synchronization messages and supports the operating system's Byzantine resilience. A fully distributed operating system supports multitasking in an asynchronous event and data driven environment. A large grain dataflow paradigm is used to coordinate the multitasking and provide easy control of concurrency. It is the basis of the system's fault tolerance and allows both static and dynamical location of tasks. Redundant execution of tasks with software voting of results may be specified for critical tasks. The dataflow paradigm also supports simplified software design, test and maintenance. A unique feature is a method for reliably patching code in an executing dataflow application.

Lewis, Blair F.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Transportable Applications Environment (TAE) Tenth Users' Conference

Conference proceedings are represented in graphic visual-aid form. Presentation and panel discussion topics include user experiences with C++ and Ada; the design and interaction of the user interface; the history and goals of TAE; commercialization and testing of TAE Plus; Computer-Human Interaction Models (CHIMES); data driven objects; item-to-item connections and object dependencies; and integration with other software. There follows a list of conference attendees.

Rouff, Chris↗

NASA NTRS1992

Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). Implementation guide for TOPS version 2.0, 10 August 1992

As the nation redefines priorities to deal with a rapidly changing world order, both government and industry require new approaches for oversight of management systems, particularly for high technology products. Declining defense budgets will lead to significant reductions in government contract management personnel. Concurrently, defense contractors are reducing administrative and overhead staffing to control costs. These combined pressures require bold approaches for the oversight of management systems. In the Spring of 1991, the DPRO and TRW created a Process Action Team (PAT) to jointly prepare a Performance Based Management (PBM) system titled Teamwork for Oversight of Processes and Systems (TOPS). The primary goal is implementation of a performance based management system based on objective data to review critical TRW processes with an emphasis on continuous improvement. The processes are: Finance and Business Systems, Engineering and Manufacturing Systems, Quality Assurance, and Software Systems. The team established a number of goals: delivery of quality products to contractual terms and conditions; ensure that TRW management systems meet government guidance and good business practices; use of objective data to measure critical processes; elimination of wasteful/duplicative reviews and audits; emphasis on teamwork--all efforts must be perceived to add value by both sides and decisions are made by consensus; and synergy and the creation of a strong working trust between TRW and the DPRO. TOPS permits the adjustment of oversight resources when conditions change or when TRW systems performance indicate either an increase or decrease in surveillance is appropriate. Monthly Contractor Performance Assessments (CPA) are derived from a summary of supporting system level and process-level ratings obtained from objective process-level data. Tiered, objective, data-driven metrics are highly successful in achieving a cooperative and effective method of measuring performance. The teamwork-based culture developed by TOPS proved an unequaled success in removing adversarial relationships and creating an atmosphere of continuous improvement in quality processes at TRW. The new working relationship does not decrease the responsibility or authority of the DPRO to ensure contract compliance and it permits both parties to work more effectively to improve total quality and reduce cost. By emphasizing teamwork in developing a stronger approach to efficient management of the defense industrial base TOPS is a singular success.

Strand, Albert A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Common spaceborne multicomputer operating system and development environment

A preliminary technical specification for a multicomputer operating system is developed. The operating system is targeted for spaceborne flight missions and provides a broad range of real-time functionality, dynamic remote code-patching capability, and system fault tolerance and long-term survivability features. Dataflow concepts are used for representing application algorithms. Functional features are included to ensure real-time predictability for a class of algorithms which require data-driven execution on an iterative steady state basis. The development environment supports the development of algorithm code, design of control parameters, performance analysis, simulation of real-time dataflow applications, and compiling and downloading of the resulting application.

Craymer, L. G.↗

NASA NTRS1994

EDOS operations concept and development approach

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Operations System (EDOS) is being developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) for the capture, level zero processing, distribution, and backup archiving of high speed telemetry data received from EOS spacecraft. All data received will conform to the Consultative Committee for Space Data Standards (CCSDS) recommendations. The major EDOS goals are to: (1) minimize EOS program costs to implement and operate EDOS; (2) respond effectively to EOS growth requirements; and (3) maintain compatibility with existing and enhanced versions of NASA institutional systems required to support EOS spacecraft. In order to meet these goals, the following objectives have been defined for EDOS: (1) standardize EDOS interfaces to maximize utility for future requirements; (2) emphasize life-cycle cost (LCC) considerations (rather than procurement costs) in making design decisions and meeting reliability, maintainability, availability (RMA) and upgradability requirements; (3) implement data-driven operations to the maximum extent possible to minimize staffing requirements and to maximize system responsiveness; (4) provide a system capable of simultaneously supporting multiple spacecraft, each in different phases of their life-cycles; (5) provide for technology insertion features to accommodate growth and future LCC reductions during the operations phase; and (6) provide a system that is sufficiently robust to accommodate incremental performance upgrades while supporting operations. Operations concept working group meetings were facilitated to help develop the EDOS operations concept. This provided a cohesive concept that met with approval of responsible personnel from the start. This approach not only speeded up the development process by reducing review cycles, it also provided a medium for generating good ideas that were immediately molded into feasible concepts. The operations concept was then used as a basis for the EDOS specification. When it was felt that concept elements did not support detailed requirements, the facilitator process was used to resolve discrepancies or to add new concept elements to support the specification. This method provided an ongoing revisal of the operations concept and prevented large revisions at the end of the requirement analysis phase of system development.

Knoble, G.↗