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NASA NTRS1988

Integration of space and in situ observations to study global climate change

The use of model-based global data sets of atmospheric circulation for studying fundamental dynamical and physical processes is discussed, focusing on limitations of the available model-based data sets. Data from the Global Weather Experiment in 1979 were analyzed by two authorized level IIIb data centers in 1980 and in 1981. The analyses led to difference in data-sparse regions such as the tropics. Study areas which can be addressed by an internally-consistent long-term multivariate data set for the atmospheric circulation are considered, including mean climate, forcing for the ocean models, global hydrological cycle, atmospheric energetics, intraseasonal variability, land surface processes, and structure and variability of vertical velocity, divergence, and diabatic heating. It is concluded that the most comprehensive technique for integrating space and in situ observations to produce this type of data set would be a four-dimensional data assimilation system with a realistic physical model of the type employed in operational numerical weather prediction.

Bengtsson, L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Zonally symmetric response to atmospheric tidal forcing in the dusty Martian atmosphere

The paper presents a steady state, zonally symmetric response of an atmospheric circulation to the combined effects of the very large zonal-mean diabatic heating and thermotidal forcing thought to exist in the dusty Martian atmosphere during one of its episodic global dust storms. The zonal-mean components of the tidal flux-convergences of momentum and heat are computed using an existing classical atmospheric tidal model constrained by the surface pressure observations at the two Viking Lander sites on Mars. A nearly inviscid two-dimensional model is used to compute the zonally symmetric response to the computed tidal flux-convergences and to the zonal-mean heating of the airborne dust. The results are compared with data from the Viking missions.

Zurek, Richard W.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Origin of low-frequency (intraseasonal) oscillations in the tropical atmosphere. II - Structure and propagation of mobile wave-CISK modes and their modification by lower boundary forcings

An improved treatment of diabatic heating due to moist convection is introduced into the dynamical model of Lau and Peng (1987) to study the origin of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics. It is found that the periods of slow-moving wave-CISK disturbances in the tropical troposphere with fixed sea surface temperature vary from 20 to 50 days. The results suggest that heating in the lower troposphere may be important in slowing down the wave-CISK modes. Also, it is shown that the intraseasonal oscillation can propagate around the globe even when the associated deep convection is only confined over warm sea surface temperatures.

Sui, Chung-Hsiung↗

NASA NTRS1989

Ageostrophic effects on the stratospheric residual circulation and tracer distributions

The behaviors of idealized geostrophic and ageostrophic circulations forced by differential heating and parameterized eddy mixing in the absence of boundary drag are examined for a range of mixing values and boundary conditions, using a nonlinear version of Holton's (1986) channel model. It was found that geostrophic and ageostrophic flows can have fundamentally different behaviors. This may have important implications for the circulation and trace gas distributions in the stratosphere. It is shown that, as eddy forcing vanishes, an ageostrophic system is not constrained to approach radiative equilibrium and may tend to the limit of an inviscid diabatic circulation under a range of boundary conditions.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

NASA NTRS1989

On the role of ozone in the stability of Rossby normal modes

The role of ozone in the linear stability of Rossby normal modes is examined in a continuously stratified, extratropical baroclinic atmosphere. The flow is described by coupled equations for the quasi-geostraphic potential vorticity and ozone volume mixing ratio. A perturbation analysis is carried out under the assumption of weak diabatic heating, which is generated by Newtonian cooling and dynamics-ozone interaction. An expression for the propagation and growth characteristics is obtained analytically in terms of the vertically averaged wave activity, which depends explicitly on the wave spatial structure, photochemistry, and basic state distributions of wind, temperature, and ozone mixing ratio. Calculations show that stationary internal modes, whose amplitudes are largest in the stratosphre, are destabilized by dynamics-ozone interaction and Newtonian cooling, with e-folding times on the order of 20-40 days.

Nathan, Terrence R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Indicators of transport and vertical motion from correlations between in situ measurements in the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment

Analysis of small-scale structure in the in situ measurements made from the ER-2 during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment shows the existence of a region at the boundary of the chemiclly perturbed region where the mixing ratios and small-scale structure of trace gases are influenced by transport across the boundary. This transition region is characterized by horizontal interchange and vertical layering of air parcels from within and outside of the chemically perturbed region and negative small-scale correlations between ClO and ozone. The horizontal transport in this region creates large surface areas between dissimilar air masses, providing the potential for substantial mixing. Correlations between ClO and O3 show that the transition region extends to 2-4 deg of latitude to either side of the boundary of the chemically perturbed region. A + or - 4-deg-wide transition region would contain nearly as much air as the chemically perturbed region proper. Analysis of water vapor and nitrous oxide data suggests that diabatic descent is associated with dehydration. This could be caused by strong radiative cooling of those polar stratospheric clouds in which enough water condenses for the particles to fall and dehydrate the air.

Murphy, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Use of satellite data and modeling to asses the influence of stratospheric processes on the troposphere

The research is comprised of the following tasks: use of simple analytical and numerical models of a coupled troposphere-stratosphere system to examine the effects of radiation and ozone on planetary wave dynamics and the tropospheric circulation; use of satellite data obtained from the Nimbus 7 Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) instrument and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) experiment, in conjunction with National Meteorological Center (NMC) data, to determine the planetary wave vertical structures, dominant wave spectra, ozone spectra, and time variations in diabatic heating rate; and synthesis of the modeling and observational results to provide a better understanding of the effects that stratospheric processes have on tropospheric dynamics.

Nathan, Terrence R.↗

NASA NTRS1989

A study of the effect of synoptic scale processes in GCM modelling

Research was conducted to help modeling groups at NASA to develop better weather forecasting and general circulation models (GCM) for activities relating to the meteorological uses of satellite data. The focus was on the physical processes that were being simulated by models: radiative effects and latent heat release associated with clouds; orographic influences; and heat transfer at the ocean and ice surfaces. An attempt was made to deduce the role of diabatic heating in North Atlantic cyclogenesis and in the global heat budget. Inferences were made in four studies: heat budget statistics from GCM assimilations; dynamics of north Atlantic cyclones; Cage-type energy budget calculations; and grid scale cloud formation. Mechanisms that were responsible for the variability and structure of the atmospheric on a hemispheric scale were studied by a hybrid of statistical analysis and theoretical modeling. Variability and structure are both related to synoptic scale processes through baroclinic and barotropic energy transformations.

Herman, Gerald F.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Explosive east coast cyclogenesis - Numerical experimentation and model-based diagnostics

Numerical experimentation of explosive east-coast cyclogenesis is performed using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The three cases examined here are the Presidents' Day storm of February 18-19, 1979 and the North Atlantic and Pacific bombs of January 18-20, 1979 which formed off the east coasts of the United States and Japan, respectively. The use of a global model provides a framework for studying the phenomena on the 3-5 day time scale. The forecast verifications of the numerical experiments indicate that the FSUGSM was able to adequately predict the phase, intensity, and synoptic-scale structure. These results justify the use of model data for diagnostic studies of the bomb. The model data are used to quantify the role of the adiabatic and diabatic forcing in the explosive cyclogenetic process, using surface pressure tendency to gage development.

Manobianco, John↗

NASA NTRS1989

Tropical forecasting - Predictability perspective

Results are presented of classical predictability studies and forecast experiments with observed initial conditions to show the nature of initial error growth and final error equilibration for the tropics and midlatitudes, separately. It is found that the theoretical upper limit of tropical circulation predictability is far less than for midlatitudes. The error growth for a complete general circulation model is compared to a dry version of the same model in which there is no prognostic equation for moisture, and diabatic heat sources are prescribed. It is found that the growth rate of synoptic-scale errors for the dry model is significantly smaller than for the moist model, suggesting that the interactions between dynamics and moist processes are among the important causes of atmospheric flow predictability degradation. Results are then presented of numerical experiments showing that correct specification of the slowly varying boundary condition of SST produces significant improvement in the prediction of time-averaged circulation and rainfall over the tropics.

Shukla, J.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Reconstruction of the constituent distribution and trends in the Antarctic polar vortex from ER-2 flight observations

The measurements of ozone, ClO, and N2O concentrations in the south polar region taken aboard the ER-2 aircraft during the Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment are analyzed using conservative coordinate transformations to potential temperature-N2O and potential temperature-potential vorticity space. The latter transformation is equivalent to interpreting trace species observations within the modified Lagrangian mean (MLM) coordinate system. The results show that the MLM transformed ozone concentration decreases at about 0.06 ppmv per day between 20- and 16-km altitude inside the polar vortex during the mid-August to mid-September period. These ozone changes are collocated with the region of high ClO concentration. Outside the chemically perturbed region, at the highest aircraft altitudes, ozone concentration systematically increases, suggesting a diabatic cooling of the order 0.3-0.6 K/day.

Schoeberl, Mark R.↗

NASA NTRS1990

On the sensitivity of a residual circulation model to differences in input temperature data

The residual mean circulation (RMC) formulation of zonally averaged transport in the middle atmosphere produces a circulation which depends on the distributions of net diabatic heating and temperature. Such circulations are from two temperature data sets, using the same radiative transfer code (Rosenfield et al. 1987). These circulations are then used to transport N2O in a photochemical model. The circulations and the resulting N2O distributions are notably different during the Northern Hemisphere winter, with that based on the NMC temperatures producing too much upward transport in the tropical stratosphere, as judged by comparison with the stratospheric and mesoscale sounder data. The experiment demonstrates that model calculations, in general, and perturbation assessments, in particular, are likely to be quite sensitive to the choice of input temperature data (where this is not computed self-consistently). It also reveals what appears to be a seasonally dependent bias in NMC zonally averaged temperatures with respect to those obtained from the LIMS instrument during 1978/1979.

Guthrie, Paul D.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Global transport calculations with an equivalent barotropic system

Transport properties of the two-dimensional equations governing equivalent barotropic motion are investigated on the sphere. This system has ingredients such as forcing, equivalent depth, and thermal dissipation explicitly represented, and takes into account compression effects associated with vertical motion along isentropic surfaces. Horizontal transport properties of this system are investigated under adiabatic and diabatic conditions for different forms of dissipation, and over a range of resolutions. It is shown that forcing represetative of time-mean and amplified conditions at 10 mb leads to the behavior typical of observations at this level. The displacement of the polar night vortex and its distortion into a comma shape are evident, as is irreversible mixing under sufficiently strong forcing amplitude. It is shown that thermal dissipation influences the behavior significantly by inhibiting the amplification of unstable eddies and thereby the horizontal stirring of air.

Salby, Murry L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Radiative heating rates during the Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment

A radiative transfer model and observed temperature and ozone profiles are used to compute three-dimensional fields of heating rates for the Northern Hemisphere during 1989 Airborne Arctic Stratospheric Experiment. For a clear atmosphere, an average cooling of 0.2 to 0.4 K/day is computed in the regions of the ER-2 aircraft during flight days. Tropospheric clouds will increase the cooling by 0.1 to 0.2 K/day. These cooling rates are in good agreement with the diabatic cooling estimated from N2O data, Net heating rather than cooling is computed in the area of the ozone 'minihole' which had its maximum on 1/31/89 and 2/1/89 in the vicinity of the mission. On 1/31/89 the 50 and 30 mb net heating rates are 0.1 to 0.2 K/day for clear skies, and 0.05 to 0.1 K/day for cloudy skies.

Rosenfield, Joan E.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An interactive chemical dynamical radiative two-dimensional model of the middle atmosphere

A new two-dimensional model of the stratosphere and the mesosphere was formulated in transformed Eulerian coordinates, in which dynamics, radiation, and chemistry are treated interactively. The model includes a detailed radiative scheme which derives the diabatic heating rates consistently with calculated distributions of temperature and trace species densities. Results are presented on the present-day and perturbed atmosphere, showing that the calculated distributions of source gases, such as nitrous oxide and methane, are very sensitive to the calculated (and parameterized) dynamical quantities, and that species produced in the atmosphere, like carbon monoxide and odd nitrogen, can provide valuable information on the role of atmospheric transport.

Brasseur, G.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The effect of horizontal resolution on systematic errors of the GLA forecast model

Systematic prediction errors of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) forecast system are reduced when the higher-resolution (2 x 2.5 deg) model version is used. Based on a budget analysis of the 200-mb eddy streamfunction, the improvement of stationary eddy forecasting is seen to be caused by the following mechanism: by increasing the horizontal spatial resolution of the forecast model, atmospheric diabatic heating over the three tropical continents is changed in a way that intensifies the planetary-scale divergent circulations associated with the three pairs of divergent-convergent centers over these continents. The intensified divergent circulation results in an enhancement of vorticity sources in the Northern Hemisphere. The additional vorticity is advected eastward by a stationary wave train along 30 deg N, thereby reducing systematic errors in the lower-resolution (4 x 5 deg) GLA model.

Chen, Tsing-Chang↗

NASA NTRS1990

Observation simulation experiments with regional prediction models

Research efforts in FY 1990 included studies employing regional scale numerical models as aids in evaluating potential contributions of specific satellite observing systems (current and future) to numerical prediction. One study involves Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) which mimic operational initialization/forecast cycles but incorporate simulated Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) radiances as input data. The objective of this and related studies is to anticipate the potential value of data from these satellite systems, and develop applications of remotely sensed data for the benefit of short range forecasts. Techniques are also being used that rely on numerical model-based synthetic satellite radiances to interpret the information content of various types of remotely sensed image and sounding products. With this approach, evolution of simulated channel radiance image features can be directly interpreted in terms of the atmospheric dynamical processes depicted by a model. Progress is being made in a study using the internal consistency of a regional prediction model to simplify the assessment of forced diabatic heating and moisture initialization in reducing model spinup times. Techniques for model initialization are being examined, with focus on implications for potential applications of remote microwave observations, including AMSU and Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), in shortening model spinup time for regional prediction.

Diak, George↗

NASA NTRS1990

Stratiform clouds and their interaction with atmospheric motion

During 1989 and 1990, the researchers saw the publication of two papers and the submission of a third for review on work supported primarily by the previous contract, NAS8-36150; the delivery of an invited talk at the SIAM Conference on Dynamical Systems in Orlando, Florida; and the start of two new projects on the radiative effects of stratocumulus on the large-scale flow. The published papers discuss aspects of stratocumulus circulations (Laufersweiler and Shirer, 1989) and the Hadley to Rossby regime transition in rotating spherical systems (Higgins and Shirer, 1990). The submitted paper (Haack and Shirer, 1990) discusses a new nonlinear model of roll circulations that are forced both dynamically and thermally. The invited paper by H. N. Shirer and R. Wells presented an objective means for determining appropriate truncation levels for low-order models of flows involving two incommensurate periods; this work has application to the Hadley to Rossby transition problem in quasi-geostrophic flows (Moroz and Holmes, 1984). The new projects involve the development of a multi-layered quasi-geostrophic channel model for study of the modulation of the large-scale flow by stratocumulus clouds that typically develop off the coasts of continents. In this model the diabatic forcing in the lowest layer will change in response to the (parameterized) development of extensive fields of stratocumulus clouds. To guide creation of this parameterization scheme, researchers are producing climatologies of stratocumulus frequency and the authors correlate these frequencies with the phasing and amplitude of the large-scale flow pattern. Researchers discuss the above topics in greater detail.

Clark, John H. E.↗