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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Flight Test Exploration of Integrated Wildfire Response Operations with Crewed and Uncrewed Air Assets

Since 2016, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster relief operations. Current disaster response operations would benefit from the use of UAS but are limited by the need for safe airspace integration technologies and enabling regulations. The work presented in this paper focuses on the safe integration of UAS and helicopters in active wildfire disaster response operations. The authors propose the use of mission planning and traffic management technologies, including onboard pilot situation awareness support technologies, to coordinate airspace operations between crewed and uncrewed aircraft (e.g., UAS). A representative wildfire scenario including a helicopter and UAS was developed. The helicopter mission included a flight path that mimicked the siphoning of water from a natural water reservoir (lake) and a subsequent water drop over vegetation along the progressing edge of a fire perimeter. Simulated UAS were assumed to conduct aerial ignition flights in the vicinity as part of a controlled burn of the vegetation ahead of the fire front to create a natural barrier between the fire and a nearby populated area. A situation awareness tool was developed and used to support the helicopter pilots’ task to stay clear of the volume of airspace where the UAS was conducting its operation while efficiently conducting the fire suppression mission. A flight test using JAXA’s experimental helicopter was conducted in August 2022 to validate the developed technology. The advantages of the developed technology were demonstrated, and pilot feedback confirmed that real-time awareness of the UAS operation airspace helped the flight planning and execution of a safe mission that minimized the flight time loss due to the potential interference with the UAS. Post-flight interviews with the pilots indicated no sufficient increase in the pilots’ workload and provided ideas for future technology development. Future research will provide recommendations to standards development organizations to support considerations for crewed-uncrewed interactions in disaster-response operations.

disaster response↗

NASA NTRS2010

Use of Remote Sensing Products for the SERVIR Project

The United Nations University (UNU) estimates that floods presently impacts greater than 520 million people per year worldwide, resulting in up to 25,000 annual deaths, extensive homelessness, disaster-induced disease, crop and livestock damage, famine, and other serious harm. Meanwhile, aid agencies such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are increasingly seeking better information concerning flood hazards in order to plan for and help mitigate the effects of damaging floods. There is fertile ground to continue development of better remote sensing and modeling techniques to help manage flood related disasters. Disaster management and humanitarian aid organizations need accurate and timely information for making decisions regarding deployment of relief teams and emergency supplies during major floods. Flood maps based on the use of satellite data have proven extremely valuable to such organizations for identifying the location, extent, and severity of these events. However, despite extraordinary efforts on the part of remote sensing data providers to rapidly deliver such maps, there is typically a delay of several days or even weeks from the on-set of flooding until such maps are available to the disaster management community. This paper summarizes efforts at NASA to address this problem through development of an integrated and automated process of a) flood forecasting b) flood detection, c) satellite data acquisition, d) rapid flood mapping and distribution, and e) validation of flood forecasting and detection products.

Policelli, Frederick S.↗

NASA NTRS2012

The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated under the Open Cloud Consortium (OGC) Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) set of web services was good [1][2]. However, it was discovered that in order to make a system like this functional, there were many performance issues. Data sets were large and located in a variety of location behind firewalls and had to be accessed across open networks, so security was an issue. Furthermore, the network access acted as bottleneck to transfer map products to where they are needed. Finally, during disasters, many users and computer processes act in parallel and thus it was very easy to overload the single string of computers stitched together in a virtual system that was initially developed. To address some of these performance issues, the team partnered with the Open Cloud Consortium (OCC) who supplied a Computation Cloud located at the University of Illinois at Chicago and some manpower to administer this Cloud. The Flood SensorWeb [3] system was interfaced to the Cloud to provide a high performance user interface and product development engine. Figure 1 shows the functional diagram of the Flood SensorWeb. Figure 2 shows some of the functionality of the Computation Cloud that was integrated. A significant portion of the original system was ported to the Cloud and during the past year, technical issues were resolved which included web access to the Cloud, security over the open Internet, beginning experiments on how to handle surge capacity by using the virtual machines in the cloud in parallel, using tiling techniques to render large data sets as layers on map, interfaces to allow user to customize the data processing/product chain and other performance enhancing techniques. The conclusion reached from the effort and this presentation is that defining the interoperability standards in a small fraction of the work. For example, once open web service standards were defined, many users could not make use of the standards due to security restrictions. Furthermore, once an interoperable sysm is functional, then a surge of users can render a system unusable, especially in the disaster domain.

Mandl, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2018

NASA’s Mid-Atlantic Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk Demonstration: Translating Compounding Hazards to Societal Risk

Remote sensing provides a unique perspective on our dynamic planet, tracking changes and revealing the course of complex interactions. Long term monitoring and targeted observation combine with modeling and mapping to provide increased awareness of hydro-meteorological and geological hazards. Disasters often follow hazards and the goal of NASA’s Disasters Program is to look at the earth as a highly coupled system to reduce risk and enable resilience. Remote sensing and geospatial science are used as tools to help answer critical questions that inform decisions. Data is not the same as information, nor does understanding of processes necessarily translate into decision support for disaster preparedness, response and recovery. Accordingly, NASA is engaging the scientific and decision-support communities to apply remote sensing, modeling, and related applications in Communities and Areas at Intensive Risk (CAIR). In 2017, NASA’s Applied Sciences Disasters Program hosted a regional workshop to explore these issues with particular focus on coastal Virginia and North Carolina. The workshop brought together partners in academia, emergency management, and scientists from NASA and partnering federal agencies to explore capabilities among the team that could improve understanding of the physical processes related to these hazards, their potential impact to changing communities, and to identify methodologies for supporting emergency response and risk mitigation. The resulting initiative, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project, demonstrates the ability to integrate satellite derived earth observations and physical models into actionable, trusted knowledge. Severe storms and associated storm surge, sea level rise, and land subsidence coupled with increasing populations and densely populated, aging critical infrastructure often leave coastal regions and their communities extremely vulnerable. The integration of observations and models allow for a comprehensive understanding of the compounding risk experienced in coastal regions and enables individuals in all positions make risk-informed decisions. This initiative uses a representative storm surge case as a baseline to produce flood inundation maps. These maps predict building level impacts at current day and for sea level rise (SLR) and subsidence scenarios of the future in order to inform critical decisions at both the tactical and strategic levels. To accomplish this analysis, the mid-Atlantic CAIR project brings together Federal research activities with academia to examine coastal hazards in multiple ways: 1) reanalysis of impacts from 2011 Hurricane Irene, using numerical weather modeling in combination with coastal surge and hydrodynamic, urban inundation modeling to evaluate combined impact scenarios considering SLR and subsidence, 2) remote sensing of flood extent from available optical imagery, 3) adding value to remotely sensed flood maps through depth predictions, and 4) examining coastal subsidence as measured through time-series analysis of synthetic aperture radar observations. Efforts and results are published via ArcGIS story maps to communicate neighborhoods and infrastructure most vulnerable to changing conditions. Story map features enable time-aware flood mapping using hydrodynamic models, photographic comparison of flooding following Hurricane Irene, as well as visualization of heightened risk in the future due to SLR and land subsidence.

Rogers, Laura↗

NASA NTRS2017

A View from Above: Earth Observations

Since the 1960s, satellites have been looking down at the Earth to monitor weather patterns and track severe storms, observe how our land surface is changing and responding to hydrometerological extremes, and even to sense how the Earth's crust is deforming from earthquakes and volcanoes. Space and airborne platforms can provide unique views of the disaster lifecycle, informing pre-event mitigation and preparedness, emergency response following an event, and monitoring longer-term recovery. These remotely-sensed data, products and models can provide a global perspective to see beyond administrative boundaries, reach remote places where in situ observations are di cult or non-existent, and provide the necessary context and situational awareness to aid in disaster response. So how do these platforms work? Instruments aboard satellites use different portions of the electromagnetic spectrum to passively or actively observe energy across a range of wavelengths, which can be turned into meaningful data on geophysical, atmospheric, and hydrological variables. e US has had a broad range of Earth observation (EO) platforms delivering open data for scientific research and societal benefits for decades. e Landsat programme, a joint initiative between the US Geological Survey (USGS) and NASA, has the world's longest continuous collection of space-based satellite imagery of the Earth, extending from 1972 to present. e Landsat satellites provide visible, near infrared, and thermal data that are used to support emergency response and disaster relief by mapping changes in water during floods, and dramatic land surface changes, including those resulting from landslides, wild res, severe weather, volcanic plumes, and dust storms.

FEMA↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Considerations for the Integration of AAM Technologies in Emergency Response Operations

Since 2016, JAXA and NASA have partnered to investigate the safe and efficient integration of unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in disaster response operations. Through the collaboration, supporting systems from the respective agencies have been successfully integrated and demonstrated in multiple activities ranging from localized simulations and flight tests to large-scale national disaster drills. As the collaboration has matured and a new NASA project formulated, the next steps in progressing the goals of the partnership activity are the alignment and potential informing of standards related to disaster response operations. This presentation is the first public outreach to the ASTM standards organization to promote awareness of the ongoing work and to identify areas of potential engagement to develop necessary standards.

disaster response↗

NASA NTRS2024

ENLIGHTEN: Electrical Network Line Inspection Guided by High-Speed Technology & Electromagnetic Navigation

Natural disasters are a major cause of power outages, primarily due to their damage to power line infrastructure. As a result, the current state of power maintenance, with a heavy reliance on manual labor, is in trouble. Its lack of speed and autonomy must be addressed to ensure power security for households and institutions worldwide. This innovative approach explores how High-Speed Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (HSUAV) technology can inspect power line infrastructure rapidly in response to natural disaster scenarios. The HSUAV technology will be accompanied by enhanced sensory equipment including light detection and ranging (LiDAR), thermal imaging, and electromagnetic field (EMF) navigation. It would also be supplemented by innovative forms of machine learning models and recharging systems to efficiently detect anomalies in power line infrastructure. The proposed system, ENLIGHTEN, can help restore power in affected communities after a devastating natural disaster, greatly improving relief efforts. In the future, ENLIGHTEN can be expanded beyond the United States and shared worldwide, effectively mitigating the consequences on a larger scale.

UAV systems, Power line management, Natural disast↗

DOE OSTI2025

LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update: Jamaica After Hurricane Melissa (V1)

During a natural disaster such as Hurricane Melissa, understanding where people are located is critical for situational awareness, operational planning and humanitarian support and consequence assessment. Traditional population datasets focus on mapping populations based on residential, or "business-as-usual" scenarios. However, natural disasters can create disruptions in daily routines of population in addition to the magnitude of the population displacement, depending on the type, duration, context, and location of the event. The Geospatial Science and Human Security Division at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) produced this latest LandScan Mosaic Rapid Population Update for Jamaica following Hurricane Melissa, a category 5 hurricane that made landfall on Jamaica on October 28 2025. This Rapid Population Update captures the immediate population displacement following the hurricane using a combination of open-source building damage assessment data from Microsoft, flood exposure data from the Global Flood Monitoring service, reported population displacement information, and humanitarian shelter locations from the Jamaican Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management and the underlying LandScan Mosaic Jamaica as a base population.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1977

Distress detection, location, and communications using advanced space technology

This paper briefly introduces a concept for low-cost, global, day-night, all-weather disaster warning and assistance. Evolving, advanced space technology with passive radio frequency reflectors in conjunction with an imaging synthetic aperture radar is employed to detect, identify, locate, and provide passive communication with earth users in distress. This concept evolved from a broad NASA research on new global search and rescue techniques. Appropriate airborne radar test results from this research are reviewed and related to potential disaster applications. The analysis indicates the approach has promise for disaster communications relative to floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms.

Sivertson, W. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Distress detection, location, and communications using advanced space technology

Sivertson, W. E., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Specification of parameters for development of a spatial database for drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel

Parameters were described for spatial database to facilitate drought monitoring and famine early warning in the African Sahel. The proposed system, referred to as the African Drought and Famine Information System (ADFIS) is ultimately recommended for implementation with the NASA/FEMA Spatial Analysis and Modeling System (SAMS), a GIS/Dymanic Modeling software package, currently under development. SAMS is derived from FEMA'S Integration Emergency Management Information System (IEMIS) and the Pacific Northwest Laborotory's/Engineering Topographic Laboratory's Airland Battlefield Environment (ALBE) GIS. SAMS is primarily intended for disaster planning and resource management applications with the developing countries. Sources of data for the system would include the Developing Economics Branch of the U.S. Dept. of Agriculture, the World Bank, Tulane University School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine's Famine Early Warning Systems (FEWS) Project, the USAID's Foreign Disaster Assistance Section, the World Resources Institute, the World Meterological Institute, the USGS, the UNFAO, UNICEF, and the United Nations Disaster Relief Organization (UNDRO). Satellite imagery would include decadal AVHRR imagery and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values from 1981 to the present for the African continent and selected Landsat scenes for the Sudan pilot study. The system is initially conceived for the MicroVAX 2/GPX, running VMS. To facilitate comparative analysis, a global time-series database (1950 to 1987) is included for a basic set of 125 socio-economic variables per country per year. A more detailed database for the Sahelian countries includes soil type, water resources, agricultural production, agricultural import and export, food aid, and consumption. A pilot dataset for the Sudan with over 2,500 variables from the World Bank's ANDREX system, also includes epidemiological data on incidence of kwashiorkor, marasmus, other nutritional deficiencies, and synergistically-related infectious diseases.

Rochon, Gilbert L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Applications of the INTELSAT system to remote health care

INTELSAT, the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization, is a not-for-profit commercial cooperate of 124 member nations, created on 20 August 1964. It owns and operates a global system of communications satellites that provides international telecommunications services to 180 countries, territories, and dependencies, and domestic telecommunications services to 40 nations. INTELSAT has actively encouraged the use of satellites for both telemedicine and disaster relief. Topics discussed include: INTELSAT domestic/regional services; use of transportable antennas; INTELNET; using the existing telecommunications infrastructure for remote health care applications: Project Access; INTELSAT's role in disaster telecommunications efforts; and how INTELSAT's existing infrastructure can be used for disaster telecommunications.

Maleter, Andrea↗

NASA NTRS2004

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica, composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico, make up only a small fraction of the world's land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet's biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica's biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, D. E.↗

NASA NTRS2005

SIAM-SERVIR: An Environmental Monitoring and Decision Support System for Mesoamerica

In 2002/2003 NASA, the World Bank and the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) joined with the Central American Commission for Environment and Development (CCAD) to develop an advanced decision support system for Mesoamerica (named SERVIR) as part of the Mesoamerican Environmental Information System (SIAM). Mesoamerica - composed of the seven Central American countries and the five southernmost states of Mexico - make up only a small fraction of the world s land surface. However, the region is home to seven to eight percent of the planet s biodiversity (14 biosphere reserves, 31 Ramsar sites, 8 world heritage sites, 589 protected areas) and 45 million people including more than 50 different ethnic groups. Today Mesoamerica s biological and cultural diversity is severely threatened by extensive deforestation, illegal logging, water pollution, and uncontrolled slash and burn agriculture. Additionally, Mesoamerica's distinct geology and geography result in disproportionate vulnerability to natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, drought, and volcanic eruptions. NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, together with the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) and the SIAM-SERVIR partners are developing state-of-the-art decision support tools for environmental monitoring as well as disaster prevention and mitigation in Mesoamerica. These partners are contributing expertise in space-based observation with information management technologies and intimate knowledge of local ecosystems to create a system that is being used by scientists, educators, and policy makers to monitor and forecast ecological changes, respond to natural disasters and better understand both natural and human induced effects. In its first year of development and operation, the SIAM-SERVIR project has already yielded valuable information on Central American fires, weather conditions, and the first ever real-time data on red tides. This paper presents the progress thus far in the development of SIAM-SERVIR and the plans for the future.

Irwin, Daniel E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Flood and Landslide Applications of Near Real-time Satellite Rainfall Products

Floods and associated landslides are one of the most widespread natural hazards on Earth, responsible for tens of thousands of deaths and billions of dollars in property damage every year. During 1993-2002, over 1000 of the more than 2,900 natural disasters reported were due to floods. These floods and associated landslides claimed over 90,000 lives, affected over 1.4 billion people and cost about $210 billion. The impact of these disasters is often felt most acutely in less developed regions. In many countries around the world, satellite-based precipitation estimation may be the best source of rainfall data due to lack of surface observing networks. Satellite observations can be of essential value in improving our understanding of the occurrence of hazardous events and possibly in lessening their impact on local economies and in reducing injuries, if they can be used to create reliable warning systems in cost-effective ways. This article addressed these opportunities and challenges by describing a combination of satellite-based real-time precipitation estimation with land surface characteristics as input, with empirical and numerical models to map potential of landslides and floods. In this article, a framework to detect floods and landslides related to heavy rain events in near-real-time is proposed. Key components of the framework are: a fine resolution precipitation acquisition system; a comprehensive land surface database; a hydrological modeling component; and landslide and debris flow model components. A key precipitation input dataset for the integrated applications is the NASA TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation estimates. This dataset provides near real-time precipitation at a spatial-temporal resolution of 3 hours and 0.25deg x 0.25deg. By careful integration of remote sensing and in-situ observations, and assimilation of these observations into hydrological and landslide/debris flow models with surface topographic information, prediction of useful probabilistic maps of landslide and floods for emergency management in a timely manner is possible. Early results shows that the potential exists for successful application of satellite precipitation data in improving/developing global monitoring systems for flood/landslide disaster preparedness and management. The scientific and technological prototype can be first applied in a representative test-bed and then the information deliverables for the region can be tailored to the societal and economic needs of the represented affected countries.

Hong, Yang↗

NASA NTRS2005

Introduction and Mission Response Team (MRT)

On February 1, 2003 the Space Shuttle Columbia, returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts, disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana. Observers on the ground filmed breakup of the spacecraft. Debris fell along a 567 statute mile track from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana; the largest ever recorded debris field. At the time of the accident the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) flight surgeon on-duty at the Mission Control Center (MCC) in Houston, Texas initiated the medical contingency response. The DOD surgeon at Patrick Air Force Base was notified, NASA medical personnel were recalled and the services of Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) were requested. Subsequent to the accident the NASA flight surgeons that had supported the crew on orbit now provided medical support to the crewmember s families. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and numerous other federal, state and local agencies along with the citizens of Texas and Louisiana responded to the disaster. Search and recovery was managed from a Disaster Field Office (DFO) established in Lufkin, Texas. Mishap Investigation Team (MIT) medical operations were managed from Barksdale Air Force Base, Louisiana. Accident investigation teams (Columbia Accident Investigation Task Force (CAITF) and Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB)) appointed immediately after the disaster included current and former authorities in space medicine. In August 2003, the CAIB concluded its investigation and released its findings in a report published in February 2004.

Pool, Sam↗

NASA NTRS2009

Evaluating Failures and Near Misses in Human Spaceflight History for Lessons for Future Human Spaceflight

There have been a number of studies done in the past drawn on lessons learned with regard to human loss-of-life events. Generally, the systemic causes and proximate causes for fatal events have both been examined in considerable detail. However, an examination of near-fatal accidents and failures that narrowly missed being fatal could be equally useful, not only in detecting causes, both proximate and systemic, but also for determining what factors averted disaster, what design decisions and/or operator actions prevented catastrophe. Additionally, review of risk factors for upcoming or future programs will often look at trending statistics, generally focusing on failure/success statistics. Unfortunately, doing so can give a skewed or misleading view of past reliability or a reliability that cannot be presumed to apply to a new program. One reason for this might be that failure/success criteria aren't the same across programs, but also that apparent success can hide systemic faults that, under other circumstances, can be fatal to a program with different parameters. A program with a number of near misses can look more reliable than a consistently healthy program with a single out-of-family failure and provide very misleading data if it is not examined in detail. This is particularly true for a manned space program where failure/success includes more than making a particular orbit. Augmenting reliability evaluations with this near miss data can provide insight and expand on the limitations of a strictly pass/fail evaluation. Even more importantly, a thorough understanding of these near miss events can identify conditions that prevented fatalities. Those conditions may be key to a programs reliability, but, without insight to the repercussions if such conditions were not in place, their importance may not be readily clear. As programs mature and political and fiscal responsibilities come to the fore, often there is considerable incentive to eliminate unnecessary conservatism, design margin, redundancy, operational support, testing, training, or safety oversight. An evaluation that demonstrates how these features and capabilities averted disaster can ensure processes that saved lives or missions are not discarded without appropriate review and understanding. Close examination of accidents that almost were can also highlight differences in design from one program to another, either justifying reliability comparisons or negating them. It can also provide considerable insight into how those saving factors were developed and implemented so that similar methods can be used to ensure appropriate life-saving and mission saving factors can be developed, even for a dissimilar space program. The lessons are appropriate for seasoned manned space programs and agencies, but crucial for untried agencies and organizations that are interested in sending man into space. The large body of publicly available near miss and accident data available provide invaluable insight into programmatic, technical, and even political issues that can be addressed before they impact safety. In this paper, we examine a number of these near misses and accidents and steps a program, agency, or potential spacefaring company might take to improve their chances of success and avoid mission or safety disasters using this data.

Barr, Stephanie↗

NASA NTRS2010

World, We Have Problems: Simulation for Large Complex, Risky Projects, and Events

Prior to a spacewalk during the NASA STS/129 mission in November 2009, Columbia Broadcasting System (CBS) correspondent William Harwood reported astronauts, "were awakened again", as they had been the day previously. Fearing something not properly connected was causing a leak, the crew, both on the ground and in space, stopped and checked everything. The alarm proved false. The crew did complete its work ahead of schedule, but the incident reminds us that correctly connecting hundreds and thousands of entities, subsystems and systems, finding leaks, loosening stuck valves, and adding replacements to very large complex systems over time does not occur magically. Everywhere major projects present similar pressures. Lives are at - risk. Responsibility is heavy. Large natural and human-created disasters introduce parallel difficulties as people work across boundaries their countries, disciplines, languages, and cultures with known immediate dangers as well as the unexpected. NASA has long accepted that when humans have to go where humans cannot go that simulation is the sole solution. The Agency uses simulation to achieve consensus, reduce ambiguity and uncertainty, understand problems, make decisions, support design, do planning and troubleshooting, as well as for operations, training, testing, and evaluation. Simulation is at the heart of all such complex systems, products, projects, programs, and events. Difficult, hazardous short and, especially, long-term activities have a persistent need for simulation from the first insight into a possibly workable idea or answer until the final report perhaps beyond our lifetime is put in the archive. With simulation we create a common mental model, try-out breakdowns of machinery or teamwork, and find opportunity for improvement. Lifecycle simulation proves to be increasingly important as risks and consequences intensify. Across the world, disasters are increasing. We anticipate more of them, as the results of global warming prove more and more ominous-glaciers melting in Bolivia, floods in Saudi Arabia, the Maldives sinking and salt rising along the Nile. Fear grows about potential asteroid crashes and nightly television images raise awareness of victims of floods, hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, fire, tornado, tsunami, bombings, landslides, and cross-boundary criminality. The Red Cross says that disasters impact 250 million people each year. That means that 700,000 people are having a very bad day today. Modeling and simulation is and must be part of the solution.

Elfrey, Priscilla↗