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Tidal Friction in the Earth-Moon System and Laplace Planes: Darwin Redux

The dynamical evolution of the Earth-Moon system due to tidal friction is treated here. George H. Darwin used Laplace planes (also called proper planes) in his study of tidal evolution. The Laplace plane approach is adapted here to the formalisms of W.M. Kaula and P. Goldreich. Like Darwin, the approach assumes a three-body problem: Earth, Moon, and Sun, where the Moon and Sun are point-masses. The tidal potential is written in terms of the Laplace plane angles. The resulting secular equations of motion can be easily integrated numerically assuming the Moon is in a circular orbit about the Earth and the Earth is in a circular orbit about the Sun. For Earth-Moon distances greater than ∼10 Earth radii, the Earth's approximate tidal response can be characterized with a single parameter, which is a ratio: a Love number times the sine of a lag angle divided by another such product. For low parameter values it can be shown that Darwin's low-viscosity molten Earth, M. Ross's and G. Schubert's model of an Earth near melting, and Goldreich's equal tidal lag angles must all give similar histories. For higher parameter values, as perhaps has been the case at times with the ocean tides, the Earth's obliquity may have decreased slightly instead of increased once the Moon's orbit evolved further than 50 Earth radii from the Earth, with possible implications for climate. This is contrast to the other tidal friction models mentioned, which have the obliquity always increasing with time. As for the Moon, its orbit is presently tilted to its Laplace plane by 5.2deg. The equations do not allow the Moon to evolve out of its Laplace plane by tidal friction alone, so that if it was originally in its Laplace plane, the tilt arose with the addition of other mechanisms, such as resonance passages.

Darwin Redux↗

Landsat at 45: How it Changed the Way We See the Earth

On October 24, 1946, more than 10 years before the launch of the first artificial satellite Sputnik, scientists at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico placed a camera on top of a captured German V-2 ballistic missile. As the rocket flew to an altitude of about 65 miles - just above the generally recognized border of outer space - the 35-millimeter motion picture camera snapped a frame every one and a half seconds. Minutes later, the missile came crashing back down and slammed into the ground at more than 340 mph, but the film survived and gave us our first glimpse of Earth from space. Earth Resources Technology Satellite aka Landsat It was images like those first grainy black and white pictures and later those taken by America's first astronauts in the 1960's that inspired the development of the Earth Resources Technology Satellite (ERTS). From the unique vantage point of space, we could now observe Earth using a variety of different instruments to monitor changes over time. The ERTS-1 satellite, wisely renamed Landsat-1, was launched aboard a Delta rocket on July 23, 1972, into a Sun-synchronous polar orbit at an altitude of about 560 miles. In this unique orbit, Landsat could observe the same point on the Earth every 18 days, always with the same solar illumination, allowing for precise monitoring of changes on the ground over time. Landsat-1, derived from the highly successful Nimbus weather satellites, carried two instruments that allowed it to take images not only in visible light but also in infrared, well-suited to track changes in vegetation over time. Designed to last only one year, Landsat-1 actually operated for nearly three years, by which time it had been joined in space by Landsat-2, a near identical copy of the original. Since then, ever more sophisticated instruments were flown aboard Landsat-3 through -8, with Landsat-9 planned for launch in 2020, acquiring millions of images of Earth over more than four decades. At first, images from Landsat were processed by NASA and hardcopies sold to users for a fee, a somewhat tedious process. Since 2008, images have been made available to all interested users by the US Geological Survey (USGS) at no cost via the Internet in near real time. So, how can Landsat help? In short, Landsat looks. And looks. And proves Yogi right. Space-based images from Landsat and other similar satellites offer a unique and critical capability to observe land use over time by providing repetitive observations of the Earth otherwise unavailable. The data provided by the images can be used by scientists and politicians to inform wise decisions in areas such as agriculture, climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, energy, forest management, human health, fire, natural disasters, urban growth and water management. This overview article doesn't allow for examples from each of these disciplines, but details can be found at the following website: https://landsat.gsfc.nasa.gov/how_landsat_helps/. One third of the US economy is influenced by climate, weather and natural hazards, providing strong economic incentives to sustain a healthy space-based Earth observation program. One example, however, may be illustrative of how Landsat and other space-based observations can be helpful in monitoring and documenting some effects of global climate change. It had been noted since the 1970's that permafrost in subarctic areas like Siberia was melting at an accelerating rate. It also became apparent that this led to the formation of hundreds of melt lakes and the liberation of large quantities of methane, a gas that in the short-term has more potent greenhouse effects than carbon dioxide. The methane turned the water in these lakes blue, making them easy to track over time by satellite. Additionally, the newly released methane has been carbon dated to tens of thousands of years ago, meaning that it had remained frozen since the last Ice Age and therefore hadn't been accounted for in models of the Earth's overall carbon balance. Release of sufficient methane by an increasingly warming climate could actually cause a positive feedback loop in global warming, melting more permafrost and releasing yet more methane. Further monitoring by Landsat and other platforms will reveal whether this process is reversible or whether we've passed the tipping point. In addition to the highly successful Landsat series of satellites, NASA and other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operate a fleet of other Earth observing platforms, many with more specific research goals such as monitoring sea ice levels or atmospheric carbon content. Several instruments aboard the International Space Station also contribute to this overall effort to better understand short- and long-term changes to the Earth. Many of these missions are guided by the 2009 Decadal Survey published by the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences. Europe, Russia and China all see the value of space-based Earth observation by deploying their own fleet of satellites.

Uri, John↗

Understanding Machine Learning in Earth Science: A Natural Language Processing Approach

Machine learning (ML) is being increasingly utilized in Earth science research. Benefits of ML include efficiency, reduction of human error, and ability to extract hidden patterns within data. However, the mutual lack of each other’s domain knowledge by ML and Earth science stands as a barrier to timely and effective implementation. Earth science, in particular, faces challenges in generating sample data, compared to those of traditional ML problems such as face recognition or stock predictions, where data is abundant and not lacking in ground truth, which is necessary for labeling. Earth science data are more varying in formats, such as HDF5 and image resolutions, and are not standardized across instruments, even within a given Earth science discipline. Previous studies have been done to outline the specific challenges that Earth science faces with ML, while others have focused on using existing publications to mine information efficiently. Other resources such as Scikit-Learn have developed decision trees for choosing appropriate machine learning algorithms, but application within Earth science subjects becomes much more complex. For the current study, we propose a methodology and tool that aids in implementation of ML in Earth science using natural language processing (NLP). Our work comprises three main parts: (1) analyzing existing publications related to ML and Earth science, using natural language processing: (2) extracting from the publications information on ML models subjects in Earth Science: and (3) visualizing the extracted relationships as a network graph. The resulting network graph should aid the Earth science communities in applying optimal ML algorithms and guiding data preparation through visualization of similar studies. The network graph and analysis of document similarity will be the basis of our next step, which is to develop a decision tree for selecting optimal machine learning methodologies for specified Earth science applications.

Zheng, Laura↗

Rare Earth Production in the United States: A Concise Review of Resource Development and Commercial Processes

This review article presents a concise review of estimated resources, processing methods and challenges involved in domestic rare earth mining projects in the United States (US). It also highlights the current status of major mining projects, anticipated rare earth production in the near future, and commercial projects utilizing non-traditional feedstocks for rare earth production and recycling. Based on the current industry outlook, opportunities for R&D have also been highlighted. Perspective on domestic rare earth production capability is essential because global rare earth production is currently dominated by China. Given potential export controls by China, this imbalance has created supply chain risk. The US and other countries have limited rare earth production capacity and relatively little expertise in rare earth processing. However, in the last decade, efforts have been made by several nations, including the US, to reduce their reliance on China for rare earth and other critical minerals. The US is currently investing in projects to develop domestic rare earth separation and refining capacity. These projects are discussed here. When backed by R&D and government support, these projects have potential to make significant progress towards establishment of domestic rare earth separation capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Prospects for Future Human Space Flight Missions to Near-Earth Asteroids

The forthcoming Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor space telescope is a foundational asset designed to complete NASA’s congressionally-mandated goal of cataloging ≥90% of NEOs ≥140 meters in size as soon as practical, and discover Earth impactors far in advance. NEO Surveyor is also critical to near-Earth asteroid (NEA) exploration because it will find suitable low-Δv NEAs for robotic and human missions, often on Earth-like orbits with long synodic periods. Such NEAs have usually not been detected until imminent Earth launch opportunities because they were not observable until close to Earth. Discovering them far enough in advance to deploy missions requires a deep-space infrared survey telescope such as NEO Surveyor. In addition to posing hazards and being scientifically important, NEAs contain resources, such as water (OH), that could be utilized off-Earth. They also offer unique opportunities for the most ambitious human voyages ever undertaken. The Apollo program forever changed humanity’s perspective by showing us Earthrise from our Moon through human eyes. Crewed missions to NEAs will forever change our perspective again by showing us Earth as a distant point of light in the heavens as seen from an asteroid by astronauts. Planetary defense endeavors to understand asteroid and comet impact risks and develop mitigation capabilities. NEA exploration is synergistic in multiple ways. NEO Surveyor will discover and help characterize Earth impactors and accessible NEAs. Heavy-lift launch is highly enabling for both human NEA missions and planetary defense. Reconnaissance missions for planetary defense can also characterize NEAs prior to crewed missions. In situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems may be applicable to deflecting or destroying hazardous NEAs. NEA characterization data critically inform planetary defense efforts and indicate NEA types suitable for human exploration or ISRU. In 2010, NASA performed the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Human Space Flight (HSF) Accessible Targets Study (NHATS), creating an automated online system monitoring mission accessibility of NEAs 2 . NHATS database NEAs meet criteria that require less total mission Δv and/or round-trip mission duration than the Martian surface or even Mars orbit. There are currently 4,658 NHATS NEAs, and many rival or exceed lunar orbit/surface accessibility. Thus, NHATS NEAs could be explored by humans prior to attempting a Mars mission. Human missions to NEAs would test human-rated spacecraft systems with less cost and risk than Mars missions. Thus, human missions to NEAs are compelling in their own right while also providing prudent preparation for more demanding Mars missions. Lunar missions can offer similar opportunities, but they differ from NEA missions in important ways. Lunar missions pose less demanding psychological challenges to crew and ground staff. Earth light-time delay for communications is significantly longer during NEA missions. NEA missions are available that require more propulsion system consumables than lunar missions but less than Mars missions. In this paper, we summarize NEA accessibility for human missions, discuss motivations for such missions, survey knowledge about NEAs that informs future human missions, present exemplar mission opportunities to the currently known NHATS NEAs, and describe future work towards enabling human NEA missions.

Near-Earth asteroids↗

Cooperative Agreement To Analyze variabiLity, change and predictabilitY in the earth SysTem (CATALYST)

CATALYST proposes to perform foundational coordinated research in a team-oriented collaborative effort aimed at advancing a robust understanding of modes of Earth system variability and change using models, observations and process studies. The proposed research will address the DOE/BER mission by exploring the limits to predictability, identifying fundamental underlying mechanisms, quantifying interactions among modes of variability, and discovering tipping points in the Earth system to understand the current and future impacts of these phenomena on regional and global climate. Four fundamental gaps are identified in our knowledge of the Earth system: 1) What are the limits to predictability on various timescales? 2) What are the interactions among modes of Earth system variability? 3) How may modes of Earth system variability change in response to changes in external forcing, and what are the tipping points involved with those changes? 4) How are high impact events connected to modes of Earth system variability and how may they change in the future? Related to those gaps in our knowledge, we formulate four research objectives to address those gaps using a combination of Earth system models (ESMs) and machine learning (ML) methods. Research Objective 1 (RO1) addresses the first gap above and proposes to understand modes of variability and their limits of predictability on subseasonal to decadal timescales using ESMs and ML. Research Objective 2 (RO2) addresses the second gap and proposes to use a hierarchy of models to understand relevant processes and feedbacks related to how modes of variability interact with each other. Research Objective 3 (RO3) is designed to study the third gap and proposes to examine the role of external forcings in changes of modes of Earth system variability and their interactions, and the likelihood and predictability of tipping points and irreversible changes. Research Objective 4 (RO4) will address the fourth gap and proposes to use high resolution ESMs, regionally refined models (RRMs), and ML methods to investigate the relationships between high impact events (e.g. flash droughts and precipitation extremes, atmospheric rivers (ARs), tropical cyclones (TCs), storm surge/sea level rise), the synoptic systems that produce them, and their changes related to modes of Earth system variability. The research will involve the use of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), CMIP multi-model data sets, a hierarchy of simpler models, and numerous observational data sets. In the course of the proposed research, CATALYST will contribute to metrics and diagnostics that will be integrated in Coordinated Model Evaluation Capabilities (CMEC), particularly with regards to the Quasi-biennial Oscillation (QBO) and its interactions with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), high atmospheric pressure blocking, and new precipitation metrics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Continuous Wave CO2 Doppler Lidar Calibration Using Earth Surface Targets in Laboratory and Airborne Measurements

Routine backscatter, beta, measurements by an airborne or space-based lidar from designated earth surfaces with known and fairly uniform beta properties can potentially offer lidar calibration opportunities. This can in turn be used to obtain accurate atmospheric aerosol and cloud beta measurements on large spatial scales. This is important because achieving a precise calibration factor for large pulsed lidars then need not rest solely on using a standard hard target procedure. Furthermore, calibration from designated earth surfaces would provide an inflight performance evaluation of the lidar. Hence, with active remote sensing using lasers with high resolution data, calibration of a space-based lidar using earth's surfaces will be extremely useful. The calibration methodology using the earth's surface initially requires measuring beta of various earth surfaces simulated in the laboratory using a focused continuous wave (CW) CO2 Doppler lidar and then use these beta measurements as standards for the earth surface signal from airborne or space-based lidars. Since beta from the earth's surface may be retrieved at different angles of incidence, beta would also need to be measured at various angles of incidences of the different surfaces. In general, Earth-surface reflectance measurements have been made in the infrared, but the use of lidars to characterize them and in turn use of the Earth's surface to calibrate lidars has not been made. The feasibility of this calibration methodology is demonstrated through a comparison of these laboratory measurements with actual earth surface beta retrieved from the same lidar during the NASA/Multi-center Airborne Coherent Atmospheric Wind Sensor (MACAWS) mission on NASA's DC8 aircraft from 13 - 26 September, 1995. For the selected earth surface from the airborne lidar data, an average beta for the surface was established and the statistics of lidar efficiency was determined. This was compared with the actual lidar efficiency determined with the standard calibrating hard target.

Jarzembski, Maurice A.↗

Sulfur in Earth's Mantle and Its Behavior During Core Formation

The density of Earth's outer core requires that about 5-10% of the outer core be composed of elements lighter than Fe-Ni; proposed choices for the "light element" component of Earth's core include H, C, O, Si, S, and combinations of these elements [e.g. 1]. Though samples of Earth's core are not available, mantle samples contain elemental signatures left behind from the formation of Earth's core. The abundances of siderophile (metal-loving) elements in Earth's mantle have been used to gain insight into the early accretion and differentiation history of Earth, the process by which the core and mantle formed, and the composition of the core [e.g. 2-4]. Similarly, the abundance of potential light elements in Earth's mantle could also provide constraints on Earth's evolution and core composition. The S abundance in Earth's mantle is 250 ( 50) ppm [5]. It has been suggested that 250 ppm S is too high to be due to equilibrium core formation in a high pressure, high temperature magma ocean on early Earth and that the addition of S to the mantle from the subsequent accretion of a late veneer is consequently required [6]. However, this earlier work of Li and Agee [6] did not parameterize the metalsilicate partitioning behavior of S as a function of thermodynamic variables, limiting the different pressure and temperature conditions during core formation that could be explored. Here, the question of explaining the mantle abundance of S is revisited, through parameterizing existing metal-silicate partitioning data for S and applying the parameterization to core formation in Earth.

Chabot, Nancy L.↗

The Earth's Plasmasphere

The Earth's plasmasphere is an inner part of the magneteosphere. It is located just outside the upper ionosphere located in Earth's atmosphere. It is a region of dense, cold plasma that surrounds the Earth. Although plasma is found throughout the magnetosphere, the plasmasphere usually contains the coldest plasma. Here's how it works: The upper reaches of our planet's atmosphere are exposed to ultraviolet light from the Sun, and they are ionized with electrons that are freed from neutral atmospheric particles. The results are electrically charged negative and positive particles. The negative particles are electrons, and the positive particles are now called ions (formerly atoms and molecules). If the density of these particles is low enough, this electrically charged gas behaves differently than it would if it were neutral. Now this gas is called plasma. The atmospheric gas density becomes low enough to support the conditions for a plasma around earth at about 90 kilometers above Earth's surface. The electrons in plasma gain more energy, and they are very low in mass. They move along Earth's magnetic field lines and their increased energy is enough to escape Earth's gravity. Because electrons are very light, they don't have to gain too much kinetic energy from the Sun's ultraviolet light before gravity loses its grip on them. Gravity is not all that holds them back, however. As more and more electrons begin to escape outward, they leave behind a growing net positive electric charge in the ionosphere and create a growing net negative electric charge above the ionosphere; an electric field begins to develop (the Pannekoek-Rosseland E-field). Thus, these different interacting charges result in a positively charged ionosphere and negatively charged region of space above it. Very quickly this resulting electric field opposed upward movement of the electrons out of the ionosphere. The electrons still have this increased energy, however, so the electric field doesn't just go away. Instead the ions react to the electric field and are attracted to it. They begin to move upward out of the ionosphere too. Since all this happens on a small scale, it simply looks like the electrons and ions move out of the ionosphere together. Ultimately the effect is that the lighter ions of hydrogen, helium and oxygen are able to escape from the ionosphere. For a planet like Earth with a strong planetary magnetic field, these outward moving particles remain trapped near the planet unless other processes further draw them away and into interplanetary space. As is always the case with nature, there is much more story to tell about this "upwardly mobile" plasma and these other processes. Over only a short time period of hours and days this escaping plasma can, in some places, build up in concentration until an equilibrium is reached where as much plasma flows inward into the ionosphere as flows outward. This "donut shaped" region of cold (about 1 electron volt in energy) plasma encircling the planet is called the plasmasphere. Because of space weather storms (kind of a generic phrase for those other processes) this cold and dense plasmaspheric plasma can actually end up all over the place. Generally, that region of space where plasma from the ionosphere has the time to build up to become identified as the plasmasphere rotates or nearly rotates with the Earth. That region shrinks in size with increased space weather activity and expands or refills during times of inactivity. As it shrinks with increasing activity, some of the plasmasphere is drawn away from its main body (plasmaspheric erosion) in the sunward direction toward the boundary in space between that region dominated by Earth's magnetic field and the much larger region dominated by the Sun's magnetic field. The region dominated by Earth's magnetic field is called the magnetosphere. The larger Sun dominated region is called the heliosphere.

plasmasphere↗

Early Earth and Rocky Extrasolar Planet Characterization

Scientists are currently designing instruments, telescopes, and spacecraft to search for evidence of life beyond Earth. This search for life beyond Earth comes with an expectation to detect life that is different than the life found on modern-day Earth. But scientists will also be expected to provide compelling proof behind any claims that we are not alone. These two expectations are seemingly at odds with each other, because it will be easiest to provide compelling evidence for life when we have a deep understanding of the life we are looking at.The study of Earth history provides a means to reconcile this tension. Different periods of Earth history present us with biospheres that are dramatically different from modern-day Earth, but for which we have abundant data. This informs our understanding of habitability, because of the variety of global chemical and climatic conditions in Earth history for which we know life has thrived. The study of Earth history also informs our understanding of how to detect life; as the global influences of life have completely changed, so have the detectable features of Earth's biosphere.The appreciation of our home planet as a tightly coupled system also provides us top-level lessons for how to search for an even broader set of biospheres with a wider variety of detectable features. The study of Earth history has taught us that life is a both a function of and critical forcing on the planetary environment. Numerical models of these interactions can by driven by our understanding of Earth history, and be validated against the geological and geochemical data. These models can then be applied to a wider variety of planetary conditions. This will help scientists determine what kinds of life are possible, and eventually help them recognize and confirm the presence of life on rocky planets around other stars.

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn D.↗

Predicting the Earth encounters of (99942) Apophis

Arecibo delay-Doppler measurements of (99942) Apophis in 2005 and 2006 resulted in a five standard-deviation trajectory correction to the optically predicted close approach distance to Earth in 2029. The radar measurements reduced the volume of the statistical uncertainty region entering the encounter to 7.3% of the pre-radar solution, but increased the trajectory uncertainty growth rate across the encounter by 800% due to the closer predicted approach to the Earth. A small estimated Earth impact probability remained for 2036. With standard-deviation plane-of-sky position uncertainties for 2007-2010 already less than 0.2 arcsec, the best near-term ground-based optical astrometry can only weakly affect the trajectory estimate. While the potential for impact in 2036 will likely be excluded in 2013 (if not 2011) using ground-based optical measurements, approximations within the Standard Dynamical Model (SDM) used to estimate and predict the trajectory from the current era are sufficient to obscure the difference between a predicted impact and a miss in 2036 by altering the dynamics leading into the 2029 encounter. Normal impact probability assessments based on the SDM become problematic without knowledge of the object's physical properties; impact could be excluded while the actual dynamics still permit it. Calibrated position uncertainty intervals are developed to compensate for this by characterizing the minimum and maximum effect of physical parameters on the trajectory. Uncertainty in accelerations related to solar radiation can cause between 82 and 4720 Earth-radii of trajectory change relative to the SDM by 2036. If an actionable hazard exists, alteration by 2-10% of Apophis' total absorption of solar radiation in 2018 could be sufficient to produce a six standard-deviation trajectory change by 2036 given physical characterization; even a 0.5% change could produce a trajectory shift of one Earth-radius by 2036 for all possible spin-poles and likely masses. Planetary ephemeris uncertainties are the next greatest source of systematic error, causing up to 23 Earth-radii of uncertainty. The SDM Earth point-mass assumption introduces an additional 2.9 Earth-radii of prediction error by 2036. Unmodeled asteroid perturbations produce as much as 2.3 Earth-radii of error. We find no future small-body encounters likely to yield an Apophis mass determination prior to 2029. However, asteroid (144898) 2004 VD17, itself having a statistical Earth impact in 2102, will probably encounter Apophis at 6.7 lunar distances in 2034, their uncertainty regions coming as close as 1.6 lunar distances near the center of both SDM probability distributions.

Orbit determination↗

Rotation of a Moonless Earth

We numerically explore the obliquity (axial tilt) variations of a hypothetical moonless Earth. Previous work has shown that the Earth's Moon stabilizes Earth's obliquity such that it remains within a narrow range, between 22.1 deg and 24.5 deg. Without lunar influence, a frequency-map analysis by Laskar et al. showed that the obliquity could vary between 0 deg. and 85 deg. This has left an impression in the astrobiology community that a large moon is necessary to maintain a habitable climate on an Earth-like planet. Using a modified version of the orbital integrator mercury, we calculate the obliquity evolution for moonless Earths with various initial conditions for up to 4 Gyr. We find that while obliquity varies significantly more than that of the actual Earth over 100,000 year timescales, the obliquity remains within a constrained range, typically 20-25 deg. in extent, for timescales of hundreds of millions of years. None of our Solar System integrations in which planetary orbits behave in a typical manner show obliquity accessing more than 65% of the full range allowed by frequency-map analysis. The obliquities of moonless Earths that rotate in the retrograde direction are more stable than those of pro-grade rotators. The total obliquity range explored for moonless Earths with rotation periods shorter than 12 h is much less than that for slower-rotating moonless Earths. A large moon thus does not seem to be needed to stabilize the obliquity of an Earth-like planet on timescales relevant to the development of advanced life.

orbital integrator mercury↗

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources and Its Activities

The National Academies’ Board on Earth Sciences and Resources (BESR) and its standing committees provide an ongoing forum for advancing the understanding and communication of Earth sciences and resource topics, including emerging topics and innovative techniques. BESR activities help to provide evidence-based information to members of the executive and legislative branches of the federal government, the private sector, states and tribes, academia, non-governmental organizations, and the public to support decision-making. BESR and its standing Committee on Solid Earth Geophysics (COSEG), also supported by this award, fulfill this role through development and administration of consensus studies, as well as workshops and other convening activities related to the Earth sciences; overseeing selected activities of the Board’s standing committees, such as disciplinary meetings and webinars; and communicating, sharing information, and providing opportunities for interaction and exchange among technical and non-technical stakeholders. The core support received from DOE helps BESR and COSEG maintain a central body of volunteer experts and National Academies staff who can respond to pressing needs and requests from federal sponsors and other members of the Earth science community, to maintain the health and relevance of the Earth sciences discipline, and to provide the Earth science community with a privileged interface to the government to support scientific and engineering advances and decision making related to Earth sciences and engineering. Initiation and oversight of Earth science activities at the National Academies is an enduring function of the BESR and COSG that helps to ensure development and completion of projects and activities that are responsive to the needs of sponsors and the broader Earth science and research enterprise.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Asteroid and comet flux in the neighborhood of the earth

Significant advances in the knowledge and understanding of the flux of large solid objects in the neighborhood of Earth have occurred. The best estimates of the collision rates with Earth of asteroids and comets and the corresponding production of impact craters are presented. Approximately 80 Earth-crossing asteroids were discovered through May 1988. Among 42 new Earth-crossing asteroids found in the last decade, two-thirds were discovered from observations at Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar 46 cm Schmidt. Probabilities of collision with Earth have been calculated for about two-thirds of the known Earth-crossing asteroids. When multiplied by the estimated population of Earth-crossers, this yields an estimated present rate of collision about 65 pct higher than that previously reported. Spectrophotometric data obtained chiefly in the last decade show that the large majority of obvserved Earth-crossers are similar to asteroids found in the inner part of the main belt. The number of discovered Earth-crossing comets is more than 4 times greater than the number of known Earth-crossing asteroids, but reliable data on the sizes of comet nuclei are sparse. The flux of comets almost certainly was highly variable over late geologic time, owing to the random perturbation of the Oort comet cloud by stars in the solar neighborhood.

Shoemaker, Eugene M.↗

Discover Earth

Discover Earth is a NASA-sponsored project for teachers of grades 5-12, designed to: (1) enhance understanding of the Earth as an integrated system; (2) enhance the interdisciplinary approach to science instruction; and (3) provide classroom materials that focus on those goals. Discover Earth is conducted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies in collaboration with Dr. Eric Barron, Director, Earth System Science Center, The Pennsylvania State University; and Dr. Robert Hudson, Chair, the Department of Meteorology, University of Maryland at College Park. The enclosed materials: (1) represent only part of the Discover Earth materials; (2) were developed by classroom teachers who are participating in the Discover Earth project; (3) utilize an investigative approach and on-line data; and (4) can be effectively adjusted to classrooms with greater/without technology access. The Discover Earth classroom materials focus on the Earth system and key issues of global climate change including topics such as the greenhouse effect, clouds and Earth's radiation balance, surface hydrology and land cover, and volcanoes and climate change. All the materials developed to date are available on line at (http://www.strategies.org) You are encouraged to submit comments and recommendations about these materials to the Discover Earth project manager, contact information is listed below. You are welcome to duplicate all these materials.

Steele, Colleen↗

Measuring Solar Radiation Incident on Earth: Solar Constant-3 (SOLCON-3)

Life on Earth is possible because the climate conditions on Earth are relatively mild. One element of the climate on Earth, the temperature, is determined by the heat exchanges between the Earth and its surroundings, outer space. The heat exchanges take place in the form of electromagnetic radiation. The Earth gains energy because it absorbs solar radiation, and it loses energy because it emits thermal infrared radiation to cold space. The heat exchanges are in balance: the heat gained by the Earth through solar radiation equals the heat lost through thermal radiation. When the balance is perturbed, a temperature change and hence a climate change of the Earth will occur. One possible perturbation of the balance is the CO2 greenhouse effect: when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, this will reduce the loss of thermal infrared radiation to cold space. Earth will gain more heat and hence the temperature will rise. Another perturbation of the balance can occur through variation of the amount of energy emitted by the sun. When the sun emits more energy, this will directly cause a rise of temperature on Earth. For a long time scientists believed that the energy emitted by the sun was constant. The 'solar constant' is defined as the amount of solar energy received per unit surface at a distance of one astronomical unit (the average distance of Earth's orbit) from the sun. Accurate measurements of the variations of the solar constant have been made since 1978. From these we know that the solar constant varies approximately with the 11-year solar cycle observed in other solar phenomena, such as the occurrence of sunspots, dark spots that are sometimes visible on the solar surface. When a sunspot occurs on the sun, since the spot is dark, the radiation (light) emitted by the sun drops instantaneously. Oddly, periods of high solar activity, when a lot of sunspot numbers increase, correspond to periods when the average solar constant is high. This indicates that the background on which the sunspots occur becomes brighter during high solar activity.

Dominique Crommelynck↗

Defining Top-of-Atmosphere Flux Reference Level for Earth Radiation Budget Studies

To estimate the earth's radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) from satellite-measured radiances, it is necessary to account for the finite geometry of the earth and recognize that the earth is a solid body surrounded by a translucent atmosphere of finite thickness that attenuates solar radiation differently at different heights. As a result, in order to account for all of the reflected solar and emitted thermal radiation from the planet by direct integration of satellite-measured radiances, the measurement viewing geometry must be defined at a reference level well above the earth s surface (e.g., 100 km). This ensures that all radiation contributions, including radiation escaping the planet along slant paths above the earth s tangent point, are accounted for. By using a field-of- view (FOV) reference level that is too low (such as the surface reference level), TOA fluxes for most scene types are systematically underestimated by 1-2 W/sq m. In addition, since TOA flux represents a flow of radiant energy per unit area, and varies with distance from the earth according to the inverse-square law, a reference level is also needed to define satellite-based TOA fluxes. From theoretical radiative transfer calculations using a model that accounts for spherical geometry, the optimal reference level for defining TOA fluxes in radiation budget studies for the earth is estimated to be approximately 20 km. At this reference level, there is no need to explicitly account for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the atmosphere in the earth radiation budget calculation. In this context, therefore, the 20-km reference level corresponds to the effective radiative top of atmosphere for the planet. Although the optimal flux reference level depends slightly on scene type due to differences in effective transmission of solar radiation with cloud height, the difference in flux caused by neglecting the scene-type dependence is less than 0.1%. If an inappropriate TOA flux reference level is used to define satellite TOA fluxes, and horizontal transmission of solar radiation through the planet is not accounted for in the radiation budget equation, systematic errors in net flux of up to 8 W/sq m can result. Since climate models generally use a plane-parallel model approximation to estimate TOA fluxes and the earth radiation budget, they implicitly assume zero horizontal transmission of solar radiation in the radiation budget equation, and do not need to specify a flux reference level. By defining satellite-based TOA flux estimates at a 20-km flux reference level, comparisons with plane-parallel climate model calculations are simplified since there is no need to explicitly correct plane-parallel climate model fluxes for horizontal transmission of solar radiation through a finite earth.

Loeb, N. G.↗

Earth Observations from Space: The First 50 Years of Scientific Achievements

Observing Earth from space over the past 50 years has fundamentally transformed the way people view our home planet. The image of the "blue marble" is taken for granted now, but it was revolutionary when taken in 1972 by the crew on Apollo 17. Since then the capability to look at Earth from space has grown increasingly sophisticated and has evolved from simple photographs to quantitative measurements of Earth properties such as temperature, concentrations of atmospheric trace gases, and the exact elevation of land and ocean. Imaging Earth from space has resulted in major scientific accomplishments; these observations have led to new discoveries, transformed the Earth sciences, opened new avenues of research, and provided important societal benefits by improving the predictability of Earth system processes. This report highlights the scientific achievements made possible by the first five decades of Earth satellite observations by space-faring nations. It follows on a recent report from the National Research Council (NRC) entitled Earth Science and Applications from Space: National Imperatives for the Next Decade and Beyond, also referred to as the "decadal survey." Recognizing the increasing need for space observations, the decadal survey identifies future directions and priorities for Earth observations from space. This companion report was requested by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to highlight, through selected examples, important past contributions of Earth observations from space to our current understanding of the planet.

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