Polar Processes, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Impacts
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Earth Sciences↗
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Effects of organized convection parameterization on the MJO and precipitation in E3SMv1. Part I: Mesoscale heating
Mesoscale organization of convection is typically not represented in global circulation models, and hence its influence on the global circulation is not accounted for. The heating component of a parameterization that represents the dynamical and physical effects of circulations associated with organized convection, referred to as the multiscale coherent structure parameterization (MCSP), is implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1). Numerical simulations are conducted to assess its impact on the simulated climate. Besides E3SMv1 simulations, we performed high-resolution (1 km) simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to determine the temperature tendencies induced by mesoscale convective systems embedded in deep convection. We tuned the free parameters of the MCSP based on the WRF simulations. MCSP heating enhances Kevin wave spectra in E3SMv1, improves the representation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and impacts on mean precipitation that vary with locations and seasons, including a reduction of biases over the tropical Pacific.
Climate Modeling↗
Purple is the new green: biopigments and spectra of Earth-like purple worlds
ABSTRACT With more than 5500 detected exoplanets, the search for life is entering a new era. Using life on Earth as our guide, we look beyond green landscapes to expand our ability to detect signs of surface life on other worlds. While oxygenic photosynthesis gives rise to modern green landscapes, bacteriochlorophyll-based anoxygenic phototrophs can also colour their habitats and could dominate a much wider range of environments on Earth-like exoplanets. Here, we characterize the reflectance spectra of a collection of purple sulfur and purple non-sulfur bacteria from a variety of anoxic and oxic environments. We present models for Earth-like planets where purple bacteria dominate the surface and show the impact of their signatures on the reflectance spectra of terrestrial exoplanets. Our research provides a new resource to guide the detection of purple bacteria and improves our chances of detecting life on exoplanets with upcoming telescopes. Our biological pigment data base for purple bacteria and the high-resolution spectra of Earth-like planets, including ocean worlds, snowball planets, frozen worlds, and Earth analogues, are available online, providing a tool for modellers and observers to train retrieval algorithms, optimize search strategies, and inform models of Earth-like planets, where purple is the new green.
Coelho, Lígia Fonseca (ORCID:0000000150081249)↗
From Fluid Flow to Coupled Processes in Fractured Rock: Recent Advances and New Frontiers
Abstract Quantitative predictions of natural and induced phenomena in fractured rock is one of the great challenges in the Earth and Energy Sciences with far‐reaching economic and environmental impacts. Fractures occupy a very small volume of a subsurface formation but often dominate fluid flow, solute transport and mechanical deformation behavior. They play a central role in CO 2 sequestration, nuclear waste disposal, hydrogen storage, geothermal energy production, nuclear nonproliferation, and hydrocarbon extraction. These applications require predictions of fracture‐dependent quantities of interest such as CO 2 leakage rate, hydrocarbon production, radionuclide plume migration, and seismicity; to be useful, these predictions must account for uncertainty inherent in subsurface systems. Here, we review recent advances in fractured rock research covering field‐ and laboratory‐scale experimentation, numerical simulations, and uncertainty quantification. We discuss how these have greatly improved the fundamental understanding of fractures and one's ability to predict flow and transport in fractured systems. Dedicated field sites provide quantitative measurements of fracture flow that can be used to identify dominant coupled processes and to validate models. Laboratory‐scale experiments fill critical knowledge gaps by providing direct observations and measurements of fracture geometry and flow under controlled conditions that cannot be obtained in the field. Physics‐based simulation of flow and transport provide a bridge in understanding between controlled simple laboratory experiments and the massively complex field‐scale fracture systems. Finally, we review the use of machine learning‐based emulators to rapidly investigate different fracture property scenarios and accelerate physics‐based models by orders of magnitude to enable uncertainty quantification and near real‐time analysis.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Understanding cold electron impact on parallel-propagating whistler chorus waves via moment-based quasilinear theory
Earth's magnetosphere hosts a wide range of collisionless particle populations that interact through various wave-particle processes. Among these, cold electrons, with energies below 100 eV, often dominate the plasma density but remain poorly characterized due to measurement challenges such as spacecraft charging and photoelectron contamination. Understanding the contribution of these cold populations to wave–particle interaction is of significant interest. Recent kinetic simulations identified a secondary drift-driven instability, in which parallel-propagating whistler-mode chorus waves excite oblique electrostatic whistler waves near the resonance cone and Bernstein-mode turbulence. These secondary modes enable a new channel of energy transfer from the parallel-propagating whistler wave to the cold electrons. In this work, we develop a moment-based quasilinear theory of the secondary instabilities to quantify such energy exchange. Our results show that these secondary instabilities persist for a wide range of parameters and, in many cases, lead to nearly complete damping of the primary wave. Such secondary instability might limit the amplitude of parallel-propagating whistler waves in Earth's magnetosphere and might explain why high-amplitude oblique whistler or electron Bernstein waves are rarely observed simultaneously with high-amplitude field-aligned whistler waves in the inner magnetosphere.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Implications of climate change impacts for emission and land use scenario development
Scenarios of future emissions and land use produced by integrated assessment models have traditionally been developed without accounting for how climate change impacts could affect the emissions and land use trajectories themselves. This omission risks skewing our assessments of the plausible range of future emission pathways and associated Earth system changes. Beyond the salience for emission scenario development, a better integrated representation of human and Earth system changes and feedbacks would enable better anticipation of the implications of alternative socio-economic development pathways. We use the Global Change Analysis Model to investigate whether endogenizing several impacts when generating its baseline emission scenario is warranted. We do so by comparing the emissions and land use change that result from the baseline scenario with and without impacts, where impacts are implemented as exogenous changes to water availability, crop and labor productivity, and energy demand and supply. Our results indicate that the effect on global emissions leads to less than 0.1 °C increase in warming by 2100 and therefore do not support endogenizing impacts. This conclusion is conditional on our modeling framework and the specific impact channels represented but is consistent with other studies that have addressed the magnitude of feedbacks by implementing a two-way coupling. However, we do find regional impacts indicating that local economies and well-being measures may be affected significantly.
climate impacts↗
Multi-model analysis of the impact of water vapor on the radiative forcing of volcanic aerosols after the 2022 Hunga Eruption
On 15 January 2022, the Hunga volcano eruption released unprecedented amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere alongside a modest amount of SO 2 . In this work we analyse results from multiple Earth system models as part of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison Project. Our results show a good model agreement over the climatic outcomes of the eruption, overall indicating a significant negative radiative forcing from the Hunga eruption. The multi-model mean of global instantaneous radiative forcing averaged over 2022–2023 is estimated at −0.19 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA), and −0.16 ± 0.06 W m −2 at the surface. Simulations with free-running meteorology and climatological sea surface temperatures and sea ice yield a global mean TOA forcing of −0.14 ± 0.10 W m −2 across two models for the first 2 years, decreasing to −0.09 ± 0.10 W m −2 on average between 2022 and 2027. However, these global values may be underestimated by about 50 %, considering that recent SO 2 injection retrievals suggest nearly twice the amount than the 0.5 Tg-SO 2 used in the protocol. We also find that the contribution from added stratospheric water vapor is minimal and that the injected SO 2 and the resulting formation of stratospheric sulfate dominate the radiative forcing. However, water vapor played a key role in the initial aerosol growth, leading to a stronger negative radiative forcing during the first 6 months after the eruption compared to simulations without water vapor co-injection.
Geosciences↗
Accelerating Informed Local Climate Action by Improving Access to DOE Predictive Modeling and Science-Based Tools
The threat of climate change is becoming increasingly urgent, and local governments across the United States are working to develop and implement climate action plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science, Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) has been developing a range of tools and technologies to help predict the potential multi-faceted impacts from climate change given varying environmental and socioeconomic scenarios. However, local governments have been slow to engage with these scientific assets due to a lack of understanding and awareness. The DOE researchers interviewed highlighted three primary types of resources that could benefit local governments and climate practitioners: climate models, modeled datasets, and scientific journal articles. Although many of these resources are open source and available to the public, there were several challenges identified in translating these resources and their research insights directly to decision-makers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
EarthShine: Observing our world as an exoplanet from the surface of the Moon
NASA’s return to the Moon coincides with explosive growth in exoplanet discovery. Missions are being formulated to search for habitable planets orbiting other stars, making this the ideal time to deploy an instrument suite to the lunar surface to help us recognize a habitable exoplanet when we see it. We present EarthShine, a technically mature, three-instrument suite to observe the whole Earth from the Moon as an exoplanet proxy. EarthShine data will validate and improve models critical for designing missions to image and characterize exoplanets, thus informing observing strategies for flagship missions to directly image exoplanets. EarthShine will answer interconnected questions in Earth and lunar science, exoplanets, and astrobiology, related to the credo “follow the water.” EarthShine can take advantage of current NASA programs to conduct science from the Moon with low-cost, mature space hardware to reduce risk and assure success. Like the 1968 Apollo Earthrise image of our home planet, lonely in the black sky, the appeal of EarthShine to a multidisciplinary array of researchers in Earth Science, Planetary Science, and astrophysics will maximize both its scientific impact and its impact on the general public.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Future water resource shifts in the high desert Southwest of Northern New Mexico, USA
Not Available
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Systematic Evaluation of Atmospheric Forcing, Surface Datasets, and Mesh Effects on Kilometer-Scale Land Surface and River Modeling
Earth system models are advancing toward kilometer-scale resolution to capture local climate impacts and extremes. High-resolution land and river modeling depends on multiple factors, including mesh, surface datasets, and atmospheric forcing, but their relative effects at kilometer scales remain unquantified. We evaluated five Energy Exascale Earth System Model land and river configurations over the Mid-Atlantic region using two mesh (1/8° structured versus variable-resolution unstructured mesh), two surface datasets (default versus newly developed), and three atmospheric forcings (NLDAS2, MSWX, GSWP). Evaluation against satellite, reanalysis, and in situ benchmarks across water, energy, and carbon cycles quantifies how these factors affect model performance. Forcing selection produces the largest bias reductions (12-99% across variables), followed by surface datasets (7-75%) and mesh (up to 21%). Forcing effects vary by variable, with MSWX reducing biases for snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, albedo, temperature, and gross primary productivity, GSWP for snow cover and runoff, and NLDAS for soil moisture and streamflow. The use of newly developed surface datasets improves gross primary productivity (58% bias reduction) and evapotranspiration but increase soil moisture and albedo biases due to current modeling limitations. Variable-resolution unstructured mesh improves the simulation of small-basin streamflow through better capturing drainage networks, though mesh minimally affects other land variables. These findings provide important guidance for high-resolution modeling development and actionable science.
Land and River modeling↗
Hadrophilic light dark matter from the atmosphere
Light sub-GeV dark matter (DM) constitutes an underexplored target, beyond the optimized sensitivity of typical direct DM detection experiments. We comprehensively investigate hadrophilic light DM produced from cosmic-ray collisions with the atmosphere. The resulting relativistic DM, originating from meson decays, can be efficiently observed in variety of experiments, such as XENON1T. We include for the first time decays of η, η' and K + mesons, leading to improved limits for DM masses above few hundred MeV. We incorporate an exact treatment of the DM attenuation in Earth and demonstrate that nuclear form factor effects can significantly impact the resulting testable DM parameter space. Further, we establish projections for upcoming experiments, such as DARWIN, over a wide range of DM masses below the GeV scale.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Progress in Simulating the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation in CMIP Models
The quasi–biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal mean zonal wind is the primary mode of variability in the tropical lower stratosphere. The QBO is characterized by alternating easterly westerly shear layers that descend down from ~10 to 100 hPa. The QBO is also seen in lower stratospheric tropical temperature, water vapor, and ozone and affects tropospheric variability through various teleconnections. We examine here the progress in simulating the QBO in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) models, more specifically in CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 models. We show that the number of models that are able to simulate the QBO has increased from 0 in CMIP3, to 5 in CMIP5, to 15 in CMIP6. While the number of models with an internally generated QBO has tripled from CMIP5 to CMIP6, the fidelity of the simulation averaged over the CMIP models has not improved. We show that CMIP5 and CMIP6 models represent the QBO period and latitudinal extent quite well; however the QBO amplitude is shifted upwards relative to observations resulting in large underestimation of QBO amplitude at all levels below 20 hPa. As a result, the underestimation of QBO amplitude in the lowermost stratosphere and lack of variations downward to the tropopause and below will likely impact the quality of teleconnections seen in the current generation Earth system models.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Role of Tropical Cyclones in Determining ENSO Characteristics
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can effectively modulate global tropical cyclone (TC) activity, but the role TCs may play in determining ENSO characteristics remains unclear. Here we investigate the impact of TC winds on ENSO using a suite of Earth system model experiments where we insert TC winds, extracted from a TC-permitting high-resolution simulation, into a low-resolution model configuration with nearly no intrinsic TCs. The presence of TC winds in the model increases ENSO power and shifts ENSO frequency closer to what we observe. TCs lead to an increase of strong to extreme El Niño events seen in observations and not simulated in the low-resolution model without intrinsic TCs, mainly through enhanced zonal advection feedback and thermocline feedback. Our results indicate that TCs play a fundamental role in producing the ENSO characteristics we experience today in the climate system and point to a two-way climatological interaction between TCs and ENSO.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
IMG/VR v4: an expanded database of uncultivated virus genomes within a framework of extensive functional, taxonomic, and ecological metadata
Viruses are widely recognized as critical members of all microbiomes. Metagenomics enables large-scale exploration of the global virosphere, progressively revealing the extensive genomic diversity of viruses on Earth and highlighting the myriad of ways by which viruses impact biological processes. IMG/VR provides access to the largest collection of viral sequences obtained from (meta)genomes, along with functional annotation and rich metadata. A web interface enables users to efficiently browse and search viruses based on genome features and/or sequence similarity. Here, for this work, we present the fourth version of IMG/VR, composed of >15 million virus genomes and genome fragments, a ≈6-fold increase in size compared to the previous version. These clustered into 8.7 million viral operational taxonomic units, including 231 408 with at least one high-quality representative. Viral sequences in IMG/VR are now systematically identified from genomes, metagenomes, and metatranscriptomes using a new detection approach (geNomad), and IMG standard annotation are complemented with genome quality estimation using CheckV, taxonomic classification reflecting the latest taxonomic standards, and microbial host taxonomy prediction. IMG/VR v4 is available at https://img.jgi.doe.gov/vr, and the underlying data are available to download at https://genome.jgi.doe.gov/portal/IMG_VR.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
The Essential Role of Westerly Wind Bursts in ENSO Dynamics and Extreme Events Quantified in Model “Wind Stress Shaving” Experiments
Abstract Westerly wind bursts (WWBs)—brief but strong westerly wind anomalies in the equatorial Pacific—are believed to play an important role in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics, but quantifying their effects is challenging. Here, we investigate the cumulative effects of WWBs on ENSO characteristics, including the occurrence of extreme El Niño events, via modified coupled model experiments within Community Earth System Model (CESM1) in which we progressively reduce the impacts of wind stress anomalies associated with model-generated WWBs. In these “wind stress shaving” experiments we limit momentum transfer from the atmosphere to the ocean above a preset threshold, thus “shaving off” wind bursts. To reduce the tropical Pacific mean state drift, both westerly and easterly wind bursts are removed, although the changes are dominated by WWB reduction. As we impose progressively stronger thresholds, both ENSO amplitude and the frequency of extreme El Niño decrease, and ENSO becomes less asymmetric. The warming center of El Niño shifts westward, indicating less frequent and weaker eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events. Removing most wind burst–related wind stress anomalies reduces ENSO mean amplitude by 22%. The essential role of WWBs in the development of extreme El Niño events is highlighted by the suppressed eastward migration of the western Pacific warm pool and hence a weaker Bjerknes feedback under wind shaving. Overall, our results reaffirm the importance of WWBs in shaping the characteristics of ENSO and its extreme events and imply that WWB changes with global warming could influence future ENSO.
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
Hestia-SWIFL: hourly anthropogenic fossil fuel CO2 and heat on the 2km WRF grid, version 1.1
The Hestia-SWIFL version 1.1 anthropogenic heat (AH) and fossil fuel CO2 (FFCO2) emissions data product represent emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuel and cement production within the state of Arizona from 2019 to 2022. This product was developed as part of the Southwest Urban Corridor Integrated Field Laboratory (SW-IFL) project, which aims to provide new knowledge and tools that address extreme heat, air quality, climate change and related urban environmental issues by integrating high-resolution observations, modeling, and civic engagement. The emissions are generated using a bottom-up/engineering approach and are tied to results generated by the Vulcan Project version 4, an effort to quantify space/time-resolved FFCO2 & AH emissions for the entire United States landscape. A large number of data sources are combined to best estimate the emissions at fine scales such as air quality emissions data, traffic flow data, building information, sociodemographic information, and fuel statistics. The AH product provides emissions for two emissions sources (transportation and point source emissions) in units of Watts per hour per square meter (W/m2) per year (annual files) or per hour (hourly files). The FFCO2 product provides emissions from nine individual emission sectors as well as the total, and in units of tons of carbon (tC) per grid cell per year or per hour. The output made available here places the native spatial resolution of the Hestia FFCO2 & AH emissions data product (points, lines, and polygons) into a regularized 2km x 2km grid at hourly and annual temporal resolutions, and stored in netCDF files. The exact spatial extent is defined by the ASU Weather Research Forecast (WRF) simulation grid. All data are processed using R/Python pm high-performance computing system. 2-27-2026 updates: Bugs in airport hourly profile (both AH and FFCO2) and building spatial patterns (FFCO2 only) were fixed. Hourly emissions are reprocessed for all years to reflect those changes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Global land use for 2015-2100 at 0.05° resolution under diverse socioeconomic and climate scenarios
Global future land use (LU) is an important input for Earth system models for projecting Earth system dynamics and is critical for many modeling studies on future global change. Here we generated a new global gridded LU dataset using the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) and a land use spatial downscaling model, named Demeter, under the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios. Compared to existing similar datasets, the presented dataset has a higher spatial resolution (0.05°×0.05°) and spreads under a more comprehensive set of SSP-RCP scenarios (in total 15 scenarios), and considers uncertainties from the forcing climates. We compared our dataset with the Land Use Harmonization version 2 (LUH2) dataset and found our results are in general spatially consistent with LUH2. The presented dataset will be useful for global Earth system modeling studies, especially for the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover change and socioeconomics, as well as the characterizing the uncertainties associated with these impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗