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Theoretical Astrophysics at Fermilab

The Theoretical Astrophysics Group works on a broad range of topics ranging from string theory to data analysis in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The group is motivated by the belief that a deep understanding of fundamental physics is necessary to explain a wide variety of phenomena in the universe. During the three years 2001-2003 of our previous NASA grant, over 120 papers were written; ten of our postdocs went on to faculty positions; and we hosted or organized many workshops and conferences. Kolb and collaborators focused on the early universe, in particular and models and ramifications of the theory of inflation. They also studied models with extra dimensions, new types of dark matter, and the second order effects of super-horizon perturbations. S tebbins, Frieman, Hui, and Dodelson worked on phenomenological cosmology, extracting cosmological constraints from surveys such as the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. They also worked on theoretical topics such as weak lensing, reionization, and dark energy. This work has proved important to a number of experimental groups [including those at Fermilab] planning future observations. In general, the work of the Theoretical Astrophysics Group has served as a catalyst for experimental projects at Fennilab. An example of this is the Joint Dark Energy Mission. Fennilab is now a member of SNAP, and much of the work done here is by people formerly working on the accelerator. We have created an environment where many of these people made transition from physics to astronomy. We also worked on many other topics related to NASA s focus: cosmic rays, dark matter, the Sunyaev-Zel dovich effect, the galaxy distribution in the universe, and the Lyman alpha forest. The group organized and hosted a number of conferences and workshop over the years covered by the grant. Among them were:

Source record↗

Anvil Tool in the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System

Meteorologists from the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) and Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG) have identified anvil forecasting as one of their most challenging tasks when predicting the probability of violations of the lightning Launch Commit Criteria and Space Shuttle Flight Rules. As a result, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) created a graphical overlay tool for the Meteorological Interactive Data Display Systems (MIDDS) to indicate the threat of thunderstorm anvil clouds, using either observed or model forecast winds as input. In order for the Anvil Tool to remain available to the meteorologists, the AMU was tasked to transition the tool to the Advanced Weather interactive Processing System (AWIPS). This report describes the work done by the AMU to develop the Anvil Tool for AWIPS to create a graphical overlay depicting the threat from thunderstorm anvil clouds. The AWIPS Anvil Tool is based on the previously deployed AMU MIDDS Anvil Tool. SMG and 45 WS forecasters have used the MIDDS Anvil Tool during launch and landing operations. SMG's primary weather analysis and display system is now AWIPS and the 45 WS has plans to replace MIDDS with AWIPS. The Anvil Tool creates a graphic that users can overlay on satellite or radar imagery to depict the potential location of thunderstorm anvils one, two, and three hours into the future. The locations are based on an average of the upper-level observed or forecasted winds. The graphic includes 10 and 20 nm standoff circles centered at the location of interest, in addition to one-, two-, and three-hour arcs in the upwind direction. The arcs extend outward across a 30 degree sector width based on a previous AMU study which determined thunderstorm anvils move in a direction plus or minus 15 degrees of the upper-level (300- to 150-mb) wind direction. This report briefly describes the history of the MIDDS Anvil Tool and then explains how the initial development of the AWIPS Anvil Tool was carried out. After testing was performed by SMG, 45 WS, and AMU, a number of needed improvements were identified. A bug report document was created that showed the status of each bug and desired improvement. This report lists the improvements that were made to increase the accuracy and user-friendliness of the tool. Final testing was carried out and documented and then the final version of the software and Users Guide was provided to SMG and the 45 WS. Several possible future improvements to the tool are identified that would increase the flexibility of the tool. This report contains a brief history of the development of the Anvil Tool in MIDDS, and then describes the transition and development of software to AWIPS.

Barrett, Joe, III↗

Investigations of Clouds and Aerosols on Mars, Venus and Titan

This final report was included as part of a new proposal. This new proposal was selected for funding on 9 Nov. 1999. For Titan our interest during the past few years was to explain the observed asymmetry in the albedo. We suggested earlier, from one-dimensional modeling studies, that vertical transport rates were comparable to particle fall speeds. Since heating of the upper atmosphere, which drives dynamical motions, is largely due to the aerosols, a nonlinear interaction between dynamics, radiative heating and particle microphysics is possible. We pursued this interaction in a two-dimensional model. We showed that the observed variations in the albedo between the two hemispheres and over an orbital cycle, could be due to dynamical motions suspending particles so that particle sizes and optical depths vary across the planet. In the Cassini time frame, future studies of this interaction between dynamics, radiation and microphysics may be worthwhile using, the strong modeling base that others, and we have developed. In our recently approved proposal, however, we plan to extend our modeling to hydrocarbon clouds that lie at lower levels. We know very little about such clouds, and numerical models for their properties are non-existent. These clouds may be observed by the Huygen's Probe, and by the Cassini orbiter, so predictions of their properties should help in the analysis of Cassini data. We have also developed a sophisticated model for the lower, condensational, clouds on Venus. In this model we explored the water vapor budget on Venus, and the properties of the clouds such as particle size distribution. During the past few years we have applied our model of the water ice clouds on Mars to new data sets from Pathfinder, and Mars Global Surveyor. We have compared our predictions of cloud properties with those seen by Pathfinder, and found reasonable agreement.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Abundances of isotopes in planetary atmospheres

Carbon and oxygen isotopes show no large anomalies on Venus (no more than 10-15%) or Mars (less than 5%); the high value of N-15/N-14 found on Mars is explained by nonthermal escape of nitrogen. The isotopes of nonradiogenic noble gases in the atmosphere of Mars exhibit abundance patterns similar to those in the primordial component of meteoritic gases and in the earth's atmosphere. This implies that gas fractionation took place in the inner solar nebula prior to planet formation. The relatively high value of Xe-129 on Mars emphasizes its deficiency on earth, implying a difference in accretion histories of volatiles for the two planets. In the outer solar system, normal isotope ratios for nitrogen and carbon on Jupiter, and for carbon on Saturn are found, but precision is low (+ or - 15% at best). Controversy exists about the correct value of D/H, with current estimates ranging from 2.3 plus or minus 1.1 to 5.1 plus or - 0.7 times 10 to the minus 5th. Planetary missions planned for the next few years should add considerably to the quantity and quality of these data.

Owen, T.↗

Investigations of Clouds and Aerosols on Mars, Venus and Titan

For Titan our interest during the past few years was to explain the observed asymmetry in the albedo. We suggested earlier, from one-dimensional modeling studies, that vertical transport rates were comparable to particle fall speeds. Since heating of the upper atmosphere, which drives dynamical motions, is largely due to the aerosols, a non- linear interaction between dynamics, radiative heating and particle microphysics is possible. We pursued this interaction in a two-dimensional model. We showed that the observed variations in the albedo between the two hemispheres and over an orbital cycle, could be due to dynamical motions suspending particles so that particle sizes and optical depths vary across the planet. In the Cassini time frame, future studies of this interaction between dynamics, radiation and microphysics may be worthwhile using the strong modeling base that others, and we have developed. In our recently approved proposal, however, we plan to extend our modeling to hydrocarbon clouds that lie at lower levels. We know very little about such clouds, and numerical models for their properties are non-existent. These clouds may be observed by the Huygen's Probe, and by the Cassini orbiter, so predictions of their properties should help in the analysis of Cassini data. We have also developed a sophisticated model for the lower, condensational, clouds on Venus. In this model we explored the water vapor budget on Venus, and the properties of the clouds such as particle size distribution. Most researchers have investigated the upper clouds on Venus, which are essentially a photochemical aerosol with a long lifetime. The lower clouds, however, are similar to stratus clouds on Earth. These clouds have short lifetimes, and are tightly coupled to the dynamics at the base of the Venus cloud deck. We believe that the holes in these clouds seen at near infrared wavelengths by Galileo are related to some interaction between dynamics and cloud physics. One goal of our recently approved proposed work is to better understand this interaction, and to better understand how these clouds may vary if the climate of Venus were to vary. During the past few years we have applied our model of the water ice clouds on Mars to new data sets from Pathfinder, and Mars Global Surveyor. We have compared our predictions of cloud properties with those seen by Pathfinder, and found reasonable agreement. More recently we have improved our model by including a radiative transfer algorithm and a boundary layer transport scheme . The goal of this work is to understand the thermal inversions seen in Mars Global Surveyor data. We find that the inversions are created by clouds radiatively cooling the atmospheric layers in which the clouds form. We have also initiated laboratory work on the physics of carbon dioxide particle formation. In our recently approved work we propose to use these laboratory data, and to extend our modeling to carbon dioxide clouds in the Martian atmosphere.

Toon, Owen B.↗

Human-rating Automated and Robotic Systems - (How HAL Can Work Safely with Astronauts)

Long duration human space missions, as planned in the Vision for Space Exploration, will not be possible without applying unprecedented levels of automation to support the human endeavors. The automated and robotic systems must carry the load of routine housekeeping for the new generation of explorers, as well as assist their exploration science and engineering work with new precision. Fortunately, the state of automated and robotic systems is sophisticated and sturdy enough to do this work - but the systems themselves have never been human-rated as all other NASA physical systems used in human space flight have. Our intent in this paper is to provide perspective on requirements and architecture for the interfaces and interactions between human beings and the astonishing array of automated systems; and the approach we believe necessary to create human-rated systems and implement them in the space program. We will explain our proposed standard structure for automation and robotic systems, and the process by which we will develop and implement that standard as an addition to NASA s Human Rating requirements. Our work here is based on real experience with both human system and robotic system designs; for surface operations as well as for in-flight monitoring and control; and on the necessities we have discovered for human-systems integration in NASA's Constellation program. We hope this will be an invitation to dialog and to consideration of a new issue facing new generations of explorers and their outfitters.

Baroff, Lynn↗

The System Complexity Metric (SCM) Explains Systems Design and is Correlated with Cost and Failure Rate

The human short term memory span and working capacity is limited to three to five items, especially if they are organized complex “chunks” of information. The impression of complexity occurs when a system is simply difficult to understand, where there is no apparent pattern to predict its behavior. Hierarchical systems design can reduce perceived complexity and increase the amount of information that can be managed. The SCM was developed to measure complexity and help compare proposed overall system architectures before detailed design information is available. The SCM is defined as the sum of the number of major nodes, N, in the system block diagram plus the number of one-way interactions, I, between the nodes. SCM = N + I. SCM’s are easily determined by direct inspection of high-level block diagrams of life support systems. Axiomatic design develops a hierarchy of subsystem requirements and designs together in a top-down, back-and-forth process. A coupling matrix is used to control the relationships between the subsystem functions and design concepts. Axiomatic design can improve system design by decoupling requirements and designs. Axiomatic design was applied to the planning of a closed life support system, similar to that used on the International Space Station. A materially open as opposed to a closed system design was created by removing the interconnections required to close the system. The open system had the same number of designed subsystems as the closed system, but it had many fewer interconnections and its SCM was lower by about half. The costs were estimated and the MTBF (Mean Time Before Failure) tabulated for open and closed space life support systems. The estimated costs were linearly proportional to SCM for the wide variations of SCM in life support, but small differences may not be significant. The flight and preflight MTBF’s both declined exponentially with increasing MTBF, faster than MTBF-2, even though the preflight estimated MTBF’s were about ten times higher than the flight MTBF’s.

System Complexity Metric (SCM)↗

Simulating the Composite Propellant Manufacturing Process

There is a strategic interest in understanding how the propellant manufacturing process contributes to military capabilities outside the United States. The paper will discuss how system dynamics (SD) has been applied to rapidly assess the capabilities and vulnerabilities of a specific composite propellant production complex. These facilities produce a commonly used solid propellant with military applications. The authors will explain how an SD model can be configured to match a specific production facility followed by a series of scenarios designed to analyze operational vulnerabilities. By using the simulation model to rapidly analyze operational risks, the analyst gains a better understanding of production complexities. There are several benefits of developing SD models to simulate chemical production. SD is an effective tool for characterizing complex problems, especially the production process where the cascading effect of outages quickly taxes common understanding. By programming expert knowledge into an SD application, these tools are transformed into a knowledge management resource that facilitates rapid learning without requiring years of experience in production operations. It also permits the analyst to rapidly respond to crisis situations and other time-sensitive missions. Most importantly, the quantitative understanding gained from applying the SD model lends itself to strategic analysis and planning.

Williamson, Suzanne↗

Advanced Techniques for Assessment of Postural and Locomotor Ataxia, Spatial Orientation, and Gaze Stability

In addition to adapting to microgravity, major neurovestibular problems of space flight include postflight difficulties with standing, walking, turning corners, and other activities that require stable upright posture and gaze stability. These difficulties inhibit astronauts' ability to stand or escape from their vehicle during emergencies. The long-ter7n goal of the NSBRI is the development of countermeasures to ameliorate the effects of long duration space flight. These countermeasures must be tested with valid and reliable tools. This project aims to develop quantitative, parametric approaches for assessing gaze stability and spatial orientation during normal gait and when gait is perturbed. Two of this year's most important findings concern head fixation distance and ideal trajectory analysis. During a normal cycle of walking the head moves up and down linearly. A simultaneous angular pitching motion of the head keeps it aligned toward an imaginary point in space at a distance of about one meter in front of a subject and along the line of march. This distance is called the head fixation distance. Head fixation distance provides the fundamental framework necessary for understanding the functional significance of the vestibular reflexes that couple head motion to eye motion. This framework facilitates the intelligent design of counter-measures for the effects of exposure to microgravity upon the vestibular ocular reflexes. Ideal trajectory analysis is a simple candidate countermeasure based upon quantifying body sway during repeated up and down stair stepping. It provides one number that estimates the body sway deviation from an ideal sinusoidal body sway trajectory normalized on the subject's height. This concept has been developed with NSBRI funding in less than one year. These findings are explained in more detail below. Compared to assessments of the vestibuo-ocular reflex, analysis of vestibular effects on locomotor function is relatively less well developed and quantified. We are improving this situation by applying methodologies such as nonlinear orbital stability to quantify responses and by using multivariate statistical approaches to link together the responses across separate tests. In this way we can exploit the information available and increase the ability to discriminate between normal and pathological responses. Measures of stability and orientation are compared to measures such as dynamic visual acuity and with balance function tests. The responses of normal human subjects and of patients having well documented pathophysiologies are being characterized. When these studies are completed, we should have a clearer idea about normal and abnormal patterns of eye, head, and body movements during locomotion and their stability in a wide range of environments. We plan eventually to use this information to validate the efficacy of candidate neurovestibular and neuromuscular rehabilitative techniques. Some representative studies made during this year are summarized.

Wall, Conrad., III↗

Dataset 3: A National Dataset on Actionable Items in Improving Pooled Rideshare, 2025.

Dataset 3: A National Dataset on Actionable Items in Improving Pooled Rideshare.” 2025. Dataset Description: Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Survey - Phase 3 (2025, N = 8,296). This dataset represents the third and final phase of a national survey aimed at understanding user acceptance and preferences related to pooled rideshare (PR) services in the United States. Building on insights from earlier phases, this phase expands both the sample size and the depth of analysis to support policymaking, transportation planning, and service design for sustainable mobility systems. The Phase 3 survey was administered online to a nationally representative sample of 8,296 U.S. adults. The sample includes a wide range of demographics. The survey retained core questions from previous phases while introducing 77 detailed service features (actionable items) to evaluate potential improvements to PR offerings. Each feature was designed to assess whether a specific improvement, such as enhanced safety measures, real-time ride tracking, or user training would increase participants’ willingness to adopt PR services. In addition, behavioral predictors, current rideshare habits, environmental attitudes, and perceived barriers (e.g., safety, privacy, and comfort) were captured. - Phase_3_Final - The dataset contains rows corresponding to individual respondents and columns representing survey items, demographic characteristics, and response values. The data is available in both .CSV and .SAV formats. - Phase_3_Final_MapFile - Accompanying this dataset is a data dictionary explaining each variable, value range, and coding schema. An .XLSX format of the full survey instrument is included to support interpretation and reuse of the dataset.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Science in a Team Environment (AKA, How to Play Nicely with Others)

So you want to do NASA funded research in a spaceflight analog? There are several things about participating in an HRP managed analog that may be different from the way you normally do work in your laboratory. The purpose of this presentation is to highlight those differences and explain some of the unique aspects of doing this research. Participation in an HRP funded analog study complement, even if initially selected for funding, is not automatic and involves numerous actions from ISSMP, HRP, and the PI. There are steps that have to be taken and processes to follow before approval and ISSMP-FA integration. After the proposal and acceptance process the Investigator works closely with the Flight Analog team to ensure full integration of their study requirements into a compliment. A complement is comprised of a group of studies requiring a common platform and/or scenario that are able to be integrated on a non-interference basis for implementation. Full integration into the analog platform can be broken down into three phases: integration, preparation, and implementation. These phases occur in order with some overlap in the integration and preparation phase. The ISSMP-FA team integrates, plans and implements analog study complements. Properly defining your research requirements and getting them documented is one of the most critical components to ensure successful integration and implementation of your study, but is also one of the most likely to be neglected by PIs. Requirements that are not documented, or that are documented poorly are unlikely to get done, no matter how much you push. The process to document requirements is two-fold, consisting of an initial individual requirements integration and then a compliment requirements integration. Understanding the requirements in detail and early ensures that the science is not compromised by outside influences. This step is vital to the integration, preparation, and implementation phases. The individual requirements integration is the first step in ensuring that the research fits into an available analog platform or allows for the Flight Analog team to provide information on structural study changes for participation in the analog. At this early point investigators need to understand exactly what their requirements are to produce relevant data and convey their must have needs to the Flight Analog team. The fluid nature of analog platforms allow for minor alterations to the operational structure. Participation in analog research requires flexibility from the investigator to ensure implementation of their research into a flight like analog platform. The compliment integration requires plasticity; investigators are asked to work closely with one another and the Flight Analog team to combine research studies into a single study plan. This study plan's ultimate goal is to facilitate multiple study participation with minimal scientific impact to each individual study. The Flight Analogs team works to find the best compromise for all parties while protecting the flight like atmosphere of a particular analog. Additional restrictions, limitations and constraints may be required by the analog in order to make all of the science work. Many studies need to be combined into each complement and there are a limited number of hours available for data collection. Through data/sample sharing, we can reduce the burden on the test subject, while usually avoiding significant science impacts. Restrictions on food, exercise, medications and sleep cycle are important to consider for your research.

Platts, S. H.↗

Landsat Derived Bathymetry of Lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plan of Northern Alaska

The Pleistocene sand sea on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of northern Alaska is underlain by anancient sand dune field, a geological feature that affects regional lake characteristics. Many of these lakes, whichcover approximately 20 % of the Pleistocene sand sea, are relatively deep (up to 25 m). In addition to the nat-ural importance of ACP sand sea lakes for water storage, energy balance, and ecological habitat, the need forwinter water for industrial development and exploration activities makes lakes in this region a valuable resource.However, ACP sand sea lakes have received little prior study. Here, we collect in situ bathymetric data to test12 model variants for predicting sand sea lake depth based on analysis of Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager(OLI) images. Lake depth gradients were measured at 17 lakes in midsummer 2017 using a Humminbird 798ciHD SI Combo automatic sonar system. The field-measured data points were compared to red–green–blue (RGB)bands of a Landsat-8 OLI image acquired on 8 August 2016 to select and calibrate the most accurate spectral-depth model for each study lake and map bathymetry. Exponential functions using a simple band ratio (withbands selected based on lake turbidity and bed substrate) yielded the most successful model variants. For eachlake, the most accurate model explained 81.8 % of the variation in depth, on average. Modeled lake bathymetrieswere integrated with remotely sensed lake surface area to quantify lake water storage volumes, which rangedfrom 1.056×10−3to 57.416×10−3km3. Due to variations in depth maxima, substrate, and turbidity betweenlakes, a regional model is currently infeasible, rendering necessary the acquisition of additional in situ datawith which to develop a regional model solution. Estimating lake water volumes using remote sensing will fa-cilitate better management of expanding development activities and serve as a baseline by which to evaluatefuture responses to ongoing and rapid climate change in the Arctic. All sonar depth data and modeled lakebathymetry rasters can be freely accessed at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2SN01440 (Simpson and Arp, 2018) andhttps://doi.org/10.18739/A2HT2GC6G (Simpson, 2019), respectively.

Claire E Simpson↗

Sun-Earth Day - Teaching Heliophysics Through Education Technology

Sun-Earth Day (SED) is an Education and Outreach program supported by the U.S, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The intent of the program is to teach students and the general public about Heliophysics (the science of the study of the Sun, how it varies, and how solar dynamics affect the rest of the solar system, especially the Earth). The program was begun ten years ago. Each year since that time a particular day has been designated as "Sun-Earth Day ,,. Usually the day of the spring equinox (March 20 or 21) is Sun-Earth Day, but other days have been used as well. Each year a theme is chosen relating to Heliophysics and events reflecting that theme are planned not only for Sun-Earth Day, but for the entire year. From the very beginning educational technology was emphasized in the events in order to effectively reach wide audiences with the SED message. The main approach has been to have a "webcast" related to each year's theme, often from a location that supports the theme as well. For example, a webcast took place from the Mayan pyramids at Chichen Itza, Mexico to highlight the theme of "Ancient Observatories, Timeless Knowledge". Webcasts were not the only technology employed, however. Many of the themes centered on the dynamic nature of the Sun and the effects that solar storms can have on interplanetary space and in our day-to-day life on Earth. Activities for tracking when solar storms happen and how they affect the Earth were developed and brought together in an educational package called Space Weather Action Centers. This project is explained in more detail in another presentation in this session being given by Norma Teresinha Oliveira Reis. Recent Sun-Earth Days have utilized "social networking" technologies to reach widespread groups on the internet. Podcasts, Vodcasts, Facebook, Twitter, and Second Life are the types of network technologies being employed now. The NASA Distance learning Network is another method for bringing Sun-Earth Day events and training to widespread educators and classrooms in order to magnify the reach of Sun-Earth Day. Examples of the technologies will be shown along with an assessment of their effectiveness.

Thieman, J.↗

Modelling the near-Earth space environment using LDEF data

Near-Earth space is a dynamic environment, that is currently not well understood. In an effort to better characterize the near-Earth space environment, this study compares the results of actual impact crater measurement data and the Space Environment (SPENV) Program developed in-house at POD, to theoretical models established by Kessler (NASA TM-100471, 1987) and Cour-Palais (NASA SP-8013, 1969). With the continuing escalation of debris there will exist a definite hazard to unmanned satellites as well as manned operations. Since the smaller non-trackable debris has the highest impact rate, it is clearly necessary to establish the true debris environment for all particle sizes. Proper comprehension of the near-Earth space environment and its origin will permit improvement in spacecraft design and mission planning, thereby reducing potential disasters and extreme costs. Results of this study directly relate to the survivability of future spacecraft and satellites that are to travel through and/or reside in low Earth orbit (LEO). More specifically, these data are being used to: (1) characterize the effects of the LEO micrometeoroid an debris environment on satellite designs and components; (2) update the current theoretical micrometeoroid and debris models for LEO; (3) help assess the survivability of spacecraft and satellites that must travel through or reside in LEO, and the probability of their collision with already resident debris; and (4) help define and evaluate future debris mitigation and disposal methods. Combined model predictions match relatively well with the LDEF data for impact craters larger than approximately 0.05 cm, diameter; however, for smaller impact craters, the combined predictions diverge and do not reflect the sporadic clouds identified by the Interplanetary Dust Experiment (IDE) aboard LDEF. The divergences cannot currently be explained by the authors or model developers. The mean flux of small craters (approximately 0.05 cm diameter) is overpredicted by Kessler and underpredicted by Cour-Palais. This divergence may be a result of beta-meteoroid fluxes, elliptical orbits or a combination of the two. The results of this study illustrate the definite need for more intensive study of the near-Earth space environment, particularly the small particle regime, as it is the most degrading to spacecraft in LEO.

Atkinson, Dale R.↗

NASA aerospace pyrotechnically actuated systems: Program plan

The NASA Aerospace Pyrotechnically Actuated Systems (PAS) Program, a focused technology program, is being initiated to enhance the reliability, safety, and performance of pyrotechnically actuated systems. In broad terms, this Program Plan presents the approach that helps to resolve concerns raised by the NASA/DOD/DOE Aerospace Pyrotechnic Steering Committee. This Plan reflects key efforts needed in PAS technology. The resources committed to implement the Program will be identified in the Program Implementation Plan (PIP). A top level schedule is included along with major Program milestones and products. Responsibilities are defined in the PIP. The Plan identifies the goals and detailed objectives which define how those goals are to be accomplished. The Program will improve NASA's capabilities to design, develop, manufacture, and test pyrotechnically actuated systems for NASA's programs. Program benefits include the following: advanced pyrotechnic systems technology developed for NASA programs; hands-on pyrotechnic systems expertise; quick response capability to investigate and resolve pyrotechnic problems; enhanced communications and intercenter support among the technical staff; and government-industry PAS technical interchange. The PAS Program produces useful products that are of a broad-based technology nature rather than activities intended to meet specific technology objectives for individual programs. Serious problems have occurred with pyrotechnic devices although near perfect performance is demanded by users. The lack of a program to address those problems in the past is considered a serious omission. The nature of problems experienced as revealed by a survey are discussed and the origin of the program is explained.

Schulze, Norman R.↗

The Evolution of Friction Stir Welding Theory at Marshall Space Flight Center

From 1995 to the present the friction stir welding (FSW) process has been under study at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). This is an account of the progressive emergence of a set of conceptual tools beginning with the discovery of the shear surface, wiping metal transfer, and the invention of a kinematic model and making possible a treatment of both metallurgical structure formation and process dynamics in friction stir welding from a unified point of view. It is generally observed that the bulk of the deformation of weld metal around the FSW pin takes place in a very narrow, almost discontinuous zone with high deformation rates characteristic of metal cutting. By 1999 it was realized that this zone could be treated as a shear surface like that in simple metal cutting models. At the shear surface the seam is drawn out and compressed and pressure and flow conditions determine whether or not a sound weld is produced. The discovery of the shear surface was followed by the synthesis of a simple 3- flow kinematic model of the FSW process. Relative to the tool the flow components are: (1) an approaching translational flow at weld speed V, (2) a rotating cylindrical plug flow with the angular velocity of the tool , and (3) a relatively slow ring vortex flow (like a smoke ring) encircling the tool and driven by shoulder scrolls and pin threads. The rotating plug flow picks up an element of weld metal, rotates it around with the tool, and deposits it behind the tool ( wiping metal transfer ); it forms plan section loops in tracers cut through by the tool. Radially inward flow from the ring vortex component retains metal longer in the rotating plug and outward flow expels metal earlier; this interaction forms the looping weld seam trace and the tongue and groove bimetallic weld contour. The radial components of the translational and ring vortex flows introduce parent metal intrusions into the small grained nugget material close to the tool shoulder; if this feature is pronounced, nugget collapse may result. Certain weld features, in particular internal banding seen in transverse section as onion rings and associated surface ridges called tool marks , have long implied an oscillation flow component, but have only recently been attributed in the literature to tool eccentricity. Rotating plug shape, typically a hollow cylinder flared at the end where it sticks to the shoulder, varies as pressure distribution on the tool determines where sticking occurs. Simplified power input estimates balanced against heat loss estimates give reasonable temperature estimates, explain why the power requirement changes hardly at all over a wide range of RPM s, and yield isotherms that seem to fall along boundaries of parameter windows of operation.

Nunes, Arthur C.↗

Stellar Occultation Observations to Constrain the Stratosphere of Uranus for Aerocapture

Background on Uranus: Voyager 2 (V2) UV stellar and solar occultations at Uranus detected a warm stratosphere and extremely hot thermosphere [1, 2], far in excess of solar irradiance [3, 4] and internal heating [5, 6]. New theories to explain similar heating at Jupiter [7] and Saturn [8] cannot be tested at Uranus due to a dearth of reliable measurements. In [9, 10], we reprocessed 26 archival Earth-based stellar occultations by Uranus (1977-1996), finding stratospheric temperatures (~200 K) warmer than the original (~100 K), but in stark tension with V2 (~300-500 K). In [10], we built a physics-based, 1-D atmospheric model (see Fig 1) that finds a nearly isothermal stratosphere and a dynamic heat sink in the lower thermosphere. Aerocapture: Aerocapture is spacecraft maneuver that uses a single deep dip to enter orbit. It could decrease cruise time and launch mass for a Uranus mission, but the greatest impediment is uncertain stratospheric densities of Uranus [11]. Aims: 1) Observe and process many high S/N Uranus stellar occultations in the next decade; 2) constrain stratospheric densities for aerocapture; 3) better understand the energy balance; 4) determine stratospheric changes since 1996. Upcoming Occultations: We will present our observing plan for the 2025 April Uranus occultation (K mag 8) and discuss the best-in-a-century 2031 event (K mag 4). We will discuss other events in the early 2030s [12] [13], predicted constraints on density, and simulations of aerocapture for UOP. We will discuss the Shadow Chaser, a small satellite concept for observing occultations from Earth orbit [12]. Conclusions: New stellar occultations can vastly improve profiles of the stratosphere of Uranus; this is critical for understanding energy circulation and constraining densities for using aerocapture on UOP. References: [1] Herbert, F. et al. (1987). JGR. [2] Stevens, M. et al. (1993). Icarus. [3] Marley, M. & McKay, C. (1999). Icarus, [4] Li, C. et al. (2018). JQRST. [5] Pearl, J. et al. (1990). Icarus. [6] Melin, H (2020). Nat Astron. [7] O’Donoghue, J. et al. (2021) Nature. [8] Mueller-Wodarg, I. et al. (2019) GRL. [9] Saunders, W. et al. (2023). PSJ. [10] Saunders, W. et al. (2024). PSJ. [11] Report of the Aerocapture Demonstration Relevance Assessment Team (2023). [12] Saunders, W. et al. (2022). P&SS. [13] French, R. & Souami, D. (2023) PSJ.

William Saunders↗

Protein crystal growth in low gravity

The solubility and growth of the protein canavalin, and the application of the schlieren technique to study fluid flow in protein crystal growth systems were investigated. These studies have resulted in the proposal of a model to describe protein crystal growth and the preliminary plans for a long-term space flight experiment. Canavalin, which may be crystallized from a basic solution by the addition of hydrogen (H+) ions, was shown to have normal solubility characteristics over the range of temperatures (5 to 25 C) and pH (5 to 7.5) studies. The solubility data combined with growth rate data gathered from the seeded growth of canavalin crystals indicated that the growth rate limiting step is a screw dislocation mechanism. A schlieren apparatus was constructed and flow patterns were observed in Rochelle salt (sodium potassium tartrate), lysozyme, and canavalin. The critical parameters were identified as the change in density with concentration (dp/dc) and the change in index of refraction with concentration (dn/dc). Some of these values were measured for the materials listed. The data for lyrozyme showed non-linearities in plots of optical properties and density vs. concentration. In conjunction with with W. A. Tiller, a model based on colloid stability theory was proposed to describe protein crystallization. The model was used to explain observations made by ourselves and others. The results of this research has lead to the development for a preliminary design for a long-term, low-g experiment. The proposed apparatus is univeral and capable of operation under microprocessor control.

Feigelson, Robert S.↗