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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probability of Obstacle Collision for UAVs in Presence of Wind

For incorporation of unmanned aerial vehicles into the National Airspace, ensuring safety of the airspace including the vehicles, people, and property on the ground is of utmost importance. One of the safety-critical factors for unmanned aviation flights is the risk of deviating from a planned trajectory resulting in a variety of hazards, including potential loss of separation between vehicle and obstacles or unexpected battery energy consumption. Off-nominal conditions introduced by component failures, degraded controllability and environmental disturbances such as wind gusts can lead to unacceptable unexpected deviations from the flight trajectory. It is essential to accurately model such effects on the flight trajectory while computing safety thresholds such as minimum separation from surrounding obstacles, available battery resource to complete the mission or determining delay in the expected time of arrival of flights. In this paper, a tool is presented based on Gaussian Process Regression for wind representation over a pre-defined trajectory for fast, yet approximated, in-time evaluation of possible trajectory deviations caused by wind gusts. The deviation in the planned trajectory caused by wind is further simulated utilizing a 6 degrees-of-freedom (DOF) UAV trajectory simulator comprising of a rotorcraft lumped-mass model with LQRI controller. Both steady-state wind and wind gust effects are investigated. The probability of collision with obstacle is computed and demonstrated on real flight data from experimental flights of an octocopter at NASA Langley Research Center in the presence of simulated obstacles and wind conditions. Effect of varying wind conditions and varying UAV airspeed is further demonstrated on experimental flights in the presence of wind measured by ground based weather service stations. The proposed approach would eventually benefit timely mitigation of current and future safety-critical events in autonomous systems by enabling risk-informed decision making.

Portia Banerjee↗
NASA NTRS2016

EVEREST: Pixel Level Decorrelation of K2 Light Curves

We present EPIC Variability Extraction and Removal for Exoplanet Science Targets (EVEREST), an open-source pipeline for removing instrumental noise from K2 light curves. EVEREST employs a variant of pixel level decorrelation to remove systematics introduced by the spacecraft’s pointing error and a Gaussian process to capture astrophysical variability. We apply EVEREST to all K2 targets in campaigns 0–7, yielding light curves with precision comparable to that of the original Kepler mission for stars brighter than K(sub p) ≈ 13, and within a factor of two of the Kepler precision for fainter targets. We perform cross-validation and transit injection and recovery tests to validate the pipeline and compare our light curves to the other de-trended light curves available for download at the MAST High Level Science Products archive. We find that EVEREST achieves the highest average precision of any of these pipelines for unsaturated K2 stars. The improved precision of these light curves will aid in exoplanet detection and characterization, investigations of stellar variability, asteroseismology, and other photometric studies. The EVEREST pipeline can also easily be applied to future surveys, such as the TESS mission, to correct for instrumental systematics and enable the detection of low signal-to-noise transiting exoplanets. The EVEREST light curves and the source code used to generate them are freely available online.

Catalogs↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

PM 2.5 Concentrations over Major Metropolitan Regions Inferred from Airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar Measurements Using Machine Learning Regression

We use measurements of near-surface aerosol backscatter, extinction, and depolarization acquired by four NASA Langley Research Center airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidars (HSRLs) to develop a machine learning regression methodology to infer PM2.5 concentrations at the surface and aloft. These airborne HSRL measurements were acquired over major metropolitan regions in the United States and Asia during more than 170 flights since 2010. Hourly surface PM2.5 measurements from the EPA air quality system and similar networks in other countries acquired within 10 km and 15 minutes of these near-surface HSRL measurements are used to train models that compute PM2.5 concentrations from the HSRL measurements. We examine several regression methods and find that exponential Gaussian Process algorithms consistently give the best performance in terms of the lowest root-mean-square (RMS) errors and the highest correlations. Model performance varies significantly depending on various combinations of HSRL aerosol measurements (e.g., aerosol backscatter, extinction, depolarization, backscatter color ratios, lidar ratios, aerosol optical thickness) and retrievals (e.g., mixed layer height, aerosol type) used in the regressions. Models that use near-surface measurements of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties such as depolarization, backscatter color ratio, and lidar ratio typically give the best performance with RMS errors around 4 mg/m3 and correlation coefficients above 0.9. HSRL measurements were often acquired when the aircraft flew systematic “raster-scan” patterns for several hours over these cities. These flight patterns enabled measurements of the spatial, temporal, and vertical variabilities in the distributions of aerosol backscatter and aerosol intensive properties and allowed us to derive the corresponding variabilities in PM2.5 concentrations. We present examples of such variabilities over urban areas in the United States as well as Asia. We describe also how the distribution of surface PM2.5 varies with aerosol type and use these retrievals to examine model simulations of surface PM2.5 in these metropolitan regions. We also discuss how this methodology may be applied to measurements from satellite lidars such as CALIOP on CALIPSO and ATLID on EarthCARE.

lidar↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating Thermochemical Equilibrium Calculations for Nuclear Reactor Applications

Thermochemical properties play a key role in modeling and simulation of several key phenomena in nuclear reactors. There has been an increasing interest in incorporating CALPHAD-based formulations in multiphysics simulations including for Molten Salt Reactors where knowledge of phase evolution of the salt and the chemical potentials of various elements are of utmost importance in source term analyses and redox control. However, the size of such simulations is often limited by the high computational cost of full thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. This work discusses the current efforts aimed at accelerating thermochemical equilibrium calculations for multiphysics simulations performed using the open-source finite element / finite volume code Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [1]. While several methods have been proposed for accelerating phase equilibrium calculations [2], most focus on relatively small systems and often rely on a- priori knowledge of the state-space of the system. Nuclear materials, however, are often multi-component systems owing to the evolution of composition under irradiation and an approach based on a-priori mapping of phase diagram is often not enough. This work is aimed at demonstrating an on-the-fly surrogate modeling framework that uses active learning to reduce the number of full equilibrium calculations that must be performed. By combining with efficient coupling approaches, the surrogate framework helps in reducing the computational cost of thermodynamic equilibrium informed multiphysics simulations of nuclear materials. The performance is benchmarked against full coupling with the thermochemistry library Thermochimica [3]. This work uses a machine learning based approach for constructing surrogate models to predict the stable phases in a multicomponent system. The surrogates were constructed using neural networks and Gaussian process classification. In this work, we compare the relative performance of the two methods. We also demonstrate the use of caching previous calculations by interpolating the values from nearest neighbors. References [1] Lindsay, A.D., et al. "2.0 – MOOSE: Enabling massively parallel multiphysics simulation", SoftwareX, 20 (2022): 101202. [2] Roos, W.A. and Zietsman J.H. "Accelerating complex chemical equilibrium calculations – A Review", Calphad, 77 (2022): 102380. [3] Piro, M.H.A., et al. "The thermochemistry library Thermochimica", Computational Materials Science, 67 (2013): 266-272.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collectedunder structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore,their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distanceto the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensembleof trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fittingobserved in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inversephysical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of thesource strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations ofunderlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Based Machine Learning Methods for U-235 Forensics Signatures

Signatures of low-intensity U-235 sources have been recently studied by utilizing a variety of machine learning (ML) classifiers using features derived from gamma spectral measurements collected under structured campaigns. Several ML classifiers, such as ensemble of tress and classification trees, revealed misleadingly-optimistic training error due to over-fitting, and furthermore, their performance is not directly relatable to the physical properties due to their data-driven, opaque designs. We present a regression-based ML method that first estimates the inverse distance to the source and then utilizes a threshold to infer its presence, by representing the background as a source located at an infinite distance. For the inverse distance estimation, we study the ensemble of trees and Gaussian process regression methods, and a hyper parameter auto-tuning and selection method that employs five regression estimators. These methods avoid the over-fitting observed in several ML classifiers, while providing the classification error nearly comparable to them based on independent test data. Their error is directly related to estimates of the inverse physical distance to source, and the precision of error determines the seperability property that determines the false alarm and missed detection rates. The property of monotonic decrease of the source strength with increasing detector distance combined with Poisson distribution of measurements is utilized to analytically validate these methods by deriving the generalization equations of underlying regression methods.

Rao, Nageswara↗
DOE OSTI2024

Visualization and Quantification of Wind Induced Variability in Hydrogen Clouds Following Releases of Liquid Hydrogen: Preprint

Well characterized experimental data for consequence model validation is important in progressing the use of liquid hydrogen as an energy carrier. In 2019, the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) undertook a series of liquid hydrogen dispersion and combustion experiments as a part of the Pre-normative Research into the Safe Use of Liquid Hydrogen (PRESLHY) project. In partnership between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and HSE, time and spatially varying hydrogen concentration measurements were made in 25 dispersion experiments and 23 congested ignition experiments associated with PRESLHY WP3 and WP5, respectively. These measurements were undertaken using the hydrogen wide area monitoring system developed by NREL. During the 23 congested ignition experiments, high variability was observed in the measured explosion severity during experiments with similar initial conditions. This led to the conclusion that wind, including localized gusts, had a large influence on the dispersion of the hydrogen, and therefore the quantity of hydrogen that was present in the congested region of the explosions. Using the hydrogen concentration measurements taken immediately prior to ignition, the hydrogen clouds were visualized in an attempt to rationalize the variability in overpressure between the tests. Gaussian process regression was applied to quantify the variability of the measured hydrogen concentrations. This analysis could also be used to guide modifications in experimental designs for future research on hydrogen combustion behavior.

HSR&D↗
DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty based Online Ensemble on Non-Stationary Data for Fusion Science

Machine Learning (ML) is poised to play a pivotal role in the development and operation of next-generation fusion devices. Fusion data shows non-stationary behavior due to drifts in the data. The drifts can arise from both experimental evolution and machine wear-and-tear. ML models assume stationary distribution and fail to maintain performance when encountered with non-stationary data streams.Online learning can be used to continuously adapt the models with new data as it is acquired. However, traditional online learning can suffer from short-term performance degradation, as ground truth are not available before making the prediction. To address this challenge, we propose uncertainty aware ensemble approach for online learning. We use Deep Gaussian Process Approximation (DGPA) technique for calibrated uncertainty estimation and use the uncertainty values to guide a meta-algorithm that produces predictions based on ensemble of learners. Moreover, DGPA also provides uncertainty estimation along with the predictions for decision makers. This paper demonstrates that the proposed method outperforms traditional online learning approach, and a naive ensemble without uncertainty guidance by about 7% and 6%, respectively, on B-coil deflection prediction at DIII-D Fusion Facility.

Rajput, Kishansingh [Thomas Jefferson National Acc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Optimization for Reactor Design Optimization

This study present a test case in which the Bayesian Optimization method is applied to a simulation-based reactor core design optimization problem. The test case aims to showcase the potential of an automated design optimization algorithm for reactor designs by streamlining the reactor core design workflow, given the high computational cost of simulations. The contributions of this work are threefold. First, the existing HTGR model is converted into a simulation-based design optimization test case by developing a pipeline that enables modification of key design parameters and evaluates design performance based on simulation outputs. Second, Bayesian Optimization is implemented and adapted to demonstrate the feasibility of automatic design optimization for nuclear reactor core. Proposed approach leverages Gaussian Process models to characterize the relationship between design variables and performance metrics, while incorporating novel acquisition functions that balance exploration of the design space with exploitation of promising configurations. This implementation lays the foundation for the future developments of reactor design optimization algorithms.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tomography of Atomic Nuclei

We carry out continuum quantum Monte Carlo calculations of the quantum-mechanical Wigner distribution functions of selected nuclei, up to $^{16}$O. These distributions provide a form of quantum tomography of the spatial and momentum structure of the system. They also help identify the location of high-momentum regions in atomic nuclei and provide insight into the onset of alpha clustering. Besides their intrinsic interest, these distributions will be useful for neutrino event generators, as they correlate the positions and momenta of nucleons in the initial target state. To facilitate their application, we address the need to store them compactly by developing an accurate Gaussian Process emulator that automatically preserves their normalization.

Rocco, Noemi [Valencia U., IFIC; Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimators and Fusers for Fiber Delay Estimation Using Environmental Measurements

The properties of deployed network fiber are affected by environmental factors due to their exposure to the elements. Particularly for quantum networks, the resultant delay variations may have significant impacts due to the extreme sensitivity of synchronization, coincidence counting, and other critical operations. In this paper, the delays of 15 km aerial-inground fiber connections are measured, and effects due to temperature, humidity and wind speed are analyzed over multiple periods spanning four seasons of a year. Machine learning methods are first utilized to reveal surprisingly pronounced effects of humidity on the delay, in addition to the expected temperature and its seasonal variations. Estimator and fusion methods are developed to estimate the delay using temperature, humidity and wind speed measurements, by utilizing smooth Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and nonsmooth Ensemble of Trees (EOT) methods. Measurements from winter and summer periods are temporally fused using twelve different methods, and eight methods provide estimates for the delay throughout the year with median test errors under 1.28%. The results reveal distinct temperature-humidity trends across the seasons, and the ability of estimator and temporal fusion methods to exploit them for estimating the delay. These results constitute a case study of machine learning analytical results, wherein generalization equations explain the performance of various estimator and fuser methods.

Rao, Nageswara [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000234085941)↗
NASA NTRS1978

Simplified model of statistically stationary spacecraft rotation and associated induced gravity environments

A stochastic model of spacecraft motion was developed based on the assumption that the net torque vector due to crew activity and rocket thruster firings is a statistically stationary Gaussian vector process. The process had zero ensemble mean value, and the components of the torque vector were mutually stochastically independent. The linearized rigid-body equations of motion were used to derive the autospectral density functions of the components of the spacecraft rotation vector. The cross-spectral density functions of the components of the rotation vector vanish for all frequencies so that the components of rotation were mutually stochastically independent. The autospectral and cross-spectral density functions of the induced gravity environment imparted to scientific apparatus rigidly attached to the spacecraft were calculated from the rotation rate spectral density functions via linearized inertial frame to body-fixed principal axis frame transformation formulae. The induced gravity process was a Gaussian one with zero mean value. Transformation formulae were used to rotate the principal axis body-fixed frame to which the rotation rate and induced gravity vector were referred to a body-fixed frame in which the components of the induced gravity vector were stochastically independent. Rice's theory of exceedances was used to calculate expected exceedance rates of the components of the rotation and induced gravity vector processes.

Fichtl, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

Crassidis, John L.↗
NASA NTRS1976

A correlation polarimeter for noise-like signals

Optimum estimation (tracking) of the polarization plane of a linearly polarized electromagnetic wave is determined when the signal is a narrow-band Gaussian random process with a polarization plane angle which is also a Gaussian random process. This model is compared to previous work and is applicable to space communication. The estimator performs a correlation operation similar to an amplitude-comparison monopulse angle tracker, giving the name correlation polarimeter. Under large signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), the estimator is causal. Performance of the causal correlation polarimeter is evaluated for arbitrary SNR. Optimum precorrelation filtering is determined. With low SNR, the performance of this system is far better than that of previously developed systems. Practical implementation is discussed. A scheme is given to reduce the effect of linearly polarized noise.

Ohlson, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Analysis of dynamic system response to product random processes

The response of dynamic systems to the product of two independent Gaussian random processes is developed by use of the Fokker-Planck and associated moment equations. The development is applied to the amplitude modulated process which is used to model atmospheric turbulence in aeronautical applications. The exact solution for the system response is compared with the solution obtained by the quasi-steady approximation which omits the dynamic properties of the random amplitude modulation. The quasi-steady approximation is valid as a limiting case of the exact solution for the dynamic response of linear systems to amplitude modulated processes. In the nonlimiting case the quasi-steady approximation can be invalid for dynamic systems with low damping.

Sidwell, K.↗