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This dataset contains grid files for subsurface maps created in GES interpretation software and exported as Zmap formated grid files. Depth values in SSTVD (subsea true vertical depth). The methods used for analysis and a detailed discussion of the results are presented in a paper by McCleery et al., (2018).
A carbonate-silicate geochemical cycle model is developed and used to explore dynamic and climatic consequences of constraints on shallow-water carbonate burial and possible carbon loss to the mantle associated with sea-floor subduction. The model partitions carbonate deposition between shallow-water and deep-water environments and includes carbon fluxes between the mantle and lithosphere. When total lithospheric carbonate mass is constant, there are two stable steady states, one in which the carbonate burial flux is mostly continental and another in which it is mostly pelagic. The continental steady state is characterized by a low metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere and predominantly shallow-water carbonate burial. The pelagic steady state is characterized by a high metamorphic CO2 flux and predominantly deep-water carbonate burial. For reasonable parameter values, when total lithospheric carbonate mass is allowed to vary, the model oscillates between predominantly continental and predominantly pelagic modes. Model results suggest that carbonate deposition patterns established during the Cenozoic may be pushing the Earth system from the continental to the pelagic mode on a time scale of 10(8) yr, with a possible consequent order-of-magnitude increase in the metamorphic CO2 flux to the atmosphere.
The northeastern United States is vulnerable to many impacts from snowfall-producing winter cyclones that are amplified by the proximity of population centers to storm tracks. Historically, climatic snowfall assessments have centered around seasonal means even though local impacts typically occur at scales of hours to days. To detect snowstorms at the event level, an objective algorithm is defined based on the Regional Snowfall Index. The metric collocates storm snowfall with population to produce statistics of snowstorms with societal impacts. When applied to the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, broad declines in snowstorm frequency are projected by the later 21 st century. These decreases are primarily due to a warmer atmosphere less conducive to snowfall as the predominant precipitation type. However, we note reductions are less significant for major events, since more hostile thermodynamic environments are partially offset by increased precipitation associated with cyclones that dynamically drive high-impact snowstorms.
New methods for predicting the amplitude and variability of ground shaking from earthquakes (and explosions) are needed for seismic hazard analysis for buildings, nuclear power plants, and critical infrastructure at the NNSS. We are comparing existing 1-D and new 3-D geophysical methods for estimating the shear-wave velocity structure in the upper 30 meters of the ground surface (Vs30), which plays a major role in ground motion amplification and seismic response of buildings. We evaluate the performance of these methodologies at the U1a Complex at the NNSS and develop simple 1-D and high-resolution 3-D Vs30 models. We then emplace these high-resolution models into a background seismic velocity model. We will collaborate with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to conduct numerical modeling of the ground shaking at the NNSS using their high-performance computing technology and state-of-the-art ground motion simulation methodology. The primary work that was completed in FY 2019 was to acquire the seismic systems and familiarize staff at the NNSS with their use. We also worked on developing a collection plan with the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS, but due to time constraints and other ongoing projects at the DAF, we had to use U1a as a backup. We were able to coordinate the seismic survey, and we will complete the collection of seismic data in FY 2020. Additionally, during FY 2019, we completed the geologic framework model (GFM) for the U1a Complex and modeled the Yucca fault. LLNL worked with us through FY 2019 to prepare the data files for their modeling software and tested the software for reliability. In FY 2020 we will develop the end-to-end capability so that any facility could easily be modeled and the expected shaking from a local earthquake understood. The work in FY 2020 will include building fault models from the GFM and finalizing the velocity model analysis. The final simulations will be run for multiple rupture models, and final assessments will demonstrate the seismic hazard at the U1a Complex.
The goal of this project by the Energy & Environmental Research Center was to systematically assess the petroleum systems of the Williston and Powder River Basins (PRB) for prospective residual oil zones (ROZs) through a geologic process modeling approach. This approach models the evolution of a sedimentary basin to predict if, when, and where reservoirs were charged with hydrocarbons. Suspected ROZs identified by this approach were evaluated for their potential oil recovery using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and for associated CO 2 storage. ROZs are naturally waterflooded portions of oil reservoirs with oil saturations between 25% and 40% but are at irreducible oil saturation levels with respect to water, rendering the reservoirs uneconomic using conventional recovery methods. However, using CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR), substantial amounts of oil can be recovered from ROZs while simultaneously storing CO 2 . ROZs were originally identified and defined in the Permian Basin of West Texas but have since been identified or speculated in several geologic basins, including the Williston Basin and PRB.
Plastic deformation of olivine at relatively low temperatures (i.e., low-temperature plasticity) likely controls the strength of the lithospheric mantle in a variety of geodynamic contexts. Unfortunately, laboratory estimates of the strength of olivine deforming by low-temperature plasticity vary considerably from study to study, limiting confidence in extrapolation to geological conditions. Here we present the results of deformation experiments on olivine single crystals and aggregates conducted in a deformation-DIA at confining pressures of 5 to 9 GPa and temperatures of 298 to 1473 K. These results demonstrate that, under conditions in which low-temperature plasticity is the dominant deformation mechanism, fine-grained samples are stronger at yield than coarse-grained samples, and the yield stress decreases with increasing temperature. All samples exhibited significant strain hardening until an approximately constant flow stress was reached. The magnitude of the increase in stress from the yield stress to the flow stress was independent of grain size and temperature. Cyclical loading experiments revealed a Bauschinger effect, wherein the initial yield strength is higher than the yield strength during subsequent cycles. Both strain hardening and the Bauschinger effect are interpreted to result from the development of back stresses associated with long-range dislocation interactions. We calibrated a constitutive model based on these observations, and extrapolation of the model to geological conditions predicts that the strength of the lithosphere at yield is low compared to previous experimental predictions but increases significantly with increasing strain. Our results resolve apparent discrepancies in recent observational estimates of the strength of the oceanic lithosphere.
Because hotspots represent an important manifestation of heat loss on Venus, their geological evolution is of fundamental importance for any attempt to understand Venusian tectonics. Eistla Regio is an approximately 7500-km-long, moderately elevated region inferred to overlie one or more large mantle upwellings or hotspots. It also contains many shield volcanoes and coronae believed due to the rise of thermal plumes in the mantle. Central Eistla Regio includes two large volcanoes, Sappho and Anala, and several coronae in close proximity. Detailed mapping in this region results in two conclusions of tectonic significance: (1) Sappho and Anala occur near the intersection of two major extensional deformation zones, and (2) the coronae are older than the large volcanoes. Several of the coronae occur as a chain along Guor Linea, one of the major extensional deformation zones. Stratigraphic relationships indicate that the coronae began forming very soon after the emplacement of the widespread regional plains materials. Thus Central Eistla Regio was the site of a swarm of plumes that first formed coronae and then later formed shield volcanoes. The expected result of such a swarm would be thermal thinning of the elastic lithosphere with time. However, model results, geological observations, and gravity data suggest that the change from coronae to shield volcanoes was accompanied by a thickening of the lithosphere with time. This thickening is interpreted to be the result of global cooling of the lithosphere following the most recent episode of near-global resurfacing. The global cooling must have occurred faster than local heating of the lithosphere due to the impingement of thermal plumes.
Simulating subsurface contaminant transport at the kilometer-scale often entails modeling reactive flow and transport within and through complex geologic structures. These structures are typically meshed by hand and as a result geologic structure is usually represented by one or a few deterministically generated geological models for uncertainty studies of flow and transport in the subsurface. Uncertainty in geologic structure can have a significant impact on contaminant transport. In this study, the impact of geologic structure on contaminant tracer transport in a shale formation is investigated for a simplified generic deep geologic repository for permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel. An open-source modeling framework is used to perform a sensitivity analysis study on transport of two tracers from a generic spent nuclear fuel repository with uncertain location of the interfaces between the stratum of the geologic structure. The automated workflow uses sampled realizations of the geological structural model in addition to uncertain flow parameters in a nested sensitivity analysis. Concentration of the tracers at observation points within, in line with, and downstream of the repository are used as the quantities of interest for determining model sensitivity to input parameters and geological realization. Finally, the results of the study indicate that the location of strata interfaces in the geological structure has a first-order impact on tracer transport in the example shale formation, and that this impact may be greater than that of the uncertain flow parameters.
The city of Bucharest, Romania, hosts the second-largest district energy system (DES) in the world. Geothermal resources can be considered as a supplementary heat source to support the demand for domestic hot water and space heating in the winter and shoulder seasons. The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) has conducted a study that considers geothermal energy to serve a fraction of the existing district heating network operated by Electrocentrale Bucure?ti (ELCEN), the utility operating the DES. Lower Cretaceous and Jurassic limestones make up the main geothermal aquifer underlying Bucharest, which hosts temperatures suitable for district heating (up to 90 degrees C to the north of the city). Anomalous geothermal gradients have been observed to the north of the city, where a pumped well has produced 82 degrees C brine at the wellhead to feed the Therme Bucharest Spa. An anomalous gradient has also been reported to the southeast of the city (35 degrees C/km). NLR modeled the building heating loads of a small portion of the DES (a block of nine prototypical buildings) in its Urban Renewable Building and Neighborhood Optimization (URBANopt ) platform. To simulate meeting a baseload benchmark of 20 MWth deliverable to a small portion of the DES, the NLR team used GEOPHIRES to model production scenarios for (1) hydrothermal systems coupled with heat pumps targeting the main geothermal aquifer in the north, (2) enhanced geothermal systems targeting hot dry rock in the southeast, and (3) huff-and-puff systems targeting a gradient of 25 degrees C/km. Finally, NLR conducted a high-level sensitivity study around the techno-economics of these systems. The outcomes of this work indicate that hot dry rock geothermal resources that can deliver at least 90 degrees C hot water to the Geothermal District Energy System (GeoDES) offer a possible solution for supplemental geothermal heat delivered to the existing DES.
We examined the von Mises and Mohr-Coulomb strength models with and without damage effects and developed a model for dilatancy. The models and results are given in O'Keefe et al. We found that by incorporating damage into the models that we could in a single integrated impact calculation, starting with the bolide in the atmosphere produce final crater profiles having the major features found in the field measurements. These features included a central uplift, an inner ring, circular terracing and faulting. This was accomplished with undamaged surface strengths of approximately 0.1 GPa and at depth strengths of approximately 1.0 GPa. We modeled the damage in geologic materials using a phenomenological approach, which coupled the Johnson-Cook damage model with the CTH code geologic strength model. The objective here was not to determine the distribution of fragment sizes, but rather to determine the effect of brecciated and comminuted material on the crater evolution, fault production, ejecta distribution, and final crater morphology.
Naturally Fractured Reservoirs (NFR’s) have received little attention as potential CO 2 storage sites. Two main facts deter from storage projects in fractured reservoirs: (1) CO 2 tends to be nonwetting in target formations and capillary forces will keep CO 2 in the fractures, which typically have low pore volume; and (2) the high conductivity of the fractures may lead to increased spatial spreading of the CO 2 plume. Numerical simulations are a powerful tool to understand the physics behind brine-CO 2 flow in NFR’s. Dual-porosity models are typically used to simulate multiphase flow in fractured formations. However, existing dual-porosity models are based on crude approximations of the matrix-fracture fluid transfer processes and often fail to capture the dynamics of fluid exchange accurately. Therefore, more accurate transfer functions are needed in order to evaluate the CO 2 transfer to the matrix. This work presents an assessment of CO 2 storage potential in NFR’s using dual-porosity models. We investigate the impact of a system of fractures on storage in a saline aquifer, by analyzing the time scales of brine drainage by CO 2 in the matrix blocks and the maximum CO 2 that can be stored in the rock matrix. A new model to estimate drainage time scales is developed and used in a transfer function for dual-porosity simulations. Furthermore, we then analyze how injection rates should be limited in order to avoid early spill of CO 2 (lost control of the plume) on a conceptual anticline model. Numerical simulations on the anticline show that naturally fractured reservoirs may be used to store CO 2 .
Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.
Geologic framework models (GFMs) are critical to the construction of reliable simulation models of groundwater flow and contaminant transport. To support GFM development, direct information (e.g., core samples, fluid samples, hydraulic testing) tends to be sparse and separated by large distances relative to the spatial scales of aquifer heterogeneity. There are additional challenges associated with highly contaminated legacy waste sites, where drilling is particularly costly, and invasive sampling requires specialized handling and disposal of hazardous materials. At these sites in particular, non-invasive geophysical imaging can play an important role in filling spatial gaps between boreholes and reducing characterization costs by optimizing and minimizing the number of necessary boreholes. Here this paper presents a case study demonstrating the use of large-scale (> 30 km 2 ) electrical mapping to identify hydrostratigraphy and potential paleochannels at the Hanford Site, located in Washington State, USA. In two field campaigns, over 36 line-kilometers of electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) data were collected along 14 transects. ERT surveys were sited and performed to image critical aspects (e.g., paleochannels, stratigraphic contacts) of the subsurface, demonstrating a general workflow for integrating ERT with GFM development. Inconsistencies between the GFM and ERT were catalogued to provide a basis for future site characterization using complementary geophysical methods and (or) direct sampling.
With recent developments in computational techniques, Data-driven Machine Learning Models (DMLs) have shown great potential in simulating streamflow and capturing the rainfall-runoff relationship in given watersheds, which are traditionally fulfilled by Process-based Hydrologic Models (PHMs). There are debates on whether the DMLs can outperform and possibly replace the classical PHMs for streamflow simulation and river forecasting, but no clear conclusions have been made. This study aims to investigate whether the newer DMLs have any potential in further improving the simulation accuracy of classical PHMs, and vice versa. To do this, we compared a few popular PHMs and DMLs over four watersheds across the Continental US (CONUS) that are associated with different input, climate, and regional conditions. A total of five hydrologic models were chosen, including (1) two classical lumped models, i.e., the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) and Xinanjiang (XAJ); (2) one modern distributed model, termed Coupled Routing and Excess Storage (CREST); (3) and two DMLs including an Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and a deep learning model, termed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). Our results demonstrated that the DMLs still significantly biased when using the baseline input scenario with the PHMs. However, the DMLs fed with delayed input scenarios had great potential and can reach high simulation accuracy. The DMLs, especially the ANN, outperformed other employed models under the rainfall-runoff relationship in which rainfall dominantly drives. Furthermore, the DMLs also showed better performance in the high-flow regime, while the PHMs had a better performance for the low-flow regime, implying both PHMs and DMLs have their own merits and are worthy of joint development. In general, our study indicated a great potential of using DMLs to simulate streamflow, but further studies are still needed to verify the transferability and scalability of DMLs in large-scale experiments, such as the Distributed Model Intercomparison Projects 1&2 conducted by National Weather Services but to compare modern DMLs and PHMs.
The recent National Gas Hydrate Program Expedition 02 (NGHP-02) identified the existence of gas hydrate-bearing sand reservoirs at a number of sites in the offshore of India including Site NGHP-02-16 in Area-B of the Krishna-Godavari Basin. The architecture of that gas hydrate accumulation is characterized by thin, gas hydrate-bearing, high quality sand layers interbedded with mud layers within a turbidite sedimentary interval. The lowest gas hydrate-bearing layer contacting a thinly-interbedded saline aquifer designates the base of the gas hydrate stability zone (BGHSZ). The proximity of the BGHSZ and the average temperature around 20 °C make the reservoir a favorable target for hydrate destabilization by means of the depressurization method. The results of the reservoir simulations indicate high gas production potential from this marine gas hydrate deposit with manageable concomitant water production using a well completion design that hydraulically isolates layers with water-saturated sands. Using a detailed geological input model, the predicted cumulative gas rates reach ~3.1 × 10 4 m 3 /day (~1.1 MMscf/day) after 90 days of continuous depressurization and demonstrate sustained production rates ~3.0 × 10 4 m 3 /day (~1.0 MMscf/day) after 5 years of production. The interbedded nature of this gas hydrate occurrence promotes the development of horizontal dissociation interfaces between gas hydrate-bearing sand and mud layers. As a result, non-uniform gas production along the horizontal interfaces becomes a primary determinant of reservoir performance. Simulation cases have been executed to determine the impact of the uncertainty in in situ reservoir permeability and the manner in which intrinsic permeability dynamically changes during dissociation in response to the imposed effective stress increase. Here, the cases based on low initial effective permeability and high sensitivity of compaction to stress result in the least favorable production predictions.
Here, we present neutron diffraction, electronic structure calculations, and optical vibrational spectroscopic characterization of hydronium uranyl phosphate (HUP), the synthetic analog of chernikovite ((H 3 O)(UO 2 )(PO 4 )·3H 2 O) to gain insight into structural features of the hydronium cation in the solid state. HUP crystallizes in P2 1 /c instead of previously reported P4/ncc 1 at room temperature and Pccn below 302 K. Lower symmetry was required due to hydronium and interstitial water positions within the structure. Crystallographic positions of hydronium cations determined from powder neutron diffraction data are bolstered by Raman and attenuated total reflectance infrared spectroscopic measurements and are further informed by density functional theory with phonon eigenvector analysis for spectral assignments. Finally, HUP and its arsenate analog (trogerite, (H 3 O)(UO 2 )(AsO 4 )·3H 2 O), (HUAs) were studied using He 2+ irradiation as an analog for α radiolysis to investigate the irradiation stability of these phases and the stability of hydronium cations in the solid state. Dose studies were employed wherein each sample was irradiated to 5, 10, 15, 25, and 50 MGy. Structural insight regarding irradiated materials is gained using optical vibrational spectroscopy and powder X-ray diffraction. Surprising irradiation stability of HUAs was found up to 50 MGy of dose, which may have important implications for understanding and modeling the geologic stability of legacy U.
Projections of future conditions within the critical zone—earthcasts—can be used to understand the potential effects of changes in climate on processes affecting landscapes. We are developing an approach to earthcast how weathering will change in the future using scenarios of climate change. As a first step here, we use the earthcasting approach to model aspect-related effects on soil water chemistry and weathering on hillsides in a well-studied east-west trending watershed (Shale Hills, Pennsylvania, USA). We completed model simulations of solute chemistry in soil water with and without the effect of aspect for comparison to catchment observations. With aspect included, aqueous weathering fluxes were higher on the sunny side of the catchment. But the effect of aspect on temperature (0.8 °C warmer soil on sunny side) and recharge (100 mm/year larger on shaded side) alone did not explain the magnitude of the observed higher weathering fluxes on the sunny side. We note modeled aspect-related differences in weathering fluxes only approach field observations when we incorporated the measured differences in clay content observed in augered soils on the two hillslopes. We also had to include a biolifting module to accurately describe cation concentrations in soil water versus depth. Biolifting lowered some mineral dissolution rates while accelerating kaolinite precipitation. These short-duration simulations also highlighted that the inherited differences in particle size on the two sides of the catchment might in themselves be explained by weathering under different microclimates caused by aspect—over longer durations than simulated with our models.