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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Herein, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Photovoltaics at multi-terawatt scale: Waiting is not an option

We report a major renewable-energy milestone occurred in 2022: Photovoltaics (PV) exceeded a global installed capacity of 1 TW dc . But despite considerable growth and cost reduction over time, PV is still a small part of global electricity generation (4 to 5% for 2022), and the window is increasingly closing to take action at scale to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while meeting global energy needs for the future. PV is one of very few options that can be dispatched relatively quickly, but discussions of TW-scale growth at the global level may not be clearly communicating the needed size and speed for renewable-energy installation. A major global risk would be to make poor assumptions or mistakes in modeling and promoting the required PV deployment and industry growth and then realize by 2035 that we were profoundly wrong on the low side and need to ramp up manufacturing and deployment to unrealistic or unsustainable levels.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Global warming potential estimates of mass timber constructions beyond the first life: A dynamic radiative forcing modeling approach

In the face of a warming planet, steps must be taken to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) associated with our building industry, which is a significant contributor to global emissions. Large, prefabricated wood elements such as mass timber panels (MTP) have great potential to achieve these reductions as they help displace high-embodied‑carbon materials like concrete and steel. Furthermore, storing the wood's biogenic carbon in buildings benefits the climate because it delays the eventual release of the carbon into the atmosphere. While these climate impacts have been assessed for the construction phase of mass timber buildings, relatively few life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have evaluated the climate impacts for the buildings' end-of-life (EOL) phase. This research estimates the climate impacts of four EOL scenarios for MTP: reusing as MTP, recycling into particleboard, incinerating, and landfilling. Using dynamic radiative forcing modeling and factoring in temporal GHG emissions and biogenic carbon storage, the global warming potential impacts are calculated for construction, deconstruction, and EOL processing of hybrid mass timber buildings in the U.S. Pacific Northwest for 160 years (GWP 160 ). The 160-year temporal scale used in this paper is an arbitrary scale, with the first 80 years being the assumed life of the building, followed by a series of reuse, recycle, or disposal scenarios over the second 80 years of that temporal scale. Of the four EOL scenarios considered in this paper, the ‘reuse’ scenario has the lowest net GWP 160 impact (calculated by summing the GWP 160 and carbon storage benefits, i.e., GWP$^{bioCS}_{160}$ ), emerging as a climate-preferred scenario, followed by ‘landfill’, ‘incinerate’, and ‘recycle’ scenarios. The lower net GWP 160 impact associated with the reuse scenario is due to the low fossil carbon emissions during EOL processing, as well as the biogenic carbon storage benefits. The results of this study also highlight the importance of efficient reuse and recycling strategies for wood in MTP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Optimized Carbon Fiber Intermediate Development to Enable High-Volume Manufacturing of Lightweight Automotive Composites

The ongoing pursuit of improved fuel economy and reduced greenhouse gas emissions has resulted in sustained interest for lightweight materials technologies. In this context, carbon fiber composites have captured the imagination of automotive engineers due to the potential to achieve substantial mass reduction when compared to traditional steel construction. That stated, the use of carbon fiber composites in automotive has been limited for the most part to premium supercars and other derivative platforms. In these cases, manufacturing costs are less of an obstacle to implementation, and the performance benefits of carbon fiber have enabled production of structures offering more than 50% weight savings. In practice, translating these low-volume demonstrations onto high-volume vehicle platforms has remained challenging. This can be attributed to several factors, with the absence of suitable high throughput production methodologies being a key impediment. To date, structural, crash critical components have relied upon manufacturing techniques born out of the aerospace industry. This has created a disconnect between automotive production systems that are accustomed to manufacturing multiple parts per minute and the aerospace technologies that have cycle times in the order of hours. Consequently, the focus of this project is the development of manufacturing process technology for carbon fiber composites that can support a mainstream vehicle program at an assumed throughput of 100,000 vehicles per year. In practice, this translates to a part-to-part cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Project participation included contributions from a broad range of academic, industrial and national lab partners. The primary scope of work, being the development of new carbon fiber epoxy compounds that are stable at room temperature and suited to high throughput automated processing. For project management, the work streams were divided into six key areas, with the lead organization in parentheses. • Carbon fiber/epoxy materials formulation development and scale up (Dow) • Simulation of discontinuous near isotropic meso-structure intermediates (Purdue) • Simulation of mechanical performance of compression molded components (Purdue) • Meso-Scale morphological analysis and correlation with structural performance (UTK) • Paint and adhesion durability analysis (MSU) • Demonstrator part design, prototype production, and validation testing (Ford). The primary goal at the commencement of the project was development of a chopped carbon fiber sheet molding compound (SMC) that offered a three times improvement in tensile modulus over a comparable glass-based SMC. In addition to meeting mechanical performance targets, the resin kinetics were modified to achieve a processing cycle time of less than 3 minutes. Other critical-to-quality (CTQ) specifications were also stipulated to account for a broad range of materials and processing characteristics. To achieve the above, staff scientists at Dow Chemical created an extensive series of new epoxy blends for testing and validation. Throughout this development, a key challenge was attaining material performance goals without impacting processing behavior and paintability of finished components. The latter required a new internal mold release system being developed by Dow that was designed to complement the kinetics of the rapid cure epoxy. As a complement to work studies at the industrial partners, the teams from academia executed a series of analytical and experimental studies to investigate potential factors influencing CF-SMC performance. Unit cell models were developed to capture the meso-scale representations of the fiber matrix architecture. Results of this analysis and subsequent morphological investigations led to the design of a novel composite derivative comprising carbon fiber platelets embedded in an epoxy matrix; the platelet size and aspect ratio playing significant role in final composite properties. This approach was a departure from previous research in CF-SMC development whereby bulk filamentization or disassembly of the carbon fiber rovings had been considered the most effective means of achieving both fiber wet through and wet-out. As the course of the academia studies progressed, the aspect ratio of the fiber constituents was further optimized before finalizing material attributes and processing conditions. For the purposes of technology validation, the Ford team led a work stream devoted to the design, fabrication and testing of demonstration components. The carbon fiber SMC material has the potential to displace numerous stampings and castings on an automotive structure but ultimately vehicle closure applications were selected to showcase the abilities of the CF-SMC to achieve both mass reduction and business case for large complex structures. Using target properties established by the Dow staff scientists, the complete closure system for a full-size sedan decklid and a mid-size wagon liftgate were engineered. Prototypes for both applications were fabricated using production representative processing methods to allow for physical testing and performance validation of the CF-SMC structures. Following completion of a testing program that concluded with a FMVSS301 55 mph offset rear crash, the CF-SMC formulation was declared by the Ford team to have met all engineering requirements. To summarize, the joint development activities during this project led to significant technical breakthroughs and achievement of all milestones. The result was the development of a novel, tack-free carbon fiber molding compound that is suited to automated processing. This combined room temperature stability, fast cure kinetics, and internal mold release system facilitates cycle times that are conducive to high-volume production. The VORAFUSE M6400 successfully passed technology validation at Ford and is now eligible for consideration on future production commercial vehicle programs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Feedstock Carbon Intensity Calculator (FD-CIC): Users’ Manual and Technical Documentation

The carbon intensities (CIs) of biofuels are determined with the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique, which accounts for the energy/material uses and emissions during the complete supply chain of biofuel including feedstock production and fuel conversion stages. Regulatory agencies such as California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts LCA to calculate biofuel CIs. The Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) program developed by CARB allows individual biofuel conversion facilities to submit their own biofuel CIs with their facility input data and incentivizes the reduction in the CI specific to that particular facility compared to a reference fuel’s CI (Liu et al 2020). Such an incentive program has driven innovations in biorefineries to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by linking their revenue directly to its CI score through LCFS credit trading. Besides the biofuel conversion stage, different farming practices for feedstock growth can result in significant CI variations for feedstocks, thus for biofuels. To provide evidence-based research findings, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Research Projects Agency–Energy (ARPA-E) has supported the Systems Assessment Center of the Energy Systems and Infrastructure Analysis Division at Argonne National Laboratory to examine CI variations of different farming practices to grow agricultural crops for biofuel production. Meanwhile, the ARPA-E has launched the Systems for Monitoring and Analytics for Renewable Transportation Fuels from Agricultural Resources and Management (SMARTFARM) program to develop technologies and data platforms that enable an accurate measurement of key farming parameters that can help robust accounting of the GHG benefits of sustainable, low-carbon agronomic practices at farm level.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Getting to Zero—and Beyond: California’s aspiration to become the first carbon-negative state appears to be achievable and affordable.

As a response to mounting concerns about the consequences of unabated climate change, California established in 2018 an aspirational goal of achieving a completely carbon-neutral economy by 2045, and becoming carbon negative after that. The state has long championed climate-friendly policies such as using energy more efficiently, generating power from renewable sources, and putting cleaner cars on the road, among other emissions-reduction strategies. Unfortunately, California’s own evaluations indicate that even when these are successful—after intensive electrification of the economy and a drastic shift away from fossil fuels—there will remain substantial greenhouse gas emissions. The residuals come from widespread small sources that are hard to control, and from larger sources that cannot be controlled in time.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Climate and air pollution implications of potential energy infrastructure and policy measures in India

India is a rapidly developing economy with interrelated air quality, sustainable development, and climate change mitigation goals. There are unique challenges to achieving each of these goals as well as potential tradeoffs among them. This study examines the implications of possible future energy, climate, and air pollution control policies and measures in India through 2050. We take a scenario approach using the GCAM global energy-climate-land model combined with the Hector simple climate model and the TM5-FASST air quality source-receptor model to examine energy, climate and air quality outcomes. Reducing use of traditional biomass in buildings can reduce primary carbonaceous particulate emissions well below 2015 levels. However, policies that are more ambitious than current plans would likely be required to reduce SO 2 and NO x emissions well below 2015 levels. Among single policy cases considered, pricing of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and expansion of natural gas infrastructure have the largest impacts on overall energy system changes relative to the reference scenario. Ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies lead to the largest reductions in air pollution concentrations and radiative forcing, respectively. However, ambitious air pollution control and GHG policies differ in the extent to which they support or impede other policy objectives. Forcing increases due to reduced aerosols from ambitious air pollution policies can be mitigated, at least in part, by applying air pollution control and GHG policies together.

India↗

Is turning down the sun a good proxy for stratospheric sulfate geoengineering?

Deliberately blocking out a small portion of the incoming solar radiation would cool the climate. One such approach would be injecting SO2 into the stratosphere, which would produce sulfate aerosols that would remain in the atmosphere for 1–3 years, reflecting part of the incoming shortwave radiation. The cooling produced by the aerosols can offset the warming produced by increased greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, but it would also affect the climate differently, leading to residual differences compared to a climate not affected by either. Many climate model simulations of geoengineering have used a uniform reduction of the incoming solar radiation as a proxy for stratospheric aerosols, both because many models are not designed to adequately capture relevant stratospheric aerosol processes, and because a solar reduction has often been assumed to capture the most important differences between how stratospheric aerosols and GHG would affect the climate. Here we show that dimming the sun does not produce the same surface climate effects as simulating aerosols in the stratosphere. By more closely matching the spatial pattern of solar reduction to that of the aerosols, some improvements in this idealized representation are possible, with further improvements if the stratospheric heating produced by the aerosols is included. This is relevant both for our understanding of the physical mechanisms driving the changes observed in stratospheric-sulfate geoengineering simulations, and in terms of the relevance of impact assessments that use a uniform solar dimming.

Visioni, Daniele↗

Minimum GHG emissions and energy consumption of U.S. PET and polyolefin packaging supply chains in a circular economy

There is a wide agreement on the urgency of transforming linear management of plastics towards a circular economy model. However, no clear pathways exist as to required recycling technologies involved and system-wide environmental impacts. This study explores such pathways in the U.S. for the most commonly used packaging plastics through a combination of mechanical and emerging advanced recycling technologies. A system optimization model aimed at minimizing environmental impacts was developed to determine optimal end-of-life (EOL) management and locations of existing and emerging U.S. recycling infrastructures. Our study includes material flows from virgin resin production through semi-manufacturing processes to existing EOL disposal and recycling processes. An optimized circular plastics packaging system achieved greenhouse gas (GHG) emission savings of up to 28% and cumulative energy demand (CED) savings of up to 46%, compared to the linear economy. Moreover, these savings of GHG emissions and CED impacts represent a reduction of 0.16% and 0.49% compared to annual U.S. GHG emissions and energy consumption in 2022, respectively. The optimal recycling rates and systems-level circularity ranged from 78–99% and 57–75%, respectively. Increased energy savings led to increased GHG emissions showing a potential trade-off between GHG emissions and energy. Analysis of 40 scenarios showed the importance of material collection distances, blend limit of mechanically recycled resins, process yields, and mandated recycling rates for achieving a sustainable circular economy of plastics.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

Cradle-to-Gate greenhouse gas emissions of the production of ethylene from U.S. Corn ethanol and comparison to fossil-derived ethylene production

Conventional ethylene production heavily depends on fossil-derived feedstocks via steam cracking, a very energy- and emission-intensive process. Researchers have been exploring alternatives to reduce CO 2 emissions including producing ethylene from biobased feedstocks. This paper evaluates the cradle-to-gate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of bioethylene produced from U.S. corn ethanol. The analysis includes different pathways for the dehydration of corn ethanol to ethylene and co-processing routes via fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) processes. For the FCC co-processing route carbon-14 analysis is used to determine bioethanol yields. A 127% reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of bioethylene is estimated compared to fossil-derived ethylene for the base case. Additional case studies are also discussed to understand the reduction of GHG emissions due to sustainable corn farming and renewable power use, biogenic carbon capture, and fuel switch with biofuels at the ethanol plant, and its impact on bioethylene GHG emissions.

carbon footprint↗

Methane Conversion and Byproduct Determination in a Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactor

The concern over greenhouse gases, methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), is increasing rapidly. There have been strides to find solutions to this global issue but there is not a clear path to a successful end goal. The concentration of CH 4 and CO 2 in the atmosphere has increased significantly over the last 60 years, methane is a great source of concern due to its ability to trap a high amount of heat in the atmosphere. These greenhouse gases contribute to global warming which has caused changes in the environment, including the melting of ice caps, and altered weather patterns. Solutions for these pressing challenges have led to different avenues of methane mitigation one of which is the development of solid-state bioreactors. These reactors harness the power of biological species that have evolved to use methane as an energy source. These methanotrophs, Methylomicrobium buryatense (5GB1), have been known to produce acetate and formate as a byproduct of the methane consumption cycle. The development of Hollow Scaffold Solid State Bioreactors (HS-SSBR) utilizes these microorganisms by way of hydrogel immobilization and infiltration of 3D printed scaffolds. The scaffolds act as a substrate for methanotroph growth and methane interaction. Methane consumption was monitored by way of gas sensors which indicated a reduction in methane concentration during the first 4 hours of closed loop methane recirculation. The byproducts of formate and acetate were confirmed by way of 1 H-NMR which indicated the 5GB1 methanotrophs were producing these molecules as a result of methane consumption.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reductant‐ or Light‐Driven ATP‐Independent Reduction of CO 2 by Nitrogenase MoFe Protein

Nitrogenase is a versatile metalloenzyme that activates and reduces small molecules like N 2 , CO, and CO 2 into value-added chemicals at ambient conditions. Previously, it is shown that the Mo-nitrogenase could reduce CO 2 to CO, but not to hydrocarbons, in an ATP-dependent reaction. Here, it is reported that the ability of the catalytic component of Mo-nitrogenase (MoFe protein) enables ATP-independent reduction of CO 2 to up to C 4 hydrocarbons in room-temperature reactions driven by a chemical reductant (Eu II –DTPA) or visible light (via CdS@ZnS (CZS) quantum dots). Moreover, an opposite deuterium isotope effect is observed on the Eu II –DTPA driven reactions of CO 2 reduction by MoFe protein and its V-counterpart (VFe protein), in that the former displays higher activities in H 2 O, and the latter displays higher activities in D 2 O. Furthermore, these results provide an important foundation for further mechanistic exploration of the nitrogenase-enabled, atypical Fischer–Tropsch type reaction that uses CO 2 instead of CO as a substrate; moreover, they serves as a potential template for the future development of nitrogenase-based applications that effectively recycle the greenhouse gas CO 2 into valuable fuel products.

C-C coupling↗

Long-Term Scenarios of Transportation Decarbonization

Achieving a net-zero emissions economy by 2050 requires aggressive curbing of transportation emissions, currently the largest source of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the fastest growing source of emissions in many countries. Transportation, a heterogeneous sector with many different passenger and freight travel modes and applications, will require a portfolio of solutions to decarbonize. To inform how to achieve significant emissions reductions in U.S. passenger and freight mobility, researchers used the Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) model to explore many transformation pathways under expert-informed bounding ranges of assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancements, and policies. Researchers performed more than 2,000 simulations to explore possible transformation pathways and found that a combination of technological, behavioral, and policy strategies enables a staggering 89% reduction in transportation GHG emissions by 2050. Key is the rapid adoption of zero-emission electric vehicles (EVs) for all on-road passenger and freight applications, alongside a simultaneous decarbonization of electricity (supported by managed charging and proper planning). Managing travel demand growth can ease the transition by reducing the requisite amount of clean electricity and sustainable fuels supply.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Analysis of U.S. Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicle-Fuel Pathways: A Greenhouse Gas Emissions Assessment of Current (2021) and Future (2035) Technologies

This study presents a cradle-to-grave lifecycle analysis of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for U.S. medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across current (2021) and future (2035) technologies using the Greenhouse gas, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) model with industry-vetted assumptions. Results vary across vehicle classes but point to common trends: today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) offer significant (10–60%) GHG emissions reduction compared to diesel internal combustion engine vehicles and are the lowest emissions option per ton-mile of cargo movement, followed by hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) (5–50% emissions reduction). Emissions savings depend largely on the duty cycle and fuel economy of the vehicle type. Future vehicle technology advancements result in comparable emission reductions associated with BEVs and hydrogen FCEVs. Weight-limited BEV trucks see less per-ton-mile emissions reduction due to the impact of battery weight on increased vehicle weight and reduced payload capacity. By 2035, improvements in vehicle efficiency can reduce emissions across all powertrains. However, very low levels of emissions require switching vehicles’ use-phase fuel/energy to low-carbon fuels and electricity. Renewable diesel, e-fuels, hydrogen produced from natural gas with carbon capture and storage or renewables, and use of low-carbon electricity can all achieve over 70% reduction in GHG emissions from the current day diesel-based internal combustion engine vehicle.

alternative fuels↗

Metaproteomics-informed stoichiometric modeling reveals the responses of wetland microbial communities to oxygen and sulfate exposure

Abstract Climate changes significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions from wetland soil. Specifically, wetland soil may be exposed to oxygen (O 2 ) during droughts, or to sulfate (SO 4 2- ) as a result of sea level rise. How these stressors – separately and together – impact microbial food webs driving carbon cycling in the wetlands is still not understood. To investigate this, we integrated geochemical analysis, proteogenomics, and stoichiometric modeling to characterize the impact of elevated SO 4 2- and O 2 levels on microbial methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. The results uncovered the adaptive responses of this community to changes in SO 4 2- and O 2 availability and identified altered microbial guilds and metabolic processes driving CH 4 and CO 2 emissions. Elevated SO 4 2- reduced CH 4 emissions, with hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis more suppressed than acetoclastic. Elevated O 2 shifted the greenhouse gas emissions from CH 4 to CO 2 . The metabolic effects of combined SO 4 2- and O 2 exposures on CH 4 and CO 2 emissions were similar to those of O 2 exposure alone. The reduction in CH 4 emission by increased SO 4 2- and O 2 was much greater than the concomitant increase in CO 2 emission. Thus, greater SO 4 2- and O 2 exposure in wetlands is expected to reduce the aggregate warming effect of CH 4 and CO 2 . Metaproteomics and stoichiometric modeling revealed a unique subnetwork involving carbon metabolism that converts lactate and SO 4 2- to produce acetate, H 2 S, and CO 2 when SO 4 2- is elevated under oxic conditions. This study provides greater quantitative resolution of key metabolic processes necessary for the prediction of CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from wetlands under future climate scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Support for climate policy researchers

In the past 2 years, the European Union and the United States announced plans to spend $573 and $391 billion, respectively, through 2030 on climate actions and passed landmark legislation such as the US Inflation Reduction Act. Although unprecedented in size and scope, these combined investments of $964 billion pale in comparison to the more than $4 trillion in global clean energy investment needed annually by 2030 to stay on track for net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Furthermore, to maximize the impact of this public money, efficient policies informed by independent, objective analysis will be needed. Yet scientists who commit to policy-relevant research face unique challenges that must be addressed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical Evidence for the Potential Climate Benefits of Decarbonizing Light Vehicle Transport in the U.S. with Bioenergy from Purpose-Grown Biomass with and without BECCS

Climate mitigation scenarios limiting global temperature increases to 1.5 °C rely on decarbonizing vehicle transport with bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but climate impacts for producing different bioenergy feedstocks have not been directly compared experimentally or for ethanol vs electric light-duty vehicles. A field experiment at two Midwest U.S. sites on contrasting soils revealed that feedstock yields of seven potential bioenergy cropping systems varied substantially within sites but little between. Bioenergy produced per hectare reflected yields: miscanthus > poplar > switchgrass > native grasses ≈ maize stover (residue) > restored prairie ≈ early successional. Greenhouse gas emission intensities for ethanol vehicles ranged from 20 to -179 g CO 2 e MJ –1 : maize stover $\gg$ miscanthus ≈ switchgrass ≈ native grasses ≈ poplar > early successional ≥ restored prairie; direct climate benefits ranged from ~80% (stover) to 290% (restored prairie) reductions in CO 2 e compared to petroleum and were similar for electric vehicles. With carbon capture and storage (CCS), reductions in emission intensities ranged from 204% (stover) to 416% (restored prairie) for ethanol vehicles and from 329 to 558% for electric vehicles, declining 27 and 15%, respectively, once soil carbon equilibrates within several decades of establishment. Extrapolation based on expected U.S. transportation energy use suggests that, once CCS potential is maximized with CO 2 pipeline infrastructure, negative emissions from bioenergy with CCS for light-duty electric vehicles could capture >900 Tg CO 2 e year –1 in the U.S. In the future, as other renewable electricity sources become more important, electricity production from biomass would offset less fossil fuel electricity, and the advantage of electric over ethanol vehicles would decrease proportionately.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploring decarbonization pathways for USA passenger and freight mobility

Abstract Passenger and freight travel account for 28% of U.S. greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions today. We explore pathways to reduce transportation emissions using NREL’s TEMPO model under bounding assumptions on future travel behavior, technology advancement, and policies. Results show diverse routes to 80% or more well-to-wheel GHG reductions by 2050. Rapid adoption of zero-emission vehicles coupled with a clean electric grid is essential for deep decarbonization; in the median scenario, zero-emission vehicle sales reach 89% for passenger light-duty and 69% for freight trucks by 2030 and 100% sales for both by 2040. Up to 3,000 terawatt-hours of electricity could be needed in 2050 to power plug-in electric vehicles. Increased sustainable biofuel usage is also essential for decarbonizing aviation (10–42 billion gallons needed in 2050) and to support legacy vehicles during the transition. Managing travel demand growth can ease this transition by reducing the need for clean electricity and sustainable fuels.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗