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At least 307 records · Page 17

Watching the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam from a distance: Implications for sustainable water management of the Nile water

Increased demands for sustainable water and energy resources in densely populated basins have led to the construction of dams, which impound waters in artificial reservoirs. In many cases, scarce field data led to the development of models that underestimated the seepage losses from reservoirs and ignored the role of extensive fault networks as preferred pathways for groundwater flow. We adopt an integrated approach (remote sensing, hydrologic modeling, and field observations) to assess the magnitude and nature of seepage from such systems using the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Africa's largest hydropower project, as a test site. The dam was constructed on the Blue Nile within steep, highly fractured, and weathered terrain in the western Ethiopian Highlands. The GERD Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Terrestrial Water Storage (GRACETWS), seasonal peak difference product, reveals significant mass accumulation (43 ± 5 BCM) in the reservoir and seepage in its surroundings with progressive south-southwest mass migration along mapped structures between 2019 and 2022. Seepage, but not a decrease in inflow or increase in outflow, could explain, at least in part, the observed drop in the reservoir's water level and volume following each of the three fillings. Using mass balance calculations and GRACETWS observations, we estimate significant seepage (19.8 ± 6 BCM) comparable to the reservoir's impounded waters (19.9 ± 1.2 BCM). Investigating and addressing the seepage from the GERD will ensure sustainable development and promote regional cooperation; overlooking the seepage would compromise hydrological modeling efforts on the Nile Basin and misinform ongoing negotiations on the Nile water management.

GRACE and GRACE-FO↗

Train, Inform, Borrow, or Combine? Approaches to Process–Guided Deep Learning for Groundwater–Influenced Stream Temperature Prediction

Although groundwater discharge is a critical stream temperature control process, it is not explicitly represented in many stream temperature models, an omission that may reduce predictive accuracy, hinder management of aquatic habitat, and decrease user confidence. We assessed the performance of a previously-described process-guided deep learning model of stream temperature in the Delaware River Basin (USA). We found lower accuracy (root mean square error [RMSE] of 1.71 versus 1.35°C) and stronger seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 1.06 vs. 0.68°C) for reaches primarily influenced by deep groundwater as compared to atmospheric conditions. We then tested four approaches for improving groundwater process representation: (a) a custom loss function leveraging the unique patterns of air and water temperature coupling characteristic of different temperature drivers, (b) inclusion of additional groundwater-relevant catchment attributes, (c) incorporation of additional process model outputs, and (d) a composite model. The custom loss function and the additional attributes significantly improved the predictive accuracy in groundwater-dominated reaches (RMSE of 1.37 and 1.26°C) and reduced the seasonal bias (absolute mean monthly bias of 0.44 and 0.48°C), but neither approach could identify holdout groundwater reaches. Variable importance analysis indicates the custom loss function nudges the model to use the existing inputs more efficiently, whereas with the added features the model relies on a broader suite of inputs. This analysis is a substantial step toward more accurately representing groundwater discharge processes in stream temperature models and will improve predictive accuracy and inform habitat management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of Agricultural Managed Aquifer Recharge (AgMAR) and Stratigraphic Heterogeneities on Nitrate Reduction in the Deep Subsurface

Agricultural managed aquifer recharge (AgMAR) is a strategy whereby surface water is used to intentionally flood croplands to recharge underlying aquifers. However, nitrate (NO 3 - ) contamination in agriculturally intensive regions poses a threat to groundwater resources under AgMAR. We use a reactive transport model to understand the effects of AgMAR management strategies (i.e., by varying the frequency, duration between flooding events, and amount of water) on NO 3 - leaching to groundwater under different stratigraphic configurations and antecedent moisture conditions. We examine the potential of denitrification and nitrogen retention in deep vadose zone sediments (~15 m) using variable AgMAR application rates on two-dimensional representations of differently textured soils, soils with discontinuous bands/channels, and with preferential flow paths characteristic of agricultural fields. Simulations indicate finer textured sediments, alone or embedded within/adjacent to high flow regions, are important reducing zones providing conditions needed for denitrification. Simulation results suggest that applying water all-at-once rather than in increments transports higher concentrations of NO 3 - deeper into the profile, which may exacerbate groundwater quality. This transport into deeper depths can be aggravated by wetter antecedent soil moisture conditions. However, applying water all-at-once also increases denitrification within the vadose zone by promoting anoxic conditions. We conclude that AgMAR can be designed to enhance denitrification in the subsurface and reduce NO 3 - leaching to groundwater, while specifically accounting for lithologic heterogeneity, antecedent soil moisture conditions, and depth to the water table. Our findings are potentially relevant to other systems that experience flooding inundation such as floodplains and dedicated recharge basins.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

biogeochemistry↗

Evaluating GCM land surface hydrology parameterizations by computing river discharges using a runoff routing model: Application to the Mississippi basin

To relate general circulation model (GCM) hydrologic output to readily available river hydrographic data, a runoff routing scheme that routes gridded runoffs through regional- or continental-scale river drainage basins is developed. By following the basin overland flow paths, the routing model generates river discharge hydrographs that can be compared to observed river discharges, thus allowing an analysis of the GCM representation of monthly, seasonal, and annual water balances over large regions. The runoff routing model consists of two linear reservoirs, a surface reservoir and a groundwater reservoir, which store and transport water. The water transport mechanisms operating within these two reservoirs are differentiated by their time scales; the groundwater reservoir transports water much more slowly than the surface reservior. The groundwater reservior feeds the corresponding surface store, and the surface stores are connected via the river network. The routing model is implemented over the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project Mississippi River basin on a rectangular grid of 2 deg X 2.5 deg. Two land surface hydrology parameterizations provide the gridded runoff data required to run the runoff routing scheme: the variable infiltration capacity model, and the soil moisture component of the simple biosphere model. These parameterizations are driven with 4 deg X 5 deg gridded climatological potential evapotranspiration and 1979 First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment precipitation. These investigations have quantified the importance of physically realistic soil moisture holding capacities, evaporation parameters, and runoff mechanisms in land surface hydrology formulations.

Liston, G. E.↗

Comoparison of Slit Trench and Engineered Trench 3D Vadose Zone Conceptual Models

In the next revision of the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) Performance Assessment (PA), radionuclide groundwater transport from slit (ST) and engineered trenches (ET) will be simulated using 3-dimensional PORFLOW models representing the vadose zone. In total, the conceptual framework will aim to model 29 total trenches with a degree of conservatism that provides a high level of confidence in meeting performance objectives. The implementation of generic conceptual models allows for a reasonable number of simulation scenarios, thereby reducing the chances of errors and enabling a better one-to-one comparison between the results, while still capturing the most important features of each trench. The current investigation seeks to understand if a generic trench model based on the general ET footprint can justifiably be used for representing both STs and ETs while maintaining a reasonable degree of conservatism. In this process, the groundwater transport of several key radionuclides was simulated for both ET and ST geometries and the flux-to-the-water-table profiles were compared. For all radionuclides simulated, the ET geometry is shown to be conservative (i.e., produces the highest peak flux to the water table).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Web-Based Tools for Data-Informed Remedy Optimization: Software Theory and User Guide

This report documents the development and application of two web-based decision-support tools for pump-and-treat (P&T) groundwater remediation systems: PTOLEMY (Pump-and-Treat Optimized Location Evaluation to Maximize Yields) and OPTIMA (Optimization for Pump-and-Treat Implementation, Management, & Assessment). These tools enhance remedy design and management by leveraging advanced computational methods – specifically deep learning and multi-objective optimization – within a user-friendly platform. By integrating data-driven models with established hydrogeological knowledge, PTOLEMY and OPTIMA enable more efficient evaluation of well placement and operational strategies, helping site managers balance multiple remediation objectives under complex conditions. Both tools are implemented as modules within the SOCRATES (Suite Of Comprehensive Rapid Analysis Tools for Environmental Sites) web platform, which provides data access, visualization, and analytics to support remedy optimization across sites in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Environmental Management complex. PTOLEMY is a rapid screening module designed to identify promising locations for new extraction wells. It employs a multi-channel three-dimensional convolutional neural network (MC3D-CNN) trained on high-fidelity simulation data to predict the relative performance (in terms of contaminant mass recovery) of potential well sites. Through an interactive web interface, PTOLEMY visualizes the probability of high performance across a site, highlighting areas where an extraction well is likely to yield above-threshold contaminant removal over a multi-year period. PTOLEMY’s map-based displays and exportable results support transparent communication of screening analyses. By focusing attention on the most favorable candidate locations, the tool augments traditional engineering judgment and physics-based modeling, providing a data informed basis for subsequent detailed evaluations. OPTIMA is a multi objective optimization module designed to find wellfield layouts and operating schedules that meet various cleanup goals. It quickly evaluates thousands of candidate setups – combinations of well locations, timing, and rates – and returns a small set of best trade-off options for comparison. At its core, OPTIMA uses a U-Net-based surrogate model – a deep-learning emulator of a groundwater flow and transport simulator – to dramatically accelerate scenario evaluations. Coupling this fast surrogate with the NSGA-II (Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) evolutionary algorithm, OPTIMA explores a wide decision space of well locations and schedules to identify Pareto-optimal solutions that trade off key objectives (e.g., minimizing cleanup time, maximizing contaminant mass removal, and minimizing plume extent). The tool outputs a family of optimal configurations and visualizes their trade-offs (Pareto frontiers of cleanup metrics and maps of optimized well placements). Site managers can use these results to understand the range of viable strategies and to select candidate designs for more detailed verification. OPTIMA is currently under active development and not yet fully released; this guide provides early documentation to support planning and gather user feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Enhanced Groundwater Recharge Rates and Altered Recharge Sensitivity to Climate Variability Through Subsurface Heterogeneity

Our environment is heterogeneous. In hydrological sciences, the heterogeneity of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivities or porosities, exerts an important control on water balance. This notably includes groundwater recharge, which is an important variable for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Current large-scale hydrological models do not adequately consider this subsurface heterogeneity. Here we show that regions with strong subsurface heterogeneity have enhanced present and future recharge rates due to a different sensitivity of recharge to climate variability compared with regions with homogeneous subsurface properties. Our study domain comprises the carbonate rock regions of Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, which cover 25 of the total land area. We compare the simulations of two large-scale hydrological models, one of them accounting for subsurface heterogeneity. Carbonate rock regions strongly exhibit karstification, which is known to produce particularly strong subsurface heterogeneity. Aquifers from these regions contribute up to half of the drinking water supply for some European countries. Our results suggest that water management for these regions cannot rely on most of the presently available projections of groundwater recharge because spatially variable storages and spatial concentration of recharge result in actual recharge rates that are up to four times larger for present conditions and changes up to five times larger for potential future conditions than previously estimated. These differences in recharge rates for strongly heterogeneous regions suggest a need for groundwater management strategies that are adapted to the fast transit of water from the surface to the aquifers.

water resources↗

Drought-induced changes in groundwater-surface water exchange at Lake Mead area

This study focuses on the Lake Mead region in the southwestern United States, a key water reservoir serving over 25 million people and agricultural lands across several states. The area has experienced recurring anthropogenic droughts since the early 2000s. We investigate the hydrological response of the coupled surface-groundwater system to the 2020–2022 drought, one of the most severe on record. To this end, we use Sentinel-1 Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to quantify vertical land motion caused by the elastic response of the crust to water-mass loss in the lake vicinity. Next, we apply an inverse elastic load modeling framework to quantify water loss. We further assess possible hydraulic connectivity between Lake Mead and adjacent groundwater reservoirs. We detect ground uplift of up to 8 mm/yr near the lake center, likely due to crustal rebound from reduced water-mass loading. We estimated the total water storage loss at 3.03 ± 0.25 km 3 /yr across a 3150 km 2 area surrounding Lake Mead. Groundwater accounts for approximately a third of that, being 0.94 ± 0.32 km 3 /yr. In addition, observed time lags of 6–98 days between lake and groundwater level responses, corresponding to a lateral diffusivity of 3.2–86 m 2 /s, suggest spatially variable connectivity between the lake and aquifers. These findings highlight that drought impacts propagate through the subsurface within interconnected systems, resulting in reduced buffering capacity of groundwater resources following droughts, and emphasizing the need for more integrated surface and groundwater management strategies to enhance resilience under climate and anthropogenic stressors.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

C3F: Collaborative Container-based Model Coupling Framework

Solving complex real-world grand challenge problems requires in-depth collaboration of researchers from multiple disciplines. Such collaboration often involves harnessing multiscale and multi-dimensional data and combining models from different fields to simulate systems. However, the progress on this front has been limited mainly due to significant gaps in domain knowledge and tools that are typically employed in silos of the domains. Researchers from different fields face considerable barriers to understanding and reusing each other’s data/models in order to collaborate effectively. For example, in solving the global sustainability problems, researchers from hydrology, climate science, agriculture, and economics need to run their respective models to study different components of the global and local food, energy and water systems while, at the same time, need to interact with other researchers and integrate the results of one model with another. Developing this kind of model coupling workflow calls for (1) a large amount of data being processed and exchanged across domains and organizations, (2) identifying and processing the output of one model to make it ready for integration into another model, (3) controlling the workflow dynamically so that it runs until a certain convergence condition or other criteria is met, and (4) close collaboration among the modelers to explore, tune, and test the configuration and data transformation needed to link the models. We have developed C3F, a flexible collaborative model coupling framework to help researchers accelerate their model integration and linking efforts by leveraging advanced cyberinfrastructure such as high-performance computing and virtual containers. In this paper, we describe our experience and lessons learned in developing this cyberinfrastructure solution to support the linking of Water Balance Model (WBM) and SIMPLE-G agricultural economic model in an NSF funded INFEWS project and a DOE-funded Program on Coupled Human and Earth Systems (PCHES) to study the implications of groundwater scarcity for food-energy-water systems. The C3F model coupling framework can be extended to facilitate other model linkages as well.

containerization↗

Field and Model Data Associated with the Manuscript “Drivers of Streamflow Intermittency in Humid Regions: 1. Evaluating Above- and Below-ground Controls of Flow Persistence in a Forested Catchment”

This package contains field data, modeling files, and scripts supporting the investigation of the drivers of streamflow intermittency in a forested catchment. It includes the field data collected from electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) surveys, ground penetrating radar (GPR), continuous self-potential (SP) monitoring, electromagnetic (EM) imaging, groundwater and stilling well. In addition, it contains the data and results of the coupled water- and electrical-flow model developed using the COMSOL Multiphysics and Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), as well as software files and Jupyter notebooks used to process the data and generate figures in the manuscript submitted for peer review. The data archive is organized in the following directories: 1) Climate Includes hourly precipitation and daily evapotranspiration time series (2024 – 2025) provided as CSV files, alongside a text file detailing dataset units. 2) Coupled_model Contains two subfolders: Synthetic and Field_Application subfolder. Synthetic subfolder contains the ATS XML input script (can be opened using any code editor) for the four synthetic hydrological cases tested (Connected and gaining, Connected and losing, Disconnected and losing, and dry stream). It also includes other experimental cases to test the influence of precipitation and concentration gradient. For each synthetic case, the flow model simulation is executed using the ATS XML scripts and the included Python script (generate_data_set.py) to convert ATS output to COMSOL-ready input. COMSOL Multiphysics template (.mph can be opened with the commercial software COMSOL and requires a license) is executed using the ATS output data to simulate the potential field. It also includes the Synthetic_model_plot.ipynb (can be opened using any code editor) to visualize the SP result and generate manuscript figures. The data subfolder contains mesh files to run both the ATS (.exo and .stl files can be viewed using Paraview; .h5 files can be opened using HDFView software and h5py Python package) and COMSOL models. Field_Application subfolder contains two subfolders: ES_MDA_inversion and Final_Model. ES_MDA_inversion contains the Python script (.py can be opened using any code editor) and SP observation data used to run the Ensemble Smoother with Multiple Data Assimilation (ES-MDA) inversion sequence to get the optimal model parameters. The Final_model subfolder contains the ATS XML input scripts, data files, output data for the two SP sites. The same workflow steps outlined for the Synthetic subfolder apply here. It also contains the Jupyter notebook (Plot_final_calib.ipynb) to visualize the results of the modeled SP, stream-groundwater exchange and moisture content. 3) Discharge Includes the electrical conductivity (EC) time series (provided as CSV files) from salt slug injections. It also includes the Jupyter notebook (Discharge_process.ipynyb) used to estimate discharge. All discharge measurements collated into rating_curve_processed.csv 4) EM Contains the CSV file of the EM data from the DUALEM-42, including spatial coordinates (x, y, z), apparent conductivity, and in-phase measurements at 2 m coil separations for horizontal coplanar (HCP) and perpendicular (PRP) geometries. 5) ERT Contains raw resistivity data (provided as CSV files), spatial location of each of the electrodes (provided as CSV files), and files used for the resistivity inversion (.resipy can be opened with the open-source ResIPy software). 6) GPR Includes GPR field datasets collected at 100 MHz and 250 MHz antenna frequencies, along with the processing/interpretation project file (GPR_process.gpz can be viewed using EKKO_Project 6, a commercial software by Sensors & Software that requires a license). 7) Slug_test Includes the slug test data at all the groundwater wells provided as CSV files, as well as the Jupyter notebook (Slug_test.ipynb) for calculating hydraulic conductivity. 8) SP Contains the SP data collected in field at the two SP sites (one in the perennial reach and the other in the intermittent reach), provided as DAT files. 9) Well_data Contains two subfolders: 1) Raw, which provides unprocessed pressure, electrical conductivity and temperature timeseries downloaded from the loggers in all the groundwater and stilling wells, and 2) Processed, which contains sorted, QA/QC timeseries data for each well. The data archive also contains data_process.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook used for field data analysis and generating figures (plotting well, SP, climate, and discharge data, as well as calculating head gradient at sites with nested groundwater wells). It also includes DTW.ipynb, a Jupyter notebook containing the code for the dynamic time warping (DTW) with sliding window to evaluate SP signal synchronicity.

ATS↗

Machine Learning in Environmental Chemistry: Application to Surface Complexation Modeling

Environmental chemistry – or biogeochemistry – is the scientific discipline typically invoked when examining and quantifying groundwater or surface water contamination, and nutrient cycling in the environment. Over the last three decades, there have been significant advances in mechanistic model development to describe and predict these complex biogeochemical processes. In particular, surface complexation models (SCMs) have been developed to describe the rock/soil surface reactions of metals and radionuclides, and their partitioning between various mobile species in the aqueous phase or immobile species sorbed on solid surfaces. Often represented by a simplified linear isotherm constant – Kd – in reactive transport models, these reactions play a critical role in many environmental science applications; particularly in contamination risk assessments and nuclear waste disposal performance assessments. In the past several decades, efforts by various institutions across the world have focused on developing SCMs based on datasets from laboratory measurements, including the identification of key parameters such as equilibrium constants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Warming and snow loss increase reliance on old groundwater in a Colorado River headwater

Atmospheric warming is reducing snowpack, with uncertain effects on mountainous streamflow, a crucial water resource. Despite limited historical observations of groundwater–streamflow interactions above 2,500 m, new measurements in the Upper Colorado River headwaters indicate declining groundwater storage that is dated decades to millennia old. Here we use integrated hydrologic modelling spanning water years 2015–2021 to determine whether the loss of old-age groundwater buffers streamflow during low-snow years and whether that loss is exacerbated with warming. Results show that old-groundwater contributions to streams remain relatively steady through time, unlike the more variable contributions from young groundwater. Numerical experiments of increased surface air temperatures (+2.5 °C and +4 °C) increase rain–snow fractions and evapotranspiration and decrease runoff ratio by 2–3% per degree Celsius increase. As streamflow declines with warming, the age of groundwater supporting it gets older, in part owing to intermediate-aged (1–3 year) groundwater declining twice as fast. Simulations show that water table depths at higher elevations (>3,700 m) decline disproportionately and fail to recover even during wet years. These findings suggest altered groundwater–streamflow interactions with warming and snow loss, with implications for water resources.

Siirila-Woodburn, Erica R. [Lawrence Berkeley Nati↗

ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) integrated hydrology and reactive transport model output in Copper Creek, Colorado

This dataset is generated using the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) model at Copper Creek, Colorado, the largest catchment in the East River watershed. ATS is an integrated hydrology and reactive transport model to simulate the Concentration-Discharge (C-Q) relationship, and is used to quantify the geochemical export and understand how watersheds respond to climate disturbances. Key hydrogeochemical variables, including discharge, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and geochemical concentrations, were simulated and output at a daily frequency at the Copper Creek outlet. A group of hydrology and geochemical model variables over the spatial domain are output at a bi-monthly frequency. The model used 1-km resolution daily frequency Daymet meteorological forcing, and mineral composition from previous studies. The simulations are performed on NERSC. The datasets include the input files for running the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) simulation, including the mesh file, input script and geochemical model files. The output files from the ATS (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator) are the daily time-series discharge and geochemical concentration simulated at the outlet of Copper Creek, and the bi-monthly spatial output over the simulation domain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Tracking Radioactive Isotopes in HVAC and Application for Hot Cell Analyses - 20155

In recent years, the surge in the number of isotope production facilities under design has increased the need to analyze isotope migration in facility Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) during normal operations and accident scenarios. These facilities are used to produce isotopes for medical, security, and industrial applications and as such are subject to license and regulatory requirements 10CFR20, 10CFR30, 10CFR50, and 10CFR70. GOTHIC, a general-purpose thermal-hydraulics software package, includes the ability to model isotopic tracers, radioactive decay and isotope migration as well as HEPA and charcoal filters for isotope retention. A GOTHIC model was developed by Zachry Nuclear Engineering (ZNE) to examine the effect of negative room pressure, HEPA filtration, and HVAC fluctuations on radiation areas, hot cells and gloveboxes. Radioactive tracers were used to simulate the concentration of spills within contaminated areas, track the migration of isotopes of interest, and determine the isotopic retention and buildup on facility HEPA filters. A variety of isotopes with concern to dose (e.g., Kr-85, Sr-90, I-131, etc.), including their decay and progeny, are included in the analysis. Negative pressures are maintained in the regions of interest by a representative central HVAC system equipped with a volumetric fan that exhausts to the environment after a series of isolation valves and HEPA filters. GOTHIC is an industry trusted tool for providing engineering solutions for a variety of applications, including fission product tracking, aerosol and particulate transport and ventilation assessments. The software provides an integrated analysis environment that includes a graphical user interface (GUI) for constructing analysis models, a numerical solver that includes parallel processing capabilities and a post-processor for evaluating simulation results. It solves the conservation equations for mass, momentum and energy for multicomponent, multi-phase flow in lumped parameter and multi-dimensional geometries (1, 2, or full 3D), including the effects of turbulence, diffusion and buoyancy. It has been developed and maintained under a Quality Assurance program in compliance with the requirements of 10CFR50 Appendix B and applicable portions of ASME NQA-1 since 1995. GOTHIC has been used for assessing both forced and natural convection conditions for a wide range of applications, including: - Tracking concentration of hazardous gases and chemicals for habitability and safety assessments - Determining ventilation and filtration requirements and optimizing location and arrangement of these systems - Room heat-up, including diverse and Flexible coping strategies for Extended Loss of AC Power (FLEX/ELAP) - Equipment Qualification (EQ) A distinctive feature of GOTHIC is the ability to track many different fields/substances in a simulation, including user defined tracer elements, in the liquid, vapor and droplet fields as well as surfaces and filters. This capability allows GOTHIC to model fission product transport and release or the removal of particulates or harmful toxins from exhaust gases using a spray scrubber or other types of filtration systems. GOTHIC also includes models for engineered equipment, such as fans, filters, charcoal filters, dryers/demisters, dampers, etc. The aerosols and other filtered material are removed or accumulated in these components. The range of aerosol and radiological applications that GOTHIC has been used for includes: - Source Term: Primary Coolant (Equilibrium) Activity; Non-Water Coolant Source/Leakage. - Conditions for Iodine Re-evolution: Sump/Suppression Pool Conditions and pH; - RWST Conditions and pH. - Isotope Removal Mechanisms: Containment Sprayed and Unsprayed Region Mixing; Charcoal Filter Heating due to Iodine decay. - Radionuclide Transport and Decay: Post-LOCA Release in containment; Transport between connected Compartments and vent systems; Groundwater transport of radionuclides. - Non-Newtonian Fluid modeling for sludge, waste tanks, etc. ADAMS ML071581053 (titled 'Best Practice Guidelines for the use of CFD in Nuclear Reactor Safety Applications') poses guidelines for applying single phase CFD codes in nuclear reactor safety problems and GOTHIC is listed as a 'tool for 3D flows' and 'dispersal and deposition of radionuclides.' The Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA) pedigree of GOTHIC is an important aspect for applications in the nuclear industry. The fundamental tracer models (convective transport, molecular and turbulent diffusion, removal mechanisms, etc.) have been verified using analytical solutions and validated against applicable separate effects tests. Also, GOTHIC has been benchmarked to many integrated effects tests, including Phebus FP (Fission Product). GOTHIC gives good agreement for the buildup and decay of fission products in Phebus Test 3. The model developed by ZNE demonstrates GOTHIC's applicability and acceptability for use in analyzing the migration and retention of radioactive isotopes and their progeny in normal operation and accident scenario analyses for isotope production facilities, hot cells, and gloveboxes. The tracer activities calculated by GOTHIC can then be used in downstream radiation transport and shielding codes like RADTRAD-NAI{sup C}, MCNP{sup R}, and MicroShield{sup R} to determine on-site and of-site doses. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Constraining Bedrock Groundwater Residence Times in a Mountain System With Environmental Tracer Observations and Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification

Groundwater residence time distributions provide fundamental insights on the hydrological processes within watersheds. Yet, observations that can constrain groundwater residence times over broad timescales remain scarce in mountain catchment studies. We use environmental tracers (CFC-12, SF 6 , 3 H, and 4 He) to investigate groundwater residence times along a hillslope in the East River Watershed, Colorado, USA. We develop a Bayesian inference framework that applies a Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to estimate noble gas recharge temperature, elevation, and excess-air parameters and the resulting environmental tracer concentrations. MCMC is then used to propagate the environmental tracer uncertainties to estimates of groundwater mean residence times inferred with lumped parameter models. All samples contain 3 H, CFC-12, and SF 6 in addition to terrigenic 4 He, suggesting a mixture of water characterized by modern and premodern residence times. 4He exponential mean residence times range from hundreds of years at the upslope well to thousands of years at the toe-slope well assuming average crustal production rates. We find that binary mixing residence time distributions with separate young and old mixing fractions are needed to predict the 4 He, CFC-12, SF 6 , and 3 H observations, supporting the importance of flow path mixing in this bedrock system. Our findings that the fractured bedrock hosts groundwater with a mixture of residence times ranging from decades to millennia suggest variable recharge dynamics and flow path mixing along the hillslope and highlight the importance of characterizing groundwater systems with observations that are sensitive to transport over a broad range of residence times.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early arrival waveform inversion using data uncertainties and matching filters with application to near-surface seismic refraction data

We develop an early arrival waveform inversion (EAWI) technique for high-resolution near-surface velocity estimation by iteratively updating the P-wave velocity model to minimize the difference between the observed and calculated seismic refraction data. Traditional EAWI uses a least-squares penalty function and an acoustic forward-modeling engine. Conventional least-squares error is sensitive to data with low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) and iterations of EAWI stop at a local-minimum data misfit or at the preassigned maximum number of iterations. These stopping criteria can result in overfitting the data. In addition, fitting the elastic field data with an acoustic modeling engine can introduce artifacts in velocity estimation, especially in land data with significant elastic effects. To overcome these challenges, we develop a robust EAWI (REAWI) method by (1) incorporating the data uncertainties into the penalty function and (2) mitigating the elastic effects using a matching filter workflow. The data uncertainties are estimated from waveform reciprocal errors. When full-waveform reciprocity is not available, trace interpolation is applied. The proposed method prevents closely fitting data with low S/N, avoids overall overfitting by stopping the iterations when a normalized chi-square ([Formula: see text]) waveform misfit of one is achieved, and is less affected by elastic effects. Numerical examples and application to near-surface refraction data at a groundwater contamination site suggest that the final REAWI models are more accurate than the corresponding EAWI models, at the same level of misfit. This is the first known application of a matching filter workflow to real land data. The final REAWI models satisfy an appropriate misfit between the real data and predicted elastic P-wave data, making this approach in this respect equivalent to elastic waveform inversion. We also develop a method to analyze model constraint by examining the energy of the wavefield Fréchet derivative thereby avoiding the influence of the data residuals in traditional Fréchet kernels.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Predictive Integrated Stratigraphic Modeling (PRISM®) Work Plan Center Wide Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Potential Release Location (PRL) 237 Kennedy Space Center, Florida

This document presents a description of various site investigation activities that will be used to improve the conceptual site model (CSM) at the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) to develop a better understanding of the fate and transport of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in groundwater and surface water. The activities proposed herein include three primary tasks: a sequence stratigraphic analysis, groundwater and surface water gauging and sampling, and a stormwater pollutant modeling analysis.

PFAS↗