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At least 307 records · Page 17

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DOE OSTI2025

Projected evolution of droughts and human exposure in the contiguous United States under SSP5-8.5: a regional downscaling perspective

The increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather patterns under a warming climate underscore the urgency of accurate regional assessments of future drought risk. This study evaluates the projected drought evolution in the contiguous United States under the high-emission shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 climate scenario for the coming decades. Using a multi-model ensemble of six Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models combined with dynamical downscaling techniques, we analyzed near-term (2020–2039) and mid-term (2040–2059) drought patterns using the self-calibrating palmer drought severity index (ScPDSI), the standardized precipitation index (SPI-12), and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-12). Results reveal a widespread increase in abnormally dry (D0) and moderate drought (D1) conditions, particularly in urban areas, while severe (D2), extreme (D3), and exceptional (D4) droughts are expected to become less common in many regions. Meanwhile, persistent and intensifying droughts are projected in the western and southwestern U.S., driven by long-term soil moisture deficits. The ScPDSI projects that 1.1 million urban residents will be affected by D0 conditions in 2050, while SPI-12 suggests a decrease in the total affected populations after 2040. ScPDSI indicates prolonged droughts in the West, and SPI-12 captures transient variability. Although the total drought-exposed population is expected to decrease, urban areas will continue to bear a greater burden, particularly for mild droughts (D0, D1). These findings highlight a shift toward more frequent mild droughts, fewer severe droughts, and persistent drying in the Southwest, emphasizing the need for region-specific adaptation strategies.

CMIP6↗

DOE OSTI2025

Matrix Metalloproteinases as Candidate Antigenic Determinants for Anti‐Tumor Autoantibodies in Human Ovarian Cancer: A Post Hoc Analysis

Circulating antibodies in patients with cancer can facilitate the identification of accessible epitopes on autoantigens expressed by tumors. To identify previously unrecognized protein targets in ovarian cancer, we computationally assessed a heptapeptide consensus motif (VPELGHE, flanked by two cysteine residues yielding a cyclic nonapeptide under oxidizing conditions) previously discovered via phage display-based epitope mapping of autoantibodies in patients. Eight proteins associated with ovarian cancer encompass amino acid sequences similar to the consensus motif and were, therefore, considered as candidate native autoantigens. Among these candidate targets, however, matrix metalloproteinase 14 (MMP14) demonstrates gene expression that is both high and negatively correlated with survival in ovarian cancer patient cohorts. MMP14 protein levels are also stable in tumor versus non-tumor tissues. Moreover, the corresponding heptapeptide mimic in MMP14 occurs within an α-helical secondary structural element observed in its catalytic domain. These findings demonstrate that a subset of patient-derived autoantibodies may interact with a previously unknown antigenic epitope found in MMP14 and other MMPs, thereby providing opportunities for the development of new targeted agents.

Biochemistry & Molecular Biology↗

DOE OSTI2025

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse↗

DOE OSTI2024

Establishing reference ranges for circulating biomarkers of drug‐induced liver injury in healthy human volunteers 1

Aims The potential of mechanistic biomarkers to improve prediction of drug‐induced liver injury (DILI) and hepatic regeneration is widely acknowledged. We sought to determine reference intervals for new biomarkers of DILI and regeneration, as well as to characterize their natural variability and impact of diurnal variation. Methods Serum samples from 227 healthy volunteers were recruited as part of a cross‐sectional study; of these, 25 subjects had weekly serial sampling over 3 weeks, while 23 had intensive blood sampling over a 24h period. Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), MicroRNA‐122 (miR‐122), High Mobility Group Box‐1 (HMGB1), total Keratin‐18 (K18), caspase‐cleaved Keratin‐18 (ccK18), Glutamate Dehydrogenase (GLDH) and Macrophage Colony‐Stimulating Factor‐1 (CSF‐1) were assayed. Results Reference intervals were established for each biomarker based on the 97.5% quantile (90% CI) following the assessment of fixed effects in univariate and multivariable models. Intra‐individual variability was found to be non‐significant, and there was no significant impact of diurnal variation. Conclusion Reference intervals for novel DILI biomarkers have been described. An upper limit of a reference range might represent the most appropriate mechanism to utilize these data. These data can now be used to interpret data from exploratory clinical DILI studies and to assist their further qualification as required by regulatory authorities.

Jorgensen, Andrea L. [Department of Health Data Sc↗

DOE OSTI2025

Draft assemblies for three geographically distinct isolates of the human-infecting microsporidium Encephalitozoon intestinalis

Encephalitozoon intestinalis is an obligate intracellular parasite that causes enteritis, bronchitis, conjunctivitis, and/or encephalitis in immunosuppressed and immunocompetent individuals. To better assess its genetic diversity, here we report near-chromosome-level draft genome assemblies for three geographically distinct isolates, quadrupling the number of genome assemblies available for the enigmatic fungal pathogen.

Biological and medical sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exercise alters molecular profiles of inflammation and substrate metabolism in human white adipose tissue

White adipose tissue (WAT) plays a significant role in whole body energy homeostasis, and its excess typifies obesity. In addition to WAT quantity, perturbations in the basic cellular processes of WAT (i.e., quality) are also associated with obesity and metabolic disease. Exercise training alleviates metabolic perturbations associated with obesity; however, the underlying molecular mechanisms that drive these metabolic adaptations in WAT are not well described. For this work, abdominal subcutaneous WAT biopsies were collected after an acute bout of exercise (1 day after) at baseline and following 3 wk of supervised aerobic training in sedentary overweight women (n = 6) without alterations in body weight and fat mass. RNA-seq, global proteomics, and phosphoproteomics in WAT revealed training-induced changes in 1,527 transcripts, 154 proteins, and 144 phosphosites, respectively. Training decreased abundance of transcripts and proteins involved in inflammation and components of the extracellular matrix and increased abundance of transcripts and proteins related to fatty acid esterification and lipolysis. In summary, short-term aerobic training significantly reduces local inflammation and increases lipid metabolism in WAT of sedentary overweight women—independent of alterations in body and fat mass. As such, some of the health benefits of aerobic training may occur through molecular alterations in WAT (i.e., enhanced quality) rather than a sheer reduction in WAT quantity.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Electric Grid Simulator For Human Factor Research

The developed code simulates real-time monitor and control for west area of IEEE 118-bus system. The 24-hour load profile for each bus is derived by scaling the system’s rated load in the PSSE sav file according to the California Independent System Operator’s Day-ahead load forecast for May 1, 2024. This simulator performs several critical functions: (1) Calculating time-series power flow every 4 seconds; (2) Updating and dispatching AGC signals every minute; (3) Conducting N-1 contingency analysis every 5 minutes. Additionally, the simulator can trip lines and subsequently update and dispatch AGC signals, running power flow analysis after each tripping event.

Huang, Jianqiao [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), ↗

DOE OSTI2026

AIF for Vis (Active Inference for simulating human interpretation of data visualization) [SWR-26-084]

AIF for Vis contains the Active Inference models and analysis scripts used to study a simple visualization-interpretation task: estimating the average value of two bars in a bar chart. The work is a proof of concept for translating hypothesized cognitive strategies into executable, inspectable process models. We implement two idealized strategies inspired by dual-process accounts of visualization-aided decision making: *Fast model: a compressed, heuristic strategy that estimates the visual midpoint of the two bars and maintains a single belief over their average. *Slow model: a sequential, analytic strategy that estimates the two bar heights separately and maintains them in working memory before computing an average. Both models use a common Active-Inference-inspired framework for sequential perception, belief updating, action selection, and reporting. Their different internal representations produce distinct predicted vulnerabilities: *the Fast model is more susceptible to tick-salience bias; *the Slow model is more susceptible to working-memory decay. The repository includes the model implementations, scripts used for the experiments reported in the paper, precomputed trial-level results, and plotting scripts.

Goldwyn, Harrison [National Laboratory of the Rock↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Tale of Two Simulators—A Comparative Human-in-the-Loop Nuclear Power Plant Operations Study on Thermal Power Dispatch for Hydrogen Production

A study was designed for a reconfigurable, full-scale, full-scope nuclear power plant control room simulator to compare two different thermal power dispatch systems, on separate simulator platforms, demonstrating a TPD concept of operation. A TPD system can provide a desirable alternative revenue source for utilities but requires addressing new and unique operational issues. The selection of representative scenarios and the scenario-based experimental design are presented as key elements to capture evidence for validating the developed TPD concept of operations overcome these operational issues.

Ulrich, Thomas A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

The human plasma lipidome response to exertional heat tolerance testing

The year of 2023 displayed the highest average global temperatures recorded in history— the duration and severity of extreme heat are projected to increase. Rising global temperatures represent a major public health threat, especially to occupations exposed to hot environments, such as construction and agricultural workers, and first responders. Despite efforts of the scientific community, there is still a need to characterize the pathophysiological processes leading to heat related illness and develop biomarkers that can predict its onset. Here, we performed a plasma lipidomic analysis on male and female subjects who underwent heat tolerance testing (HTT), consisting of a 2-h treadmill walk at 5 km/h with 2% inclination at a controlled temperature of 40oC. We identified 995 lipids from 27 classes, with nearly half of all detected lipids being responsive to HTT. Lipid classes related to substrate utilization were predominantly affected by HTT, with a downregulation of triacylglycerols and upregulation of free fatty acids and acyl-carnitines. We additionally examined correlations between changes in plasma lipids by using the even chain acyl-carnitines is physiological strain index (PSI). Here, even chain acyl-carnitines, bi-products of incomplete beta oxidation, and diacylglycerols displayed the highest correlation to PSI. PSI did not correlate with plasma lactate levels, which suggests that correlations with related to metabolic efficiency versus physical exertion. Overall, our results show that HTT has a strong impact on the plasma lipidome and that incomplete beta oxidation may underlie heat intolerance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry model for humans: Pediatric and adult computational skeleton phantoms for internal bone marrow dosimetry

Currently, computational phantoms that simulate skeletal tissues are used in active red bone marrow (AM) internal dosimetry. Up-to-date reference computational phantoms recommended by the ICRP are based on the analysis of CT-images of cadavers. Such phantoms have significant disadvantages. One disadvantage is that the assessment of uncertainty due to the population variability of skeleton dimensions and microstructure results from the limited availability of autopsy material. Another disadvantage is the simplified modelling of cortical layer and bone microarchitecture. A method of stochastic parametric skeletal dosimetry modelling of the bone structures – SPSD modelling – has been developed as an alternative to the ICRP reference phantoms. In the framework of this approach, skeletal phantom parameters are evaluated based on extensively reviewed results of published measurements of real bones. The SPSD approach allows for the assessment of both population-average values and their variability. SPSD-phantoms of the skeleton are modelled in voxel representation. They consist of smaller phantoms of the bone sites – segments – described by simple geometric shapes with uniform microarchitecture parameters. Such segmentation makes it possible to account for non-homogeneous skeletal microarchitecture and to model the bone structure with the required voxel resolution to elaborate suitable skeletal phantoms. The current study presents the parameters of the SPSD skeletal phantoms for the following age-groups: newborn, 1-year-old, 5-year-old, 10-year-old, 15-year-old (male and female), and adult (male and female). This skeletal phantom can be used for dosimetry as an alternative to available reference phantoms for bone-seeking radionuclides. The above-mentioned age- and sex-specific skeletal phantoms are comprised of 289 unique segments. The characteristics of the SPSD phantoms do not contradict published data and are in good agreement with the measurement results of real bones.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024