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NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗
NASA NTRS1977

A search for helium ions in the recovery phase of a magnetic storm

Data from an energetic ion mass spectrometer experiment on the low-latitude polar-orbiting satellite 1971-89A were examined for evidence of helium ions in the region of the ring current during the recovery phase of the December 17-18, 1971 magnetic storm. The principal precipitating ion species with energies between 0.7 and 12 keV were observed to be O+ and H+. No evidence for He+ was obtained. Inferences about the composition of the trapped population are made on the basis of simultaneous observations in the equatorial plane by Explorer 45. Coordinated observations with Explorer 45 and the Fritz Peak Observatory during the period of a stable auroral red arc have provided some information on the ionospheric and magnetospheric processes associated with the arc. A comparison of charge exchange and precipitation lifetimes during the recovery phase of the December 17-18 storm has shown both processes to be of comparable importance as ring current decay mechanisms in the energy range of the observations.

Sharp, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Extreme Poleward Expanding Super Plasma Bubbles Over Asia-Pacific Region Triggered By Tonga Volcano Eruption During the Recovery-Phase of Geomagnetic Storm

The Tonga volcano eruption of 15 January 2022 unleashed a variety of atmospheric perturbations, coinciding with the recovery-phase of a geomagnetic storm. The ensuing thermospheric variations created rare display of extreme poleward-expanding conjugate plasma bubbles seen in the rate of total electron content index over 100–150°E, reaching ∼40°N geographic latitude. This is associated with fluctuations in FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (F7/C2) ion-density measurements and spread-F in ionograms. Preceding to this, an unusually strong pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) occurred in the global ionospheric specification (GIS) electron density profiles derived from F7/C2 observations. The GIS also revealed a decrease of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest density due to the storm impact. Reduced E-region conductivity by volcano-induced waves and enhanced F-region wind, further accelerated by reduced ion-drag over the EIA, apparently intensified the PRE. Accompanied with the strong PRE, volcano-induced seed perturbations triggered the super plasma bubble activity.

P. K. Rajesh↗
NASA NTRS2016

GEM-CEDAR Challenge: Poynting Flux at DMSP and Modeled Joule Heat

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗
NASA NTRS1975

Radio detection of thunderstorm activity with an earth-orbiting satellite

A study was made to determine the feasibility of using artificial earth satellites to monitor thunderstorm activity. The nighttime noise-temperature measurements made with the earth-oriented vee antenna of the Radio Astronomy Explorer (RAE 1) satellite in the frequency range 0.2-9.2 MHz were correlated with reported surface thunderstorm activity. Analysis shows that the minimum nighttime HF noise level (in the absence of surface thunderstorms) at an altitude of 5850 km over the United States is fixed by man-made noise. When thunderstorms are active below the satellite, the noise level is increased by about 6-12 dB. The highest level is associated with the most intense storms. It is concluded that thunderstorm regions can be detected by an orbiting satellite using HF radio techniques, but ionospheric effects must be taken into account.

Herman, J. R.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Compton Gamma Ray Observatory/BATSE observations of energetic electrons scattered by cyclotron resonance with waves from powerful VLF transmitters

To obtain a better understanding of the wave-particle mechanisms responsible for the loss of electrons from the radiation belts, energetic electron data from the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) on the NASA's Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO) was studied. Powerful ground-based VLF transmitters resonantly scatter electrons from the inner radiation belt onto trajectories from which they precipitate into the atmosphere as they drift eastward. 563 instances in which the satellite traversed a cloud of energetic electrons which had been scattered into quasi-trapped trajectories were identified. From the longitude distribution, it was concluded that waves from the VLF transmitter NWC at 114 deg E are the origin of 257 of the events, and waves from UMSat 44 deg E related to 45 more. In another 177 cases the electrons had drifted from the longitude of these transmitters to a location in the western hemisphere. The previously reported seasonal variation in the frequency of occurrence of cyclotron resonance interaction is confirmed with the continuous coverage provided by GRO. The frequency of occurrence of the cyclotron resonance interactions is largest before sunrise, which we attribute to the diurnal variations in the transmission VLF waves through the ionosphere. For the first time, unique very narrow sheets of electrons occurring in the aftermath of a large geomagnetic storm are reported.

Datlowe, Dayton W.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Sun and Earth

Thus the Sun forms the basis for life on Earth via the black body radiation it emits. The Sun also emits mass in the form of the solar wind and the coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Mass emission also occurs in the form of solar energetic particles (SEPs), which happens during CMEs and solar flares. Both the mass and electromagnetic energy output of the Sun vary over a wide range of time scales, thus introducing disturbances on the space environment that extends from the Sun through the entire heliosphere including the magnetospheres and ionospheres of planets and moons of the solar system. Although our habitat is located in the neutral atmosphere of Earth, we are intimately connected to the non-neutral space environment starting from the ionosphere to the magnetosphere and to the vast interplanetary space. The variability of the solar mass emissions results in the interaction between the solar wind plasma and the magnetospheric plasma leading to huge disturbances in the geospace. The Sun ionizes our atmosphere and creates the ionosphere. The ionosphere can be severely disturbed by the transient energy input from solar flares and the solar wind during geomagnetic storms. The complex interplay between Earth's magnetic field and the solar magnetic field carried by the solar wind presents varying conditions that are both beneficial and hazardous to life on earth. This seminar presents some of the key aspects of this Sun-Earth connection that we have learned since the birth of space science as a scientific discipline some half a century ago.

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk↗
NASA NTRS1985

Transport of ions in presence of induced electric field and electrostatic turbulence - Source of ions injected into ring current

The transport of ions from the polar ionosphere to the inner magnetosphere during stormtime conditions has been computed using a Monte Carlo diffusion code. The effect of the electrostatic turbulence assumed to be present during the substorm expansion phase was simulated by a process that accelerated the ions stochastically perpendicular to the magnetic field with a diffusion coefficient proportional to the energization rate of the ions by the induced electric field. This diffusion process was continued as the ions were convected from the plasma sheet boundary layer to the double-spiral injection boundary. Inward of the injection boundary, the ions were convected adiabatically. By using as input an O(+) flux of 2.8 x 10 to the 8th per sq cm per s (w greater than 10 eV) and an H(+) flux of 5.5 x 10 to the 8th per sq cm per s (w greater than 0.63 eV), the computed distribution functions of the ions in the ring current were found to be in good agreement, over a wide range in L (4 to 8), with measurements made with the ISEE-1 satellite during a storm. This O(+) flux and a large part of the H(+) flux are consistent with the DE satellite measurements of the polar ionospheric outflow during disturbed times.

Cladis, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Dynamics explorer interdisciplinary scientist investigations

This document is a final report on research activities and accomplishments that occurred during the funding period of 10-1-90 through 1-30-94. The focus of our interdisciplinary investigation during the Dynamics Explorer Mission was on the complex coupling processes that tap the magnetic-storm energy, stored in the ring current particle reservoir, and transport this energy into the subauroral, midlatitude and even equatorial ionospheric regions. The transport of energy through the inner magnetosphere and into the underlying ionospheric regions is a critical element in our understanding of the impact of solar and magnetic disturbances on upper atmospheric and ionospheric regions equatorward of the auroral zone.

Kozyra, Janet U.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Geomagnetically Induced Currents Caused by Interplanetary Shocks with Different Impact Angles and Speeds

The occurrence of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) poses serious threats to modern technological infrastructure. Large GICs result from sharp variations of the geomagnetic field (dB∕dt) caused by changes of large-scale magnetospheric and ionospheric currents. Intense dB∕dt perturbations are known to occur often in high-latitude regions as a result of storm time substorms. Magnetospheric compressions usually caused by interplanetary shocks increase the magnetopause current leading to dB∕dt perturbations more evident in midlatitude to low-latitude regions, while they increase the equatorial electrojet current leading to dB∕dt perturbations in dayside equatorial regions. We investigate the effects of shock impact angles and speeds on the subsequent dB∕dt perturbations with a database of 547 shocks observed at the L1 point. By adopting the threshold of dB∕dt = 100 nT/min, identified as a risk factor to power systems, we find that dB∕dt generally surpasses this threshold when following impacts of high-speed and nearly frontal shocks in dayside high-latitude locations. The same trend occurs at lower latitudes and for all nightside events but with fewer high-risk events. Particularly, we found nine events in equatorial locations with dB∕dt > 100 nT/min. All events were caused by high-speed and nearly frontal shock impacts and were observed by stations located around noon local time. These high-risk perturbations were caused by sudden strong and symmetric magnetospheric compressions, more effectively intensifying the equatorial electrojet current, leading to sharp dB∕dt perturbations. We suggest that these results may provide insights for GIC forecasting aiming at preventing degradation of power systems due to GICs.

Oliveira, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events Using Library Tools (CAMEL) Framework: Time Series Comparisons

The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework leverages existing Community Coordinated Modeling Center services: Run on Request post processing tools that generate model time series outputs and the new Community Coordinated Modeling Center Metadata Registry that describes simulation runs using Space Physics Archive Search and Extract metadata. The new CAMEL visualization tool compares the modeled time series with observational data and computes a suite of skill scores such as Prediction Efficiency, Root Mean Square Error, and Symmetric Signed Percentage Bias. Model data pairs used for skill calculations are obtained considering a user selected maximum difference between the time of observation and the nearest model output. The system renders available data for all locations and time periods selected using interactive visualizations that allow the user to zoom, pan, and pick data values along traces. Skill scores are reported for each selected event or aggregated over all events for all participating model runs. Separately, scores are reported for all locations (satellites or stations) and for each location individually. We are building on past experiences with model data comparisons of magnetosphere and ionosphere model outputs from GEM2008, GEMCEDAR Electrodynamics Thermosphere Ionosphere, and the SWPC Operational Space Weather Model challenges. The CAMEL visualization tool is demonstrated using three validation studies: (a) Wang Sheeley Arge heliosphere simulations compared against OMNI solar wind data, (b) ground magnetic perturbations from several magnetosphere and ionosphere electrodynamics models as observed by magnetometers, and (c) electron fluxes from several ring current simulations compared to Radiation Belt Storm Probes Helium Oxygen Proton Electron instrument measurements, integrated over different energy ranges.

Rastätter, Lutz↗
NASA NTRS1981

Global ionospheric electric field measurements in April 1978

This paper presents an introduction to a global campaign of simultaneous quasi-static electric field measurements from radars, balloons, and satellites at various places within the earth's environment for April 8-14, 1978. The 7-day time period encompassed both extended magnetically quiet times as well as two magnetic storms. These storms were related to SSCs that followed solar flares, one of which included a day-long solar proton event. The wide variety of instrumentation and associated operating modes involved in this campaign is described. Sample conjunctions between satellites and ionospheric measurements are shown that demonstrate that field line mapping is valid under certain circumstances. Some of the largest ionospheric electric fields ever reported with greater than 100-km scale size occurred on April 11, and these events are discussed in detail.

Holzworth, R.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Current Understanding of Magnetic Storms: Storm/Substorm Relationships

This paper attempts to summarize the current understanding of the storm/substorm relationship by clearing up a considerabel amount of controversy and addressing the question of how solar wind energy is deposited into the constituent elements that are critical to magnetospheric and ionospheric processes.

Magnetic↗
NASA NTRS1978

AE-C observations of low-energy particles and ionospheric temperatures in the turbulent polar cusp - Evidence for the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability

Particle observations at 283 km acquired with the AE-C spacecraft during the large geomagnetic storm of May 16, 1975 indicate that the polar cusp was displaced to 71 deg invariant latitude between 1020 and 1244 MLT. Three regions of low-energy particle fluxes were determined which may be indentified with regions of field-aligned current flow in the dayside auroral zone and cusp. It is suggested that the low-energy electrons are scattered and that their pitch angles are isotropized by magnetic fluctuations associated with the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability caused by shear in the proton flow into the cusp.

Potemra, T. A.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Mesospheric Dynamical Changes Induced by the Solar Proton Events in October-November 2003

The very large solar storms in October-November 2003 caused solar proton events (SPEs) at the Earth that impacted the upper atmospheric polar cap regions. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) was used to study the atmospheric dynamical influence of the solar protons that occurred in Oct-Nov 2003, the fourth largest period of SPEs measured in the past 40 years. The highly energetic solar protons caused ionization, as well as dissociation processes, and ultimately produced odd hydrogen (HOx) and odd nitrogen (NOy). Significant short-lived ozone decreases (10-70%) followed these enhancements of HOx and NOy and led to a cooling of most of the lower mesosphere. This cooling caused an atmospheric circulation change that led to adiabatic heating of the upper mesosphere. Temperature changes up to plus or minus 2.6 K were computed as well as wind (zonal, meridional, vertical) perturbations up to 20-25% of the background winds as a result of 22 the solar protons. The solar proton-induced mesospheric temperature and wind perturbations diminished over a period of 4-6 weeks after the SPEs. The Joule heating in the mesosphere, induced by the solar protons, was computed to be relatively insignificant for these solar storms with most of the temperature and circulation perturbations caused by ozone depletion in the sunlit hemisphere.

Jackman, Charles H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Imaging Thermal He(+)in Geospace from the Lunar Surface

By mass, thermal plasma dominates near-earth space and strongly influences the transport of energy and mass into the earth's atmosphere. It is proposed to play an important role in modifying the strength of space weather storms by its presence in regions of magnetic reconnection in the dayside magnetopause and in the near to mid-magnetotail. Ionospheric-origin thermal plasma also represents the most significant potential loss of atmospheric mass from our planet over geological time. Knowledge of the loss of convected thermal plasma into the solar wind versus its recirculation across high latitudes and through the magnetospheric flanks into the magnetospheric tail will enable determination of the mass balance for this mass-dominant component of the Geospace system and of its influence on global magnetospheric processes that are critical to space weather prediction and hence to the impact of space processes on human technology in space and on Earth. Our proposed concept addresses this basic issue of Geospace dynamics by imaging thermal He(+) ions in extreme ultraviolet light with an instrument on the lunar surface. The concept is derived from the highly successful Extreme Ultraviolet imager (EUV) flown on the Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft. From the lunar surface an advanced EUV imager is anticipated to have much higher sensitivity, lower background noise, and higher communication bandwidth back to Earth. From the near-magnetic equatorial location on the lunar surface, such an imager would be ideally located to follow thermal He(+) ions to high latitudes, into the magnetospheric flanks, and into the magnetotail.

Gallagher, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Inner Magnetospheric Electric Fields Derived from IMAGE EUV

The local and global patterns of plasmaspheric plasma transport reflect the influence of electric fields imposed by all sources in the inner magnetosphere. Image sequences of thermal plasma G:istribution obtained from the IMAGE Mission Extreme Ultraviolet Imager can be used to derive plasma motions and, using a magnetic field model, the corresponding electric fields. These motions and fields directly reflect the dynamic coupling of injected plasmasheet plasma and the ionosphere, in addition to solar wind and atmospheric drivers. What is being learned about the morphology of inner magnetospheric electric fields during storm and quite conditions from this new empirical tool will be presented and discussed.

Gallagher, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Global Circulation and Impact of Plasmaspheric Plumes

We report results from the global circulation model of Lyon, Fedder, and Mobarry with an embedded model of the inner magnetosphere including the plasmasphere. The combination is used to initiate large numbers of representative protons on the geosynchronous orbit L shell, to assign particle weightings, to track their: subsequent trajectories in the 3D fields. This permits us to study the global circulation of plasmaspheric plumes and to compare these with Polar observations from the dayside magnetopause region . A range of events is studied from an isolated period of SBz in the solar wind,to a large storm sequence. We consider effects on circulating plasma reaching the dayside reconnection X-line, the population of the plasma sheet with ionospheric protons and the generation of ring current pressure from this source, compared with solar wind, polar wind, and auroral wind sources. We find that the transient plasmaspheric plume source is large in terms of total fluence, but of modest proportions in terms of contribution to the ring current. Implications of this and other results for improved space weather modeling and prediction will be discussed.

Moore, Thomas E.↗