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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2024

Transport from electron-scale turbulence in toroidal magnetic confinement devices

Plasma transport driven by turbulence ultimately determines the energy confinement performance of controlled fusion devices regardless of their confinement schemes and configurations. A large variety of plasma instabilities have been proposed for driving turbulence responsible for anomalous plasma transport beyond classical/neoclassical transport due to collisions. Although ion-scale turbulence usually dominates due to its large eddy size and saturation level, electron-scale turbulence has been recognized to be important in regions where ion-scale turbulence is suppressed (e.g., in internal transport barrier and in spherical tokamak H-mode plasmas) or is close to marginality. Electron-scale turbulence has been shown to nonlinearly interact with ion-scale turbulence, which modifies the dynamics of both and affects the resulting plasma transport, particularly when ion-scale instability is weakly driven. In this review paper, we focus on electron-scale turbulence that is believed to operate in magnetically confinement fusion devices and aim to provide a review of theoretical, numerical, and experimental developments in understanding electron-scale turbulence and its role in driving anomalous plasma turbulence. In particular, we focus on the electrostatic electron temperature gradient (ETG) mode which is the most widely recognized plasma instability underlying electron-scale turbulence observed in magnetically confined plasmas. Finally, we note that there are other less studied instabilities that might be responsible for observed electron-scale turbulence, most notably ubiquitous mode, and short-wavelength ion temperature gradient (SWITG) mode, which will be briefly touched on in this review.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Turbulence and E × B flow correlations across the L-H transition in DIII-D deuterium and hydrogen plasmas

The isotope dependence of the low- to high confinement-mode (L- to H-mode) transition power threshold P LH presents significant challenges for the initial (non-nuclear) hydrogen operations phase of the international thermonuclear experimental reactor (ITER). Here, we examine the isotope dependence of turbulence and E × B flow correlation properties in the L-mode edge plasma, leading up to the L-H transition. At marginal auxiliary power (near P LH ), turbulence is initially suppressed periodically during limit cycle oscillations (LCO) that precede the transition to sustained H-mode confinement. Here, we present evidence that the long-range (toroidal) correlation of the E × B edge plasma flow across the LCO phase is much weaker in hydrogen than in deuterium in the DIII-D tokamak, congruent with the higher threshold power P LH required to access LCO and H-mode in hydrogen. Concomitantly, the time required to initially quench edge turbulence via localized edge E × B flow shear is significantly longer in hydrogen (1–1.5 ms) than in deuterium (approx. 100 µs). No toroidal long-range correlation of the turbulence amplitude is observed, in agreement with expectations based on the relatively short poloidal turbulence correlation length. Radial edge turbulence and flow correlation lengths are longer in deuterium than in hydrogen plasmas as one would expect from ‘naïve’ gyro-Bohm isotope transport scaling, despite the substantially higher thermal flux across the last closed flux surface in hydrogen before the L-H transition. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'H-mode transition and pedestal studies in fusion plasmas'.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Detection of Defects in Additively Manufactured Metallic Materials with Machine Learning of Pulsed Thermography Images

Additive manufacturing (AM) is an emerging method for cost-efficient fabrication of nuclear reactor parts. AM of metallic structures for nuclear energy applications is currently based on laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) process, which can introduce internal material flaws, such as pores and anisotropy. Integrity of AM structures needs to be evaluated nondestructively because material flaws could lead to premature failures due to exposure to high temperature, radiation and corrosive environment in a nuclear reactor. Quality control (QC) requires nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of actual AM structures. Pulsed thermography is a potentially promising QC technique because it is scalable to arbitrary structure size. However, detection sensitivity of this method is limited by noises. We investigate separation of signal from noise in thermography images using several machine learning (ML) methods, including new spatio-temporal blind source separation (STBSS) and spatio-temporal sparse dictionary learning (STSDL) methods. Performance of the ML methods is benchmarked using thermography data obtained from imaging stainless steel 316L and Inconel 718 specimens produced LPBF method with imprinted calibrated porosity defects. The ML methods are ranked by F-score and execution runtime. The ML methods with higher accuracy require longer run time. However, this runtime is sufficiently short to perform QC within a realistic time frame.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information on key indicators of the state of the climate system and of the human influence on the global climate system. However, successive IPCC reports are published at intervals of 5–10 years, creating potential for an information gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close as possible to those used in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. We compile monitoring datasets to produce estimates for key climate indicators related to forcing of the climate system: emissions of greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers, greenhouse gas concentrations, radiative forcing, the Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed to human activities, the remaining carbon budget, and estimates of global temperature extremes. The purpose of this effort, grounded in an open-data, open-science approach, is to make annually updated reliable global climate indicators available in the public domain. As they are traceable to IPCC report methods, they can be trusted by all parties involved in UNFCCC negotiations and help convey wider understanding of the latest knowledge of the climate system and its direction of travel. The indicators show that, for the 2014–2023 decade average, observed warming was 1.19 [1.06 to 1.30] °C, of which 1.19 [1.0 to 1.4] °C was human-induced. For the single-year average, human-induced warming reached 1.31 [1.1 to 1.7] °C in 2023 relative to 1850–1900. The best estimate is below the 2023-observed warming record of 1.43 [1.32 to 1.53] °C, indicating a substantial contribution of internal variability in the 2023 record. Human-induced warming has been increasing at a rate that is unprecedented in the instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] °C per decade over 2014–2023. This high rate of warming is caused by a combination of net greenhouse gas emissions being at a persistent high of 53±5.4 Gt CO 2 e yr -1 over the last decade, as well as reductions in the strength of aerosol cooling. Despite this, there is evidence that the rate of increase in CO 2 emissions over the last decade has slowed compared to the 2000s, and depending on societal choices, a continued series of these annual updates over the critical 2020s decade could track a change of direction for some of the indicators presented here.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

HiFiPDV2 v. 2

SAND2024-01061O The HiFiPDV-2 software is similar to other photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) analysis codes in that it converts signals from intensity-time space to frequency-time space using a short-time Fourier transform (STFT). It then analyzes peaks of the resulting power spectral density information to extract the velocity-time history. The unique aspects of HiFiPDV and HiFiPDV-2 are that this reduction process is repeated for an array of reasonable STFT input variables. The resulting population distribution of output velocity-time histories is evaluated to determine the most likely velocity history and its associated uncertainty. This uncertainty is defined as the systematic uncertainty of the PDV signal as it is a function of input values to the reduction process. The HiFiPDV-2 program brings new functionality and efficiency to these calculations—most notably significant reductions in memory usage and calculation times, the ability to evaluate frequency-shifted signals, and the ability to filter out baseline signals. Developers recommend that users have at least 2 GB of RAM per CPU core in their system. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Voorhees, Travis↗
DOE OSTI2021

Study of Conduction-Cooled Superconducting Quadrupole Magnets Combined with Dipole Correctors for the ILC Main Linac

A superconducting rf (SRF) cryomodule for International Linear Collider(ILC) Main Linac equips focus/steering magnets. The magnets are "superferric" magnets with four superconducting (SC) race track coils conductively cooled from the cryomodule LHe supply pipe. The quadrupole field gradient and dipole field are 40 T/m and 0.1 T, respectively. The magnet length and iron-pole radius are 1 m and 0.045 m, respectively. It is known that dark current is generated at SRF cavities and accelerated through the following linac string. The dark current reaches and heats the SC magnets. It is estimated that the power deposition in the magnet may reach more than a few watts and temperature of the SC coils may locally reach to critical temperature of NbTi. It is important to make the magnet not reach quench with sufficient conduction cooling. We aim to realize the SC magnet which can stably operate under such condition. We plan to develop test coils made of three types of SC materials, NbTi, Nb₃Sn, and MgB₂ and study thermal characteristics and stability . We will develop a short model magnet, based on the test coil results. Here, we will present the magnet design study and the R&D plan.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Psychometric property study of the Affective Lability Scale-short form in Chinese patients with mood disorders

Introduction This study aimed to investigate the psychometric properties of the Affective Lability Scale-short form (ALS-SF) among Chinese patients with mood disorders, and to compare ALS-SF subscale scores between patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and patients with bipolar disorder (BD) depression. Methods A total of 344 patients with mood disorders were included in our study. Participants were measured through a set of questionnaires including the Chinese version of ALS-SF, Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7-item (GAD-7), and NEO-Five Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI). Exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis were applied to examine the psychometric properties of ALS-SF. Besides, correlation and regression analyses were performed to explore the relationship between affective lability and depression, anxiety, and neuroticism. Independent samples t -tests were used to compare the subscale scores of ALS-SF between the MDD and BD depression groups. Results Results of factor analysis indicated that the model of ALS-SF was consistent with ALS-SF. The ALS-SF showed a solid validity and high internal consistency (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.861). In addition, each subscale of ALS-SF was significantly correlated with PHQ-9, GAD-7, and NEO-FFI neuroticism subscale, except for the anger subscale showed no significant correlation with PHQ-9. Besides, the depression/elation and anger factor scores in patients with BD depression were higher than in patients with MDD. Conclusion Our study suggests that the Chinese version of ALS-SF has good reliability and validity for measuring affective lability in Chinese patients with mood disorders. Assessing affective lability would assist clinicians to distinguish between MDD and BP depression and may decrease the risks of misdiagnosis.

Ma, Mohan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Charge correlations and magnetoelastic coupling in intercalated transition metal dichalcogenides

The large van der Waals gap in transition metal dichalcogenides (TMDs) offers an avenue to tune the ground state of 2D materials through the intercalation of magnetic atoms. Here, we investigate the charge correlations in Fe 1/3 ⁢TaS 2 , Co 1/3 ⁢TaS 2 , and Fe 0.35 ⁢NbS 2 by combining angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy (ARPES), x-ray scattering, magnetometry, and density functional theory (DFT). We find that, while short-range charge fluctuations develop in Ta-based compounds, Fe 0.35 ⁢NbS 2 exhibits long-range charge order which is strongly coupled with magnetic order and tunable by external magnetic field. Our electronic structure analysis reveals that intercalation reconstructs the Fermi surface via charge transfer and band renormalization, yet does not generate the nesting conditions compatible with the observed ordering vectors. Complementary phonon calculations further exclude a conventional electron-phonon origin of charge order. Together, these results establish magnetoelastic coupling as the dominant mechanism behind charge ordering in Fe 0.35 ⁢NbS 2 and highlight the contrasting role of Nb and Ta hosts in stabilizing correlated ground states in intercalated TMDs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Turbulence and Temperature Fluctuations on Knock Development in an Ethanol/Air Mixture

The effects of turbulence on knock development and intensity for a thermally inhomogeneous stoichiometric ethanol/air mixture at a representative end-gas autoignition condition in internal combustion engines are investigated using direct numerical simulations with a skeletal reaction mechanism. Two- and three-dimensional simulations are performed by varying the most energetic length scale of temperature, \(l_T\) , and its relative ratio with the most energetic length scale of turbulence, \(l_T/l_e\) , together with two different levels of the turbulent velocity fluctuation, \(u'\) . It is found that \(l_T\) / \(l_e\) and the ratio of ignition delay time to eddy-turnover time, \(\tau _{ig}/\tau _t\) , are the key parameters that control the detonation development. An increase in either \(l_T\) or \(l_e\) enhances the detonation propensity by allowing a longer run-up distance for the detonation development. The characteristic length scale of the temperature field, \(l_T\) , is significantly modified by high turbulence intensity achieved by a large \(l_e\) and \(u'\) . The intense turbulence mixing effectively distributes the initial temperature field to broader scales to support the developing detonation waves, thereby increasing the likelihood of the detonation formation. On the contrary, high turbulence intensity with a short mixing time scale, achieved by a small \(l_e\) and a large \(u'\) , reduces the super-knock intensity attributed to the finer broken-up structures of detonation waves. Either \(\tau _{ig}/\tau _t\) less than unity or \(l_e = l_T\) even with a large \(u'\) is found to have no significant effect on super-knock mitigation. Finally, high turbulent intensity may induce high-pressure spikes comparable to the von Neumann spike. Overall, increased temperature and pressure by combustion heating, noticeably after the peak of heat release rate, significantly enhance the collision and interaction of multiple emerging autoignition fronts near the ending combustion process, resulting in localized high-pressure spikes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing modelling approaches for a generic nuclear waste repository in salt

This paper contains a comparison of five modelling approaches for a simplified nuclear waste repository in a domal salt formation. It is the result of a four-year collaboration between five international teams on Task F of the DECOVALEX-2023 project on performance assessment modelling. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. This work demonstrates how these objectives are accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions, ranging from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation and repository. Despite differences in the modelling strategies, all models indicate that salt compaction and diffusion of radionuclides in brine are key processes in the repository. For the isothermal spent nuclear fuel and vitrified waste scenario with multiple early failures considered, all models indicate little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000-year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the conceptual model.

DECOVALEX↗
DOE OSTI2025

HPC-Driven Modeling with ML-Based Surrogates for Magnon-Photon Dynamics in Hybrid Quantum System

Here, we introduce a hybrid computational framework that merges HPC-based numerical solvers with physics-informed ML surrogates for efficient modeling of magnon-photon interactions. By running short-duration, high-fidelity Maxwell-LLG simulations and feeding their results into an ML model, we substantially cut simulation time while achieving accurate predictions across larger spatiotemporal domains.

Accuracy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Metal hydrides: a historical perspective

Metal hydrides are known for their outstanding performance as materials for hydrogen storage and processing. These materials find applications for short- and long-term energy storage, compression and supply of hydrogen gas, thermal energy storage, as electrodes and electrolytes in rechargeable batteries, for the microstructural optimisation of functional materials, in thin film technologies, as catalysts, getters and in many other uses. After the discovery of the first binary metal hydrides back in the 19th century, their studies covered all possible binary M-H systems and expanded rapidly into the field of ternary hydrides following the recognition of the excellent hydrogen storage performance of LaNi 5 - and TiFe-based materials, which operate efficiently at room temperature and at near-ambient H 2 pressures. This review aims to provide an overview of the early works, as well as selected recent results on various classes of metal hydrides. It also covers the recent activities from the major contributing countries and continents, including USA, Europe, Japan, China and Australia. These studies relate to achieving the hydrogen storage systems goals set by the Department of Energy in the United States which inspired the research activities at the national and international level, through execution of the tasks on hydrogen-based energy storage managed by the International Energy Agency. The review is prepared by international experts in the field and covers the most important past developments and also presents the recent achievements in the field.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Measurements of Electron Beam-Induced Spin-Relaxation in Frozen-Spin Hydrogen-Deuteride (HD)

Targets of solid hydrogen-deuteride (HD) can be prepared in a frozen-spin state with spin relaxation times (T1) in excess of a year. The present work has studied their potential use in experiments with electron beams. Polarization relaxation rates have been measured during exposure to sub-nanoAmp currents of 9.7 MeV electron beams from the recently commissioned Upgraded Injector Test Facility (UITF) at Jefferson Lab (JLab). These UITF measurements can be used to anticipate the expected performance at the GeV energies typical of JLab experiments, since the energy deposition in a target is almost independent of beam energy. An in-beam dilution refrigerator equipped with superconducting solenoids has been used to maintain solid HD samples at ?0.1 K and ?1 tesla, and internal NMR coils have been used to monitor hydrogen polarization. Spin-relaxation in two frozen-spin targets, with initial H-polarizations of 40% and 34%, have been tracked while exposed to beams under varying conditions of current, dose, beam duty factor and temperature. At a fixed accumulated dose, the spin-relaxation rates drop with current, suggesting depolarization by the charge cloud of the beam. Imposing a duty factor on the otherwise continuous UITF beam, with forced millisecond scale gaps, has shown no obvious correlation to polarization loss rates. After an accumulated dose of ?2 ?C/cm2, beam-off spin-relaxation rates drop from their immeasurably long pre-irradiation values to the order of weeks (with beam-on T1 values typically an order of magnitude shorter), reflecting a buildup of paramagnetic charge centers within the HD lattice. The accumulated polarization loss was approximately proportional to dose in both targets, dropping to 1/e of their initial values after ?6 ?C/cm2. Thermal equilibrium polarizations of targets not in the frozen-spin state (with intentionally short T1) have been used to deduce the in situ temperature of solid HD while under electron bombardment. A model for depolarization by beam-associated paramagnetic impurities largely accounts for the data, and suggests that improvements in heat removal could lead to significant increases in the in-beam T1.

O'Connell, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2025

Turbulence suppression at extreme plasma densities on DIII-D and EAST

Recent high-poloidal-beta (high-βP) experiments on DIII-D and EAST have made coordinated breakthroughs for high confinement quality at high density near the Greenwald limit. Density gradient amplification of turbulence suppression at high βP can explain both of these achievements. Experiments on DIII-D have achieved Greenwald fraction (fGr = line-averaged density/Greenwald density) above 1 simultaneously with normalized energy confinement (H98y2) around 1.5, as required in fusion reactor designs but never before verified in tokamak experiments with the divertor configuration. A synergy between increased H98y2 and fGr is observed with strong gas puffing, due to the build-up of an internal transport barrier at large radius in the temperature and density channels. Transport simulations reveal that the favorable trend of reduced turbulent energy transport at higher density is only expected when increasing the density gradient at high local safety factor and high β, thus at high βP to ensure strong α-stabilization. These conditions are crucial to many conceptual designs for steady-state reactors. New experiments on EAST have nearly doubled the ion temperature at fGr ∼ 0.9, consistent with predict-first modeling results based on the same physics revealed from the DIII-D analysis. All previous EAST long-pulse H-modes have Ti ≪ Te near plasma axis. Transport modeling indicates that the profiles are limited by ion-temperature-gradient modes at mid-radius. The modeling also suggested potential solutions, including reducing magnetic shear, enhancing density gradients, and higher impurity concentration. Following this guidance, EAST experiments directly show a strong enhancement of Ti achieved with a combination of a second plasma current ramp-up, a density gradient increase, and a Zeff perturbation by a short pulse (100 ms) of impurity injection, as predicted by the earlier modeling.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Electrical Systems of Pumped Storage Hydropower Plants: Electrical Generation, Machines, Power Electronics, and Power Systems

Adjustable-speed (AS) pumped storage hydropower (PSH) technology has the potential to become a large, consistent contributor to grid stability enabling higher penetrations of wind and solar energy on the future U.S. power system. AS-PSH has high-value characteristics, such as fast response to provide ancillary services to the grid, because it is a power converter interface with the grid (like battery storage), but at the same time it has the energy content large enough to supply both short-term (seconds-to-minutes) and long-term (minutes-to-hours) of energy needs, like more conventional power plants. However, designs must be optimized to lower the capital expenditure (CapEx) and to provide a high-quality grid interface capability (e.g. power quality, ancillary service provider, fault-tolerant or fault ride-through capability), which is a primary factor in the acceptance of AS-PSH into a utility’s generation mix. This CapEx will be greatly affected by the cost savings associated with the civil structure, turbine design, power electronics, control systems, or unique generator designs. A holistic design must be considered to get a full picture of the benefits of the technology proposed. The AS-PSH can be controlled to reduce the impact of transient disturbance on a power system and at the same time can be controlled to minimized subsequent component fatigue and potential oscillation modes within the plant, with the overall impact in reducing the operational expenditures (OpEx).Generating clean power to meet standards such as Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) 519 and International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) 1000-3-2 will be a continuing challenge. For many technology developers, however, improved AS-PSH technologies will become a key component of generator-storage systems of the future given the prospects of increased performance and decreasing costs, and the ever-increasing penetration of renewables (e.g wind power and solar power).

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Issue Resolution During the Development of the Performance Assessment for the Savannah River Site Saltstone Disposal Facility - 20125

In 2019, Savannah River Remediation developed a revision to the performance assessment (PA) on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Savannah River Operations Office (SR) for the near-surface disposal of low-level waste at the Savannah River Site (SRS) Saltstone Disposal Facility (SDF). Soluble waste from SRS Tank Farms undergoes salt processing to remove cesium and other high-activity constituents. The low-activity decontaminated salt solution (DSS) is then immobilized by mixing it into a cementitious waste form known as saltstone. After mixing, the saltstone is poured into leak-tight concrete vaults, known as saltstone disposal units (SDUs), where the waste form cures. By the time of facility closure, the SDF is expected to consist of 15 SDUs with a combined capacity of 1.06 E+09 L (280 Mgal) of cured saltstone. The facility operates under a Disposal Authorization Statement from DOE and a permit from the South Carolina Department of Health and Environmental Control (SCDHEC). Since the start of operations in 1990, the SDF has received almost 6.7 E+07 L (18 Mgal) of DSS, resulting in the safe disposal of 2.7 E+16 Bq (7.3 E+05 Ci) of activity. Due to the radioactive decay of short-lived contaminants, the total remaining activity in the disposed waste is estimated to be approximately 1.4 E+16 Bq (3.9 E+05 Ci), as of September 2018. The Disposal Authorization Statement requires a demonstration that the system of engineered and natural features of the disposal facility will limit releases from the facility and be protective of human health and the environment for at least the next 1,000 years. The long-term performance of the facility was evaluated under the requirements of the DoE's Radioactive Waste Management Manual (US DOE Manual 435.1-1). Simulations were performed to demonstrate that the disposal facility would meet performance objectives specified in the manual. The evaluation was based on numerical models that simulate the releases of contaminants from the saltstone waste form. Contaminants were transported through groundwater and air pathways to points of assessment to evaluate compliance (i.e., 100 m from the SDUs). In addition, the potential consequences of an inadvertent human intrusion (IHI) were also evaluated. A number of issues were overcome during the development of these simulations. These issues were identified as part of internal technical reviews. Simulations are developed by people and people make mistakes, so the internal technical review process is a vital step in PA development. Specific examples of resolved issues include a unit-conversion error, an inappropriate definition for a model boundary condition, a model time-stepping issue, and an error in the calculation for the buildup of contaminants in soil. Actions taken to address these issues resulted in an improved product with a better supported technical basis and more defensible results. The identification and correction of these issues are discussed. By understanding these issues, model developers and technical reviewers working on PAs in the future may avoid repeating these types of mistakes. Transparency with respect to these mistakes builds trust between waste management sites, regulators, and stakeholders. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Technical Issues in the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) Ratification Debate: A 20 Year Retrospective

Two decades after the U.S. Senate declined in 1999 to give its consent to ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), the treaty remains in legal and political limbo. Legally, the treaty cannot enter into force without U.S. ratification. However, the Senate’s rejection does not strip the treaty of its force as an element of customary international law or alter the will of other signatories to see it enter into force. Politically, the debate over the virtues and flaws of the treaty remains as strong as ever, with some CTBT advocates pushing energetically for U.S. re-review while some opponents seek ways to “un-sign” the treaty. Meanwhile, despite the Senate’s rejection of the treaty, the United States acts in a manner consistent with its main obligations by maintaining a moratorium on explosive nuclear testing and providing financial support (as well as technical expertise) to the CTBT Organization (CTBTO)—in particular the CTBTO’s International Monitoring System (IMS). The CTBT may well remain in such limbo for a long time to come, unless some catalytic event comes along to re-shape national perceptions and priorities, one way or the other. The treaty’s future, whatever it might be, will be determined in part by how much perspectives might have changed in light of interim developments. Our purpose is to shed light on some of those developments and to assess their relevance. The 1999 ratification debate addressed a large number of issues. Rejection was driven by various policy and technical judgments. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine those technical judgments in light of what has been learned over the following two decades. On some technical matters, there was explicit recognition of extant uncertainties, as well as a conviction and hope that time would dispel them. To be doubly clear, our purpose is not to recommend a way forward on CTBT ratification. The policy judgments of 1999 and 2020 are beyond the scope of this paper. This technical re-examination proceeds as follows. It begins with a short background section to introduce the key technical matters in discussion in the U.S. ratification process. Then it moves systematically through each of those topics with a review of relevant background information, a discussion of key points in debate, an analysis of subsequent experience, and a current assessment. The historical analysis draws on many sources including the primary documents of the Congressional debate, the official article-by-article interpretation by the Department of State, and the statements of key players in the process. We also relied on key technical reports and publications by subject matter experts that have addressed in more detail many of the issues in our focus. These sources include the 2002 and 2012 reports of the National Academy of Sciences as well as publications by senior technical staff of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) who were actively involved in the ratification debate, including then-Laboratory Director Bruce Tarter. We also conducted several interviews with government officials from the 1990s, past laboratory directors, and other members of the scientific community. But, except where individuals are specifically cited by name, the judgments offered here are our own and should not be attributed to any other individual or to LLNL as such.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating the state-of-the-art in remote volcanic eruption characterization Part I: Raikoke volcano, Kuril Islands

Raikoke, a small, unmonitored volcano in the Kuril Islands, erupted in June 2019. We integrate data from satellites (including Sentinel-2, TROPOMI, MODIS, Himawari-8), the International Monitoring System (IMS) infrasound network, and global lightning detection network (GLD360) with information from local authorities and social media to retrospectively characterize the eruptive sequence and improve understanding of the pre-, syn- and post- eruptive behavior. In this work, we observe six infrasound pulses beginning on 21 June at 17:49:55 UTC as well as the main Plinian phase on 21 June at 22:29 UTC. Each pulse is tracked in space and time using lightning and satellite imagery as the plumes drift eastward. Post-eruption visible satellite imagery shows expansion of the island's surface area, an increase in crater size, and a possibly-linked algal bloom south of the island. We use thermal satellite imagery and plume modeling to estimate plume height at 10–12 km asl and 1.5–2 × 10 6 kg/s mass eruption rate. Remote infrasound data provide insight into syn-eruptive changes in eruption intensity. Our analysis illustrates the value of interdisciplinary analyses of remote data to illuminate eruptive processes. However, our inability to identify deformation, pre-eruptive outgassing, and thermal signals, which may reflect the relatively short duration (~12 h) of the eruption and minimal land area around the volcano and/or the character of closed-system eruptions, highlights current limitations in the application of remote sensing for eruption detection and characterization.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗