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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Hidden Markov model analysis of force/torque information in telemanipulation

A model for the prediction and analysis of sensor information recorded during robotic performance of telemanipulation tasks is presented. The model uses the hidden Markov model to describe the task structure, the operator's or intelligent controller's goal structure, and the sensor signals. A methodology for constructing the model parameters based on engineering knowledge of the task is described. It is concluded that the model and its optimal state estimation algorithm, the Viterbi algorithm, are very succesful at the task of segmenting the data record into phases corresponding to subgoals of the task. The model provides a rich modeling structure within a statistical framework, which enables it to represent complex systems and be robust to real-world sensory signals.

Hannaford, Blake↗

Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifying limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility.

Rouse, William B.↗

Assessing the impact of modeling limits on intelligent systems

The knowledge bases underlying intelligent systems are validated. A general conceptual framework is provided for considering the roles in intelligent systems of models of physical, behavioral, and operational phenomena. A methodology is described for identifing limits in particular intelligent systems, and the use of the methodology is illustrated via an experimental evaluation of the pilot-vehicle interface within the Pilot's Associate. The requirements and functionality are outlined for a computer based knowledge engineering environment which would embody the approach advocated and illustrated in earlier discussions. Issues considered include the specific benefits of this functionality, the potential breadth of applicability, and technical feasibility.

Rouse, William B.↗

Analyzing gamma-ray burst spectral data

The paper describes an improved method for calculating gamma-ray spectra of gamma-ray bursts. This method is independent of any assumed model for the incident spectrum. In many cases it makes it possible to perform chi-squared model fitting without detailed knowledge of the instrument response functions. The results of extensive calculations using simulated data and realistic response functions are presented; the Backus-Gilbert technique produces model-independent spectral estimates that are quantitatively accurate and easy to calculate.

Loredo, Thomas J.↗

Dispersion Loss Counteracts Embedding Condensation and Improves Generalization in Small Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) achieve remarkable performance through ever-increasing parameter counts, but scaling incurs steep computational costs. To better understand LLM scaling, we study representational differences between LLMs and their smaller counterparts, with the goal of replicating the representational qualities of larger models in smaller models. We observe a geometric phenomenon which we term embedding condensation, where token embeddings collapse into a narrow cone-like subspace in some language models. Through systematic analyses across multiple Transformer families, we show that small models such as GPT2 and Qwen3-0.6B exhibit severe condensation, whereas larger models such as GPT2-x1 and Qwen3-32B are more resistant to this phenomenon. Additional observations show that embedding condensation is not reliably mitigated by knowledge distillation from larger models. To fight against it, we formulate a dispersion loss that explicitly encourages embedding dispersion during training. Experiments demonstrate that it mitigates condensation, recovers dispersion patterns seen in larger models, and yields performance gains across 10 benchmarks. We believe this work offers a principled path toward improving smaller Transformers without additional parameters.

Xiao, Xi [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000009316982)↗

A reference solar spectral irradiance for use in atmospheric modeling

The present state of knowledge concerning the absolute magnitude and temporal variability of the solar spectral irradiance is outlined with emphasis on wavelengths relevant to the mesosphere and stratosphere. Reference spectra for the wavelength region 175 to 850 nm are presented including estimates for solar maximum and solar minimum conditions. Values for the Lyman alpha emission are given separately.

Source record↗

Atmosphere, ocean, and land: Critical gaps in Earth system models

We briefly review current knowledge and pinpoint some of the major areas of uncertainty for the following fundamental processes: (1) convection, condensation nuclei, and cloud formation; (2) oceanic circulation and its coupling to the atmosphere and cryosphere; (3) land surface hydrology and hydrology-vegetation coupling; (4) biogeochemistry of greenhouse gases; and (5) upper atmospheric chemistry and circulation.

Prinn, Ronald G.↗

Supporting Hazard Analysis for Wildfire Response Using fmdtools and MIKA

The System Wide Safety (SWS) Safety Demonstrator (SD) Series drives development of an increasingly capable In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) focusing on humanitarian applications, starting with wildfire response (SD-1). The goals of this report are to (1) provide an early hazard analysis and mitigation evaluation of wildfire response to support these efforts and (2) provide a demonstration of capabilities of the Fault Model Design Tools (fmdtools) and Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) tools. fmdtools provides a modeling, simulation, and resiliency analysis framework in which a wildfire response model, the System Modeling and Analysis of Resiliency in Scalable Traffic Management for Emergency Response Operations (SMARt-STEReO), is built. MIKA is an intelligent knowledge manager with several capabilities, including assisting in hazard analysis by extracting and analyzing hazards from historical incident reports. The following topics are covered in the report: Understanding Wildfire Hazard Dynamics. We provide a description and simulated examples of how hazards occur in the SMARt-STEReO model of wildfire response and their effect on its outcome. This provides a common mental model and focuses the analysis presented in the remainder of the report. Wildfire Hazard Identification. MIKA identifies wildfire hazards from three relevant datasets: the ICS-209-PLUS, SAFECOM, and SAFENET. Hazards are manually organized into a taxonomy and MIKA analyzes each hazard’s effects, likelihood, severity, and risk. Evaluating Mitigation Strategies. The SMARt-STEReO wildfire response model built in fmdtools evaluates a subset of identified hazards. Specifically, we simulate the effect of communications faults and equipment faults on operator safety, the effect of changing winds and flammability, and a scenario with multiple ignition points and heavy smoke. Tool Limitations and Usage Considerations. We provide a discussion of appropriate tool use cases as well as limitations and considerations for usage. The tool findings are used to synthesize recommendations for wildfire response operations, which can be captured as part of an IASMS. Key recommendations are as follows: Hazards are identified from a broad spectrum of sources including aircraft subsystems, operational sources, and ground crew operations. Highest risk operational environment hazards identified are Evacuations. The highest risk manned aerial operations hazard categorized is Jumper Operations Mishap. Ground crew hazards that are highest risk are Burns, Cargo Operations Overhead, Dehydration, Entrapment, Falling Objects, Heart Attacks, Heat Exhaustion, Inadequate Training or Certification, Vehicle Breakdown, and Vehicle Collision. Modelled containment failures arise from a mismatch between the difficulty of the firefighting scenario and the capacity (e.g., speed, effectiveness, awareness) of the response. In firefighting scenarios where containment is possible (e.g., because the fire does not spread too quickly), these mismatches can occur because of a change in environmental conditions (e.g., wind, flammability, etc) or because of planning, equipment, or communications faults. Improvements to communications increase the capacity of the firefighting response by reducing the time needed to respond to the fire. While surveillance does not increase this capacity by itself, it increases operator safety by increasing state awareness, enabling firefighters to evade approaching fires. Increasing both has a synergistic effect. In general, these performance and resilience increases generalize over fault scenarios as well as unforeseen changes to circumstances (i.e., wind, aridity, etc.). However, these improvements need to be designed so as not to make the system prone to persistent large-scale communications outages, which can reduce performance.

Hazard analysis↗

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aqueous Alteration of Basalts: Earth, Moon, and Mars

The geologic processes responsible for aqueous alteration of basaltic materials on Mars are modeled beginning with our knowledge of analog processes on Earth, i.e., characterization of elemental and mineralogical compositions of terrestrial environments where the alteration and weathering pathways related to aqueous activity are better understood. A key ingredient to successful modeling of aqueous processes on Mars is identification of phases that have formed by those processes. The purpose of this paper is to describe what is known about the elemental and mineralogical composition of aqueous alteration products of basaltic materials on Mars and their implications for specific aqueous environments based upon our knowledge of terrestrial systems. Although aqueous alteration has not occurred on the Moon, it is crucial to understand the behaviors of basaltic materials exposed to aqueous environments in support of human exploration to the Moon over the next two decades. Several methods or indices have been used to evaluate the extent of basalt alteration/weathering based upon measurements made at Mars by the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Moessbauer and Alpha Particle X-Ray Spectrometers. The Mineralogical Alteration Index (MAI) is based upon the percentage of total Fe (Fe(sub T)) present as Fe(3+) in alteration products (Morris et al., 2006). A second method is the evaluation of compositional trends to determine the extent to which elements have been removed from the host rock and the likely formation of secondary phases (Nesbitt and Young, 1992; Ming et al., 2007). Most of the basalts that have been altered by aqueous processes at the two MER landing sites in Gusev crater and on Meridiani Planum have not undergone extensive leaching in an open hydrolytic system with the exception of an outcrop in the Columbia Hills. The extent of aqueous alteration however ranges from relatively unaltered to pervasively altered materials. Several experimental studies have focused upon the aqueous alteration of lunar materials and simulants (e.g., Keller and Huang, 1971; Eick et al., 1996). Lunar basalts are void of water and highly reduced, hence, these materials are initially very reactive when exposed to water under oxidizing conditions.

Ming, Douglas W.↗

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗

The Dangers of Parametrics

Building a parametric cost model is hard work. The data is noisy and often does not behave like we want it to. We need statistics to give us an indication of the goodness of our models, but; statistics can be manipulated and mislead. On top of all of that, our own very human biases can lead us astray; causing us to see patterns in the noise and draw false conclusions from the data. Yet, it is the data itself that is the foundation for making better cost estimates and cost models. I believe the mistake we often make is we believe that our models are representative of the data; that our models summarize the experiences, the knowledge, and the stories contained in the data. However, it is the opposite that is true. Our models are but imitations of reality. They give us trends, but not truth. The experiences, the knowledge, and the stories that we need in order to make good cost estimates is bound up in the data. You cannot separate good cost estimating from a knowledge of the historical data. One final thought. It is our attempts to make sense out of the randomness that leads us astray. In order to make progress as cost modelers and cost estimators, we must accept that there are real limitations on our ability to model the past and predict the future. I do not believe we should throw up our hands and say this is the best we can do. Rather, to see real improvement we must first recognize these limitations, avoid the easy but misleading solutions, and seek to find ways to better model the world we live in. I don't have any simple solutions. Perhaps the answers lie in better data or in a totally different approach to simulating how the world works. All I know is that we must do our best to speak truth to ourselves and our customers. Misleading ourselves and our customers will, in the end, result in an inability to have a positive impact on those we serve.

Prince, Frank A.↗

Analysis of earth albedo effect on sun sensor measurements based on theoretical model and mission experience

Analysis of flight data from previous missions indicates that anomalous Sun sensor readings could be caused by Earth albedo interference. A previous Sun sensor study presented a detailed mathematical model of this effect. The model can be used to study the effect of both diffusive and specular reflections and to improve Sun angle determination based on perturbed Sun sensor measurements, satellite position, and an approximate knowledge of attitude. The model predicts that diffuse reflected light can cause errors of up to 10 degrees in Coarse Sun Sensor (CSS) measurements and 5 to 10 arc sec in Fine Sun Sensor (FSS) measurements, depending on spacecraft orbit and attitude. The accuracy of these sensors is affected as long as part of the illuminated Earth surface is present in the sensor field of view. Digital Sun Sensors (DSS) respond in a different manner to the Earth albedo interference. Most of the time DSS measurements are not affected, but for brief periods of time the Earth albedo can cause errors which are a multiple of the sensor least significant bit and may exceed one degree. This paper compares model predictions with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) CSS measurements in order to validate and refine the model. Methods of reducing and mitigating the impact of Earth albedo are discussed. ne CSS sensor errors are roughly proportional to the Earth albedo coefficient. Photocells that are sensitive only to ultraviolet emissions would reduce the effective Earth albedo by up to a thousand times, virtually eliminating all errors caused by Earth albedo interference.

Brasoveanu, Dan↗

Knowledge-based Autonomous Test Engineer (KATE)

Mathematical models of system components have long been used to allow simulators to predict system behavior to various stimuli. Recent efforts to monitor, diagnose, and control real-time systems using component models have experienced similar success. NASA Kennedy is continuing the development of a tool for implementing real-time knowledge-based diagnostic and control systems called KATE (Knowledge based Autonomous Test Engineer). KATE is a model-based reasoning shell designed to provide autonomous control, monitoring, fault detection, and diagnostics for complex engineering systems by applying its reasoning techniques to an exchangeable quantitative model describing the structure and function of the various system components and their systemic behavior.

Parrish, Carrie L.↗

Use of metaknowledge in the verification of knowledge-based systems

Knowledge-based systems are modeled as deductive systems. The model indicates that the two primary areas of concern in verification are demonstrating consistency and completeness. A system is inconsistent if it asserts something that is not true of the modeled domain. A system is incomplete if it lacks deductive capability. Two forms of consistency are discussed along with appropriate verification methods. Three forms of incompleteness are discussed. The use of metaknowledge, knowledge about knowledge, is explored in connection to each form of incompleteness.

Morell, Larry J.↗

Realtime Knowledge Management (RKM): From an International Space Station (ISS) Point of View

We are developing automated methods to provide realtime access to spacecraft domain knowledge relevant a spacecraft's current operational state. The method is based upon analyzing state-transition signatures in the telemetry stream. A key insight is that documentation relevant to a specific failure mode or operational state is related to the structure and function of spacecraft systems. This means that diagnostic dependency and state models can provide a roadmap for effective documentation navigation and presentation. Diagnostic models consume the telemetry and derive a high-level state description of the spacecraft. Each potential spacecraft state description is matched against the predictions of models that were developed from information found in the pages and sections in the relevant International Space Station (ISS) documentation and reference materials. By annotating each model fragment with the domain knowledge sources from which it was derived we can develop a system that automatically selects those documents representing the domain knowledge encapsulated by the models that compute the current spacecraft state. In this manner, when the spacecraft state changes, the relevant documentation context and presentation will also change.

Robinson, Peter I.↗