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NASA NTRS2012

P69 Using the NASA-Unified WRF to Assess the Impacts of Real-Time Vegetation on Simulations of Severe Weather

Since June 2010, the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT; Goodman et al. 2004; Darden et al. 2010; Stano et al. 2012; Fuell et al. 2012) Center has been generating a real-time Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and corresponding Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite based on reflectances from NASA s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument. This dataset is generated at 0.01 resolution across the Continental United States (CONUS), and updated daily. The goal of producing such a vegetation dataset is to improve over the default climatological GVF dataset in land surface and numerical weather prediction models, in order to have better simulations of heat and moisture exchange between the land surface and the planetary boundary layer. Details on the SPoRT/MODIS vegetation composite algorithm are presented in Case et al. (2011). Vegetation indices such as GVF and Leaf Area Index (LAI) are used by land surface models (LSMs) to represent the horizontal and vertical density of plant vegetation (Gutman and Ignatov 1998), in order to calculate transpiration, interception and radiative shading. Both of these indices are related to the NDVI; however, there is an inherent ambiguity in determining GVF and LAI simultaneously from NDVI, as described in Gutman and Ignatov (1998). One practice is to specify the LAI while allowing the GVF to vary both spatially and temporally, as is done in the Noah LSM (Chen and Dudhia 2001; Ek et al. 2003). Operational versions of Noah within several of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global and regional modeling systems hold the LAI fixed, while the GVF varies according to a global monthly climatology. This GVF climatology was derived from NDVI data on the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) polar orbiting satellite, using information from 1985 to 1991 (Gutman and Ignatov 1998; Jiang et al. 2010). Representing data at the mid-point of every month, the climatological dataset is on a grid with 0.144 (~16 km) spatial resolution and is distributed with the community WRF model (Ek et al. 2003; Jiang et al. 2010; Skamarock et al. 2008).

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Correction to "Influence of Dust and Black Carbon on the Snow Albedo in the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 Land Surface Model"

The website information describing the forcing meteorological data used for the land surface model (LSM) simulation, which were observed at an Automated Meteorological Station CAWS) at the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), was missing from the text. The 1-hourly data were obtained from the website of Kisyoutoukeijouhou (Information for available JMA-observed meteorological data in the past) on the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jpijmaimenulreport.html). The measurement height information of 59.5 m for the anemometer at the Sapporo Observatory was also obtained from the website of JMA (in Japanese) (available at: http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/menu/report.html). In addition, the converted 10-m wind speed, based on the AWS/JMA data, was further converted to a 2-m wind speed prior to its use with the land model as a usual treatment of off-line Catchment simulation. Please ignore the ice absorption data on the website mentioned in paragraph [15] which was not used for our calculations (but the data on the website was mostly the same as the estimated ice absorption coefficients by the following method because they partially used the same data by Warren [1984]). We calculated the ice absorption coefficients with the method mentioned in the same paragraph, for which some of the refractive index data by Warren [1984] were used and then interpolated between wavelengths, and also mentioned in paragraph [20] for the visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) ranges. The optical data we used were interpolated between wavelengths as necessary.

Yasunari, Teppei J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrievals in the Land Information System

Soil moisture is a crucial variable for weather prediction because of its influence on evaporation. It is of critical importance for drought and flood monitoring and prediction and for public health applications. The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT) has implemented a new module in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) to assimilate observations from the ESA's Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. SMOS Level 2 retrievals from the Microwave Imaging Radiometer using Aperture Synthesis (MIRAS) instrument are assimilated into the Noah LSM within LIS via an Ensemble Kalman Filter. The retrievals have a target volumetric accuracy of 4% at a resolution of 35-50 km. Parallel runs with and without SMOS assimilation are performed with precipitation forcing from intentionally degraded observations, and then validated against a model run using the best available precipitation data, as well as against selected station observations. The goal is to demonstrate how SMOS data assimilation can improve modeled soil states in the absence of dense rain gauge and radar networks.

Blankenship, Clay↗

NASA NTRS2014

Assimilation of SMOS Soil Moisture Retrievals in the Land Information System

Blakenship, Clay↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA SPoRT Modeling and Data Assimilation Research and Transition Activities Using WRF, LIS and GSI

weather research and forecasting ===== The NASA Short‐term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) program has numerous modeling and data assimilation (DA) activities in which the WRF model is a key component. SPoRT generates realtime, research satellite products from the MODIS and VIIRS instruments, making the data available to NOAA/NWS partners running the WRF/EMS, including: (1) 2‐km northwestern‐hemispheric SST composite, (2) daily, MODIS green vegetation fraction (GVF) over CONUS, and (3) NASA Land Information System (LIS) runs of the Noah LSM over the southeastern CONUS. Each of these datasets have been utilized by specific SPoRT partners in local EMS model runs, with select offices evaluating the impacts using a set of automated scripts developed by SPoRT that manage data acquisition and run the NCAR Model Evaluation Tools verification package. SPoRT is engaged in DA research with the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) and Ensemble Kalman Filter in LIS for soil moisture DA. Ongoing DA projects using GSI include comparing the impacts of assimilating Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances versus retrieved profiles, and an analysis of extra‐tropical cyclones with intense non‐convective winds. As part of its Early Adopter activities for the NASA Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) mission, SPoRT is conducting bias correction and soil moisture DA within LIS to improve simulations using the NASA Unified‐WRF (NU‐WRF) for both the European Space Agency's Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity and upcoming SMAP mission data. SPoRT has also incorporated real‐time global GVF data into LIS and WRF from the VIIRS product being developed by NOAA/NESDIS. This poster will highlight the research and transition activities SPoRT conducts using WRF, NU‐WRF, EMS, LIS, and GSI.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

As temperatures increase, the onset and severity of droughts is likely to become more intense. Improved tools for understanding, monitoring and predicting droughts will be a key component of 21st century climate adaption. The best drought monitoring systems will bring together accurate precipitation estimates with skillful climate and weather forecasts. Such systems combine the predictive power inherent in the current land surface state with the predictive power inherent in low frequency ocean-atmosphere dynamics. To this end, researchers at the Climate Hazards Group (CHG), in collaboration with partners at the USGS and NASA, have developed i) a long (1981-present) quasi-global (50degS-50degN, 180degW-180degE) high resolution (0.05deg) homogenous precipitation data set designed specifically for drought monitoring, ii) tools for understanding and predicting East African boreal spring droughts, and iii) an integrated land surface modeling (LSM) system that combines rainfall observations and predictions to provide effective drought early warning. This talk briefly describes these three components. Component 1: CHIRPS The Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), blends station data with geostationary satellite observations to provide global near real time daily, pentadal and monthly precipitation estimates. We describe the CHIRPS algorithm and compare CHIRPS and other estimates to validation data. The CHIRPS is shown to have high correlation, low systematic errors (bias) and low mean absolute errors. Component 2: Hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies East African droughts have increased in frequency, but become more predictable as Indo- Pacific SST gradients and Walker circulation disruptions intensify. We describe hybrid statistical-dynamic forecast strategies that are far superior to the raw output of coupled forecast models. These forecasts can be translated into probabilities that can be used to generate bootstrapped ensembles describing future climate conditions. Component 3: Assimilation using LSMs CHIRPS rainfall observations (component 1) and bootstrapped forecast ensembles (component 2) can be combined using LSMs to predict soil moisture deficits. We evaluate the skill such a system in East Africa, and demonstrate results for 2013.

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2015

Improved Rainfall Estimates and Predictions for 21st Century Drought Early Warning

Funk, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2017

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗

NASA NTRS2017

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget from a Multi-Model Perspective

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based meteorological datasets from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications datasets (i.e., MERRA-Land and MERRA-2) and three observation-based precipitation datasets, generating a total of 16 experiments. Modeled evapotranspiration (ET), streamflow, and terrestrial water storage estimates were evaluated against the Atmosphere-Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) ET, in-situ streamflow observations, and NASA Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) products, respectively. Results show that CLSMF2.5 provided better representation of the water budget variables than Noah3.3 in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient when considering all meteorological forcing datasets and precipitation datasets. The model experiments forced with observation-based products, the Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), outperform those run with MERRA-Land and MERRA-2 precipitation. The results presented in this paper would suggest that the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System incorporate CLSMF2.5 and HyMAP routing scheme to better represent the water balance in this region.

Rainfall↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilated Hydrological Data at NASA GES DISC with Examples of Extreme Events

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heavy rainfall, heatwave, floods and droughts, and strong wind, can have devastating impacts on society. NASA and NOAA, based on independent analyses, recently announced that global surface temperatures in 2018 are the fourth warmest since 1880, behind only those of 2016, 2017, and 2015 (nasa.gov). Also in 2018, the United States experienced 14 billion-dollar disasters, ranking as the fourth highest total number of such events, behind only the years 2017, 2011, and 2016 (climate.gov). Many research studies have focused on acquiring observational and modeling data, to reveal linkages between increasing extreme events, global water and energy cycle, and global climate change. However, draw conclusions is still a challenge. NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center is one of twelve NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) data centers that process, archive, document, and distribute data from Earth science missions and related projects. The GES DISC hosts a wide range of remotely-sensed and model data and provides reliable and robust data access and services to users worldwide. This presentation provides a few examples of extreme event study that use Land Surface Model (LSM) assimilated, quality-controlled, and spatially and temporally consistent, hydrological data from the GES DISC. Also provided is a summary table for the hydrological data holdings, along with discussions of recent updates to data and data services.

Rui, Hualan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Developing a Hydrological Monitoring and Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal Forecasting System for South and Southeast Asian River Basins

South and Southeast Asia is subject to significant hydrometeorological extremes, including drought. Under rising temperatures, growing populations, and an apparent weakening of the South Asian monsoon in recent decades, concerns regarding drought and its potential impacts on water and food security are on the rise. Reliable sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) hydrological forecasts could, in principle, help governments and international organizations to better assess risk and act in the face of an oncoming drought. Here, we leverage recent improvements in S2S meteorological forecasts and the growing power of Earth Observations to provide more accurate monitoring of hydrological states for forecast initialization. Information from both sources is merged in a South and Southeast Asia sub-seasonal to seasonal hydrological forecasting system (SAHFS-S2S), developed collaboratively with the NASA SERVIR program and end-users across the region. This system applies the Noah-MultiParameterization (NoahMP) Land Surface Model (LSM) in the NASA Land Information System (LIS), driven by downscaled meteorological fields from the Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) and Climate Hazards InfraRed Precipitation products (CHIRP and CHIRPS) to optimize initial conditions. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model - sub-seasonal to seasonal (GEOS-S2S) forecasts, downscaled using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Analog Regression Downscaling (GARD) tool and quantile mapping, are then applied to drive 5-km resolution hydrological forecasts to a 9-month forecast time horizon. Results show that the skillful predictions of root zone soil moisture can be made one to two months in advance for forecasts initialized in rainy seasons and up to 8 months when initialized in dry seasons. The memory of accurate initial conditions can positively contribute to forecast skills throughout the entire 9-month prediction period in areas with limited precipitation. This SAHFS-S2S has been operationalized at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) to support drought monitoring and warning needs in the region.

Yifan Zhou↗

NASA NTRS2021

Impacts of Fully Coupling Land Surface and Flood Models on the Simulation of Large Wetlands’ Water Dynamics: The Case of the Inner Niger Delta

It is known that representing wetland dynamics in land surface modeling improves models ‘capacity to reproduce fluxes and land surface boundary conditions for atmospheric modeling in general circulation models. This study presents the development of the full coupling between the Noah-MP land surface model (LSM) and the HyMAP flood model in the NASA Land Information System and its application over the Inner Niger Delta (IND), a well-known hot-spot of strong land surface-atmosphere interactions in West Africa. Here, we define two experiments at 0.02o spatial resolution over 2002-2018 to quantify the impacts of the proposed developments on simulating IND dynamics. One represents the one-way approach for simulating land surface and flooding processes (1-WAY), i.e., Noah-MP neglects surface water availability, and the proposed two-way coupling (2-WAY), where Noah-MP takes surface water availability into account in the vertical water and energy balance. Results show that accounting for two-way interactions between Noah- MP and HyMAP over IND improves simulations of all selected hydrological variables. Compared to 1-WAY, evapotranspiration derived from 2-WAY over flooding zones doubles, increased by 0.8mm/day, resulting in an additional water loss rate of ~18,900km(exp 3)/year, ~40% drop of wetland extent during wet seasons and major improvement in simulated water level variability at multiple locations. Significant soil moisture increase and surface temperature drop were also observed. Wetland outflows decreased by 35%, resulting in a substantial a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient improvement, from -0.73 to 0.79. It is anticipated that future developments in water monitoring and water-related disaster warning systems will considerably benefit from these findings.

Augusto Getirana↗

NASA NTRS2021

Understanding the Impacts of Land Surface and PBL Observations on the Terrestrial and Atmospheric Legs of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

Accurately representing land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions and coupling in NWP systems remains a challenge. New observations, incorporated into models via assimilation or calibration, hold the promise of improved forecast skill, but erroneous model coupling can hinder the benefits of such activities. To better understand model representation of coupled interactions and feedbacks, this study demonstrates a novel framework for coupled calibration of the Single Column Model (SCM) capability of the NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) system coupled to NASA’s Land Information System (LIS). The local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) process chain paradigm is used to assess the processes and connections revealed by calibration experiments. Two summer case studies in the U. S. Southern Great Plains are simulated in which LSM parameters are calibrated to diurnal observations of LoCo process chain components including 2-meter temperature, 2-meter humidity, surface fluxes (Bowen ratio), and PBL height. Results show a wide range of soil moisture and hydraulic parameter solutions depending on which L-A variable (i.e. observation) is used for calibration, highlighting that improvement in either SHP or ISM when not in tandem with the other can provide undesirable results. Overall, this work demonstrates that a process chain calibration approach can be used to assess L-A connections, feedbacks, strengths, and deficiencies in coupled models, as well as quantify the potential impact of new sources of observations of land-PBL variables on coupled prediction.

Patricia Lawston-Parker↗

NASA NTRS2022

Tropical peatland hydrology simulated with a global land surface model

Tropical peatlands are among the most carbon-dense ecosystems on Earth, and their water storage dynamics strongly control these carbon stocks. The hydrological functioning of tropical peatlands differs from that of northern peatlands, which has not yet been accounted for in global land surface models (LSMs). Here, we integrated tropical peat-specific hydrology modules into a global LSM for the first time, by utilizing the peatland-specific model structure adaptation (PEATCLSM) of the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM). We developed literature-based parameter sets for natural (PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat)) and drained (PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain)) tropical peatlands. Simulations with PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) were compared against those with the default CLSM version and the northern version of PEATCLSM (PEATCLSM(North,Nat)) with tropical vegetation input. All simulations were forced with global meteorological reanalysis input data for the major tropical peatland regions in Central and South America, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia. The evaluation against a unique and extensive data set of in situ water level and eddy covariance-derived evapotranspiration showed an overall improvement in bias and correlation compared to the default CLSM version. Over Southeast Asia, an additional simulation with PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain) was run to address the large fraction of drained tropical peatlands in this region. PEATCLSM(Trop,Drain) outperformed CLSM, PEATCLSM(North,Nat) and PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) over drained sites. Despite the overall improvements of PEATCLSM(Trop,Nat) over CLSM, there are strong differences in performance between the three study regions. We attribute these performance differences to regional differences in accuracy of meteorological forcing data, and differences in peatland hydrologic response that are not yet captured by our model.

Peatland↗

NASA NTRS2022

Development of a “Nature Run” for Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) for Snow Mission Development

Snow is a fundamental component of global and regional water budgets, particularly in mountainous areas and regions downstream that rely on snowmelt for water resources. Land surface models (LSMs) are commonly used to develop spatially distributed estimates of snow water equivalent (SWE) and runoff. However, LSMs are limited by uncertainties in model physics and parameters, among other factors. In this study, we describe the use of model calibration tools to improve snow simulations within the Noah-MP LSM as the first step in an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). Noah-MP is calibrated against the University of Arizona (UA) SWE product over a western Colorado domain. With spatially varying calibrated parameters, we run calibrated and default Noah-MP simulations for water years 2010–20. By evaluating both simulations against the UA dataset, we show that calibration decreases domain averaged temporal RMSE and bias for snow depth from 0.15 to 0.13 m and from −0.036 to −0.0023 m, respectively, and improves the timing of snow ablation. Increased snow simulation performance also improves estimates of model-simulated runoff in four of six study basins, though only one has statistically significant improvement. Spatially distributed Noah-MP snow parameters perform better than default uniform values. We demonstrate that calibrating variables related to snow albedo calculations and rain–snow partitioning, among other processes, is a necessary step for creating a nature run that reasonably approximates true snow conditions for the OSSEs. Additionally, the inclusion of a snowfall scaling term can address biases in precipitation from meteorological forcing datasets, further improving the utility of LSMs for generating reliable spatiotemporal estimates of snow.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Least Squares Reverse Time Migration (LSRTM) for Damage Imaging in Composite Laminates

A method for adapting least squares reverse time migration (LSRTM) for ultrasonic guided wave imaging of composite laminates is proposed in this paper. As composites become more widely used in fields such as the aerospace industry, the need for high-resolution imaging in structural health monitoring (SHM) and nondestructive evaluation (NDE) is also growing. For instance, delamination is a common problem in composite laminates, which has led to a certain degree of apprehension in the use of composite materials for load-bearing structures. Although the solver-based imaging techniques using conventional reverse time migration (RTM) methods illuminate damage with a wide range of damage-scattering effects, the resulting images do not fully define the damage regions due to the limited data acquisition aperture, sensor density, frequencies/wavelengths, and incompleteness of adjoint reconstruction. Previously, the LSRTM theory was derived by incorporating a least squares migration (LSM) algorithm into RTM, and benchmarked its high-resolution damage imaging performance for isotropic plates. To improve damage imaging in composite laminates, a process to create an ultrasonic guided wave-based LSRTM method for anisotropic materials is proposed in this paper. The derivation of the forward modeling operator and the adjoint operator is presented. Numerical case studies were conducted to show the improvement of LSRTM over RTM in mapping damage in composite plates. Multiple damage sites or damage with a complex shape were created in the numerical studies based on 1) Born approximation-based modeling or 2) reduction of the plate stiffness-based modeling. LSRTM begins by using a forward modeling process. The forward modeling accuracy for the flexural wave solver used in this study for LSRTM was also compared with the results from a three-dimensional rotated staggered grid (RSG) elastodynamic finite difference solver, previously open-sourced by NASA Langley Research Center. These benchmarking studies have shown that the LSRTM method is more effective in reducing artifacts, improving resolution, and enhancing damage model reconstruction compared to RTM in composite laminates.

Jiaze He↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA SPoRT-Land Information System and Vegetation Stress Real-Time Products for Drought, Wildfire, and Pluvial Analysis

The NASA SPoRT Center has been producing a near real-time instance of the NASA Land Information System over a CONUS domain (hereafter “SPoRT-LIS”) since ~2015. The SPoRT-LIS runs the legacy Noah LSM in an observations-constrained manner, with outputs of soil moisture and temperature at layered depths along with surface energy fluxes. The unique configuration of SPoRT-LIS enables decision-making on operational timescales since it incorporates near real-time observations such as VIIRS Green Vegetation Fraction and MRMS QPE. An additional in-house Alaska-LIS is produced in real time to help inform end-users on spring snow melt and summer soil moisture trends during the wildfire season. Use of the SPoRT-LIS has gradually expanded in recent years as a component of drought analysis, feedback to the USDM, and is utilized by State Climate Offices. Operational feedback has led to increased applicability for analyses by other end-users in the drought community. This presentation will provide SPoRT-LIS applications for drought, pluvial, and fire weather case-studies. We will also present preliminary results of 2-week SPoRT-LIS forecast percentiles that were recently implemented using GFS model forecast fields. We will additionally discuss the pathway toward extending these forecasts into the future by incorporating ensemble forecasts for probabilistic guidance on soil moisture trends for potential flash drought and subseasonal outlooks.

Soil Moisture↗

NASA NTRS2022

Interactive Biogenic Emissions and Drought Stress Effects on Atmospheric Composition in NASA GISS ModelE

Drought is a hydroclimatic extreme that causes perturbations to the terrestrial biosphere and acts as a stressor on vegetation, affecting emissions patterns. During severe drought, isoprene emissions are reduced. In this paper, we focus on capturing this reduction signal by implementing a new percentile isoprene drought stress (y d ) algorithm in NASA GISS ModelE based on the MEGAN3 (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature Version 3) approach as a function of a photosynthetic parameter (V c,max ) and water stress (β). Four global transient simulations from 2003–2013 are used to demonstrate the effect without y d (Default_ModelE) and with online y d (DroughtStress_ModelE). DroughtStress_ModelE is evaluated against the observed isoprene measurements at the Missouri Ozarks AmeriFlux (MOFLUX) site during the 2012 severe drought where improvements in the correlation coefficient indicate it is a suitable drought stress parameterization to capture the reduction signal during severe drought. The application of y d globally leads to a decadal average reduction of ∼ 2.7 %, which is equivalent to ∼14.6 Tg yr -1 of isoprene. The changes have larger impacts in regions such as the southeastern US. DroughtStress_ModelE is validated using the satellite ΩHCHO column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and surface O 3 observations across regions of the US to examine the effect of drought on atmospheric composition. It was found that the inclusion of isoprene drought stress reduced the overestimation of ΩHCHO in Default_ModelE during the 2007 and 2011 southeastern US droughts and led to improvements in simulated O 3 during drought periods. We conclude that isoprene drought stress should be tuned on a model-by-model basis because the variables used in the parameterization responses are relative to the land surface model hydrology scheme (LSM) and the effects of y d application could be larger than seen here due to ModelE not having large biases of isoprene during severe drought.

drought stress effects↗