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DOE OSTI2023

Uncertain of uncertainties? A comparison of uncertainty quantification metrics for chemical data sets

Abstract With the increasingly more important role of machine learning (ML) models in chemical research, the need for putting a level of confidence to the model predictions naturally arises. Several methods for obtaining uncertainty estimates have been proposed in recent years but consensus on the evaluation of these have yet to be established and different studies on uncertainties generally uses different metrics to evaluate them. We compare three of the most popular validation metrics (Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient, the negative log likelihood (NLL) and the miscalibration area) to the error-based calibration introduced by Levi et al. ( Sensors 2022 , 22 , 5540). Importantly, metrics such as the negative log likelihood (NLL) and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient bear little information in themselves. We therefore introduce reference values obtained through errors simulated directly from the uncertainty distribution. The different metrics target different properties and we show how to interpret them, but we generally find the best overall validation to be done based on the error-based calibration plot introduced by Levi et al. Finally, we illustrate the sensitivity of ranking-based methods (e.g. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient) towards test set design by using the same toy model ferent test sets and obtaining vastly different metrics (0.05 vs. 0.65).

Rasmussen, Maria H.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Production Application Performance Data Streaming for System Monitoring

In this article, we present an approach to streaming collection of application performance data. Practical application performance tuning and troubleshooting in production high-performance computing (HPC) environments requires an understanding of how applications interact with the platform, including (but not limited to) parallel programming libraries such as Message Passing Interface (MPI). Several profiling and tracing tools exist that collect heavy runtime data traces either in memory (released only at application exit) or on a file system (imposing an I/O load that may interfere with the performance being measured). Although these approaches are beneficial in development stages and post-run analysis, a systemwide and low-overhead method is required to monitor deployed applications continuously. This method must be able to collect information at both the application and system levels to yield a complete performance picture. In our approach, an application profiler collects application event counters. A sampler uses an efficient inter-process communication method to periodically extract the application counters and stream them into an infrastructure for performance data collection. We implement a tool-set based on our approach and integrate it with the Lightweight Distributed Metric Service (LDMS) system, a monitoring system used on large-scale computational platforms. LDMS provides the infrastructure to create and gather streams of performance data in a low overhead manner. We demonstrate our approach using applications implemented with MPI, as it is one of the most common standards for the development of large-scale scientific applications. We utilize our tool-set to study the impact of our approach on an open source HPC application, Nalu. Our tool-set enables us to efficiently identify patterns in the behavior of the application without source-level knowledge. We leverage LDMS to collect system-level performance data and explore the correlation between the system and application events. Finally, we demonstrate how our tool-set can help detect anomalies with a low latency. We run tests on two different architectures: a system enabled with Intel Xeon Phi and another system equipped with Intel Xeon processor. Our overhead study shows our method imposes at most 0.5% CPU usage overhead on the application in realistic deployment scenarios.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Flat and Level Analysis Tool (FLAT) for real-time automated segmentation and analysis of concrete slab point clouds

In the United States, the flatness and levelness of concrete floors during construction is traditionally specified by a maximum allowable gap under a 3 meter straightedge. However, the straightedge method is inexact and rarely representative of the entire floor since the technician is free to choose any location on the floor to perform the measurement. In cases requiring a higher degree of precision and repeatability, concrete floor flatness and levelness can be measured using the standard test method ASTM E1155. With the recent introduction of advanced surveying instruments such as robotic theodolites and terrestrial laser scanners (TLS), the means now exist to modernize and expedite the measurement of floor flatness and levelness. This paper details the development and demonstration of a digital tool, named the Flat and Level Analysis Tool (FLAT), to automate and expedite the segmentation and analysis of flatness and levelness from dense point cloud data of concrete floor slabs. Segmentation algorithms were developed using unsupervised machine learning to extract the set of points belonging to the concrete floor slab from a full 360 scan of a construction site. After segmentation, automated analysis algorithms report the results according to the standard method. The developed algorithms were demonstrated on a dense point cloud captured from a concrete slab-on-grade at a construction site. Results show that the digital tool can quickly provide estimates for floor flatness and levelness with minimal human involvement with comparable accuracy to manual methods.

Hayes, Nolan↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Data Interpretation through Identification of Time Series Periodicity Changes

Analysis and interpretation of time series data is easiest when the data values occur at uniform intervals in time, but actual data may have differing data sampling frequencies, such as monthly and daily readings. Applying data analysis techniques, such as smoothing, to such a data set may not give a representative result between time segments. The ability to automatically distinguish time segments of differing data frequency would provide a means for applying data analysis independently to each segment, though a suitable blending at segment boundaries would be required. A method for detecting frequency changes was developed and applied to Gaussian and median smoothing of hydraulic head data from groundwater wells at the U.S. Department of Energy Hanford Site in southeastern Washington state. The process identifies time segments of high-frequency (daily) or low-frequency (greater than daily) data using adjusted-bandwidth Gaussian kernel density estimation and a threshold value, which are further refined to address small blocks of low-frequency data within larger blocks of high-frequency data. User-selectable levels of smoothing are then applied independently to the time segments prior to combining the segment results for a single smoothed data set. This time segment identification approach provides effective low- and high-frequency data separation, which provides a method to apply data analysis independently to each time segment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1993

On predicting contamination levels of HALOE optics aboard UARS using direct simulation Monte Carlo

A three-dimensional version of the direct simulation Monte Carlo method is adapted to assess the contamination environment surrounding a highly detailed model of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Emphasis is placed on simulating a realistic, worst-case set of flowfield and surface conditions and geometric orientations in order to estimate an upper limit for the cumulative level of volatile organic molecular deposits at the aperture of the Halogen Occultation Experiment. Problems resolving species outgassing and vent flux rates that varied over many orders of magnitude were handled using species weighting factors. Results relating to contaminant cloud structure, cloud composition, and statistics of simulated molecules impinging on the target surface are presented, along with data related to code performance. Using procedures developed in standard contamination analyses, the cumulative level of volatile organic deposits on HALOE's aperture over the instrument's 35-month nominal data collection period is estimated to be about 2700A.

Woronowicz, Michael S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2017

The Failure of Correlation to Describe Out-of-Plane Carbon=Carbon Bending

Carbon-carbon multiply bonded systems are improperly described with standard correlation methods and basis sets. For computations of vibrational modes, the out-of- plane bends can be reported as imaginary at worst or simply too low at best. Utilizing the simplest of aromatic structures (cyclopropenylidene) and various levels of theory, this work diagnoses this known behavior for the first time. A combined 1-particle and n-particle basis set effect conspire to produce these non-physical results. When moving from sp2 to sp3 hybridization in the carbon atoms, the larger number of basis functions overcorrects the energy. This is exacerbated by correlation methods. These allow for occupation of the π and π∗ orbitals in the expanded wave function that combine with the hydrogen s orbitals. As a result, the improperly described space can be further and non-physically stabilized by post-Hartree-Fock correlation. This represents a fundamental problem with at least Hartree-Fock based methods of all flavors in describing carbon. Beyond being a flaw in quantum chemical theory, other repercussions will be present in computations regarding spectroscopy as well as energy and environmental studies where highly-accurate hydrocabon vibrational transitions or thermochemical data are needed.

Fortenberry, Ryan C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tapping the treasure trove of atypical phages

With advancements in genomics technologies, a vast diversity of ‘atypical’ phages, that is, with single-stranded DNA or RNA genomes, are being uncovered from different ecosystems. Though these efforts have revealed the existence and prevalence of these nonmodel phages, computational approaches often fail to associate these phages with their specific bacterial host(s), while the lack of methods to isolate these phages has limited our ability to characterize infectivity pathways and new gene function. In this review, we call for the development of generalizable experimental methods to better capture this understudied viral diversity via isolation and study them through gene-level characterization and engineering. Establishing a diverse set of new ‘atypical’ phage model systems has the potential to provide many new biotechnologies, including potential uses of these atypical phages in halting the spread of antibiotic resistance and engineering of microbial communities for beneficial outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

SHαDE: survey description and mass–kinematics scaling relations for dwarf galaxies

ABSTRACT The Study of H α from Dwarf Emissions (SHαDE) is a high spectral resolution (R = 13 500) H α integral field survey of 69 dwarf galaxies with stellar masses 106 < M⋆ < 109 M⊙. The survey used FLAMES on the ESO Very Large Telescope. SHαDE is designed to study the kinematics and stellar populations of dwarf galaxies using consistent methods applied to massive galaxies and at matching level of detail, connecting these mass ranges in an unbiased way. In this paper, we set out the science goals of SHαDE, describe the sample properties, outline the data reduction, and analysis processes. We investigate the log M⋆–log S0.5 mass–kinematics scaling relation, which has previously shown potential for combining galaxies of all morphologies in a single scaling relation. We extend the scaling relation from massive galaxies to dwarf galaxies, demonstrating this relation is linear down to a stellar mass of M⋆ ∼ 108.6 M⊙. Below this limit, the kinematics of galaxies inside one effective radius appears to be dominated by the internal velocity dispersion limit of the H α-emitting gas, giving a bend in the log M⋆–log S0.5 relation. Replacing stellar mass with total baryonic mass using gas mass estimate reduces the severity but does not remove the linearity limit of the scaling relation. An extrapolation to estimate the galaxies’ dark matter halo masses, yields a log Mh–log S0.5 scaling relation that is free of any bend, has reduced curvature over the whole mass range, and brings galaxies of all masses and morphologies on to the virial relation.

Barat, Dilyar↗

DOE OSTI2019

Level-set Modeling Simulations of Chemical Vapor Infiltration for Ceramic Matrix Composites Manufacturing

Silicon-carbide (SiC) reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are a key enabling technology to reduce fuel consumption and emissions of gas turbine engines. In one manufacturing approach, chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) is limited to only coating SiC fibers. The preform is then fabricated using a lay-up of basic plys or 2-D woven sheets composed of the precoated fibers. At the other extreme, CVI is used to completely densify a 3-D woven preform shaped almost like the gas turbine component itself. The latter approach is more suitable for highly engineered components which sit directly in the gas path of the engine, for example, a high pressure turbine blade. In this case, the geometry is necessarily complex for aerodynamic, stress, and lifing (multi-physics) requirements. Presently, optimizing the CVI-dominated manufacturing approach is largely by trial-and-error. In this work, a first-principles modeling of CVI is performed to realize optimization of SiC/SiC CMC manufacturing. The modeling is based on a level-set framework to describe the interface between the vapor and solid phases. A finite-difference numerical scheme using an immersed boundary method is developed for fixed, structured meshes. Massively parallel direct numerical simulations (DNS) of CVI through fiber-woven geometries are performed using one-step chemistry, and over a range of Thiele moduli. Illustrative applications of the resulting large DNS data sets are given, including the development of fiber-weave specific infiltration models and structure functions for mean-field (porous media) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of CVI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1973

Mariner Mars 9 stereophotogrammetry

Discussion of the equipment and orbital specifications of the Mariner Mars 9 spacecraft - a Martian orbiter which was placed in orbit on Nov. 14, 1971, for an expected 50-year stay and has made possible a practically 100% photographic coverage of the planet's surface. The orbit has a nominal 12-hr period, a nominal periapsis of 1300 km, and a nominal apoapsis of 18,000 km. Many of the outstanding topographic features of the planet have been covered by the convergent stereopairs carried by the orbiter. Theoretical considerations are set forth concerning the necessary instrument orientation and rotation requirements to achieve such performance levels in this extraterrestrial application of photogrammetry. The photogrammetric method used in this mission is assessed as useful in the evaluation of outstanding Martian features such as the mammoth volcano of the Nix Olympica region.

Benesh, M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

On instruction sets and their formats

Central to instruction set design is the issue of the instruction format. Some common format encoding techniques are discussed, and a method of representing high-level language parse trees by means of formats that cover successively larger portions of a tree is introduced. Variations are introduced on the method that represent directed acyclic graphs as well as simple parse trees, and that encode constants in a special fashion. For a particular representation, the number of times each format is executed to run a sample program to completion is measured.

Flynn, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The vibrational frequencies of ozone

The singles and doubles coupled-cluster (CCSD) method is used, together with the recently proposed CCSD(T) and CCSDT-1 methods, to determine the equilibrium structure and harmonic frequencies of ozone at various levels, on the basis of large one-particle basis sets. It is demonstrated that f-type functions are required in order to obtain quantitative accuracy for the equilibrium structure and harmonic frequencies. The CCSD(T) level of theory, in conjunction with a (4s 3p 2d 1f) atomic natural orbital set, yields an equilibrium geometry and harmonic frequencies that are in excellent agreement with experimental results; an effort has accordingly been made to determine the cubic and quartic force constants, and evaluate the anharmonic corrections to the fundamental vibrational frequencies.

Lee, Timothy J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Propagating sample variance uncertainties in redshift calibration: simulations, theory, and application to the COSMOS2015 data

ABSTRACT Cosmological analyses of galaxy surveys rely on knowledge of the redshift distribution of their galaxy sample. This is usually derived from a spectroscopic and/or many-band photometric calibrator survey of a small patch of sky. The uncertainties in the redshift distribution of the calibrator sample include a contribution from shot noise, or Poisson sampling errors, but, given the small volume they probe, they are dominated by sample variance introduced by large-scale structures. Redshift uncertainties have been shown to constitute one of the leading contributions to systematic uncertainties in cosmological inferences from weak lensing and galaxy clustering, and hence they must be propagated through the analyses. In this work, we study the effects of sample variance on small-area redshift surveys, from theory to simulations to the COSMOS2015 data set. We present a three-step Dirichlet method of resampling a given survey-based redshift calibration distribution to enable the propagation of both shot noise and sample variance uncertainties. The method can accommodate different levels of prior confidence on different redshift sources. This method can be applied to any calibration sample with known redshifts and phenotypes (i.e. cells in a self-organizing map, or some other way of discretizing photometric space), and provides a simple way of propagating prior redshift uncertainties into cosmological analyses. As a worked example, we apply the full scheme to the COSMOS2015 data set, for which we also present a new, principled SOM algorithm designed to handle noisy photometric data. We make available a catalogue of the resulting resamplings of the COSMOS2015 galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Benchmarking the extraction of statistical neutron capture cross sections on short-lived nuclei for applications using the β -Oslo method

Numerous scientific fields including astrophysics, nuclear power, and nuclear forensics require a knowledge of basic nuclear properties for large numbers of short-lived, radioactive isotopes far removed from stable nuclei. Neutron-capture cross sections are one such piece of nuclear data where direct measurements are not possible and theoretical predictions can vary by orders of magnitude. A recently developed indirect technique for inferring neutron capture rates, the β-Oslo method, has been introduced but not compared against a known, directly measured neutron capture cross section. To provide this benchmark, two indirect methods based on β decay and charged-particle reactions were used to extract the nuclear level density and γ-ray strength function of 51 Ti. The nuclear level density and γ-ray strength function from the two data sets were found to be equivalent and were used to extract the neutron capture cross section of 50 Ti which agrees with previous direct measurements at high neutron energies. Here, the results demonstrate the validity of the β-Oslo method for extracting neutron capture cross sections of short-lived nuclei and provide a sufficiently small uncertainty to be used in various applications.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2009

Synthesis and Control of Flexible Systems with Component-Level Uncertainties

An efficient and computationally robust method for synthesis of component dynamics is developed. The method defines the interface forces/moments as feasible vectors in transformed coordinates to ensure that connectivity requirements of the combined structure are met. The synthesized system is then defined in a transformed set of feasible coordinates. The simplicity of form is exploited to effectively deal with modeling parametric and non-parametric uncertainties at the substructure level. Uncertainty models of reasonable size and complexity are synthesized for the combined structure from those in the substructure models. In particular, we address frequency and damping uncertainties at the component level. The approach first considers the robustness of synthesized flexible systems. It is then extended to deal with non-synthesized dynamic models with component-level uncertainties by projecting uncertainties to the system level. A numerical example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Maghami, Peiman G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Comparison of different methods for estimating snowcover in forested, mountainous basins using LANDSAT (ERTS) images

Snow-covered areas on LANDSAT (ERTS) images of the Santiam River basin, Oregon, and other basins in Washington were measured using several operators and methods. Seven methods were used: (1) Snowline tracing followed by measurement with planimeter, (2) mean snowline altitudes determined from many locations, (3) estimates in 2.5 x 2.5 km boxes of snow-covered area with reference to snow-free images, (4) single radiance-threshold level for entire basin, (5) radiance-threshold setting locally edited by reference to altitude contours and other images, (6) two-band color-sensitive extraction locally edited as in (5), and (7) digital (spectral) pattern recognition techniques. The seven methods are compared in regard to speed of measurement, precision, the ability to recognize snow in deep shadow or in trees, relative cost, and whether useful supplemental data are produced.

Meier, M. J.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Review and evaluation of recent developments in melic inlet dynamic flow distortion prediction and computer program documentation and user's manual estimating maximum instantaneous inlet flow distortion from steady-state total pressure measurements with full, limited, or no dynamic data

A review of the Melick method of inlet flow dynamic distortion prediction by statistical means is provided. These developments include the general Melick approach with full dynamic measurements, a limited dynamic measurement approach, and a turbulence modelling approach which requires no dynamic rms pressure fluctuation measurements. These modifications are evaluated by comparing predicted and measured peak instantaneous distortion levels from provisional inlet data sets. A nonlinear mean-line following vortex model is proposed and evaluated as a potential criterion for improving the peak instantaneous distortion map generated from the conventional linear vortex of the Melick method. The model is simplified to a series of linear vortex segments which lay along the mean line. Maps generated with this new approach are compared with conventionally generated maps, as well as measured peak instantaneous maps. Inlet data sets include subsonic, transonic, and supersonic inlets under various flight conditions.

Schweikhard, W. G.↗