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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

ORBIT-2 Dataset for Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling

This dataset release corresponds to the work conducted in ORBIT-2: Scaling Exascale Vision Foundation Models for Weather and Climate Downscaling, where large-scale AI methods were applied to improve climate and weather resolution. The collection integrates four widely used, publicly available datasets: ERA5, PRISM, DAYMET, and IMERG. To prepare the data for ORBIT-2 model training and evaluation, we applied a preprocessing pipeline that generates paired low-resolution and high-resolution samples, enabling supervised downscaling experiments. The transformation from coarse to fine scales was performed using bilinear regridding, consistent with the procedures described in WeatherBench2, a community benchmark for weather and climate AI models. This dataset supports the development and evaluation of foundation models designed for weather and climate downscaling at exascale. Additional details on methodology and applications can be found in Wang et al., ORBIT-2 (arXiv:2505.04802, 2025).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Capability in Theory, Modeling, and Validation for a Range of Innovative Fusion Concepts using High-Fidelity Moment-Kinetic Models

A computational modeling capability is created and available to the fusion community to understand and design lower-cost and innovative fusion concepts. The approach uses high- fidelity kinetic, moment-kinetic, and moment models and includes sophisticated plasma- boundary interactions. A majority of fusion-relevant simulations are performed with magnetohydrodynamic models and hybrid particle-in-cell codes, with limited-fidelity electron and kinetic physics. However, in fusion configurations like Z-pinches, field-reversed- configurations, plasma jet magneto-inertial fusion, spinning mirrors, and others, kinetic effects (both electron and ions) are critical to understand the physics and design scaling into the highly kinetic regime of a burning fusion plasma. Furthermore, as present fusion machines move towards a burning plasma regime, liquid-metal blankets are needed to handle first-wall heat- flux, reduce erosion, and eventually for energy conversion and fuel breeding. The work performed under this ARPA-E BETHE Capability Team advances the state-of-the-art in modeling and understanding plasma dynamics in fusion devices and its coupling with liquid-metal dynamics. These are critical areas of research for fusion energy to become realizable. To address these complex problems, we have leveraged and extended computational capabilities through the code, Gkeyll (developed jointly with Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory and academic partners), for kinetic and moment modeling of fusion plasmas. The Concept Teams supported by this Capability Team include the Wisconsin High-field Axisymmetric Mirror (WHAM), Centrifugal Mirror Experiment (CFME), Plasma-Jet Magneto- Inertial Fusion (PJMIF), and solid and liquid wall plasma-material interaction studies relevant to a number of fusion concepts including Zap Energy’s Z-pinch. This software is open-source and available to the fusion community as a high-fidelity tool for the design of lower-cost fusion experiments. 3D gyrokinetic simulations of WHAM are now possible for long enough time scales to understand the evolution of interchange instabilities. 3D multi-fluid simulations of CMFE at higher Mach numbers are now possible for detailed design iterations with the goal of stability. The state-of-the-art in understanding shock formation and shock mitigation regimes in merging liners for PJMIF have been furthered by our kinetic simulations. Our novel models and frameworks studying plasma-material interaction by incorporating wall emission for various solid wall materials of relevance to pulsed and steady fusion concepts have advanced the state-of-the-art in our understanding of particle fluxes, heat fluxes, and other quantities at cathodes and anodes. The results from this work may explain discrepancies between experimental and theoretical predictions of achieved current densities in pulsed concepts such as Z-pinches. Another significant contribution of this Capability Team is the development and deployment of a novel experimental platform, LEX (Liquid Electrode eXperiment), at Virginia Tech to understand liquid metal free-surface response to electromagnetic pulses. The novel experiments along with model validation quantified the effect of different materials and sizes of liquid metal droplets on the radiative power balance of fusion plasmas for pulsed concepts. Furthermore, these experiments provided mitigation strategies for violent liquid metal response for high current pulses as would be expected in fusion regimes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Coupling Noah-Multiparameterization land-surface Model with Energy Research and Forecasting Model

The Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) model is a high-performance atmospheric model built on the AMReX adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) framework, enabling efficient simulations on heterogeneous computing platforms that combine multicore processors with hardware accelerators. To support land–atmosphere interactions within ERF’s AMR-based environment, a land-surface model must be capable of operating directly on hierarchically refined meshes. In this work, we present a methodology for coupling the Fortran-based Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP) land-surface model with ERF’s C++ codebase. Rather than rewriting Noah-MP, we construct a Fortran–C interoperability layer using CodeScribe, a tool that leverages large language models (LLMs) to automate the generation of interface code. CodeScribe applies structured prompting techniques to generate bindings that support efficient data exchange and function calls between ERF and Noah-MP. The coupling framework also incorporates AMR-aware data handling strategies, allowing NoahMP to operate seamlessly within ERF’s hierarchical mesh structure. This work provides a structured approach for integrating legacy Fortran models into modern C++-based modeling systems using LLM-assisted code generation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Full-sky Models of Galactic Microwave Emission and Polarization at Subarcminute Scales for the Python Sky Model

Polarized foreground emission from the Galaxy is one of the biggest challenges facing current and upcoming cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiments. We develop new models of polarized Galactic dust and synchrotron emission at CMB frequencies that draw on the latest observational constraints; that employ the “polarization fraction tensor” framework to couple intensity and polarization in a physically motivated way; and that allow for stochastic realizations of small-scale structure at subarcminute angular scales currently unconstrained by full-sky data. We implement these models into the publicly available Python Sky Model (PySM) software and additionally provide PySM interfaces to select models of dust and CO emission from the literature. We characterize the behavior of each model by quantitatively comparing it to observational constraints in both maps and power spectra, demonstrating an overall improvement over previous PySM models. Finally, we synthesize models of the various Galactic foreground components into a coherent suite of three plausible microwave skies that span a range of astrophysical complexity allowed by current data. Author contributions to this paper can be found at the end of this work.

Group, The Pan-Experiment Galactic Science↗

V/STOL tilt rotor aircraft study mathematical model for a real time simulation of a tilt rotor aircraft (Boeing Vertol Model 222), volume 8

This report documents the development of a real time mathematical model of a tilt rotor aircraft. This mathematical model is to be used in conjunction with the NASA Flight Simulator for Advanced Aircraft (FSAA) at Ames Research Center for evaluation of aircraft performance and handling qualities. In addition to developing the mathematical model, a parallel programming effort was conducted utilizing Boeing-Vertol's Hybrid Simulation Laboratory for the purpose of developing and evaluating model simplification. The mathematical model is an eleven degree of freedom total force model. This model includes the basic six degree of freedom rigid body .outer loop equations written about the instantaneous center of gravity with the inertial and aerodynamic terms included. The rotor is treated as a point source of forces and moments with appropriate response time lags and actuator dynamics. The wing has one vertical bending and one wing torsion degree of freedom. These structural degrees of freedom are treated on a "quasistatic" basis; i.e., the natural frequencies of vibration of the structure are much higher than the· frequencies of the rigid body motion, and the coupling is in the aerodynamic terms. Each nacelle has an independent pitch degree of freedom about the wing pivot. The aerodynamics of the wing, tail, rotors, landing gear and fuselage are included. Wing and tail mutual interference effects and turbine engine performance and dynamic responses' are represented.

H Rosenstein↗

Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

Heineke, J. M.↗

Mixed models and reduced/selective integration displacement models for nonlinear analysis of curved beams

Simple mixed models are developed for use in the geometrically nonlinear analysis of deep arches. A total Lagrangian description of the arch deformation is used, the analytical formulation being based on a form of the nonlinear deep arch theory with the effects of transverse shear deformation included. The fundamental unknowns comprise the six internal forces and generalized displacements of the arch, and the element characteristic arrays are obtained by using Hellinger-Reissner mixed variational principle. The polynomial interpolation functions employed in approximating the forces are one degree lower than those used in approximating the displacements, and the forces are discontinuous at the interelement boundaries. Attention is given to the equivalence between the mixed models developed herein and displacement models based on reduced integration of both the transverse shear and extensional energy terms. The advantages of mixed models over equivalent displacement models are summarized. Numerical results are presented to demonstrate the high accuracy and effectiveness of the mixed models developed and to permit a comparison of their performance with that of other mixed models reported in the literature.

Noor, A. K.↗

Turbulent transport modeling of shear flows around an aerodynamic wing. Development of turbulent near-wall model and its application to recirculating flows

Progress in implementing and refining two near-wall turbulence models in which the near-wall region is divided into either two or three zones is outlined. These models were successfully applied to the computation of recirculating flows. The research was further extended to obtaining experimental results of two different recirculating flow conditions in order to check the validity of the present models. Two different experimental apparatuses were set up: axisymmetric turbulent impinging jets on a flat plate, and turbulent flows in a circular pipe with a abrupt pipe expansion. It is shown that generally better results are obtained by using the present near-wall models, and among the models the three-zone model is superior to the two-zone model.

Amano, R. S.↗

Verification and transfer of thermal pollution model. Volume 3: Verification of 3-dimensional rigid-lid model

The six-volume report: describes the theory of a three dimensional (3-D) mathematical thermal discharge model and a related one dimensional (1-D) model, includes model verification at two sites, and provides a separate user's manual for each model. The 3-D model has two forms: free surface and rigid lid. The former, verified at Anclote Anchorage (FL), allows a free air/water interface and is suited for significant surface wave heights compared to mean water depth; e.g., estuaries and coastal regions. The latter, verified at Lake Keowee (SC), is suited for small surface wave heights compared to depth (e.g., natural or man-made inland lakes) because surface elevation has been removed as a parameter. These models allow computation of time-dependent velocity and temperature fields for given initial conditions and time-varying boundary conditions. The free-surface model also provides surface height variations with time.

Lee, S. S.↗

Verification and transfer of thermal pollution model. Volume 4: User's manual for three-dimensional rigid-lid model

The theory of a three dimensional (3-D) mathematical thermal discharge model and a related one dimensional (1-D) model are described. Model verification at two sites, a separate user's manual for each model are included. The 3-D model has two forms: free surface and rigid lid. The former allows a free air/water interface and is suited for significant surface wave heights compared to mean water depth, estuaries and coastal regions. The latter is suited for small surface wave heights compared to depth because surface elevation was removed as a parameter. These models allow computation of time dependent velocity and temperature fields for given initial conditions and time-varying boundary conditions. The free surface model also provides surface height variations with time.

Lee, S. S.↗

The display of molecular models with the Ames Interactive Modeling System (AIMS)

A visualization of molecular models can lead to a clearer understanding of the models. Sophisticated graphics devices supported by minicomputers make it possible for the chemist to interact with the display of a very large model, altering its structure. In addition to user interaction, the need arises also for other ways of displaying information. These include the production of viewgraphs, film presentation, as well as publication quality prints of various models. To satisfy these needs, the display capability of the Ames Interactive Modeling System (AIMS) has been enhanced to provide a wide range of graphics and plotting capabilities. Attention is given to an overview of the AIMS system, graphics hardware used by the AIMS display subsystem, a comparison of graphics hardware, the representation of molecular models, graphics software used by the AIMS display subsystem, the display of a model obtained from data stored in molecule data base, a graphics feature for obtaining single frame permanent copy displays, and a feature for producing multiple frame displays.

Egan, J. T.↗

Approximating a finite element model of a hybrid deployable truss by a discrete mass model

The NASTRAN finite element model of the MSFC/hybrid deployable truss is approximated by a model consisting of four bodies serially connected by a spring hinge suspension. The truss is decomposed into four serially connected modules determining the total mass and rotational inertias for a rigid body with its mass center on the axis of the truss for each module. A five-body cantilever truss model is developed along with an undamped form of this model. Spring coefficient values are generated to match eigenvalues of the latter model with those of the NASTRAN model. Damping coefficients are then determined that provide n percent of critical damping for the model.

Chichester, F. D.↗

Improvement of the second- and third-moment modeling of turbulence: A study of Reynolds-stress closure model

Four parts of the Reynolds-stress closure modeling are reported: (1) improvement of the k and epsilon equaitons; (2) development of the third-moment transport equation; (3) formulation of the diffusion coefficient of the momentum equation by using the algebraic-stress model of turbulence; and (4) the application of the Reynolds-stress model to a heat exchanger problem. It was demonstrated that the third-moment transport model improved the prediction of the triple-velocity products in the recirculating and reattaching flow regions in comparison with the existing algebraic models for the triple-velocity products. Optimum values for empirical coefficients are obtained for the prediction of the backward-facing step flows. A functional expression is derived for the coefficient of the momentum diffusion by employing the algebraic-stress model. The second-moment closure is applied to a heat transfer problem. The computations for the flow in a corrugated-wall channel show that the second-moment closure improves the prediction of the heat transfer rates by 30% over the k - epsilon model.

Amano, R. S.↗

Shuttle derived atmospheric density model. Part 2: STS atmospheric implications for AOTV trajectory analysis, a proposed GRAM perturbation density model

A perturbation model to the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Global Reference Atmosphere Model (GRAM) was developed for use in the Aeroassist Orbital Transfer Vehicle (AOTV) trajectory and analysis. The model reflects NASA Space Shuttle experience over the first twelve entry flights. The GRAM was selected over the Air Force 1978 Reference Model because of its more general formulation and wider use throughout NASA. The add-on model, a simple scaling with altitude to reflect density structure encountered by the Shuttle Orbiter was selected principally to simplify implementation. Perturbations, by season, can be utilized to minimize the number of required simulations, however, exact Shuttle flight history can be exercised using the same model if desired. Such a perturbation model, though not meteorologically motivated, enables inclusion of High Resolution Accelerometer Package (HiRAP) results in the thermosphere. Provision is made to incorporate differing perturbations during the AOTV entry and exit phases of the aero-asist maneuver to account for trajectory displacement (geographic) along the ground track.

Findlay, J. T.↗

Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL geodetic GPS modeling software GPSOMC

The physical models employed in GPSOMC and the modeling module of the GIPSY software system developed at JPL for analysis of geodetic Global Positioning Satellite (GPS) measurements are described. Details of the various contributions to range and phase observables are given, as well as the partial derivatives of the observed quantities with respect to model parameters. A glossary of parameters is provided to enable persons doing data analysis to identify quantities in the current report with their counterparts in the computer programs. There are no basic model revisions, with the exceptions of an improved ocean loading model and some new options for handling clock parametrization. Such misprints as were discovered were corrected. Further revisions include modeling improvements and assurances that the model description is in accord with the current software.

Sovers, O. J.↗

Modeling the behavioral substrates of associate learning and memory - Adaptive neural models

Three adaptive single-neuron models based on neural analogies of behavior modification episodes are proposed, which attempt to bridge the gap between psychology and neurophysiology. The proposed models capture the predictive nature of Pavlovian conditioning, which is essential to the theory of adaptive/learning systems. The models learn to anticipate the occurrence of a conditioned response before the presence of a reinforcing stimulus when training is complete. Furthermore, each model can find the most nonredundant and earliest predictor of reinforcement. The behavior of the models accounts for several aspects of basic animal learning phenomena in Pavlovian conditioning beyond previous related models. Computer simulations show how well the models fit empirical data from various animal learning paradigms.

Lee, Chuen-Chien↗

Modeling of near wall turbulence and modeling of bypass transition

The objectives for this project are as follows: (1) Modeling of the near wall turbulence: We aim to develop a second order closure for the near wall turbulence. As a first step of this project, we try to develop a kappa-epsilon model for near wall turbulence. We require the resulting model to be able to handle both near wall turbulence and turbulent flows away from the wall, computationally robust, and applicable for complex flow situations, flow with separation, for example, and (2) Modeling of the bypass transition: We aim to develop a bypass transition model which contains the effect of intermittency. Thus, the model can be used for both the transitional boundary layers and the turbulent boundary layers. We require the resulting model to give a good prediction of momentum and heat transfer within the transitional boundary and a good prediction of the effect of freestream turbulence on transitional boundary layers.

Yang, Z.↗