Bayesian calibration and exploration of agent-based epidemiological models (Poster)
poster for ASCR PI meeting
Ray, Jaideep [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA↗
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Bayesian calibration and exploration of agent-based epidemiological models
Abstract for a poster to be presented at ASCR PI meeting.
Ray, Jaideep [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-CA↗
Assessing Inverter-Based Resources Modeling Gaps in Commonly Used Short-Circuit Programs
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Cheng, Zheyuan [Quanta Technology]↗
Process-based Ecosystem Model for Soil Carbon, Soil Water, and Soil Health
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Environmental sciences↗
Hybrid Energy-Powered Electrochemical Direct Ocean Capture Model
Offshore synthetic fuel production and marine carbon dioxide removal can be enabled by direct ocean capture, which extracts carbon dioxide from the ocean that then can be used as a feedstock for fuel production or sequestered underground. To maximize carbon capture, plants require a variety of low-carbon energy sources to operate, such as variable renewable energy. However, the impacts of variable power on direct ocean capture have not yet been thoroughly investigated. To facilitate future deployments, a generalizable model for electrodialysis-based direct ocean capture plants is created to evaluate plant performance and electricity costs under intermittent power availability. This open-source Python-based model captures key aspects of the electrochemistry, ocean chemistry, post-processing, and operation scenarios under various conditions. To incorporate realistic energy supply dynamics and cost estimates, the model is coupled with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s H2Integrate tool, which simulates hybrid energy system performance profiles and costs. This integrated framework is designed to provide system-level insights while maintaining computational efficiency and flexibility for scenario exploration. Initial evaluations show similar results to those predicted by the industry, and demonstrate how a given plant could function with variable power in different deployment locations, such as with wind energy off the coast of Texas and with wind and wave energy off the coast of Oregon. The results suggest that electrochemical systems with greater tolerances for power variability and low minimum power requirements may offer operational advantages in variable-energy contexts. However, further research is needed to quantify these benefits and evaluate their implications across different deployment scenarios.
16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
Comparison of Machine Learning-Based Predictive Models of the Nutrient Loads Delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin to the Gulf of Mexico
Predicting nutrient loads is essential to understanding and managing one of the environmental issues faced by the northern Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone, which poses a severe threat to the Gulf’s healthy ecosystem and economy. The development of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico is strongly associated with the eutrophication process initiated by excessive nutrient loads. Due to the complexities in the excessive nutrient loads to the Gulf of Mexico, it is challenging to understand and predict the underlying temporal variation of nutrient loads. The study was aimed at identifying an optimal predictive machine learning model to capture and predict nonlinear behavior of the nutrient loads delivered from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to the Gulf of Mexico. For this purpose, monthly nutrient loads (N and P) in tons were collected from US Geological Survey (USGS) monitoring station 07373420 from 1980 to 2020. Machine learning models—including autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), gaussian process regression (GPR), single-layer multilayer perceptron (MLP), and a long short-term memory (LSTM) with the single hidden layer—were developed to predict the monthly nutrient loads, and model performances were evaluated by standard assessment metrics—Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Correlation Coefficient (R). The residuals of predictive models were examined by the Durbin–Watson statistic. The results showed that MLP and LSTM persistently achieved better accuracy in predicting monthly TN and TP loads compared to GPR and ARIMA. In addition, GPR models achieved slightly better test RMSE score than ARIMA models while their correlation coefficients are much lower than ARIMA models. Moreover, MLP performed slightly better than LSTM in predicting monthly TP loads while LSTM slightly outperformed for TN loads. Furthermore, it was found that the optimizer and number of inputs didn’t show effects on the LSTM performance while they exhibited impacts on MLP outcomes. This study explores the capability of machine learning models to accurately predict nonlinearly fluctuating nutrient loads delivered to the Gulf of Mexico. Further efforts focus on improving the accuracy of forecasting using hybrid models which combine several machine learning models with superior predictive performance for nutrient fluxes throughout the MARB.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Pressure-Gradient-Based RANS Model for Predicting Separation in Transitional and Turbulent Flows
Predicting flow separation poses a significant challenge for RANS models, particularly in transitional flows over airfoils. We propose a novel improvement to RANS models to predict incipient separation in both transitional and fully turbulent flows. Our approach modifies the eddy viscosity model in regions indicated by a pressure-gradient criterion that accounts for intermittency - determining whether the boundary layer is laminar or turbulent. This model demonstrates robust generalization across various airfoil shapes and Reynolds numbers. Applied to the NREL Phase VI wind turbine rotor, our model shows improved aerodynamic performance predictions compared to the baseline RANS model.
k-omega SST↗
Improved School and Workplace Interactions in ExaEpi, an Agent–Based Epidemiological Model
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Biological and medical sciences↗
Assessing Inverter-Based Resources Modeling Gaps in Commonly Used Short-Circuit Programs
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Cheng, Zheyuan [Quanta Technology]↗
The 3D clustering of Lyman Alpha Emitters measured with DESI
We present a clustering analysis of Lyman-$α$ emitters (LAEs) using spectroscopic observations from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) of candidates selected from the Blanco/DECam Intermediate-Band Imaging Survey (IBIS). We measure the two-point correlation function and the power spectrum, including cross-correlations with DESI quasars. Using both analytical and halo occupation distribution (HOD) simulation-based modeling, we find a linear bias of $b \sim 2.31$--$2.62$ for LAEs over the redshift range $2.26 < z < 3.41$. The analytical modeling also provides constraints on the strength of radiative transfer effects, while the HOD analysis characterizes the LAE-halo connection across multiple models. Finally, we quantify the magnitude of non-perturbative clustering effects such as Fingers of God in the LAE population, providing essential input for the accurate modeling of LAE-based cosmological analyses in forthcoming high-redshift surveys such as DESI-II.
Ebina, H. [UC, Berkeley; LBL, Berkeley] (ORCID:000↗
Exploring impacts of electricity tariff on charging infrastructure planning: An activity-based approach
In the past decade, electric vehicles (EVs) have gained popularity for their efficiency and environmental benefits. Advances in battery technology and charging equipment have yielded long-range EVs and fast-charging. However, many major cities lack adequate charging infrastructure for daily EV use. This study addresses this gap by integrating activity-based modeling, charging behavior simulation, and charging infrastructure optimization. The research utilizes the POLARIS agent-based transportation model to accurately capture user activities, trip patterns, and traffic flows. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of fixed and spatiotemporal electricity rate distributions on optimal charging infrastructure deployment. The framework is applied to the Chicago regional area network and analyzed under various EV ownership scenarios. Further, the results reveal significant impacts of the charging pricing strategy on user decision-making and charging demand distribution. There is also a need for consistent pricing policies in charging infrastructure planning and operational phases to avoid drops in service quality.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Visibility-enhanced model-free deep reinforcement learning algorithm for voltage control in realistic distribution systems using smart inverters
Increasing integration of distributed solar photovoltaic (PV) into distribution networks could result in adverse effects on grid operation. Traditional model-based control algorithms require accurate model information that is difficult to acquire and thus are challenging to implement in practice. Here, this paper proposes a surrogate model-enabled grid visibility scheme to empower deep reinforcement learning (DRL) approach for distribution network voltage regulation using PV inverters with minimal system knowledge. In contrast to existing DRL methods, this paper presents and corroborates the adverse impact of missing load information on DRL performance and, based on this finding, proposes a surrogate model methodology to impute load information utilizing observable data. Additionally, a multi-fidelity neural network is utilized to construct the DRL training environment, chosen for its efficient data utilization and enhanced robustness to data uncertainty. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm are assessed by considering DRL testing across varying degrees of observable load information and diverse training environments on a realistic power system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Modeling low cycle fatigue (LCF) of additively manufactured Hastelloy X using An accelerated crystal plasticity fatigue damage model
This paper presents a microstructure-based model for low cycle fatigue (LCF) behavior and life of Nickel-based alloy Hastelloy X manufactured using laser-powder bed fusion (L-PBF) additive manufacturing (AM). AM Hastelloy X, a solution-strengthened alloy, is tested at elevated temperature under fully reversed LCF conditions at different strain levels. A generalized plane strain finite element model is generated from electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) characterization. The constitutive behavior of the material under fatigue is modeled using crystal plasticity and calibrated with both monotonic tensile and cyclic stress–strain data. The fatigue micro-crack initiation and propagation in the microstructure is modeled using a modified Chaboche fatigue damage model. An embedded boundary condition with a homogenous medium is used to apply the cyclic deformation and prevent numerically introduced over-constraints during fatigue simulation. A ‘cycle-jump’ method is used to accelerate the fatigue simulation and reduce the computational cost. The simulation results are compared to LCF experiments, showing satisfactory matches in cyclic stress behavior and number of cycles to macro-crack initiation for all applied strain ranges. In addition, the model illustrates the potential for quantifying microscale fatigue life impacting factors such as microstructure and surface roughness, which is needed to accurately quantify the reliability of AM components in service.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Concurrent two-way coupling of global and local models across internal boundaries with non-matching discretizations
Coupling local and global models enables efficient simulation of multiscale systems, where global models capture large-scale behavior and local models, with enhanced physics, resolve finer details over a smaller region. Here, this paper presents a mathematically consistent method for coupling physics-based models of varying fidelity across adjacent, non-overlapping subdomains, even when discretizations do not match at the immersed interdomain interfaces. Incompressible Navier-Stokes equations (NSE) constitute the global model while residual-based turbulence model serves as the local high-fidelity model. In addition, a scalar advection-diffusion equation that models the convection of an active scalar field is appended to the turbulence model in the local domain. This scalar field does not have its complement in the global model, giving rise to unequal number of equations at the immersed boundary between local and global models. Interdomain coupling terms are derived via the Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMDG) method with new developments in scale representation and efficient fine-scale estimation. While transient laminar flows modeled with NSE in the global domain can be resolved with relatively coarse mesh, turbulent flow calculations in the local model require much finer spatial discretizations as well as smaller time-step for appropriately resolving the turbulent flow physics. The proposed framework also accommodates non-matching meshes at the immersed boundaries. Test problems in 2D and 3D numerically showcase the concurrent two-way coupling of unknown fields across the immersed boundaries. The 3D test presents a case with an unequal number of equations, where the scalar field represents the convection of contaminant concentration. This provides more detailed physics in the local region and highlights its application in climate modeling and atmospheric sciences.
Variational Multiscale Discontinuous Galerkin (VMD↗
First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants
Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.
Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗
First-Principles Cost Analysis of Advanced High-Temperature Nuclear Plants
Due to the vast number of recent nuclear reactor innovations, particularly those pertaining to generation IV reactor types like high-temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGRs) and sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs), and the newer deployment strategies envisioned, such as use of small modular reactors (SMRs) or even microreactors, reliable, detailed, and complete costs of these nuclear innovations are needed in wide availability. The types of models that generally achieve these objectives are those incorporating the fundamental nature of the real-world systems they aspire to predict, such as first-principles models. Furthermore, first principles models typically offer predictiveness that is not attained by most other types of individual-models. However, detailed, first-principles cost modeling of nuclear reactors and entire nuclear plants is relatively limited. To address this limitation in the availability of detailed, predictive models based on fundamentals, we recently developed a range of cost models, mostly based on first-principles methodologies, to project full lifecycle costs (LCCs) of nuclear power plants (NPPs) based on multiple parallel SM-HTG-pebble bed reactors (PBRs) and SM-SFRs.
Prosser, Jacob H. [Strategic Analysis, Inc., Arlin↗
Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD
Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling
97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
The Monolithic Heat Pipe Microreactor Reference Plant Model Updates
This work presents the latest improvements to, and investigations performed with, the generic monolithic heat-pipe-cooled microreactor reference plant model for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. This model serves as the foundation for the future detailed design evaluation models based on license applications. This model has been developed with the Comprehensive Reactor Analysis Bundle (BlueCRAB) and its specifications are based on open literature publications for the eVinci™ design . BlueCRAB is the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission non-light-water reactor analysis system based on MOOSE, the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment framework, which can couple the Griffin, BISON, and Sockeye applications to resolve the various physics that are essential for the safety analysis of this type of reactor system. The core specifications include tristructural isotropic fuel, graphite monolith, graphite reflectors, and drums composed of graphite and B 4 C.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗