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DOE OSTI2026

Theory of the thermionic current beyond the traditional space charge limit enabled by trapped ions in the virtual cathode

We show that trapped ions in virtual cathode potential wells can raise the transmitted current of emitted electrons into a plasma much closer to the full emission than is predicted by cathode sheath theories without trapped ions. The transmitted current is controlled by the well barrier voltage, which must adjust to balance the creation of low-energy ions within the well, and their loss. Our model considers the case of a plasma-facing cathode where trapped ions are created passively via charge-exchange collisions and lost passively via thermal leakage over the well. We quantify these rates and estimate the current in terms of system parameters for thermionic emission into a plasma with several cathode geometries. A general prediction is that the current as a function of emitted flux does not saturate at the traditional space charge limit (the onset of a well) but can reach far higher values until the trapped ion balance breaks down, causing instability. The maximum stable current depends on parameters but in principle can be arbitrarily high if active techniques are used to manipulate the trapped ion balance. We conclude that major improvements in plasma technologies with hot cathodes might be achieved by optimizing the current enhancement enabled by trapped ions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Projecting Large Fires in the Western US With an Interpretable and Accurate Hybrid Machine Learning Method

More frequent and widespread large fires are occurring in the western United States (US), yet reliable methods for predicting these fires, particularly with extended lead times and a high spatial resolution, remain challenging. In this study, we proposed an interpretable and accurate hybrid machine learning (ML) model, that explicitly represented the controls of fuel flammability, fuel availability, and human suppression effects on fires. The model demonstrated notable accuracy with a F 1 -score of 0.846 ± 0.012, surpassing process-driven fire danger indices and four commonly used ML models by up to 40% and 9%, respectively. More importantly, the ML model showed remarkably higher interpretability relative to other ML models. Specifically, by demystifying the “black box” of each ML model using the explainable AI techniques, we identified substantial structural differences across ML fire models, even among those with similar accuracy. The relationships between fires and their drivers, identified by our model, were aligned closer with established fire physical principles. The ML structural discrepancy led to diverse fire predictions and our model predictions exhibited greater consistency with actual fire occurrence. With the highly interpretable and accurate model, we revealed the strong compound effects from multiple climate variables related to evaporative demand, energy release component, temperature, and wind speed, on the dynamics of large fires and megafires in the western US. Our findings highlight the importance of assessing the structural integrity of models in addition to their accuracy. They also underscore the critical need to address the rise in compound climate extremes linked to large wildfires.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Reversible Phasonic Control of a Quantum Phase Transition in a Quasicrystal

Periodic driving can tune the quasistatic properties of quantum matter. A well-known example is the dynamical modification of tunneling by an oscillating electric field. Here we show experimentally that driving the phasonic degree of freedom of a cold-atom quasicrystal can continuously tune the effective quasidisorder strength, reversibly toggling a localization-delocalization quantum phase transition. Measurements agree with fit-parameter-free theoretical predictions, and illuminate a fundamental connection between Aubry-André localization in one dimension and dynamic localization in the associated two-dimensional Harper-Hofstadter model. These results open up new experimental possibilities for dynamical coherent control of quantum phase transitions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Targeted Adaptive Design

Modern advanced manufacturing and advanced materials design often require searches of relatively high-dimensional process control parameter spaces for settings that result in optimal structure, property, and performance parameters. The mapping from the former to the latter must be determined from noisy experiments or from expensive simulations. Here, we abstract this problem to a mathematical framework in which an unknown function from a control space to a design space must be ascertained by means of expensive noisy measurements, which locate control settings generating desired design features within specified tolerances, with quantified uncertainty. We describe targeted adaptive design (TAD), a new algorithm that performs this sampling task efficiently. TAD creates a Gaussian process surrogate model of the unknown mapping at each iterative stage, proposing a new batch of control settings to sample experimentally and optimizing the updated expected log-predictive probability density of the target design. TAD either stops upon locating a solution with uncertainties that fit inside the tolerance box or uses a measure of expected future information to determine that the search space has been exhausted with no solution. TAD thus embodies the exploration-exploitation tension in a manner that recalls, but is essentially different from, Bayesian optimization and optimal experimental design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulations of liquid jetting with solid inclusions

The dynamics of finite-sized particles in fluids, and their influence on the overall flow, are of great interest across several industrial, environmental, and medical fields. In the context of inkjet printing, the presence of solid inclusions can be either intentional, as in additive manufacturing, or unintentional, as in standard printing processes. These inclusions can strongly impact the jetting process, causing effects such as jet asymmetry, bubble entrapment, and the formation of satellite droplets. Understanding and controlling particle behavior is therefore essential, particularly to predict how and when particles are ejected over multiple jetting cycles. It is therefore critical to develop reliable models that allow for a deeper understanding of the complex interplay between particle and fluid during the whole printing process. To address this, we present a tailored implementation of the Color-Gradient multicomponent Lattice Boltzmann Method for fully resolved three-dimensional (3D) simulations of multicycle liquid jetting with particles. Our method supports realistic parameter settings aligned with industrial inkjet systems, and we provide both qualitative and quantitative validation against experimental data. Additionally, we introduce a simplified model based on the Stokes drag law, in which solid particles are represented as point particles and do not influence the fluid flow. Despite this limitation, the model offers a computationally efficient means to explore the vast parameter space typically encountered in industrial applications, allowing, e.g., identifying critical ejection regions and estimating the number of cycles required for particle release. These qualitative insights are valuable for guiding and complement fully two-way coupled simulations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry using Multiscale Modeling Methods

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

IMAGINE BioSecurity: Mesocosm-Based Methods to Evaluate Biocontainment Strategies and Impact of Industrial Microbes Upon Native Ecosystems

Project Goals: The Integrative Modeling and Genome-scale Engineering for Biosystems Security (IMAGINE BioSecurity) SFA project seeks to establish an understanding of the behavior of engineered microbes in controlled versus environmental conditions to predictively devise new strategies for responding to biological escape. To this end, the IMAGINE Team has established a plant-soil mesocosm platform to track and quantify the fate of industrial microbes in environmental systems and assess the efficacy of biocontainment constraints upon genetically engineered microbe escape frequency and the impact of industrial microbes upon native ecological microbiomes. Abstract Text: Genetically modified industrial production microbes and their associated bioproducts have emerged as an integral component of a sustainable bioeconomy. However, the rapid development of these innovative technologies raises biosecurity concerns, namely, the risk of environmental escape. Thus, the realization of a bioeconomy hinges not only on the development and deployment of microbial production hosts, but also on the development of secure biosystems and biocontainment designs. Current laboratory-based biocontainment testing systems do not accurately reflect complexities found in natural environments, necessitating an environmentally relevant analysis pipeline that allows for the detection of rare escapees, the effect of associated bio-products, and the impact on native ecologies. To this end, we have developed an approach that utilizes soil mesocosms and integrated systems analyses to evaluate the efficacy of novel biocontainment strategies and to assess the impact of production systems upon terrestrial microbiome dynamics. We demonstrate the utility of this approach by modeling a contamination with industrial microbial chasses versus their biocontained counterparts. Here we demonstrate the broad utility of this system by highlighting findings from both strains of Saccharomyces cerevisiae that are contained with an inducible toxin anti-toxin system, and stains of Escherichia coli that are contained via genomic recoding. The resultant data demonstrate that this system has broad utility across diverse microbial chassis and biocontainment strategies, enables us to track the fate of our contaminating microbe with high sensitivity in the soil, as well as monitor broader impacts of the perturbation on the underlying soil system. The findings presented here support the use of this mesocosm-based approach to assess the environmental impact of industrial microbes and to validate biocontainment strategies.

BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES,INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYS↗

DOE OSTI2024

One-to-one aeroservoelastic validation of operational loads and performance of a 2.8 MW wind turbine model in OpenFAST

Abstract. This article presents a validation study of the popular aeroservoelastic code suite OpenFAST leveraging weeks of measurements obtained during normal operation of a 2.8 MW land-based wind turbine. Measured wind conditions were used to generate one-to-one turbulent flow fields (i.e., comparing simulation to measurement in 10 min increments, or bins) through unconstrained and constrained assimilation methods using the kinematic turbulence generators TurbSim and PyConTurb. A total of 253 bins of 10 min of normal turbine operation were selected for analysis, and a statistical comparison in terms of performance and loads is presented. We show that successful validation of the model was not strongly dependent on the type of inflow assimilation method used for mean quantities of interest, which had median modeling errors per wind-speed interval generally within 5 %–10 % of the measurement. The type of inflow assimilation method did have a larger effect on the fatigue predictions for blade-root flapwise and tower-base fore–aft quantities, which surprisingly saw larger errors from the assumed higher-fidelity assimilation methods. Avenues for further work are discussed and include possible improvements to the aerodynamic, structural, and controller modeling that may offer insight on the origin of the up to ∼ 40 % median overprediction of fatigue for these quantities.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Radiation-Induced Plutonium Redox Chemistry using Multi-scale Modeling Methods

Over the the last 70 years plutonium (Pu) has been integral in the development of several technologies that have changed the world, yet our fundamental understanding of its chemistry is still far from complete. This is a testament to this element’s unique and complex properties, such as its ability to coexist as multiple oxidation states in aqueous solution. Careful manipulation of plutonium oxidation states is essential in the study and utilization of its rich chemistry. To achieve this level of control, a comprehensive mechanistic understanding of radiation-induced plutonium redox chemistry is critical due to the unavoidable exposure of plutonium to ionizing radiation fields, both inherent and from in-process applications. For this reason, we have developed an experimentally evaluated multi-scale computer model for the prediction of gamma radiation-induced Pu(IV) redox chemistry in concentrated nitric acid solutions (1.0, 3.0, and 6.0 M). Under these acidic, aqueous solution conditions, cobalt-60 gamma irradiation afforded negligible net change in the steady-state oxidation state distribution of Pu(IV). Multi-scale calculations, which are in excellent agreement with experimental data, indicate that this observation is due to radiation-induced redox cycling between Pu(IV) and Pu(III), as achieved by the reduction of Pu(IV) by radiolytic nitrous acid and hydrogen peroxide, and the oxidation of Pu(III) by nitrate and hydroxyl radicals. These radiation-induced redox processes are augmented by plutonium’s inherent disproportionation reactions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2024

Measurement of inclusive and differential cross sections for W + W − production in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV

Measurements at $\sqrt{s} = 13$ TeV of the opposite-sign W boson pair production cross section in proton-proton collisions are presented. The data used in this study were collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC in 2022, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 34.8 fb -1 . Events are selected by requiring one electron and one muon of opposite charge. A maximum likelihood fit is performed on signal- and background-enriched data categories defined by the flavor and charge of the leptons, the number of jets, and number of jets originating from b quarks. The overall sensitivity is significantly better than that of previous results with a similar integrated luminosity. The improvement comes from a more refined control of experimental uncertainties and an improved fit strategy. An inclusive W + W - production cross section of 125.7 ± 5.6 pb is measured, in agreement with standard model predictions. Cross sections are also reported in a fiducial region close to that of the detector acceptance, both inclusively and differentially, as a function of the jet multiplicity in the event. For the first time in proton-proton collisions, WW events with zero, one, and at least two jets are studied simultaneously and compared with recent theoretical predictions.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Large area transparent refractory aerogels with high solar thermal performance

Application of transparent silica aerogels in low-temperature solar thermal systems has led to major improvements in performance. In high temperature concentrating solar thermal (CST) systems, aerogels have yet to demonstrate the necessary scalability, durability, and performance to support their widespread deployment. Here, large-area transparent refractory aerogel tiles are synthesized and shown to achieve a record-high receiver figure-of-merit (FOM) at high temperatures. The work leverages a scaled-up process for sol–gel synthesis to control the density of the aerogels for improved solar transmittance and adapts a previous atomic layer deposition (ALD) technique with the aid of predictive reaction-transport modeling. After aging for 10 days at 700 °C, the large-area tiles exhibit a solar-weighted transmittance of 95.6 % and a thermal emittance of 0.31, corresponding to a FOM of 80 % at 100 suns and 700 °C. The observed sintering rates at 700 °C are comparably low to earlier one-inch aerogels, suggesting long-term stability under relevant operating conditions. Furthermore, the study indicates that refractory aerogels are scalable materials for efficient photothermal conversion at high temperatures.

Aerogels↗

DOE OSTI2025

Comparing Constant and Transient Membrane Transport Parameters for Use in Wave Desalination Models

Directly pressurizing seawater for desalination with reverse osmosis membranes via wave motion is a promising and sustainable method for producing freshwater in coastal regions. However, such a system could result in significant pressure fluctuations and a departure from conventional steady-state desalination operations. This study sought to assess if membrane transport parameters (apparent water and salt permeability) should be modeled as transient or constant in solution–diffusion-based modeling efforts of dynamically operated desalination systems, such as those coupled to wave power. Two approaches were used to model membrane transport parameters: one considered each parameter to be a function of the net driving pressure of the system, and the other assumed they were constant across all conditions. A pilot-scale system was used to conduct steady-state and controlled ramping experiments. Data from steady-state experiments were used to calculate transient and constant transport parameters. Parameter combinations were used in a simulation model to predict water flux and effective permeate salinity, and simulation outcomes were compared against experimental ramping results. The transient relationships for both water and salt permeability produced the most accurate results for water flux and comparable results for effective permeate salinity. Development of such relationships would be unique to a specific system but could be valuable in modeling wave-driven desalination systems across the wide range of operating conditions they experience.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Focused Ion Beam Tomography of Alloy 617 Corroded in Molten Chloride Salt

Materials qualification of reactor structural materials is a critical step in rapid implementation of advanced nuclear reactor technologies, particularly to assess the corrosion performance in these designs. Accelerated qualification of reactor structural materials requires incorporating powerful computational toolsets, such as phase field modelling in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, to predict the evolution of structural materials due to corrosion. Accordingly, computational toolsets will require experimental data generated at appropriate length scales to validate accuracy. Focused ion beam (FIB) provides a high degree of control over manipulation of materials for analytical purposes, including capturing data on the evolution in the microstructure and elemental composition of materials at the mesoscale, an appropriate length scale for phase field modelling of intergranular diffusion phenomena using the MOOSE framework. For instance, the FEI Helios G4 UX dual beam plasma FIB microscope at the Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory (IMCL) is capable of backscatter diffraction (EBSD) and energy-dispersive x-ray spectroscopy (EDS) documenting the evolution in the microstructure and elemental composition, respectively. The Helios can perform EDS and EBSD three-dimensionally (3D) using tomography, which is then combined using different software packages to visualize 3D volumes correlating elemental composition to microstructural data. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a streamlined characterization and data processing workflow for 3D tomography studies on the FEI Helios G4 plasma FIB. The investigation is segmented into three parts: 1) Optimizing the data collection workflow, 2) identifying appropriate data processing and visualization software (i.e. DREAM.3D, MIPAR, and VGStudioMax), and 3) establishing an infrastructure for public release. The optimization of the data collection workflow is in collaboration with members of the U220 department to setup formal training on the tomography operation of the G4, through ThermoFisher Scientific, and exploring DREAM.3D, MIPAR, and VGStudioMax data processing/visualization software packages. VGStudioMax currently demonstrates the most promise for future use. Optimization of the data collection and processing workflow is still ongoing. A collaboration with INL High Performance Computing (HPC) established an open-source license for expediting the public release of FIB tomography datasets through HPC. FIB tomography data generated by the G4 will provide comprehensive data for validating 3D phase field mesoscale modelling tools within the MOOSE framework for accelerated qualification of reactor structural materials.

Copeland-Johnson, Trishelle↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automated and High-Throughput Phase Separation Control for Supramolecular Polymer Blends Enabled by Machine Learning

Supramolecular polymer blends (SPBs) offer tunable morphologies that dictate their macroscopic properties, yet their rational design is limited by the absence of predictive structure−morphology models. Here, we introduce a data-driven highthroughput workflow that integrates modular polymer synthesis, robotic formulation, automated morphology characterization, and machine learning (ML) for accelerated SPB discovery. Using a plug-and-play synthetic strategy, 33 hydrogen-bonding endfunctional homopolymers were prepared and orthogonally combined to generate 260 SPBs in 1 day. A fully automated atomic force microscopy (AFM) pipeline enabled systematic imaging, producing 2340 morphology data sets with minimal human intervention. Domain spacings were extracted through complementary imageprocessing methods and used to train ML models. A support vector regression (SVR) model accurately predicted target phase-separation sizes (50, 100, and 150 nm), which were experimentally validated. This work demonstrates the power of coupling high-throughput experimentation with ML to accelerate morphology discovery and provides one of the first large-scale experimental data sets for supramolecular polymer systems.

ML-guided polymer design↗

DOE OSTI2024

Controlling cantilevered adaptive X-ray mirrors

Modeling the behavior of a prototype cantilevered X-ray adaptive mirror (held from one end) demonstrates its potential for use on high-performance X-ray beamlines. Similar adaptive mirrors are used on X-ray beamlines to compensate optical aberrations, control wavefronts and tune mirror focal distances at will. Controlled by 1D arrays of piezoceramic actuators, these glancing-incidence mirrors can provide nanometre-scale surface shape adjustment capabilities. However, significant engineering challenges remain for mounting them with low distortion and low environmental sensitivity. Finite-element analysis is used to predict the micron-scale full actuation surface shape from each channel and then linear modeling is applied to investigate the mirrors' ability to reach target profiles. Using either uniform or arbitrary spatial weighting, actuator voltages are optimized using a Moore–Penrose matrix inverse, or pseudoinverse, revealing a spatial dependence on the shape fitting with increasing fidelity farther from the mount.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Scientific Discovery with Physics-Informed System Identification (Abbreviated Report)

My fellowship research focused on making physics-based simulations faster and more useful through machine learning. Many problems in science and engineering are governed by partial differential equations, but high-fidelity simulations are often too expensive to run repeatedly. I worked on improving Latent Space Dynamics Identification (LaSDI), a reduced-order modeling framework that compresses large simulation data sets into a smaller representation and then learns how that representation evolves over time. The motivation was to develop reduced models that remain accurate for more challenging systems, especially when predictions must remain reliable over long time intervals or when the underlying dynamics are more complicated than standard methods can easily handle. I also contributed to related work on Quandary, a high-performance software effort for simulation and control of open quantum systems, before focusing primarily on Latent Space Dynamics Identification methods. The main outcomes of the fellowship were two new algorithms (both of which were published), Rollout-LaSDI and Higher-Order LaSDI, together with supporting work on multi-stage Latent Space Dynamics Identification. Rollout-LaSDI improved long-term prediction by training the model to stay accurate over extended time horizons, and Higher-Order LaSDI broadened the method so it could model systems with higher-order time dynamics. My contributions to multistage Latent Space Dynamics Identification also helped show that its later training stages could be simplified without losing effectiveness, and that this behavior held across different model architectures and training strategies. Taken together, these advances improved the accuracy, flexibility, and practical value of reduced-order modeling tools for computational science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cloud radiative effects significantly increase wintertime atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic sector

Reliable simulation, prediction, and complete theoretical understanding of atmospheric blocking remain challenging despite its significant socio-economic impacts. Generations of climate models have notoriously underestimated blocking frequency, particularly over the Euro-Atlantic sector. Identifying factors controlling blocking frequency and dynamics is therefore essential for improving its simulation. Here, using a cloud-locking experiment, we show that cloud radiative effects (CREs) significantly increase the frequency of Euro-Atlantic blocking. CREs enhance upstream diabatic source of wave activity, both directly through longwave heating and indirectly through their feedback on latent heating, with the latter playing the dominant role. The resulting increase in the upstream diabatic source feeds into local wave activity downstream and promotes blocking formation. Qualitatively similar results are shown by multi-model experiments with radiatively inactive clouds to longwave radiation, albeit with a larger impact from mean-state changes. The results underscore the necessity of accurately representing cloud-radiation interactions in weather and climate models for improved prediction of blocking events.

Atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗