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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Application of Model Based Parameter Estimation for Fast Frequency Response Calculations of Input Characteristics of Cavity-Backed Aperture Antennas Using Hybrid FEM/MoM Technique

Model Based Parameter Estimation (MBPE) is presented in conjunction with the hybrid Finite Element Method (FEM)/Method of Moments (MoM) technique for fast computation of the input characteristics of cavity-backed aperture antennas over a frequency range. The hybrid FENI/MoM technique is used to form an integro-partial- differential equation to compute the electric field distribution of a cavity-backed aperture antenna. In MBPE, the electric field is expanded in a rational function of two polynomials. The coefficients of the rational function are obtained using the frequency derivatives of the integro-partial-differential equation formed by the hybrid FEM/ MoM technique. Using the rational function approximation, the electric field is obtained over a frequency range. Using the electric field at different frequencies, the input characteristics of the antenna are obtained over a wide frequency range. Numerical results for an open coaxial line, probe-fed coaxial cavity and cavity-backed microstrip patch antennas are presented. Good agreement between MBPE and the solutions over individual frequencies is observed.

Reddy C. J.↗

Exploring experimental conditions to reduce uncertainties in the optical potential

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear theories has gained a more prominent role in the field, with more groups attempting to understand the uncertainties in their calculations. However, recent studies have shown that the uncertainties on the optical potentials are too large for the theory to be useful. The goal of this work is to explore possible experimental conditions that may reduce the uncertainties on elastic scattering and single-nucleon transfer cross sections that come from the fitting of the optical model parameters to experimental data. Using Bayesian methods, we explore the effect of the uncertainties of optical model parameters on the angular grid of the differential cross section, including cross-section data at nearby energies, and changes in the experimental error bars. We also study the effect on the resulting uncertainty when other observables are included in the fitting procedure, particularly the total (reaction) cross sections. We study proton and neutron elastic scattering on 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We explore the parameter space with the Markov-chain Monte Carlo method, produce posterior distributions for the optical model parameters, and construct the corresponding 95% confidence intervals on the elastic-scattering cross sections. We also propagate the uncertainties on the optical potentials to the 48 Ca(d,p) 49 Ca(g.s.) and 208 Pb(d,p) 209 Pb(g.s.) cross sections. We find little sensitivity to the angular grid and an improvement of up to a factor of 2 on the uncertainties by including data at a nearby energy. Although reducing the error bars on the data does reduce the uncertainty, the gain is often considerably smaller than one would naively expect. We also find that the inclusion of total reaction cross section can improve the uncertainty although the magnitude of the effect depends strongly on the cases considered.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Effects of Eye Measures on Human Controller Remnant and Control Behavior

The aim of the current research was to investigate the possible relation between changes in eye activity parameters, variations in human remnant at the perceptual level and changes in human operator model parameters. Fourteen subjects performed a pitch tracking task, in which the display brightness was varied by changing the background color around a simplified primary flight display, in order to create a controlled, quasilinear change in the pupil diameter through the pupillary light reflex. Pupil diameter, blink, eye opening, and opening and closing amplitudes and speeds were recorded using an eye tracker. Participants controlled single integrator-like and double integrator-like dynamics. The variation in pupil diameter did not introduce significant differences in neither remnant characteristics nor the human operator model parameters. An interesting effect occurred in the human controller’s time delay for the single integrator task, where the time delay was significantly higher for the darkest brightness compared to the other levels of brightness. This effect was not observed for the double integrator dynamics. Data suggested that the more difficult controlled dynamics induced a squinting effect, visible in smaller eye opening, and smaller eye opening and closing amplitudes. These results suggest that performance, and control behavior are invariant to the display brightness. Moreover, monitoring changes in the eye activity could represent a method of predicting variations in human remnant characteristics and human controller model parameters, introduced by task difficulty.

Eye tracking↗

Long-term measurements in a mixed-grass prairie reveal a change in soil organic carbon recalcitrance and its environmental sensitivity under warming

Soil respiration, the major pathway for ecosystem carbon (C) loss, has the potential to enter a positive feedback loop with the atmospheric CO2 due to climate warming. For reliable projections of climate-carbon feedbacks, accurate quantification of soil respiration and identification of mechanisms that control its variability are essential. Process-based models simulate soil respiration as functions of belowground C input, organic matter quality, and sensitivity to environmental conditions. However, evaluation and calibration of process-based models against the long-term in situ measurements are rare. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model in simulating total and heterotrophic soil respiration measured during a 16-year warming experiment in a mixed-grass prairie; calibrate model parameters against these and other measurements collected during the experiment; and explore whether the mechanisms of C dynamics have changed over the years. Calibrating model parameters against observations of individual years substantially improved model performance in comparison to pre-calibration simulations, explaining 79–86% of variability in observed soil respiration. Interannual variation of the calibrated model parameters indicated increasing recalcitrance of soil C and changing environmental sensitivity of microbes. Overall, we found that (1) soil organic C became more recalcitrant in intact soil compared to root-free soil; (2) warming offset the effects of increasing C recalcitrance in intact soil and changed microbial sensitivity to moisture conditions. Furthermore, these findings indicate that soil respiration may decrease in the future due to C quality, but this decrease may be offset by warming-induced changes in C cycling mechanisms and their responses to moisture conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quasi-Static and Dynamic Analysis of Composite Panels: Characterization and Validation

The predictive capability of a progressive damage model to simulate the quasi-static and dynamic crushing of composite specimens is evaluated in this article. The material model is commercially available within the ABAQUS finite element software package, i.e., “Damage for Fiber reinforced Composites”, and is often utilized to simulate damage progression and failure in static and dynamic failure scenarios such as crushing of a composite plate. The composite specimens used in this study consist of quasi-isotropic C-shaped and corrugated composite panels comprised of carbon fiber/epoxy braided fabric. The C-shaped panel specimen is used to calibrate the model and optimize material/model properties through comparison with experimental results. Then, using the same model parameters, the quasi-static crush response of the corrugated panel is predicted. The predictive capability of the model is further demonstrated by simulating the dynamic crushing response of both C-shaped and corrugated panels using the same material properties as in the quasi-static crush case with only minor adjustments for the dynamic elastic properties (i.e., rate dependent modulus). Results show that the in-built material model available in ABAQUS can successfully reproduce experimental results for both panels (C-shaped and corrugated) subjected to both quasi-static and dynamic loading scenarios. A small-scale parametric study on physical (experimentally measurable) and nonphysical (purely mathematical) model parameters was also conducted. It can be concluded that, achieving successful simulation results requires a more in-depth understanding of the influence of model parameter variation on the mechanical response of the composite together with the strategies and challenges of the utilized modeling methodology (e.g., FEA mesh density, etc.).

Naghipour Ghezeljeh, Paria↗

Preliminary Results on Bayesian Inverse UQ for OECD/NEA WPNCS Subgroup 14 Benchmark Exercise for Error Recovery and Experimental Coverage

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Working Party on Nucelar Criticality Safety (WPNCS) has proposed a benchmark exercise representative of neutronic behavior in criticality experiments. Here, the goal is to develop confidence in data assimilation techniques used to adjust nuclear data. Participants are given synthetic experimental models with associated measured data and asked to estimate the model parameters given the model and measurements as well as provide predictions for separate application models. In this work, we performed data assimilation using Bayesian inverse Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) with machine learning surrogate models to produce posterior parameter distributions for the requested parameters and posterior predictive distributions for the requested responses. Several experimental models are shown to insufficiently inform the posterior parameter distributions for the applications involved. However, given sufficient experimental data, posterior parameter estimates yielded reduced uncertainty in the response predictions of interest while covering the experimental data.

Bayesian Inference↗

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large Photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis, and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model, future test plans, and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Smith, Bryan K.↗

Solar array electrical performance assessment for Space Station Freedom

Electrical power for Space Station Freedom will be generated by large photovoltaic arrays with a beginning of life power requirement of 30.8 kW per array. The solar arrays will operate in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) over a design life of fifteen years. This paper provides an analysis of the predicted solar array electrical performance over the design life and presents a summary of supporting analysis and test data for the assigned model parameters and performance loss factors. Each model parameter and loss factor is assessed based upon program requirements, component analysis and test data to date. A description of the LMSC performance model future test plans and predicted performance ranges are also given.

Smith, Bryan K.↗

A Numerical Method for Calculating Stellar Occultation Light Curves from an Arbitrary Atmospheric Model

We present a method for speeding up numerical calculations of a light curve for a stellar occultation by a planetary atmosphere with an arbitrary atmospheric model that has spherical symmetry. This improved speed makes least-squares fitting for model parameters practical. Our method takes as input several sets of values for the first two radial derivatives of the refractivity at different values of model parameters, and interpolates to obtain the light curve at intermediate values of one or more model parameters. It was developed for small occulting bodies such as Pluto and Triton, but is applicable to planets of all sizes. We also present the results of a series of tests showing that our method calculates light curves that are correct to an accuracy of 10(exp -4) of the unocculted stellar flux. The test benchmarks are (i) an atmosphere with a l/r dependence of temperature, which yields an analytic solution for the light curve, (ii) an atmosphere that produces an exponential refraction angle, and (iii) a small-planet isothermal model. With our method, least-squares fits to noiseless data also converge to values of parameters with fractional errors of no more than 10(exp -4), with the largest errors occurring in small planets. These errors are well below the precision of the best stellar occultation data available. Fits to noisy data had formal errors consistent with the level of synthetic noise added to the light curve. We conclude: (i) one should interpolate refractivity derivatives and then form light curves from the interpolated values, rather than interpolating the light curves themselves; (ii) for the most accuracy, one must specify the atmospheric model for radii many scale heights above half light; and (iii) for atmospheres with smoothly varying refractivity with altitude, light curves can be sampled as coarsely as two points per scale height.

Chamberlain, D. M.↗

Observational constraints on an embedded cloud model for the soft X-ray diffuse background

The reason for the observed anticorrelation between soft X-ray diffuse background (SXRB) and neutral hydrogen column densities are considered. Using the B and C band data from an all-sky survey of the SXRB, as well as data in the Be band, it is shown that the Jakobsen and Kahn (1986) embedded cloud model, in which several statistical properties of the SXRB in the B and C bands were used to constrain their model parameters, cannot fit the observed band ratios, except in the limit in which virtually all of the emission originates in the near side of the absorbing gas. It was also shown that model parameters corresponding to appreciably mixed emission and absorption, as proposed by Bunner et al. (1969) and Davidsen et al. (1972), do not fit the data. Model parameters corresponding to the absorption models of Bowyer et al. (1968), Bunner et al. (1969), Davidsen et al. (1972), and Yentis et al. (1972), cannot fit the data unless the absorbing material is more strongly clumped than is permitted by 21-cm observations.

Burrows, D. N.↗

Learning robust parameter inference and density reconstruction in flyer plate impact experiments

Estimating physical parameters or material properties from experimental observations is a common objective in many areas of physics and material science. In many experiments, especially in shock physics, radiography is the primary means of observing the system of interest. However, radiography does not provide direct access to key state variables, such as density, which prevents the application of traditional parameter estimation approaches. Here we focus on flyer plate impact experiments on porous materials, and resolving the underlying parameterized equation of state (EoS) and crush porosity model parameters given radiographic observation(s). We use machine learning as a tool to demonstrate with high confidence that using only high impact velocity data does not provide sufficient information to accurately infer both EoS and crush model parameters, even with fully resolved density fields or a dynamic sequence of images. We thus propose an observable data set consisting of low and high impact velocity experiments/simulations that capture different regimes of compaction and shock propagation, and proceed to introduce a generative machine learning approach which produces a posterior distribution of physical parameters directly from radiographs. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach in estimating parameters from simulated flyer plate impact experiments, and show that the obtained estimates of EoS and crush model parameters can then be used in hydrodynamic simulations to obtain accurate and physically admissible density reconstructions. Finally, we examine the robustness of the approach to model mismatches, and find that the learned approach can provide useful parameter estimates in the presence of out-of-distribution radiographic noise and previously unseen physics, thereby promoting a potential breakthrough in estimating material properties from experimental radiographic images.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-Driven Linear Parameter-Varying Modeling and Control of Flexible Loads for Grid Services: Preprint

Flexible loads have great potential to improve the power grid's flexibility and stability. To effectively control large ensembles of heterogeneous loads, reliable models thereof are required. The paper presents a data-driven modeling and control approach to manage flexible loads for providing grid services. We leverage a linear parameter-varying autoregressive moving average (LPV-ARMA) model to describe the aggregate load response, where the parameters in the model are used to capture external environment impacts (e.g., weather). A gain-scheduling feedback controller is then developed to adapt to environmental variations. This data-driven approach can be easily applied to different types of loads in various environmental conditions. In addition to the ensemble controller, distributed load controllers are designed to deliver grid services, while maintaining the quality of service of inherent load tasks. We demonstrate the work on the IEEE 37-node distribution system for real-time power regulation services through control of thermostatically controlled loads.

control↗

Adaptive tracking for complex systems using reduced-order models

Reduced-order models are considered in the context of parameter adaptive controllers for tracking workspace trajectories. A dual-arm manipulation task is used to illustrate the methodology and provide simulation results. A parameter adaptive controller is designed to track the desired position trajectory of a payload using a four-parameter model instead of a full-order, nine-parameter model. Several simulations with different payload-to-arm mass ratios are used to illustrate the capabilities of the reduced-order model in tracking the desired trajectory.

Carignan, Craig R.↗

Adaptive tracking for complex systems using reduced-order models

Reduced-order models are considered in the context of parameter adaptive controllers for tracking workspace trajectories. A dual-arm manipulation task is used to illustrate the methodology and provide simulation results. A parameter adaptive controller is designed to track a payload trajectory using a four-parameter model instead of the full-order, nine-parameter model. Several simulations with different payload-to-arm mass ratios are used to illustrate the capabilities of the reduced-order model in tracking the desired trajectory.

Carnigan, Craig R.↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Zirconium Redistribution in BISON EBR-II Models Using FIPD and IMIS Databases with Experimental Post Irradiation Examination

Metallic fuels have seen increased interest for future sodium fast reactors due to their material properties: high thermal conductivities and advantageous neutronic properties allow for greater fission densities. One drawback to typical metallic fuels is zirconium redistribution, which impacts this advantageous material and its neutronic properties. Unfortunately, the processes behind zirconium migration behavior are understood using first principles, so before these fuels are implemented in future fast reactors, characterization and fuel qualification regimes must be completed. These activities can be supported through the use of robust modeling using the most accurate empirical models currently available to fuel researchers around the world. The tool that allows researchers to model this complex coupled thermo-mechanical behavior and nuclear properties is BISON. Additionally, BISON model parameters need to be compared against PIE measurements. The current work utilizes two fuel pins from EBR-II experiment X441 to optimize various model parameters, including porosity correction factor, thermal conductivity, phase transition temperature, and diffusion coefficient multipliers, before implementing the final model for seven fuel pins with differing characteristics. To properly evaluate the BISON simulations, the results are compared to PIE metallography data for each fuel pin, to ensure the zirconium redistribution is properly reflected in the simulation results. Six out of seven analyzed fuel pins demonstrate good agreement between the metallography images and BISON results, showing alignment of the Zr-rich, Zr-depleted, and moderately Zr-enriched zones at various axial heights along the fuel pins. Further work is needed to refine the model parameters for general pin use.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Combined structures-controls optimization of lattice trusses

The role that distributed parameter model can play in CSI is demonstrated, in particular in combined structures controls optimization problems of importance in preliminary design. Closed form solutions can be obtained for performance criteria such as rms attitude error, making possible analytical solutions of the optimization problem. This is in contrast to the need for numerical computer solution involving the inversion of large matrices in traditional finite element model (FEM) use. Another advantage of the analytic solution is that it can provide much needed insight into phenomena that can otherwise be obscured or difficult to discern from numerical computer results. As a compromise in level of complexity between a toy lab model and a real space structure, the lattice truss used in the EPS (Earth Pointing Satellite) was chosen. The optimization problem chosen is a generic one: of minimizing the structure mass subject to a specified stability margin and to a specified upper bond on the rms attitude error, using a co-located controller and sensors. Standard FEM treating each bar as a truss element is used, while the continuum model is anisotropic Timoshenko beam model. Performance criteria are derived for each model, except that for the distributed parameter model, explicit closed form solutions was obtained. Numerical results obtained by the two model show complete agreement.

Balakrishnan, A. V.↗