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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox–PSTess (V1.0)

This document describes the Power and Energy Storage Systems Toolbox for MATLAB, abbreviated as PSTess. This computing package is a fork of the Power Systems Toolbox (PST). PST was originally developed at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) and later upgraded by Dr. Graham Rogers at Cherry Tree Scientific Software. While PSTess shares a common lineage with PST Version 3.0, it is a substantially different application. This document supplements the main PST manual by describing the features and models that are unique to PSTess. As the name implies, the main distinguishing characteristic of PSTess is its ability to model inverter-based energy storage systems (ESS). The model that enables this is called ess.m , and it serves the dual role of representing ESS operational constraints and the generator/converter interface. As in the WECC REGC_A model, the generator/converter interface is modeled as a controllable current source with the ability to modulate both real and reactive current. The model ess.m permits four-quadrant modulation, which allows it to represent a wide variety of inverter-based resources beyond energy storage when paired with an appropriate supplemental control model. Examples include utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) power plants, Type 4 wind plants, and static synchronous compensators (STATCOM). This capability is especially useful for modeling hybrid plants that combine energy storage with renewable resources or FACTS devices.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Development of the Next Generation Gas Trap for the Space Station Internal Thermal Control System

The current dual-membrane gas trap is designed to remove non-condensed gases (NCG) from the Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) coolant on board the International Space Station (ISS). To date it has successfully served its purpose of preventing depriming, overspeed, and shutdown of the ITCS pump. However, contamination in the ITCS coolant has adversely affected the gas venting rate and lifetime of the gas trap, warranting a development effort for a next-generation gas trap. Design goals are to meet or exceed the current requirements to (1) include greater operating ranges and conditions, (2) eliminate reliance on the current hydrophilic tube fabrication process, and (3) increase operational life and tolerance to particulate and microbial growth fouling. In addition, the next generation gas trap will essentially be a 'dropin" design such that no modifications to the ITCS pump package assembly (PPA) will be required, and the implementation of the new design will not affect changes to the ITCS operational conditions, interfaces, or software. This paper will present the initial membrane module design and development work which has included (1) a trade study among several conceptual designs, (2) performance modeling of a hydrophobic-only design, and (3) small-scale development test data for the hydrophobic-only design. Testing has shown that the hydrophobic-only design is capable of performing even better than the current dual-membrane design for both steady-state gas removal and gas slug removal.

Leimkuehler, Thomas O.↗
NASA NTRS2000

The Impact of ENSO on Extratropical Low Frequency Noise in Seasonal Forecasts

This study examines the uncertainty in forecasts of the January-February-March (JFM) mean extratropical circulation, and how that uncertainty is modulated by the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The analysis is based on ensembles of hindcasts made with an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperatures observed during; the 1983 El Nino and 1989 La Nina events. The AGCM produces pronounced interannual differences in the magnitude of the extratropical seasonal mean noise (intra-ensemble variability). The North Pacific, in particular, shows extensive regions where the 1989 seasonal mean noise kinetic energy (SKE), which is dominated by a "PNA-like" spatial structure, is more than twice that of the 1983 forecasts. The larger SKE in 1989 is associated with a larger than normal barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the mean Pacific jet to the seasonal mean noise. The generation of SKE due to sub-monthly transients also shows substantial interannual differences, though these are much smaller than the differences in the mean flow conversions. An analysis of the Generation of monthly mean noise kinetic energy (NIKE) and its variability suggests that the seasonal mean noise is predominantly a statistical residue of variability resulting from dynamical processes operating on monthly and shorter times scales. A stochastically-forced barotropic model (linearized about the AGCM's 1983 and 1989 base states) is used to further assess the role of the basic state, submonthly transients, and tropical forcing, in modulating the uncertainties in the seasonal AGCM forecasts. When forced globally with spatially-white noise, the linear model generates much larger variance for the 1989 base state, consistent with the AGCM results. The extratropical variability for the 1989 base state is dominanted by a single eigenmode, and is strongly coupled with forcing over tropical western Pacific and the Indian Ocean, again consistent with the AGCM results. Linear calculations that include forcing from the AGCM variance of the tropical forcing and submonthly transients show a small impact on the variability over the Pacific/North American region compared with that of the base state differences.

Schubert, Siegfried D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

NASA’s near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC’s Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA’s CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.

Hong Q. Yang↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Validation of Cryogenic Propellant Tank Self-Pressurization

NASA's near-future long-term space missions necessitate advancements in cryogenic fluid management (CFM), which includes safe and reliable long-term propellant storage. Consequently, NASA STMD (Space Technology Mission Directorate) has established the CFM Portfolio Project to improve CFM technologies for upcoming missions. As a part of CFM Modeling Portfolio, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center's (MSFC) Fluid Dynamics branch within the Propulsion Systems Department is tasked with assessing and improving computational tools used to support flight projects such as Human Lander System and Commercial Lunar Payload Services. One of the challenging modeling problems is that of self-pressurization of propellant tank due to heat leakage over long time periods. Reduced order and nodal tools find it extremely difficult to accurately predict self-pressurization under transient conditions or where complex flow patterns or thermal gradients exist, and application of 3-D CFD (computational fluid dynamics) simulations is necessary to characterize these problems. Until recently, CFD simulations for these long-term processes (order of hours or days) have been too impractical to conduct due to prohibitive wall time and computational resource requirements. The requisite CFD tool need to be efficient, computationally scalable, modular with ability to incorporate various physics models, and robust enough to not accumulate conservation errors over several hours of simulated time. NASA MSFC's Loci-Stream CFD tool along with the VOF module is a great candidate to fit this mold. In this paper, we validate Loci-Stream for predicting self-pressurization of a flight scale propellant tank so it can serve as a reliable design and analysis tool for NASA's CFM application needs. Liquid hydrogen tank pressurization tests carried out at the K-site testing facility provide a reliable data set for this purpose. These tests were simulated using Loci-Stream solver with VOF module as well as a hybrid approach which uses a lumped model for the ullage gas domain and CFD simulation of the liquid propellant. Both are shown to have very good predictive capabilities over multiple K-site experiments.

cryogenic fluid management↗
NASA NTRS1975

Main memory unit

The development of a main memory unit (MMU) for the space ultrareliable module computer (SUMC) model HTC is discussed. The design, fabrication, and test of basic memory modules (BMM) which were to be used in the design and construction of the MMU are described. The BMM was designed from state-of-the-art technologies which included large scale integration devices mounted and interconnected on a substrate to form a functional module to be utilized in the MMU development. A SUMC memory system design study is discussed which addressed itself to the BMM design and analysis to be conducted to determine the most efficient organization of the BMM in order to establish such modularity features as: word length expandability without redesign, high reliability, and fault tolerance. One MMU was designed, fabricated, tested, and delivered which will be electrical and mechanically compatible with the hybrid technology computer (HTC) model of the SUMC family of computers. The MMU will contain a storage capacity of 8196 36 bit words which includes a parity bit for each 8 bit byte of data.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2019

High-Resolution Tropical Channel Model Simulations of Tropical Cyclone Climatology and Intraseasonal-to-Interannual Variability

We tailored a tropical channel configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to study tropical cyclone (TC) activity and associated climate variabilities. This tropical channel model (TCM) covers from 30°S to 50°N at 27-km horizontal resolution, with physics parameterizations carefully selected to achieve more realistic simulations of TCs and large-scale climate mean states. In this work we performed 15-member ensembles of retrospective simulations from 1982 to 2016 hurricane seasons. A thorough comparison with observations demonstrates that the TCM yields significant skills in simulating TC activity climatology and variabilities in each basin, as well as TC physical structures. The correlation of the ensemble averaged accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with observations in the western North Pacific (WNP), eastern North Pacific (ENP), and North Atlantic (NAT) is 0.80, 0.64, and 0.61, respectively, but is insignificant in the north Indian Ocean (NIO). Moreover, the TCM-simulated modulations of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the large-scale environment and TC genesis also agree well with observations. To examine the TCM’s potential for seasonal TC prediction, the model is used to forecast the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons, using bias-corrected sea surface temperatures (SSTs) from the CFSv2 seasonal prediction results. The TCM accurately predicts the hyperactive 2017 NAT hurricane season and near-normal WNP and ENP hurricane seasons when initialized in May. In addition, the TCM accurately predicts TC activity in the NAT and WNP during the 2018 season, but underpredicts ENP TC activity, in association with a poor ENSO forecast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Automated array assembly, phase 2

Tasks of scaling up the tandem junction cell (TJC) from 2 cm x 2 cm to 6.2 cm and the assembly of several modules using these large area TJC's are described. The scale-up of the TJC was based on using the existing process and doing the necessary design activities to increase the cell area to an acceptably large area. The design was carried out using available device models. The design was verified and sample large area TJCs were fabricated. Mechanical and process problems occurred causing a schedule slippage that resulted in contract expiration before enough large-area TJCs were fabricated to populate the sample tandem junction modules (TJM). A TJM design was carried out in which the module interconnects served to augment the current collecting buses on the cell. No sample TJMs were assembled due to a shortage of large-area TJCs.

Carbajal, B. G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

DVMDOSTEM v0.8.3: a terrestrial ecosystem model designed to represent arctic, boreal and permafrost ecosystem dynamics

The impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems are the result of complex physical and ecological processes operating and interacting at a variety of spatio-temporal scales, that can be represented in process-based ecosystem models. DVMDOSTEM is an advanced process-based terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM) designed to study ecosystem responses to climate changes and disturbances. It has a particular focus on permafrost regions (i.e. regions characterized by soils that stay partially frozen all year round for at least two consecutive years), encompassing boreal, arctic, and alpine landscapes. The model couples two previous versions of the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM) (McGuire et al., 1992): DVMTEM that includes a dynamic vegetation module (DVM) (E. S. Euskirchen et al., 2009), and DOSTEM that includes a dynamic organic soil module (DOS) (H. Genet et al., 2013; Yi et al., 2010). DVMDOSTEM simulates processes at yearly and monthly scales, with some physical processes operating at an even finer temporal resolution. Its versatility allows for site-specific to regional simulations, making it valuable for predicting shifts in permafrost, vegetation, and carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics. While DVMDOSTEM has been described in the methods sections of many manuscripts, this paper is the first stand alone description of DVMDOSTEM, independent of a particular scientific investigation.

Carman, Tobey B. [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Network of Surface Pressure Observations to Constrain Aerosol Forcing in Mars Climate Models

The evolving distribution of radiatively active dust and water ice clouds plays a major role in modulating the seasonal and interannual variation in the thermal forcing of the Martian atmosphere. Thermal tides are the global-scale atmospheric response to the diurnally varying thermal forcing due to aerosol heating within the atmosphere and radiative and convective heat transfer from the surface. The tide includes westward propagating (sun-synchronous) waves driven in response to solar heating, as well as nonmigrating waves that result from zonal variations in the thermotidal forcing caused by variations in topography and surface thermal properties and in the distribution of aerosols (dust and water ice clouds).

R. J. Wilson↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards Plume Impingement Modeling in Space Environments

After 30 years human presence in low-earth orbit, NASA is returning to the moon and eventually will go to Mars. To this end, NASA is constructing the Lunar Gateway, an ISS-like space station to act as a home base for Lunar exploration. A large space station must be assembled while in orbit, using a “piecemeal” approach. In this context, it means that the different modules will arrive at different times and attach to what is already in service. The ISS provides an excellent example of this approach, and the proposed Lunar Gateway will undergo a similar assembly process. This assembly is achieved via “docking” maneuvers between modules, which are made possible by sequential firings of the onboard reaction control system (RCS) thrusters. They work by firing hot gases to produce adverse thrust and the needed change in velocity to safely finish the docking approach. The issue is that the gas from these thrusters' forms flow structures described as “plumes” and can impinge onto the outer surfaces of the space station, causing unwanted forces and moments, heat loads, sediment deposition, and in extreme cases, even surface erosion. All mechanisms that can damage the space station and must be avoided. Both permanent and visiting modules will have these RCS thruster exhaust impingement problems. Accurately and efficiently modeling these plume is an involved multi-physics calculation but also an important tool when designing the control algorithms of approaching modules. This poster presents progress towards this simulation on two fronts. First is the verification of OpenFOAM for rarefied plume impingement calculations by direct comparison to published DAC cases. Second is the estimation of plume impingement strikes over the time scale of an entire docking event. This is done by using a simple plume source flow model and a prescribed motion visualizer—coded in Python. Together these tools help push NASA's capabilities for simulating these plume impingement effects.

Rarefied Flows↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling biological nitrogen fixation in global natural terrestrial ecosystems

Biological nitrogen fixation plays an important role in the global nitrogen cycle. However, the fixation rate has been usually measured or estimated at a particular observational site. To quantify the fixation amount at the global scale, process-based models are needed. This study develops a biological nitrogen fixation model to quantitatively estimate the nitrogen fixation rate by plants in a natural environment. The revised nitrogen module better simulates the nitrogen cycle in comparison with our previous model that has not considered the fixation effects. The new model estimates that tropical forests have the highest fixation rate among all ecosystem types, which decreases from the Equator to the polar region. The estimated nitrogen fixation in global terrestrial ecosystems is 61.5 Tg N yr-1 with a range of 19.8–107.9 Tg N yr-1 in the 1990s. Our estimates are relatively low compared to some early estimates using empirical approaches but comparable to more recent estimates that involve more detailed processes in their modeling. Furthermore, the contribution of nitrogen made by biological nitrogen fixation depends on ecosystem type and climatic conditions. This study highlights that there are relatively large effects of biological nitrogen fixation on ecosystem nitrogen cycling. and the large uncertainty of the estimation calls for more comprehensive understanding of biological nitrogen fixation. More direct observational data for different ecosystems are in need to improve future quantification of fixation and its impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Numerical Simulation of Rocket Exhaust Interaction with Lunar Soil

This technology development originated from the need to assess the debris threat resulting from soil material erosion induced by landing spacecraft rocket plume impingement on extraterrestrial planetary surfaces. The impact of soil debris was observed to be highly detrimental during NASA s Apollo lunar missions and will pose a threat for any future landings on the Moon, Mars, and other exploration targets. The innovation developed under this program provides a simulation tool that combines modeling of the diverse disciplines of rocket plume impingement gas dynamics, granular soil material liberation, and soil debris particle kinetics into one unified simulation system. The Unified Flow Solver (UFS) developed by CFDRC enabled the efficient, seamless simulation of mixed continuum and rarefied rocket plume flow utilizing a novel direct numerical simulation technique of the Boltzmann gas dynamics equation. The characteristics of the soil granular material response and modeling of the erosion and liberation processes were enabled through novel first principle-based granular mechanics models developed by the University of Florida specifically for the highly irregularly shaped and cohesive lunar regolith material. These tools were integrated into a unique simulation system that accounts for all relevant physics aspects: (1) Modeling of spacecraft rocket plume impingement flow under lunar vacuum environment resulting in a mixed continuum and rarefied flow; (2) Modeling of lunar soil characteristics to capture soil-specific effects of particle size and shape composition, soil layer cohesion and granular flow physics; and (3) Accurate tracking of soil-borne debris particles beginning with aerodynamically driven motion inside the plume to purely ballistic motion in lunar far field conditions. In the earlier project phase of this innovation, the capabilities of the UFS for mixed continuum and rarefied flow situations were validated and demonstrated for lunar lander rocket plume flow impingement under lunar vacuum conditions. Applications and improvements to the granular flow simulation tools contributed by the University of Florida were tested against Earth environment experimental results. Requirements for developing, validating, and demonstrating this solution environment were clearly identified, and an effective second phase execution plan was devised. In this phase, the physics models were refined and fully integrated into a production-oriented simulation tool set. Three-dimensional simulations of Apollo Lunar Excursion Module (LEM) and Altair landers (including full-scale lander geometry) established the practical applicability of the UFS simulation approach and its advanced performance level for large-scale realistic problems.

Liever, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bifacial PV System Performance: Separating Fact from Fiction

The performance of bifacial PV systems depends greatly on the installed conditions. Previous simulations and results have shown very high bifacial gain improvement, but this may not be the case for all conditions, particularly for large-scale systems with self-shading, lower-cost PV modules (PERC) which might have lower bifaciality coefficient, and field deployments over natural ground cover. But not to worry! Financial models indicate that even with these lower performance conditions, and with bifacial gain of 4%-9%, bifacial modules can still provide improved LCOE.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding Bifacial Photovoltaic's Potential

The performance of bifacial PV systems depends greatly on the installed conditions. Previous simulations and results have shown very high bifacial gain improvement, but this may not be the case for all conditions, particularly for large-scale systems with self-shading, lower-cost PV modules (PERC) which might have lower bifaciality coefficient, and field deployments over natural ground cover. But not to worry! Financial models indicate that even with these lower performance conditions, and with bifacial gain of 4%-7%, bifacial modules can still provide improved LCOE.

bifacial↗
DOE OSTI2024

Circular Economy for Photovoltaics in Service of Energy Transition

The challenge of energy transition is immediate and immense; current projections target 75 TW of photovoltaics (PV) capacity by 2050. While any transition to renewable energy technology is preferable to the current fossil-based system, it is ideal to improve the sustainability of PV to minimize negative environmental and social impacts. Circular economy (CE) has been proposed as a method to improve the sustainability of PV, especially for emerging materials like perovskites. CE is a set of actions, principles, and systems which aim to design out waste and keep products and materials in use, to reduce environmental impacts and enable sustainable development. At the most basic level, CE is "reduce, reuse, recycle", the R-actions, in ranked order. CE of a PV technology can be metricized in a variety of ways, such as the Material Circularity Indicator (Smith and Jones, Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2019) or recycling rates. Unfortunately, standard CE metrics have several shortcomings for measuring renewable energy technologies in the context of deployment for energy transition (Figge 2018, Saidani 2019): 1) Only measure mass flows; 2) De-prioritization of the use phase in favor of mass circularity when scoring; and 3) Tight focus on a single product scale The use phase and energy flows of PV are key to energy transition, and therefore need to be quantified. Additionally, correlating product-scale to system-scale is necessary for quantifying the environmental impacts of energy transition. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can address some of these concerns, but also focuses on a single product scale and has trouble capturing the dynamics of system-scale energy transition, such as the interaction of module lifetime with manufacturing demands for energy transition deployment schedules. Therefore, we developed an open-source Python-based system dynamics model to quantify the mass, energy and carbon impacts of CE R-actions for PV technologies in the energy transition; PV in the CE (PV ICE) (Ovaitt & Mirletz 2021). The tool captures supply chains from material extraction through end of life, incorporating 5 circular end of life pathways. PV ICE takes in any evolving bill of materials, module properties and deployment schedule to support researchers and decision makers with data-backed insights. In this work, we quantify and compare proposed CE sustainable PV module designs and lifecycle management strategies, spanning currently commercialized technologies, government and industry technology targets, and several low Technology Readiness Level (TRL) emerging PV technologies, including perovskites. Our analyses capture the projected evolutions of lifetime, efficiency and material circularity of these PV technologies, as well as their material supply chains. Our analyses emphasize the importance of examining a suite of metrics to identify priorities and tradeoffs, and inform design or lifecycle management decisions holistically. Previous analyses have demonstrated the central importance of PV module lifetime to support energy transition while minimizing impacts. High levels of material circularity (>90%) enable minimizing lifecycle wastes, can reduce virgin material demands if paired with improving efficiency, but demonstrate tradeoffs in energy return on investment. In the fervor of new material and technology development, it is important to remember that CE is not the end goal; decarbonization and energy transition are the end goal. CE should be used in service to improve the sustainability of PV, and R-actions evaluated for their usefulness and efficacy to this end.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impacts of PV Module Connector Failures on Cost and Performance of Utility Scale Photovoltaic Systems

The reliability, cost and performance of electrical connectors are a concern in all types of electrical systems, and demands on connectors used on photovoltaic (PV) systems include that connectors maintain electrical conductivity and physical strength, endure ultraviolet sunlight and high ambient temperature, and resist moisture and chemical intrusion over a very long (>25 year) performance period. Connector failures increase operation and maintenance (O&M) costs and reduce plant production, but connector failure can also cause safety and liability problems, which are of greater concern. This work results from a three-year collaboration between Sandia National Laboratories (SNL), the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Solar Energy Technology Office (SETO) under Agreements #39035 and #38531 "Connector Reliability Across the US Solar Sector." a multi-pronged investigation of PV connector health across the US (see https://energy.sandia.gov/pvconnectors/). This report presents derivation of a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that models failure modes and frequencies (how often failure occurs), estimates O&M costs and lost production associated with connector failures, and then calculates the effect that PV module connectors can have on Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE). The model is informed with initial data from quantitative assessment of failure rates, root causes and mechanisms, in-situ diagnostics and data collection, lab-based forensics, and interviews with PV connector manufacturers and plant operators. SNL conducted site inspections at multiple utility-scale sites in different climates and subjected field samples of new, used, and degraded connectors to visual and electrical characterization. EPRI conducted metallurgical analysis of the pin and sleeve conductors to study failure-induced morphological and compositional changes. There is in general a shortage of statistically valid data, but data from PVROM database maintained by SNL was sufficient to ascertain failure rates and lost production as well as provide qualitative insight in its curated maintenance records. This report details the structure of the mathematical model but the sources of data to inform the model will continue to evolve. Analysis of a 100 MW PV plant is provided as an example of the use of the model, with results indicating that connectors are responsible for Annualized O&M Costs of $\$$71,933/year; Annualized Unit O&M Costs of $\$$0.72/kW/year; that a Reserve Account of $\$$187,220 should be available to fund repairs related to connectors; that connectors add $\$$1,494,004 to the Net Present Value of the O&M Costs (project life); and that O&M related to connectors adds about $\$$0.00088/kWh to the Levelized Cost of Energy. The impact of this model is to provide a tool to make the US solar sector more robust by quantifying and monetizing the reliability risks to utility-scale PV systems posed by poorly installed, mismatched and/or poorly designed and manufactured connectors. The TEA provides a model incorporating failure statistics, O&M cost data, and lost production into a single figure of merit, informing decisions and enabling practitioners to optimize cost and performance trade-offs. Stakeholders include connector manufacturers, system designers and equipment specifiers, standards bodies, installers and O&M providers, investors and insurance underwriters. This report supports continued growth of PV predicated on assurances that properly installed and maintained PV system connectors are safe and reliable. The project team is proposing future work including accelerated testing of connectors and expanding the approach taken here to other PV system components, such as TEA for rapid shut-down devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Responses of Boreal Forest Ecosystems and Permafrost to Climate Change and Disturbances: A Modeling Perspective

The north circumpolar region contains a large amount of carbon. This carbon storage is vulnerable due to permafrost degradation and wildfire disturbances under ongoing and projected climate change. Climate warming and wildfires change soil organic horizons gradually or abruptly, and modify permafrost thermal-hydrology and biogeochemistry, ecosystem structures, functions, and capability of sequestrating rising atmospheric CO2. Land models do not fully take accounts of these interactions and its complexity in the high latitude. This chapter describes a terrestrial ecosystem model with dynamic organic soil module (DOS-TEM) and its unique freezing-thawing algorithm, and presents key results of its applications mainly in boreal forests of Alaska. The DOS-TEM explicitly considers interactions of soil thermal and hydrological processes, permafrost degradation and the direct and indirect effects of wildfire disturbances, in addition to soil–plant C and N cycles. We first introduce four modules of DOS-TEM, focusing on its disturbance module and coupling with a dynamic organic soil module. Then we describe and validate DOS-TEM’s freezing-thawing algorithm and development based on two-directional Stefan algorithm (TDSA). Finally, we apply the DOS-TEM at site and region scales, with a focus on model ability to dynamically simulate soil organic thickness under warming and wildfires, and consequent impacts on permafrost in the Yukon River Basin. We conclude that land surface model development is urgently needed to include other critical landscape processes, such as thermalkarst and other disturbances, to synchronize thermal-hydrological-biogeochemical processes, and to incorporate an advanced understanding of biospheric feedbacks to atmosphere and ecosystems. Such a complexity of modeling scope is plausible with advancement of high performance computing.

Yi, Shuhua↗