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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

Sasamoto, Washito↗

Solid-propellant rocket motor ballistic performance variation analyses

Results are presented of research aimed at improving the assessment of off-nominal internal ballistic performance including tailoff and thrust imbalance of two large solid-rocket motors (SRMs) firing in parallel. Previous analyses using the Monte Carlo technique were refined to permit evaluation of the effects of radial and circumferential propellant temperature gradients. Sample evaluations of the effect of the temperature gradients are presented. A separate theoretical investigation of the effect of strain rate on the burning rate of propellant indicates that the thermoelastic coupling may cause substantial variations in burning rate during highly transient operating conditions. The Monte Carlo approach was also modified to permit the effects on performance of variation in the characteristics between lots of propellants and other materials to be evaluated. This permits the variabilities for the total SRM population to be determined. A sample case shows, however, that the effect of these between-lot variations on thrust imbalances within pairs of SRMs is minor in compariosn to the effect of the within-lot variations. The revised Monte Carlo and design analysis computer programs along with instructions including format requirements for preparation of input data and illustrative examples are presented.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

A method of using cluster analysis to study statistical dependence in multivariate data

A technique is presented that uses both cluster analysis and a Monte Carlo significance test of clusters to discover associations between variables in multidimensional data. The method is applied to an example of a noisy function in three-dimensional space, to a sample from a mixture of three bivariate normal distributions, and to the well-known Fisher's Iris data.

Borucki, W. J.↗

Costing the satellite power system

The paper presents a methodology for satellite power system costing, places approximate limits on the accuracy possible in cost estimates made at this time, and outlines the use of probabilistic cost information in support of the decision-making process. Reasons for using probabilistic costing or risk analysis procedures instead of standard deterministic costing procedures are considered. Components of cost, costing estimating relationships, grass roots costing, and risk analysis are discussed. Risk analysis using a Monte Carlo simulation model is used to estimate future costs.

Hazelrigg, G. A., Jr.↗

Monte Carlo calculations of relativistic solar proton propagation in interplanetary space

Particle fluxes and pitch angle distributions of relativistic solar protons at 1 AU were determined by Monte Carlo calculations. The analysis covers two hours after the release of the particles from the Sun and total of eight 100000 particle trajectories were simulated. The pitch angle scattering was assumed to be isotropic ad the scattering mean free path was varied from 0.1 to 4 AU. As an application, the solar injection time and interplanetary scattering mean free path of particles that gave rise to the GLE on May, 1978 were determined. Assuming exponential form, the injection decay time was found to be about 11 minutes. The m.f.p. of pitch angle scattering during the event was about 1 AU.

Lumme, M.↗

An analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensor fine lock mode

There are two guiding modes of the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) used for the acquisition of astronomical data by one of its six scientific instruments. The more precise one is called Fine Lock. Command and control problems in the onboard electronics has limited Fine Lock to brighter stars, V less than 13.0 mag, instead of fulfilling its goal of V = 14.5 mag. Consequently, the less precise guiding mode of Coarse Track (approximately 40 milli-arc seconds) has to be used fairly frequently. Indeed, almost half of the scientific observations to have been made with the HST will be compromised. The only realistic or extensive simulations of the Fine Lock guidance mode are reported. The theoretical analysis underlying the Monte Carlo experiments and the numerical computations clearly show both that the control electronics are severely under-engineered and how to adjust the various control parameters to successfully extend Fine Lock guiding performance back to V = 14.0 mag and sometimes beyond.

Taff, L. G.↗

An analysis of the Hubble Space Telescope fine guidance sensor Fine Lock mode

There are two guiding modes of the Hubble Space Telescope used for the acquisition of astronomical data by one of its six scientific instruments. The more precise one is called Fine Lock. Command and control problems in the on-board electronics, compounded by the aberrations in the main optics, has limited routinely successful Fine Lock to brighter stars, V less than 13.0 mag, instead of fulfilling its prelaunch goal of V = 14.5 mag. Consequently, the less precise guiding mode of Coarse Track (about 25 milliarcsecond in practice) has to be used fairly frequently. Indeed, almost half of the celestial hemisphere has stars too faint to support guidance in the Fine Lock mode. Hence, some of the scientific observations to have been made with the Hubble Space Telescope will be compromised. In this paper a report on the only realistic or extensive simulations of the Fine Lock guidance mode is presented. The theoretical analysis underlying the Monte Carlo experiments and the numerical computations show that the control electronics have significant limitations and how to adjust the various control parameters in an attempt to extend Fine Lock guiding performance back to V - 14.0 mag.

Taff, L. G.↗

Impact and volcanism - A momentum scaling law for erosion

The controversy that raged through the 1950s to 1970s over similarities and differences between meteorite impact and volcanic processes is revisited. We propose that there are quantitative similarities in erosion caused by high-speed ejecta produced by either impacts or volcanic processes. Field and petrographic data from the Manicouagan impact crater, Canada, are used to demonstrate that, during the emplacement of the impact melt sheet, erosion occurred at a rate of 2562 kg/sq m per s. Field data for the Mount St. Helens lateral blast of May 18, 1980, suggest an erosion rate of 21 kg/sq m per s, and field data for a small pyroclastic flow on August 7, 1980, suggest an erosion rate of about 14 kg /sq m per s. It is proposed that these three rates were determined dominantly by the momentum of the ejecta, and a quantitative formulation based on lofting theory is given. A new application of the Monte Carlo approach to analysis provides minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates for both the field and the theoretical analyses. The substantial erosion that occurs by fast moving flows results in mixing of stratigraphic components over large distances and to very fine scales.

Simonds, Charles H.↗

Role of Hf on Phase Formation in Ti45Zr(38-x)Hf(x)Ni17 Liquids and Solids

Hafnium and zirconium are very similar, with almost identical sizes and chemical bonding characteristics. However, they behave differently when alloyed with Ti and Ni. A sharp phase formation boundary near 18-21 at.% Hf is observed in rapidly-quenched and as-cast Ti45Zr38-xHfxNi17 alloys. Rapidly-quenched samples that contain less than 18 at.% Hf form the icosahedral quasicrystal phase, whiles samples containing more than 21 at.% form the 3/2 rational approximant phase. In cast alloys, a C14 structure is observed for alloys with Hf lower than the boundary concentration, while a large-cell (11.93 ) FCC Ti2Ni-type structure is found in alloys with Hf concentrations above the boundary. To better understand the role of Hf on phase formation, the structural evolution with supercooling and the solidification behavior of liquid Ti45Zr38-xHfxNi17 alloys (x=0, 12, 18, 21, 38) were studied using the Beamline Electrostatic Levitation (BESL) technique using 125keV x-rays on the 6ID-D beamline at the Advanced Photon Source, Argonne National Laboratory. For all liquids primary crystallization was to a BCC solid solution phase; interestly, an increase in Hf concentration leads to a decrease in the BCC lattice parameter in spite of the chemical similarity between Zr and Hf. A Reitveld analysis confirmed that as in the cast alloys, the secondary phase that formed was the C14 below the phase formation boundary and a Ti2Ni-type structure at higher Hf concentrations. Both the liquidus temperature and the reduced undercooling change sharply on traversing the phase formation boundary concentration, suggesting a change in the liquid structure. Structural information from a Honeycutt-Anderson index analysis of reverse Monte Carlo fits to the S(q) liquid data will be presented to address this issue.

Wessels, V.↗

Autonomous Navigation Performance During The Hartley 2 Comet Flyby

On November 4, 2010, the EPOXI spacecraft performed a 700-km flyby of the comet Hartley 2 as follow-on to the successful 2005 Deep Impact prime mission. EPOXI, an extended mission for the Deep Impact Flyby spacecraft, returned a wealth of visual and infrared data from Hartley 2, marking the fifth time that high-resolution images of a cometary nucleus have been captured by a spacecraft. The highest resolution science return, captured at closest approach to the comet nucleus, was enabled by use of an onboard autonomous navigation system called AutoNav. AutoNav estimates the comet-relative spacecraft trajectory using optical measurements from the Medium Resolution Imager (MRI) and provides this relative position information to the Attitude Determination and Control System (ADCS) for maintaining instrument pointing on the comet. For the EPOXI mission, AutoNav was tasked to enable continuous tracking of a smaller, more active Hartley 2, as compared to Tempel 1, through the full encounter while traveling at a higher velocity. To meet the mission goal of capturing the comet in all MRI science images, position knowledge accuracies of +/- 3.5 km (3-?) cross track and +/- 0.3 seconds (3-?) time of flight were required. A flight-code-in-the-loop Monte Carlo simulation assessed AutoNav's statistical performance under the Hartley 2 flyby dynamics and determined optimal configuration. The AutoNav performance at Hartley 2 was successful, capturing the comet in all of the MRI images. The maximum residual between observed and predicted comet locations was 20 MRI pixels, primarily influenced by the center of brightness offset from the center of mass in the observations and attitude knowledge errors. This paper discusses the Monte Carlo-based analysis that led to the final AutoNav configuration and a comparison of the predicted performance with the flyby performance.

flyby↗

Wavefront Controls for a Large Submillimeter-Wave Observatory

The 25-m aperture Cornell Caltech Atacama Telescope (CCAT) will have a primary mirror that is divided into 162 individual segments, each of which is equipped with 3 positioning actuators. This paper presents a mathematical description of the telescope, its actuators and sensors, and uses it to derive control laws for figure maintenance. A Kalman Filter-based Optical State Estimator is used to continuously estimate the aberrations of the telescope; these are used in a state-feedback controller to maintain image quality. This approach provides the means to correct for the optical effects of errors that occur in unactuated degrees of freedom, such as lateral translations of the segments. The control laws are exercised in Monte Carlo and covariance analysis, to bound the closed-loop performance of the telescope and to conduct control design trades.

edge sensors↗

On the Detectability of CO Molecules in the Interstellar Medium via X-Ray Spectroscopy

We present a study of the detectability of CO molecules in the Galactic interstellar medium using high-resolution X-ray spectra obtained with the XMM-Newton Reflection Grating Spectrometer. We analysed 10 bright low mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) to study the CO contribution in their line of sights. A total of 25 observations were fitted with the ISMabs X-ray absorption model which includes photoabsorption cross-sections for Oi, Oii, Oiii and CO. We performed a Monte Carlo (MC) simulation analysis of the goodness of fit in order to estimate the significance of the CO detection. We determine that the statistical analysis prevents a significant detection of CO molecular X-ray absorption features, except for the lines of sight towards XTE J1718-330 and 4U 1636-53. In the case of XTE J1817-330, this is the first report of the presence of CO along its line of sight. Our results reinforce the conclusion that molecules have a minor contribution to the absorption features in the O K-edge spectral region. We estimate a CO column density lower limit to perform a significant detection with XMM-Newton of N(CO) greater than 6 x 10(exp 16) per sq cm for typical exposure times.

ISM: structure↗

Solid-propellant rocket motor internal ballistic performance variation analysis, phase 2

The Monte Carlo method was used to investigate thrust imbalance and its first time derivative throughtout the burning time of pairs of solid rocket motors firing in parallel. Results obtained compare favorably with Titan 3 C flight performance data. Statistical correlations of the thrust imbalance at various times with corresponding nominal trace slopes suggest several alternative methods of predicting thrust imbalance. The effect of circular-perforated grain deformation on internal ballistics is discussed, and a modified design analysis computer program which permits such an evaluation is presented. Comparisons with SRM firings indicate that grain deformation may account for a portion of the so-called scale factor on burning rate between large motors and strand burners or small ballistic test motors. Thermoelastic effects on burning rate are also investigated. Burning surface temperature is calculated by coupling the solid phase energy equation containing a strain rate term with a model of gas phase combustion zone using the Zeldovich-Novozhilov technique. Comparisons of solutions with and without the strain rate term indicate a small but possibly significant effect of the thermoelastic coupling.

Sforzini, R. H.↗

CFD 2030 Grand Challenge: CFD-in-the-Loop Monte Carlo Flight Simulation for Space Vehicle Design

Flight qualification of space vehicles is markedly different from those typically employed for aircraft. The concept of an extensive flight test campaign for a space vehicle does not exist, and vehicle designers must look to alternative techniques for demonstrating robust and reliable performance of their vehicles prior to operational flight. A space vehicle may undergo only a handful of flight tests in its development cycle, with each flight representing a drastically different flight phase or flight configuration. For instance, NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) launch vehicle and Orion spacecraft will only see a total of four flight demonstrations before flying a crew on its first operational mission, and each flight demonstrates a unique vehicle configuration and/or set of flight conditions. The SLS will be flown only one time before it becomes operational (Artemis 1). The Orion spacecraft Crew Module (CM) will have been tested twice, once on a Delta IV launch vehicle (Exploration Flight Test 1) and once as a fully integrated system with the SLS launch vehicle (Artemis 1). The Orion Launch abort system will have been tested twice, once in a pad abort scenario (Pad Abort 1) and once in an inflight abort scenario (Ascent Abort 2) on a modified Peacekeeper booster. Both of these latter tests involve only a boiler plate CM, not a functional Orion spacecraft. Thus, unlike aircraft, there is very little opportunity for engineers to assess and evaluate their preflight predictions. Instead, space vehicle designers rely on Monte Carlo flight simulations with detailed dispersions of predicted nominal flight behavior to determine how robust their design is to errors and uncertainties in the flight conditions their vehicle may encounter. These Monte Carlo analyses entail thousands of trajectory simulations to demonstrate that the vehicle can meet design requirements at a specified level of reliability. From an aerodynamics and aerothermodynamics perspective, these trajectory simulations are fueled by an extensive aerodynamic database that covers the complete range of expected flight conditions, vehicle configurations, and flight attitudes expected in a given mission. Today, these databases amount to a table of engineering parameters that can be quickly interrogated by the trajectory simulator. The aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic databases are assembled via a series of ground tests, empirical and analytical analysis, physics-based computational analysis, applicable past flight performance data, and in some cases, engineering judgment. These databases generally take years to assemble for a new space vehicle system and in the case of SLS/Orion, over a decade of test and analysis have been expended to develop the extensive databases required to cover the myriad of configurations and potential flight conditions required for the system. Recently, it has been proposed that Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) and computing capability may be reaching a point where it is foreseeable that CFD could be integrated directly into the production trajectory simulation tools used to design NASA’s space vehicles. To demonstrate this, NASA has embarked on two demonstrations of this type of capability, one where six degree of freedom flight trajectory simulation equations are embedded in an existing CFD solver and another where a production CFD solver is loosely coupled with a production trajectory simulation tool. These efforts represent an initial demonstration of a future approach to flight trajectory simulation, but they are a far cry from the capability required to perform a full-up CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation. Therefore, this represents a viable grand challenge for computational methods addressing space vehicle design and development. The final paper/presentation will discuss the many hurdles, beyond simply raw computational power, to realizing this grand challenge and how they map directly to the CFD Vision 2030 ojectives. Among these are the wide range of flight conditions, including accelerating/decelerating flight, encountered by a space vehicle during launch and/or entry. The vehicle can also encounter numerous configuration changes, some of which can be quite drastic, during the course of its flight, so robust, automated geometry modeling, grid generation, and adaptation will play a huge role in reaching this goal. Multiply this by 1000’s of trajectory simulations occurring simultaneously in a given Monte Carlo analysis, and the problem readily scales to absorb virtually any size of supercomputer envisioned today. The concept of CFD-in-the-loop Monte Carlo trajectory simulation poses a formidable challenge for emerging and future computing systems, and it has the potential to shave years off the development cycle for aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic performance predictions as compared to today’s space vehicle design approach.

CFD 2030↗

Numerical methods for solving the Boltzmann equation (a review)

The methods are reviewed which are utilized in principal attempts to obtain the numerical solution or modeling of the Boltzmann equation over a broad range of Knudsen numbers. The primary methods considered are the Monte Carlo and the discrete velocities methods. The conculsions drawn from the analysis include the following: (1) The Monte Carlo methods are not well suited in the area of small Knudsen numbers. (2) Among the Monte Carlo methods, the Bird method appears to be the most attractive, since it is more directly related to the Boltzmann equation. (3) The deterministic methods, which include the discrete ordinate technique, offer great possibilities but require exceedingly large computer times. (4) The use of approximating equations in combination with the discrete velocities method will possibly improve computation time and reduce the required memory volume.

Limar, Y. F.↗

High Fidelity Collision Probabilities Estimated Using Brute Force Monte Carlo Simulations

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis team has implemented new software to estimate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm employs a brute force Monte Carlo (BFMC) method which differs from most other methods because it uses orbital states and covariances propagated from their orbit determination epoch times using the full set of Astrodynamics Support Workstation higher order theory models, including the High Accuracy Satellite Drag Model. This paper de-scribes the BFMC algorithm, presents comparisons of BFMC P (sub c) estimates to those calculated using other methods, and discusses the implications for conjunction risk assessment.

Probabilities↗

Advanced mission analysis programs

Computer programs provide preliminary trajectory and guidance information required for feasibility studies in space mission analysis. The advanced mission analysis computer programs include programs for approximate solutions, programs for targeting and output, and programs for Monte Carlo and linear guidance analysis.

Bjorkman, W. S.↗

Analysis of New Orion Gamma Ray Data and Monte Carlo Simulations of BATSE Gamma Ray Bursts

These studies were stimulated by the reported COMPTEL detection of nuclear gamma ray line emission from the Orion star formation region. Although the observation have very recently been retracted, the detailed analyses that we carried out clearly showed that the low energy cosmic rays that would have been required to explain the reported fluxes were exceedingly restrictive and thus highly improbable. Moreover, these studies proved to be the trigger for very productive new work. In particular, they led us into carefully re-examining the problem of the origin of the light elements, Li, Be and B, where we showed that the light elements could, in fact, be produced primarily by Galactic cosmic rays and did not require an unobserved low energy cosmic ray source , as had been suggested. We further showed that the observed abundances of Be and B in old halo stars contradicted the common belief that the Galactic cosmic rays were accelerated out of the well mixed interstellar medium, and required instead that they be accelerated out of freshly synthesized matter from supernovae. This work, in turn, led us to propose a new origin of Galactic cosmic rays from the refractory grains in supernova enriched cores of superbubbles.

Lingenfelter, Richard E.↗