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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Particle emission from artificial cometary materials

During KOSI (comet simulation) experiments, mineral-ice mixtures are observed in simulated space conditions. Emission of ice-/dust particles from the sample surface is observed by means of different devices. The particle trajectories are recorded with a video system. In the following analysis we extracted the parameters: particle count rate, spatial distribution of starting points on the sample surface, and elevation angle and particle velocity at distances up to 5 cm from the sample surface. Different kinds of detectors are mounted on a frame in front of the sample to register the emitted particles and to collect their dust residues. By means of these instruments the particle count rates, the particle sizes and the composition of the particles can be correlated. The results are related to the gas flux density and the temperature on the sample surface during the insolation period. The particle emission is interpreted in terms of phenomena on the sample surface, e.g., formation of a dust mantle.

Koelzer, Gabriele↗
NASA NTRS2001

Wind-Stress Simulations and Equatorial Dynamics in an AGCM: Basic Results from a 1979-1999 Forced SST Experiment - Part 1

This is the first of a two part study examining the connection of the equatorial momentum budget in an AGCM (Atmospheric General Circulation Model), with simulated equatorial surface wind stresses over the Pacific. The AGCM used in this study forms part of a newly developed coupled forecasting system used at NASA's Seasonal- to-Interannual Prediction Project. Here we describe the model and present results from a 20-year (1979-1999) AMIP-type experiment forced with observed SSTs (Sea Surface Temperatures). Model results are compared them with available observational data sets. The climatological pattern of extra-tropical planetary waves as well as their ENSO-related variability is found to agree quite well with re-analysis estimates. The model's surface wind stress is examined in detail, and reveals a reasonable overall simulation of seasonal interannual variability, as well as seasonal mean distributions. However, an excessive annual oscillation in wind stress over the equatorial central Pacific is found. We examine the model's divergent circulation over the tropical Pacific and compare it with estimates based on re-analysis data. These comparisons are generally good, but reveal excessive upper-level convergence in the central Pacific. In Part II of this study a direct examination of individual terms in the AGCM's momentum budget is presented. We relate the results of this analysis to the model's simulation of surface wind stress.

Bacmeister, Julio T.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the South China Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

The South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) was conducted in May-June 1998. One of its major objectives is to better understand the key physical processes for the onset and evolution of the summer monsoon over Southeast Asia and southern China. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, ships, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during SCSMEX provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with monsoons over the South China Sea region. SCSMEX also provided rainfall estimates which allows for comparisons with those obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), a low earth orbit satellite designed to measure rainfall from space. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model (with 1-km grid size) is used to understand and quantify the precipitation processes associated with the summer monsoon over the South China Sea. This is the first (loud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE-model results captured many of the observed precipitation characteristics because it used a fine grid size. For example, the temporal variation of the simulated rainfall compares quite well to the sounding-estimated rainfall variation. The time and domain-averaged temperature (heating/cooling) and water vapor (drying/ moistening) budgets are in good agreement with observations. The GCE-model-simulated rainfall amount also agrees well with TRMM rainfall data. The results show there is more evaporation from the ocean surface prior to the onset of the monsoon than after the on-~et of monsoon when rainfall increases. Forcing due to net radiation (solar heating minus longwave cooling) is responsible for about 25% of the precipitation in SCSMEX The transfer of heat from the ocean into the atmosphere does not contribute significantly to the rainfall in SCSMEX. Model sensitivity tests indicated that total rain production is reduced 17-18% in runs neglecting the ice phase. The SCSMEX results are compared to other GCE-model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA). Large-scale forcing vie temperature and water vapor tendency, is the major energy source for net condensation in the tropical cases. The effects of large-scale cooling exceed that of large-scale moistening in the west pacific warm pool region and eastern Atlantic region. For SCSMEX, however, the effects of large-scale moistening predominate. Net radiation and sensible and latent hc,it fluxes play a much more important role in the central USA.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS1991

Observation and numerical simulation of a convective initiation during COHMEX

Under a synoptically undisturbed condition, a dual-peak convective lifecycle was observed with the COoperative Huntsville Meteorological EXperiment (COHMEX) observational network over a 24-hour period. The lifecycle included a multicell storm, which lasted about 6 hours, produced a peak rainrate exceeding 100 mm/hr, and initiated a downstream mesoscale convective system. The 24-hour accumulated rainfall of this event was the largest during the entire COHMEX. The downstream mesoscale convective system, unfortunately, was difficult to investigate quantitatively due to the lack of mesoscale observations. The dataset collected near the time of the multicell storm evolution, including its initiation, was one of the best datasets of COHMEX. In this study, the initiation of this multicell storm is chosen as the target of the numerical simulations.

Song, J. Aaron↗
NASA NTRS2021

ExEP: Initial super-Nyquist wavefront control experiments in the Decadal Survey Testbed

In order to characterize exoplanets around nearby stars, upcoming and proposed space telescopes are being designed with high contrast coronagraph instruments. Coronagraphs are generally designed to suppress only a single, on-axis star, but there are numerous binary star systems within our observational range. Multi-star wavefront correction (MSWC) is a technique that uses deformable mirror(s) to simultaneously suppress light from more than one star to create a high contrast dark zone in the image. MSWC has already been well demonstrated in simulation and in air-based testbeds. In this paper, we describe our prepatory vacuum experiments in the Decadal Survey Testbed (DST) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. First we implemented super-Nyquist wavefront control (SNWC, a critical component of MSWC), and then we proceeded to simultaneous sub- and super-Nyquist control. With our existing calibration methods, SNWC reached a contrast of $8.6{\times}10^{-9}$ in a 10\% bandpass around a first-order diffraction spot; calibration improvements are needed to improve model agreement for higher-order spots. We have also implemented changes to our software (the open-source package FALCO) required for MSWC, and identified the necessary changes in hardware. Here we report our best SNWC lab results and our plans for implementing MSWC during a future set of experiments.

Bendek, Eduardo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Model Simulations of Deep Convection: Insights From DP‐SCREAM During TRACER

Global Storm-Resolving Models (GSRMs) are becoming increasingly vital for advancing climate modeling and improving the prediction of extreme weather events. Houston, a coastal region frequently affected by deep convective storms, offers an ideal setting to evaluate the ability of GSRMs to simulate deep convection. This study assesses the performance of the Doubly Periodic Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM (Energy Exascale Earth System Model) Atmosphere Model (DP-SCREAM) using observations from the TRacking Aerosol Convection interactions ExpeRiment (TRACER) campaign. DP-SCREAM effectively reproduces the diurnal cycles of clouds and precipitation, demonstrating much greater skill than the E3SM single column model. The DP-SCREAM is demonstrated to be applicable to coastal regions, partially due to the forcing data sets already capturing the influence of breezes. DP-SCREAM also replicates biases persistent in the global version of SCREAM: the underrepresentation of boundary layer shallow clouds, a lack of mid-level congestus clouds, and the popcorn convection, characterized by small and disorganized convective cells generating the strongest precipitation. To investigate these issues, two sensitivity experiments were conducted: increasing the mixing length and scaling up the buoyancy flux within the Simplified Higher Order Closure scheme. Increasing the mixing length improved mid-level congestus representation and reduced unrealistic early morning fog occurrence. Enhancing buoyancy flux only marginally improved the bias of underproduced big convective cells. In conclusion, an additional resolution sensitivity test at 0.5 km grid spacing demonstrated that a refined horizontal resolution alone is insufficient to resolve these biases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimability of geodetic parameters from space VLBI observables

The feasibility of space very long base interferometry (VLBI) observables for geodesy and geodynamics is investigated. A brief review of space VLBI systems from the point of view of potential geodetic application is given. A selected notational convention is used to jointly treat the VLBI observables of different types of baselines within a combined ground/space VLBI network. The basic equations of the space VLBI observables appropriate for convariance analysis are derived and included. The corresponding equations for the ground-to-ground baseline VLBI observables are also given for a comparison. The simplified expression of the mathematical models for both space VLBI observables (time delay and delay rate) include the ground station coordinates, the satellite orbital elements, the earth rotation parameters, the radio source coordinates, and clock parameters. The observation equations with these parameters were examined in order to determine which of them are separable or nonseparable. Singularity problems arising from coordinate system definition and critical configuration are studied. Linear dependencies between partials are analytically derived. The mathematical models for ground-space baseline VLBI observables were tested with simulation data in the frame of some numerical experiments. Singularity due to datum defect is confirmed.

Adam, Jozsef↗
NASA NTRS1996

Analysis of Residual Acceleration Effects on Transport and Segregation During Directional Solidification of Tin-Bismuth in the MEPHISTO Furnace Facility

The objective of this work is to approach the problem of determining the transport conditions (and effects of residual acceleration) during the plane-front directional solidification of a tin-bismuth alloy under low gravity conditions. The work involves using a combination of 2- and 3-D numerical models, scaling analyses, ID models and the results of ground-based and low-gravity experiments. The latter are to be conducted during the MEPHISTO experiment scheduled for USMP-3 in early 1996. The models will be used to predict the response of the transport conditions and consequent solute segregation in directionally solidifying tin-bismuth melt. Real-time Seebeck voltage variations across a Sn-Bi melt during directional solidification in MEPHISTO on USMP-1 show a distinct variation which can be correlated with thruster firings. The Seebeck voltage measurement is related to the response of the instantaneous average melt composition at the melt-solid interface. This allows a direct comparison of numerical simulations with the Seebeck signals obtained on USMP-1. The effects of such accelerations on composition for a directionally solidifying Sn-Bi alloy have been simulated numerically. USMP-1 acceleration data was used to assist in our choice of acceleration magnitude and orientation. The results show good agreement with experimental observations. The USMP-3 experiments took place earlier this year (February 22 through March 6). There were several differences between the USMP-3 experiments as compared to USMP-1. Firstly a more concentrated alloy was solidified and, secondly, Primary Reaction Control System thruster burns were requested at particular times during four separate growth runs. This allowed us to monitor the response Seebeck response under well-characterized growth conditions. In addition, we carried out simulations during the experiment in order to interpret the Seebeck signal. Preliminary results are described here.

Alexander J. Iwan D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Design of novel refractory equiatomic multi-principal elemental alloys based on Mo-Nb-Ti system for Gen IV reactor applications

Excellent irradiation damage resistance demonstrated by multi-principal elemental alloys (MPEAs) has sparked significant interest among researchers, prompting exploration into their vast compositional space, to validate their suitability for nuclear applications. A combined approach of thermodynamic and empirical parameters calculations alongside CALPHAD (CALculation of PHAse Diagrams) for phase formation predictions enable high-throughput material selection for sophisticated applications like nuclear, overcoming laborious and time-consuming experiments. Key thermodynamic and empirical parameters for eight novel equiatomic MPEAs, based on seven low thermal neutron cross section refractory elements, for predicting phase formation were calculated, and equilibrium and non-equilibrium simulations in CALPHAD were employed to comprehensively model the systems. Pseudo binary phase diagram simulations showed that Zr, V or equiatomic CrV additions to the base MoNbTi alloy (MoNbTi-Zr, MoNbTi-V and MoNbTi-CrV alloys) favor the formation of isomorphous body-centered cubic (BCC) phase at high temperatures, while Cr, Al, equiatomic ZrV, or equiatomic CrAl additions (MoNbTi-Cr, MoNbTi-Al, MoNbTi-ZrV or MoNbTi-CrAl alloys) limit the solubility of them. Equilibrium CALPHAD simulations at 750 oC were consistent with XRD results on MoNbTi, MoNbTiZr and MoNbTiCr alloys, and partially for others. Notably, elemental segregation observed in the backscattered electron (BSE) scanning electron microscopy (SEM) images of the alloys was accurately simulated through non-equilibrium Scheil solidification calculations in CALPHAD, further verified by experiments. The precipitation of TiCr2 Laves phase in Cr containing MoNbTiCr and MoNbTiCrAl was accurately predicted while discrepancies were noted in MoNbTiCrV. The equilibrium simulations also provided insights into phase compositions at specific temperatures offering a pathway for tailoring the desired microstructure and properties of these systems. Empirical parameters calculations successfully predicted random solid solution in the base MoNbTi alloy, and with an exception in MoNbTiV and MoNbTiAl, predicted intermetallic precipitation in the rest, especially, Laves phase precipitation in Cr containing alloys.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1992

3-dimensional current collection model

A three-dimensional, time dependent current collection model of a satellite has been developed for the TSS-1 system. The system has been simulated particularly for the Research of Plasma Electrodynamics (ROPE) experiment. The Maxwellian distributed particles with the geomagnetic field effects are applied in this numerical simulation. The preliminary results indicate that a ring current is observed surrounding the satellite in the equatorial plane. This ring current is found between the plasma sheath and the satellite surface and is oscillating with a time scale of approximately 1 microsec. This is equivalent to the electron plasma frequency. An hour glass shape of electron distribution was observed when the viewing direction is perpendicular to the equatorial plane. This result is consistent with previous findings from Linson (1969) and Antoniades et al. (1990). Electrons that are absorbed by the satellite are limited from the background ionosphere as indicated by Parker and Murphy (1967).

Hwang, Kai-Shen↗
NASA NTRS1987

A system for conducting igneous petrology experiments under controlled redox conditions in reduced gravity

The Space Shuttle and the planned Space Station will permit experimentation under conditions of reduced gravitational acceleration offering experimental petrologists the opportunity to study crystal growth, element distribution, and phase chemistry. In particular the confounding effects of macro and micro scale buoyancy-induced convection and crystal settling or flotation can be greatly reduced over those observed in experiments in the terrestrial laboratory. Also, for experiments in which detailed replication of the environment is important, the access to reduced gravity will permit a more complete simulation of processes that may have occurred on asteroids or in free space. A technique that was developed to control, measure, and manipulate oxygen fugacities with small quantities of gas which are recirculated over the sample. This system could be adaptable to reduced gravity space experiments requiring redox control.

Williams, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Active and Passive Radiative Transfer Modeling of the Olympic Mountains Experiment

Sensor forward models are an important tool for interpreting remote sensing observations of geophysical phenomena. By implementing a three-dimensional framework, we can simulate and analyze observations from various sensors on disparate platforms. To demonstrate our model framework, we simulate observations from the Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX). The use of cloud model simulations allows us to understand sensor response to cloud ice, falling snow, and other processes and features, and the application of model tools to observations allows us to quantify precipitation.MIIST 3D Forward ModelThe Multi-Instrument Inverse Solver Testbed(MIIST) uses the Atmospheric Radiative TransferSimulator (ARTS) for solving the vector radiativetransfer (RT) equation in up to three spatialdimensions within a spherical geometry• Gas absorptiono Line-by-line calculationso Fast transmittance tables• Hydrometeor scattering solverso Discrete ordinateo RT4 (Evans, 1D)o Radar Single Scattering (1D or 3D)o Monte Carlo (3D)Scattering TablesHigh-fidelity hydrometeor scatteringtables are necessary for accurateand consistent forward modeling ofmulti-frequency observations• Requires full Stokes matriceso And absorption vector• Randomly oriented particleso Discrete Dipole Approximationo Characteristic Basis Function Method(coming soon)• Horizontally-oriented plateso Invariant Imbedding T-matrix MethodCloud Resolving SimulationsCloud resolving simulations (e.g.,NU-WRF) supply output consistentwith ARTS needs• Atmospheric Informationo Temperatureo Pressure / heighto Water vapor• Hydrometeor Profileso ARTS architecture ripe for explicit binmicrophysics• Examples use Morrison 2M schemeThe Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)Validation for GPM of mid-latitudefrontal systems approaching nearcoastalmountains from the ocean• Large collection of ground-based andairborne sensorso Radarso Radiometerso In situ• Contemporaneous with RADEXo Two sets of radar at same frequenciesRadiometer Simulation (3 km NUWRF, 20151203, 15:00)2018.12.14 7Simulate 166 GHz polarizationdifference• Corresponds to the presence of aligned icecrystals• Look at trends for both simulations andobservations• Simulations can tolerate lower resolutiono Larger domainSimulations from Observations: OLYMPEXSimulate sensor response usinggeophysical retrievals as input• Single frequency radar retrievals• Multiple scattering enhancementapparent at W band• Spatially dependent phenomenonModeling Application: 1D Retrievals03 December 2015• DC-8 and ER-2 flightso Focus on APR-3 (DC-8)• Citationo Stacked microphysics legso Qualitative comparisonso Range of frozen habitso Presence of supercooledliquid cloudsResults• Retrievals match probeso Good qualitative match• Bands of increasedreflectivity correspond tolarge Dm and highaggregate fraction• Significant amounts ofsupercooled liquid water

Adams, Ian S.↗
NASA NTRS1986

A system for conducting igneous petrology experiments under controlled redox conditions in reduced gravity

The Space Shuttle and the planned Space Station will permit experimentation under conditions of reduced gravitational acceleration offering experimental petrologists the opportunity to study crystal growth, element distribution, and phase chemistry. In particular the confounding effects of macro and micro scale buoyancy-induced convection and crystal settling or floatation can be greatly reduced over those observed in experiments in the terrestrial laboratory. Also, for experiments in which detailed replication of the environment is important, the access to reduced gravity will permit a more complete simulation of processes that may have occurred on asteroids or in free space. A technique that was developed to control, measure, and manipulate oxygen fugacites with small quantities of gas which are recirculated over the sample is described. This system should be adaptable to reduced gravity space experiments requiring redox control. Experiments done conventionally and those done using this technique yield identical results done in a 1-g field.

Williams, R. J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Generalized quantum master equations can improve the accuracy of semiclassical predictions of multitime correlation functions

Multitime quantum correlation functions are central objects in physical science, offering a direct link between the experimental observables and the dynamics of an underlying model. While experiments such as 2D spectroscopy and quantum control can now measure such quantities, the accurate simulation of such responses remains computationally expensive and sometimes impossible, depending on the system’s complexity. A natural tool to employ is the generalized quantum master equation (GQME), which can offer computational savings by extending reference dynamics at a comparatively trivial cost. However, dynamical methods that can tackle chemical systems with atomistic resolution, such as those in the semiclassical hierarchy, often suffer from poor accuracy, limiting the credence one might lend to their results. By combining work on the accuracy-boosting formulation of semiclassical memory kernels with recent work on the multitime GQME, here we show for the first time that one can exploit a multitime semiclassical GQME to dramatically improve both the accuracy of coarse mean-field Ehrenfest dynamics and obtain orders of magnitude efficiency gains.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatially Resolved Near Field Spectroscopy of Vibrational Polaritons at the Small N Limit

Vibrational polaritons, which have been primarily studied in Fabry–Pérot cavities with a large number of molecules (N ~ 10 6 –10 10 ) coupled to the resonator mode, exhibit various experimentally observed effects on chemical reactions. However, the exact mechanism is elusively understood from the theoretical side, as the large number of molecules involved in an experimental strong coupling condition cannot be represented completely in simulations. This discrepancy between theory and experiment arises from computational descriptions of polariton systems typically being limited to only a few molecules, thus failing to represent the experimental conditions adequately. To address this mismatch, we used surface phonon polariton (SPhP) resonators as an alternative platform for vibrational strong coupling. SPhPs exhibit strong electromagnetic confinement on the surface and thus allow for coupling to a small number of molecules. As a result, this platform can enhance nonlinearity and slow down relaxation to the dark modes. In this study, we fabricated a pillar-shaped quartz resonator and then coated it with a thin layer of cobalt phthalocyanine (CoPc). By employing scattering-type scanning near-field optical microscopy (s-SNOM), we spatially investigated the dependency of vibrational strong coupling on the spatially varying electromagnetic field strength and demonstrated strong coupling with 38,000 molecules only–reaching to the small N limit. Through s-SNOM analysis, we found that strong coupling was observed primarily on the edge of the quartz pillar and the apex of the s-SNOM tip, where the maximum field enhancement occurs. In contrast, a weak resonance signal and lack of coupling were observed closer to the center of the pillar. This work demonstrates the importance of spatially resolved polariton systems in nanophotonic platforms and lays a foundation to explore polariton chemistry and chemical dynamics at the small N limit–one step closer to reconcile with high-level quantum calculations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Integrated Snow Radiance and Snow Physics Modeling Framework for Cold Land Surface Modeling

Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling and physical land surface modeling are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated snow/cold lands modeling framework for land surface modeling and data assimilation applications. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. Together these form a flexible framework for self-consistent remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. Each element of this framework is modular so the choice of element can be tailored to match the emphasis of a particular study. For example, within our framework, four choices of a FRTM are available to simulate the brightness temperature of snow: Two models are available to model the physical evolution of the snowpack and underlying soil, and two models are available to handle the water/energy balance at the land surface. Since the framework is modular, other models-physical or statistical--can be accommodated, too. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. The advantages of such an integrated modular framework built on the LIS will be described through examples-e.g., studies to analyze snow field experiment observations, and simulations of future satellite missions for snow and cold land processes.

Kim, Edward J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Simulations of Forest Hurricane Disturbance and Recovery in Puerto Rico by ELM-FATES Using Field Measurements

In the past three decades, Puerto Rico (PR) experienced five hurricanes that met or exceeded category three, and they caused severe forest structural damage and elevated tree mortality. To improve our mechanistic understanding of hurricane impacts on tropical forests and assess hurricane-affected forest dynamics in Earth system models, we use in situ forest measurements at the Bisley Experimental Watersheds in Northeast PR to evaluate the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator coupled with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model (ELM-FATES). The observations show that before Hurricane Hugo, 77.3% of the aboveground biomass (AGB) is from the shade-tolerant plant function type (PFT). The Hugo-induced mortality rates are over ~50%, and they induce a ~39% AGB reduction, which recovers to a level like the pre-Hugo condition in 2014, following a second, lower intensity hurricane, Georges. We perform numerical experiments that simulate damage from Hugo and Georges on the forests, including defoliation, sapwood and structural biomass damage, and hurricane-induced mortality. ELM-FATES can reasonably represent coexistence between the two PFTs–light-demanding and shade-tolerant–for both the pre-Hugo and post-Hugo conditions. The model represents a reasonable size distribution of mid-and large-sized trees although it underestimates AGB, likely due to the overestimated nonhurricane mortality. ELM-FATES temporarily stimulated leaf biomass and diameter increment after Georges, an effect that should be tested with observations of future hurricane defoliation events. This research indicates that addressing model-data mismatches in tree mortality and understory dynamics are essential to simulation of more extreme hurricane effects under climate change.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗