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At least 307 records · Page 17

Modeling Insights into Deuterium Excess as an Indicator of Water Vapor Source Conditions

Deuterium excess (d) is interpreted in conventional paleoclimate reconstructions as a tracer of oceanic source region conditions, such as temperature, where precipitation originates. Previous studies have adopted co-isotopic approaches to estimate past changes in both site and oceanic source temperatures for ice core sites using empirical relationships derived from conceptual distillation models, particularly Mixed Cloud Isotopic Models (MCIMs). However, the relationship between d and oceanic surface conditions remains unclear in past contexts. We investigate this climate-isotope relationship for sites in Greenland and Antarctica using multiple simulations of the water isotope-enabled Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE-R general circulation model and apply a novel suite of model vapor source distribution (VSD) tracers to assess d as a proxy for source temperature variability under a range of climatic conditions. Simulated average source temperatures determined by the VSDs are compared to synthetic source temperature estimates calculated using MCIM equations linking d to source region conditions. We show that although deuterium excess is generally a faithful tracer of source temperatures as estimated by the MCIM approach, large discrepancies in the isotope-climate relationship occur around Greenland during the Last Glacial Maximum simulation, when precipitation seasonality and moisture source regions were notably different from present. This identified sensitivity in d as a source temperature proxy suggests that quantitative climate reconstructions from deuterium excess should be treated with caution for some sites when boundary conditions are significantly different from the present day. Also, the exclusion of the influence of humidity and other evaporative source changes in MCIM regressions may be a limitation of quantifying source temperature fluctuations from deuterium excess in some instances.

simulation↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Taylor, Lyla L.↗

Sub-Mesoscales at Ocean Fronts: Dissipation of Eddy Kinetic Energy

D’Asaro et al. measured the dissipation of eddy kinetic energy at the Kuroshio ocean front, found it to be 1-2 orders of magnitude larger than the value predicted by the law of the wall and suggested that the enhancement is due to sub-mesoscales, SM. To assess their suggestion, we employ two SM models. In the first model the buoyancy flux is based on baroclinic instabilities only and there is no momentum flux (Reynolds stresses). The model is unable to reproduce the Kuroshio data. The second model includes baroclinic instabilities, wind stress and Reynolds stresses. It reproduces the data satisfactorily. The analytic formula for the dissipation that we present can be used in OGCMs to parameterize dissipation at ocean fronts other than Kuroshio, e.g., Gulf Stream and ACC, an extension that could improve the predictions of climate studies.

sub-mesoscale models↗

Numerical simulation of the world ocean circulation

A multi-level model, based on the primitive equations, is developed for simulating the temperature and velocity fields produced in the world ocean by differential heating and surface wind stress. The model ocean has constant depth, free slip at the lower boundary, and neglects momentum advection; so that there is no energy exchange between the barotropic and baroclinic components of the motion, although the former influences the latter through temperature advection. The ocean model was designed to be coupled to the UCLA atmospheric general circulation model, for the study of the dynamics of climate and climate changes. But here, the model is tested by prescribing the observed seasonally varying surface wind stress and the incident solar radiation, the surface air temperature and humidity, cloudiness and the surface wind speed, which, together with the predicted ocean surface temperature, determine the surface flux of radiant energy, sensible heat and latent heat.

Takano, K.↗

A Numerical Study of Tropical Sea-Air Interactions Using a Cloud Resolving Model Coupled with an Ocean Mixed-Layer Model

Coupling a cloud resolving model (CRM) with an ocean mixed layer (OML) model can provide a powerful tool for better understanding impacts of atmospheric precipitation on sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity. The objective of this study is twofold. First, by using the three dimensional (3-D) CRM-simulated (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE) diabatic source terms, radiation (longwave and shortwave), surface fluxes (sensible and latent heat, and wind stress), and precipitation as input for the OML model, the respective impact of individual component on upper ocean heat and salt budgets are investigated. Secondly, a two-way air-sea interaction between tropical atmospheric climates (involving atmospheric radiative-convective processes) and upper ocean boundary layer is also examined using a coupled two dimensional (2-D) GCE and OML model. Results presented here, however, only involve the first aspect. Complete results will be presented at the conference.

Shie, Chung-Lin↗

Atmospheric and oceanographic research review, 1978

Research activities related to global weather, ocean/air interactions, and climate are reported. The global weather research is aimed at improving the assimilation of satellite-derived data in weather forecast models, developing analysis/forecast models that can more fully utilize satellite data, and developing new measures of forecast skill to properly assess the impact of satellite data on weather forecasting. The oceanographic research goal is to understand and model the processes that determine the general circulation of the oceans, focusing on those processes that affect sea surface temperature and oceanic heat storage, which are the oceanographic variables with the greatest influence on climate. The climate research objective is to support the development and effective utilization of space-acquired data systems in climate forecast models and to conduct sensitivity studies to determine the affect of lower boundary conditions on climate and predictability studies to determine which global climate features can be modeled either deterministically or statistically.

Source record↗

Ocean state estimation for climate studies

Climate variabilities, which are of interest to CLIVAR, involve a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Ocean state estimation (often referred to as ocean data assimilation), by optimally combining observations and models, becomes an important element of CLIVAR.

oceanography climate↗

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Project to Interface Climate Modeling on Global and Regional Scales with Earth Observing (EOS) Observations

This ten-year NASA IDS project began in 1990. Its initial work plan adopted the NASA provided timeline that data would become available for new Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms beginning in 1995. Over its first phase, it was based at NCAR, which had submitted the original proposal and involved activities of a substantial number of co-investigators at NCAR who engaged in research over several areas related to the observations expected to be received from the EOS platforms. Their focus was the theme of use of EOS data for improving climate models for projecting global change. From the climate system viewpoint, the IDS addressed land, clouds-hydrological cycle, radiative fluxes and especially aerosol impacts, ocean and sea-ice, and stratosphere. Other research addressed issues of data assimilation, diagnostic analyses, and data set development from current satellite systems, especially use of SAR data for climate models.

Dickinson, Robert E.↗

Interannual Variation in Phytoplankton Concentration and Community in the Pacific Ocean

Climate events such as El Nino have been shown to have an effect on the biology of our ocean. Because of the lack of data, we still have very little knowledge about the spatial and temporal effect these climate events may have on biological marine systems. In this study, we used the NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) to assess the interannual variability in phytoplankton community in the Pacific Ocean between 1998 and 2005. In the North Central and Equatorial Pacific Ocean, changes in the Multivariate El Nino Index were associated with changes in phytoplankton composition. The model identified an increase in diatoms of approx.33 % in the equatorial Pacific in 1999 during a La Nina event. This increase in diatoms coincided with a decrease of approx.11 % in cyanobacteria concentration. The inverse relationship between cyanobacteria and diatoms concentration was significant (p<0.05) throughout the period of study. The use of a numerical model allows us to assess the impact climate variability has on key phytoplankton groups known to lead to contrasting food chain at a spatial and temporal resolution unachievable when relying solely on in-situ observations.

Rousseaux, C. S.↗

Modeling Sea Ice Albedo and Transmittance Measurements With A Fully-Coupled Radiative Transfer Model

A rigorous treatment of the sea ice medium has been incorporated in the advanced Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COART) model. The inherent optical properties (IOPs) of brine pockets and air bubbles over the 0.25-4.0 μm spectral region are parameterized as a function of the vertical profile of the sea ice physical properties (temperature, salinity and density). We test the model performance using available albedo and transmittance measurements collected during the Impacts of Climate on the Ecosystems and Chemistry of the Arctic Pacific Environment (ICESCAPE) and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) field campaigns. The observations are adequately simulated when at least three layers are used to represent bare (first-year and multi-year) ice, including a thin top layer characterized by low density and high scattering. Two layers can be sufficient to model isolated cases of multi-year ice, and apply well to ponded ice except for shallow ponds over thick ice. The albedo and transmittance of ponded ice in the visible are mainly determined by the optical properties of the ice underlying the water layer used to model the pond. Sensitivity results indicate that the air volume or ice density has the largest impact on the simulated fluxes. Possible contamination from light-absorbing impurities, such as black carbon or ice algae, is also implemented in the model and is able to effectively reduce the albedo and transmittance in the visible spectrum to further improve the model-observation agreement. The agreement between the observed and modeled spectra validates the parameterization of the sea ice IOPs, and endorses COART as an accurate tool for radiation studies in the cryosphere.

Coupled Ocean-9 Atmosphere Radiative Transfer (COA↗

Topex/Poseidon: A United States/France mission. Oceanography from space: The oceans and climate

The TOPEX/POSEIDON space mission, sponsored by NASA and France's space agency, the Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES), will give new observations of the Earth from space to gain a quantitative understanding of the role of ocean currents in climate change. Rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other 'greenhouse gases' produced as a result of human activities could generate a global warming, followed by an associated rise in sea level. The satellite will use radar altimetry to measure sea-surface height and will be tracked by three independent systems to yield accurate topographic maps over the dimensions of entire ocean basins. The satellite data, together with the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program and the World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) measurements, will be analyzed by an international scientific team. By merging the satellite observations with TOGA and WOCE findings, the scientists will establish the extensive data base needed for the quantitative description and computer modeling of ocean circulation. The ocean models will eventually be coupled with atmospheric models to lay the foundation for predictions of global climate change.

Source record↗

Free oscillations in a climate model with ice-sheet dynamics

A study of stable periodic solutions to a simple nonlinear model of the ocean-atmosphere-ice system is presented. The model has two dependent variables: ocean-atmosphere temperature and latitudinal extent of the ice cover. No explicit dependence on latitude is considered in the model. Hence all variables depend only on time and the model consists of a coupled set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations. The globally averaged ocean-atmosphere temperature in the model is governed by the radiation balance. The reflectivity to incoming solar radiation, i.e., the planetary albedo, includes separate contributions from sea ice and from continental ice sheets. The major physical mechanisms active in the model are (1) albedo-temperature feedback, (2) continental ice-sheet dynamics and (3) precipitation-rate variations. The model has three-equilibrium solutions, two of which are linearly unstable, while one is linearly stable. For some choices of parameters, the stability picture changes and sustained, finite-amplitude oscillations obtain around the previously stable equilibrium solution. The physical interpretation of these oscillations points to the possibility of internal mechanisms playing a role in glaciation cycles.

Kallen, E.↗

Arctic Cut-Off High Drives the Poleward Shift of a New Greenland Melting Record

Large-scale atmospheric circulation controls the mass and energy balance of the Greenland ice sheet through its impact on radiative budget, runoff and accumulation. Here, using reanalysis data and the outputs of a regional climate model, we show that the persistence of an exceptional atmospheric ridge, centered over the Arctic Ocean, was responsible for a poleward shift of runoff, albedo and surface temperature records over the Greenland during the summer of 2015. New records of monthly mean zonal winds at 500 hPa and of the maximum latitude of ridge peaks of the 5,700+/-50 m isohypse over the Arctic were associated with the formation and persistency of a cutoff high. The unprecedented (1948-2015) and sustained atmospheric conditions promoted enhanced runoff, increased the surface temperatures and decreased the albedo in northern Greenland, while inhibiting melting in the south, where new melting records were set over the past decade. Subject terms: Earth sciences Atmospheric science Climate science

drainage↗

Decadal Prediction Efforts in GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office)

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) plans to use our GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to explore issues associated with predictability on decadal time scales and to contribute to the decadal prediction project that is part ofCMIP5. The GEOS-5 AOGCM is comprised of the GEOS-5 AGCM with the Catchment Land Surface Model, coupled to GFDL's MOM, version 4. We have assimilation systems for both the atmosphere and ocean. For our climate prediction efforts, the atmosphere will be initialized from the GEOS-5 Modem Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), available from 1979 to present at 112 resolution, and from 1948 to present at 2 resolution. The ocean assimilation is conducted within the coupled model framework, using the MERRA as a constraint for both the atmosphere and the ocean. The decadal prediction experiments will be conducted with a 1 atmosphere and a 112 ocean. Some initial results will be presented, focusing on initialization aspects of the GEOS-5 system.

Rienecker, Michele M.↗

U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling (USECoS): Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Analysis

Although the oceans play a major role in the uptake of fossil fuel CO2 from the atmosphere, there is much debate about the contribution from continental shelves, since many key shelf fluxes are not yet well quantified: the exchange of carbon across the land-ocean and shelf-slope interfaces, air-sea exchange of CO2, burial, and biological processes including productivity. Our goal is to quantify these carbon fluxes along the eastern U.S. coast using models quantitatively verified by comparison to observations, and to establish a framework for predicting how these fluxes may be modified as a result of climate and land use change. Our research questions build on those addressed with previous NASA funding for the USECoS (U.S. Eastern Continental Shelf Carbon Cycling) project. We have developed a coupled biogeochemical ocean circulation model configured for this study region and have extensively evaluated this model with both in situ and remotely-sensed data. Results indicate that to further reduce uncertainties in the shelf component of the global carbon cycle, future efforts must be directed towards 1) increasing the resolution of the physical model via nesting and 2) making refinements to the biogeochemical model and quantitatively evaluating these via the assimilation of biogeochemical data (in situ and remotely-sensed). These model improvements are essential for better understanding and reducing estimates of uncertainties in current and future carbon transformations and cycling in continental shelf systems. Our approach and science questions are particularly germane to the carbon cycle science goals of the NASA Earth Science Research Program as well as the U.S. Climate Change Research Program and the North American Carbon Program. Our interdisciplinary research team consists of scientists who have expertise in the physics and biogeochemistry of the U.S. eastern continental shelf, remote-sensing data analysis and data assimilative numerical models.

Mannino, Antonio↗

Regional Multi-Fluid-Based Geophysical Excitation of Polar Motion

By analyzing geophysical fluids geographic distribution, we can isolate the regional provenance for some of the important signals in polar motion. An understanding of such will enable us to determine whether certain climate signals can have an impact on polar motion. Here we have compared regional patterns of three surficial fluids: the atmosphere, ocean and land-based hydrosphere. The oceanic excitation function of polar motion was estimated with the ECCO/JPL data - assimilating model, and the atmospheric excitation function was determined from NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. The excitation function due to land hydrology was estimated from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data by an indirect approach that determines water thickness. Our attention focuses on the regional distribution of atmospheric and oceanic excitation of the annual and Chandler wobbles during 1993-2010, and on hydrologic excitation of these wobbles during 2002.9-2011.5. It is found that the regions of maximum fractional covariance (those exceeding a value of 3 .10 -3) for the annual band are over south Asia, southeast Asia and south central Indian ocean, for hydrology, atmosphere and ocean respectively; and for the Chandler period, areas over North America, Asia, and South America; and scattered across the southern oceans for the atmosphere and oceans respectively

oceanic angular momentum↗