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DOE OSTI2024

An Efficient Annual-Performance Model of a Geothermal Network for Improved System Design, Operation, and Control: Preprint

Geothermal district energy systems (DES), and specifically geothermal networks, provide a viable solution for decarbonizing residential and commercial heating and cooling loads. District energy systems of all kinds enable a thermal resource with a relatively high capital cost (such as a geothermal borehole field) to be shared among a large number of users. While district heating and cooling has been studied for many years, geothermal networks, fifth generation DES that utilize water-source heat pumps and an ambient temperature loop to meet heating and cooling loads, have not been implemented extensively and thus require additional technical and economic optimization to obtain maximum benefits. This paper presents a newly developed reduced-order model that captures the flow of energy within the network, including the commercial and residential users' electrical usage, at an hourly rate over a year. The model includes building loads, heat pumps, borehole fields, and auxiliary heat/cool input, all connected with an ambient-temperature thermal loop model. In the model, operational control is possible for the borehole fields, circulation pump, and auxiliary system. For a given system, the model can output the complete state parameters for each component, the thermal loop, and the collective system, such as flow rate over time, average thermal loop temperature over time, and total electricity usage. The model can also be used to optimize the system control for maximizing system efficiency or minimizing system operational cost. For example, one initial assessment of the borehole controller for an example system showed that a controller with on/off operation of the borehole field reduces annual electrical usage by 33%, compared with continuous operation mode. Hence, the model can assist in optimizing a given system's operation to get the most value out of a geothermal network installation. Future work will consider the model's application to a demonstration project, including the model validation against operational data and system operation optimization.

ambient-temperature loop↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of extreme summer drought on conventional and renewable generation capacity: Methods and a case study on the Eastern U.S. power system

Across recent years, there has been a growing prevalence of extreme weather events throughout the United States, posing significant challenges to the reliable and resilient operation of power systems. Specifically, summer droughts threaten to severely reduce available generation capacity to meet regional electricity demand, potentially leading to power outages. This underscores the importance of accurate resource adequacy (RA) assessment to ensure the reliable operation of the nation’s energy infrastructure. Accurately evaluating the usable capacity of regional generation fleets is a challenging undertaking due to the intricate interactions between power systems and hydro-climatic systems. Here, this paper proposes a systematic and analytical framework to evaluate the impacts of extreme summer drought events on the available capacity of various generating technologies, incorporating both meteorological and hydrologic factors. The framework provides detailed plant-level capacity derating models for hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and renewable power plants, facilitating evaluations with high temporal and spatial resolution. The application of the proposed impact assessment framework to the 2025 generation fleet of the real-world power system within the PJM and SERC regions of the United States yields insightful results. By analyzing the daily usable capacity of 6,055 at-risk generators across the study region, it shows that the summer capacity deration is most significant for hydroelectric and once-through thermal power plants, followed by recirculating thermal power plants and combustion turbines. In the event of the recurrence of the 2007 southeastern summer drought event in the near future, the generation fleet could experience a substantial reduction in available capacity, estimated at approximately 8.5 GW, compared to typical summer conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals that the usable capacity of the generation fleet would suffer an even more significant decrease under conditions of increasingly severe summer droughts. The proposed approach and the findings of this study provide valuable methodologies and insights, empowering stakeholders to bolster the resilience of power systems against the potentially devastating effects of future extreme drought events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER: MADWEC Techno-Economic Analysis

The objective of this project was for the facility to conduct a techno-economic assessment (TEA) of the Maximal Asymmetric Drag Wave Energy Converter (MADWEC), developed by the University of Massachusetts Dartmouth (UMass Dartmouth). MADWEC is used for powering remote monitoring and Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) charging systems compared to other existing power supply options. The assessment estimates capital expenditures (CapEx), operational expenditures (OpEx), and power performance for 18 scenarios with the purpose of identifying key cost drivers, comparing total system cost, and comparing the power performance of the power supply options in terms of required installed capacity and estimated theoretical annual energy performance. The 18 assessed scenarios include two end-uses: 1) AUV charging and 2) offshore remote monitoring); three power sources: 1) MADWEC), 2) photovoltaic (PV) solar buoy, 3) and traditional battery swapping); and three locations; 1) nearshore, 2) far-offshore, and 3) high-latitude). In addition, other project goals included developing high level installation, operation, and maintenance plans for each scenario. The techno-economic model, created in Microsoft Excel, estimates CapEx, OpEx, and the power performance of each power supply source. The model has a dynamic format that allows custom inputs to accommodate future changes to the systems being assessed. This is a TEA for the MADWEC project, TEAMER RFTS 7 (request for technical support) program.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Performance Evaluation of Comparative Vacuum Monitoring and Piezoelectric Sensors for Structural Health Monitoring of Rotorcraft Components

The costs associated with the increasing maintenance and surveillance needs of aging structures are rising at an unexpected rate. Multi-site fatigue damage, hidden cracks in hard-to-reach locations, disbonded joints, erosion, impact, and corrosion are among the major flaws encountered in today’s extensive fleet of aging aircraft and space vehicles. Aircraft maintenance and repairs represent about a quarter of a commercial fleet’s operating costs. The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) systems using distributed sensor networks can reduce these costs by facilitating rapid and global assessments of structural integrity. The use of in-situ sensors for real-time health monitoring can overcome inspection impediments stemming from accessibility limitations, complex geometries, and the location and depth of hidden damage. Reliable, structural health monitoring systems can automatically process data, assess structural condition, and signal the need for human intervention. The ease of monitoring an entire on-board network of distributed sensors means that structural health assessments can occur more often, allowing operators to be even more vigilant with respect to flaw onset. SHM systems also allow for condition-based maintenance practices to be substituted for the current time-based or cycle-based maintenance approach thus optimizing maintenance labor. The Federal Aviation Administration has conducted a series of SHM validation and certification programs intended to comprehensively support the evolution and adoption of SHM practices into routine aircraft maintenance practices. This report presents one of those programs involving a Sandia Labs-aviation industry effort to move SHM into routine use for aircraft maintenance. The Airworthiness Assurance NDI Validation Center (AANC) at Sandia Labs, in conjunction with Sikorsky, Structural Monitoring Systems Ltd., Anodyne Electronics Manufacturing Corp., Acellent Technologies Inc., and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) carried out a trial validation and certification program to evaluate Comparative Vacuum Monitoring (CVM) and Piezoelectric Transducers (PZT) as a structural health monitoring solution to specific rotorcraft applications. Validation tasks were designed to address the SHM equipment, the health monitoring task, the resolution required, the sensor interrogation procedures, the conditions under which the monitoring will occur, the potential inspector population, adoption of CVM and PZT systems into rotorcraft maintenance programs and the document revisions necessary to allow for their routine use as an alternate means of performing periodic structural inspections. This program addressed formal SHM technology validation and certification issues so that the full spectrum of concerns, including design, deployment, performance and certification were appropriately considered. Sandia Labs designed, implemented, and analyzed the results from a focused and statistically relevant experimental effort to quantify the reliability of a CVM system applied to Sikorsky S-92 fuselage frame application and a PZT system applied to an S-92 main gearbox mount beam application. The applications included both local and global damage detection assessments. All factors that affect SHM sensitivity were included in this program: flaw size, shape, orientation and location relative to the sensors, as well as operational and environmental variables. Statistical methods were applied to performance data to derive Probability of Detection (POD) values for SHM sensors in a manner that agrees with current nondestructive inspection (NDI) validation requirements and is acceptable to both the aviation industry and regulatory bodies. The validation work completed in this program demonstrated the ability of both CVM and PZT SHM systems to detect cracks in rotorcraft components. It proved the ability to use final system response parameters to provide a Green Light/Red Light (“GO” – “NO GO”) decision on the presence of damage. In additional to quantifying the performance of each SHM system for the trial applications on the S-92 platform, this study also identified specific methods that can be used to optimize damage detection, guidance on deployment scenarios that can affect performance and considerations that must be made to properly apply CVM and PZT sensors. These results support the main goal of safely integrating SHM sensors into rotorcraft maintenance programs. Additional benefits from deploying rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring Systems (HUMS) may be realized when structural assessment data, collected by an SHM system, is also used to detect structural damage to compliment the operational environment monitoring. The use of in-situ sensors for health monitoring of rotorcraft structures can be a viable option for both flaw detection and maintenance planning activities. This formal SHM validation will allow aircraft manufacturers and airlines to confidently make informed decisions about the proper utilization of CVM and PZT technology. It will also streamline future regulatory actions and formal certification measures needed to assure the safe application of SHM solutions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Seismic Risk for CO2 Geologic Storage: Comparative Analysis of the Delaware Basin and Basin and Range Province Projects

ABSTRACT: Effective management of induced seismicity is critical for safe and sustainable CO2 storage. This study evaluates fault slippage risks in the Delaware Basin (Texas) and Basin and Range Province (Utah), integrating geological, operational, and geomechanical parameters to assess fault stability and seismic hazard mitigation. In the Delaware Basin, two sites were analyzed under an injection rate of 20,000 bbl/day over 25 years. One site showed low fault slip risk, while the other exhibited higher reactivation potential due to proximity to critically stressed faults. Sensitivity analysis revealed that increased pore pressure significantly heightened slip potential, highlighting the necessity of precise pressure control and real-time monitoring. In the Basin and Range Province, fault stability was evaluated at Neck of the Desert, Escalante Desert, Parowan, and Beaver sites under injection rates of 8,750 bbl/day per site over 30 years. Minimal fault slip risk was observed at Neck of the Desert and Escalante Desert sites, whereas Parowan and Beaver sites exhibited elevated slip potential due to semi-critically stressed faults sensitive to modest pore pressure increases. The findings demonstrate that fault slippage analysis, combined with sensitivity analysis of pore pressure and friction coefficients, is essential for understanding seismic risks. Continuous monitoring, adaptive injection management, and rigorous geomechanical analysis are key strategies for minimizing induced seismicity in CO2 sequestration projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Enabling a Flexible Grid with Increased Penetration of DER: Techno-economic Analysis of Metal Hydride Thermochemical Energy Storage Integrated with Stirling Engine for Grid Energy Storage Applications

This report summarizes the results of a techno-economic assessment of the capital and operational expenses for 3 scenarios utilizing a TES/Stirling engine system which is charged by an electric heater to provide grid power and energy storage. While there are several integration possibilities and material choices that could be utilized in such systems, three difference scenarios were chosen for this assessment to reflect an anticipated deployment of the technology where each might require different TES system configurations. Additionally, an enhanced version of the HTMH is considered to demonstrate the expected impact on costs with further technology development. The predicted capital and operational LCOS for the system configurations range from $0.0198/kWhr e - $0.0734/kWhr e which compare positively to the LCOS for lithium ion battery storage ranging from $0.087/kWhr e – $0.329/kWhr e . The key drivers for cost improvements to the system are material property enhancements in the HTMH primarily related to reducing the costs associated with the HTMH vessel and heat exchangers. This analysis demonstrates the potential benefits and flexibility of integrating a Stirling engine with a metal hydride-based TES system and suggests that the MH TES technology, at its current level of development, provides a highly competitive alternative to lithium ion batteries for large scale grid energy storage applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of the Distributed Ledger Technology for Energy Sector Industrial and Operational Applications Using the MITRE ATT&CK® ICS Matrix

In recent times, Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) has gained significant attention for its potential application in the energy sector. Utilizing blockchain and DLT has demonstrated the ability to enhance the resilience of the electric infrastructure, which will support a more flexible infrastructure and advance grid modernization. However, the deployment of these technologies increases the overall attack surface. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices have been developed to document an adversary’s tactics and techniques based on real-world observations. The MITRE ATT&CK® matrices provide a common taxonomy for offense and defense and have become a valuable conceptual tool across multiple cybersecurity disciplines for conveying threat intelligence, performing testing through red teaming or adversary emulation, and enhancing network and system defenses against intrusions. The MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) matrix was created to provide knowledge about adversary behavior in the ICS technology domain. This study analyzes the relevance of various tactics and techniques across a seven-layer DLT engineering and cybersecurity stack, known as the DLT stack, designed by the Cybersecurity Taskforce under IEEE P2418.5 - Standard for Blockchain in Energy working group sponsored by Power and Energy Systems - Smart Buildings, Loads and Customer Systems (PES/SBLC) Technical Committee. Additionally, this paper identifies specific mitigation strategies tailored to the energy ICS environment

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Water Management and Costs on CO 2 Geologic Storage Operations in Saline-Bearing Formations

Management of reservoir pressure is expected to be a key issue in the implementation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects, as it may be necessary to produce brine from an aquifer to offset the increase in subsurface pressure.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Assessments of advanced reactor heat supply to high temperature industrial unit operations: Heat Engines and Heat Pumps

In this report, the feasibility of employing Advanced Nuclear Reactors to supply the necessary high-quality heat to Industrial Processes is investigated. As a first step, the most relevant industrial applications that could benefit from this coupling were identified. Four industries including petroleum refining (distillation, catalyst regeneration, hydro-steam cracking), chemical polymers, steel manufacturing (metals annealing/soaking) and cement manufacturing (calcination of limestone and dolomite industries) were considered. An overview of the heat duties, i.e., the temperatures and thermal powers required by representative plants of the different processes, was provided. Secondly, the thermodynamic conditions of the steam produced by representative designs of Advanced Reactor concepts (Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactors, Molten Salt Reactors, and High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors) were summarized. The comparison between the requirements of the industrial processes and the capabilities of the candidate nuclear power plants showed that only a few processes could benefit from the coupling. Although Advanced Reactors operate at higher temperatures than Light Water Reactors, the thermodynamic conditions of the generated steam flow rates are generally not suitable for the selected applications. At the same time, data indicate that most of the processes can be suitably supplied if the temperature of steam is elevated to 900 °C. One possible solution to boost the quality of the steam from the nuclear island involves the use of a heat pump. Based on a technology similar to that found in refrigerators and air conditioners, heat pumps extract heat from a source, elevate its temperature and transfer it to where it is needed. A simple numerical example illustrating the viability of this method is described. Specifically, the energy conversion cycle of a conventional Pressurized Water Reactor was extended to incorporate a compressor to raise the heating value of the steam produced by the reactor. Two reference configurations, i.e., one where the industrial process coupled to the nuclear power plant exhausts saturated liquid and the other where it exhausts saturated steam, were considered. The thermal efficiencies achievable by increasing the heating value of the reactor steam in this way are significantly greater than by direct electric heating.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

Traditional hazards analysis (HA) methods, originally developed to address physical and operational risks, often fall short when it comes to identifying and mitigating cyber threats. These cyber threats pose unique and evolving risks to critical infrastructure and industrial control systems (ICS). This report explores the integration of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles into existing HA methods to enhance their ability to address cyber-induced risks. CIE provides organizations with a practical, cost-effective approach to closing the gap between traditional HA methods and the need for cyber risk mitigation. By leveraging existing safety processes and controls, CIE allows users to examine and mitigate cyber vulnerabilities without overhauling existing HA methods. This report identifies areas where HA and CIE naturally align and where their approaches diverge. It emphasizes how CIE principles can be used to adapt HA methods, broadening their scope to include cyber risks and enabling the mitigation of cyber- induced impacts alongside traditional hazards and failure scenarios. This report examines how CIE can be applied across various HA methods—such as Hazard and Operability Studies (HAZOP), Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), Hazard and Consequence Analysis for Digital Systems (HAZCADS), and Layers of Protection Analysis (LOPA). It provides strategies for integrating CIE to strengthen the identification, assessment, and mitigation of cyber-induced risks. The findings offer a structured entry point for organizations to embed CIE concepts into hazards and safety analyses, as well as broader engineering processes, ultimately supporting the design and operation of a more resilient infrastructure.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Demonstration of Electrolyzer Operation at a Nuclear Plant to Allow for Dynamic Participation in an Organized Electricity Market and In-House Hydrogen Supply

This document details the execution of Cooperative Agreement DE-EE0008849, “demonstration of electrolyzer operation at a nuclear plant to allow for dynamic participation in an organized electricity market and in-house hydrogen supply” during the performance period of 10/1/2019 – 9/30/2024. The project was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE). Constellation Energy Generation, LLC (formerly Exelon Generation Company, LLC) is the prime recipient of the award. Other members of the project team are INL, NREL, ANL and Nel Hydrogen. The main project objective was to demonstrate an end-to-end integrated grid-scale carbon-free H 2 production, storage and utilization pilot plant at a nuclear generating facility. The project also aimed to evaluate market opportunities and regulatory requirements related to the participation of integrated hydrogen production and nuclear plant facilities in organized power markets, by demonstrating dynamic control and operation of the electrolyzer and assessing the economics of dynamic participation combined with the revenue streams from hydrogen production. On March 7th , 2023 Constellation started hydrogen production at it’s Nine Mile Point Nuclear Plant in Oswego, New York. The PEM electrolyzer operating at Nine Mile Point uses 1.25 megawatt of nuclear electricity to produce 560 kilograms of clean hydrogen per day, more than enough to meet the plant’s operational hydrogen use. It will also help set the stage for possible large-scale deployments at other clean energy centers in Constellation’s fleet that would couple clean hydrogen production with storage and other on-site uses. Employing the lessons learned from the 1.25 MW demonstration-scale, nuclear-powered clean hydrogen production facility at Nine Mile Point, Constellation was a major participant in the MachH2 hydrogen hub recently selected for up to $\$$1 billion by the Department of Energy (DOE) as part of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Constellation will use a portion of the hub funding to build the world’s largest nuclear-powered clean hydrogen production facility at its LaSalle Clean Energy Center in Illinois. The project was featured in a number of news articles and press releases and received 2 awards. At the 2023 DOE HFTO’s Annual Merit Review meeting, the P.I. Dr. Uuganbayar Otgonbaatar and project manager Robert Beaumont were recognized for “outstanding achievements in the development and demonstration of a first-of-a-kind clean hydrogen production facility, powered by carbon-free nuclear energy, at the Nine Mile Point Nuclear Station in Oswego, New York.” The project was also awarded 2023 Nuclear Energy Institute’s Top Innovative Practice award.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Traditional Hazards Analysis Methods to Address Cyber Risks

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Applicability of Public Dose Limits to Individuals on the Nevada National Security Site

Historically all persons working on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) were considered subject to worker dose limits when calculations of potential dose from the air pathway were conducted to demonstrate compliance with Title 42 United States Code (USC) Chapter 85, “The Clean Air Act,” and Title 40 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 61, Subpart H, “National Emission Standards for Hazardous Air Pollutants (NESHAP).” Calculations were also conducted for the all-pathways potential dose to demonstrate compliance with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Order DOE O 458.1 Chg. 3, “Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment.” The need to evaluate environmental air sampling locations and past regulator questions about the existence of persons potentially subject to public dose limits being on the NNSS drove this assessment (letter from EPA [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency] Region 9 to DOE/Nevada Operations Office, dated September 3, 1999). This assessment also supports determining those persons subject to public dose limits from the all pathways perspective. A person that is a member of the public is subject to public dose limits.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Discrete-Event Model of WIPP Operations

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is the critical component of the Department of Energy's (DOE) Transuranic Radioactive Waste (TRU) disposition infrastructure. Quantifying the operations ofWIPP with a discrete-event model demonstrates the capability to assess efficiency, identity bottlenecks, and improve future operations. Such a model has been developed with the simulation software ExtendSim. This report outlines the structure of that model, summarizes the model's successful reproduction of the annual amount of emplaced waste, and demonstrates that WIPP is successfully receiving and emplacing waste at a rate consistent with the rate at which the waste arrives. The model serves as a first step toward future production enhancements at WIPP. Those enhancements will rely on close collaboration with the Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO), accurate interpretation and incorporation of the model results, and effective planning with other DOE Environmental Management (DOE-EM) entities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment

This LANSCE Facility Longevity Assessment examined 34 total systems critical to the operation of the LANSCE accelerator complex. These systems are primarily owned, operated, and maintained by AOT Division. Based on the criteria used in this assessment, there are 12 AOT Division systems that are potential high risk as related to longterm LANSCE operations. These systems may also impact the success of LAMP. Also summarized in this report are the facility activities planned over the next decade. These include general facility maintenance and infrastructure upgrades, as well as planned electrical system upgrades. The LANSCE Facility Operations (LFO) Division is responsible for this activity scope and budget planning. Most of the planned activities are general in nature and should have little impact on accelerator operations or LAMP activities as currently envisioned. However, close coordination with between AOT, LFO, and LAMP would be prudent. A next step should be to develop an actionable plan to address the high-risk systems. Potential criteria for developing such a plan could include: (1) Evaluating the global impact of the system (operations, program, safety, etc.), (2) Ranking by impact (ranked now by risk), (3) Estimating cost to implement the corrective actions (Is there already a plan or not?), and (4) Estimating the time required for corrective actions. An alternative could include integration of the assessment data into both the Asset Management System and the Maintenance Analytics Risk Register.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sandia National Laboratories Annual Site Environmental Report, 2019: New Mexico

Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the United States Department of Energy (DOE) National Nuclear Security Administration. The National Nuclear Security Administration’s Sandia Field Office administers the contract and oversees contractor operations at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico. Activities at the site support research and development programs with a wide variety of national security missions, resulting in technologies for nonproliferation, homeland security, energy and infrastructure, and defense systems and assessments. DOE and its management and operating contractor are committed to safeguarding the environment, assessing sustainability practices, and ensuring the validity and accuracy of the monitoring data presented in this Annual Site Environmental Report. This report summarizes the environmental protection and monitoring programs in place at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico, during calendar year 2019. Environmental topics include air quality, ecology, environmental restoration, oil storage, site sustainability, terrestrial surveillance, waste management, water quality, and implementation of the National Environmental Policy Act. This report is prepared in accordance with and as required by DOE O 231.1B, Admin Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and has been approved for public distribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗

DOE OSTI2022

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗