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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1992

Application of engineering codes to the assessment of spacecraft charging induced hazards

One of the major hurdles to developing a better understanding of the environmentally induced interactions in spacecraft systems (spacecraft charging) is the lack of simple tools to analyze the behavior of the spacecraft in a sub-storm environment. The available tool, NASA Charging Analyzer Program (NASCAP), is expensive to use and treats only half of the problem - surface effects only. In response to this need, we have developed, under our IRAD Program, a set of engineering tools that operate on personal computers and addresses both the surface and bulk charging aspects of the interactions. These engineering codes utilize circuit analysis techniques and model simplifications to allow rapid computations. The codes were compared to both NASCAP predictions and to bulk charging data with excellent agreement for both phenomena. The models used in our engineering codes are shown, and in the engineering codes, the models are defined in terms of plates or triangles in an unconfined space. The predictions are based upon current balances to each plate. The code has routines to allow interactions between the plates to simulate 'barrier' effects. The agreement for the predicted differential surface voltages for the model is given. In conducting the comparison of engineering codes to NASCAP predictions, it was found that some inconsistencies existed in the NASCAP code that are not obvious to the user. The use of the grid imposes constraints that voltage gradients exist between the grid points. This allows the existence of voltage gradients in conductors and influences surface resistivity predictions. These points are discussed along with the predictions for treating these inconsistencies properly. The model predictions for a variable intensity substorm is also presented.

Stevens, N. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Younger facial looks are associate with a lower likelihood of several age-related morbidities in the middle-aged to elderly

Abstract Background Looking older for one’s chronological age is associated with a higher mortality rate. Yet it remains unclear how perceived facial age relates to morbidity and the degree to which facial ageing reflects systemic ageing of the human body. Objectives To investigate the association between ΔPA and age-related morbidities of different organ systems, where ΔPA represents the difference between perceived age (PA) and chronological age. Methods We performed a cross-sectional analysis on data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort study in the Netherlands. High-resolution facial photographs of 2679 men and women aged 51.5–87.8 years of European descent were used to assess PA. PA was estimated and scored in 5-year categories using these photographs by a panel of men and women who were blinded for chronological age and medical history. A linear mixed model was used to generate the mean PAs. The difference between the mean PA and chronological age was calculated (ΔPA), where a higher (positive) ΔPA means that the person looks younger for their age and a lower (negative) ΔPA that the person looks older. ΔPA was tested as a continuous variable for association with ageing-related morbidities including cardiovascular, pulmonary, ophthalmological, neurocognitive, renal, skeletal and auditory morbidities in separate regression analyses, adjusted for age and sex (model 1) and additionally for body mass index, smoking and sun exposure (model 2). Results We observed 5-year higher ΔPA (i.e. looking younger by 5 years for one’s age) to be associated with less osteoporosis [odds ratio (OR) 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62–0.93], less chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR 0.85, 95% CI 0.77–0.95), less age-related hearing loss (model 2; B = −0.76, 95% CI −1.35 to −0.17) and fewer cataracts (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.73–0.97), but with better global cognitive functioning (g-factor; model 2; B = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04–0.10). Conclusions PA is associated with multiple morbidities and better cognitive function, suggesting that systemic ageing and cognitive ageing are, to an extent, externally visible in the human face.

Mekić, Selma↗
NASA NTRS1995

Optical fiber sensors for damage analysis in aerospace materials

Under this grant, fiber optic sensors were investigated for use in the nondestructive evaluation of aging aircraft. Specifically, optical fiber sensors for detection and location of impacts on a surface, and for detection of corrosion in metals were developed. The use of neural networks was investigated for determining impact location by processing the output of a network of fiberoptic strain sensors distributed on a surface. This approach employs triangulation to determine location by comparing the arrival times at several sensors, of the acoustic signal generated by the impact. For this study, a neural network simulator running on a personal computer was used to train a network using a back-propagation algorithm. Fiber optic extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometer (EFPI) strain sensors are attached to or embedded in the surface, so that stress waves emanating from an impact can be detected. The ability of the network to determine impact location by time-or-arrival of acoustic signals was assessed by comparing network outputs with actual experimental results using impacts on a panel instrumented with optical fiber sensors. Using the neural network to process the sensor outputs, the impact location can be inferred to centimeter range accuracy directly from the arrival time data. In addition, the network can be trained to determine impact location, regardless of material anisotropy. Results demonstrate that a back-propagation network identifies impact location for an anisotropic graphite/bismaleimide plate with the same accuracy as that for an isotropic aluminum plate. Two different approaches were investigated for the development of fiber optic sensors for corrosion detection in metals, both utilizing optical fiber sensors with metal coatings. In the first approach, an extrinsic Fabry-Perot interferometric fiber optic strain sensor was placed under tensile stress, and while in the resulting strained position, a thick coating of metal was applied. Due to an increase in the quantity of material, the sensor does not return to its original position upon removal of the applied stress, and some residual strain is maintained within the sensor element. As the metal thickness decreases due to corrosion, this strain is released, providing the sensing mechanism for corrosion detection. In the second approach, photosensitive optical fibers with long period Bragg gratings in the core were coated with metal. The Bragg gratings serve to couple core modes at discrete wavelengths to cladding modes. Since cladding modes interact with the metal coating surrounding the fiber cladding, the specific wavelengths coupled from core to cladding depend on the refractive index of the metal coating. Therefore, as the metal corrodes, the resulting change in index of the coating may be measured by measuring the change in wavelength of the coupled mode. Results demonstrate that both approaches can be successfully used to track the loss in metal coating on the optical fiber sensors due to corrosion.

Schindler, Paul↗
NASA NTRS1999

Kennedy Space Center Coronary Heart Disease Risk Screening Program

The number one cause of death in the U.S. is coronary heart disease (CHD). It is probably a major cause of death and disability in the lives of employees at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) as well. The KSC Biomedical Office used a multifactorial mathematical formula from the Framingham Heart Study to calculate CHD risk probabilities for individuals in a segment of the KSC population that required medical evaluation for job certification. Those assessed to be high-risk probabilities will be targeted for intervention. Every year, several thousand KSC employees require medical evaluations for job related certifications. Most medical information for these evaluations is gathered on-site at one of the KSC or Cape Canaveral Air Station (CCAS) medical clinics. The formula used in the Framingham Heart Study allows calculation of a person's probability of acquiring CHD within 10 years. The formula contains the following variables: Age, Diabetes, Smoking, Left Ventricular Hypertrophy, Blood Pressure (Systolic or Diastolic), Cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol. The formula is also gender specific. It was used to calculate the 10-year probabilities of CHD in KSC employees who required medical evaluations for job certifications during a one-year time frame. This KSC population was profiled and CHD risk reduction interventions could be targeted to those at high risk. Population risk could also be periodically reevaluated to determine the effectiveness of intervention. A 10-year CHD risk probability can be calculated for an individual quite easily while gathering routine medical information. An employee population's CHD risk probability can be profiled graphically revealing high risk segments of the population which can be targeted for risk reduction intervention. The small audience of NASA/contractor physicians, nurses and exercise/fitness professionals at the breakout session received the lecture very well. Approximately one third indicated by a show of hands that they would be interested in implementing a similar program at their NASA Center. Questions were asked pertaining to standardization for age, the validity of using the idealized male values also for the female population, and indications of the screening test's sensitivity and specificity.

Tipton, David A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine many of these theoretical assumptions, including the mathematical basis for the hazard calculations, and outlining the conditions under which the simplifying assumptions hold. This study also employs empirical and theoretical information to test these assumptions, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of these calculations in the future.

Matney, Mark↗
NASA NTRS2016

Statistical Issues for Calculating Reentry Hazards

A number of statistical tools have been developed over the years for assessing the risk of reentering object to human populations. These tools make use of the characteristics (e.g., mass, shape, size) of debris that are predicted by aerothermal models to survive reentry. This information, combined with information on the expected ground path of the reentry, is used to compute the probability that one or more of the surviving debris might hit a person on the ground and cause one or more casualties. The statistical portion of this analysis relies on a number of assumptions about how the debris footprint and the human population are distributed in latitude and longitude, and how to use that information to arrive at realistic risk numbers. This inevitably involves assumptions that simplify the problem and make it tractable, but it is often difficult to test the accuracy and applicability of these assumptions. This paper builds on previous IAASS work to re-examine one of these theoretical assumptions.. This study employs empirical and theoretical information to test the assumption of a fully random decay along the argument of latitude of the final orbit, and makes recommendations how to improve the accuracy of this calculation in the future.

Bacon, John B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Evidence for Human System Risk Assessment

Understanding the kinds of evidence available and using the best evidence to answer a question is critical to evidenced-based decision-making, and it requires synthesis of evidence from a variety of sources. Categorization of human system risks in spaceflight, in particular, focuses on how well the integration and interpretation of all available evidence informs the risk statement that describes the relationship between spaceflight hazards and an outcome of interest. A mature understanding and categorization of these risks requires: 1) sufficient characterization of risk, 2) sufficient knowledge to determine an acceptable level of risk (i.e., a standard), 3) development of mitigations to meet the acceptable level of risk, and 4) identification of factors affecting generalizability of the evidence to different design reference missions. In the medical research community, evidence is often ranked by increasing confidence in findings gleaned from observational and experimental research (e.g., "levels of evidence"). However, an approach based solely on aspects of experimental design is problematic in assessing human system risks for spaceflight. For spaceflight, the unique challenges and opportunities include: (1) The independent variables in most evidence are the hazards of spaceflight, such as space radiation or low gravity, which cannot be entirely duplicated in terrestrial (Earth-based) analogs, (2) Evidence is drawn from multiple sources including medical and mission operations, Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH), spaceflight research (LSDA), and relevant environmental & terrestrial databases, (3) Risk metrics based primarily on LSAH data are typically derived from available prevalence or incidence data, which may limit rigorous interpretation, (4) The timeframe for obtaining adequate spaceflight sample size (n) is very long, given the small population, (5) Randomized controlled trials are unattainable in spaceflight, (6) Collection of personal and environmental data on the astronaut population may create opportunities for advanced analytics and human-environment modeling that goes beyond that achieved in isolated experimental designs; and (7) Translation of relevant research to operations is a complex, transdisciplinary enterprise in which the approach must apply across the physical, biological, behavioral, and social sciences. The approach to synthesizing evidence must address both source and fidelity of data, and reflect the most general attributes of quality of evidence in science and engineering: reliability and validity. The authors are developing a two-factor approach which includes the various kinds of evidence required to understand risks and for the integrated interpretation of all evidence that is essential to develop standards and countermeasures. A unified framework for aggregating and assessing different kinds of evidence provides a consistent, traceable, evidence-based decision-making process to translate research to operations in an environment where engineers, scientists, physicians, and managers all engage in analyzing the trade space of vehicle design, standards, requirements and solutions for spaceflight.

Steinberg, S. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Salt International Collaborations (FY22 Update)

This report summarizes the international collaborations conducted by Sandia funded by the US Department of Energy Office (DOE) of Nuclear Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science & Technology (SFWST) as part of the Sandia National Laboratories Salt R&D and Salt International work packages. This report satisfies the level-three milestone M3SF-22SN010303063. Several stand-alone sections make up this summary report, each completed by the participants. The sections discuss international collaborations on geomechanical benchmarking exercises (WEIMOS), granular salt reconsolidation (KOMPASS), engineered barriers (RANGERS), numerical model comparison (DECOVALEX) and an NEA Salt Club working group on the development of scenarios as part of the performance assessment development process. Finally, we summarize events related to the US/German Workshop on Repository Research, Design and Operations. The work summarized in this annual update has occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, and little international or domestic travel has occurred. Most of the collaborations have been conducted via email or as virtual meetings, but a slow return to travel and in-person meetings has begun.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

A prospective study on myocardial injury after BNT162b2 mRNA COVID ‐19 fourth dose vaccination in healthy persons

Aims To prospectively evaluate the incidence of myocardial injury after the administration of the fourth dose BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine (Pfizer‐BioNTech) against COVID‐19. Methods and results Health care workers who received the BNT162b2 vaccine during the fourth dose campaign had blood samples collected for high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin (hs‐cTn) during vaccine administration and 2–4 days afterward. Vaccine‐related myocardial injury was defined as hs‐cTn elevation above the 99th percentile upper reference limit and >50% increase from baseline measurement. Participants with evidence of myocardial injury underwent assessment for possible myocarditis. Of 324 participants, 192 (59.2%) were female and the mean age was 51.8 ± 15.0 years. Twenty‐one (6.5%) participants had prior COVID‐19 infection, the mean number of prior vaccine doses was 2.9 ± 0.4, and the median time from the last dose was 147 (142–157) days. Reported vaccine‐related adverse reactions included local pain at injection site in 57 (17.59%), fatigue in 39 (12.04%), myalgia in 32 (9.88%), sore throat in 21 (6.48%), headache in 18 (5.5%), fever ≥38°C in 16 (4.94%), chest pain in 12 (3.7%), palpitations in 7 (2.16%), and shortness of breath in one (0.3%) participant. Vaccine‐related myocardial injury was demonstrated in two (0.62%) participants, one had mild symptoms and one was asymptomatic; both had a normal electrocardiogram and echocardiography. Conclusion In a prospective investigation, an increase in serum troponin levels was documented among 0.62% of healthy health care workers receiving the fourth dose BNT162b2 vaccine. The two cases had mild or no symptoms and no clinical sequela. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT05308680.

Levi, Nir↗
NASA NTRS2014

Expanding the Description of Spaceflight Effects beyond Bone Mineral Density [BMD]: Trabecular Bone Score [TBS] in ISS Astronauts

Dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry [DXA] is the widely-applied bone densitometry method used to diagnose osteoporosis in a terrestrial population known to be at risk for age-related bone loss. This medical test, which measures areal bone mineral density [aBMD] of clinically-relevant skeletal sites (e.g., hip and spine), helps the clinician to identify which persons, among postmenopausal women and men older than 50 years, are at high risk for low trauma or fragility fractures and might require an intervention. The most recognized osteoporotic fragility fracture is the vertebral compression fracture which can lead to kyphosis or hunched backs typically seen in the elderly. DXA measurement of BMD however is recognized to be insufficient as a sole index for assessing fracture risk. DXA's limitation may be related to its inability to monitor changes in structural parameters, such as trabecular vs. cortical bone volumes, bone geometry or trabecular microarchitecture. Hence, in order to understand risks to human health and performance due to space exposure, NASA needs to expand its measurements of bone to include other contributors to skeletal integrity. To this aim, the Bone and Mineral Lab conducted a pilot study for a novel measurement of bone microarchitecture that can be obtained by retrospective analysis of DXA scans. Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) assesses changes to trabecular microarchitecture by measuring the grey color "texture" information extracted from DXA images of the lumbar spine. An analysis of TBS in 51 ISS astronauts was conducted to assess if TBS could detect 1) an effect of spaceflight and 2) a response to countermeasures independent of DXA BMD. In addition, changes in trunk body lean tissue mass and in trunk body fat tissue mass were also evaluated to explore an association between body composition, as impacted by ARED exercise, and bone microarchitecture. The pilot analysis of 51 astronaut scans of the lumbar spine suggests that, following an ISS mission, DXA BMD and TBS are detecting different effects of ARED exercise and of ARED + Bisphosphonate on the lumbar spine of astronauts. There is emerging evidence associating reduced TBS with terrestrial metabolic bone disorders where a TBS <1.200 is associated with "degraded" while > 1.350 is associated with "normal." However, it is not possible to conclude how the spaceflight-induced changes in TBS increase risk for vertebral fractures in the astronaut or if changes in body composition of the trunk region could be an indirect method of assessing exercise effect on bone microarchitecture. More importantly, this pilot analysis demonstrates a new, minimal risk approach for monitoring changes to vertebral bone microarchitecture. This method could help assess the combined skeletal effects of spaceflight with the effects of aging in the astronaut after return to Earth.

Sibonga, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS1991

An assessment of NASA master directory/catalog interoperability for interdisciplinary study of the global water cycle

The most important issue facing science is understanding global change; the causes, the processes involved and their consequences. The key to success in this massive Earth science research effort will depend on efficient identification and access to the most data available across the atmospheric, oceanographic, and land sciences. Current mechanisms used by earth scientists for accessing these data fall far short of meeting this need. Scientists must as a result frequently rely on a priori knowledge and informal person to person networks to find relevant data. The Master Directory/Catalog Interoperability Program (MC/CI) undertaken by NASA is an important step in overcoming these problems. The stated goal of the MD project is to enable researchers to efficiently identify, locate, and obtain access to space and Earth science data.

Peuquet, Donna J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Reduced cost alternatives to premise wiring using ATM and microcellular technologies

The cost of premises wiring keeps increasing due to personnel moves, new equipment, capacity upgrades etc. It would be desirable to have a wireless interface from the workstations to the fixed network, so as to minimize the wiring changes needed. New technologies such as microcellular personal communication systems are promising to bring down the cost of wireless communication. Another promising technology is Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA), which could dramatically increase the bandwidth available for wireless connections. In addition, Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) technology is emerging as a technique for integrated management of voice, data, and video traffic on a single network. The focus of this investigation will be to assess the future utility of these new technologies for reducing the premise wiring cost at KSC. One of the issues to be studied is the cost comparison of 'old' versus 'new,' especially as time and technology progress. An additional issue for closer study is a feasible time-line for progress in technological capability.

Gejji, Raghvendra R.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modern Senicide in the Face of a Pandemic: An Examination of Public Discourse and Sentiment About Older Adults and COVID-19 Using Machine Learning

Objectives This study examined public discourse and sentiment regarding older adults and COVID-19 on social media and assessed the extent of ageism in public discourse. Methods Twitter data (N = 82,893) related to both older adults and COVID-19 and dated from January 23 to May 20, 2020, were analyzed. We used a combination of data science methods (including supervised machine learning, topic modeling, and sentiment analysis), qualitative thematic analysis, and conventional statistics. Results The most common category in the coded tweets was “personal opinions” (66.2%), followed by “informative” (24.7%), “jokes/ridicule” (4.8%), and “personal experiences” (4.3%). The daily average of ageist content was 18%, with the highest of 52.8% on March 11, 2020. Specifically, more than 1 in 10 (11.5%) tweets implied that the life of older adults is less valuable or downplayed the pandemic because it mostly harms older adults. A small proportion (4.6%) explicitly supported the idea of just isolating older adults. Almost three-quarters (72.9%) within “jokes/ridicule” targeted older adults, half of which were “death jokes.” Also, 14 themes were extracted, such as perceptions of lockdown and risk. A bivariate Granger causality test suggested that informative tweets regarding at-risk populations increased the prevalence of tweets that downplayed the pandemic. Discussion Ageist content in the context of COVID-19 was prevalent on Twitter. Information about COVID-19 on Twitter influenced public perceptions of risk and acceptable ways of controlling the pandemic. Finaly, public education on the risk of severe illness is needed to correct misperceptions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Tests Designed to Measure Individual Sensorimotor Subsystem Perfomance to Predict Locomotor Adaptability

Astronauts experience sensorimotor disturbances during the initial exposure to microgravity and during the readapation phase following a return to a gravitational environment. These alterations may lead to disruption in the ability to perform mission critical functions during and after these gravitational transitions. Astronauts show significant inter-subject variation in adaptive capability following gravitational transitions. The way each individual's brain synthesizes the available visual, vestibular and somatosensory information is likely the basis for much of the variation. Identifying the presence of biases in each person's use of information available from these sensorimotor subsystems and relating it to their ability to adapt to a novel locomotor task will allow us to customize a training program designed to enhance sensorimotor adaptability. Eight tests are being used to measure sensorimotor subsystem performance. Three of these use measures of body sway to characterize balance during varying sensorimotor challenges. The effect of vision is assessed by repeating conditions with eyes open and eyes closed. Standing on foam, or on a support surface that pitches to maintain a constant ankle angle provide somatosensory challenges. Information from the vestibular system is isolated when vision is removed and the support surface is compromised, and it is challenged when the tasks are done while the head is in motion. The integration and dominance of visual information is assessed in three additional tests. The Rod & Frame Test measures the degree to which a subject's perception of the visual vertical is affected by the orientation of a tilted frame in the periphery. Locomotor visual dependence is determined by assessing how much an oscillating virtual visual world affects a treadmill-walking subject. In the third of the visual manipulation tests, subjects walk an obstacle course while wearing up-down reversing prisms. The two remaining tests include direct measures of knee and ankle proprioception and a functional movement assessment that screens for movement restrictions and asymmetries. To assess each subject's locomotor adaptability subjects walk for twenty minutes on a treadmill that oscillates laterally at 0.3 Hz. Throughout the test metabolic cost provides a measure of exertion and step frequency provides a measure of stability. Additionally, at four points during the perturbation period, reaction time tests are used to probe changes in the amount of mental effort being used to perform the task. As with the adaptive capability observed in astronauts during gravitational transitions, our data shows significant variability between subjects. To aid in the analysis of the results, custom software tools have been developed to enhance in the visualization of the large number of output variables. Preliminary analyses of the data collected to date do not show a strong relationship between adaptability and any single predictor variable. Analysis continues to identify a multifactorial predictor outcome "signature" that do inform us of locomotor adaptability.

Peters, B. T.↗
NASA NTRS1980

As assessment of power system vulnerability to release of carbon fibers during commercial aviation accidents

The vulnerability of a power distribution system in Bedford and Lexington, Massachusetts to power outages as a result of exposure to carbon fibers released in a commercial aviation accident in 1993 was examined. Possible crash scenarios at Logan Airport based on current operational data and estimated carbon fiber usage levels were used to predict exposure levels and occurrence probabilities. The analysis predicts a mean time between carbon fiber induced power outages of 2300 years with an expected annual consequence of 0.7 persons losing power. In comparison to historical outage data for the system, this represents a 0.007% increase in outage rate and 0.07% increase in consequence.

Larocque, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Portable Immune-Assessment System

Portable immune-assessment system developed for use in rapidly identifying infections or contaminated environment. System combines few specific fluorescent reagents for identifying immune-cell dysfunction, toxic substances, buildup of microbial antigens or microbial growth, and potential identification of pathogenic microorganisms using fluorescent microplate reader linked to laptop computer. By using few specific dyes for cell metabolism, DNA/RNA conjugation, specific enzyme activity, or cell constituents, one makes immediate, onsite determination of person's health or of contamination of environment.

Pierson, Duane L.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic inference in very large universes

Our current favored cosmological theories allow for the striking and controversial possibility that the observable universe is just a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters that describe the effective, low-energy laws of physics vary from one region to another. The controversy is largely driven by the fact that such a “very large universe” is mostly observationally inaccessible to us, so the issue arises of how we can reasonably assess a theory that describes such a universe. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian method for theory assessment based on theory-generated probability distributions for our observations. We focus on the principles that define this method, leaving aside concerns about how, in practice, one would carry out the required calculations. (One important issue that we set aside is the measure problem.) We argue that cosmological theories can be tested by the standard method of Bayesian updating, but we need to use theoretical predictions for “first-person” probabilities—that is, probabilities that we should use for our observations, taking into account all relevant selection effects. These selection effects can vary from one observer to another and can vary with time, so, in principle, first-person probabilities are defined for each observer instant—an observer at a specific instant of time. Calculations of first-person probabilities should take into account everything that the observer believes about herself and her surroundings, which we refer to as her subjective state. If the universe is very large, a theory might predict that there are many observer instants in the same subjective state; we argue that first-person probabilities should be calculated using a principle of self-locating indifference (PSLI), the assumption that any real observer should make predictions for her future as if she were chosen randomly and uniformly from the theoretically predicted observer instants that share her subjective state. We believe the PSLI is intuitively very reasonable, but we also argue that, if the theory is correct, the use of this principle maximizes the expected fraction of observers who will make correct predictions. A further complication is that cosmological theories are not expected to fully predict the detailed properties of the universe, but rather will predict a set of possible universes, each with a probability. Different possible universes will generically have different numbers of observers. We argue that, in the calculation of first-person probabilities, the probability for each possible universe should be weighted by the number of observer instants in the specified subjective state that it contains. These issues have been controversial in the literature, so we also provide a rebuttal to the claim that principles like the PSLI involve a “selection fallacy”; a rebuttal to what we dub the principle of required certainty; an argument rejecting theories that predict a preponderance of Boltzmann brains; a rebuttal to a parable about humans and Jovians used by Hartle and Srednicki to argue that assumptions of typicality can lead to absurd consequences; and, finally, a discussion about how the use of “old evidence” can be fit into a Bayesian mold.

Azhar, Feraz [University of Notre Dame, IN (United↗
NASA NTRS1986

An assessment of the status and trends in satellite communications 1986-2000: An information document prepared for the Communications Subcommittee of the Space Applications Advisory Committee

This is a response to a Space Applications Advisory Committee (SAAC) request for information about the status and trends in satellite communications, to be used to support efforts to conceive and recommend long range goals for NASA communications activities. Included in this document are assessments of: (1) the outlook for satellite communications, including current applications, potential future applications, and impact of the changing environment such as optical fiber networks, the Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) standard, and the rapidly growing market for Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT); (2) the restrictions imposed by our limited spectrum resource; and (3) technology needs indicated by future trends. Potential future systems discussed include: large powerful satellites for providing personal communications; VSAT compatible satellites with onboard switching and having voice capability; large satellites which offer a pervasive T1 network service (primarily for video-phone); and large geostationary communications facilities which support common use by several carriers. Also, discussion is included of NASA particular needs and possible future systems. Based on the mentioned system concepts, specific technology recommendations are provided for the time frames of now - 1993, 1994 - 2000, and 2000 - 2010.

Poley, W. A.↗