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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Two-Frequency RF Fields Induced Multipactor in Coaxial Transmission Lines

Multipactor is a nonlinear discharge phenomenon that occurs in vacuum RF systems, potentially leading to signal distortion, power loss, and even permanent damage to high-power components. This study presents a detailed investigation of two-surface multipactor in coaxial transmission lines under two-frequency excitation, using one-dimensional (1D) Monte Carlo simulations validated by three-dimensional (3D) Particle-in-Cell (PIC) results and experimental data. Introducing a second carrier mode is shown to suppress multipactor by reshaping and shrinking the susceptibility region, with the extent and location of suppression strongly dependent on the device aspect ratio and the relative phase of the second mode. Distinct suppression patterns emerge across different frequency–gap distance (fd) regimes, and in certain cases, susceptibility expansion is also observed. The study identifies and distinguishes pure and mixed multipactor modes in coaxial geometry, where analytical mode boundaries are not readily defined. Unlike planar systems, pure-mode regions in coaxial structures overlap with mixed-mode domains, complicating classification. Image charge forces are found to have minimal effect on susceptibility thresholds but do influence electron growth rates. These findings provide new insights into waveform-driven control of multipactor in high-power RF systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Symmetry breaking during low-temperature domain formation in micron-sized magnetite crystals

We report the results of synchrotron Bragg Coherent x-ray Diffraction Imaging (BCDI) experiments to investigate domain formation in a micron-sized magnetite crystal undergoing the Verwey transition at low temperature. A strong splitting of the measured 311 Bragg reflection was observed in the low-temperature phase, indicating the formation of domains. BCDI revealed pronounced strain distributions, characterized by a clear layered stripe domain structure in real-space. Stripes were seen only along the [001] crystallographic direction, normal to the substrate surface direction, breaking the symmetry of the cubic high-temperature phase. It is argued that other domain directions were suppressed by the sample mounting orientation. More surprisingly, only a single domain orientation was observed, suggesting an additional symmetry-breaking influence originating from the shape of the crystal. Gaining insight into how thermal effects induce the formation of layered or striped phases offers a valuable framework for understanding the development of mesoscopic domains and strain patterns in functional materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models

Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2024

An uncertain future change in aridity over the tropics

Abstract An ensemble of climate models from phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project shows that temperature and potential evapotranspiration (PET) are projected to increase globally towards the end of the 21st century. However, climate models show a spatially heterogeneous change in precipitation over the tropics. Consequently, future changes in aridity (a measure of water availability) are complex and location-dependent. We assess future changes in aridity using three climate models and several single-forcing experiments. Near-term (2021–2040) changes in aridity are small, and we focus instead on its long-term (2081–2100) changes. We show that the increase in greenhouse gases (GHG) primarily explains the spatial pattern, magnitude and ensemble spread of the long-term future changes in aridity. On this timescale, the effects of changes in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are moderate compared to the effects of increases in atmospheric GHG concentrations. Model diversity in the responses to GHG concentration is large over northern Africa and North and South America. We suggest the large uncertainty is due to differences between models in simulating the effects of an increase in GHG concentrations on surface air temperature over the North Atlantic Ocean, on the interhemispheric temperature gradient, and on PET over North and South America.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of edge bead removal (EBR) process to enhance defect reduction in optical lithography

Defect reduction remains a critical objective in the integrated circuit manufacturing process, particularly within the highly re-entrant lithography modules where minimizing defects is crucial. Defects at the wafer edge can contaminate lithography modules and downstream processing equipment, leading to redistribution onto the wafer surface and adversely affecting overall device yield. A persistent challenge in the resist coating process is the formation of resist edge beads, driven by the strong Van der Waals attraction of excess photoresist (PR) to itself and the underlying substrate. The edge bead removal (EBR) process is a standard cleaning step designed to eliminate these edge beads and prevent potential contamination. Here, in this study, we identify the sources of EBR induced defects and additional EBR process encroachment toward edge patterning during the EBR cleaning process. This study provides a comprehensive study aimed at optimizing the EBR cleaning process to effectively eliminate EBR-induced defects, thereby enhancing overall device yield. Specifically, we identify three primary defects induced by the EBR cleaning process: rainbow-type, finger-shaped, and teardrop-type defects. Our experimental study reveals that in addition to EBR rinse time, PR cast time is crucial parameters contributing to the formation of these defects. By properly optimizing the PR cast time and EBR rinse time, we were able to remove nearly 100 % of dense clusters of defects that were easily visible even at low magnification optical microscopy throughout the wafer edge. We observed that shorter PR casting times shows edge defects caused by inefficient EBR process because of insufficient time for PR to fully settle causing superfluous PR to continue flowing toward wafer edge during EBR clearing step, leading to partial removal of PR at the wafer edge and the formation of rainbow defects. Proper optimization of both PR casting time and EBR chemistries dispense time is essential to resolve these defects, ensuring efficient EBR cleaning process and improved overall device yield.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Two-frequency RF fields induced multipactor in coaxial transmission lines

This study presents a comprehensive investigation of two-surface multipactor discharge in coaxial transmission lines under two-frequency radio frequency (RF) excitation using one-dimensional Monte Carlo simulations validated against three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations and experimental data. The results show that introducing a second carrier mode can suppress multipactor by reshaping and shrinking the susceptibility region, with the extent and location of suppression strongly dependent on the device's aspect ratio and the relative phase of the second carrier mode. Distinct suppression patterns are observed across different fd regimes, while in some cases, susceptibility expansion also occurs under two-frequency operation. A key outcome is the identification and delineation of pure and mixed multipactor modes in coaxial geometry, where analytical mode boundaries are not readily available. Unlike planar geometries, pure-mode regions in coaxial systems overlap with mixed-mode domains, complicating mode identification. Additionally, image charge forces are found to have negligible influence on susceptibility thresholds but strongly affect electron growth rates. These findings offer valuable insights into the use of waveform engineering for controlling multipactor in high-power RF systems.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probing Surface Plasmon Dynamics in Periodic Nanostructures through Ultrafast Electron Microscopy

Surface plasmon polaritons (SPPs) can be manipulated to localize and guide light in subwavelength distances, enabling them to find applications in a wide range of areas, from sensing to quantum computing. Among several methods of SPP excitation, periodic arrays of nano- and microstructures are of particular interest, as they enable engineering SPP properties through structural parameters. Here, in this study, using the photon-induced near-field electron microscopy (PINEM) technique, we investigated the mode formation, coupling, interference, and decay of SPPs in square and hexagonal arrays of circular nanoholes under both visible and near-infrared excitation. Polarization-resolved analysis revealed the key factors governing SPP localization and interference patterns, showing that the periodicity and symmetry of the array primarily determine the SPP interference patterns and their orientation, while pump polarization mainly modulates their intensity. Time-resolved PINEM measurements demonstrated the spatial dependence of the SPP temporal characteristics. In addition, cathodoluminescence (CL) spectroscopy was employed to examine the intrinsic plasmonic characteristics of the structure. Finite difference time domain (FDTD) simulations showed strong agreement with both PINEM and CL measurements on the spatial and spectral behavior of SPPs. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of SPPs on nanostructures beyond the diffraction limit is crucial for optimizing plasmonic structures for advanced photonic and quantum technologies.

Plasmonics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shallow Soil Response to a Buried Chemical Explosion With Geophones and Distributed Acoustic Sensing

Abstract Shallow sediments can respond non‐linearly to large dynamic strains and undergo a subsequent healing phase as the material gradually recovers following the passing of seismic waves. This study focuses on the physical changes in the subsurface caused by the shaking from a buried chemical explosion detonated in a borehole in Nevada, USA, as a part of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II. The explosion damaged the shallow subsurface and modified the frequency content recorded by 491 geophones and 2240 Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) channels within 2.5 km from surface ground zero. We observe a gradual shift of resonance frequencies in the 10–25 Hz frequency band in the hours following the explosion and develop a method to characterize the related logarithm‐type healing process of the shallow (i.e., upper ∼25 m) subsurface. We find that stronger levels of ground motion increase the relative degree of damage and duration of the subsurface healing; with the spall region exhibiting the largest degree of damage and longest healing recovery time. We observe coherent spatial patterns of damage with the region located to the southeast of the explosion exhibiting more damage than the southwest region. This study demonstrates that both DAS and co‐located geophones capture similar temporal changes associated with the physical processes occurring in the subsurface, with the high‐density sampling of DAS measurements enabling a new capability to monitor the fine‐scale changes of the Earth's shallow subsurface following the detonation of a buried explosion.

Viens, Loïc↗
DOE OSTI2026

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Observational ozone datasets over the global oceans and polar regions (version 2024)

Studying tropospheric ozone over the remote areas of the planet, such as the open oceans and the polar regions, is crucial to understand the role of ozone as a global climate forcer and regulator of atmospheric oxidative capacity. A focus on the pristine oceanic and polar regions complements the available land-based datasets and provides insights into key photochemical and depositional loss processes that control the concentrations and spatiotemporal variability in ozone as well as the physicochemical mechanisms driving these patterns. However, an assessment of the role of ozone over the oceanic and polar regions has been hampered by a lack of comprehensive observational datasets. Here, we present the first comprehensive collection of ozone data over the oceans and the polar regions. The overall dataset consists of 77 ship cruises/buoy-based observations and 48 aircraft-based campaigns. The dataset, consisting of more than 630 000 independent ozone measurement data points covering the period from 1977 to 2022 and an altitude range from the surface to 5000 m (with a focus on the lowest 2000 m), allows systematic analyses of the spatiotemporal distribution and long-term trends over the 11 defined ocean/polar regions. The datasets from ships, buoys, and aircraft are complemented by ozonesonde data from 29 launch sites or field campaigns and by 21 non-polar and 17 polar ground-based station datasets. The datasets contain information on how long the observed air masses were isolated from land, as estimated by backward trajectories from the individual observation points. To extract observations representative of oceanic conditions, we recommend using a subset of the data with an isolation time of 72 h or longer, from the analysis with coincident radon observations. These filtered oceanic and polar data showed typically flat diurnal cycles at high latitudes, whereas daytime decreases in ozone (11 %–16 %) were observed at lower latitudes. The ship/buoy- and aircraft-based datasets presented here will supplement the land-based ones in the TOAR-II (Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report Phase II) database to provide a fully global assessment of tropospheric ozone. The described dataset is available at https://doi.org/10.17596/0004044 (Kanaya et al., 2025).

Kanaya, Yugo [Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Scienc↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control over Banded Morphologies and Circular Dichroism in Chiral Halide Perovskites

Chiral halide perovskites (c-HPs) merge the chirality of organic cations with the semiconducting properties of metal halide frameworks, creating a family of chiral semiconductors with tunable chiroptoelectronic behavior. Here, we describe the impact of periodic banded morphologies of textured c-HP ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 films (NEA = 1- (1-naphthyl)ethylammonium) on their chiroptical behavior. Due to the interplay between the crystalline and glassy phases, the c-HP film growth is driven by rhythmic precipitation, producing a distinctive controllable radial banded pattern with the ( R/S -NEA) 2 PbBr 4 inorganic planes oriented parallel to the substrate. The banded morphology can be controlled, as evidenced by the growth temperature dictating the ridge-to-ridge spacing as well as the density of banded regions. The resulting circular dichroism (CD) spectral shape, intensity, and polarity vary in a seemingly random manner across processing conditions. However, these spectral features can be explained by considering key features of the banded morphology, such as refraction of the incident light due to surface morphology, birefringence, and stacked, rotated crystallites. These effects cannot be canceled by averaging front and back CD spectra of c-HP films, and our model incorporating these effects reproduces all observed CD spectra remarkably well. The control over the c-HP morphology and prediction capabilities of our CD modeling leads to further understanding of this class of semiconductors and the possibility of exploiting structural features for light polarization control akin to enhanced metamaterials.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

How Well Can CMIP6 Models Represent the Observed Influence of the Pacific and Indian Oceans on the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall?

This study evaluates the ability of CMIP6 climate models to simulate the observed effects of tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) variability. Using observational data and the large ensemble historical simulations of seven CMIP6 models from 1950 to 2014, we applied a cyclostationary linear inverse model (CS-LIM) to isolate the impacts of tropical Pacific SSTAs, Indian Ocean SSTAs and their interaction on the interannual variability of ISMR. Overall, CMIP6 models well reproduced the observed enhanced (reduced) ISMR variability from Pacific SSTAs (Indian Ocean SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction), but with varying spatial patterns and magnitudes. While CESM2 and E3SM-2-0 showed the best agreement with observations for the effects of Pacific SSTAs and the Indo-Pacific interaction, respectively, CMIP6 models showed mixed results for the impacts from Indian Ocean SSTAs. Composite analysis of ISMR anomalies during the developing phases of pure and co-occurring El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events revealed that the impacts from Pacific SSTAs were captured reasonably well by E3SM-2-0, CESM2, MIROC6, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR, while E3SM-2-0 also showed the best agreement with observations for the effects from the Indo-Pacific interaction. However, all models showed substantial biases in simulating the Indian Ocean SSTA impacts on ISMR, especially for pure El Niño events. Overall, this study provides new insights into how individual CMIP6 models simulate the isolated impacts from the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, which has important applications for improving ISMR predictions and interpreting ISMR future projections.

monsoon↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of oxygen and stratification and their relationship in the North Pacific Ocean in CMIP6 Earth system models

Abstract. This study examines the linkages between the upper-ocean (0–200 m) oxygen (O2) content and stratification in the North Pacific Ocean using four Earth system models (ESMs), an ocean hindcast simulation, and an ocean reanalysis. The trends and variability in oceanic O2 content are driven by the imbalance between physical supply and biological demand. Physical supply is primarily controlled by ocean ventilation, which is responsible for the transport of O2-rich surface waters to the subsurface. Isopycnic potential vorticity (IPV), a quasi-conservative tracer proportional to density stratification that can be evaluated from temperature and salinity measurements, is used herein as a dynamical proxy for ocean ventilation. The predictability potential of the IPV field is evaluated through its information entropy. The results highlight a strong O2–IPV connection and somewhat higher (as compared to the rest of the basin) predictability potential for IPV across the tropical Pacific, where the El Niño–Southern Oscillation occurs. This pattern of higher predictability and strong anticorrelation between O2 and stratification is robust across multiple models and datasets. In contrast, IPV at mid-latitudes has low predictability potential and its center of action differs from that of O2. In addition, the locations of extreme events or hotspots may or may not differ between the two fields, with a strong model dependency, which persists in future projections. On the one hand, these results suggest that it may be possible to monitor ocean O2 in the tropical Pacific based on a few observational sites co-located with the more abundant IPV measurements; on the other, they lead us to question the robustness of the IPV–O2 relationship in the extratropics. The proposed framework helps to characterize and interpret O2 variability in relation to physical variability and may be especially useful in the analysis of new observation-based data products derived from the BGC-Argo float array in combination with the traditional but far more abundant Argo data.

Novi, Lyuba↗
DOE OSTI2025

Factors Controlling Precipitation Onset and Maintenance: Inferences From Large Eddy Simulations of Two Afternoon Deep Convective Regimes Over Amazon

To investigate the environmental factors controlling the onset and maintenance of afternoon precipitation over tropical rainforests, two contrasting cases are created for large eddy simulations (LES) using GoAmazon observations: one features a single-pulse rain dissipating quickly in earlier afternoon, while the other shows double pulses lasting until evening. For these two specific cases under consideration, LES confirms that early-morning relative humidity dominates afternoon rain patterns. The attributed impacts are distinct: moisture determines the rain onset timing while temperature affects the peak rain intensity. Single-pulse day observes one round of strong precipitation and cold pools, which further suppresses convection. On double-pulse day, the first precipitation peak results from an intermediate development of congestus clouds, whose detrainment leads to a gradual moistening of the lower-to-middle troposphere. This behavior of convection favors a second pulse of stronger precipitation with more convective organization, whose development decouples from surface fluxes and sustains until evening.

Amazon↗
DOE OSTI2026

Disparities in the air quality monitoring stations and PM₂.₅ in Chicago’s air quality landscape

Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) poses significant public and environmental health risks in urban areas. Chicago’s dense industry and traffic create variable air quality, yet monitoring is unevenly distributed, resulting in undersampling of air quality data in some city areas. This study applied a hybrid approach using GIS-based kernel density mapping, interpolation modeling (IDW, Spline, Kriging) of USEPA monitoring data, multi-scale temporal trend analyses (hourly to annual), and ESDA. Accordingly, the density surface showed that monitors are concentrated in the affluent north, northwest, and southwest sides of Chicago (up to ~ 0.07 stations per sq mile), while the south and southeast regions, with predominantly minority communities, have virtually no coverage. Overall, citywide coverage is minimal (~ 4–5 monitors total; ~0.02 per sq mile; ≈1 per 600,000 residents). Temporal analyses showed that the city’s mean annual PM₂.₅ (~ 10.8 µg/m³) exceeds USEPA/WHO standards (9 µg/m³), with summer means (~ 17.1 µg/m³) significantly higher than other seasons. Diurnally, a clear pattern was observed, with PM₂.₅ concentrations peaking overnight (00:00–03:00) and during the morning rush hours, and dipping during midday to late afternoon. Spatial distribution of PM₂.₅ identified hotspots near O’Hare Airport, the downtown Loop area, and south-side neighborhoods, contrasting with lower concentrations on the north side, revealing Chicago’s socioeconomic divides and resulting environmental inequities. The findings underscore the need for expanded monitoring and targeted interventions in under-monitored, high-pollution communities to advance equitable community health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhanced Manganese Oxidation at the Biofilm–Fluid Interface Drives Pore-Scale Patterns in Mineral Precipitation

Microbial oxidation of manganese (Mn) from aqueous Mn(II) to solid-phase Mn(III, IV) minerals catalyzes Mn(II) removal in natural and engineered porous systems. However, little is known about the spatiotemporal evolution of Mn biomineralization in confined spaces that experience simultaneous Mn(II) delivery and Mn oxide precipitation. Here, we combine time-lapse microscopy, image analysis, and mass spectrometry to quantify the extent and rate of Mn biomineralization by Pseudomonas putida GB-1 in an optically transparent two-dimensional porous medium. We found that Mn(II) oxidation initially occurred within biofilms but shifted over time toward the edges of biofilms in contact with pore fluid. Minerals precipitated outside of the initial biofilm footprint likely due to surface-mediated oxidation of Mn(II) by nascent biogenic Mn oxides, reinforcing a gradient in mineral accumulation from the Mn(II) source near the reactor inlet to the outlet. The rate of mineral precipitation outside the biofilm footprint surpassed the rate of mineral accumulation inside biofilms within 6 h and accounted for two-thirds of the total Mn oxide mass in the pore space at the end of the experiment. This work advances a mechanistic understanding of coupled biotic and abiotic Mn oxidation in porous environments while providing a novel platform to quantify microbe-mineral-fluid interactions.

Biofilms↗
DOE OSTI2024

A weather pattern responsible for increasing wildfires in the western United States

Abstract The western United States (U.S.) has been experiencing more severe wildfires, in part due to climate change, but the underlying synoptic patterns and their modulation in driving fire weather is unclear. Here we investigated the relationship between weather regimes (WRs) and fire weather indices, specifically vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index. By identifying five singular WRs using k-means clustering, we found that a particular regime (WR-2), one characterized by a distinct tripolar wave train pattern over the continental U.S., has exhibited an increased frequency since 1980. The ascribed WR-2 regime was found to be mainly responsible for rising trends in the fire weather indices, especially VPD. Further, the average fire indices of the WR-2 regime played a more important role than the frequency in shaping the rising trends in the fire weather indices. The increased frequency of the WR-2 WR was mainly attributed to anthropogenic forcing and, the year-to-year variation of the frequency was associated with sea surface temperature anomalies over the subtropical eastern Pacific. Human-induced climate change might have furthered the exacerbation of wildfire danger in the western U.S. by modulating the behaviors of WRs and fire weather indices.

Zhang, Wei (ORCID:0000000221698749)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of the USGS velocity model for the San Francisco Bay Area

In this study, we evaluated the performance of the United States Geological Survey velocity model developed for the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA), version 21.1. The evaluation was performed through high-resolution three-dimensional physics-based ground motion simulations of seven small-magnitude earthquakes (ranging from magnitude 3.8 to 4.4) that occurred on the eastern side of the San Francisco Bay. The simulations were performed in the frequency range from 0 to 5 Hz with a minimum shear-wave velocity of 250 m/s, which allowed the capture of wave propagation effects of the near-surface soft materials that characterize local basins. Based on the direct comparison of Fourier amplitude spectra between recorded and simulated ground motions for more than 250 stations, we found that the velocity model generally performs well in the frequency range of 0.2–5 Hz. The median value of the Fourier amplitude residuals was found to be near zero for all seven earthquakes. The slight over-prediction of 0.2 log-natural units at frequencies above 3 Hz in our simulations was attributed to the potentially inaccurate representation of the source radiation pattern by a double-couple point source model, and simple representation of shallow small-scale underground structural complexity in the velocity model. Maps of spectral amplitude differences between the simulated and recorded data were used to identify areas responsible for systematic ground motion over-predictions or under-predictions. For example, while some sub-domains over soft sediments show over-prediction patterns, the block east of the Hayward fault is prone to exhibit patterns of under-prediction. These maps can be used to guide future refinements of the SFBA velocity model. Since our simulation methodology allows for the decoupling of the source and wave propagation effects, the ground motion data generated by our simulations can also be used to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to the velocity model, in empirically based ground motion estimates for the SFBA.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗