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At least 307 records · Page 17

The Chandra X-Ray Observatory Overview

The Chandra X-Ray Observatory was launched early in the morning of July 23, 1999 by the Space Shuttle Columbia. The Shuttle launch was only the first step in placing NASA's latest great observatory into orbit. After release from the cargo bay, the Inertial Upper Stage performed two firings and separated from the observatory as planned. Finally, after five firings of Chandra's own Integral Propulsion System - the last of which took place 15 days after the initial launch - the observatory was placed in its highly elliptical orbit of 140,000 km apogee and 10,000 km perigee. After Observatory activation, the first x-rays focused by the telescope were observed on August 12, 1999. Beginning with this initial observation one could conclude that the telescope had survived the launch environment and was operating as expected. The month following the opening of the sunshade door was spent adjusting the focus for each set of instrument configurations, determining the optical axis, calibrating the star camera, establishing the relative response functions, determining the energy scale(s), and performing a series of "publicity" images. Each observation proved to be far more revealing than was expected. Preliminary results will be presented and the status of the instrumentation on the observatory will be discussed.

Weisskopf, Martin C.↗

Topside Ionosphere Parameters Observed by POLAR and DMSP at high latitudes

Several near-simultaneous Southern polar passes for both POLAR (at perigee) and DMSP spacecraft are examined. The core ion measurements from the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) on POLAR spacecraft near 5000 km altitude and the ionospheric ion and electron parameters measured by both DMSP 12 and DMSP 13 at 840 kin altitude during these near-simultaneous passes provide unique quasi-global snapshots of the ionospheric flows. We consider such parameters as the O (+) and H (+) densities, temperatures and parallel flows from POLAR/TIDE and the O (+) ion parameters and electron temperature from the DMSP observations. For some passes, auroral images from the POLAR Ultraviolet Imager (UVI) are used to complement the ion/electron parameter observations. We will also examine the interplanetary magnetic field context of these quasi-global topside ionospheric measurements.

Zeng, Wen↗

Using Model-Based Reasoning for Autonomous Instrument Operation

Multiprobe missions are an important part of NASA's future: Cluster, Magnetospheric Multi Scale, Global Electrodynamics and Magnetospheric Constellation are representatives from the Sun-Earth Connections Theme. To make such missions robust, reliable, and affordable, ideally the many spacecraft of a constellation must be at least as easy to operate as one spacecraft is today. To support this need for scalability, science instrumentation must become increasingly easy to operate, even as this same instrumentation becomes more capable and advanced. Communication and control resources will be at a premium for future instruments. Many missions will be out of contact with ground operators for extended periods either to reduce operations cost or because of orbits that limit communication to weekly perigee transits. Autonomous capability is necessary if such missions are to effectively achieve their operational objectives. An autonomous system is one that acts given its situation in a mission appropriate manner without external direction to achieve mission goals. To achieve this capability autonomy must be built into the system through judicious design or through a built-in intelligence that recognizes system state and manages system response. To recognize desired or undesired system states, the system must have an implicit or explicit understanding of its expected states given its history and self observations. The systems we are concerned with, science instruments, can have stringent requirements for system state knowledge in addition to requirements driven by health and safety concerns. Without accurate knowledge of the system state, the usefulness of the science instrument may be severely limited. At the same time, health and safety concerns often lead to overly conservative instrument operations further reducing the effectiveness of the instrument. These requirements, coupled with overall mission requirements including lack of communication opportunities and tolerance of environmental hazards, frame the problem of constructing autonomous science instruments. we are developing a model of the Low Energy Neutral Atom instrument (LENA) that is currently flying on board the Imager for Magnetosphere-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) spacecraft. LENA is a particle detector that uses high voltage electrostatic optics and time-of-flight mass spectrometry to image neutral atom emissions from the denser regions of the Earth's magnetosphere. As with most spacecraft borne science instruments, phenomena in addition to neutral atoms are detected by LENA. Solar radiation and energetic particles from Earth's radiation belts are of particular concern because they may help generate currents that may compromise LENA's long term performance. An explicit model of the instrument response has been constructed and is currently in use on board IMAGE to dynamically adapt LENA to the presence or absence of energetic background radiations. The components of LENA are common in space science instrumentation, and lessons learned by modelling this system may be applied to other instruments. This work demonstrates that a model-based approach can be used to enhance science instrument effectiveness. Our future work involves the extension of these methods to cover more aspects of LENA operation and the generalization to other space science instrumentation.

Johnson, Mike↗

Laser Solutions for Reducing the Environmental Risks Associated with Orbital Debris and Near Earth Objects

Increasing activity in space is gradually increasing the amount of orbital debris in low earth orbit. As the debris increases, the environmental risk (hypervelocity collisions) associated with spaceflight also increases. Debris larger than 10 cm can typically be detected and tracked sufficiently to allow risk avoidance to be achieved by maneuvering to safe distances. Risk reduction for objects smaller than I cm may be accomplished through shielding. However, intermediate sized debris remains a problem. A convenient risk reduction solution has been identified using modem laser technology. In this approach, a relatively low energy laser facility operating near e equator may significantly reduce the amount of intermediate sized debris (1 - 10 cm) in a few years of operation. A sufficiently intense laser pulse arriving at a debris objects surface will ablate a micro-thin layer of material. As this hot gas rapidly expands away from the object, a small change in momentum is imparted. The momentum change for one pulse is insignificant. However, since the laser can provide 10-1000 pulses per second over several minutes, the cumulative effect is substantive. The object's perigee may be lowered in this manner into atmosphere where it will be vaporized. This same technique may be employed on a larger scale for risk reduction in asteroids, meteoroids, and comets colliding with the Earth at hypervelocities.

Campbell, Jonathan W.↗

A Multispacecraft/Instrument Case Study of the Relationship Between the Solar Wind and Ionospheric Plasma Outflow

The study of the relationship between the solar wind and ionospheric plasma outflows is fundamental to understanding the solar- terrestrial relationship. A multi-spacecraft/instrument case study has been carried out to address this relationship. On 11-26-00 the Polar spacecraft made a pass through the southern cleft region near perigee where the Thermal Ion Dynamics Experiment (TIDE) instrument observed a classic Cleft Ion Fountain/upwelling ion signature. These observations followed several pressure pulses from the solar wind as evidenced by observations from the Magnetic Field Instrument (MFI) on the WIND spacecraft. Several interesting electric field features were observed by the Electric Field Instrument (EFI) as Polar appeared to pass through a narrow region of strong currents into a region with significant oscillations at a large range of frequencies. In addition, coincident with the TIDE observations of ion outflow, the low-energy edge of the characteristic V-shape of cusp ion injections was also observed. During this same time frame the Cluster spacecrafts crossed the magnetopause in the dusk sector and observed the electric field signatures associated with this region on all three satellites. This event is addressed in detail to further detail cleft ion fountain source characteristics, to add additional data regarding the hypothesis that solar wind pressure pulses are a trigger for cleft outflow, and to investigate possible interactions among waves, ionospheric plasma, and cusp injected plasma.

Craven, Paul D.↗

Polar Plasma Wave Observations in the Auroral Region and Polar Cap

Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR), sometimes associated with auroral myriametric radiation (AMR), has been observed by the plasma wave instrument on board Polar on almost every northern hemisphere pass. High spectral resolution plots of the AKR obtained by the wide-band receiver of the plasma wave instrument on board the spacecraft often show discrete, negative-slope striations each extending over a period of several seconds. A preliminary survey of over 4000 spectrograms (each for 48 seconds of data) indicates that the striations are seen in the northern hemisphere near apogee about 5% of the time. The frequency range is 40 kHz less than f less than 100 kHz, but a few observations of signatures have been made at higher frequency (f less than 225 khz. The frequency drift rates R, are similar ranging from -9.0 kHz/sec less than R less than -1.0 kHz/sec. No data is currently available for perigee (southern hemisphere) passes. The paucity of positive-slope features may be due to the location of the satellite at altitudes well above the AKR source region. Past studies have suggested these features are due to AKR wave growth stimulated by the propagation of electromagnetic ion cyclotron waves travelling up (-R) or down (+R) the field line, through the source region. High-resolution waveform data from both Polar and FAST show the presence of solitary waves in the auroral region which may also be a source of these striations. AMR is seen as diffuse emission associated with, but at lower frequency than the lower AKR. Direction finding of these emissions is not conclusive, but for one case, they have a source region distinct from the magnetic field line containing the AKR source, but possibly associated with the auroral cavity density gradient.

Menietti, J. D.↗

Near-simultaneous Polar and DMSP Measurements of Topside Ionospheric Field-Aligned Flows at High Latitudes

Near-simultaneous observations of topside O(+) parallel flows are presented for four periods of measurement by the Polar and DMSP satellites during April 1996. The Polar measurements were from southern perigee measurements near 5000 km altitude, while the DMSP measurements were from 840 km altitude. In general, the velocities were upward at expected cleft and auroral latitudes, typically about 2-10 km per second at 5000 km altitude, and 0-2 km per second at 840 km altitude. At the highest, polar cap latitudes, downward velocities were more frequent at both altitudes, but especially at the lower 840 km altitude. The downward velocities were typically a few hundred meters per second at 840 km altitude, and 0-1 km per second at 5000 km altitude. In some instances, downward velocities were observed at 840 km altitude while upward O(+) flows were observed at 5000 km altitude, possibly on the same flux tube. The O(+) densities were characteristically 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 4) O(+) at 5000 km altitude and 10(exp 3) - 10(exp 4) O(+) cm (exp -3) at 840 km altitude, while the O(+) fluxes were characteristically 10(exp 5) - 10(exp 7) O(+) cm(exp -2) per second at 5000 km altitude and characteristically 10(exp 7) - 10(exp 9) O(+) cm(exp -2) per second at 840 km altitude. We have also examined the dual-altitude parameter measurements for a polar cap field line, the Polar and DMSP measurements approximately 30 min apart, and compared them with results from a transport simulation. The simulated high-altitude velocity altitude profiles for the period during and after the initiation of the auroral processes generally bracketed the observations, but the observed downward velocities (500 - 600 m per second) at 840 km altitude were much larger in magnitude than those observed at both altitudes.

Zeng, W.↗

Microwave Anisotrophy Probe Launch and Early Operations

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP), a follow-on to the Differential Microwave Radiometer (DMR) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE), was launched from the Kennedy Space Center at 19:46:46 UTC on June 30, 2001. The powered flight and separation from the Delta II appeared to go as designed, with the launch placing MAP well within sigma launch dispersion and with less than 7 Nms of tip-off momentum. Because of this relatively low momentum, MAP was able to acquire the sun within only 15 minutes with a battery state of charge of 94%. After MAP's successful launch, a six week period of in-orbit checkout and orbit maneuvers followed. The dual purpose of the in-orbit checkout period was to validate the correct performance of all of MAP's systems and, from the attitude control system (ACS) point of view, to calibrate the performance of the spacecraft ACS sensors and actuators to maximize system performance. In addition to the checkout activities performed by the MAP team, the other critical activity taking place during the first six weeks after launch were a series of orbit maneuvers necessary to get the spacecraft from its launch orbit out to its desired orbit about L2, the second Earth-Sun Lagrange point. As MAP continues its standard operations, its ACS design is meeting all of its requirements to successfully complete the mission. This paper will describe the launch and early operations summarized above in greater detail, and show the performance of the attitude control and attitude determination system versus its requirements. Additionally, some of the unexpected events that occurred during this period will be discussed, including two events which dropped the spacecraft into its Safehold Mode and the presence of an "anomalous force" observed during each of the perigee orbit maneuvers that had the potential to cause these critical maneuvers to be prematurely aborted.

ODonnell, James R., Jr.↗

Image Dis-Integration for Improved Plasmasphere Visualization

Traditionally, study of the plasmasphere has involved terrestrial observation of local characteristics. Global modeling of the plasmasphere in such an observation regime made use of an ensemble of (sparse) local measurements. Recently, sensors aboard the IMAGE (Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration) satellite (in particular, the EUV (Extreme Ultra Violet) Imager) have created the potential for truly global study of the plasmasphere. IMAGE was launched in spring of 2000 in an orbit with apogee altitude 7.2 R E (Earth radii) and perigee altitude 1000 km. IMAGE's EUV sensor allows an external view of the distribution of cold plasma in the plasmasphere to be acquired. EUV is designed to image light emission at 30.4 nanometers, which is the emission wavelength of the He + ion in the presence of solar radiation. He + makes up approximately 15-20% of the plasma in the plasmasphere, thus imaging of He + enables determination of plasma distribution. The EUV instrument provides a 90° by 84° field of view which is imaged as an equally spaced 150x140 pixel array on a spherical imaging surface. The EUV produces an image approximately every 10 minutes when the sensor is operating. Since EUV images contain line-of-sight integrations of plasma distributions, they do not directly express equatorial plane density (which would enable comparison of observed plasma distributions with predictions from models). Furthermore, the plasma density at any point in three-space is not known. The goal of our work was development of a technique that can enable plasma density to be determined throughout three-space. Our approach to creation of a three-space representation of the plasma distribution involves disintegrating the EUV lines of sight to form a volumetric map of plasma densities.

Timothy S. Newman↗

Algorithms for Autonomous GPS Orbit Determination and Formation Flying: Investigation of Initialization Approaches and Orbit Determination for HEO

This report summarizes the efforts to date in processing GPS measurements in High Earth Orbit (HEO) applications by the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research (CCAR). Two specific projects were conducted; initialization of the orbit propagation software, GEODE, using nominal orbital elements for the IMEX orbit, and processing of actual and simulated GPS data from the AMSAT satellite using a Doppler-only batch filter. CCAR has investigated a number of approaches for initialization of the GEODE orbit estimator with little a priori information. This document describes a batch solution approach that uses pseudorange or Doppler measurements collected over an orbital arc to compute an epoch state estimate. The algorithm is based on limited orbital element knowledge from which a coarse estimate of satellite position and velocity can be determined and used to initialize GEODE. This algorithm assumes knowledge of nominal orbital elements, (a, e, i, omega, omega) and uses a search on time of perigee passage (tau(sub p)) to estimate the host satellite position within the orbit and the approximate receiver clock bias. Results of the method are shown for a simulation including large orbital uncertainties and measurement errors. In addition, CCAR has attempted to process GPS data from the AMSAT satellite to obtain an initial estimation of the orbit. Limited GPS data have been received to date, with few satellites tracked and no computed point solutions. Unknown variables in the received data have made computations of a precise orbit using the recovered pseudorange difficult. This document describes the Doppler-only batch approach used to compute the AMSAT orbit. Both actual flight data from AMSAT, and simulated data generated using the Satellite Tool Kit and Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Simulator, were processed. Results for each case and conclusion are presented.

Axelrad, Penina↗

The Maneuver Planning Process for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) Mission

The Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) mission utilized a strategy combining highly eccentric phasing loops with a lunar gravity assist to provide a zero-cost insertion into a Lissajous orbit about the Sun-Earth/Moon L2 point. Maneuvers were executed at the phasing loop perigees to correct for launch vehicle errors and to target the lunar gravity assist so that a suitable orbit at L2 was achieved. This paper will discuss the maneuver planning process for designing, verifying, and executing MAP's maneuvers. This paper will also describe how commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) tools were used to execute these tasks and produce a command sequence ready for upload to the spacecraft. These COTS tools included Satellite Tool Kit, MATLAB, and Matrix-X.

Mesarch, Michael A.↗

UAH Analysis of TIDE/PSI Data for ISTP Solar Maximum Extended Mission

During the course of this research, several investigations have been carried out at both high and low altitudes. The low altitude studies are those associated with perigee observations of ion field-aligned flows measured by POLAR/TIDE near 5000 km altitude. High altitude studies employed ion observations near apogee (above 6 R(sub E) geocentric). In both cases the observations occur at high latitudes, in or near the polar regions: the southern polar region for the low altitude studies and the northern polar region for the high altitude studies. A study of the relationship between field-aligned flow velocities, fluxes, and densities to convection speeds was published in the Journal of Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics . Here we have demonstrated an anti-correlation between the 0+ densities and the convection speeds, and a correlation between the parallel upward velocities and the convection speeds, and have discussed these results as being compatible with the Cleft Ion Fountain concept for supplying O(sup +) ions to the polar cap magnetosphere. Another topic investigated was the relationship between TIDE-observed upward and downward parallel O(sup +) bulk velocities near 5000 km altitude over the southern polar regions, and near-simultaneous auroral observations by the Ultra-Violet Imager. We have prepared several overlaid plots of such auroral images across an MLT-ILAT dial plot of the polar regions with upward and downward velocities, as well as other parameters such as ion densities and fluxes. The overlaid plots show quite nicely how upward velocities and crossovers between upward and downward velocities occur in association with auroral forms, while downward flows are associated with dark regions of the polar cap.

Comfort, Richard H.↗

Orbit Determination Support for the Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP)

NASA's Microwave Anisotropy Probe (MAP) was launched from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station Complex 17 aboard a Delta II 7425-10 expendable launch vehicle on June 30, 2001. The spacecraft received a nominal direct insertion by the Delta expendable launch vehicle into a 185-km circular orbit with a 28.7deg inclination. MAP was then maneuvered into a sequence of phasing loops designed to set up a lunar swingby (gravity-assisted acceleration) of the spacecraft onto a transfer trajectory to a lissajous orbit about the Earth-Sun L2 Lagrange point, about 1.5 million km from Earth. Because of its complex orbital characteristics, the mission provided a unique challenge for orbit determination (OD) support in many orbital regimes. This paper summarizes the premission trajectory covariance error analysis, as well as actual OD results. The use and impact of the various tracking stations, systems, and measurements will be also discussed. Important lessons learned from the MAP OD support team will be presented. There will be a discussion of the challenges presented to OD support including the effects of delta-Vs at apogee as well as perigee, and the impact of the spacecraft attitude mode on the OD accuracy and covariance analysis.

Bauer, Frank↗

GPS-Based Navigation And Orbit Determination for the AMSAT AO-40 Satellite

The AMSAT OSCAR-40 (AO-40) spacecraft occupies a highly elliptical orbit (HEO) to support amateur radio experiments. An interesting aspect of the mission is the attempted use of GPS for navigation and attitude determination in HEO. Previous experiences with GPS tracking in such orbits have demonstrated the ability to acquire GPS signals, but very little data were produced for navigation and orbit determination studies. The AO-40 spacecraft, flying two Trimble Advanced Navigation Sensor (TANS) Vector GPS receivers for signal reception at apogee and at perigee, is the first to demonstrate autonomous tracking of GPS signals from within a HEO with no interaction from ground controllers. Moreover, over 11 weeks of total operations as of June 2002, the receiver has returned a continuous stream of code phase, Doppler, and carrier phase measurements useful for studying GPS signal characteristics and performing post-processed orbit determination studies in HEO. This paper presents the initial efforts to generate AO-40 navigation solutions from pseudorange data reconstructed from the TANS Vector code phase, as well as to generate a precise orbit solution for the AO-40 spacecraft using a batch filter.

Davis, George↗

Controlling Variable Emittance (MEMS) Coatings for Space Applications

Small spacecraft, including micro and nanosats, as they are envisioned for future missions, will require an alternative means to achieve thermal control due to their small power and mass budgets. One of the proposed alternatives is Variable Emittance (Vari-E) Coatings for spacecraft radiators. Space Technology-5 (ST-5) is a technology demonstration mission through NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) that will utilize Vari-E Coatings. This mission involves a constellation of three (3) satellites in a highly elliptical orbit with a perigee altitude of approximately 200 kilometers and an apogee of approximately 38,000 kilometers. Such an environment will expose the spacecraft to a wide swing in the thermal and radiation environment of the earth's atmosphere. There are three (3) different technologies associated with this mission. The three technologies are electrophoretic, electrochromic, and Micro ElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS). The ultimate goal is to make use of Van-E coatings, in order to achieve various levels of thermal control. The focus of this paper is to highlight the Vari-E Coating MEMS instrument, with an emphasis on the Electronic Control Unit responsible for operating the MEMS device. The Test & Evaluation approach, along with the results, is specific for application on ST-5, yet the information provides a guideline for future experiments and/or thermal applications on the exterior structure of a spacecraft.

Farrar, D.↗

An Analysis of the Corridor and Guidance Requirements for Supercircular Entry into Planetary Atmospheres

An analysis is presented of supercircular entry into a planet's atmosphere giving particular attention to the corridor through which spacecraft must be guided in order to accomplish various maneuvers. A dimensionless parameter based on conditions at the conic perigee altitude is introduced for characterizing supercircular entries and conveniently pre-scribing corridor widths associated with elliptic, parabolic, or hyperbolic approach trajectories. The analysis applies to vehicles of arbitrary weight, shape, and size. Illustrative calculations are made for Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, and Titan. For nonlifting vehicles having fixed aerodynamic coefficients, curves are presented of dimensionless parameters from which can be calculated the maximum deceleration, maximum rate of laminar convective heating, and total laminar heat absorbed during single-pass entry at velocities up to twice circular velocity. For lifting vehicles, curves are presented of the maximum deceleration and overshoot boundary of an entry corridor; equations are presented for estimating laminar aerodynamic heating from the maximum deceleration. It is shown that the corridor width is independent of vehicle weight, dimensions, and drag coefficient, provided these are the same at the overshoot boundary as at undershoot. The corridors of certain planets can be broadened markedly by the application of aerodynamic lift; for example, the 10-earth-g corridor width for single- pass, nonlifting, parabolic entry is increased from 0 miles for Jupiter, 7 for Earth, and 8 for Venus, to 52, 51, and 52 miles, respectively, by employing a lift-drag ratio of 1. The use of aerodynamic lift does not increase appreciably the corridors of Mars and Titan. All corridor widths decrease rapidly as the entry velocity is increased. Terminal guidance requirements on accuracy of velocity and flight path angle for successfully entering various corridors are compared with analogous requirements for putting a satellite into orbit, for hitting the moon from the earth, and for achieving ICBM accuracy. Consideration is given to the terminal guidance problem involved in using a planet's atmosphere-rather than rocket fuel-to effect orbital transfers from heliocentric to planetocentric motion, thereby converting a hyperbolic approach trajectory to an elliptic orbit about the target planet. This fuel saving maneuver appears technologically feasible for certain planetary voyages, and implies the possibility of achieving a large reduction in required Earth lift-off weight of chemical propulsion systems.

Chapman, Dean R.↗

Navigator GPS Receiver for Fast Acquisition and Weak Signal Space Applications

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) is developing a new space-borne GPS receiver that can operate effectively in the full range of Earth orbiting missions from Low Earth Orbit (LEO) to geostationary and beyond. Navigator is designed to be a fully space flight qualified GPS receiver optimized for fast signal acquisition and weak signal tracking. The fast acquisition capabilities provide exceptional time to first fix performance (TIFF) with no a priori receiver state or GPS almanac information, even in the presence of high Doppler shifts present in LEO (or near perigee in highly eccentric orbits). The fast acquisition capability also makes it feasible to implement extended correlation intervals and therefore significantly reduce Navigator s acquisition threshold. This greatly improves GPS observability when the receiver is above the GPS constellation (and satellites must be tracked from the opposite side of the Earth) by providing at least 10 dB of increased acquisition sensitivity. Fast acquisition and weak signal tracking algorithms have been implemented and validated on a hardware development board. A fully functional version of the receiver, employing most of the flight parts, with integrated navigation software is expected by mid 2005. An ultimate goal of this project is to license the Navigator design to an industry partner who will then market the receiver as a commercial product.

Winternitz, Luke↗

The Precession Index and a Nonlinear Energy Balance Climate Model

A simple nonlinear energy balance climate model yields a precession index-like term in the temperature. Despite its importance in the geologic record, the precession index e sin (Omega)S, where e is the Earth's orbital eccentricity and (Omega)S is the Sun's perigee in the geocentric frame, is not present in the insolation at the top of the atmosphere. Hence there is no one-for-one mapping of 23,000 and 19,000 year periodicities from the insolation to the paleoclimate record; a nonlinear climate model is needed to produce these long periods. A nonlinear energy balance climate model with radiative terms of form T n, where T is surface temperature and n less than 1, does produce e sin (omega)S terms in temperature; the e sin (omega)S terms are called Seversmith psychroterms. Without feedback mechanisms, the model achieves extreme values of 0.64 K at the maximum orbital eccentricity of 0.06, cooling one hemisphere while simultaneously warming the other; the hemisphere over which perihelion occurs is the cooler. In other words, the nonlinear energy balance model produces long-term cooling in the northern hemisphere when the Sun's perihelion is near northern summer solstice and long-term warming in the northern hemisphere when the aphelion is near northern summer solstice. (This behavior is similar to the inertialess gray body which radiates like T 4, but the amplitude is much lower for the energy balance model because of its thermal inertia.) This seemingly paradoxical behavior works against the standard Milankovitch model, which requires cool northern summers (Sun far from Earth in northern summer) to build up northern ice sheets, so that if the standard model is correct it must be more efficient than previously thought. Alternatively, the new mechanism could possibly be dominant and indicate southern hemisphere control of the northern ice sheets, wherein the southern oceans undergo a long-term cooling when the Sun is far from the Earth during northern summer. The cold water eventually flows north, cooling the northern hemisphere. This might explain why the northern oceans lag the southern ones when it comes to orbital forcing.

Rubincam, David↗