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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Win-Win Regulatory Strategies in Idaho - 19241

During the course of any waste management or environmental remediation project, the earliest goals must include the creation and maintenance of mutual trust, respect, and cooperation with regulatory agencies and stakeholders. The heavy equipment and treatment systems remain idled until bounding characterization and risk analysis is complete, technical and functional requirements are identified, required controls and limits are established, and the proper permits and approvals are issued. Once a project receives approval to start up or break ground, the regulatory process has only just begun. Process modifications and improvements, as well as unexpected events, will continue to necessitate further reviews, discussions, and approvals. Building healthy professional relationships with the regulatory community and consistently meeting or exceeding their expectations, while operating within controls, is a cornerstone to jointly finding cost-effective solutions to complex issues, and streamlining the path to success. Navigating the optimal routes to compliance through the myriad regulatory waypoints is essential to avoiding schedule delays, staying within budget, and keeping clients continuously satisfied and delighted. Two complex case studies from the Idaho Cleanup Project Core will examine regulatory communication and integration strategies that have proven effective to date in obtaining timely approvals and maintaining compliance: (1) conducting Decontamination and Decommissioning as non-time critical removal actions (NTCRA) under CERCLA, and (2) preparing the integrated documentation necessary to obtain DOE, EPA, DEQ, and NRC approvals to close calcine storage units at the Idaho Nuclear Technology and Engineering Center (INTEC). (author)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Pseudo-dynamic Aspen Plus{sup R} Model of the Defense Waste Processing Facility - 18475

The Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) at the Savannah River Site converts legacy high-level waste from the Cold War into borosilicate glass for permanent disposal in a geological repository. The waste sludge is chemically adjusted by the addition of acid, mixed with frit, and concentrated in the DWPF Chemical Process Cell (CPC) to ensure that the final glass has the desired properties. The resulting mixture is fed into the melter where the waste is melted and poured into stainless steel storage canisters. We present an Aspen Plus{sup R} model of the DWPF CPC, which is being developed to aid chemical processing decisions pertaining to the current flowsheet and to aid decisions regarding optimizing future processing. Given a waste feed composition with acid and frit additions, the model will predict the sludge and off-gas compositions throughout the processing, as well as the final melter feed composition. This allows different processing scenarios to be investigated easily, reducing the reliance on experimental testing, and hence saving time and money. The model has multiple potential applications, including calculating the acid and frit additions required to give acceptable glass properties, off-gas permitting, tracking mercury steam-stripped from the waste in the off-gas system, tracking flammable gases in the offgas system, investigating the effect of reducing air purges in the condensers, and general process optimization. The waste is processed in the CPC in batches, requiring dynamic simulation to track the time-dependent operations. Accurate modeling of the processing also requires calculations of phase and electrolyte chemical equilibria and parallel rate-dependent reactions. Due to existing technical limitations with dynamic simulation of the complex chemical system, we have adopted a pseudo-dynamic approach in which time intervals are treated as consecutive steady-state operations in Aspen Plus{sup R}. Thus, the model consists of ∼100 replicas of the processing vessel and its off-gas system, with the sludge output by one replica (representing one time interval) becoming the feed to the next (representing the next time interval). By examining the results from these replicas in sequence, one can see the time evolution of the model. This general approach can be used wherever simultaneous calculation of phase and electrolyte chemical equilibria in a dynamically evolving system is needed. In addition to describing the general structure and chemistry of the model, we present results from tests of the model against experimental data. These data are from laboratory-scale process simulations of the CPC with a nonradioactive waste sludge simulant. These tests include the model's predictions of the offgas composition, the sludge pH, and the final sludge composition. We will also discuss planned future developments of the model. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ready for Renewables: Grid Planning and Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ) in the Philippines

The Department of Energy of the Philippines launched the competitive renewable energy zones (CREZ) process to help achieve the country's goals of scaling up renewable energy generation on the power system and to ensure sustainable, secure, reliable, accessible, and affordable energy. The CREZ process identifies the most economic renewable energy resource areas so transmission planning and expansion can accelerate their development. By proactively focusing transmission expansion to these resource areas, renewable energy generation development obstacles such as transmission access, energy curtailment, land permitting (such as protected or high-slope areas), and regulatory barriers are easier to overcome thus, reducing risk for private sector renewable energy investment. This report is will cover the outputs of the CREZ process, the development of the outputs through stakeholder-driven coordination, and how this process will help the Philippines achieve their renewable energy goals.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Numerical Analysis of Detonability Assessment in a Natural Gas-Air Fueled Rotating Detonation Engine

Rotating Detonation Engines (RDE) offer an alternative combustion strategy to replace conventional constant pressure combustion with a process that could produce a pressure gain without the use of a mechanical compressor. Recent numerical and experimental publications that consider air as the oxidizer have primarily focused on the ability of these annular combustors to sustain a stable continuous detonation wave when fueled by hydrogen. However, for this to be a viable consideration for the land-based power generation it is necessary to explore the ability to detonate natural gas and air within the confines of the annular geometry of an RDE. Previous studies on confined detonations have expressed the importance of permitting detonation cells to fully form within the combustor in order to achieve stability. This poses a challenge for natural gas–air fueled processes as their detonation cell size can be quite large even at moderate pressures. Despite the practical importance, only a few studies are available on natural gas detonations for air-breathing RDE applications. Moreover, the extreme thermodynamic condition (high temperature inside the combustor) allows limited accessibility inside the combustor for detailed experimental instrumentations, providing mostly single-point data. Recent experimental studies at the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) have reported detonation failure at higher methane concentration in an air-breathing RDE fueled by natural gas-hydrogen fuel blends. This encourages to perform a detailed numerical investigation on the wave characteristics of detonation in a natural gas-air fueled RDE to understand the various aspects of instability associated with the natural gas-air detonation.This study is a numerical consideration of a methane-air fueled RDE with varying operating conditions to ascertain the ability to achieve a stable, continuous detonation wave. The simulations have been performed in a 2D unwrapped RDE geometry using the open-source CFD library “OpenFOAM” employing an unsteady pressure-based compressible reactive flow solver with a <em>k</em>–<em>ε</em> turbulence model in a structured rectangular grid system. Both reduced and detailed chemical kinetic models have been used to assess the effect of the chemistry on the detonation wave characteristics and the underlying flow features. A systematic grid sensitivity study has been conducted with various grid sizes to quantify the weakly stable overdriven detonation on a coarse mesh and oscillating features at fine mesh resolutions.The main focus of the current study is to investigate the effects of operating injection pressure on detonation wave characteristics of an air-breathing Rotating Detonation Engine (RDE) fueled with natural gas-hydrogen fuel blends. Wave speeds, peak pressures and temperatures, and dominant frequencies have been computed from the time histories. The flow structures were then visualized using 2D contours of temperature and species concentration.

Saha, Pankaj↗
DOE OSTI2020

Regulatory Decision-Making Process Using 'Weight of Evidence: An Evidence Integration Approach' by the State of Washington at the Hanford Site - 20163

Performance Assessment and Environmental Impact Statement Modeling, Human and Ecological Risk Assessments are the tools used by the Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology) to make regulatory decisions for permitting and cleanup. These efforts all inherently have large amounts of uncertainty no matter how many alternative approaches are attempted. Professional feedback from tribal governments, stakeholders, federal and state regulators, the public and independent peer review groups are taken into account in this process of informed decision making. The process also includes full evaluation of the comments and the associated reviews made by the various peer review groups such as the Low -Level Waste Disposal Facility Federal Review Group (DOE order 435.1) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). The evolution of technology has produced quicker and more efficient fate and transport modeling tools with related quantification of uncertainties and their significance. Groundwater and vadose zone models have been expanded across the entire Hanford site. Many of the technical approaches identified in the Washington State Regulations are updated using current knowledge to better understand the complexities of the Hanford Site using the latest state of the art tools for risk assessment and modeling. More emphasis and time are directed on defining uncertainty and then managing the uncertainty. One added tool is to run sensitivity cases based on informed decision making. The weight of evidence approach considers all relevant information in an integrative assessment that takes into account the kinds of evidence available, the quality and quantity, the uncertainty and error associated with each type, and how they fit together. Evidence of integration involves looking at systematic reviews and evaluating their strengths and weaknesses. In conclusion, Ecology, Washington State's lead regulatory agency at the Hanford site, has had to modify its site closure approach compared to the rest of the state. A more holistic approach dealing with the Hanford site as an integrated system has evolved leading to a defensible informed approach for regulatory closure decisions. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the product phases and the reaction kinetics of carbothermic reduction of UO 2 +C at relatively low temperatures

The synthesis of UC using carbothermic reduction of UO 2 and C mixtures has been well studied at high temperatures. However, the product phase behavior of carbothermic reduction at low temperatures (≤1773 K) is not well studied. Such a study is important as low temperatures permit single phase UC synthesis without forming secondary higher carbides, and it further supports the knowledge base of the process that needs to be used for transuranic elements such as plutonium that have high vapor pressures at elevated temperatures. Therefore, a low temperature carbothermic reduction of two different C/UO 2 molar ratios under inert and reducing environments have been studied here. Two different sample holding crucibles, alumina (Al 2 O 3 ) and graphite, were also used here to differentiate the hypostoichiometric (UC 1-a ) and oxygen dissolved (UC 1-x O x ) uranium monocarbide phases adding more details on the two systems. Also, the reaction kinetics involved in the formation of UC via the carbothermic reduction of UO 2 +C using product phases instead of evolved gases such as carbon monoxide is reported here. Under inert atmospheres but with significant oxygen partial pressures, the low temperature carbothermic reduction of UO 2 +C produced up to 90 wt.% UC 1-x O x type oxycarbides as was confirmed by Xray powder diffraction. Reducing Ar-4%H 2 environments at these temperatures were not successful in synthesizing UC as it reduces the amount of C required for the carbothermic reduction, leaving UC phase at a non-equilibrium state. Inert atmospheres with low or negligible oxygen partial pressures on the other hand produced near stoichiometric UC at high phase purity, especially at 1673 – 1773 K temperature range. An activation energy of 377±75 kJmol -1 was also calculated using product phase concentrations of the carbothermic reduction of UO 2 +C under these inert Ar (g) atmospheres.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hexanary blends: a strategy towards thermally stable organic photovoltaics

Non-fullerene based organic solar cells display a high initial power conversion efficiency but continue to suffer from poor thermal stability, especially in case of devices with thick active layers. Mixing of five structurally similar acceptors with similar electron affinities, and blending with a donor polymer is explored, yielding devices with a power conversion efficiency of up to 17.6%. The hexanary device performance is unaffected by thermal annealing of the bulk-heterojunction active layer for at least 23 days at 130 °C in the dark and an inert atmosphere. Moreover, hexanary blends offer a high degree of thermal stability for an active layer thickness of up to 390 nm, which is advantageous for high-throughput processing of organic solar cells. Here, a generic strategy based on multi-component acceptor mixtures is presented that permits to considerably improve the thermal stability of non-fullerene based devices and thus paves the way for large-area organic solar cells.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cosmogenic 3 He exposure dating in mafic rocks by “Virtual mineral separation” of pyroxene

We describe a “virtual mineral separation” method for measuring the cosmogenic 3 He concentration in pyroxene in mafic rocks that consist mainly of plagioclase and pyroxene, without physically separating the minerals. This approach is significantly faster and more cost-effective than the conventional method, which requires physical separation and purification of pyroxene grains by time-consuming and labor-intensive crushing, acid cleaning, magnetic separation, HF etching, and handpicking under a microscope. The premise of the method is that helium diffusivity is much higher in plagioclase than in pyroxene, so controlled preheating of a mixed whole-rock sample can degas 3 He from plagioclase while retaining all 3 He in pyroxene. A second heating step releases all 3 He from pyroxene for measurement. To then obtain a 3 He concentration in pyroxene rather than the whole rock, we determine the pyroxene weight fraction in the sample using X-ray computed tomography (CT). A comparison of 3 He concentrations in pyroxene measured using virtual mineral separation with those measured in the same samples by physical mineral separation in previous work shows no evidence of systematic bias between the methods. Virtual mineral separation greatly simplifies the workflow for 3 He exposure-dating of mafic rocks, reduces time, effort, and cost, and permits measurements on very small samples. This enables new emerging applications of exposure dating, such as quantifying stochastic surface processes, ecosystem studies, and potential subglacial bedrock exposure dating.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stopping to reflect: Asymptotic static moving mirrors as quantum analogs of classical radiation

Radiation from an accelerating charge is a basic process that can serve as an intersection between classical and quantum physics. We present two exactly soluble electron trajectories that permit analysis of the radiation emitted, exploring its time evolution and spectrum by analogy with the moving mirror model of the dynamic Casimir effect. These classical solutions are finite energy, rectilinear (nonperiodic), asymptotically zero velocity worldlines with corresponding quantum analog beta Bogolyubov coefficients. One of them has an interesting connection to uniform acceleration and Leonardo da Vinci's water pitcher experiment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Leveraging Temperature-Dependent (Electro)Chemical Kinetics for High-Throughput Flow Battery Characterization

The library of redox-active organics that are potential candidates for electrochemical energy storage in flow batteries is exceedingly vast, necessitating high-throughput characterization of molecular lifetimes. Demonstrated extremely stable chemistries require accurate yet rapid cell cycling tests, a demand often frustrated by time-denominated capacity fade mechanisms. We have developed a high-throughput setup for elevated temperature cycling of redox flow batteries, providing a new dimension in characterization parameter space to explore. We utilize it to evaluate capacity fade rates of aqueous redox-active organic molecules, as functions of temperature. We demonstrate Arrhenius-like behavior in the temporal capacity fade rates of multiple flow battery electrolytes, permitting extrapolation to lower operating temperatures. Collectively, these results highlight the importance of accelerated decomposition protocols to expedite the screening process of candidate molecules for long lifetime flow batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evolution of Idealized Vortices in Monsoon-Like Shears: Application to Monsoon Depressions

Abstract This study examines processes fundamental to the development of South Asian monsoon depressions using an array of integrations of an idealized convection-permitting numerical model. In each integration, a wave of initially small amplitude is subjected to a different amount of vertical and meridional wind shear, with temperature and moisture fields constructed according to realistic constraints. Based on the evolution of this disturbance into monsoon depression–like vortices, two features of the background environment emerge as important: the low-level gradient of moist static energy (MSE) and the low-level meridional shear. As the low-level MSE gradient steepens, the disturbance becomes stronger and produces more rain. This strengthening results from the interaction of the vortex with latent heat release by convection that is in turn organized by positive MSE advection in the northerly flow west of the vortex. In this region of advection, moister air from the north ascends along upward-sloping isentropes, driving moist convection. The disturbance also becomes stronger with increasing meridional shear, which makes the environment more barotropically unstable. The absence of either of these two features of the background environment prevents substantial growth of the disturbance. Our results suggest that monsoon depression growth in South Asia is fostered by the coexistence of a strong low-level MSE gradient with strong meridional wind shear associated with the monsoon trough.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Homomorphic Encryption for Electrical Metering Aggregation: Protecting the Privacy of Building Tenants

Electrical meters are devices that measure consumer electricity usage. The data collected by these meters is necessary for utility billing and electrical grid management but can also be used to assess the environmental impact of buildings. Prior research has found that unprotected metering data could potentially be used to infer some information about the behaviors of building tenants by detecting changes in electricity usage. For example, a period of low electricity usage could suggest that the tenants are not in the building. As smart metering becomes more common, there is a growing need for data privacy protections for metering data that do not negatively impact the quality and availability of data used for energy management and billing applications. To identify potential solutions, we developed a Python-based data aggregation platform to analyze the potential efficacy of privacy-enhancing technologies for energy metering applications. This platform aggregates groups of metering sites into virtual buildings, which could potentially detach changes in electrical activity from individual tenants, making it more difficult to track the activity of a specific tenant. To further protect data during analysis, this project utilizes homomorphic encryption as part of its initial approach. Homomorphic encryption offers a means of protecting energy consumption data while permitting mathematical operations to be performed without the need to know the data contents. This allows for data to be processed into usable statistics without revealing energy consumption information. A series of homomorphic encryption libraries were evaluated to determine their applicability and limitations in the context of metering data. The use of these techniques may help to reassure consumers and encourage further adoption of smart grid infrastructure.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Low-cost buffer storage for solar industrial steam applications

Motivation and importance: Many industrial process heat consumers operate throughout the day, and deep decarbonization with solar energy requires thermal energy storage. Thermal energy storage provides an additional operational benefit of firm delivery of steam – essential to reducing the risk of costly production interruptions. The group of process heat consumers that use steam for biofuels production for the California transportation fuels market is incentivized through the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) to reduce their carbon intensity through the use of solar steam. Examples include ethanol and dimethyl ether production. The production of these and other fuels involves distillation driven by steam reboilers with steam pressures in the range 100-280 psig. These pressures can be delivered from the type of thermal energy storage that has been the focus of this project – a steam accumulator Sunvapor, Inc. (SVI) calls a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” or “BSA TM ”. Our project adds to the understanding of the design and integration of steam accumulators charged by solar thermal energy in a biofuels production facility, and similar facilities that consume process steam. The fuel application requires a demanding level of Process Safety Management not found in other steam applications. The type of steam accumulator SVI engineered and built integrates steam generation and storage in one vessel to reduce cost. Achieving a first of a kind permit to operate such a first device has also added to the understanding of the industrial application of such systems. Goals: The overall goal of the project has been to demonstrate the advantages that a “Bullet Steam Accumulator” (BSA™) can provide to solar steam integration with a manufacturing process. The industrial host has already been convinced of the potential of the available solar steam to lower than carbon intensity score. They have been interviewed for a number of publications such as that tout the advantages SVI’s system brings to their operations. Accomplishments: At the end of 2023 Sunvapor placed in service the country’s first industrial solar boiler with thermal energy storage. At the same time, this placement in service represents the first pilot commercial system to decarbonize biofuels production through the use of solar thermal energy. While the full technical effectiveness will be shown as soon as the customer’s plant is able to consume the available steam, the economic feasibility was indicated early in the project when the combination of costs and steam pricing required to meet investor expectations was determined. The project represents a reference pilot from which a full-scale commercial system may be expanded. This pilot is a necessary first step in providing the full potential benefits to the public, including decarbonization of transportation fuels. The decarbonization of the separation steps in fuels production may be the most cost-effective and nearest term solar fuel. Co-benefits include a reduction of air pollutants such as NOx and particulate matter, and job creation for the construction, operation and maintenance of industrial solar facilities.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Data Transferability and Collection Consistency in Marine Renewable Energy

Concerns about the potential effects of tidal turbines and wave energy devices on the marine environment continue to slow siting and permitting/consenting of single devices and arrays worldwide. While research studies and early results from post-installation monitoring over the past decade have informed interactions between marine renewable energy (MRE) devices, marine animals, and habitats, regulators still demonstrate considerable reluctance to accelerate the permitting/consenting process for devices and arrays. Furthermore, the MRE industry is struggling with the high costs of baseline assessments and post-installation monitoring, as well as long timelines for obtaining permits, which leads to uncertainty and risk related to project financing. Regulators require assessment and monitoring information to allow them to carry out the necessary analyses to describe, permit/consent, and manage the environmental risks associated with new MRE technologies and new uses of ocean space. One way to reduce risks to the industry and the environment and to allow for acceleration of the permitting/consenting process could be to transfer learning, analyses, and data sets from one country to another, among projects, and across jurisdictional boundaries. In addition, data are collected around early-stage MRE devices using many different methods, instruments, and measurement scales. If similar parameters and accessible methods of data collection were used for baseline assessments and post-installation monitoring around all early-stage devices and MRE developments, the results would be more readily comparable. This comparability would lead to a decrease in scientific uncertainty and support a common understanding of the risk of MRE devices to the marine environment. This in turn would facilitate more efficient and shorter permitting/consenting processes, which would decrease the financial risk for MRE project development. As a means of addressing the concept of transferring data (information, learning, analyses, and data sets) among projects and collecting data consistently, Annex IV has developed a data transferability process that has been socialized with the MRE community, which includes regulators, industry, developers, consultants, and researchers. The data transferability process consists of five components: 1. A Data Transferability Framework brings together data sets in an organized fashion, compares the applicability of each data set for use on other projects, and guides the process of data transfer 2. A Data Collection Consistency Table provides preferred measurement methods or processes, reporting units, and the most common methods of analysis or interpretation and use of data 3. A Monitoring Data Sets Discoverability Matrix allows a practitioner to discover data sets based on the approach presented in the Framework 4. Best Management Practices (BMPs) include five BMPs related to data transferability and collection consistency 5. An Implementation Plan presents an approach for implementing and applying the data transferability process. This report documents the background and development of the data transferability process and associated components and summarizes the next steps needed to successfully implement and apply the data transferability process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root Cause Correlation Analysis of Software Failures via Orthogonal Defect Classification and Natural Language Processing

Systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) is becoming an increasingly popular technique to assess how complex digital software systems can fail. Rather than defining failures by their observable failure events, which may be sparse especially for safety rated nuclear digital instrumentation and control systems (DI&C), failures are defined as postulated unsafe actions under specific contextual conditions. This permits a top-down analysis of system hazards and identifies whether imposed constraints and requirements can sufficiently address undesirable hazards. However, STPA is a qualitative approach at identifying inadequacies in the development process and cannot currently be used to quantify unsafe action likelihoods for probabilistic risk assessment. Therefore, in this work, we examine the root causes of software failure and explore whether a consistent correlation can be linked to specific unsafe action classes. We implement Lbl2Vec, an unsupervised document classification and retrieval algorithm, on a database of 4,096 software defect reports acquired from various open-source software systems. By analyzing sentence structure, embedded labels, and word vectors, we show that certain defect types positively correlate to specific unsafe action classes over others. The correlations developed can be used to estimate the failure probability of safety intended DI&C systems which provides a licensing basis for nuclear plant modernization efforts.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Markov framework for generalized post-event systems recovery modeling: From single to multihazards

State-dependent models can be used to represent the system recovery process as a series of stochastic transitions from lower to higher functional states. However, the applications of these models have been limited in scope and there is a lack of a generalized recovery modeling framework. A generalized framework would permit a robust forecasting of systems and system-of-systems recovery under multiple hazards, and more broadly, would contribute to community disaster preparedness. This paper develops a generalized post hazard-event recovery modeling framework based on state-dependent Markov-type processes. We then apply the proposed framework to solve a spectrum of problems that range from hind-casting single-system recovery following a single hazard event to forecasting post-event trajectories under multiple hazards and modeling the recovery of a system-of-systems. First, Markov chains are used to hind-cast the observed recovery for a portfolio of buildings affected by the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake. Next, Markov processes are used to formulate a parametric post hazard-event recovery model, which can be updated using Bayesian statistics when relevant datasets become available. Semi-Markov processes are then used to develop a more general model of single hazard recovery, which accounts for the intensity of the loading and level of damage caused by the event. Semi-Markov processes with non-renewal features are then used to account for multihazard interactions in a post-event recovery model, and applied to a case study that involves a community in Charleston, South Carolina. Lastly, Markov-type processes are combined with Bayesian networks to model the recovery of residential, commercial, educational, and industrial buildings (system-of-systems) following a hazard event. Overall, these applications demonstrate the versatility of the Markov framework towards handling recovery problems with varying levels of complexity.

42 ENGINEERING↗