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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

Reliability growth modeling analysis of the space shuttle main engines based upon the Weibull process

The Weibull process, identified as the inhomogeneous Poisson process with the Weibull intensity function, is used to model the reliability growth assessment of the space shuttle main engine test and flight failure data. Additional tables of percentage-point probabilities for several different values of the confidence coefficient have been generated for setting (1-alpha)100-percent two sided confidence interval estimates on the mean time between failures. The tabled data pertain to two cases: (1) time-terminated testing, and (2) failure-terminated testing. The critical values of the three test statistics, namely Cramer-von Mises, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, and chi-square, were calculated and tabled for use in the goodness of fit tests for the engine reliability data. Numerical results are presented for five different groupings of the engine data that reflect the actual response to the failures.

Wheeler, J. T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

On The Management Of Radiographic Noise Sources

The numerous types of noise in a typical radiograph include: quantum noise, read noise, thermal noise, scatter, etc. The character of these noise sources can be non-stationary, non-linear, Gaussian, Poisson, white, pink, additive, multiplicative, point, random and/or systematic. Furthermore these noise sources impact radiographic factors including: conjugates, exposure duration, filtration, detector type, Swank & Fano factors, Bucky grids, energy, collection optics, charge leakage, digitizer type, dynamic range, detector temperature, pixel size, calibration technique, system stability etc. In short, the “noise” in a radiograph is a very complex subject with many real-world tradeoffs. We delineate the noise sources in a typical silicon detector (e.g. CCD, CMOS, or AmSi, TFT) to illustrate the character of those sources and statistics behind some of the choices required to readout and calibrate those detectors.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS1997

Computations of Complex Three-Dimensional Turbulent Free Jets

Three-dimensional, incompressible turbulent jets with rectangular and elliptical cross-sections are simulated with a finite-difference numerical method. The full Navier- Stokes equations are solved at low Reynolds numbers, whereas at high Reynolds numbers filtered forms of the equations are solved along with a sub-grid scale model to approximate the effects of the unresolved scales. A 2-N storage, third-order Runge-Kutta scheme is used for temporary discretization and a fourth-order compact scheme is used for spatial discretization. Although such methods are widely used in the simulation of compressible flows, the lack of an evolution equation for pressure or density presents particular difficulty in incompressible flows. The pressure-velocity coupling must be established indirectly. It is achieved, in this study, through a Poisson equation which is solved by a compact scheme of the same order of accuracy. The numerical formulation is validated and the dispersion and dissipation errors are documented by the solution of a wide range of benchmark problems. Three-dimensional computations are performed for different inlet conditions which model the naturally developing and forced jets. The experimentally observed phenomenon of axis-switching is captured in the numerical simulation, and it is confirmed through flow visualization that this is based on self-induction of the vorticity field. Statistical quantities such as mean velocity, mean pressure, two-point velocity spatial correlations and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stresses are presented. Detailed budgets of the mean momentum and Reynolds stress equations are presented to aid in the turbulence modeling of complex jets. Simulations of circular jets are used to quantify the effect of the non-uniform curvature of the non-circular jets.

Wilson, Robert V.↗
DOE OSTI2015

The SRT reconstruction algorithm for semiquantification in PET imaging

Purpose: The spline reconstruction technique (SRT) is a new, fast algorithm based on a novel numerical implementation of an analytic representation of the inverse Radon transform. The mathematical details of this algorithm and comparisons with filtered backprojection were presented earlier in the literature. In this study, the authors present a comparison between SRT and the ordered-subsets expectation–maximization (OSEM) algorithm for determining contrast and semiquantitative indices of {sup 18}F-FDG uptake. Methods: The authors implemented SRT in the software for tomographic image reconstruction (STIR) open-source platform and evaluated this technique using simulated and real sinograms obtained from the GE Discovery ST positron emission tomography/computer tomography scanner. All simulations and reconstructions were performed in STIR. For OSEM, the authors used the clinical protocol of their scanner, namely, 21 subsets and two iterations. The authors also examined images at one, four, six, and ten iterations. For the simulation studies, the authors analyzed an image-quality phantom with cold and hot lesions. Two different versions of the phantom were employed at two different hot-sphere lesion-to-background ratios (LBRs), namely, 2:1 and 4:1. For each noiseless sinogram, 20 Poisson realizations were created at five different noise levels. In addition to making visual comparisons of the reconstructed images, the authors determined contrast and bias as a function of the background image roughness (IR). For the real-data studies, sinograms of an image-quality phantom simulating the human torso were employed. The authors determined contrast and LBR as a function of the background IR. Finally, the authors present plots of contrast as a function of IR after smoothing each reconstructed image with Gaussian filters of six different sizes. Statistical significance was determined by employing the Wilcoxon rank-sum test. Results: In both simulated and real studies, SRT exhibits higher contrast and lower bias than OSEM at the cold lesions. This improvement is achieved at the expense of increasing the noise in the reconstructed images. For the hot lesions, SRT exhibits a small improvement in contrast and LBR over OSEM with 21 subsets and two iterations; however, this improvement is not statistically significant. As the number of iterations increases, the performance of OSEM improves over SRT but again without statistical significance. The curves of contrast and LBR as a function of IR after Gaussian blurring indicate that the advantage of SRT in the cold regions is maintained even after decreasing the noise level by Gaussian blurring. Conclusions: SRT, at the expense of slightly increased noise in the reconstructed images, reconstructs images of higher contrast and lower bias than the clinical protocol of OSEM. This improvement is particularly evident for images involving cold regions. Thus, it appears that SRT should be particularly useful for the quantification of low-count and cold regions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Improved silicon carbide for advanced heat engines

This is the third annual technical report for the program entitled, Improved Silicon Carbide for Advanced Heat Engines, for the period February 16, 1987 to February 15, 1988. The objective of the original program was the development of high strength, high reliability silicon carbide parts with complex shapes suitable for use in advanced heat engines. Injection molding is the forming method selected for the program because it is capable of forming complex parts adaptable for mass production on an economically sound basis. The goals of the revised program are to reach a Weibull characteristic strength of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and a Weibull modulus of 16 for bars tested in 4-point loading. Two tasks are discussed: Task 1 which involves materials and process improvements, and Task 2 which is a MOR bar matrix to improve strength and reliability. Many statistically designed experiments were completed under task 1 which improved the composition of the batches, the mixing of the powders, the sinter and anneal cycles. The best results were obtained by an attritor mixing process which yielded strengths in excess of 550 MPa (80 ksi) and an individual Weibull modulus of 16.8 for a 9-sample group. Strengths measured at 1200 and 1400 C were equal to the room temperature strength. Annealing of machined test bars significantly improved the strength. Molding yields were measured and flaw distributions were observed to follow a Poisson process. The second iteration of the Task 2 matrix experiment is described.

Whalen, Thomas J.↗
DOE OSTI2014

CMB ISW-lensing bispectrum from cosmic strings

We study the effect of weak lensing by cosmic (super-)strings on the higher-order statistics of the cosmic microwave background (CMB). A cosmic string segment is expected to cause weak lensing as well as an integrated Sachs-Wolfe (ISW) effect, the so-called Gott-Kaiser-Stebbins (GKS) effect, to the CMB temperature fluctuation, which are thus naturally cross-correlated. We point out that, in the presence of such a correlation, yet another kind of the post-recombination CMB temperature bispectra, the ISW-lensing bispectra, will arise in the form of products of the auto- and cross-power spectra. We first present an analytic method to calculate the autocorrelation of the temperature fluctuations induced by the strings, and the cross-correlation between the temperature fluctuation and the lensing potential both due to the string network. In our formulation, the evolution of the string network is assumed to be characterized by the simple analytic model, the velocity-dependent one scale model, and the intercommutation probability is properly incorporated in order to characterize the possible superstringy nature. Furthermore, the obtained power spectra are dominated by the Poisson-distributed string segments, whose correlations are assumed to satisfy the simple relations. We then estimate the signal-to-noise ratios of the string-induced ISW-lensing bispectra and discuss the detectability of such CMB signals from the cosmic string network. It is found that in the case of the smaller string tension, Gμ << 10{sup -7}, the ISW-lensing bispectrum induced by a cosmic string network can constrain the string-model parameters even more tightly than the purely GKS-induced bispectrum in the ongoing and future CMB observations on small scales.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
NASA NTRS2006

Hybrid MD-Nernst Planck Model of Alpha-hemolysin Conductance Properties

Motivated by experiments in which an applied electric field translocates polynucleotides through an alpha-hemolysin protein channel causing ionic current transient blockade, a hybrid simulation model is proposed to predict the conductance properties of the open channel. Time scales corresponding to ion permeation processes are reached using the Poisson-Nemst-Planck (PNP) electro-diffusion model in which both solvent and local ion concentrations are represented as a continuum. The diffusion coefficients of the ions (K(+) and Cl(-)) input in the PNP model are, however, calculated from all-atom molecular dynamics (MD). In the MD simulations, a reduced representation of the channel is used. The channel is solvated in a 1 M KCI solution, and an external electric field is applied. The pore specific diffusion coefficients for both ionic species are reduced 5-7 times in comparison to bulk values. Significant statistical variations (17-45%) of the pore-ions diffusivities are observed. Within the statistics, the ionic diffusivities remain invariable for a range of external applied voltages between 30 and 240mV. In the 2D-PNP calculations, the pore stem is approximated by a smooth cylinder of radius approx. 9A with two constriction blocks where the radius is reduced to approx. 6A. The electrostatic potential includes the contribution from the atomistic charges. The MD-PNP model shows that the atomic charges are responsible for the rectifying behaviour and for the slight anion selectivity of the a-hemolysin pore. Independent of the hierarchy between the anion and cation diffusivities, the anionic contribution to the total ionic current will dominate. The predictions of the MD-PNP model are in good agreement with experimental data and give confidence in the present approach of bridging time scales by combining a microscopic and macroscopic model.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact and mitigation of polarized extragalactic foregrounds on Bayesian cosmic microwave background lensing

Future low-noise cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing measurements from e.g., CMB-S4 will be polarization dominated, rather than temperature dominated. In this new regime, statistically optimal lensing reconstructions outperform the standard quadratic estimator, but their sensitivity to extragalactic polarized foregrounds has not been quantified. Using realistic simulations of polarized radio and infrared point sources, we show for the first time that optimal Bayesian lensing from a CMB-S4-like experiment is insensitive to the expected level of polarized extragalactic foregrounds after masking, as long as an accurate foreground power spectrum is included in the analysis. For more futuristic experiments where these foregrounds could cause a detectable bias, we propose a new method to jointly fit for lensing and the Poisson foregrounds, generalizing the bias hardening from the standard quadratic estimator to Bayesian lensing.

cosmic microwave background↗
DOE OSTI2022

General-Purpose Unsupervised Cyber Anomaly Detection via Non-Negative Tensor Factorization

Distinguishing malicious anomalous activities from unusual but benign activities is a fundamental challenge for cyber defenders. Prior studies have shown that statistical user behavior analysis yields accurate detections by learning behavior profiles from observed user activity. These unsupervised models are able to generalize to unseen types of attacks by detecting deviations from normal behavior, without knowledge of specific attack signatures. However, approaches proposed to date based on probabilistic matrix factorization are limited by the information conveyed in a two-dimensional space. Non-negative tensor factorization, on the other hand, is a powerful unsupervised machine learning method that naturally models multi-dimensional data, capturing complex and multi-faceted details of behavior profiles. Herein, our new unsupervised statistical anomaly detection methodology matches or surpasses state-of-the-art supervised learning baselines across several challenging and diverse cyber application areas, including detection of compromised user credentials, botnets, spam e-mails, and fraudulent credit card transactions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1990

Compound estimation procedures in reliability

At NASA, components and subsystems of components in the Space Shuttle and Space Station generally go through a number of redesign stages. While data on failures for various design stages are sometimes available, the classical procedures for evaluating reliability only utilize the failure data on the present design stage of the component or subsystem. Often, few or no failures have been recorded on the present design stage. Previously, Bayesian estimators for the reliability of a single component, conditioned on the failure data for the present design, were developed. These new estimators permit NASA to evaluate the reliability, even when few or no failures have been recorded. Point estimates for the latter evaluation were not possible with the classical procedures. Since different design stages of a component (or subsystem) generally have a good deal in common, the development of new statistical procedures for evaluating the reliability, which consider the entire failure record for all design stages, has great intuitive appeal. A typical subsystem consists of a number of different components and each component has evolved through a number of redesign stages. The present investigations considered compound estimation procedures and related models. Such models permit the statistical consideration of all design stages of each component and thus incorporate all the available failure data to obtain estimates for the reliability of the present version of the component (or subsystem). A number of models were considered to estimate the reliability of a component conditioned on its total failure history from two design stages. It was determined that reliability estimators for the present design stage, conditioned on the complete failure history for two design stages have lower risk than the corresponding estimators conditioned only on the most recent design failure data. Several models were explored and preliminary models involving bivariate Poisson distribution and the Consael Process (a bivariate Poisson process) were developed. Possible short comings of the models are noted. An example is given to illustrate the procedures. These investigations are ongoing with the aim of developing estimators that extend to components (and subsystems) with three or more design stages.

Barnes, Ron↗
DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Latent uncertainties of the precalculated track Monte Carlo method

Purpose: While significant progress has been made in speeding up Monte Carlo (MC) dose calculation methods, they remain too time-consuming for the purpose of inverse planning. To achieve clinically usable calculation speeds, a precalculated Monte Carlo (PMC) algorithm for proton and electron transport was developed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs). The algorithm utilizes pregenerated particle track data from conventional MC codes for different materials such as water, bone, and lung to produce dose distributions in voxelized phantoms. While PMC methods have been described in the past, an explicit quantification of the latent uncertainty arising from the limited number of unique tracks in the pregenerated track bank is missing from the paper. With a proper uncertainty analysis, an optimal number of tracks in the pregenerated track bank can be selected for a desired dose calculation uncertainty. Methods: Particle tracks were pregenerated for electrons and protons using EGSnrc and GEANT4 and saved in a database. The PMC algorithm for track selection, rotation, and transport was implemented on the Compute Unified Device Architecture (CUDA) 4.0 programming framework. PMC dose distributions were calculated in a variety of media and compared to benchmark dose distributions simulated from the corresponding general-purpose MC codes in the same conditions. A latent uncertainty metric was defined and analysis was performed by varying the pregenerated track bank size and the number of simulated primary particle histories and comparing dose values to a “ground truth” benchmark dose distribution calculated to 0.04% average uncertainty in voxels with dose greater than 20% of D{sub max}. Efficiency metrics were calculated against benchmark MC codes on a single CPU core with no variance reduction. Results: Dose distributions generated using PMC and benchmark MC codes were compared and found to be within 2% of each other in voxels with dose values greater than 20% of the maximum dose. In proton calculations, a small (≤1 mm) distance-to-agreement error was observed at the Bragg peak. Latent uncertainty was characterized for electrons and found to follow a Poisson distribution with the number of unique tracks per energy. A track bank of 12 energies and 60000 unique tracks per pregenerated energy in water had a size of 2.4 GB and achieved a latent uncertainty of approximately 1% at an optimal efficiency gain over DOSXYZnrc. Larger track banks produced a lower latent uncertainty at the cost of increased memory consumption. Using an NVIDIA GTX 590, efficiency analysis showed a 807 × efficiency increase over DOSXYZnrc for 16 MeV electrons in water and 508 × for 16 MeV electrons in bone. Conclusions: The PMC method can calculate dose distributions for electrons and protons to a statistical uncertainty of 1% with a large efficiency gain over conventional MC codes. Before performing clinical dose calculations, models to calculate dose contributions from uncharged particles must be implemented. Following the successful implementation of these models, the PMC method will be evaluated as a candidate for inverse planning of modulated electron radiation therapy and scanned proton beams.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scattering theory in noncanonical phase space: A Drift-Kinetic collision operator for weakly collisional plasmas

After developing a scattering theory for grazing collisions in general noncanonical phase spaces, we introduce a guiding center collision operator in five-dimensional phase space designed for plasma regimes characterized by long wavelengths (relative to the Larmor radius), low frequencies (relative to the cyclotron frequency), and weak collisionality (where repeated Coulomb collisions induce cumulatively small changes in particle magnetic moment). The collision operator is fully determined by the noncanonical Hamiltonian structure of guiding center dynamics and exhibits a metriplectic structure, ensuring the conservation of particle number, momentum, energy, and interior Casimir invariants. It also satisfies an H-theorem, allowing for deviations from an equilibrium Maxwellian distribution due to the nontrivial kernel of the noncanonical guiding center Poisson tensor, spanned by the magnetic moment. We propose that this collision operator and its underlying mathematical structure may offer valuable insight into the study of turbulence, transport, and self-organizing phenomena in both laboratory and astrophysical plasmas.

Hamiltonian mechanics↗
DOE OSTI2018

Density split statistics: Cosmological constraints from counts and lensing in cells in DES Y1 and SDSS data

Here, we derive cosmological constraints from the probability distribution function (PDF) of evolved large-scale matter density fluctuations. We do this by splitting lines of sight by density based on their count of tracer galaxies, and by measuring both gravitational shear around and counts-in-cells in overdense and underdense lines of sight, in Dark Energy Survey (DES) First Year and Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data. Our analysis uses a perturbation theory model and is validated using N-body simulation realizations and log-normal mocks. It allows us to constrain cosmology, bias and stochasticity of galaxies with respect to matter density and, in addition, the skewness of the matter density field. From a Bayesian model comparison, we find that the data weakly prefer a connection of galaxies and matter that is stochastic beyond Poisson fluctuations on ≤ 20 arcmin angular smoothing scale. The two stochasticity models we fit yield DES constraints on the matter density Ω m = 0.26 +0.04 –0.03 and Ω m = 0.28 +0.05 –0.04 that are consistent with each other. These values also agree with the DES analysis of galaxy and shear two-point functions (3x2pt, DES Collaboration et al.) that only uses second moments of the PDF. Constraints on σ8 are model dependent (σ 8 = 0.97 +0.07 –0.06 and 0.80 +0.06 –0.07 for the two stochasticity models), but consistent with each other and with the 3 x 2pt results if stochasticity is at the low end of the posterior range. As an additional test of gravity, counts and lensing in cells allow to compare the skewness S 3 of the matter density PDF to its ΛCDM prediction. We find no evidence of excess skewness in any model or data set, with better than 25 per cent relative precision in the skewness estimate from DES alone.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mortality among individuals exposed to atomic bomb radiation in utero: 1950–2012

We examined the mortality risks among 2463 individuals who were exposed in utero to atomic bomb radiation in Hiroshima or Nagasaki in August 1945 and were followed from October 1950 through 2012. Individual estimates of mother’s weighted absorbed uterine dose (DS02R1) were used. Poisson regression method was used to estimate the radiation-associated excess relative risk per Gy (ERR/Gy) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for cause-specific mortality. Head size, birth weight, and parents’ survival status were evaluated as potential mediators of radiation effect. There were 339 deaths (216 males and 123 females) including deaths from solid cancer (n = 137), lymphohematopoietic cancer (n = 8), noncancer disease (n = 134), external cause (n = 56), and unknown cause (n = 4). Among males, the unadjusted ERR/Gy (95% CI) was increased for noncancer disease mortality (1.22, 0.10–3.14), but not for solid cancer mortality (-0.18,< -0.77–0.95); the unadjusted ERR/Gy for external cause mortality was not statistically significant (0.28, < -0.60–2.36). Among females, the unadjusted ERRs/Gy were increased for solid cancer (2.24, 0.44–5.58), noncancer (2.86, 0.56–7.64), and external cause mortality (2.57, 0.20–9.19). The ERRs/Gy adjusted for potential mediators did not change appreciably for solid cancer mortality, but decreased notably for noncancer mortality (0.39, < -0.43–1.91 for males; 1.48, - 0.046–4.55 for females) and external cause mortality (0.10, < -0.57–1.96 for males; 1.38, < -0.46–5.95 for females). In conclusion, antenatal radiation exposure is a consistent risk factor for increased solid cancer mortality among females, but not among males. The effect of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on noncancer disease and external cause mortality among individuals exposed in utero was mediated through small head size, low birth weight, and parental loss.

Public, Environmental & Occupational Health↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Framework Including Recombination for Analyzing the Dynamics of Within-Host HIV Genetic Diversity

This paper presents a novel population genetic model and a computationally and statistically tractable framework for analyzing within-host HIV diversity based on serial samples of HIV DNA sequences. This model considers within-host HIV evolution during the chronic phase of infection and assumes that the HIV population is homogeneous at the beginning, corresponding to the time of seroconversion, and evolves according to the Wright-Fisher reproduction model with recombination and variable mutation rate across nucleotide sites. In addition, the population size and generation time vary over time as piecewise constant functions of time. Under this model I approximate the genealogical and mutational processes for serial samples of DNA sequences by a continuous coalescent-recombination process and an inhomogeneous Poisson process, respectively. Based on these derivations, an efficient algorithm is described for generating polymorphisms in serial samples of DNA sequences under the model including various substitution models. Extensions of the algorithm are also described for other demographic scenarios that can be more suitable for analyzing the dynamics of genetic diversity of other pathogens in vitro and in vivo . For the case of the infinite-sites model, I derive analytical formulas for the expected number of polymorphic sites in sample of DNA sequences, and apply the developed simulation and analytical methods to explore the fit of the model to HIV genetic diversity based on serial samples of HIV DNA sequences from 9 HIV-infected individuals. The results particularly show that the estimates of the ratio of recombination rate over mutation rate can vary over time between very high and low values, which can be considered as a consequence of the impact of selection forces.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-R-38: Impact of Smoothing and Noise On Robustness of CBCT Textural Features for Prediction of Response to Radiotherapy Treatment of Head and Neck Cancers

Purpose: To examine the impact of image smoothing and noise on the robustness of textural information extracted from CBCT images for prediction of radiotherapy response for patients with head/neck (H/N) cancers. Methods: CBCT image datasets for 14 patients with H/N cancer treated with radiation (70 Gy in 35 fractions) were investigated. A deformable registration algorithm was used to fuse planning CT’s to CBCT’s. Tumor volume was automatically segmented on each CBCT image dataset. Local control at 1-year was used to classify 8 patients as responders (R), and 6 as non-responders (NR). A smoothing filter [2D Adaptive Weiner (2DAW) with 3 different windows (ψ=3, 5, and 7)], and two noise models (Poisson and Gaussian, SNR=25) were implemented, and independently applied to CBCT images. Twenty-two textural features, describing the spatial arrangement of voxel intensities calculated from gray-level co-occurrence matrices, were extracted for all tumor volumes. Results: Relative to CBCT images without smoothing, none of 22 textural features extracted showed any significant differences when smoothing was applied (using the 2DAW with filtering parameters of ψ=3 and 5), in the responder and non-responder groups. When smoothing, 2DAW with ψ=7 was applied, one textural feature, Information Measure of Correlation, was significantly different relative to no smoothing. Only 4 features (Energy, Entropy, Homogeneity, and Maximum-Probability) were found to be statistically different between the R and NR groups (Table 1). These features remained statistically significant discriminators for R and NR groups in presence of noise and smoothing. Conclusion: This preliminary work suggests that textural classifiers for response prediction, extracted from H&N CBCT images, are robust to low-power noise and low-pass filtering. While other types of filters will alter the spatial frequencies differently, these results are promising. The current study is subject to Type II errors. A much larger cohort of patients is needed to confirm these results. This work was supported in part by a grant from Varian Medical Systems (Palo Alto, CA)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Detecting regular sound changes in linguistics as events of concerted evolution

Background: Concerted evolution is normally used to describe parallel changes at different sites in a genome, but it is also observed in languages where a specific phoneme changes to the same other phoneme in many words in the lexicon—a phenomenon known as regular sound change. We develop a general statistical model that can detect concerted changes in aligned sequence data and apply it to study regular sound changes in the Turkic language family. Results: Linguistic evolution, unlike the genetic substitutional process, is dominated by events of concerted evolutionary change. Our model identified more than 70 historical events of regular sound change that occurred throughout the evolution of the Turkic language family, while simultaneously inferring a dated phylogenetic tree. Including regular sound changes yielded an approximately 4-fold improvement in the characterization of linguistic change over a simpler model of sporadic change, improved phylogenetic inference, and returned more reliable and plausible dates for events on the phylogenies. The historical timings of the concerted changes closely follow a Poisson process model, and the sound transition networks derived from our model mirror linguistic expectations. Conclusions: We demonstrate that a model with no prior knowledge of complex concerted or regular changes can nevertheless infer the historical timings and genealogical placements of events of concerted change from the signals left in contemporary data. Our model can be applied wherever discrete elements—such as genes, words, cultural trends, technologies, or morphological traits—can change in parallel within an organism or other evolving group.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗