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At least 307 records · Page 17

Modeling arson - An exercise in qualitative model building

A detailed example is given of the role of von Neumann and Morgenstern's 1944 'expected utility theorem' (in the theory of games and economic behavior) in qualitative model building. Specifically, an arsonist's decision as to the amount of time to allocate to arson and related activities is modeled, and the responsiveness of this time allocation to changes in various policy parameters is examined. Both the activity modeled and the method of presentation are intended to provide an introduction to the scope and power of the expected utility theorem in modeling situations of 'choice under uncertainty'. The robustness of such a model is shown to vary inversely with the number of preference restrictions used in the analysis. The fewer the restrictions, the wider is the class of agents to which the model is applicable, and accordingly more confidence is put in the derived results. A methodological discussion on modeling human behavior is included.

Heineke, J. M.↗

The Three Gorges Dam Affects Regional Precipitation

Issues regarding building large-scale dams as a solution to power generation and flood control problems have been widely discussed by both natural and social scientists from various disciplines, as well as the policy-makers and public. Since the Chinese government officially approved the Three Gorges Dam (TGD) projects, this largest hydroelectric project in the world has drawn a lot of debates ranging from its social and economic to climatic impacts. The TGD has been partially in use since June 2003. The impact of the TGD is examined through analysis of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall rate and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature and high-resolution simulation using the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). The independent satellite data sets and numerical simulation clearly indicate that the land use change associated with the TGD construction has increased the precipitation in the region between Daba and Qinling mountains and reduced the precipitation in the vicinity of the TGD after the TGD water level abruptly rose from 66 to 135 m in June 2003. This study suggests that the climatic effect of the TGD is on the regional scale (approx.100 km) rather than on the local scale (approx.10 km) as projected in previous studies.

Wu, Liguang↗

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Increased Atmospheric PM 2.5 Events Due to Open Waste Burning in Qaanaaq, Greenland, Summer of 2022

High levels of particulate matter (PM) are relevant to severe air pollution and can adversely impact human health. Maintaining healthy air quality for the residents of the Arctic region is essential to satisfy the no-one-left-behind policy of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the United Nations. In this study, we installed a PM 2.5 measurement system in Qaanaaq, Greenland, and obtained the first continuous PM 2.5 measurements from 20 July to 13 August, 2022. We observed several increased PM2.5 events; relatively high PM 2.5 levels persisted from 8 August 2022. On the same day, visible black smoke emitted from the Qaanaaq dump site originated from open waste burning. By confirming less transboundary air pollution contributions from remote aerosol source regions to Qaanaaq during the measurement period using NOAA’s HYSPLIT backward trajectory analysis and NASA’s MERRA-2 aerosol re-analysis, we confirmed that the increased PM 2.5 was primarily due to local open waste burning with less contributions from transboundary air pollution. However, small contributions from biomass burning outside Greenland were plausible during the early measurement period. Additionally, NOAA’s HYSPLIT dispersion calculations suggested possible aerosol depositions from local open waste burning to nearby sea areas, such as Baffin Bay. Although the hourly mean PM 2.5 mass concentration was not alarmingly high during the measurement period, future studies should incorporate longer-term continuous PM 2.5 measurements along with other atmospheric chemical analyses to identify possible local air pollution sources in detail to ensure clean ambient air for the future in the Arctic. Our study provides quantitative evidence of the impact of open waste burning on air quality at a study site in Greenland, which could be crucial in developing air quality policies for this region in the Arctic.

aerosols↗

Safer Systems: A NextGen Aviation Safety Strategic Goal

The Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO), is charged by Congress with developing the concepts and plans for the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The National Aviation Safety Strategic Plan (NASSP), developed by the Safety Working Group of the JPDO, focuses on establishing the goals, objectives, and strategies needed to realize the safety objectives of the NextGen Integrated Plan. The three goal areas of the NASSP are Safer Practices, Safer Systems, and Safer Worldwide. Safer Practices emphasizes an integrated, systematic approach to safety risk management through implementation of formalized Safety Management Systems (SMS) that incorporate safety data analysis processes, and the enhancement of methods for ensuring safety is an inherent characteristic of NextGen. Safer Systems emphasizes implementation of safety-enhancing technologies, which will improve safety for human-centered interfaces and enhance the safety of airborne and ground-based systems. Safer Worldwide encourages coordinating the adoption of the safer practices and safer systems technologies, policies and procedures worldwide, such that the maximum level of safety is achieved across air transportation system boundaries. This paper introduces the NASSP and its development, and focuses on the Safer Systems elements of the NASSP, which incorporates three objectives for NextGen systems: 1) provide risk reducing system interfaces, 2) provide safety enhancements for airborne systems, and 3) provide safety enhancements for ground-based systems. The goal of this paper is to expose avionics and air traffic management system developers to NASSP objectives and Safer Systems strategies.

Darr, Stephen T.↗

NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium: Defining the Path to Elegance in Systems

The NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium was formed at the end of 2010 to study the approaches to producing elegant systems on a consistent basis. This has been a transformative study looking at the engineering and organizational basis of systems engineering. The consortium has engaged in a variety of research topics to determine the path to elegant systems. In the second year of the consortium, a systems engineering framework emerged which structured the approach to systems engineering and guided our research. This led in the third year to set of systems engineering postulates that the consortium is continuing to refine. The consortium has conducted several research projects that have contributed significantly to the understanding of systems engineering. The consortium has surveyed the application of the NASA 17 systems engineering processes, explored the physics and statistics of systems integration, and considered organizational aspects of systems engineering discipline integration. The systems integration methods have included system exergy analysis, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), State Variable Analysis, Multidisciplinary Coupling Analysis (MCA), Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), System Cost Modelling, System Robustness, and Value Modelling. Organizational studies have included the variability of processes in change evaluations, margin management within the organization, information theory of board structures, social categorization of unintended consequences, and initial looks at applying cognitive science to systems engineering. Consortium members have also studied the bidirectional influence of policy and law with systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗

NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium: Defining the Path to Elegance in Systems

The NASA Systems Engineering Research Consortium was formed at the end of 2010 to study the approaches to producing elegant systems on a consistent basis. This has been a transformative study looking at the engineering and organizational basis of systems engineering. The consortium has engaged in a variety of research topics to determine the path to elegant systems. In the second year of the consortium, a systems engineering framework emerged which structured the approach to systems engineering and guided our research. This led in the third year to set of systems engineering postulates that the consortium is continuing to refine. The consortium has conducted several research projects that have contributed significantly to the understanding of systems engineering. The consortium has surveyed the application of the NASA 17 systems engineering processes, explored the physics and statistics of systems integration, and considered organizational aspects of systems engineering discipline integration. The systems integration methods have included system energy analysis, Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), State Variable Analysis, Multidisciplinary Coupling Analysis (MCA), Multidisciplinary Design Optimization (MDO), System Cost Modeling, System Robustness, and Value Modeling. Organizational studies have included the variability of processes in change evaluations, margin management within the organization, information theory of board structures, social categorization of unintended consequences, and initial looks at applying cognitive science to systems engineering. Consortium members have also studied the bidirectional influence of policy and law with systems engineering.

Watson, Michael D.↗

Building a Bilingual Google Earth Engine Dashboard to Increase Accessibility to Long-term Time Series Remote Sensing Data for Monitoring Saline System Changes in Chile’s Atacama Desert

Saline systems, consisting of salt flats, ponds, and marshes, provide vital water resources to wildlife and communities in northern Chile’s Atacama Desert, one of the driest regions in the world. Mining is extensive in the Atacama, which contains 30% of the world’s lithium reserves and is abundant in potassium and boron. The groundwater that feeds into salt marshes and ponds is extracted in large volumes for mining operations, limiting the availability of water for ecosystems. However, identifying long-term and large-scale environmental impacts from local lithium mining on the saline systems is limited by region inaccessibility and terrain variability. Open access satellite imagery and cloud computing technology has made studying Atacama saline systems feasible and allowed for collaboration across different agencies and countries. The NASA DEVELOP Program partnered with Chile’s la Universidad de La Serena and Servicio Nacional de Geología y Minería (SERNAGEOMIN) to create the Saline Analysis Tool (SalT) in Google Earth Engine (GEE). SalT is used to analyze the extent and distribution of remote saline systems in the Atacama from 1986 to the present day. The tool filters Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) data from GEE’s data catalog and creates a single composite image per year for analysis. Additional output analyses include land cover classification, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) raster images that can be displayed on the map interface or exported. The tool can also generate time-lapse videos and charts displaying NDVI, NDWI, and land cover over time. A key feature of the tool is the use of a bilingual graphical user interface to make analysis accessible and customizable to different users’ needs—SalT provides options to select an analysis area, analysis time period, and outputs to display or export. The tool also incorporates new Earth observations as they are added to GEE’s catalog. The ability to easily visualize and analyze long-term remote sensing imagery will enable SERNAGEOMIN and la Universidad de la Serena to continually monitor changes in these saline systems and inform future land management policy.

NASA DEVELOP↗

Multilateral Biomedical Data Sharing in the One-year Joint US-Russian Mission on the International Space Station

The One Year Mission (1YM) by two astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS), starting in March 2015, offers a unique opportunity to expand multilateral collaboration by sharing data and resources among the partner agencies in preparation for planned space exploration missions beyond low Earth orbit. Agreements and protocols will be established for the collection, distribution, analysis and reporting of both research and clinical data. Data will be shared between the agencies sponsoring the investigators, and between the research and clinical medicine communities where common interests are identified. The assignment of only two astronauts, one Russian and the other American, to the 1YM necessitated creativity in bilateral efforts to maximize the biomedical return from the opportunity. Addition of Canadian, European and Japanese investigations make the effort even more integrative. There will be three types of investigations: joint, cross‐participation and data‐exchange. The joint investigations have US and Russian coprincipal investigators, and the data acquired will be their common responsibility. The other two types must develop data sharing agreements and processes specific to their needs. A multilateral panel of ISS partner space agencies will develop policies for international exchange of scientific information to meet their science objectives and priorities. They will promote archiving of space flight data and will inform each other and the scientific community at large about the results obtained from space life sciences studies. Integration tasks for the 1YM are based on current experience from the ISS and previous efforts on the Russian space station Mir. Closer coordination between international partners requires more common approaches to remove barriers to multilateral resource utilization on the ISS. Greater integration in implementation should increase utilization efficiency to benefit all participants in spaceflight human research. This presentation will describe the overarching principles for multilateral data collection, analysis and sharing and for data security for medical and research data shared between ISS partners prior to release in public forums.

Charles, John B.↗

Single Stage to Orbit: Politics, Space Technology, and the Quest for Reusable Rocketry

While the glories and tragedies of the space shuttle make headlines and move the nation, the story of the shuttle forms an inseparable part of a lesser-known but no less important drama-the search for a re-useable single-stage-to-orbit rocket. Here an award-winning student of space science, Andrew J. Butrica, examines the long and tangled history of this ambitious concept, from it first glimmerings in the 1920s, when technicians dismissed it as unfeasible, to its highly expensive heyday in the midst of the Cold War, when conservative-backed government programs struggled to produce an operational flight vehicle. Butrica finds a blending of far-sighted engineering and heavy-handed politics. To the first and oldest idea-that of the reusable rocket-powered single-stage- to-orbit vehicle-planners who belonged to what President Eisenhower referred to as the military-industrial complex added experimental (" X "), "aircraft-like" capabilities and, eventually, a "faster, cheaper, smaller" managerial approach. Single Stage to Orbit traces the interplay of technology, corporate interest, and politics, a combination that well served the conservative space agenda and ultimately triumphed-not in the realization of inexpensive, reliable space transport-but in a vision of space militarization and commercialization that would appear settled United States policy in the early twenty-first century. "The 'holy grail' of the spaceship movement has been the development of a vehicle that could accomplish single stage to orbit (SSTO) flight. This study describes the evolution of this concept from the 192'0s to the present, revealing a conservative space agenda that has not yet been the subject of historical analysis. As such, it makes an important contribution to space history literature."-Roger D. Launius, The Smithsonian Institution.

Butrica, Andrew J.↗

Certification Gap Analysis

This report describes a generic method for addressing any new technology to its associated set of regulations and certification criteria. The result is a framework under which a detailed assessment can be conducted. Using just such a framework, the report maps the detailed updated regulations and evolving ASTM standards to the particular technology planning and tests. As a result, a roadmap of NASA technology is documented that shows clear transfer of technology data to industry (standards developers, as well as technology developers) and the FAA regulatory policy and certification staff upon whom certification and policy will be data-driven. A clear description of benefits and gaps are identified, as well.

Herbert Schlickenmaier↗

Recommendations resulting from the SPDS Community-Wide Workshop

The Data Systems Panel identified three critical functionalities of a Space Physics Data System (SPDS): the delivery of self-documenting data, the existence of a matrix of translators between various standard formats (IDFS, CDF, netCDF, HDF, TENNIS, UCLA flat file, and FITS), and a network-based capability for browsing and examining inventory records for the system's data holdings. The recommendations resulting from the workshop include the philosophy, funding, and objectives of a SPDS. Access to quality data is seen as the most important objective by the Policy Panel, with curation and information about the data being integral parts of any accessible data set. The Data Issues Panel concluded that the SPDS can supply encouragement, guidelines, and ultimately provide a mechanism for financial support for data archiving, restoration, and curation. The Software Panel of the SPDS focused on defining the requirements and priorities for SPDS to support common data analysis and data visualization tools and packages.

Source record↗

The Kalman Filter and High Performance Computing at NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining actual observations with model simulations to produce a more accurate description of the earth system than the observations alone provide. The output of data assimilation, sometimes called "the analysis", are accurate regular, gridded datasets of observed and unobserved variables. This is used not only for weather forecasting but is becoming increasingly important for climate research. For example, these datasets may be used to assess retrospectively energy budgets or the effects of trace gases such as ozone. This allows researchers to understand processes driving weather and climate, which have important scientific and policy implications. The primary goal of the NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) is to provide datasets for climate research and to support NASA satellite and aircraft missions. This presentation will: (1) describe ongoing work on the advanced Kalman/Lagrangian filter parallel algorithm for the assimilation of trace gases in the stratosphere; and (2) discuss the Kalman filter in relation to other presentations from the DAO on Four Dimensional Data Assimilation at this meeting. Although the designation "Kalman filter" is often used to describe the overarching work, the series of talks will show that the scientific software and the kind of parallelization techniques that are being developed at the DAO are very different depending on the type of problem being considered, the extent to which the problem is mission critical, and the degree of Software Engineering that has to be applied.

Lyster, Peter M.↗

Development of Life Support System Technologies for Human Lunar Missions

With the Preliminary Design Review (PDR) for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle planned to be completed in 2009, Exploration Life Support (ELS), a technology development project under the National Aeronautics and Space Administration s (NASA) Exploration Technology Development Program, is focusing its efforts on needs for human lunar missions. The ELS Project s goal is to develop and mature a suite of Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) technologies for potential use on human spacecraft under development in support of U.S. Space Exploration Policy. ELS technology development is directed at three major vehicle projects within NASA s Constellation Program (CxP): the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle (CEV), the Altair Lunar Lander and Lunar Surface Systems, including habitats and pressurized rovers. The ELS Project includes four technical elements: Atmosphere Revitalization Systems, Water Recovery Systems, Waste Management Systems and Habitation Engineering, and two cross cutting elements, Systems Integration, Modeling and Analysis, and Validation and Testing. This paper will provide an overview of the ELS Project, connectivity with its customers and an update to content within its technology development portfolio with focus on human lunar missions.

Barta, Daniel J.↗

The Use of the Airborne Thermal/Visible Land Application Sensor (ATLAS) to Determine the Thermal Response Numbers for Urban Areas

Although satellite data are very useful for analysis of the urban heat island effect at a coarse scale, they do not lend themselves to developing a better understanding of which surfaces across the city contribute or drive the development of the urban heat island effect. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., < 15m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace the benefits of the urban forest. These benefits include mitigating the urban heat island effect, making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and aid in overall cooling of the community. High spatial resolution thermal data are required to quantify how artificial surfaces within the city contribute to an increase in urban heating and the benefit of cool surfaces (e.g., surface coatings that reflect much of the incoming solar radiation as opposed to absorbing it thereby lowering urban temperatures). The TRN (thermal response number)(Luvall and Holbo 1989) is a technique using aircraft remotely sensed surface temperatures to quantify the thermal response of urban surfaces. The TRN was used to quantify the thermal response of various urban surface types ranging from completely vegetated surfaces to asphalt and concrete parking lots for several cities in the United States.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

Coevolution of Machine Learning and Process-Based Modelling to Revolutionize Earth and Environmental Sciences: A Perspective

Machine learning (ML) applications in Earth and environmental sciences (EES) have gained incredible momentum in recent years. However, these ML applications have largely evolved in ‘isolation’ from the mechanistic, process-based modelling (PBM) paradigms, which have historically been the cornerstone of scientific discovery and policy support. In this perspective, we assert that the cultural barriers between the ML and PBM communities limit the potential of ML, and even its ‘hybridization’ with PBM, for EES applications. Fundamental, but often ignored, differences between ML and PBM are discussed as well as their strengths and weaknesses in light of three overarching modelling objectives in EES, (1) nowcasting and prediction, (2) scenario analysis, and (3) diagnostic learning. The paper ponders over a ‘coevolutionary’ approach to model building, shifting away from a borrowing to a co-creation culture, to develop a generation of models that leverage the unique strengths of ML such as scalability to big data and high-dimensional mapping, while remaining faithful to process-based knowledge base and principles of model explainability and interpretability, and therefore, falsifiability.

Saman Razavi↗

Measuring Thermal Characteristics of Urban Landscapes

The additional heating of the air over the city is the result of the replacement of naturally vegetated surfaces with those composed of asphalt, concrete, rooftops and other man-made materials. The temperatures of these artificial surfaces can be 20 to 40 C higher than vegetated surfaces. Materials such as asphalt store much of the sun's energy and remains hot long after sunset. This produces a dome of elevated air temperatures 5 to 8 C greater over the city, compared to the air temperatures over adjacent rural areas. This effect is called the "urban heat island". Urban landscapes are a complex mixture of vegetated and nonvegetated surfaces. It is difficult to take enough temperature measurements over a large city area to characterize the complexity of urban radiant surface temperature variability. However, the use of remotely sensed thermal data from airborne scanners are ideal for the task. In a study funded by NASA, a series of flights over Huntsville, Alabama were performed in September 1994 and over Atlanta, Georgia in May 1997. Analysis of thermal energy responses for specific or discrete surfaces typical of the urban landscape (e.g., asphalt, building rooftops, vegetation) requires measurements at a very fine spatial scale (i.e., <15 m) to adequately resolve these surfaces and their attendant thermal energy regimes. Additionally, very fine scale spatial resolution thermal infrared data, such as that obtained from aircraft, are very useful for demonstrating to planning officials, policy makers, and the general populace, what the benefits are of the urban forest in both mitigating the urban heat island effect, in making cities more aesthetically pleasing and more habitable environments, and in overall cooling of the community. In this presentation we will examine the techniques of analyzing remotely sensed data for measuring the effect of various urban surfaces on their contribution to the urban heat island effect.

Luvall, Jeffrey C.↗

The Lunar Lander "HabiTank" Concept

This paper will summarize the study that was conducted under the auspices of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), lead by Johnson Space Center s Engineering Directorate in support of the Lunar Lander Preparatory Study (LLPS) as sponsored by the Constellation Program Office (CxPO), Advanced Projects Office (APO). The lunar lander conceptual design and analysis is intended to provide an understanding of requirements for human space exploration of the Moon using the Advanced Projects Office Pre-Lander Project Office selected "HabiTank" Lander concept. In addition, these analyses help identify system "drivers," or significant sources of cost, performance, risk, and schedule variation along with areas needing technology development. Recommendations, results, and conclusions in this paper do not reflect NASA policy or programmatic decisions. This paper is an executive summary of this study.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗