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DOE OSTI2021

Addressing Parental Vaccine Hesitancy and Other Barriers to Childhood/Adolescent Vaccination Uptake During the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

Routine childhood immunizations are proven to be one of the most effective public health interventions at controlling numerous deadly diseases. Therefore, the CDC recommends routine immunizations for children and adolescent populations against vaccine-preventable diseases e.g., tetanus, pertussis, diphtheria, etc. This current review sought to examine barriers to pediatric vaccine uptake behaviors during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also explored the implications for parental vaccine hesitancy/delay during an ongoing health crisis and proposed recommendations for increasing vaccine confidence and compliance. Our review determined that the receipt for vaccinations steadily improved in the last decade for both the United States and Tennessee. However, this incremental progress has been forestalled by the COVID-19 pandemic and other barriers i.e. parental vaccine hesitancy, social determinants of health (SDoH) inequalities, etc. which further exacerbate vaccination disparities. Moreover, non-compliance to routine vaccinations could cause an outbreak of diseases, thereby, worsening the ongoing health crisis and already strained health care system. Healthcare providers are uniquely positioned to offer effective recommendations with presumptive languaging to increase vaccination rates, as well as, address parental vaccine hesitancy. Best practices that incorporate healthcare providers’ quality improvement coaching, vaccination reminder recall systems, adherence to standardized safety protocols (physical distancing, hand hygiene practices, etc.), as well as, offer telehealth and outdoor/drive-through/curbside vaccination services, etc. are warranted. Additionally, a concerted effort should be made to utilize public health surveillance systems to collect, analyze, and interpret data, thereby, ensuring the dissemination of timely, accurate health information for effective health policy decision-making e.g., vaccine distribution, etc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling

The Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling (ESM-BCVs) are defined as a list of 135 variables which have high utility for the evaluation and exploitation of climate simulations. The list reflects the most frequently used elements of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) archive. Successive phases of CMIP have supported strong results in science and substantially influence international climate policy formulation. This paper responds to both interest in exploiting CMIP data standards in a broader range of climate modelling activities and a need to achieve greater clarity about the significance and intention of variables in the CMIP Data Request. As Earth system modelling archives grow in scale and complexity, there are emerging problems associated with weak standardisation at the variable collection level. That is, there are good standards covering how specific variables should be archived, but this paper fills a gap in the standardisation of which variables should be archived. The ESM-BCV list is intended as a resource for ESM intercomparison projects (MIPs) developing requests to enable greater consistency among MIPs and as a reference for modelling centres to enhance consistency within MIPs. Provisional planning for the CMIP7 Data Request exploits the ESM-BCVs as a core element. The baseline variable list includes 98 variables which have modest or minor data volume footprints and could be generated systematically when simulations are produced and archived for exploitation by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) community. A further 35 variables are classed as “high volume” and are only suitable for production when the resource implications are justified.

Juckes, Martin [University of Oxford (United Kingd↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tierra del Fuego Case Study Capacity Expansion Analysis

This case study, developed by Net Zero World Initiative and the Government of Argentina, examines least-cost decarbonization pathways for Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, utilizing renewable energy, energy storage, hydrogen, and other decarbonization technologies. Being the second largest natural gas producing province in Argentina, Tierra del Fuego has historically relied on natural gas for their energy sector needs. As they look at possible decarbonization pathways, they face challenges due to extreme weather conditions, isolation from the mainland, and low population density. The study utilizes the Engage web application for capacity expansion modeling, addressing both business-as-usual (BAU) and accelerated decarbonization scenarios, with varying degrees of electrification and carbon emission constraints. Key findings reveal that an interconnection with the mainland, high contribution of wind energy development on Tierra del Fuego, energy storage, and hydrogen, coupled with energy-efficient electrification technologies (such as heat pumps and electric vehicles), emerge as the most cost-effective solutions to decarbonize, significantly reducing carbon emissions and total system energy costs. The study explores self-generation and interconnection alternatives, demonstrating the economic advantage of an interconnection of Tierra del Fuego with the mainland, as an alternative to 100% local generation. Sensitivity analyses on wind data sources and temporal resolutions, as well as projected natural gas prices, highlight the influence of external factors on the feasibility of decarbonization pathways. Challenges identified include the practicality of phasing out natural gas, economic uncertainty, cost implications of long-term storage technologies as wind energy increases, and geographical limitations for wind generation. The case study concludes that while substantial emissions reductions can be achieved by 2050, and be competitive with conventional pathways, achieving a full 100% decarbonization by 2050 would entail higher costs, particularly due to the significant reliance on storage solutions with higher contribution of wind energy. The analysis offers valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Argentina's energy sector, emphasizing the importance of strategic planning, investment in renewable energy and storage technologies, and careful consideration of local conditions in the transition towards Net Zero targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Task 12 Sustainability - Methodological Guidelines on Net Energy Analysis of Photovoltaic Electricity (2nd Edition)

Net Energy Analysis (NEA) is a structured, comprehensive method of quantifying the extent to which a given energy source is able to provide a net energy gain (i.e., an energy surplus) to the end user, after accounting for all the energy losses occurring along the chain of processes that are required to exploit it (i.e., for its extraction, processing and transformation into a usable energy carrier, and delivery to the end user), as well as for all the additional energy 'investments' that are required in order to carry out the same chain of processes. However, this general framework leaves the individual practitioner with a range of choices that can affect the results and thus, the conclusions of a NEA study. The current IEA PVPS guidelines were developed to provide guidance on assuring consistency, balance, and quality to enhance the credibility and reliability of the results from photovoltaic (PV) NEAs. The guidelines represent a consensus among the authors - PV NEA experts in North America and Europe - for assumptions made on PV performance, process inputs and outputs, methods of analysis, and reporting of the results. Guidance is given on photovoltaic-specific parameters used as inputs in NEA and on choices and assumptions in inventory data analysis and on implementation of modelling approaches. A consistent approach towards system modelling, the functional unit, the system boundaries and allocation aspects enhance the credibility of PV electricity NEA studies and enables balanced NEA-based comparisons. Specifically, "apples-to-oranges" comparisons of different energy carriers (e.g., fuels vs. electricity) are not methodologically sound and are to be avoided in all cases; also, any comparison across renewable and non-renewable electricity generation technologies must clearly point out the intrinsically short-term nature of the NEA viewpoint, which does not capture the long-term sustainability implications of renewable vs. non-renewable primary energy harvesting and use: non-renewable primary energy resources are depleted and finally exhausted (irrespective of the size of the EROI), while renewable primary energy resources are not. This document provides an in-depth discussion of a common metric of NEA, namely the energy return on investment (EROI), and how this is to be interpreted vis-a-vis the deceptively similar-sounding metrics in the field of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA): cumulative energy demand (CED) and non-renewable cumulative energy demand (nr-CED) per unit output. Specifically, a number of key differences are highlighted between these metrics as applied to electricity production systems, which are listed in Table S-1.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Consequence Based Framework for Deployment of Cloud Solutions in the Digital Energy Transition

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a framework for consequence-driven applied risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively, and responsibly deploy cloud applications. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 1. Introduction

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter introduces the study.

100% Renewable↗

DOE OSTI2024

Stress Testing California's Hydroclimatic Whiplash: Potential Challenges, Trade‐Offs and Adaptations in Water Management and Hydropower Generation

Abstract Inter‐annual precipitation in California is highly variable, and future projections indicate an increase in the intensity and frequency of hydroclimatic “whiplash.” Understanding the implications of these shocks on California's water system and its degree of resiliency is critical from a planning perspective. Therefore, we quantify the resilience of reservoir services provided by water and hydropower systems in four basins in the western Sierra Nevada. Using downscaled runoff from 10 climate model outputs, we generated 200 synthetic hydrologic whiplash sequences of alternating dry and wet years to represent a wide range of extremes and transitional conditions used as inputs to a water system simulation model. Sequences were derived from upper (wet) and lower (dry) quintiles of future streamflow projections (2030–2060). Results show that carryover storage was negatively affected in all basins, particularly in those with lower storage capacity. All basins experienced negative impacts on hydropower generation, with losses ranging from 5% to nearly 90%. Reservoir sizes and inflexible operating rules are a particular challenge for flood control, as in extremely wet years spillage averaged nearly the annual basins' total discharge. The reliability of environmental flows and agricultural deliveries varied depending on the basin, intensity, and duration of whiplash sequences. Overall, wet years temporarily rebound negative drought effects, and greater storage capacity results in higher reliability and resiliency, and lesser volatility in services. We highlight potential policy changes to improve flexibility, increase resilience, and better equip managers to face challenges posed by whiplash while meeting human and environmental needs.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

A framework for integrating supply chain, environmental, and social justice factors during early stationary battery research

The transition to a decarbonized economy will drive dramatically higher demand for energy storage, along with technological diversification. To avoid mistakes of the past, the supply chain implications and environmental and social justice (ESJ) impacts of new battery technologies should be considered early during technological development. We propose herein a systematic framework for analyzing these impacts for new stationary battery technologies and illustrate the framework with a case study. The goal is to promote future development of technologies with secure supply chains and favorable ESJ profiles to avoid expensive corrective actions after substantial resources have been invested. This framework should be a useful tool for public and private researchers and sponsors who want to ensure that supply chain and ESJ concerns are considered and integrated as part of decision making throughout the research and development process.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quantifying agricultural productive use of energy load in Sub-Saharan Africa and its impact on microgrid configurations and costs

The use of advanced energy technologies for agricultural purposes—such as irrigation, refrigeration, crop processing, and egg incubation—has the potential to increase crop yield, reduce vulnerability to changing precipitation patterns, increase shelf life, strengthen income and employment opportunities in rural areas, and reduce emissions by displacing fossil fuel-based technologies. These productive uses of energy (PUE) in remote areas could potentially be powered by microgrids that additionally serve otherwise unelectrified communities, most of which are located in rural Sub-Saharan Africa. Here, in this paper, we use high-resolution geospatial data to estimate the end-use electricity demand for a range of agricultural PUE across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we share these data in an open-access mapping tool. Next, we use REopt®, a techno-economic optimization model of energy systems, to determine the cost and system sizing implications of incorporating agricultural PUE into microgrid designs in Kenya and Zambia. We estimate the upper bound of agricultural PUE demand for irrigation, milling, shelling, refrigeration, and egg incubation across Sub-Saharan to be 16.8 TWh/yr. We find that incorporating local agricultural PUE into microgrid system designs increases the required system sizing while having minimal impact on the levelized cost of energy of these systems. Our analysis is the first to demonstrate the PUE potential in the agricultural sector at a 10x10-kilometer resolution across Sub-Saharan Africa and to show, at scale, how site-specific PUE can impact the cost and sizing of microgrids that are otherwise deployed to serve local household and community load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Modeling land use and land cover change: using a hindcast to estimate economic parameters in gcamland v2.0

Abstract. Future changes in land use and cover have important implications for agriculture, energy, water use, and climate. Estimates of future land use and land cover differ significantly across economic models as a result of differences in drivers, model structure, and model parameters; however, these models often rely on heuristics to determine model parameters. In this study, we demonstrate a more systematic and empirically based approach to estimating a few key parameters for an economic model of land use and land cover change, gcamland. Specifically, we generate a large set of model parameter perturbations for the selected parameters and run gcamland simulations with these parameter sets over the historical period in the United States to quantify land use and land cover, determine how well the model reproduces observations, and identify parameter combinations that best replicate observations, assuming other model parameters are fixed. We also test alternate methods for forming expectations about uncertain crop yields and prices, including adaptive, perfect, linear, and hybrid approaches. In particular, we estimate parameters for six parameters used in the formation of expectations and three of seven logit exponents for the USA only. We find that an adaptive expectation approach minimizes the error between simulated outputs and observations, with parameters that suggest that for most crops, landowners put a significant weight on previous information. Interestingly, for corn, where ethanol policies have led to a rapid growth in demand, the resulting parameters show that a larger weight is placed on more recent information. We examine the change in model parameters as the metric of model error changes, finding that the measure of model fitness affects the choice of parameter sets. Finally, we discuss how the methodology and results used in this study could be used for other regions or economic models to improve projections of future land use and land cover change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 11. Economic Impacts and Jobs

100% Renewable↗

DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m –2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O 3 on future crop yield is affected by CO 2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO 2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO 2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O 3 . However, the CO 2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O 3 in regions with high O 3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O 3 pollution on food security.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 2. Study Approach

100% Renewable↗

DOE OSTI2020

Spanning the Nexus: Integrated Energy Research on Agriculture & Water Challenges

This presentation will explore the land, food, water, and energy implications of changing energy systems. With an increase in solar development, there are potential conflicts between land use for solar and agricultural. Under the DOE’s InSPIRE project, researchers are gathering data and performing experiments for the co-location of solar development and the agricultural production of crops, pollinator habitat, and grazing. Initial findings from this project highlight mutual benefits for both farmers and the PV installation themselves, all while providing an avenue to reduce land use conflicts. Also, in this presentation, the intersection of water and energy systems will be explored. Energy production requires water and water treatment and transport requires energy. This presentation will highlight past work examining oil and gas water use and detail upcoming water treatment research within the National Water Alliance for Innovation (NAWI).

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2024

Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Offline Tool: A Tool for Guiding Researchers in Addressing Energy Justice Considerations in Early-Stage Research

The Justice Underpinning Science and Technology Research (JUST-R) Metrics Framework is a set of metrics for assessing the energy justice implications of technologies that are currently under research and development (R&D). The JUST-R Metrics Framework guides researchers through an analysis of the many facets of their research processes, from material inputs to knowledge sources, that may contribute to energy injustice both during the research period and when the technology is scaled. This JUST-R Offline Tool consists of an Excel file and PDF guide to aid researchers, engineers, and project managers in their application of the JUST-R Metrics Framework. This tool enables researchers to 1) evaluate the baseline energy justice implications of their research; 2) develop justice-oriented changes to the research process; and 3) track the implementation of proposed changes. The metrics included in the framework are sorted into five aspects of research: Team Dynamics, Sources & Inputs, Processes & Protocols, Waste & Hazards, and Results & Dissemination. The JUST-R Tool can be found here: https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/just-r.html.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Limited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets

Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international energy markets, and the regulatory environment. We use an integrated human-Earth system model, GCAM, to explore the effects of spatial–temporal patterns of sea-ice loss under climate change on future Arctic offshore oil and gas extraction, considering interactions with global energy markets and emission reduction scenarios. We find that under SSP5, a “fossil-fueled development” scenario, the effects of sea-ice loss are larger for Arctic offshore oil production than gas. Under SSP5, future extraction of Arctic offshore oil and gas through 2100 adds roughly 0.8–2.6 EJ/year to oil and gas markets but does not have large impacts on global oil and gas markets. Surprisingly, a low-carbon scenario results in greater Arctic offshore oil production to offset the more emissions-intensive unconventional oil production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving commercial truck fleet composition in emission modeling using 2021 US VIUS data

Commercial trucks are essential elements of the nation's supply chain system. Meanwhile, intensive truck movements contribute significantly to system externalities, such as energy use and air pollution. However, collecting detailed fleet composition and distribution of operational patterns remains a barrier to accurately accounting for these impacts. The recently released 2021 US Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (US VIUS) fills a critical gap in understanding commercial truck fleet distributions, their operations, and business constraints at the national scale. This study aims to understand the latest US commercial vehicle fleet composition and operational characteristics using 2021 US VIUS data and calibrate the fleet inputs in regulatory emission models to assess the potential emission implications of the VIUS-derived fleet composition. The emission rates for commercial trucks and default fleet composition are collected from the U.S. EPA's MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES4). The 2021 US VIUS data is applied to improve fleet characteristics such as the long-haul fraction and the vehicle mileage accumulation rate. The study also investigates potential emission reduction benefits under various forecasted fleet electrification scenarios. The energy consumption and critical air pollutant rates by vehicle types are compared between MOVES4 and US VIUS fleets for both current and future scenarios to provide insights into the latest U.S. commercial vehicle fleet characteristics and their implications on energy and emissions. This study helps policymakers and practitioners advance the commercial fleet generation for emission models. It also deepens the understanding of the emission reduction potential of the commercial fleet under various fleet projections.

2021 US VIUS↗