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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Deep Learning for Ensemble Forecasting

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components and the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising a hierarchy of models. Science Challenge: While both climate and weather forecast systems have continued to improve due to substantial efforts to improve computational capabilities, observations, and numerical models, the atmosphere is a chaotic system, and this puts a fundamental limit on our ability to make predictions. Forecasts made by high-resolution models initialized with only slightly different atmospheric states can quickly diverge. Quantifying uncertainty in forecasts is essential to adequately understand them and to make the best-informed policy decisions particularly when it comes to hydrology, extreme weather (including extreme precipitation events), and climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1985

Space-flight simulations of calcium metabolism using a mathematical model of calcium regulation

The results of a series of simulation studies of calcium matabolic changes which have been recorded during human exposure to bed rest and space flight are presented. Space flight and bed rest data demonstrate losses of total body calcium during exposure to hypogravic environments. These losses are evidenced by higher than normal rates of urine calcium excretion and by negative calcium balances. In addition, intestinal absorption rates and bone mineral content are assumed to decrease. The bed rest and space flight simulations were executed on a mathematical model of the calcium metabolic system. The purpose of the simulations is to theoretically test hypotheses and predict system responses which are occurring during given experimental stresses. In this case, hypogravity occurs through the comparison of simulation and experimental data and through the analysis of model structure and system responses. The model reliably simulates the responses of selected bed rest and space flight parameters. When experimental data are available, the simulated skeletal responses and regulatory factors involved in the responses agree with space flight data collected on rodents. In addition, areas within the model that need improvement are identified.

Brand, S. N.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Preliminary design of an advanced Stirling system for terrestrial solar energy conversion

A preliminary design was generated for an advanced Stirling conversion system (ASCS) that will be capable of delivering about 25 kW of electric power to an electric utility grid. Stirling engines are being evaluated for terrestrial solar applications. A two-year task to complete detailed design, fabrication, assembly and testing of an ASCS prototype began in April, 1990. The ASCS is designed to deliver maximum power per year over a range of solar inputs with a design life of 30 years (60,000 h). The ACSC has a long-term cost goal of about $450 per kilowatt, exclusive of the 11-m parabolic dish concentrator. The proposed system includes a Stirling engine with high-pressure hydraulic output, coupled with a bent axis variable displacement hydraulic motor and a rotary induction generator. The major thrusts of the preliminary design are described, including material selection for the hot-end components, heat transport system (reflux pool boiler) design, system thermal response, improved manufacturability, FMECA/FTA analysis, updated manufacturing cost estimate, and predicted system performance.

White, M. A.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental test of model predictive control in a variable air volume system

Model predictive control (MPC) has been widely studied as a promising approach for improving energy efficiency and operational flexibility in buildings, yet its real-world performance for commercial variable air volume (VAV) systems remains insufficiently characterized. In particular, the impacts of model mismatch on control robustness, real-time computational burden, and device-level operation are rarely evaluated using long-term field data. Here, this study presents a comprehensive experimental evaluation of MPC applied to a full-scale VAV system in Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Flexible Research Platform-2 building with constant cooling/heating temperature setpoints and no occupancy. The study offers three key advantages over existing work: (1) it uses a representative building in a full-scale experimental test, capturing realistic system dynamics and complexity; (2) it evaluates a relatively sophisticated MPC formulation using two different optimization solvers (Gurobi and PSO), fully accounting for computational complexity and methodological diversity; and (3) it systematically assesses potential negative impacts on various building devices, benchmark against a well-established baseline, ASHRAE Guideline 36 (G36). To isolate zone- and air-handling-unit–level supervisory control effects, the supply fan was operated with a fixed static pressure setpoint under all strategies, and the trim-and-response static pressure reset in G36 was not enabled. Results show that MPC maintained thermal comfort while improving energy efficiency. Abrupt solar radiation variations degraded performance. Computation times ranged from ∼1 s (Gurobi) to ∼ 70 s (PSO). Compared with G36, MPC achieves 33% energy savings and reduces median reheat coil output by approximately a factor of 5–10 for a representative cooling day under matched weather conditions. However, it increases the maximum discomfort deviation from 0.5 to 1°C and results in a 32% increase in staging frequency. In addition, PSO-based MPC introduced damper oscillations, also affecting actuator longevity.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗
NASA NTRS1987

A computer program for model verification of dynamic systems

Dynamic model verification is the process whereby an analytical model of a dynamic system is compared with experimental data, and then qualified for future use in predicting system response in a different dynamic environment. There are various ways to conduct model verification. The approach adopted in MOVER II employs Bayesian statistical parameter estimation. Unlike curve fitting whose objective is to minimize the difference between some analytical function and a given quantity of test data (or curve), Bayesian estimation attempts also to minimize the difference between the parameter values of that function (the model) and their initial estimates, in a least squares sense. The objectives of dynamic model verification, therefore, are to produce a model which: (1) is in agreement with test data, (2) will assist in the interpretation of test data, (3) can be used to help verify a design, (4) will reliably predict performance, and (5) in the case of space structures, facilitate dynamic control.

Chrostowski, J. D.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Handling Input and Output for COAMPS

Two suites of software have been developed to handle the input and output of the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Prediction System (COAMPS), which is a regional atmospheric model developed by the Navy for simulating and predicting weather. Typically, the initial and boundary conditions for COAMPS are provided by a flat-file representation of the Navy s global model. Additional algorithms are needed for running the COAMPS software using global models. One of the present suites satisfies this need for running COAMPS using the Global Forecast System (GFS) model of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The first step in running COAMPS downloading of GFS data from an Internet file-transfer-protocol (FTP) server computer of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is performed by one of the programs (SSC-00273) in this suite. The GFS data, which are in gridded binary (GRIB) format, are then changed to a COAMPS-compatible format by another program in the suite (SSC-00278). Once a forecast is complete, still another program in the suite (SSC-00274) sends the output data to a different server computer. The second suite of software (SSC- 00275) addresses the need to ingest up-to-date land-use-and-land-cover (LULC) data into COAMPS for use in specifying typical climatological values of such surface parameters as albedo, aerodynamic roughness, and ground wetness. This suite includes (1) a program to process LULC data derived from observations by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Terra and Aqua satellites, (2) programs to derive new climatological parameters for the 17-land-use-category MODIS data; and (3) a modified version of a FORTRAN subroutine to be used by COAMPS. The MODIS data files are processed to reformat them into a compressed American Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) format used by COAMPS for efficient processing.

Fitzpatrick, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep Sigma Point Processes-Assisted Chance-Constrained Power System Transient Stability Preventive Control

Here this paper proposes a deep sigma point processes (DSPP)-assisted chance-constrained power system transient stability preventive control method to deal with uncertain renewable energy and loads-induced stability risk. The traditional transient stability-constrained preventive control is reformulated as a chance-constrained optimization problem. To deal with the computational bottleneck of the time-domain simulation-based probabilistic transient stability assessment, the DSPP is developed. DSPP is a parametric Bayesian approach that allows us to predict system transient stability with high computational efficiency while accurately quantifying the confidence intervals of the predictions that can be used to inform system instability risk. To this end, with a given preset confidence probability, we embed DSPP into the primal dual interior point method to help solve the chance-constrained preventive control problem, where the corresponding Jacobian and Hessian matrices are derived. Comparison results with other existing methods show that the proposed method can significantly speed up preventive control while maintaining high accuracy and convergence

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1994

VAPEPS Management Center

A VibroAcoustic Payload Environment Prediction System (VAPEPS) Management Center is established and being maintained at JPL. VAPEPS is a computer program that utilizes statistical energy analysis (SEA) theory and SEA extrapolation methods to predict the vibroacoustic environments of complex systems. The program is commonly utilized to establish random vibration and acoustic test requirements for aerospace components exposed to launch environments. It can also be used in the payload or launch vehicle design process for control or mitigation of the launch or on-orbit vibration and acoustic environments, as well as to calculate acoustically induced stresses in structures such as solar panels and reflectors.

VAPEPS↗
NASA NTRS1978

Thermal performance of shaft bearing system

Computer program calculates loads, torques, temperature, and fatigue life of multibearing shaft system operating with either wet or dry friction. Program is also capable of predicting system reactive to termination of lubricant supply to bearings and other lubricated mechanical elements.

Crecelius, W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bridging Multiscale Processes in Earth System Models with Physics-Guided Hierarchical Machine Learning

Focal Area(s): The focal area of this whitepaper is, “Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection).” The ideas and frameworks described herein are deemed site agnostic. As a use case, this group will initially focus on the coupling between land processes, surface/subsurface hydrological processes, coastal processes, and human activities in the U.S. Gulf states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Interbasin Interaction as Effective Predictors of Late-Spring Precipitation Variability in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract The southern Great Plains experience fluctuating precipitation extremes that significantly impact agriculture and water management. Despite ongoing efforts to enhance forecast accuracy, the underlying causes of these climatic phenomena remain inadequately understood. This study elucidates the relative influence of the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins on April–May–June precipitation variability in this region. Our partial ocean assimilation experiments using the Community Earth System Model unveil the prominent role of interbasin interaction, with the Pacific and Atlantic contributing approximately 70% and 30%, respectively, to these interbasin contrasts. Our statistical analyses suggest that these tropical interbasin contrasts could serve as a more reliable indicator for late-spring precipitation anomalies than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The conclusions are reinforced by analyses of seven climate forecasting systems within the North American Multi-Model Ensemble, offering an optimistic outlook for enhancing real-time forecasting of late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. However, the current predictive skills of the interbasin contrasts across the prediction systems are hindered by the lower predictability of the tropical Atlantic Ocean, pointing to the need for future research to refine climate prediction models further. Significance Statement Agriculture and infrastructure in the southern plains face challenges from severe late-spring precipitation extremes. Traditional predictors like El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) lose effectiveness during the critical spring-to-summer transition, creating a forecasting gap. This study introduces the concept of tropical interbasin interactions, known to enhance seasonal predictability for late-spring precipitation in the southern plains. Novel climate model experiments highlight contributions from the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, offering a promising predictability that potentially surpasses the limitations of ENSO-based predictions. These outcomes hold the potential for developing operational forecasts of late-spring precipitation anomalies in the southern plains, enabling proactive risk management.

Chikamoto, Yoshimitsu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing alphafold-multimer-based protein complex structure prediction with MULTICOM in CASP15

To enhance the AlphaFold-Multimer-based protein complex structure prediction, we developed a quaternary structure prediction system (MULTICOM) to improve the input fed to AlphaFold-Multimer and evaluate and refine its outputs. MULTICOM samples diverse multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) and templates for AlphaFold-Multimer to generate structural predictions by using both traditional sequence alignments and Foldseek-based structure alignments, ranks structural predictions through multiple complementary metrics, and refines the structural predictions via a Foldseek structure alignment-based refinement method. The MULTICOM system with different implementations was blindly tested in the assembly structure prediction in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 as both server and human predictors. MULTICOM_qa ranked 3 rd among 26 CASP15 server predictors and MULTICOM_human ranked 7 th among 87 CASP15 server and human predictors. The average TM-score of the first predictions submitted by MULTICOM_qa for CASP15 assembly targets is ~0.76, 5.3% higher than ~0.72 of the standard AlphaFold-Multimer. The average TM-score of the best of top 5 predictions submitted by MULTICOM_qa is ~0.80, about 8% higher than ~0.74 of the standard AlphaFold-Multimer. Moreover, the Foldseek Structure Alignment-based Multimer structure Generation (FSAMG) method outperforms the widely used sequence alignment-based multimer structure generation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Applications products of aviation forecast models

A service called the Optimum Path Aircraft Routing System (OPARS) supplies products based on output data from the Naval Oceanographic Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS), a model run on a Cyber-205 computer. Temperatures and winds are extracted from the surface to 100 mb, approximately 55,000 ft. Forecast winds are available in six-hour time steps.

Garthner, John P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Simulation Of Combat With An Expert System

Proposed expert system predicts outcomes of combat situations. Called "COBRA", combat outcome based on rules for attrition, system selects rules for mathematical modeling of losses and discrete events in combat according to previous experiences. Used with another software module known as the "Game". Game/COBRA software system, consisting of Game and COBRA modules, provides for both quantitative aspects and qualitative aspects in simulations of battles. COBRA intended for simulation of large-scale military exercises, concepts embodied in it have much broader applicability. In industrial research, knowledge-based system enables qualitative as well as quantitative simulations.

Provenzano, J. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Neighborhood. XXV. Discovery of New Proper Motion Stars with 0.40 sec/yr > mu > or = 0.18 sec/yr Between Declinations -47 deg and 00 deg

We present 2817 new southern proper motion systems with 0.40 sec/yr > mu > or = 0.18 sec/yr and declination between 47 deg and 00 deg. This is a continuation of the SuperCOSMOS-RECONS (SCR) proper motion searches of the southern sky. We use the same photometric relations as previous searches to provide distance estimates based on the assumption that the objects are single main-sequence stars. We find 79 new red dwarf systems predicted to be within 25 pc, including a few new components of previously known systems. Two systems--SCR 1731-2452 at 9.5 pc and SCR 1746-3214 at 9.9 pc--are anticipated to be within 10 pc. We also find 23 new white dwarf (WD) candidates with distance estimates of 15-66 pc, as well as 360 new red subdwarf candidates. With this search, we complete the SCR sweep of the southern sky for stars with mu > or = 0.18 sec/yr and R(sub 59F) < or = 16.5, resulting in a total of 5042 objects in 4724 previously unreported proper motion systems. Here we provide selected comprehensive lists from our SCR proper motion search to date, including 152 red dwarf systems estimated to be within 25 pc (9 within 10 pc), 46 WDs (10 within 25 pc), and 598 subdwarf candidates. The results of this search suggest that there are more nearby systems to be found at fainter magnitudes and lower proper motion limits than those probed so far.

LOW MASS STARS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning Provides Substantial Improvements to County‐Level Fire Weather Forecasting Over the Western United States

Abstract The recent wildfires in the western United States during 2018 and 2020 caused record‐breaking fire damage and casualties. Despite remarkable advances in fire modeling and weather forecasting, it remains challenging to anticipate catastrophic wildfire events and associated damage. One key missing component is a fire weather prediction system with sufficiently long lead time capable of providing useful regional details. Here, we develop a hybrid prediction model of wildfire danger called CFS with super resolution (CFS‐SR) as a proof of concept to fill that void. The CFS‐SR model is constructed by integrating the Climate Forecast System version 2 with a deep learning (DL) technique from Single Image Super Resolution, a method widely used in enhancing image resolution. We show that for the 2018–2019 fire season, the CFS‐SR model significantly improves accuracy in forecasting fire weather at lead times of up to 7 days with an enhanced spatial resolution up to 4 km. This level of high resolution provides county‐level fire weather forecast, making it more practical for allocating resources to mitigate wildfire danger. Our study demonstrates that a proper combination of ensemble climate predictions with DL techniques can boost predictability at finer spatial scales, increasing the utility of fire weather forecasts for practical applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Aircraft Landing Times using Mediated Predictions from Existing Systems

We developed a novel approach for predicting the landing time of airborne flights in real-time operations. The first step predicts a landing time by using mediation rules to select from among physics-based predictions (relying on the expected flight trajectory) already available in real time in the Federal Aviation Administration System Wide Information Management system data feeds. The second step uses a machine learning model built upon the mediated predictions. The model is trained to predict the error in the mediated prediction, using features describing the current state of an airborne flight. These features are calculated in real time from a relatively small number of data elements that are readily available for airborne flights. Initial results based on five months of data at six large airports demonstrate that incorporating a machine learning model on top of the mediated physics-based prediction can lead to substantial additional improvements in prediction quality.

Machine learning↗