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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Assisted Probability of Detection for NASA Space Missions

Model assisted probability of detection (MAPOD) uses data from simulations to improve a traditional probability of detection (POD) study. This could include extending the parameter space to reduce uncertainty or substituting experimental data with simulated data to reduce the time and cost of a POD study. In the past MAPOD was difficult due to limited computational resources, but recent innovations in simulation tools and high-performance computing have made this type of high-degree-of-freedom modelling possible, and complex structures have made it necessary. This presentation will summarize the work done by the computational nondestructive evaluation (CNDE) group at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) to complete a MAPOD study for phased array ultrasound testing (PAUT) of a friction stir welding (FSW) method to be used on Space Launch System (SLS) structures. The three critical needs for a MAPOD study are a validated and verified model of the inspection technique for the structure being inspected, some experimental POD data, and an uncertainty model for both the model and the experimental data. PAUT was simulated using Extende CIVA’s UT module. The model was validated using laboratory inspection data from NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) for a Hit/Miss POD for FSW in 2219-T87 aluminum panels representative of those used in the SLS. This model was then used to simulate flaw sizes that were originally omitted from the original POD study. The results of this new MAPOD study will be presented along with a discussion of the methods and processes used to analyze the original data, selected simulation parameters, and development of the uncertainty model used for the statistical analysis. The goal of this effort is not just to improve the POD study but to demonstrate the value of MAPOD and provide a roadmap for application of MAPOD on future projects.

Elizabeth Gregory↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Eddy Current Case Study using NASA’s Transfer Function and Limited-Sample Probability of Detection Guidebooks

Probability of detection (POD) requirements for NASA fracture-critical human-rated systems can be met by (1) claiming ‘similarity’ to NASA Standard Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) flaw sizes or (2) by inspector-specific POD demonstration, known as NASA Special NDE. Standard NDE flaw sizes are intended to represent the detection capability of most qualified inspectors, and were primarily based on POD studies in the development of the Space Shuttle Program Orbiter fracture control plan. However, these Standard NDE flaw sizes were based on fatigue cracks in flat panels of one material alloy over a limited range of panel thicknesses. While the POD study was comprehensive, the inspection conditions are relatively narrow. An evaluation of similarity between the Standard NDE POD study and flight component conditions is required to apply Standard NDE to specific flight component inspections. A similarity evaluation may include differences in materials, surface finish, component geometry (e.g., curvature, corners, welds), and inspection access. Similarity is typically based on a qualitative engineering evaluation. Recently, NASA published a quantitative methodology to assess similarity. If similarity is not supported by test and analysis, then the methodology provides a transfer function of flaw size for Special NDE POD demonstration. NASA recommends that Special POD demonstrations use flaws that are flight-like or more difficult to detect than flight component flaws, which are commonly induced fatigue cracks. Often, it is not feasible to induce fatigue cracks in flight component geometry, and therefore, a simpler representative geometry is used, commonly a flat panel, for POD demonstration. Inducing cracks in simple geometry specimens can be time-consuming and expensive, and thus, minimizing the number of flawed specimens is desired. Traditionally, NASA Special NDE demonstration was limited to MIL-HDBK-1823A methods or the binomial point-estimate method (PEM), commonly known as 29/29. Recently, NASA published a limited-sample POD (LS-POD) methodology for signal-response NDE techniques (e.g., eddy current) that provides POD demonstration with fewer specimens than previous approaches. LS-POD suggests a minimum of 10 flawed specimens, compared to 29 in the PEM and the suggested minimum of 40 from MIL-HDBK-1823A. The methodology also includes new guidance on evaluating the probability of false calls. In this presentation, these new transfer function and LS-POD methodologies are described and illustrated through an eddy current detection capability of far-side flaws on thin welded panels. A geometry-based transfer function is developed using electro-discharge machined (EDM) notches in flight component and simple geometry to estimate the Special NDE flaw size that is representative of the critical initial flaw size required by the fracture analysis. Then, fatigue cracks are induced in simple flat panels of the transferred flaw size, and the LS-POD methodology is used for Special NDE demonstration.

P. A. Parker↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Metrics on Predictive Probability of Collision Assessments Reliant on Object State Updates

The probability of collision (Pc) metric is the dominant method of risk charac-terization for evaluating satellite close approaches, and has become of particular interest following major debris production incidents. However, confidence in the use of Pc for actionability has been questioned due in part due to its non-intuitive and often significant corrections following messaging updates. This paper assesses predictively computed probabilities and confidence bounds on Pc values corresponding to orbit determination updates by comparing these predic-tive values to observed operational values. This paper also presents use cases for this methodology in assessing event actionability.

conjunction assessment↗
NASA NTRS2021

Guidebook for Limited Sample Probability of Detection (LS-POD) Demonstration for Signal-Response Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) Methods

This document provides guidance for performing limited sample probability of detection (LS-POD) demonstration testing with smaller numbers of flawed specimens than the 29 required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B. This document is specifically applicable to NASA programs and projects where NASA Special NDE methods are used to inspect fracture critical human spaceflight metallic hardware when the minimum number of flawed specimens required for the Point Estimate POD method referenced in NASA Standard 5009B (2019) are not available.

Limited Sample Probability of Detection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Re-evaluating probable maximum precipitation estimates: sensitivity to transposition domains and storm rotation using modern datasets

This study examines the sensitivity of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimates to key methodological decisions embedded in the legacy approach adopted in the U.S. National Weather Service Hydrometeorological Reports No. 51 and No. 52. Although widely used for infrastructure design and risk regulation, fundamental aspects of PMP estimation—such as storm sample size, transposition domain, maximization procedures, and storm rotation—remain poorly constrained and lack formal guidance. Using the Red Rock watershed in Iowa as a case study, and leveraging the 2002–2023 NOAA Analysis of Record for Calibration (AORC) precipitation dataset, we systematically evaluate how each methodological choice, individually and in combination, influences PMP estimates. Our findings demonstrate that PMP is not a fixed physical upper bound but rather a modeling construct shaped heavily by user-defined assumptions. Notably, PMP values derived from modern gridded rainfall datasets can be substantially higher than the legacy estimate used in the original spillway design for Red Rock Dam. Decisions regarding storm sample size, domain extent, climatological window, and particularly storm rotation all contributed to higher PMP estimates. Storm rotation alone—a loosely constrained element in the current PMP practice—can amplify PMP by more than 25%. These results reveal the lack of standardized bounds in current PMP workflows and the need for systematic sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. As PMP estimation shifts toward probabilistic approaches, incorporating physically meaningful storm attributes will be key to developing more transparent, defensible methods for dam safety and climate-resilient infrastructure.

Probable maximum precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Probability Density Function Control of Frequency Fluctuations in Renewable-Rich Power Systems

The stochastic nature of renewable energy sources (RESs) necessitates treating power system frequency response as a random process with a nonstationary probability density function (PDF). Here, based upon the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author, this paper proposes a novel stochastic controller to improve the frequency PDF in power grids when integrating a large amount of RESs, thereby minimizing the effects of uncertainties and enhancing overall system stability. The key idea is to manipulate the controllable power generation resources so that the frequency PDF is make to follow a target PDF by using the stochastic distribution control theory originated by the second author. The proposed method can easily be plugged into existing automatic generation controls for multi-area transmission grids. The proposed method is validated via a modified Kundar's two area system and 240-bus Western Electricity Coordinating Council systems. The simulation results show that the proposed control shapes the frequency PDF narrower and sharper, leading to a notable improvement toward minimizing the effects of randomness and uncertainty during grid operation.

frequency↗