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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

COFS 2: 3-D dynamics and controls technology

The Control of Flexible Structures (COFS) 2 project is a complex and ambitious undertaking which will address several critical technology areas. Among them are modeling, structural dynamics, controls, and ground testing issues which are not only germane to this effort, but to other large space structure programs being contemplated. This effort requires the early integration of controls and structural dynamics considerations in order to achieve mission success. Several technology advances must be achieved in the areas of system modelling, control synthesis and methodology, sensor/actuator development, and ground testing techniques for system evaluation and on-orbit performance prediction and verification. This project offers a unique opportunity for the integration of several disciplines to produce technology advances which will benefit many future programs. In addition, the opportunities available to participate in the various levels in the phase of this project, e.g., analytical development and modelling, ground testing, and flight testing, permit for the involvement of a significant number of interested researchers and organizations from government, universities and industry.

Pyle, Jon S.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Heavy-Duty Diesel Power System for Off-Road Applications - Concept Definition

A multi-year Power System R&D project was initiated with the objective of developing an off-road hybrid heavy-duty concept diesel engine with front end accessory drive-integrated energy storage. This off-road hybrid engine system is expected to deliver 15-20% reduction in fuel consumption over current Tier 4 Final-based diesel engines and consists of a downsized heavy-duty diesel engine containing advanced combustion technologies, capable of elevated peak cylinder pressures and thermal efficiencies, exhaust waste heat recovery via SuperTurbo™ turbocompounding, and hybrid energy recovery through both mechanical (high speed flywheel) and electrical systems. The first year of this project focused on the definition of the hybrid elements using extensive dynamic system simulation over transient work cycles, with hybrid supervisory controls development focusing on energy recovery and transient load assist, in Caterpillar’s DYNASTY™ software environment. Three key off-road applications were the focus of the hybrid concept definition with an aim of understanding the system’s modular capability for the diverse off-road heavy-duty market. Core engine performance 1D and 3D simulations isolated the efficiency contributions from the downsized engine, turbocompounding, and in-cylinder thermal barrier coatings. A fuel consumption improvement range of 14 to 24% was predicted, resulting in successful project progression to the design and experimental validation phase. Furthermore, an overview of the experimental engine and hybrid system status concludes the discussion along with the multi-year project’s next steps.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS2021

Argentina Food Security & Agriculture: Crop Monitoring and Forecasting for Argentina using NASA Satellite Observations

Early harvest information helps guide agricultural commodity assessments in Argentina, providing valuable planning information to identify potentially food-insecure regions, anticipate transportation and storage demands, predict price fluctuations, and project commodity trends. However, crop yield estimates are currently subjective, based on interviews with qualified informants (i.e., farmers, agribusiness actors). In partnership with the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, we leveraged Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), and Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM IMERG) NASA Earth observations to develop a Google Earth Engine (GEE) toolset to monitor vegetation growth. The first component of the toolset produces spatial and temporal maps of temperature, precipitation, soil moisture, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), allowing users to visualize the influence of the region’s climate and weather. Next, we developed an autoregressive model to predict NDVI several months in advance. Lastly, we created a linear regression model of crop yield and NDVI for soybeans, corn, and wheat, and input the forecasted NDVI to generate a predicted crop yield output. The NDVI forecasting model produced accurate predictions at two, four, and six months when examining the most recent growing season. In the crop yield model, soybeans exhibited moderately strong correlation, wheat had consistent weak correlation, and corn varied from weak to strong correlation depending on zone. This information is vital for vegetation growth monitoring by identifying areas of high growth and allocating resources to areas of lower growth to efficiently maximize crop yields.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗
NASA NTRS2016

Monitoring Intense Thunderstorms in the Hindu-Kush Himalayan Region

Some of the most intense thunderstorms on the planet routinely occur in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya region(HKH) region where many government organizations lack the capacity needed to predict, observe and effectively respond to the threats and hazards associated with high impact convective weather. This project combines innovative numerical weather prediction, satellite-based precipitation and land imagery techniques into a high impact weather assessment toolkit (HIWAT) that will build the capabilities of national meteorological departments and other weather sensitive agencies in the HKH region to assess the potential threats and impacts of high impact convective weather.

Himalayas↗
NASA NTRS2018

Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) Phase 1 Concept of Use (ConUse)

This document presents an operational Concept of Use (ConUse) for the Phase 1 Baseline Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) prototype system of NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) sub-project, which began demonstration in 2017 at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (CLT). NASA is developing the IADS system under the ATD-2 sub-project in coordination with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and aviation industry partners. The primary goal of ATD-2 sub-project is to improve the predictability and the operational efficiency of the air traffic system in metroplex environments, through the enhancement, development, and integration of the nation's most advanced and sophisticated arrival, departure, and surface prediction, scheduling, and management systems. The ATD-2 effort is a five-year research activity through 2020. The initial phase of the ATD-2 sub-project, which is the focus of this document, will demonstrate the Phase 1 Baseline IADS capability at CLT in 2017. The Phase 1 Baseline IADS capabilities of the ATD-2 sub-project consists of: (a) Strategic and tactical surface scheduling to improve efficiency and predictability of airport surface operations, (b) Tactical departure scheduling to enhance merging of departures into overhead traffic streams via accurate predictions of takeoff times and automated coordination between the Airport Traffic Control Tower (ATCT, or Tower) and the Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC, or Center), (c) Improvements in departure surface demand predictions in Time Based Flow Management (TBFM), (d) A prototype Electronic Flight Data (EFD) system provided by the FAA via the Terminal Flight Data Manager (TFDM) early implementation effort, and (e) Improved situational awareness and demand predictions through integration with the Traffic Flow Management System (TFMS), TBFM, and TFDM (3Ts) for electronic data integration and exchange, and an on-screen dashboard displaying pertinent analytics in real-time. The surface scheduling and metering element of the capability is consistent with the Surface CDM Concept of Operations published in 2014 by the FAA Surface Operations Directorate.1 Upon successful demonstration of the Phase 1 Baseline IADS capability, follow-on demonstrations of the matured IADS traffic management capabilities will be conducted in the 2018-2020 timeframe. At the end of each phase of the demonstrations, NASA will transfer the ATD-2 sub-project technology to the FAA and industry partners.

integrated arrival↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Climate Information and Lessons Learned from the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX), Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (NASA SPoRT), and the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES)

Climate resilience can emerge from a combination of (1) climate projections that enable future-oriented planning and (2) contemporary observations that can be used for adaptation in the face of realized climate. NASA is uniquely positioned to provide global climate projections and satellite-based observations to users who must take a global perspective on climate risk (e.g., supply chain managers). Here, we will share the capabilities and experiences of three NASA projects. The first project, the NASA Earth eXchange (NEX) provides two downscaled climate projections, NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, a global 25 km resolution product, and NEX-DCP30-CMIP6, an 800 m resolution product covering the coterminous U.S. specifically designed for U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). NEX also offers land surface products that mirror the twice-daily products provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) but are derived from operational geostationary weather satellite data collected at 5-10 minutes intervals. The second project, the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT), was established in 2002 to transition unique NASA satellite products and capabilities to stakeholders to improve decision-making that benefits society. SPoRT provides products and capabilities derived from NASA observations and models to end users in government, academia, and the private sector. SPoRT translates NASA Earth science into actionable solutions reaching over 400 stakeholders across 80 organizations. Finally, the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES) is designed to facilitate regional-scale evaluations of climate models by providing standardized access to a vast and comprehensive set of observations, such as satellite, in-situ, and reanalyses, and modeling resources such as CMIP & CORDEX. These three projects form part of the core capabilities at the NASA Centers deliver climate information under the new NASA Earth Science to Action (ES2A) strategy.

NEX↗
DOE OSTI2020

Human-induced changes to the global ocean water masses and their time of emergence

The World Ocean is rapidly changing, with global and regional modification of temperature and salinity, resulting in widespread and irreversible impacts. While the most pronounced observed temperature and salinity changes are located in the upper ocean, changes in water masses at depth have been identified and will probably strengthen in the future. In this study, using 11 climate models, we define when anthropogenic temperature and salinity changes are expected to emerge from natural variability in the ocean interior along density surfaces. The models predict that in 2020, 20–55% of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian basins have an emergent anthropogenic signal; reaching 40–65% in 2050 and 55–80% in 2080. The well-ventilated Southern Ocean water masses emerge very rapidly, as early as the 1980–1990s, while the Northern Hemisphere water masses emerge in the 2010–2030s. Our results highlight the importance of maintaining and augmenting an ocean observing system capable of detecting and monitoring persistent anthropogenic changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Initialized Earth system prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales

Initialized Earth system predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations, and running it forward in time for up to ten years. Skillful predictions at time slices from subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), seasonal to interannual (S2I) and seasonal to decadal (S2D) offer information useful for various stakeholders, from agriculture to water resource management, and human and infrastructure safety. In this Review, we examine the processes influencing predictability, and discuss estimates of skill across S2S, S2I and S2D timescales. There are encouraging signs that skillful predictions can be made: at S2S timescales, there has been some skill in predicting the Madden-Julian Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation; at S2I in predicting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation; and at S2D, in predicting variability in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. However, challenges remain, and future work must prioritise reducing model error, more effectively communicating forecasts to users, and increasing process and mechanistic understanding that could increase predictive skill and, in turn, confidence. As numerical models progress towards Earth system models, initialized predictions are expanding to include prediction of sea-ice, air pollution, terrestrial and ocean biochemistry which can bring clear benefit to society and various stakeholders.

climate prediction↗
DOE OSTI2021

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows

This report details recent progress for the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows”. We refer to the project as IPPD/2, reflecting the 2017 renewal under expanded scope and partners In IPPD/2, we increased our research scope to include data motion. We are focusing on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. This new work on data motion will augment and complement IPPD/2’s research that focused on the computational aspects of tasks. We leverage and extend our existing tools and demonstrate our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II. The highlights of our work are as follows: Provenance for Workflows: Provenance is used to provide information enabling quality control, re-run computational workflows, and reproduce results. IPPD/2 has been building a scalable provenance management system that enables the capture of provenance from the high-level workflow through all relevant system levels in one integrated environment. Leveraging this work, our recent efforts have included using provenance as an enabling technique. Workload characterization: Leveraging provenance and analysis, we characterize data movement within network, storage, and memory over a variety of workloads. This characterization enables an understanding by performance analysts and application developers of the range of behaviors that could be expected. Performance Prediction for Workflows: The goal of modeling distributed workflows is to understand performance bottlenecks and enable more intelligent task scheduling to optimize selected metrics of interest (e.g., task throughput or output data rate). IPPD/2 has utilized both analytical and AI/ML modeling methodologies for performance modeling. Advanced Scheduling and Fault Modeling for Workflows: Scheduling of large-scale scientific workflows on geographically distributed resources is a challenging problem. To improve workflow throughput, we combined novel scheduling algorithms with task predictions from performance modeling and fault modeling. Dynamically Alleviating Bottlenecks in Workflows: Exploiting our provenance, analysis, and modeling efforts, we have explored and developed several techniques for dynamically detecting and alleviating bottlenecks in data movement. In particular, we have spent considerable effort demonstrating our techniques on production-like workflow configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1992

Laser ranging data analysis

Center for Space Research efforts have focused on the near real-time analysis of Lageos laser ranging data and on the production of predictive ephemerides. The data are analyzed in terms of range bias, time bias, and internal precision, and estimates for the Earth orientation parameters X(sub p), Y(sub p) and UT1 are obtained. The results of these analyses are reported in a variety of formats. In addition several additional stations began sending not only quick-look observations but also normal points created on-site with new software. These normal points are transmitted in a new standard format different from either current quick-look or MERIT-II full-rate formats. Thus new preprocessing software was written and successfully tested on these data. Inspection of the Bendix produced Lageos full-rate normal points continued, with detailed analyses and filtering of all 1991 A and B release normal points for Lageos through the beginning of 1992. A summary of the combined full-rate and quick-look normal point data set created for 1991 is provided. New long-term ephemerides for Lageos satellite, as well as for Etalon-1 and Etalon-2 (the so-called high satellites used for laser ranging) were produced and distributed to the network stations in cooperation with the Crustal Dynamics Project and Eurolas. These predictions are used by essentially every laser ranging site obtaining regular returns from any of these three satellites.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2024

Quantification of Uncertainty and Risk Sensitivity for Safety of Emerging Operations

The growing need to develop and deploy small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAVs) for various applications in the airspace necessitates reliable tools to accurately predict the flight trajectories of the sUAVs. The knowledge of the predicted trajectories help decision makers anticipate potential conflict, assess the risk, and take appropriate risk mitigation actions. In addition, uncertainties in vehicle models, weather, and controller action further highlights the need for reliable prediction tools. In this project, the application of mixed sparse grid-based quadrature and generalized polynomial chaos(gPC) expansion method for uncertainty quantification and collision assessment in air traffic consisting of fixed-wing small unmanned aerial vehicles (sUAV) was studied. From the results obtained, it can be concluded that this provides a reliable framework to carry out quantitative conflict assessment in an unmanned air traffic, which when employed, can improve the functionalities of the unmanned traffic management system. It was observed that the results from the gPC expansion framework developed in the project can be utilized to conduct rapid probabilistic collision assessment for near real-time unmanned traffic management in the airspace. From the vehicle models, position updates, and wind-field data, a priori gPC based 3-σcon-fidence ellipses can provide estimates of potential conflict at some future instants. The computational costs scaled linearly when the uncertain inputs were fewer. Further, the largest allowable distribution of para-metric uncertainties that leads to the smallest risk of collision in traffic of small unmanned aerial vehicles could be calculated. The time of closest approach between two sUAVs can be established paving way for development of proactive mitigation strategies. The separation between the sUAVs was found to be most significantly affected by uncertainties in the maximum available thrusts, zero-lift drag coefficients, and wing planform areas of the sUAVs. The study of uncertain wind-fields indicated that a heterogeneous traffic mix resulted in an increased probability of conflict. Increased measurement update rate reduced the uncertain-ties in the trajectories of the vehicles, further reducing the probability of conflict but rapid updates of all vehicles in the airspace poses a stringent communication limitation. The gPC framework also provided the means to analyze vehicle impact (crash region) due to loss of control resulting from actuator failure in sUAS traffic, essentially to predict impact and crash zones for representative vehicles. The predicted regions when compared with non-participant density, provides a means to develop an early mitigation strategy, should the sUAV detect an imminent actuator failure.

Rajnish Bhusal↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

prognosis↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water4Energy Tier-1 Raw Observations for TVA Seasonal Prediction, Version 1

Tier-1 (Step-1) raw observation staging collection for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. This data-only deposit includes CPC/PSL teleconnection indices, NOAA OISST monthly and ERSST sea-surface temperature, ERA5-derived daily 1° fields (t2m, tp, msl for 1980–2024), CFSv2 NMME ensemble-mean seasonal baselines, and a TVA boundary mask. The product supports seasonal teleconnection diagnostics and construction of AI ready-to-train packs published separately. Multi-terabyte hourly archives are excluded from this version.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Angle-Resolved Polarized Raman Study of Layered Cr 2 Se 3

The polarization-resolved Raman spectra of two-dimensional Cr 2 Se 3 synthesized via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and chemical vapor transport (CVT) techniques were investigated in detail. The samples were characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS). A distinct polarization dependence was observed in the Raman intensity of all the Cr-Cr, Cr-Se, and Se-Se modes in both samples. The observed angle-dependent Raman intensities of each peak could be related to the crystal structure-specific Raman tensor. XRD results of the bulk Cr 2 Se 3 sample synthesized via CVT confirm its trigonal crystal structure, and the Raman peaks can be fitted using the Raman tensors for the A g and E g modes for both the parallel and crossed polarizations. However, for the Cr 2 Se 3 samples directly grown on Si/SiO 2 substrates by CVD, it was necessary to assume the triclinic crystal structure in order to explain the polarized Raman dependence of all the peaks in both parallel and crossed polarization directions. Furthermore, this is the first experimental result suggesting the existence of triclinic Cr 2 Se 3 crystal structure, which has been theoretically predicted in the Materials Project database.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of dark matter misalignment through the Higgs portal

A light singlet scalar field feebly coupled through the super-renormalizable Higgs portal provides a minimal and well-motivated realization of ultra-light bosonic dark matter. We study the cosmological production of dark matter in this model by elucidating the dynamics of two sources of scalar field misalignment generated during the radiation era. For large scalar masses (above $\mathcal{O}$ (10 −3 eV)), dark matter is produced through thermal misalignment, by which the scalar field is driven towards large field values as a result of the finite-temperature effective potential. The dominance of thermal misalignment in this mass range leads to a sharp relic abundance prediction which is, to a significant extent, insensitive to the initial conditions of the scalar field. On the other hand, for low mass scalars (below $\mathcal{O}$ (10 −5 eV)), dark matter is produced via VEV misalignment, which is caused by the induced scalar field vacuum expectation value triggered by the electroweak phase transition. We show that the relic abundance in this low mass range is sensitive to the scalar field initial conditions. In the intermediate mass range, the relic abundance is a consequence of a competition between thermal misalignment and VEV misalignment, which can potentially lead to novel forced resonance effects which cause a recurring enhancement and suppression in the late time oscillation amplitude as a function of the scalar mass. We compare our relic abundance predictions with constraints and projections from equivalence principle and inverse square law tests, stellar cooling, resonant molecular absorption, and observations of extra-galactic background light and diffuse X-ray backgrounds. New experimental ideas are needed to probe most of the cosmologically motivated regions of parameter space.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Mathematical Reconstruction of Land Carbon Models From Their Numerical Output: Computing Soil Radiocarbon From C Dynamics

Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a powerful tracer of the global carbon cycle that is commonly used to assess carbon cycling rates in various Earth system reservoirs and as a benchmark to assess model performance. Therefore, it has been recommended that Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 report predicted radiocarbon values for relevant carbon pools. However, a detailed representation of radiocarbon dynamics may be an impractical burden on model developers. Here, we present an alternative approach to compute radiocarbon values from the numerical output of an ESM that does not explicitly represent these dynamics. The approach requires computed 12 C stocks and fluxes among all carbon pools for a particular simulation of the model. From this output, a time-dependent linear compartmental system is computed with its respective state-transition matrix. Using transient atmospheric 14 C values as inputs, the state-transition matrix is then applied to compute radiocarbon values for each pool, the average value for the entire system, and component fluxes. We demonstrate the approach with ELMv1-ECA, the land component of an ESM model that explicitly represents 12 C, and 14 C in 7 soil pools and 10 vertical layers. Results from our proposed method are highly accurate (relative error <0.01%) compared with the ELMv1-ECA 12 C and 14 C predictions, demonstrating the potential to use this approach in CMIP6 and other model simulations that do not explicitly represent 14 C.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗