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At least 307 records · Page 17

Resolving Mixtures of Soot Characterized by SP-AMS Spectra Using a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model

Soot produced by detonation or combustion events exhibits different chemical properties depending on the fuel, device construction, and environmental conditions in which the event occurs. These properties can be useful for defining relevant signatures for probabilistically identifying the different types of events that occurred, based on the soot that is produced from these events. However, it is rare to observe samples of soot from a detonation or combustion that are not contaminated by outside particles. In this paper, we present a method for resolving mixtures of soot to determine the contributions of sources that may be present in samples of recovered soot. We use Latent Dirichlet Allocation to describe the generative process for a sample of recovered soot, and use Variational Bayesian Inference to learn about the parameters associated with the generative model. We demonstrate the utility of this method by considering real samples of mixtures of soot under various frameworks to show that the model is able to identify the different components present in a sample of soot as well as their mixing proportions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Safety Hazards of Batteries and Hydrogen Storage Systems in Proximity

This report addresses the safety concerns and mitigations for battery failures and their impact on hydrogen storage systems. Through an analysis of failure modes, this report highlights the risks posed by thermal runaway and chemical emissions caused by batteries. Although rare, battery thermal failure events may prompt the opening of the relief valve on the hydrogen tank. Strategies such as battery management systems, thermal management systems, and multiple thermally activated pressure relief devices can mitigate these risks. Potential simulations and experiments to better quantify the unique risks posed by lithium-ion batteries near tanks are suggested. Improving safety standards will enable integration of batteries and hydrogen storage systems in various energy storage technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Quantifying wildfire drivers and predictability in boreal peatlands using a two-step error-correcting machine learning framework in TeFire v1.0

Abstract. Wildfires are becoming an increasing challenge to the sustainability of boreal peatland (BP) ecosystems and can alter the stability of boreal carbon storage. However, predicting the occurrence of rare and extreme BP fires proves to be challenging, and gaining a quantitative understanding of the factors, both natural and anthropogenic, inducing BP fires remains elusive. Here, we quantified the predictability of BP fires and their primary controlling factors from 1997 to 2015 using a two-step correcting machine learning (ML) framework that combines multiple ML classifiers, regression models, and an error-correcting technique. We found that (1) the adopted oversampling algorithm effectively addressed the unbalanced data and improved the recall rate by 26.88 %–48.62 % when using multiple datasets, and the error-correcting technique tackled the overestimation of fire sizes during fire seasons; (2) nonparametric models outperformed parametric models in predicting fire occurrences, and the random forest machine learning model performed the best, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranging from 0.83 to 0.93 across multiple fire datasets; and (3) four sets of factor-control simulations consistently indicated the dominant role of temperature, air dryness, and climate extreme (i.e., frost) for boreal peatland fires, overriding the effects of precipitation, wind speed, and human activities. Our findings demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of ML techniques in predicting rare and extreme fire events and disentangle the primary factors determining BP fires, which are critical for predicting future fire risks under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hanford Tank Vapors in Worker Breathing Zones - Source, Dispersion, and Receptor Data - 20373

A wide range of organic and inorganic chemicals from historical Hanford Site processes are now stored in 177 underground storage tanks at the Hanford tank farms. Workers at the Hanford tank farms have expressed concerns about chemical vapor exposures for many years. During the spring of 2014, worker reports of chemical odors and/or symptoms prompted the development of the Savannah River National Laboratory Hanford Tank Vapor Assessment Team (TVAT) and their resulting independent assessment and recommendations concerning tank farm worker reports of vapors. The Tank Vapor Assessment report included a hypothesis that 'vapors coming out of tanks in high concentration (bolus) plumes sporadically intersected with the breathing zones of workers, resulting in brief but intense exposures to some workers.' The focus of this effort is to present current knowledge to describe the mechanisms by which workers may experience short duration vapor concentrations above background in the tank farms environment. The TVAT hypothesis that workers have experienced concentrations approaching 80% of the tank headspace up to 3 meters (10 feet) from tank sources is not supported by sampling data or modeling results. Modeling indicates that concentrations are quickly reduced from the source, and that the upper end of predicted concentrations at worker breathing zones are a factor of 10 or more lower than source concentrations. Area measurements corroborate the fact that worker breathing zone concentrations are 10 to 100 times lower than source concentrations, and events with elevated concentrations are rare. These reduced vapor concentration levels may result in detectable odors or irritation, depending on a worker's specific odor threshold and sensitivity to the chemical species. Short-duration vapor events may be mitigated by evaluating daily atmospheric conditions in conjunction with planned tank farm activities. Monitoring changing conditions related to tank vapors concentrations at the source and within worker breathing zone is also an important step to protect workers from short duration elevated concentration events. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The REDTOP experiment: Rare $\eta/\eta^{\prime}$ Decays To Probe New Physics

The $\eta$ and $\eta^{\prime}$ mesons are nearly unique in the particle universe since they are almost Goldstone bosons and the dynamics of their decays are strongly constrained. The integrated $\eta$-meson samples collected in earlier experiments amount to $\sim10^{9}$ events. A new experiment, REDTOP (Rare Eta Decays To Probe New Physics), is being proposed, with the intent of collecting a data sample of order 10$^{14}$ $\eta$ (10$^{12}$ $\eta^{\prime}$) for studying very rare decays. Such statistics are sufficient for investigating several symmetry violations, and for searching for particles and fields beyond the Standard Model. In this work we present several studies evaluating REDTOP sensitivity to processes that couple the Standard Model to New Physics through all four of the so-called \emph{portals}: the Vector, the Scalar, the Axion and the Heavy Lepton portal. The sensitivity of the experiment is also adequate for probing several conservation laws, in particular $CP$, $T$ and Lepton Universality, and for the determination of the $\eta$ form factors, which is crucial for the interpretation of the recent measurement of muon $g-2$.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

4th TDAMM Workshop White Paper

Time-Domain and Multi-Messenger Astrophysics (TDAMM) is entering a fundamentally new phase characterized by an unprecedented increase in the rate and diversity of astrophysical transient detections. The community is transitioning from a discovery-limited to a follow-up-limited era, driven by major investments across electromagnetic, gravitational-wave, and neutrino observatories. Upcoming facilities such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, the Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, and wide-field survey instruments will produce a deluge of time-domain alerts, reaching millions of events per night. Simultaneously, upgrades to the gravitational-wave network (LVK O5 and beyond) and neutrino observatories (IceCube Gen2) will significantly increase the detection rates of non-electromagnetic messengers. New high-energy missions and expansions of the InterPlanetary Network (IPN) will further enhance discovery capabilities across the gamma-ray and X-ray regimes. This convergence of capabilities represents a transformative opportunity: for the first time, the community will routinely detect rare and high-impact events across multiple messengers. However, the scientific return from these discoveries will depend critically on the ability to rapidly identify, prioritize, and coordinate follow-up observations across a heterogeneous and globally distributed set of facilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Threat Landscape for BESS and IBR

The cyber risk landscape for BESS and IBR can be broken up by threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences for these systems. This presentation walks through the cyber risk landscape for BESS through the lens of consequence-informed awareness and mitigation for each risk factor. Threats with varying capabilities have been demonstrated in real-world events. Though threat actors can rarely be directly influenced by organizations, exposure of systems to adversaries can be limited (a known issue with IBR systems) to reduce likelihood of adversaries accessing systems with disruptive consequences. Common trends in disclosed IBR vulnerabilities include weak password generation or managements for various devices or services and web portal vulnerabilities that provide unauthorized access to data or capabilities or elevated user privileges. Understanding these common vulnerabilities and considering the consequences if these types of vulnerabilities were to occur can help mitigate risk. Consequences range from loss-of-view events that have no reliability impact to asset damage or grid stability impacts. Five case studies are briefly shared to highlight trends in real-world events affecting IBR.

14 - SOLAR ENERGY↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

Discovery of new isotopes in the fragmentation of 82 Se and insights into their production

The production cross sections of neutron-rich nuclei for elements just above 60 Ca were measured at the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). Four previously unobserved isotopes ( 63 Sc, 65,66 Ti, and 68 V) were produced, separated, and identified for the first time using the Advanced Rare Isotope Separator (ARIS). One event was found to be consistent with 61 Ca . The new isotopes were created through the interaction of an 82 Se beam with a carbon target at an energy of 228 MeV/𝑢 and a primary beam current of 1.07 p⁢µ⁢A. The event-by-event particle identification of the mass number (𝐴), atomic number (𝑍), and ionic charge state (𝑞) for the reaction products was achieved by combining measurements of energy loss, time of flight, magnetic rigidity, and total kinetic energy. This successful search for new isotopes, conducted at the beginning of FRIB's third year of operation, highlights the facility's discovery potential, which will continue to grow as the beam current increases. The production cross sections were analyzed in the context of the newly developed Δ⁢𝐵⁢𝐸 systematics that provides trends in neutron-rich regions and increased sensitivity to nuclear binding, an important nuclear structure observable. Furthermore, the new systematics addresses gaps in 𝑄 𝑔 -based methods commonly used to interpret the production cross sections of light neutron-rich elements, and provides an efficient empirical approach to describe cross-section trends across isotopic chains. Good agreement with the measured data was obtained when the Δ⁢𝐵⁢𝐸 systematics and abrasion-ablation calculations were performed using the Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov (HFB-22) mass table.

59 ≤ A ≤ 89↗

Search for Dark Photons in Rare $Z$ Boson Decays with the ATLAS Detector

A search for events with a dark photon produced in association with a dark Higgs boson via rare decays of the standard model Z boson is presented, using 139 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV proton-proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The dark boson decays into a pair of dark photons, and at least two of the three dark photons must each decay into a pair of electrons or muons, resulting in at least two same-flavor opposite-charge lepton pairs in the final state. The data are found to be consistent with the background prediction, and upper limits are set on the dark photon’s coupling to the dark Higgs boson times the kinetic mixing between the standard model photon and the dark photon, α D ϵ 2 , in the dark photon mass range of [5, 40] GeV except for the $Υ$ mass window [8.8, 11.1] GeV. This search explores new parameter space not previously excluded by other experiments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Kinetic Monte Carlo Framework for Coupled Degradation and Dehydration of Anion Exchange Membranes

Kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations, augmented with temporal-acceleration schemes, can efficiently handle stiff reaction-transport networks when fast processes rapidly relax to quasi-equilibrium on a fixed lattice. However, in glassy anion-exchange membranes (AEM), rare and irreversible chemical degradation events continuously reshape the nanoscale morphology, and the associated hydration and transport degrees of freedom remain far from a well-defined local equilibrium. This combination of evolving state space and nonequilibrated fast dynamics lies outside the scope of existing kMC acceleration frameworks. Here, to address this challenge, we introduce an auxiliary-particle kinetic Monte Carlo (AP-kMC) scheme. In AP-kMC, short-lived mobile particles spawned at degradation sites execute hop, water-elimination, and decay moves, enforcing rapid local relaxation of the hydration structure while preserving the stochastic rules of kMC. Parameterized with molecular-dynamics morphologies and experimental solution degradation kinetics, AP-kMC reproduces the evolution of ion-exchange capacity, water uptake, and conductivity, and reveals a feedback loop in which poorly hydrated sites degrade first and each degradation event induces further local dehydration. The resulting thinning and fragmentation of water channels cause loss of hydrophilic percolation and abrupt conductivity collapse well before complete charge loss. AP-kMC thus reframes AEM durability as a coupled degradation–drying–percolation problem and provides a transferable strategy to simulate reactive, out-of-equilibrium polymer electrolytes where local solvation controls reactivity.

organic↗

Towards Online Machine Learning in DUNE Data Acquisition

Processing the large volumes of data produced by liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC) experiments presents a significant challenge, especially those at the scale of DUNE. This is a particular challenge when aiming to trigger on low-energy neutrinos from core-collapse supernovae, which are typically buried in a high-rate radiological background. To enable real-time event selection suitable for such rare signals, we are developing machine learning based data filtering methods. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach, we implemented such pipeline using the ICEBERG detector at Fermilab as a small-scale LArTPC, with a focus on identifying Michel electrons as a proxy for low-energy neutrino interactions. This poster will present the current status of integrating these machine learning models into the data acquisition (DAQ) system of this detector.

Dalager, Olivia [Fermilab]↗

The Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1): Light Curves and Photometric Classification of 1975 Supernovae

We present the Young Supernova Experiment Data Release 1 (YSE DR1), comprised of processed multicolor PanSTARRS1 griz and Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) gr photometry of 1975 transients with host–galaxy associations, redshifts, spectroscopic and/or photometric classifications, and additional data products from 2019 November 24 to 2021 December 20. YSE DR1 spans discoveries and observations from young and fast-rising supernovae (SNe) to transients that persist for over a year, with a redshift distribution reaching z ≈ 0.5. We present relative SN rates from YSE's magnitude- and volume-limited surveys, which are consistent with previously published values within estimated uncertainties for untargeted surveys. We combine YSE and ZTF data, and create multisurvey SN simulations to train the ParSNIP and SuperRAENN photometric classification algorithms; when validating our ParSNIP classifier on 472 spectroscopically classified YSE DR1 SNe, we achieve 82% accuracy across three SN classes (SNe Ia, II, Ib/Ic) and 90% accuracy across two SN classes (SNe Ia, core-collapse SNe). Our classifier performs particularly well on SNe Ia, with high (>90%) individual completeness and purity, which will help build an anchor photometric SNe Ia sample for cosmology. We then use our photometric classifier to characterize our photometric sample of 1483 SNe, labeling 1048 (~71%) SNe Ia, 339 (~23%) SNe II, and 96 (~6%) SNe Ib/Ic. YSE DR1 provides a training ground for building discovery, anomaly detection, and classification algorithms, performing cosmological analyses, understanding the nature of red and rare transients, exploring tidal disruption events and nuclear variability, and preparing for the forthcoming Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

νBDX: a Coherent Elastic Neutrino Nucleus Scattering (CEνNS) experiment at Jefferson Lab

Particle physics is an ever-changing field seeking to explain phenomena that lie at the limits of our current knowledge. Among discovered and hypothesized interactions, Coherent Elastic Neutrino-Nucleus Scattering (CE?NS) stands out as a fascinating and elusive phenomenon, offering a unique window into the nature of neutrinos and their interactions with matter. CE?NS, a process predicted by the Standard Model, represents one of the subtle ways in which neutrinos can interact with atomic nuclei. Unlike other neutrinonucleus interactions, CE?NS occurs coherently, meaning that the entire nucleus collectively responds to the neutrino-mediated weak force, resulting in small energy transfers to the nucleus as a whole. The extremely rare nature of CE?NS events presents a formidable challenge to experimenters seeking to detect and study these interactions. Recent advances in detector technologies and the implementation of large-scale experiments, such as coherent neutrino scattering experiments at research facilities around the world, have opened up new avenues for exploring this elusive phenomenon. These experiments aim not only to observe CE?NS directly but also to extract valuable information on neutrino properties, nuclear structure, and potential deviations from the Standard Model. This thesis aims to study the feasibility of an experiment to study CE?NS at The Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA, USA. This would be an experiment that exploits the production of neutrinos by an electron beam dumped on a thick target (the beam dump). The large quantity of neutrinos produced and their energy profile are well suited to the purpose of studying the CE?NS. In my thesis, I will start from previous studies on CE?NS and from theoretical considerations regarding the process, then quantify the expected events for a hypothetical experiment and possible backgrounds through simulations aimed at optimizing the geometry of the future detector. I will also show some tests on selected detector components that will be part of a first prototype.

Grazzi, Stefano↗

Changing Trends in Drought Patterns over the Northeastern United States Using Multiple Large Ensemble Datasets

Since the infamous extreme drought of the 1960s, the climate of the northeastern United States (NEUS) has generally trended toward warmer and wetter conditions. Nonetheless, there is mounting evidence that short-term droughts will continue to pose a significant risk for this region. To better explore the processes governing events such as these, climate models have adopted more complex representations of the fully coupled atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice system; however, large uncertainties in future projections still persist, with internal variability necessitating large ensembles to understand trends in both rare and high-impact extreme events such as rapidly developing droughts (a term here that includes flash droughts developing on monthly scales). In this study, seven large ensemble (LE) models are employed to answer the outstanding question: How are the frequency and character of drought in the NEUS changing under a warming climate? We find that most LE models indicate the NEUS will experience a long-term wetting trend with more “extremely wet” months, but also more frequent short-term extreme droughts. These changes are associated with increasing precipitation, atmospheric water demand, and climate variability. We also conclude that discrepant trends in precipitation and evapotranspiration variability will lead to increasing anticorrelation of these variables, which is relevant to the intensification of rapidly developing drought, particularly in the spring season. These changes are associated with an increase in evapotranspiration from plants, brought by an earlier emergence of the growing season and denser vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using Boosted Decision Trees to Select High Quality Measurements in the Mu2e Experiment at Fermilab

This thesis presents the implementation and evaluation of a Boosted Decision Tree (BDT) model to improve the selection of high-quality track measurements in the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab. The Mu2e experiment is a high-energy physics experiments seeking to observe a rare theoretical physics process known as Charged Lepton Flavor Violation. A significant challenge faced by the Mu2e experiment are so-called background events, which are events whose data mimics that of the rare physics process the experiment seeks to observe. Without a mechanism to reduce background, it would be impossible to know whether Charged Lepton Flavor Violation occurred or not. To this end, high-quality track measurements must be distinguished from low-quality track measurements. A track can be conceived of as the reconstructed path of a particle that traveled through the Mu2e detector. In addition to other data, data about such tracks is stored using a C++-based framework, specific to the domain of high-energy physics, known as ROOT. A boosted decision tree model was trained using ROOT’s Toolkit For Multivariate Analysis by leveraging variables ancillary to track quality. In evaluation, the BDT achieves a ROC-AUC of 0.927 in discriminating good-quality tracks from poor-quality tracks. Such a score is indicative of both strong discrimination and strong generalization. Subsequently, it is shown that applying a BDT-based quality cut to the distribution of particle momenta significantly enhances the signal-to-background distinction for signal electrons, paving the way for improved sensitivity to Charged Lepton Flavor Violation.

Mullany, Brendan T. [Drew U.] (ORCID:0009000818888↗