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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Performance Evaluation of Intelligent Solar Control Software Through Hardware-in-the-Loop (CRADA Final Report)

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been developed by Latimer Controls, Inc. to estimate the headroom of large PV plants for grid operation and control; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. Latimer Controls, Inc. received two voucher awards for research at a national laboratory from the Department of Energy American Made Solar Prize Round 6. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) was selected to collaborate with Latimer staff to conduct a performance evaluation of Latimer PV control software. The NREL team will develop a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed to perform testing and validation of the Latimer PV control technology in a de-risked yet realistic testbed environment. Latimer and NREL worked together to analyze the test data, draw conclusions from the results, and disseminate the resulting scientific findings. In this CRADA work, we propose to test and validate the real-world application of the Latimer Control solution in an HIL environment. We evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. In particular, a data-driven potential high limit (PHL) estimation is developed for large solar plants to accurately estimate their headroom so that they have fast and short-time regulation and control capability to participate in grid services and respond to grid signals in real time (e.g., AGC). This PHL estimation algorithm is embedded in a hardware power plant controller (PPC) and tested with an IEEE-39 bus system model developed in RTDS. To account for the varying cloud conditions and diverse inverter dispatches, we developed a 135-MW PV plant with detailed modeling of 27 individual PV modules and inverters using RTDS. The real-world communications used in such big plants, such as ModBus TCP/IP for inverter level and DNP3 for plant level, were developed to emulate the real-world applications in big PV plants. The ML-based PHL estimation method is tested under nine separate weather scenarios against the ‘reference-control’ solution, hereafter referred to as the baseline solution. The baseline method reserves a subset of inverters (reference group) to operate at their PHL at all times and dispatches only the remaining inverters (control group) at curtailed levels to fulfill the flexibility need. Despite being successfully piloted by NREL in California in 2017 and Chile in 2020, there exist two gaps in the state of the art to fully unlock the flexibility of PV plants: a. There is a trade-off between the PHL estimation accuracy and the flexibility range. b. There lacks granularity in the PHL estimation to capture the variation across inverters. The Latimer solution seeks to address these gaps by applying machine learning methods to improve PHL estimation accuracy while accounting for variability at every inverter. Performance metrics were taken from the 2023 Georgia Power CARES utility-scale RFP. The results demonstrate that the ML-based approach outperforms the traditional baseline method in PHL estimation accuracy for 7 of 9 scenarios. The average PHL error across the nine scenarios was 7.40% for the ML-based method, 2.06% less than the 9.46% PHL error average across scenarios that was exhibited by the baseline method. Additionally, the PHL error was below 5% for at least 95% of the testing interval for 3 of 9 tested intervals with the ML approach, whereas it did not achieve this metric for any of the baseline tests. Overall, simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional baseline reference-control approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency. This laboratory HIL testing using real PPC, representative power system simulation models in real-time with detailed PV plant and inverter models, and real-world communication protocols gives us confidence that this machine learning based PHL estimation algorithm works well in the hardware PPC and therefore de-risks future field commissioning. The end goal of this project is to advance grid technology to address the grid operation challenges brought by solar plant’s variability and uncertainties in power generation.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Hole Transfer in Dye-Sensitized Cesium Lead Halide Perovskite Photovoltaics: Effect of Interfacial Bonding

Lead halide perovskites have gained attention as an active material in solid-state dye-sensitized photovoltaics due to their high absorption of visible light and long charge-transport lengths. In perovskite-based dye-sensitized photovoltaic architectures the perovskite material is typically paired with a hole-transport material, such as spiro-OMeTAD, which extracts a hole from the photoexcited perovskite to generate free charge carriers. In this study, we explored two competing charge-transfer pathways at the interface between lead halide perovskite and spiro-OMeTAD: “through-bond” and “through-space”. For the through-bond pathway we use a segment of spiro-OMeTAD that contains methoxy linker groups, which will be referred to as “dye with methoxy linker groups” (DML). For the through-space pathway we use a segment of spiro-OMeTAD with removed linker groups, triphenylamine, which will be referred to as “dye”. Four atomistic models were studied: (I) a periodic cesium lead iodide (CsPbI3) perovskite nanowire (NW) that is paired with the dye molecule, (II) a periodic CsPbI3 perovskite NW paired with the DML molecule where the linker groups form coordination bond to the surface of the nanowire, (III) a CsPbI 3 perovskite thin film (TF) paired with the dye molecule, and (IV) a CsPbI 3 perovskite TF paired with the DML molecule. Charge-transfer dynamics, providing rates of electron/hole relaxation and relaxation pathways, are calculated using reduced density matrix formalism using Redfield theory. Finally, it was found that the terminal surface of the perovskite (Pb–I vs Cs–I) has important implications for energetic alignment at the perovskite–dye interface due to band bending. Finally, computed charge-transfer rates match well with upper and lower bounds of reported experimental results where “fast” picosecond rates correspond to through-bond pathway and “slow” nanosecond rates correspond to through-space.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

H2OI95: A Stand-Alone Fortran Code for Evaluating the IAPWS-95 Equation-of-State Model for Water (Rev. 1)

H2OI95 is a stand-alone Fortran code for evaluating the IAPWS-95 equation-of-state model for the thermodynamic properties of water. It also evaluates the corresponding thermochemical properties of water consistent with the CODATA recommendations. The IAPWS-95 model is based on a model equation for the dimensionless Helmholtz energy for which the primary variables are the inverse reduced temperature (τ = T cr /T ) and reduced density (δ = ρ/ρ cr ). Here T is the absolute temperature (K), ρ is density (kg/m³), and the subscript “ cr ” refers to the critical point of water (647.096 K and 22.064 MPa pressure in this model, for which ρ cr is 322 kg/m³). The code solves four basic types of problems, distinguished by the specified inputs: 1. Temperature (K) and density (ρ kg/m³) or reduced density (δ) 2. Temperature (K) and pressure (MPa). 3. Temperature (K) on the saturation (liquid-vapor equilibrium) curve 4. Pressure (MPa) on the saturation curve. Each type of problem is run using a corresponding input (text) file. All but the first type of problem require iteration. For example, to solve for desired temperature and pressure, the reduced density must be adjusted to give the desired pressure. Iteration is accomplished using the Newton-Raphson method, though the secant method is also used in solving the fourth type of problem. For the last three types of problems, H2OI95 has been used to conduct numerical studies of convergence and the problem of multiple numerical solutions, some of which are not physically valid. Obtaining valid results depends mainly on appropriate choice of starting values for the density. The default values used in H2OI95 appear to consistently lead to generally desired results. With modification (not addressed here), H2OI95 can be used to support SUPCRT92 and similar codes that compute chemical thermodynamic properties of species and reactions over a wide range of temperature and pressure (273.16-1273K and 0-1000 MPa). Version 1.1 of this software calculates an extended set of water properties, including some derivable solely from IAPWS-95, such as the isobaric thermal expansivity and the isothermal compressibility, and still other properties based on supplementary models sanctioned by IAPWS, including the dynamic viscosity, thermal conductivity, surface tension, and static dielectric constant, and various other properties (notably Debye-Hückel parameters) derivable from the dielectric constant and its partial derivatives with respect to temperature and pressure. A coding error in Version 1.0 was identified while testing the implementation of the viscosity model. This error is described in Appendix C. It mainly affects calculation of “higher order” properties such as compressibility and heat capacity near the critical point.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Enhanced Performance Assessment Models for Generic Deep Geologic Repositories for High-Level Waste and Spent Nuclear Fuel - 16223

Development of an enhanced performance assessment (PA) capability for geologic disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level waste has been ongoing for several years in the U.S. repository program. The new Generic Disposal System Analysis (GDSA) modeling and software framework is intended to be flexible enough to evolve through the various phases of repository activities, beginning with generic PA activities in the current Concept Evaluation phase to site-specific PA modeling in the Repository Development phase. The GDSA Framework utilizes modern software and hardware capabilities by being based on open-source software architecture and being configured to run in a massively parallel, high-performance computing (HPC) environment. It consists of two main components, the open-source Dakota uncertainty sampling and analysis software and the PFLOTRAN reactive multi-phase flow and transport simulator. Reference cases or 'generic repositories' have been, and are being developed, based on typical properties for potential salt, clay, and granite host-rock formations and corresponding engineered design concepts for each medium. Past simulations have focused on a generic repository in bedded-salt host rock, while the most recent research has focused on a reference case for a typical clay/shale host rock. A variety of single-realization (i.e., deterministic) and multi-realization (probabilistic) results for the new clay reference case are presented, including an analysis of the effects of heat generation on repository performance, assuming a 100-year out-of-reactor commercial SNF waste form. Order-of-magnitude differences between predicted radionuclide concentrations in thermal versus isothermal simulations imply that mechanistic, coupled-process modeling in three-dimensional (3-D) domains can be important for building confidence in post-closure performance assessments. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

A high-resolution Hubble Space Telescope study of apparent Lyman continuum leakers at z ∼ 3

We present U{sub 336}V{sub 606}J{sub 125}H{sub 160} follow-up Hubble Space Telescope (HST) observations of 16 z ∼ 3 candidate Lyman continuum (LyC) emitters in the HS1549+1919 field. With these data, we obtain high spatial-resolution photometric redshifts of all sub-arcsecond components of the LyC candidates in order to eliminate foreground contamination and identify robust candidates for leaking LyC emission. Of the 16 candidates, we find one object with a robust LyC detection that is not due to foreground contamination. This object (MD5) resolves into two components; we refer to the LyC-emitting component as MD5b. MD5b has an observed 1500 Å to 900 Å flux-density ratio of (F{sub UV}/F{sub LyC}){sub obs}=4.0±2.0, compatible with predictions from stellar population synthesis models. Assuming minimal IGM absorption, this ratio corresponds to a relative (absolute) escape fraction of f{sub esc,rel}{sup MD5b} = 75%–100% (f{sub esc,abs}{sup MD5b} = 14%–19%). The stellar population fit to MD5b indicates an age of ≲50 Myr, which is in the youngest 10% of the HST sample and the youngest third of typical z ∼ 3 Lyman break galaxies, and may be a contributing factor to its LyC detection. We obtain a revised, contamination-free estimate for the comoving specific ionizing emissivity at z = 2.85, indicating (with large uncertainties) that star-forming galaxies provide roughly the same contribution as QSOs to the ionizing background at this redshift. Our results show that foreground contamination prevents ground-based LyC studies from obtaining a full understanding of LyC emission from z ∼ 3 star-forming galaxies. Future progress in direct LyC searches is contingent upon the elimination of foreground contaminants through high spatial-resolution observations, and upon acquisition of sufficiently deep LyC imaging to probe ionizing radiation in high-redshift galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor Reference Plant Model

This report details the progress of Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in creating a reference plant multiphysics model for the Advanced Burner Test Reactor (ABTR). This model was developed under Task 13 of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission project “Development and Modeling Support for Advanced Non-Light Water Reactors,” and is an extension of the reference plant model developed in Task 4b, which was improved upon in the following ways. (1) The discrete ordinates method was used in lieu of the super-homogenization (SPH)-corrected diffusion approximation in order to better capture the anisotropic scattering contribution and the neutron leakage change due to thermal expansion. (2) The novel neutronic spatial discretization approach, termed the ring-heterogeneous (RH) approximation, was conceptualized and introduced to capture the differential expansion of the materials in the core. This new technique proved capable of preserving fission rates and maintaining the eigenvalue within 2.5% and 266 pcm with 9 neutron energy groups, respectively. Separating the different materials in the core enables the differential expansion of materials to be explicitly accounted for, eliminating the need for problem-specific cross-section functionalization techniques. (3) The SAM model for the core and system thermal-hydraulics analysis was updated to include 61 channels instead of just four representative ones. This enables users to obtain improved spatial resolution for sodium temperature and density scalar fields. (4) All the mesh files were created via the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) Reactor module, eliminating all reliance on external tools for mesh creation. (5) Finally, the fuel axial expansion now leverages the HT9 and UPuZr material properties that have been validated against experimental data. The reference plant model was used to perform a full-core unprotected loss of flow (ULOF) transient calculation, including neutronics, thermal and mechanical feedback mechanisms. Future work will be devoted to further enhancements of the model. Potential improvements to the model include the addition of the control rod driveline expansion feedback and the upgrading of the support plate model so as to explicitly include 3D effects. Additionally, a Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation funded parallel effort has completely automated the creation of the ring-heterogeneous (RH) mesh from the fully heterogeneous (FH) geometry, thus maximizing user friendliness for the sodium fast reactor sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) workflow and will be incorporated in future work.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2017

On the mobility of carriers at semi-coherent oxide heterointerfaces

In the quest to develop new materials with enhanced ionic conductivity for battery and fuel cell applications, nano-structured oxides have attracted attention. Experimental reports indicate that oxide heterointerfaces can lead to enhanced ionic conductivity, but these same reports cannot elucidate the origin of this enhancement, often vaguely referring to pipe diffusion at misfit dislocations as a potential explanation. However, this highlights the need to understand the role of misfit dislocation structure at semi-coherent oxide heterointerfaces in modifying carrier mobilities. Here, we use atomistic and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) simulations to develop a model of oxygen vacancy migration at SrTiO 3 /MgO interfaces, chosen because the misfit dislocation structure can be modified by changing the termination chemistry. We use atomistic simulations to determine the energetics of oxygen vacancies at both SrO and TiO 2 terminated interfaces, which are then used as the basis of the KMC simulations. While this model is approximate (as revealed by select nudged elastic band calculations), it highlights the role of the misfit dislocation structure in modifying the oxygen vacancy dynamics. We find that oxygen vacancy mobility is significantly reduced at either interface, with slight differences at each interface due to the differing misfit dislocation structure. Here, we conclude that if such semi-coherent oxide heterointerfaces induce enhanced ionic conductivity, it is not a consequence of higher carrier mobility.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2015

Multireference linearized coupled cluster theory for strongly correlated systems using matrix product states

We propose a multireference linearized coupled cluster theory using matrix product states (MPSs-LCC) which provides remarkably accurate ground-state energies, at a computational cost that has the same scaling as multireference configuration interaction singles and doubles, for a wide variety of electronic Hamiltonians. These range from first-row dimers at equilibrium and stretched geometries to highly multireference systems such as the chromium dimer and lattice models such as periodic two-dimensional 1-band and 3-band Hubbard models. The MPS-LCC theory shows a speed up of several orders of magnitude over the usual Density Matrix Renormalization Group (DMRG) algorithm while delivering energies in excellent agreement with converged DMRG calculations. Also, in all the benchmark calculations presented here, MPS-LCC outperformed the commonly used multi-reference quantum chemistry methods in some cases giving energies in excess of an order of magnitude more accurate. As a size-extensive method that can treat large active spaces, MPS-LCC opens up the use of multireference quantum chemical techniques in strongly correlated ab initio Hamiltonians, including two- and three-dimensional solids.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-125: Effects of Couch Position Variability On Dosimetric Accuracy with An MRI-Guided Co-60 Radiation Therapy Machine

Purpose: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) guidance in radiation therapy brings real-time imaging and adaptive planning into the treatment vault where it can account for interfraction and intrafraction movement of soft tissue. The only commercially-available MRI-guided radiation therapy device is a three-head 60Co and MRI system with an integrated treatment planning system (TPS). An up to 20% attenuation of the beam by the couch is well modeled in the TPS. However, variations in the patient’s day-to-day position introduce discrepancies in the actual couch position relative its location as modeled in the treatment plan. For this reason, our institution avoids plans with beams that pass through or near the couch edges. This study looks at plans without restriction on beam angles and investigates the effects of couch shift by simulating shifts of the couch relative to the patient, in order to determine whether couch edge avoidance restrictions can be lifted. Methods: A total of 27 plans from 23 patients were investigated. Couch shifts of 1 and 2 cm were introduced in combinations of lateral and vertical direction to simulate variations in patient positioning on the couch giving 16 shifted plans per reference plan. The shift values of 1 and 2 cm were based on shifts recorded in 320 treatment fractions. Results: Measured couch attenuation versus TPS modeled agreed within 2.1%. Planning Target Volume (PTV) D95 changed less than 1% for 1 and 2 cm couch shifts in only the x-direction and less than 3% for all directions. Conclusion: The dosimetry of all plans with shifts up to ±2 cm was within reasonable clinical tolerances. Robustness of a plan to couch shifts can be tested in the TPS. Inclusion of beams traversing the couch edges should be considered if an improvement in plan quality or delivery time can be achieved.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of different inertial control methods for variable-speed wind turbines simulated by fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence (FAST)

To mitigate the degraded power system inertia and undesirable primary frequency response caused by large-scale wind power integration, the frequency support capabilities of variable-speed wind turbines is studied in this work. This is made possible by controlled inertial response, which is demonstrated on a research turbine - controls advanced research turbine, 3-bladed (CART3). Two distinct inertial control (IC) methods are analysed in terms of their impacts on the grids and the response of the turbine itself. The released kinetic energy in the IC methods are determined by the frequency measurement or shaped active power reference in the turbine speed-power plane. The wind turbine model is based on the high-fidelity turbine simulator fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence, which constitutes the aggregated wind power plant model with the simplified power converter model. The IC methods are implemented over the baseline CART3 controller, evaluated in the modified 9-bus and 14-bus testing power grids considering different wind speeds and different wind power penetration levels. The simulation results provide various insights on designing such kinds of ICs. The authors calculate the short-term dynamic equivalent loads and give a discussion about the turbine structural loadings related to the inertial response.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Determination of g-tensors of low-symmetry Nd{sup 3+} centers in LiNbO{sub 3} by rectification of angular dependence of electron paramagnetic resonance spectra

Two procedures for facilitation of line tracing and deciphering of complicated spectra of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) were developed: a correction of microwave frequencies for every orientation of external magnetic field on the base of known values of g-tensor components for a reference paramagnetic center and followed rectification of measured angular dependences using plots of effective deviation of g{sup 2}-factors of observed lines from effective g{sup 2}-factors of the reference center versus angles or squared cosines of angles describing magnetic field orientations. Their application to EPR spectra of nearly stoichiometric lithium niobate crystals doped with neodymium allowed identifying two axial and six different low-symmetry Nd{sup 3+} centers, to determine all components of their g-tensors, and to propose common divacancy models for a whole family of Nd{sup 3+} centers.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2025

Core Physics Characteristics of Extended Enrichment and High Burnup Boiling Water Reactor Fuel

This paper presents the highlights of boiling water reactor (BWR) core physics studies performed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory as part of a series of studies conducted to compare low-enriched uranium (LEU) with LEU+ fuel. The studies analyzed isotopic fuel content, lattice parameters (Phase 1), and core physics (Phase 2) to identify challenges in operation, storage, and transportation for BWRs and pressurized water reactors (PWRs). Because of a lack of publicly available lattice and core designs for modern BWR fuel assemblies and reactor cores, several optimized lattice designs were generated, and different core loading strategies were investigated. Twelve optimized lattice designs with 235 U enrichments ranging from 1.6% to 9% and gadolinia loadings ranging from 3 to 8 wt% were used to model axial enrichment and geometry variations in fuel assemblies for core designs. Each core shares a common set of approximations in design and analysis to allow for consistent comparisons between LEU and LEU+ fuel. The objective is to highlight anticipated changes in core behavior with respect to the reference LEU core. The results of this study show that the differences in LEU and LEU+ core reactor physics characteristics are less significant than the differences in lattice physics characteristics reported in the Phase 1 studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Investigation on Magnetic-Interacting Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} Nanoparticles Prepared by Electrochemical Synthesis Method

Naked, polyvinylchloride (PVC)-coated, and polyethylene glycol (PEG)-coated Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} nanoparticles (NPs) with an equivalent average particle size of 10 nm were prepared through an electrochemical synthesis method. The structural and magnetic properties were investigated systematically. The X-ray diffraction study coupled with the Rietveld refinement of XRD data showed that samples are crystallized in cubic spinel structure with space group referred to as Fd3m. The nature of DC magnetization versus field M (H) plot for sample resembles qualitatively with ferromagnetic (FM) systems. The AC-susceptibility data obtained at different frequencies confirmed the presence of a frequency-dependent freezing temperature. Based on the interparticle interaction strength and phenomenological models (Néel–Brown, Vogel–Fulcher, and critical slowing down), the magnetic dynamic behavior of nanoparticles was characterized. By fitting the experimental data with mentioned models, the possibility existence of superparamagnetic and a spin-glass state at low temperatures was proposed for the samples. Also, the obtained values from fitting performance showed a coating effect on interparticle interaction for PVC- and PEG-coated Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4} nanoparticles.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Influence of simple terrain on the spatial variability of a low-level jet and wind farm performance in the AWAKEN field campaign

In wind energy research, scientific challenges are often associated with complex terrain sites, where orography, vegetation, and buildings disrupt flow uniformity. However, even sites characterized as simple terrain can exhibit significant spatial variability in wind speed, particularly during stable boundary layers (SBLs) and low-level jets (LLJs). This study investigates these terrain interactions using both simulations and observations from the American WAKe ExperimeNt (AWAKEN). We employ a multiscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation, integrating mesoscale forcing in the coarse domains and representing three rows of turbines from the King Plains wind farm as generalized actuator disks (GAD) in the large-eddy simulation (LES) domains. During a nocturnal LLJ event on 3 April 2023, the downstream, wake-affected turbine rows outperformed the upstream, unwaked row by 25 %–51 %. This counterintuitive result arises from terrain-induced streamwise variations in hub-height wind speed of approximately 4 m s −1 over 5 km – equivalent to ∼50 % of the upstream reference speed. This enhancement outweighs the wake-induced reduction in mean wind speed (∼12 %) and global blockage effects reported in the literature (∼1 %–3.4 %). The multiscale simulations capture the intra-farm spatial variability in power performance observed in SCADA data. Terrain-induced vertical displacement of the LLJ, coupled with large wind shear below the jet maximum, drives the substantial streamwise acceleration within the wind farm. These findings underscore the importance of accounting for spatial variability related to terrain, even in simple landscapes, particularly during LLJ conditions. Incorporating such effects into reduced-order modeling frameworks for wind farm design and control could significantly enhance their effectiveness.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Analysis of transverse shear strains in pre-twisted thick beams using variational asymptotic method

The cross-sectional stiffness matrix is derived for a pre-twisted, moderately thick beam made of transversely isotropic materials and having rectangular cross sections. An asymptotically-exact methodology is used to model the anisotropic beam from 3-D elasticity, without any further assumptions. The beam is allowed to have large displacements and rotations, but small strain is assumed. The strain energy is computed making use of the beam constitutive law and kinematical relations derived with the inclusion of geometrical nonlinearities and an initial twist. The energy functional is minimized making use of the Variational Asymptotic Method (VAM), thereby reducing the cross section to a point on the beam reference line with appropriate properties, forming a 1-D constitutive law. VAM is a mathematical technique employed in the current problem to rigorously split the 3-D analysis of beams into two: a 2-D analysis over the beam cross-sectional domain, which provides a compact semi-analytical form of the properties of the cross sections, and a nonlinear 1-D analysis of the beam ref-erence curve. In this method, as applied herein, the cross-sectional analysis is performed asymptotically by taking advantage of a material small parameter and two geometric small parameters. 3-D strain components are derived using kinematics and arranged in orders of the small parameters. Closed-form expressions are derived for the 3-D non-linear warping and stress fields. Warping functions are obtained by the minimization of strain energy subject to certain set of constraints that render the 1-D strain measures well-defined. The zeroth-order 3-D warping field thus yielded is then used to integrate the 3-D strain energy density over the cross section, resulting in the 1-D strain energy density, which in turn helps identify the corresponding cross-sectional stiffness matrix. The model is capable of predicting interlaminar and transverse shear stresses accurately up to first order.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2013

Environmental Impacts of Wind Power Development on the Population Biology of Greater Prairie-Chickens

1. We investigated the impacts of wind power development on the demography, movements, and population genetics of Greater Prairie-Chickens (Tympanuchus cupido) at three sites in northcentral and eastern Kansas for a 7-year period. Only 1 of 3 sites was developed for wind power, the 201MW Meridan Way Wind Power Facility at the Smoky Hills site in northcentral Kansas. Our project report is based on population data for prairie chickens collected during a 2-year preconstruction period (2007-2008), a 3-year postconstruction period (2009-2011) and one final year of lek surveys (2012). Where relevant, we present preconstruction data from our field studies at reference sites in the northern Flint Hills (2007-2009) and southern Flint Hills (2006-2008). 2. We addressed seven potential impacts of wind power development on prairie chickens: lek attendance, mating behavior, use of breeding habitat, fecundity rates, natal dispersal, survival rates, and population numbers. Our analyses of pre- and postconstruction impacts are based on an analysis of covariance design where we modeled population performance as a function of treatment period, distance to eventual or actual site of the nearest wind turbine, and the interaction of these factors. Our demographic and movement data from the 6-year study period at the Smoky Hills site included 23 lek sites, 251 radio-marked females monitored for 287 bird-years, and 264 nesting attempts. Our genetic data were based on genotypes of 1,760 females, males and chicks that were screened with a set of 27 microsatellite markers that were optimized in the lab. 3. In our analyses of lek attendance, the annual probability of lek persistence during the preconstruction period was ~0.9. During the postconstruction period, distance to nearest turbine did not have a significant effect on the probability of lek persistence. However, the probability of lek persistence increased from 0.69 at 0 m to 0.89 at 30 km from turbines, and most abandoned lek sites were located <5 km from turbines. Probability of lek persistence was significantly related to habitat and number of males. Leks had a higher probability of persistence in grasslands than agricultural fields, and increased from ~0.2 for leks of 5 males, to >0.9 for leks of 10 or more males. Large leks in grasslands should be a higher priority for conservation. Overall, wind power development had a weak effect on the annual probability of lek persistence. 3. We used molecular methods to investigate the mating behavior of prairie chickens. The prevailing view for lek-mating grouse is that females mate once to fertilize the clutch and that conspecific nest parasitism is rare. We found evidence that females mate multiple times to fertilize the clutch (8-18% of broods, 4-38% of chicks) and will parasitize nests of other females during egg-laying (~17% of nests). Variable rates of parentage were highest in the fragmented landscapes at the Smoky Hills field site, and were lower at the Flint Hills field site. Comparisons of the pre- and postconstruction periods showed that wind energy development did not affect the mating behaviors of prairie chickens. 4. We examined use of breeding habitats by radio-marked females and conducted separate analyses for nest site selection, and movements of females not attending nests or broods. The landscape was a mix of native prairie and agricultural habitats, and nest site selection was not random because females preferred to nest in grasslands. Nests tended to be closer to turbines during the postconstruction period and there was no evidence of behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during nest site selection. Movements of females not attending nests or broods showed that females crossed the site of the wind power development at higher rates during the preconstruction period (20%) than the postconstruction period (11%), and that movements away from turbines were more frequent during the postconstruction period. Thus, wind power development appears to affect movements in breeding habitats but not nest site selection of female prairie chickens during the breeding season. 5. We tested the effects of wind power development on five components of female fecundity: timing of clutch initiation, clutch size of first nests and renests, nest survival, and hatchability of eggs. Average date of clutch initiation was 26 April, clutch size was 12.7 and 10.6 eggs for first nests and renests, probability of nest survival was low at 0.18, but egg hatchability was high at 0.79. Wind power development had no impact on reproductive effort or nesting success, and all five components of fecundity were not related to treatment period or distance to turbine. Nest survival was the main factor limiting reproductive output of female prairie chickens and most losses were due to predation. Daily nest survival was strongly related to vegetative cover at the nest. Changes to rangeland management practices that would double nesting cover from 2.5 to 5 dm would triple the probability of nest survival from 0.17 to 0.52. Grass and forb cover had weak positive effects on daily nest survival whereas shrub cover, proximity to woodlands, and recent rainfall had negative effects. Reproductive performance of prairie chickens is low in managed rangelands in northcentral Kansas and efforts to improve range conditions and reduce predator activity would aid recovery of prairie chicken populations. 6. We used molecular methods to investigate patterns of natal dispersal in prairie chickens. High rates of nest failure limited the number of young that we could sample. Direct detections of natal dispersal were limited because survival of newly hatched chicks to become adults were low and because we were unable to detect dispersal distances outside of our study area. Direct observations of natal movements were limited and were inadequate to make conclusions about the potential impacts of wind energy development on natal dispersal. Spatial correlograms of genetic distance among males at leks were a more sensitive measure of population structure, and indicated a weak effect of wind energy development on the spatial genetic structure of prairie chickens. 7. We tested the effects of wind power development on female survival with time-to-event models, and on residual body mass of males with analyses of covariance. Distance to turbine and the interaction of distance and treatment period had no effect on female survival. Contrary to predictions of negative impacts of wind power development, the probability of female was lowest during the preconstruction period (0.274) and increased significantly during the postconstruction period (0.543). Inspection of hazard functions indicated that the difference in annual survival could be attributed to a higher risk of mortality during the lekking season in the preconstruction period. We suggest that wind power development may have improved ecological conditions for prairie chickens by disrupting the foraging behavior of diurnal raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek sites. In support of this idea, raptor kills tended to be farther from turbines during the postconstruction period whereas mammalian kills were closer. Analyses of the major causes of mortality did not support our hypothesis because the odds of raptor predation were greater after development was completed. Most mortality losses of radio-marked females were due to predation, and losses to collision mortality or harvest were rare events. Low rates of natural mortality during fall and winter imply that harvest is likely to be additive mortality in prairie chickens. Wind energy development reduced the residual body mass of male Greater Prairie-Chickens at lek sites near turbines. Low values of residual body mass could have a negative impact on individual survival or fecundity rates, or may be related to predation risk and flight performance of males displaying at open lek sites. 8. We tested for impacts of wind power development on population numbers of prairie chickens with monitoring of male numbers at leks, and with genetic measures of population structure. Lek counts indicated that wind power development did not affect the population size of prairie chickens. Peak counts of males at leks were recorded the first year after construction was completed and the highest rates of population change were observed during the interval when the wind power facility was constructed. Population numbers of prairie chickens near and distant from turbines appeared to covary in parallel, probably because bird numbers were linked by dispersal movements. Estimates of population viability based on genetic diversity, effective population size and rates of population exchange did not show annual changes and were unaffected by wind development during our study. Estimates of relatedness among males at the same and different leks suggested that wind power development has either reduced dispersal rates or changed settlement patterns, leading to higher rates of relatedness among males displaying at the same lek site. 9. Greater Prairie-Chickens were not strongly affected by wind power development in Kansas. Negative impacts of wind power development included a trend for reductions in lek persistence near turbines, behavioral avoidance of turbines by females during their breeding season movements, and changes in the genetic structure of males at leks that were consistent with reduced dispersal or recruitment rates. We found no impacts of wind power development on nest site selection, female reproductive effort or nesting success, or population numbers. Positive impacts of wind power development included an increase in female survival rates. We hypothesized that the unexpected increase in female survival was related to changes in trophic interactions and disruption of the foraging behavior of raptors that kill prairie chickens at lek site. 10. Research funding for this project included a grant from the 20% Wind by 2030 Program of the Department of Energy (this final report), and grants from the Kansas Department of Wildlife, Parks and Tourism, the National Fish and Wildlife Federation, and initial funding from the National Wind Coordinating Collaborative. Research products from data collected during the preconstruction period have included five peer-reviewed research articles and two PhD dissertations at Kansas State University. Additional manuscripts are in review for possible publication in 2013-2014.

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DOE OSTI2022

Probabilistic Cloud Optimized Day-Ahead Forecasting System Based on WRF-Solar (Final Report)

The most persistent challenge in both intraday and day-ahead solar forecasting is to get numerical weather prediction models to produce the right type of clouds with the right frequency at the right time and place. Another challenge is to understand and communicate the forecast uncertainty. The objective of this project was to develop an optimized ensemble-based solar irradiance forecasting system that will (1) demonstrably improve the current state-of-the-art solar forecasts from the deterministic Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar (WRF-Solar) model and (2) provide probabilistic forecasts for grid operations. This probabilistic solar forecasting system, referred to as the WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), aims to significantly enhance both the intraday and the day-ahead solar forecasting capability for grid operations. This technical report summarizes the work performed in the past 3 years through a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and the National Center for Atmospheric Research as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar Forecasting 2 program that aims to improve the accuracy of solar energy forecasts and enable increased deployment of solar energy on the electric grid.

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