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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Studying the Collective Functional Response of a Receptor in Alchemical Ligand Binding Free Energy Simulations with Accelerated Solvation Layer Dynamics

Ligand binding free energy simulations (LB-FES) that involve sampling of protein functional conformations have been longstanding challenges in research on molecular recognition. Particularly, modeling of the conformational transition pathway and design of the heuristic biasing mechanism are severe bottlenecks for the existing enhanced configurational sampling (ECS) methods. Inspired by the key role of hydration in regulating conformational dynamics of macromolecules, this report proposes a novel ECS approach that facilitates binding-associated structural dynamics by accelerated hydration transitions in combination with the lambda-exchange of free energy perturbation (FEP). Further, two challenging protein-ligand binding processes involving large configurational transitions of the receptor are studied, with hydration transitions at binding sites accelerated by Hamiltonian-simulated annealing of the hydration layer. Without the need for pathway analysis or ad hoc barrier flattening potential, LB-FES were performed with FEP/lambda-exchange molecular dynamics simulation at a minor overhead for annealing of the hydration layer. The LB-FES studies showed that the accelerated rehydration significantly enhances the collective conformational transitions of the receptor, and convergence of binding affinity calculations is obtained at a sweet-spot simulation time scale. Alchemical LB-FES with the proposed ECS strategy is free from the effort of trial and error for the setup and realizes efficient on-the-fly sampling for the collective functional response of the receptor and bound water and therefore presents a practical approach to high-throughput screening in drug discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DNA origami single crystals with Wulff shapes

DNA origami technology has proven to be an excellent tool for precisely manipulating molecules and colloidal elements in a three-dimensional manner. However, fabrication of single crystals with well-defined facets from highly programmable, complex DNA origami units is a great challenge. Here, we report the successful fabrication of DNA origami single crystals with Wulff shapes and high yield. By regulating the symmetries and binding modes of the DNA origami building blocks, the crystalline shapes can be designed and well-controlled. The single crystals are then used to induce precise growth of an ultrathin layer of silica on the edges, resulting in mechanically reinforced silica-DNA hybrid structures that preserve the details of the single crystals without distortion. The silica-infused microcrystals can be directly observed in the dry state, which allows meticulous analysis of the crystal facets and tomographic 3D reconstruction of the single crystals by high-resolution electron microscopy.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Cellulosic biofuel production using emulsified simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (eSSF) with conventional and thermotolerant yeasts

Abstract Background Future expansion of corn-derived ethanol raises concerns of sustainability and competition with the food industry. Therefore, cellulosic biofuels derived from agricultural waste and dedicated energy crops are necessary. To date, slow and incomplete saccharification as well as high enzyme costs have hindered the economic viability of cellulosic biofuels, and while approaches like simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) and the use of thermotolerant microorganisms can enhance production, further improvements are needed. Cellulosic emulsions have been shown to enhance saccharification by increasing enzyme contact with cellulose fibers. In this study, we use these emulsions to develop an emulsified SSF (eSSF) process for rapid and efficient cellulosic biofuel production and make a direct three-way comparison of ethanol production between S. cerevisiae , O. polymorpha , and K. marxianus in glucose and cellulosic media at different temperatures. Results In this work, we show that cellulosic emulsions hydrolyze rapidly at temperatures tolerable to yeast, reaching up to 40-fold higher conversion in the first hour compared to microcrystalline cellulose (MCC). To evaluate suitable conditions for the eSSF process, we explored the upper temperature limits for the thermotolerant yeasts Kluyveromyces marxianus and Ogataea polymorpha , as well as Saccharomyces cerevisiae , and observed robust fermentation at up to 46, 50, and 42 °C for each yeast, respectively. We show that the eSSF process reaches high ethanol titers in short processing times, and produces close to theoretical yields at temperatures as low as 30 °C. Finally, we demonstrate the transferability of the eSSF technology to other products by producing the advanced biofuel isobutanol in a light-controlled eSSF using optogenetic regulators, resulting in up to fourfold higher titers relative to MCC SSF. Conclusions The eSSF process addresses the main challenges of cellulosic biofuel production by increasing saccharification rate at temperatures tolerable to yeast. The rapid hydrolysis of these emulsions at low temperatures permits fermentation using non-thermotolerant yeasts, short processing times, low enzyme loads, and makes it possible to extend the process to chemicals other than ethanol, such as isobutanol. This transferability establishes the eSSF process as a platform for the sustainable production of biofuels and chemicals as a whole.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Regulating the Electron Distribution of Metal-Oxygen for Enhanced Oxygen Stability in Li-rich Layered Cathodes

Li-rich Mn-based layered oxides (LLO) hold great promise as cathode materials for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) due to their unique oxygen redox (OR) chemistry, which enables additional capacity. However, the LLOs face challenges related to the instability of their OR process due to the weak transition metal (TM)-oxygen bond, leading to oxygen loss and irreversible phase transition that results in severe capacity and voltage decay. Herein, a synergistic electronic regulation strategy of surface and interior structures to enhance oxygen stability is proposed. In the interior of the materials, the local electrons around TM and O atoms may be delocalized by surrounding Mo atoms, facilitating the formation of stronger TM—O bonds at high voltages. Besides, on the surface, the highly reactive O atoms with lone pairs of electrons are passivated by additional TM atoms, which provides a more stable TM—O framework. Hence, this strategy stabilizes the oxygen and hinders TM migration, which enhances the reversibility in structural evolution, leading to increased capacity and voltage retention. This work presents an efficient approach to enhance the performance of LLOs through surface-to-interior electronic structure modulation, while also contributing to a deeper understanding of their redox reaction.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

The PTPN2/PTPN1 inhibitor ABBV-CLS-484 unleashes potent anti-tumour immunity

Immune checkpoint blockade is effective for some patients with cancer, but most are refractory to current immunotherapies and new approaches are needed to overcome resistance. The protein tyrosine phosphatases PTPN2 and PTPN1 are central regulators of inflammation, and their genetic deletion in either tumour cells or immune cells promotes anti-tumour immunity. However, phosphatases are challenging drug targets; in particular, the active site has been considered undruggable. Here we present the discovery and characterization of ABBV-CLS-484 (AC484), a first-in-class, orally bioavailable, potent PTPN2 and PTPN1 active-site inhibitor. AC484 treatment in vitro amplifies the response to interferon and promotes the activation and function of several immune cell subsets. In mouse models of cancer resistant to PD-1 blockade, AC484 monotherapy generates potent anti-tumour immunity. We show that AC484 inflames the tumour microenvironment and promotes natural killer cell and CD8 + T cell function by enhancing JAK–STAT signalling and reducing T cell dysfunction. Inhibitors of PTPN2 and PTPN1 offer a promising new strategy for cancer immunotherapy and are currently being evaluated in patients with advanced solid tumours (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04777994). More broadly, our study shows that small-molecule inhibitors of key intracellular immune regulators can achieve efficacy comparable to or exceeding that of antibody-based immune checkpoint blockade in preclinical models. Finally, to our knowledge, AC484 represents the first active-site phosphatase inhibitor to enter clinical evaluation for cancer immunotherapy and may pave the way for additional therapeutics that target this important class of enzymes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

An automated and portable method for selecting an optimal GPU frequency

Power consumption poses a significant challenge in current and emerging graphics processing unit (GPU) enabled high-performance computing systems. In modern GPUs, dynamic voltage frequency scaling (DVFS) appears to be a reliable control to regulate power consumption and performance. However, the DVFS design space is large - hence, brute-force approaches are infeasible to select the optimal frequency. Furthermore, no single frequency can be universally optimal for applications with varying computational intensities. Thus, the application's complexity and the availability of a wide range of frequency settings are a challenge in selecting the optimal frequency configuration for a given GPU workload. To that end, this paper proposes a systematic approach that consists of three steps. The feature characterization study identifies the fine-grain GPU utilization metrics that influence the power consumption and execution time of a given workload. To understand the performance, power, and energy consumption behaviors of a workload across GPU's DVFS design space, we derived analytical power and performance models using the identified fine-grain features. Here, it is shown that the same set of GPU utilization metrics can estimate both the power consumption and execution time while being agnostic of changes to frequency and input sizes. Applying a power control with the single objective of reducing power may cause performance degradation, leading to more energy consumption. A multi-objective approach is proposed to select the optimal GPU DVFS configuration for a workload that reduces power consumption with negligible degradation in performance. The evaluation was conducted using SPEC ACCEL benchmarks and three real applications - NAMD LAMMPS, and LSTM on NVIDIA GV100, GA100, and AMD MI210 GPUs. On average, real applications showed 29.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 5.2% on GA100 and 22.6% energy savings with a performance loss of 4.7% on GV100. Moreover, the proposed models are portable to real applications, GPU architectures, and vendors, and require metric collection at only the default frequency rather than all supported DVFS configurations. Additionally, we conducted a comparison between our models and the GPU assembly instructions (PTX)-based static models. The results revealed a significant reduction in the average error rates, with a decrease from 19.7% to 3.1% for power models and from 29.4% to 5.2% for performance models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Overview of Behind-the-Meter Solar-Plus-Storage Program Design: With Considerations for India

Indian consumers have been deploying behind-the-meter generation (predominantly diesel backup, and, more recently, photovoltaic) and storage systems (predominantly lead-acid and other kinds of batteries as uninterrupted power supplies) by the millions for decades) to address reliability issues within the Indian power system. The same energy storage systems could provide additional services to the consumer and distribution companies if properly regulated and designed from the outset to be grid interactive. Grid-connected distributed solar PV (DPV), or rooftop solar, has also seen wide deployment in India and features prominently in the Government of India’s plans for a transition to clean, reliable, and affordable energy for all. At the same time, many utilities and state governments, as well as the central government in India are currently funding-constrained for both operational and future capital expenditures in the power sector, and some perceive customer-sited resources as exacerbating existing financial challenges. In that context, behind-the-meter energy storage systems paired with distributed photovoltaic (DPV) - with the capability to act as both generation and load - represent a potentially unique and disruptive power sector technology capable of providing a range of important services to customers, utilities, and the broader power system in India. This report aims to offer a comprehensive, evidence-based approach to designing customer programs based on experience in the United States that can help regulators, utilities, and policymakers in India manage the range of challenges and opportunities that increased behind-the-meter energy storage deployment will bring to the power system, in particular when these systems are paired with DPV.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Refinement of Objective Motion Cueing Criteria Investigation Based on Three Flight Tasks

The objective of this paper is to refine objective motion cueing criteria for commercial transport simulators based on pilots' performance in three flying tasks. Actuator hardware and software algorithms determine motion cues. Today, during a simulator qualification, engineers objectively evaluate only the hardware. Pilot inspectors subjectively assess the overall motion cueing system (i.e., hardware plus software); however, it is acknowledged that pinpointing any deficiencies that might arise to either hardware or software is challenging. ICAO 9625 has an Objective Motion Cueing Test (OMCT), which is now a required test in the FAA's part 60 regulations for new devices, evaluating the software and hardware together; however, it lacks accompanying fidelity criteria. Hosman has documented OMCT results for a statistical sample of eight simulators which is useful, but having validated criteria would be an improvement. In a previous experiment, we developed initial objective motion cueing criteria that this paper is trying to refine. Sinacori suggested simple criteria which are in reasonable agreement with much of the literature. These criteria often necessitate motion displacements greater than most training simulators can provide. While some of the previous work has used transport aircraft in their studies, the majority used fighter aircraft or helicopters. Those that used transport aircraft considered degraded flight characteristics. As a result, earlier criteria lean more towards being sufficient, rather than necessary, criteria for typical transport aircraft training applications. Considering the prevalence of 60-inch, six-legged hexapod training simulators, a relevant question is "what are the necessary criteria that can be used with the ICAO 9625 diagnostic?" This study adds to the literature as follows. First, it examines well-behaved transport aircraft characteristics, but in three challenging tasks. The tasks are equivalent to the ones used in our previous experiment, allowing us to directly compare the results and add to the previous data. Second, it uses the Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS), the world's largest vertical displacement simulator. This allows inclusion of relatively large motion conditions, much larger than a typical training simulator can provide. Six new motion configurations were used that explore the motion responses between the initial objective motion cueing boundaries found in a previous experiment and what current hexapod simulators typically provide. Finally, a sufficiently large pilot pool added statistical reliability to the results.

motion simulation↗

Statistical relationships across epigenomes using large-scale hierarchical clustering

Recent advances in genomics and sequencing platforms have revolutionized our ability to create immense data sets, particularly for studying epigenetic regulation of gene expression. However, the avalanche of epigenomic data is difficult to parse for biological interpretation given nonlinear complex patterns and relationships. This attractive challenge in epigenomic data lends itself to machine learning for discerning infectivity and susceptibility. In this study, we explore over 3000 epigenomes of uninfected individuals and provide a framework to characterize the relationships among epigenetic modifiers, their modifiers, genetic loci, and specific immune cell types across all chromosomes using hierarchical clustering. Hierarchical clustering of epigenomic data revealed consistent epigenetic patterns across chromosomes, demonstrating that variation due to epigenetic modifiers is greater than variation between cell types. Gene Ontology and KEGG pathway analyses indicated significant enrichment of genes involved in chromatin remodeling, mRNA splicing, immune responses, and the regulation of microRNAs and snoRNAs. Epigenetic modifiers frequently formed biologically relevant clusters, including the cohesin complex, RNA Polymerase II transcription factors, and PRC2 complex members. These clustering behaviors remained consistent across all chromosomes, supported by entropy analysis and high Adjusted Rand Index scores, indicating robust cross-chromosomal similarity. Co-occurrence analysis further revealed specific sets of modifiers that consistently appeared together within clusters, reflecting shared biological functions and interactions. Validation using another dataset confirmed the reproducibility of these clustering patterns and modifier co-occurrence relationships, underscoring the reliability and generalizability of the methodology.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A high-capacity Sn metal anode for aqueous acidic batteries

Aqueous acidic batteries as a good choice to respond battery diversity, delivering safety, cost, environmental friendliness and high-power necessary for renewable energy storage. However, the practical adoption is greatly challenged by low-voltage and energy density due to the inadequate metal anode materials. Here we report an interfacial regulated Sn metal anode as the solution of the last piece of the puzzle. In this study, the ease of recycling, low potential, fast redox kinetics, and high capacity of Sn perfectly fit the battery system, and the Sn metal shedding critical issue is successfully suppressed by promoting uniform deposition for added interaction from alloying. Consequently, this reversible Sn anode with 442 mAh g -1 matches well to different types of cathodes. The as-assembled acidic batteries also demonstrate sufficient output voltage (up to 1.7 V), energy density (up to 312 Wh kg -1 based on both electrodes), kinetics (up to 24 C) and stability (up to 2400 cycles).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Optimized In Situ Doping Strategy Stabling Single-Crystal Ultrahigh-Nickel Layered Cathode Materials

Single-crystal Ni-rich cathodes offer promising prospects in mitigating intergranular microcracks and side reaction issues commonly encountered in conventional polycrystalline cathodes. However, the utilization of micrometer-sized single-crystal particles has raised concerns about sluggish Li + diffusion kinetics and unfavorable structural degradation, particularly in high Ni content cathodes. Herein, we present an innovative in situ doping strategy to regulate the dominant growth of characteristic planes in the singlecrystal precursor, leading to enhanced mechanical properties and effectively tackling the challenges posed by ultrahigh-nickel layered cathodes. Compared with the traditional dry-doping method, our in situ doping approach possesses a more homogeneous and consistent modifying effect from the inside out, ensuring the uniform distribution of doping ions with large radius (Nb, Zr, W, etc). Further, this mitigates the generally unsatisfactory substitution effect, thereby minimizing undesirable coating layers induced by different solubilities during the calcination process. Additionally, the uniformly dispersed ions from this in situ doping are beneficial for alleviating the two-phase coexistence of H2/H3 and optimizing the Li + concentration gradient during cycling, thus inhibiting the formation of intragranular cracks and interfacial deterioration. Consequently, the in situ doped cathodes demonstrate exceptional cycle retention and rate performance under various harsh testing conditions. Our optimized in situ doping strategy not only expands the application prospects of elemental doping but also offers a promising research direction for developing high-energy-density single-crystal cathodes with extended lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Privacy Preserving Distributed Model Identification Algorithm for Power Distribution Systems

Distributed control/optimization is a promising approach for network systems due to its advantages over centralized schemes, such as robustness, cost-effectiveness, and improved privacy. However, distributed methods can have drawbacks, such as slower convergence rates due to limited knowledge of the overall network model. Additionally, ensuring privacy in the communication of sensitive information can pose implementation challenges. To address this issue, we propose a distributed model identification algorithm that enables each agent to identify the sub-model that characterizes the relationship between its local control and the overall system outputs. The proposed algorithm maintains the privacy of local agents by only communicating through dummy variables. We demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithm in the context of power distribution systems by applying it to the voltage regulation of a modified IEEE distribution system. The proposed algorithm is well-suited to the needs of power distribution controls and offers an effective solution to the challenges of distributed model identification in network systems.

data-driven modeling↗

Observing fish interactions with marine energy turbines using acoustic cameras

Abstract Marine current energy converters such as tidal and riverine turbines have the potential to provide reliable, clean power. The risk of collision of fishes with marine energy turbines is not yet well understood, in part due to the challenges associated with observing fish at turbine sites. Turbidity and light availability can limit the effectiveness of optical sensors like video cameras, motivating the use of acoustic cameras for this task. However, challenges persist in collecting and interpreting data acquired from acoustic cameras. Given the limited number of turbine deployments to date, it is prudent to draw on the application of acoustic cameras to monitor fish in other scenarios. This article synthesizes their use for other fisheries applications to inform best practices and set realistic expectations for the results of acoustic camera monitoring at turbine sites. We discuss six key tasks performed with acoustic cameras: detecting objects, identifying objects as fish, counting fish, measuring fish, classifying fish taxonomically and analysing fish behavior. Specific challenges to monitoring fish at turbine sites are discussed. This article is intended to serve as a reference for researchers, regulators and marine energy developers on effective use of acoustic cameras to monitor fish at turbine sites. The studies detailed in this article provide evidence that, in some scenarios, acoustic cameras can be used to inform the risk of fish collision with marine energy turbines but doing so requires careful study design and data processing.

Cotter, Emma↗

Developing stable, simplified, functional consortia from Brachypodium rhizosphere for microbial application in sustainable agriculture

The rhizosphere microbiome plays a crucial role in supporting plant productivity and ecosystem functioning by regulating nutrient cycling, soil integrity, and carbon storage. However, deciphering the intricate interplay between microbial relationships within the rhizosphere is challenging due to the overwhelming taxonomic and functional diversity. Here we present our systematic design framework built on microbial colocalization and microbial interaction, toward successful assembly of multiple rhizosphere-derived Reduced Complexity Consortia (RCC). We enriched co-localized microbes from Brachypodium roots grown in field soil with carbon substrates mimicking Brachypodium root exudates, generating 768 enrichments. By transferring the enrichments every 3 or 7 days for 10 generations, we developed both fast and slow-growing reduced complexity microbial communities. Most carbon substrates led to highly stable RCC just after a few transfers. 16S rRNA gene amplicon analysis revealed distinct community compositions based on inoculum and carbon source, with complex carbon enriching slow growing yet functionally important soil taxa like Acidobacteria and Verrucomicrobia. Network analysis showed that microbial consortia, whether differentiated by growth rate (fast vs. slow) or by succession (across generations), had significantly different network centralities. Besides, the keystone taxa identified within these networks belong to genera with plant growth-promoting traits, underscoring their critical function in shaping rhizospheric microbiome networks. Furthermore, tested consortia demonstrated high stability and reproducibility, assuring successful revival from glycerol stocks for long-term viability and use. Our study represents a significant step toward developing a framework for assembling rhizosphere consortia based on microbial colocalization and interaction, with future implications for sustainable agriculture and environmental management.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Making space nuclear power a reality

Our current space exploration missions are power limited. Space nuclear reactors could provide the power for both onboard electrical power and propulsion to enable a new generation of space science and exploration. Implementing a mission using a space nuclear reactor presents many technical challenges. However, nuclear technologies are safely and reliably used throughout U.S. industries and the Government. Well-defined processes and regulations currently exist for the use of nuclear technologies in space or any other application. These processes and regulations assure safe, reliable use of nuclear technology in a manner that protects the public and the environment. The question is not one of choosing between safety and space science, but of investing in a technology that includes rigorous processes and procedures to assure safe.

nuclear↗

Role of Remotely Sensed Observations and Computational Systems in Support of Decision-Making in Developing and Fragile States

The topics covered in this slide presentation are: (1) Post-war growth of U.S scientific enterprise, (2) Success of air quality regulations, (3) Complexity and coupled systems, (4) Advances in remote sensing technology, (5) Development planning in the 21stcentury, (5a) The challenge for policy maker and scientist, (5b) Decision-making science, (5c) Role of public-private partnerships.

Khan, Maudood↗

Control and Non-Payload Communications Generation 1 Prototype Radio Flight Test Report

Unmanned aircraft (UA) represent a new capability that will provide a variety of services in the Government (public) and commercial (civil) aviation sectors. The growth of this potential industry has not yet been realized because of the lack of a common understanding of what is required to safely operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the National Airspace System (UAS in the NAS). The desire and ability to fly UA is of increasing urgency. The application of UA to perform national security, defense, scientific, and emergency management are driving the critical need for less restrictive access by UA to the NAS. Existing Federal Aviation Regulations, procedures, and technologies do not allow routine UA access to the NAS. Access to the NAS is hampered by challenges such as the lack of an onboard pilot to see and avoid other aircraft; the ability of a single pilot or operator to control multiple UA; the reliance on command and control (C2) links; the altitudes, speeds, and duration at which the aircraft fly; and the wide variation in UA size and performance. NASA is working with other Government agencies to provide solutions that reduce technical barriers and make access to the NAS routine. This goal will be accomplished through system-level integration of key concepts, technologies, or procedures and through demonstrations of these integrated capabilities in an operationally relevant environment. This project provides an opportunity to transition the acquired empirical data and knowledge to the Federal Aviation Administration and other stakeholders to help them define the requirements for routine UA access to the NAS.Radio communications channels for UA are currently managed through exceptions and use either Department of Defense frequencies for line-of-sight (LOS) and satellite-based communications links, low-power LOS links in amateur bands, or unlicensed Industrial/Scientific/Medical (ISM) frequencies. None of these frequency bands are designated for safety and regularity of flight. Only recently has radiofrequency (RF) spectrum been allocated by the International Telecommunications Union specifically for commercial UA C2, LOS communication (L-Band: 960 to 1164 MHz, and C-Band: 5030 to 5091 MHz). The safe and efficient integration of UA into the NAS requires the use of protected RF spectrum allocations and a new data communications system that is both secure and scalable to accommodate the potential growth of these new aircraft. Data communications for UA-referred to as control and non-payload communications (CNPC)-will be used to exchange information between a UA and a ground station (GS) to ensure safe, reliable, and effective UA flight operation. The focus of this effort is on validating and allocating new RF spectrum and data link communications to enable civil UA integration into the NAS. Through a cost-sharing cooperative agreement with Rockwell Collins, Inc., the NASA Glenn Research Center is exploring and performing the necessary development steps to realize a prototype UA CNPC system. These activities include investigating signal waveforms and access techniques, developing representative CNPC radio hardware, and executing relevant testing and validation activities. There is no intent to manufacture the CNPC end product, rather the goals are to study, demonstrate, and validate a typical CNPC system that will allow safe and efficient communications within the L-Band and C-Band spectrum allocations. The system is addressing initial "seed" requirements from RTCA, Inc., Special Committee 203 (SC-203) and is on a path to Federal Aviation Administration certification. This report provides results from the flight testing campaign of the Rockwell Collins Generation 1 prototype radio, referred hereafter as the "radio." The radio sets operate within the 960- to 977-MHz frequency band with both air and ground radios using identical hardware. Flight tests involved one aircraft and one GS. Results include discussion of aircraft flight paths and associated radio performance.

Shalkhauser, Kurt A.↗

Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach

The recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency's surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ) forecasters responsible for ozone MDA8 forecasts. The forecasters, supplied by only a few AQ model products, end up relying heavily on self-developed tools. To help U.S. AQ forecasters, this study explores a surface ozone MDA8 forecasting tool that is based solely on statistical methods and standard meteorological variables from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The model combines the self-organizing map (SOM), which is a clustering technique, with a step wise weighted quadratic regression using meteorological variables as predictors for ozone MDA8. The SOM method identifies different weather regimes, to distinguish between various modes of ozone variability, and groups them according to similarity. In this way, when a regression is developed for a specific regime, data from the other regimes are also used, with weights that are based on their similarity to this specific regime. This approach, regression in SOM (REGiS), yields a distinct model for each regime taking into account both the training cases for that regime and other similar training cases. To produce probabilistic MDA8 ozone forecasts, REGiS weighs and combines all of the developed regression models on the basis of the weather patterns predicted by an NWP model. REGiS is evaluated over the San Joaquin Valley in California and the northeastern plains of Colorado. The results suggest that the model performs best when trained and adjusted separately for an individual AQ station and its corresponding meteorological site.

Ozone variables↗