Collecting Human Reliability Data Using a Simplified Simulator (Part II)
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99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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An Experimental Investigation of Students? Learning Effects When Using a Simplified Nuclear Simulator
This study focuses on investigating students' learning effects and performance trends over a certain period using the Rancor Microworld Simulator. Specifically, it aims to determine the training required to collect HRA data from non-experts (i.e., students) using Rancor Microworld and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators. A longitudinal experiment is conducted with sixteen undergraduate students, using four Rancor Microworld scenarios in each of the four experiment trials. The study considers four human performance measurements workload, situation awareness, time, and error. Finally, the trend of students' performance is compared with operator data collected from the previous experiment. Overall, this research complements previous studies by providing insights into how much training is required to collect HRA data from non-experts and the differences in human performance measures between students and professional operators.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Comparison of Human Performance between Operators and Students Using Rancor Microworld Simulator: A Preliminary Result
This paper describes an experiment using the Rancor Microworld simulator to probe into differences in human performance between students and actual operators. Six human performance measures – 1) time, 2) error, 3) workload, 4) situational awareness, 5) attention patterns, and 6) number of manipulations – are measured from experiments. The experiment has been conducted for 11 operators and 20 students so far. More experiments and analyses will be continued. Further experimental studies using Rancor Microworld are expected to be able to collect additional data that may be missing from full-scope studies and contribute to items that can support human reliability data.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Grid Enhancing Technologies Modeling Methodology: Telos Approach
Grid Enhancing Technologies Modeling Methodology Introduction -Grid Enhancing Technology -PLEXOS and TARA Modeling Methodology Overview -PLEXOS/TARA agreement -Flowgate identification -DLR and PFC Location Identification Key Lessons Learned and Possible Improvements
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Rapid Detection of Anomalies in Battery Energy Storage System Data
Data analytics is pivotal in assessing the technical characteristics and performance of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS), underpinning BESS modeling, optimization, and control. However, raw datasets frequently harbor anomalies from measurement errors and equipment malfunctions, impacting BESS reliability and analysis accuracy To address the challenge, this paper presents a novel methodology for the rapid detection of anomalous charge or discharge cycles within BESS operational data, expediting the cleaning process while ensuring data integrity. We’ve collected diverse and comprehensive real-world BESS operational datasets in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute and multiple Washington State utilities. These datasets serve dual roles: enabling comprehensive data exploration and analysis for understanding underlying challenges and method development, while also acting as a vital validation resource, demonstrating practical effectiveness. The proposed method detects anomalies and aids in their resolution, improving system performance characterization precision. It also reveals recurring data anomaly sources, offering insights for data collection and handling enhancement. Practitioners can gain valuable insights from the identified anomalous cycles in the real-world datasets along with the investigative process for root cause analyses and essential data cleaning steps.
Crawford, Aladsair J.↗
Approach for Inferring Full-Scope Human Reliability Data Based on Simplified Simulator Data
This paper proposes a method for inferring full-scope human reliability data based on the Simplified Human Error Experimental Program (SHEEP) data. It mainly focuses on the human errors observed when using simulators with different complexity levels. In the proposed method, the manner in which human error probabilities (HEPs) change as a result of increasing simulator complexity and how simulator complexity levels are quantified represent key information for inferring full-scope data. In the present study, SHEEP error data pertaining to actual professional operators using Rancor Microworld (Rancor) (i.e., a more simplified simulator) and Compact Nuclear Simulator (CNS) (i.e., a less simplified simulator) were compared with the HuREX error data. An approach to quantifying simulator complexity levels was then proposed based on information theory and acquired eye-tracker data.
99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Identifying Downtime Sources in CEBAF SRF Linac Systems for Improving Its Reliability
In this work, we will present some recent analysis of the reliability statistics of the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Based on the data collected by the existing Down Time Manager (DTM), the year-to-year downtime evolution trend of linac zones over the six-year period from FY18 to FY23 is established. An in-depth downtime analysis at a resolution beyond the linac zone level was carried out by introducing a new system hierarchy, consisting of the SRF linac sub-systems and components. This new paradigm was implemented in a pilot downtime study over the two-month period of CEBAF operation from 9/13/23 to 11/13/23, enabling localization of the responsible sub-systems (SRF, HPRF, LLRF, Beamline vacuum, Cryogenics, etc.) and hardware components (cavity, tuner, RF coupler, etc.) in the CEBAF SRF linac systems. Pinpointing downtime sources over long operation periods at the sub-systems and component levels holds the key to improving the CEBAF SRF systems reliability. It also helps identify areas of SRF technology development needed by future high-power high-reliability CW SRF linacs.
Hryhorenko, Oleksandr↗
Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants
The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Reliability-Informed Life-Cycle Warranty Cost Analysis: A Case Study on a Transmission in Agricultural Equipment
In agricultural and industrial equipment, both new and remanufactured systems are often available for warranty coverage. In such cases, it may be challenging for equipment manufacturers to properly trade-off between the system reliability and the cost associated with a replacement option (e.g., replace with a new or remanufactured system). To address this problem, we present a reliability-informed life-cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis framework that enables equipment manufacturers to evaluate different warranty policies. These warranty policies differ in whether a new or remanufactured system is used for replacement in the case of product failure. The novelty of this LCWC analysis framework lies in its ability to incorporate real-world field reliability data into warranty policy assessment using probabilistic warranty cost models that consider multiple life cycles. First, the reliability functions for the new and remanufactured systems are built as the time-to-failure distributions that provide the best-fit to the field reliability data. Then, these reliability functions and their corresponding warranty policies are used to build the LCWC models according to the specific warranty terms. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate the time-to-failure uncertainty of each system, modeled by its reliability function, through each LCWC model to produce a probability distribution of the LCWC. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability-informed LCWC analysis framework is demonstrated with a real-world case study on a transmission used in some agricultural equipment.
agricultural equipment↗
Improving Component Reliability Through Performance and Condition Monitoring Data Analysis; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)
This presentation discusses wind turbine gearbox reliability and the causes of and methods for preventing gearbox failures through condition monitoring.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Reliability Study: On-Site Electrical System, 1998-2015
This report documents an analysis of the reliability of on-site electrical systems at U.S. commercial nuclear plants during the period 1998-2015. The study contains both individual component studies and system studies. The component studies are focused on key electrical components including circuit breakers, battery chargers, buses, batteries, and transformers. Data from the range of 1998 to 2015 were gathered, reviewed, and statistically evaluated for impacts on reliability as a function of relevant parameters: manufacturer, system, operating environment, inspection/testing regimen, operating range (voltages, amperes), setpoints, and other factors. The system studies identify seven operating nuclear power plants/units that represent different designs of offsite power sources and interconnecting power circuit paths, develop electrical single line diagrams and detailed fault tree models for the representing designs, and evaluate the electrical system reliability using the reliability data obtained from the component studies.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
Chapter 15: Reliability of Wind Turbines
The global wind industry has witnessed exciting developments in recent years. The future will be even brighter with further reductions in capital and operation and maintenance costs, which can be accomplished with improved turbine reliability, especially when turbines are installed offshore. One opportunity for the industry to improve wind turbine reliability is through the exploration of reliability engineering life data analysis based on readily available data or maintenance records collected at typical wind plants. If adopted and conducted appropriately, these analyses can quickly save operation and maintenance costs in a potentially impactful manner. This chapter discusses wind turbine reliability by highlighting the methodology of reliability engineering life data analysis. It first briefly discusses fundamentals for wind turbine reliability and the current industry status. Then, the reliability engineering method for life analysis, including data collection, model development, and forecasting, is presented in detail and illustrated through two case studies. The chapter concludes with some remarks on potential opportunities to improve wind turbine reliability. An owner and operator's perspective is taken and mechanical components are used to exemplify the potential benefits of reliability engineering analysis to improve wind turbine reliability and availability.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Continuous Reliability Enhancement for Wind (CREW). Program Update
Sandia's Continuous Reliability Enhancement for Wind (CREW) Program is a follow on project to the Wind Plant Reliability Database and Analysis Program. The goal of CREW is to characterize the reliability performance of the US fleet to serve as a basis for improved reliability and increased availability of turbines. This document states the objectives of CREW and describes how data collected for CREW will be used in analysis. A critical aspect to the success of the CREW project is data input from participating owner/operators. The level of detail and the quality of input data provided dictates the type of analysis that can be accomplished. Options for analysis range from high level availability summaries to detailed analysis of failure modes for individual equipment items. Specific types of input data are identified followed by samples of the type of output that can be expected along with a discussion of benefits to the user community.
17 WIND ENERGY↗
Reliability-Informed Life Cycle Warranty Cost and Life Cycle Analysis of Newly Manufactured and Remanufactured Units
Standard life cycle techniques such as life cycle warranty cost (LCWC) analysis and life cycle analysis (LCA) are used to respectively quantify the relative economical and environmental advantages of remanufactured goods while simultaneously identifying avenues for improvement. In this paper, we contribute to the literature on life cycle studies by incorporating reliability into LCWC analysis and LCA with the goal of improving long-term/multiple life cycle decision making. We develop a branched power-law model to incorporate the physical degradation mechanisms leading to reduced reuse rates of system parts over multiple life cycles. We then follow a standard LCA protocol to quantify the difference between a new unit and its remanufactured version in terms of environmental impact items such as abiotic depletion potential, global warming potential, and energy consumption. We then devise four practical warranty policies that vary in the choice of replacement and/or provision for extended warranty. All possible replacement scenarios for multiple life cycles are explored for each policy and a mathematically rigorous framework is provided, where the reliability information is used to calculate probabilistic LCWC and life cycle impact items. This reliability-informed LCWC analysis and LCA framework enables design engineers to compare design options and warranty policies by quantifying both economical and environmental impacts to aid in decision making. Although the framework is presented in a general form applicable to any engineered system, we demonstrate the utility of this framework by using a case study of an infinitely variable transmission used in agricultural equipment.
42 ENGINEERING↗
A joint probability approach for coincidental flood frequency analysis at ungauged basin confluences
A reliable and accurate flood frequency analysis at the confluence of streams is of importance. Given that long-term peak flow observations are often unavailable at tributary confluences, at a practical level, this paper presents a joint probability approach (JPA) to address the coincidental flood frequency analysis at the ungauged confluence of two streams based on the flow rate data from the upstream tributaries. One case study is performed for comparison against several traditional approaches, including the position-plotting formula, the univariate flood frequency analysis, and the National Flood Frequency Program developed by US Geological Survey. It shows that the results generated by the JPA approach agree well with the floods estimated by the plotting position and univariate flood frequency analysis based on the observation data.
confluence point↗
OzDES reverberation mapping program: Lag recovery reliability for 6-yr C iv analysis
ABSTRACT We present the statistical methods that have been developed to analyse the OzDES reverberation mapping sample. To perform this statistical analysis we have created a suite of customizable simulations that mimic the characteristics of each source in the OzDES sample. These characteristics include: the variability in the photometric and spectroscopic light curves, the measurement uncertainties, and the observational cadence. By simulating the sources in the OzDES sample that contain the C iv emission line, we developed a set of criteria that rank the reliability of a recovered time-lag depending on the agreement between different recovery methods, the magnitude of the uncertainties, and the rate at which false positives were found in the simulations. These criteria were applied to simulated light curves and these results used to estimate the quality of the resulting Radius–Luminosity relation. We grade the results using three quality levels (gold, silver, and bronze). The input slope of the R–L relation was recovered within 1σ for each of the three quality samples, with the gold standard having the lowest dispersion with a recovered a R–L relation slope of 0.454 ± 0.016 with an input slope of 0.47. Future work will apply these methods to the entire OzDES sample of 771 AGN.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Modeling Framework to Analyze Performance and Structural Reliability of Solid Oxide Electrolysis Cells
Solid oxide electrolysis cells (SOEC) have been receiving significant attention recently because of their high energy efficiency and fast hydrogen production. In this study a multi-physics model to simulate the SOEC performance and structural reliability of a state-of-the-art planar SOEC design was developed. The electrochemical reactions, fluid dynamics, species transport, electron transfer, and heat transfer were modeled in the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software STAR-CCM+. The thermomechanical analysis and the associated structural reliability evaluations were conducted using the commercial finite element analysis software ANSYS. The electrochemistry model was validated by using the experimentally obtained current-voltage (I-V) characteristics of the electrode-supported SOECs. The reliability analysis using a risk-of-rupture approach showed low failure probabilities under standard operating conditions considered in this study. For cells operated at voltages well above a thermoneutral voltage, the reliability evaluations indicated a potential risk of cell failure, but the damage was concentrated locally in specific areas of the cell which typically do not lead to total loss of cell function. The presented approach provides insights for evaluating representative cell and stack performances and structural reliability without intensive testing and for developing optimally performing and structurally reliable SOECs for efficient hydrogen generation.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
Thermal Modeling and Simulation of the Packed-bed Thermal Energy Storage Combined with INL Thermal Energy Distribution System
Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Lab (DETAIL) at Idaho National Laboratory is to support experimental demonstration and validation research on Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy System [1]. The Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) is a thermal-hydraulic flow loop in DETAIL with its own dedicated control system to support the integration of co-located multiple experimental systems, where a packed-bed thermal energy storage (TES) is installed as a thermal buffer and storage unit. Among various TES options, the packed-bed TES is adopted in TEDS because it offers a low-cost single-tank thermal storage option compared to the traditional two-tank TES. However, since the TES tank is filled with granular fillers having different thermophysical properties from those of TES tank wall, there is a potential thermo-mechanical issue to be carefully addressed like thermal ratcheting which may pose a significant design concern for the packed-bed TES tank. Thermal ratcheting is a thermomechanical process caused by the repeated rearrangement of granular filler inside a TES tank during continuous thermal cycling operation of the packed-bed TES system. If the thermally induced stress exceeds the yield strength of a TES tank wall, catastrophic consequences may happen like rupture of the TES tank. Thus, it is important to understand the phenomenon to ensure the robust operation of the packed-bed TES tank. Given that thermal ratcheting is caused by complex interaction of thermal transport in the porous bed and solid mechanics, the accurate prediction of transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES tank, which is the focus of this paper, is critical to the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis. This paper discusses the numerical modeling, simulation, and validation studies that are ongoing at INL to investigate the transient thermal behavior of the packed-bed TES. Of particular concern is the transient thermal process occurring in the packed-bed TES unit that is operated in conjunction with the INL TEDS. The main goal of this research is three-fold: (i) provide preliminary insights into the transient thermal behavior of the TEDS TES tank, (ii) support the thermal measurement and validation plan for TEDS experiment, and (iii) provide transient thermal boundary conditions to support the reliable thermal ratcheting analysis of the TEDS TES tank. For the transient thermal modeling and analysis, a CFD model was developed, and the validity of the modeling approach was examined via comparing the numerical simulation results with the experimental data obtained from various design characteristics of packed-bed TES tanks. Then, the present modeling method was applied for the transient thermal analysis of the TEDS TES tank, and the results are discussed along with the potential improvement of data acquisition strategy for the future TEDS experiments for more precise validation study.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗