Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Reliability Prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of collisionality on turbulence in the edge of tokamak plasma using 3D global simulations

Collisionality is one of the key parameters in determining turbulent transport in the plasma edge, regulating phenomena such as 'shoulder formation', separation of scale lengths in the scrape-off layer (SOL), turbulence damping and zonal flow dynamics. Understanding its role is therefore of primary importance for future reactors like ITER. Getting reliable predictions and a better characterization of plasma flow properties when varying collisionality remains, however, a critical challenge for the simulations. This paper focuses on the impact of varying collisionality in a non-isothermal three-dimensional fluid model of the plasma edge. A high field side limited configuration encompassing open and closed magnetic field lines with parameters typical of a medium-sized tokamak is considered. The present model can consistently account for the variations of collisionality and its impact on both the parallel resistivity η ∥ and the ion and electron parallel thermal conductivities χ ∥e,i . Details on mean flow and turbulence properties are given. Changing collisionality leads to significant changes in the flow properties both on the mean and fluctuating quantities. In particular, lowering collisionality decreases the size of coherent structures, the fluctuation levels of turbulence, and steepens the density and temperature equilibrium profiles around the separatrix leading to a global reduction of the turbulent transport. The SOL width is observed to increase with collisionality, eventually resulting in the disappearance of the scale lengths separation between near and far SOL, consistently with previous experimental observations. At low collisionality, where the presence of narrow feature is well-established, a contribution of heat conduction increases up to compete with heat convection.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Turbulent drifts of impurity ions as an explanation for anomalous radial transport in the far-SOL of DIII-D

Abstract Successful fusion reactor operation relies on minimal core contamination by impurities, otherwise too much power may be radiated and harm performance. This requires reliable predictions of impurity transport from the scrape-off layer (SOL) into the core, beyond the traditional ‘anomalous’ diffusion approach. We report a set of far-SOL tungsten transport simulations that demonstrate the role of turbulent drifts on radial impurity transport. A turbulent plasma background is simulated using the gyrokinetic SOL code Gkeyll. Tungsten ions are followed within the plasma background using only their drifts. We find that tungsten tends to travel radially outwards with velocities between v r = 300–1200 m s −1 primarily due to polarization drift. We also extract an anomalous radial diffusion coefficient that varies from D r anom = 5–20 m 2 s −1 . These results are compared to and agree with previous interpretive modeling results. We also show how the turbulent polarization drift can transport some tungsten ions from the wall inwards with effective pinch velocities up to 10 000 m s −1 . We conclude that turbulent drifts are a likely explanation for historically anomalous radial impurity transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dependence of divertor turbulence on plasma density and current in TCV

To reliably predict the distribution of heat and particle fluxes at the target plates of tokamaks, a comprehensive understanding of turbulence throughout the entire Scrape-Off-Layer (SOL) is imperative. This study examines divertor turbulence systematically across a broad parameter range on the TCV tokamak, including variations in magnetic field direction, plasma current I p ∈ [140,320] kA, edge safety factor q 95 ∈ [2.6,4.7] and Greenwald fraction f G ∈ [0.18,0.6]. The TCV X-point Gas Puff Imaging (GPI) system is used to measure 2D filament properties in the inner and outer divertor region. The fluctuation levels in the divertor are found to strongly increase with density (to 80% over most of the SOL) while remaining insensitive to I p . The previously identified divertor-localized filaments (DLF), located on the bad curvature side of the outer divertor leg, are found to be a common feature on TCV, while no filaments are observed in the PFR. DLFs are present over most of the parameter space and in both field directions. However, they are absent, or appear only closer to the target, for sufficiently large Λ div ≳ 10 or q 95 ≳ 3.7. Across both I p and f G scans, some clear trends with Λ div are found for divertor filament sizes and velocities, and with target fall-off lengths of density and heat flux profiles at the outer target. This study provides important experimental insights to turbulent transport in the divertor also for comparison with self-consistent, turbulence simulations and extrapolation to future reactor conditions.

cross-field transport↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Monte Carlo simulation of the Borexino detector

Borexino is a 300 ton sub-MeV liquid scintillator solar neutrino detector which has been running at the Laboratori Nazionali del Gran Sasso (Italy) since 2007. Thanks to its unprecedented radio-purity, it was able to measure the flux of 7 Be, 8 B, pp, and pep solar neutrinos and to detect geo-neutrinos. A reliable simulation of the detector is an invaluable tool for all Borexino physics analyses. The simulation accounts for the energy loss of particles in all the detector components, the generation of the scintillation photons, their propagation within the liquid scintillator volume, and a detailed simulation of the electronics chain. A novel efficient method for simulating the external background which survives the Borexino passive shield was developed. This technique allows to reliably predict the effect of the contamination in the peripheral construction materials. The techniques developed to simulate the Borexino detector and their level of refinement are of possible interest to the neutrino and dark matter communities, especially for current and future large-volume liquid scintillator experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enabling robust offline active learning for machine learning potentials using simple physics-based priors

Abstract Machine learning surrogate models for quantum mechanical simulations have enabled the field to efficiently and accurately study material and molecular systems. Developed models typically rely on a substantial amount of data to make reliable predictions of the potential energy landscape or careful active learning (AL) and uncertainty estimates. When starting with small datasets, convergence of AL approaches is a major outstanding challenge which has limited most demonstrations to online AL. In this work we demonstrate a Δ-machine learning (ML) approach that enables stable convergence in offline AL strategies by avoiding unphysical configurations with initial datasets as little as a single data point. We demonstrate our framework’s capabilities on a structural relaxation, transition state calculation, and molecular dynamics simulation, with the number of first principle calculations being cut down anywhere from 70%–90%. The approach is incorporated and developed alongside AMP torch , an open-source ML potential package, along with interactive Google Colab notebook examples.

Shuaibi, Muhammed↗
DOE OSTI2022

Lyman alpha and Lyman continuum emission of Mg Ⅱ -selected star-forming galaxies

We present observations with the Cosmic Origins Spectrograph onboard the Hubble Space Telescope of seven compact low-mass star-forming galaxies at redshifts, z, in the range 0.3161–0.4276, with various O 3 Mg 2 = [O iii] λ5007/Mg ii λ2796+2803 and Mg 2 = Mg ii λ2796/Mg ii λ2803 emission-line ratios. We aim to study the dependence of leaking Lyman continuum (LyC) emission on the characteristics of Mg ii emission together with the dependencies on other indirect indicators of escaping ionizing radiation. LyC emission with escape fractions f esc (LyC) = 3.1–4.6 percent is detected in four galaxies, whereas only 1σ upper limits of f esc (LyC) in the remaining three galaxies were derived. A strong narrow Lyα emission line with two peaks separated by V sep ~ 298–592 km s -1 was observed in four galaxies with detected LyC emission and very weak Lyα emission is observed in galaxies with LyC non-detections. Our new data confirm the tight anticorrelation between f esc (LyC) and V sep found for previous low-redshift galaxy samples. V sep remains the best indirect indicator of LyC leakage among all considered indicators. It is found that escaping LyC emission is detected predominantly in galaxies with Mg 2 ≳ 1.3. A tendency of an increase of f esc (LyC) with increasing of both the O 3 Mg 2 and Mg 2 is possibly present. However, there is substantial scatter in these relations not allowing their use for reliable prediction of f esc (LyC).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kingdom-Wide Analysis of Fungal Protein-Coding and tRNA Genes Reveals Conserved Patterns of Adaptive Evolution

Protein-coding genes evolved codon usage bias due to the combined but uneven effects of adaptive and nonadaptive influences. Studies in model fungi agree on codon usage bias as an adaptation for fine-tuning gene expression levels; however, such knowledge is lacking for most other fungi. Our comparative genomics analysis of over 450 species supports codon usage and transfer RNAs (tRNAs) as coadapted for translation speed and this is most likely a realization of convergent evolution. Rather than drift, phylogenetic reconstruction inferred adaptive radiation as the best explanation for the variation of interspecific codon usage bias. Although the phylogenetic signals for individual codon and tRNAs frequencies are lower than expected by genetic drift, we found remarkable conservation of highly expressed genes being codon optimized for translation by the most abundant tRNAs, especially by inosine-modified tRNAs. As an application, we present a sequence-to-expression neural network that uses codons to reliably predict highly expressed transcripts. The kingdom Fungi, with over a million species, includes many key players in various ecosystems and good targets for biotechnology. Collectively, our results have implications for better understanding the evolutionary success of fungi, as well as informing the biosynthetic manipulation of fungal genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Drug-induced kidney injury: challenges and opportunities

Abstract Drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI) is a frequently reported adverse event, associated with acute kidney injury, chronic kidney disease, and end-stage renal failure. Prospective cohort studies on acute injuries suggest a frequency of around 14%–26% in adult populations and a significant concern in pediatrics with a frequency of 16% being attributed to a drug. In drug discovery and development, renal injury accounts for 8 and 9% of preclinical and clinical failures, respectively, impacting multiple therapeutic areas. Currently, the standard biomarkers for identifying DIKI are serum creatinine and blood urea nitrogen. However, both markers lack the sensitivity and specificity to detect nephrotoxicity prior to a significant loss of renal function. Consequently, there is a pressing need for the development of alternative methods to reliably predict drug-induced kidney injury (DIKI) in early drug discovery. In this article, we discuss various aspects of DIKI and how it is assessed in preclinical models and in the clinical setting, including the challenges posed by translating animal data to humans. We then examine the urinary biomarkers accepted by both the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the European Medicines Agency for monitoring DIKI in preclinical studies and on a case-by-case basis in clinical trials. We also review new approach methodologies (NAMs) and how they may assist in developing novel biomarkers for DIKI that can be used earlier in drug discovery and development.

Connor, Skylar (ORCID:0000000233479180)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compact representation and long-time extrapolation of real-time data for quantum systems using the ESPRIT algorithm

Representing real-time data as a sum of complex exponentials provides a compact form that enables both denoising and extrapolation. As a fully data-driven method, the Estimation of Signal Parameters via Rotational Invariance Techniques (ESPRIT) algorithm is agnostic to the underlying physical equations, making it broadly applicable to various observables and experimental or numerical setups. In this work, we consider applications of the ESPRIT algorithm primarily to extend real-time dynamical data from simulations of quantum systems. We evaluate ESPRIT's performance in the presence of noise and compare it to other extrapolation methods. We demonstrate its ability to extract information from short-time dynamics to reliably predict long-time behavior and determine the minimum time interval required for accurate results. We discuss how this insight can be leveraged in numerical methods that propagate quantum systems in time, and we show how ESPRIT can predict infinite-time values of dynamical observables, offering a purely data-driven approach to characterizing quantum phases.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2025

Weak-charge radius of 40 Ar: From CREX constraints to CE⁢𝜈⁢NS sensitivity

Despite significant theoretical efforts, the CREX-PREX dilemma remains unresolved, preventing the reliable prediction of neutron (or weak-charge) radii that, besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure interest, often serve to quantify the impact of nuclear uncertainties in searches for new physics. Coherent elastic neutrino-nucleus scattering is a clean and attractive portal to new physics, whose sensitivity may be impacted by such nuclear uncertainties. In this paper I use CREX as the basis, together with a strong calcium-argon correlation, to provide a robust baseline for the weak radius of 40 Ar : 𝑅$^{40}_{wk}$ = 3.452 ± 0.028 (stat) ± 0.022 (syst) fm. Here, the weak radius of argon is an observable, highly relevant to ongoing and future liquid-argon campaigns, that encodes the loss of coherence at small momentum transfers.

39 ≤ A ≤ 58↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of octupole collectivity near the A = 72 shape-transitional point

Enhanced octupole collectivity is expected in the neutron-deficient Ge, Se and Kr isotopes with neutron number N ≈ 40 and has indeed been observed for 70,72 Ge. Shape coexistence and configuration mixing are, however, a notorious challenge for theoretical models trying to reliably predict octupole collectivity in this mass region, which is known to feature rapid shape changes with changing nucleon number and spin of the system. To further investigate the microscopic configurations causing the prolate-oblate-triaxial shape transition at A ≈ 72 and their influence on octupole collectivity, the rare isotopes 72 Se and 74,76 Kr were studied via inelastic proton scattering in inverse kinematics. While significantly enhanced octupole strength of ≈32 Weisskopf units (W.u.) was observed for 72 Se, only strengths of ≈15 W.u. were observed for 74,76 Kr. In combination with existing data, the new data clearly question a simple origin of enhanced octupole strengths around N = 40. Furthermore, the present work establishes two regions of distinct octupole strengths with a sudden strength increase around the A = 72 shape transitional point.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Isospin composition of fission barriers

We employ a microscopic method to study how isospin affects the fission potential of 240 Pu. Our approach uses constrained Hartree-Fock theory (CHF) which allows us to separately investigate the isoscalar and isovector properties of the nuclear energy density functional (EDF). By analyzing the isoscalar and isovector components of the EDF along the fission path we can assess the isovector contribution to fission barriers. Here, we study this effect for the fully adiabatic path to scission. The isovector component of the fission potential is found to increase in magnitude as the nucleus evolves towards scission, exemplifying the importance of stringent constraints on the isovector sector of the nuclear EDF for reliable predictions of fission properties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Phononic Helical Nodal Lines with PT Protection in MoB 2

While condensed matter systems host both fermionic and bosonic quasiparticles, reliably predicting and empirically verifying topological states is only mature for Fermionic electronic structures, leaving topological Bosonic excitations sporadically explored. This is unfortunate, as Bosonic systems such as phonons offer the opportunity to assess spinless band structures where nodal lines can be realized without invoking special additional symetries to protect against spin-orbit coupling. Here we combine first-principles calculations and meV-resolution inelastic x-ray scattering to demonstrate the first realization of parity-time reversal symmetry protected helical nodal lines in the phonon spectrum of MoB 2 . This structure is unique to phononic systems as the spin-orbit coupling present in electronic systems tends to lift the degeneracy away from high-symmetry locations. Our study establishes a protocol to accurately identify topological Bosonic excitations, opening a new route to explore exotic topological states in crystalline materials.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

Phonon Screening of Excitons in Semiconductors: Halide Perovskites and Beyond

The ab initio Bethe-Salpeter equation (BSE) approach, an established method for the study of excitons in materials, is typically solved in a limit where only static screening from electrons is captured. Here, we generalize this framework to include dynamical screening from phonons at lowest order in the electron-phonon interaction. We apply this generalized BSE approach to a series of inorganic lead halide perovskites, CsPbX 3 , with X=Cl, Br, and I. We find that inclusion of screening from phonons significantly reduces the computed exciton binding energies of these systems. By deriving a simple expression for phonon screening effects, we reveal general trends for their importance in semiconductors and insulators, based on a hydrogenic exciton model. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the phonon screening correction in isotropic materials can be reliably predicted using four material specific parameters: the reduced effective mass, static and optical dielectric constants, and frequency of the most strongly coupled longitudinal-optical phonon mode. Finally, this framework helps to elucidate the importance of phonon screening and its relation to excitonic properties in a broad class of semiconductors.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2021

CrI 3 revisited with a many-body ab initio theoretical approach

CrI 3 has recently been shown to exhibit low-dimensional, long-range magnetic ordering from few layers to single layers of CrI 3 . The properties of CrI 3 bulk and few layered systems are uniquely defined by a combination of short-range intralayer and long-range interlayer interactions; including strong correlations, exchange and spin orbit coupling. Unfortunately, both the long-range van der Waals interactions, which are driven by dynamic, many-body electronic correlations and the competing strong intralayer correlations, present a formidable challenging for the local or semi local mean-field approximations employed in workhorse electronic structure approaches like density functional theory. In this work, we employ a sophisticated many-body approach that can simultaneously describe long- and short-range correlations. Herein, we establish that the fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo (FNDMC) method reproduces the experimental interlayer separation distance of bulk CrI 3 for the high-temperature, monoclinic phase, with a reliable prediction of the interlayer binding energy. We subsequently employed, the FNDMC results to benchmark the accuracy of several density functional theory exchange-correlation approximations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Electronic effects in radiation-induced collision cascades in nickel

The accurate treatment of electronic effects in multi-million-atom simulations of radiation-induced collision cascades is crucial for reliable predictions of primary radiation damage. In this work, we explore the fidelity of a recently developed two-temperature molecular dynamics model implementing an electron density-dependent coupling of electronic and atomic subsystems for cascade simulations in nickel. We show that the parameter-free model realistically captures the instantaneous energy losses during all stages of the highly nonequilibrium cascade process. Our simulations predict two distinct coupling regimes, corresponding to the rapid energy losses through electronic stopping in the early stages of the cascade and to the slow equilibration through the electron-phonon coupling mechanism in the later stages, without the use of separate models or coupling terms. The intermediate stage of the cascade dynamics displays a complex energy transfer between the subsystems, which cannot be interpreted by comparison to either electronic stopping or electron-phonon coupling theories. We therefore compare the predicted atomic mixing, which is sensitive to the energy losses during the intermediate cascade stage, with experimental ion beam mixing measurements. We find good agreement with the experiments, validating the coupling model for the intermediate stage of the cascade. Predictions of final defect numbers and cluster sizes are found in line with the results from conventional electronic stopping-based methods, while significantly reducing the theoretical uncertainty in the outcomes of conventional models stemming from arbitrary choices of thresholds for different coupling terms. Our results represent a notable improvement in cascade damage predictions in nickel, providing validation of the electron density-dependent coupling model for radiation damage simulations in general. The results lead us to propose an interpretation of the electronic energy losses in the intermediate regime of velocities, where we find an effectively nonlinear dissipation.

Crystal defects↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microscopic optical potentials from a Green's function approach

Optical potentials are a standard tool in the study of nuclear reactions, as they describe the interaction between a target nucleus and a projectile. The use of phenomenological optical potentials built using experimental data on stable isotopes is widespread. Although successful in their dedicated domain, it is unclear whether these phenomenological potentials can provide reliable predictions for unstable isotopes. To address this problem, optical potentials based on microscopic nuclear structure input calculations prove to be crucial and are an important current line of research. In this work we present an explicit implementation of the Feshbach formalism for the systematic derivation of optical potentials using input from nuclear structure models. Numerical tools for the derivation of Green's functions associated with nonlocal potentials are presented. In conclusion, the new optical potential, based on the valence shell model, is applied to the calculations of 𝑛 + 24 Mg elastic scattering and yields a close agreement with the experimental data.

Direct reactions↗