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At least 307 records · Page 17

Assessing Uncertainties of a Geophysical Approach to Estimate Surface Fine Particulate Matter Distributions from Satellite-Observed Aerosol Optical Depth

Health impact analyses are increasingly tapping the broad spatial coverage of satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) products to estimate human exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5). We use a forward geophysical approach to derive ground-level PM2.5 distributions from satellite AOD at 1 km2(exp) resolution for 2011 over the northeastern US by applying relationships between surface PM2.5 and column AOD (calculated offline from speciated mass distributions) from a regional air quality model (CMAQ; 12×12 km2(exp) horizontal resolution). Seasonal average satellite-derived PM2.5 reveals more spatial detail and best captures observed surface PM2.5 levels during summer. At the daily scale, however, satellite-derived PM2.5 is not only subject to measurement uncertainties from satellite instruments, but more importantly to uncertainties in the relationship between surface PM2.5 and column AOD. Using 11 ground-based AOD measurements within 10 km of surface PM2.5 monitors, we show that uncertainties in modeled PM2.5∕AOD can explain more than 70 % of the spatial and temporal variance in the total uncertainty in daily satellite-derived PM2.5 evaluated at PM2.5 monitors. This finding implies that a successful geophysical approach to deriving daily PM2.5 from satellite AOD requires model skill at capturing day-to-day variations in PM2.5∕AOD relationships. Overall, we estimate that uncertainties in the modeled PM2.5∕AOD lead to an error of 11 µg m−3(exp) in daily satellite-derived PM2.5, and uncertainties in satellite AOD lead to an error of 8 µg m−3(exp). Using multi-platform ground, airborne, and radiosonde measurements, we show that uncertainties of modeled PM2.5∕AOD are mainly driven by model uncertainties in aerosol column mass and speciation, while model representation of relative humidity and aerosol vertical profile shape contributes some systematic biases. The parameterization of aerosol optical properties, which determines the mass extinction efficiency, also contributes to random uncertainty, with the size distribution being the largest source of uncertainty and hygroscopicity of inorganic salt the second largest. Future efforts to reduce uncertainty in geophysical approaches to derive surface PM2.5 from satellite AOD would thus benefit from improving model representation of aerosol vertical distribution and aerosol optical properties, to narrow uncertainty in satellite-derived PM2.5.

aerosol optical depth↗

PAN AIR: A computer program for predicting subsonic or supersonic linear potential flows about arbitrary configurations using a higher order panel method. Volume 2: User's manual (version 3.0)

A comprehensive description of user problem definition for the PAN AIR (Panel Aerodynamics) system is given. PAN AIR solves the 3-D linear integral equations of subsonic and supersonic flow. Influence coefficient methods are used which employ source and doublet panels as boundary surfaces. Both analysis and design boundary conditions can be used. This User's Manual describes the information needed to use the PAN AIR system. The structure and organization of PAN AIR are described, including the job control and module execution control languages for execution of the program system. The engineering input data are described, including the mathematical and physical modeling requirements. Version 3.0 strictly applies only to PAN AIR version 3.0. The major revisions include: (1) inputs and guidelines for the new FDP module (which calculates streamlines and offbody points); (2) nine new class 1 and class 2 boundary conditions to cover commonly used modeling practices, in particular the vorticity matching Kutta condition; (3) use of the CRAY solid state Storage Device (SSD); and (4) incorporation of errata and typo's together with additional explanation and guidelines.

Sidwell, Kenneth W.↗

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗

Space Tug thermal control

Future development of full capability of the Space Tug will impose strict requirements upon the thermal design. Space Tug must be capable of steady-state and transient thermal operation during any given mission for durations of up to seven days and potentially longer periods of time. Maximum flexibility and adaptability of Space Tug to the mission model requires that the vehicle operate without attitude constraints throughout any specific mission. These requirements were translated into a preliminary design study for a geostationary deploy and retrieve mission definition for Space Tug to determine the thermal control design requirements. Results of the study are discussed with emphasis on some of the unique avenues pursued during the study, as well as the recommended thermal design configuration.

Ward, T. L.↗

Thermodynamic Derivation of the Activation Energy for Ice Nucleation

Cirrus clouds play a key role in the radiative and hydrological balance of the upper troposphere. Their correct representation in atmospheric models requires an understanding of the microscopic processes leading to ice nucleation. A key parameter in the theoretical description of ice nucleation is the activation energy, which controls the flux of water molecules from the bulk of the liquid to the solid during the early stages of ice formation. In most studies it is estimated by direct association with the bulk properties of water, typically viscosity and self-diffusivity. As the environment in the ice-liquid interface may differ from that of the bulk, this approach may introduce bias in calculated nucleation rates. In this work a theoretical model is proposed to describe the transfer of water molecules across the ice-liquid interface. Within this framework the activation energy naturally emerges from the combination of the energy required to break hydrogen bonds in the liquid, i.e., the bulk diffusion process, and the work dissipated from the molecular rearrangement of water molecules within the ice-liquid interface. The new expression is introduced into a generalized form of classical nucleation theory. Even though no nucleation rate measurements are used to fit any of the parameters of the theory the predicted nucleation rate is in good agreement with experimental results, even at temperature as low as 190 K, where it tends to be underestimated by most models. It is shown that the activation energy has a strong dependency on temperature and a weak dependency on water activity. Such dependencies are masked by thermodynamic effects at temperatures typical of homogeneous freezing of cloud droplets; however, they may affect the formation of ice in haze aerosol particles. The new model provides an independent estimation of the activation energy and the homogeneous ice nucleation rate, and it may help to improve the interpretation of experimental results and the development of parameterizations for cloud formation.

Cirrus clouds↗

Space tug thermal control

The future development of full capability Space Tug will impose strict requirements upon the thermal design. While requiring a reliable and reusable design, Space Tug must be capable of steady-state and transient thermal operation during any given mission for mission durations of up to seven days and potentially longer periods of time. Maximum flexibility and adaptability of Space Tug to the mission model requires that the vehicle operate within attitude constraints throughout any specific mission. These requirements were translated into a preliminary design study for a geostationary deploy and retrieve mission definition for Space Tug to determine the thermal control design requirements. Results of the study are discussed with emphasis given to some of the unique avenues pursued during the study, as well as the recommended thermal design configuration.

Ward, T. L.↗

A preliminary compressible second-order closure model for high speed flows

A preliminary version of a compressible second-order closure model that was developed in connection with the National Aero-Space Plane Project is presented. The model requires the solution of transport equations for the Favre-averaged Reynolds stress tensor and dissipation rate. Gradient transport hypotheses are used for the Reynolds heat flux, mass flux, and turbulent diffusion terms. Some brief remarks are made about the direction of future research to generalize the model.

Speziale, Charles G.↗

A Robust Machine Learning Schema for Developing, Maintaining, and Disseminating Machine Learning Models

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of ML models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based modeling of material behavior at various length scales and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using ML techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus, effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train ML models and the defining model parameters and architectures within the Granta MI Platform. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in the prediction of material behavior, while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for ML data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Brandon L. Hearley↗

Aircraft Engine Run-To-Failure Data Set Under Real Flight Conditions

The generation of data-driven prognostics models requires the availability of datasets with run-to-failure trajectories. In order to contribute to the development of these methods, the dataset provides a new realistic dataset of run-to-failure trajectories for a small fleet of aircraft engines under realistic flight conditions. The damage propagation modelling used for the generation of this synthetic dataset builds on the modelling strategy from previous work [1] and incorporates two new levels of fidelity. First, it considers real flight conditions as recorded on board of a commercial jet [2]. Secondly, it extends the degradation modelling by relating the degradation process to the operation history. The dataset was generated with the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) dynamical model [3]. More details about the generation process can be found in [4].

CMAPSS↗

Predicting Fiber Failure of Plain Weave Fabric with Recursive Multiscale Micromechanics

Recent advances in the development of machine learning (ML) algorithms have enabled the creation of predictive models that can improve decision making, decrease computational cost, and improve efficiency in a variety of fields. As an organization begins to develop and implement such models, the data used in the training, validation, and testing of machine learning models, the model parameters, and the use cases or limitations of the models must be properly stored to ensure models are both fully traceable and used correctly. In the context of predicting material behavior, advances in computationally intense, physics-based, modeling of material behavior at various length scales, and the emergence of Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) have driven the need for developing data-driven surrogate models of the physics-based simulation tools using machine learning (ML) techniques. Surrogate model development allows for accurate material behavior prediction at a fraction of the cost of its physics-based counterpart, allowing for multiscale simulations of real-world applications, further enabling the ability to design fit-for-purpose materials for a reasonable computational investment. However, training such models requires extensive data, and thus effective data management is necessary to reach the full potential that ML can offer to material design and ICME. This paper proposes a generalized, robust schema that allows organizations to store both real (experimental) and virtual (simulation) data used to train machine learning models and the defining model parameters and architectures. The developed schema allows for various types of data inputs and outputs, including single point values, time-series data, and images that can be used in for various types of machine learning models while following outlined best practices for effective data management. An effective schema for machine learning data and models can help prevent the recreation of virtual/real training data and surrogate models, can help reduce the time to create new models similar to existing ones by offering a starting point in the hyperparameter determination stages, minimize resources devoted to verification and validation (V&V) and certification of models, and ensure that data and surrogate models are not misused due to full traceability of both the data and ML model. It also allows organizations access to models that have already been developed, such that they can be used in the design of new materials, enabling the overall goals of ICME.

Failure↗

Free-flight Performance of a Rocket-boosted, Air-launched 16-inch-diameter Ram-jet Engine at Mach Numbers up to 2.20

The investigation of air-launched ram-jet engines has been extended to include a study of models with a nominal design free-stream Mach number of 2.40. These models require auxiliary thrust in order to attain a flight speed at which the ram jet becomes self-accelerating. A rocket-boosting technique for providing this auxiliary thrust is described and time histories of two rocket-boosted ram-jet flights are presented. In one flight, the model attained a maximum Mach number of 2.20 before a fuel system failure resulted in the destruction of the engine. Performance data for this model are presented in terms of thrust and drag coefficients, diffuser pressure recovery, mass-flow ratio, combustion efficiency, specific fuel consumption, and over-all engine efficiency.

AIR INLETS - NOSE, ANNULAR↗

Loss Factor Estimation Using the Impulse Response Decay Method on a Stiffened Structure

High-frequency vibroacoustic modeling is typically performed using energy-based techniques such as Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA). Energy models require an estimate of the internal damping loss factor. Unfortunately, the loss factor is difficult to estimate analytically, and experimental methods such as the power injection method can require extensive measurements over the structure of interest. This paper discusses the implications of estimating damping loss factors using the impulse response decay method (IRDM) from a limited set of response measurements. An automated procedure for implementing IRDM is described and then evaluated using data from a finite element model of a stiffened, curved panel. Estimated loss factors are compared with loss factors computed using a power injection method and a manual curve fit. The paper discusses the sensitivity of the IRDM loss factor estimates to damping of connected subsystems and the number and location of points in the measurement ensemble.

Cabell, Randolph↗

Stability of the Martian atmosphere: Is heterogeneous catalysis essential?

A comprehensive homogeneous gas phase photochemical model is developed to study the problem of stability of the Martian atmosphere. The one-dimensional model extends from the ground up to 220 km, passing through the homopause at 125 km. The model thus couples the lower (neutral) atmosphere to the ionosphere above which provides significant downward flux of carbon monoxide and oxygen atoms. It is concluded on the basic of currently accepted values for globally and seasonally averaged water vapor abundance, dust opacity and the middle atmospheric eddy mixing coefficient, as well as the relevant laboratory data (particularly the temperature dependence of CO2 absorption cross section and the rate constant for CO+OH reaction), that the rate of re-formation of carbon dioxide exceeds its photolytic destruction rate by about 40%. Furthermore, it is found that this result is virtually independent of the choice of eddy mixing coefficient, unless its value in the middle atmosphere exceeds 10(exp 8) sq cm/sec or is far smaller than 10(exp 5)sq cm/sec, or the dust opacity, unless it exceeds unity, or the water vapor mixing ratio at the surface, unless it is far smaller (less than or = 1 ppm) or far greater (greater than or = 500 ppm) than the average value (approximately 150 ppm). Since none of these extremes represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions on Mars, we propose that the present model requires existence of a mechanism to throttle down the recycling rate of carbon dioxide on Mars. Therefore, it is suggested that a heterogeneous process which provides a sink to the species that participate in the recycling of CO2, i.e., H2O, H2O2, OH, CO or O, in particular, may be necessary to bring about the balance between the CO2 recycling rate and its photolytic destruction rate. Aerosols of dust or ice (pure or doped water or carbon dioxide ice present in the atmosphere of Mars) can provide the appropriate adsorption sites for the above heterogeneous process. Despite our conclusion that some heterogeneous process may be needed, it is important to recognize that one-dimensional models can only provide first-order results which, most likely, represent globally and seasonally averaged conditions. However, it is only after actual temporal, latitudinal and longitudinal variations of relevant atmospheric parameters are included in the model that one can determine fuly whether the problem of atmospheric stabiltiy still continues to persist and whether some heterogeneous process is required to correct it.

Atreya, Sushil K.↗

Evaluating the Assumptions in an Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Model

A set of empirical jet-surface interaction noise models, developed for single-stream round nozzles exhausting over a simple surface in a static ambient, are evaluated for use in more realistic applications that include multi-stream nozzle systems, multi-plane surface geometries, and a flight-stream. The simple-single-stream models have several advantages when used in system-level noise studies: they are robust, they are quickly computed, and they are generally applicable to a wide range of configurations. However, these models require simplifying assumptions when applied to more complex jet exhaust systems; for example, previous work on multi-stream jets used an empirical formula to compute a single-stream equivalent jet potential core length that could be used to predict the noise using simple-single-stream jet-surface interaction models. This paper considers the effect of flight and multi-plane surfaces using a similar approach: introducing assumptions to simplify the complex system, applying the simple-single-stream models, and evaluating the uncertainty.

Jet Noise↗

Evaluating the Assumptions in an Empirical Jet-Surface Interaction Noise Model

A set of empirical jet-surface interaction noise models, developed for single-stream round nozzles exhausting over a simple surface in a static ambient, are evaluated for use in more realistic applications that include multi-stream nozzle systems, multi-plane surface geometries, and a flight-steam. The simple-single-stream models have several advantages when used in system-level noise studies: they are robust, they are quickly computed, and they are generally applicable to a wide range of configurations. However, these models require simplifying assumptions when applied to more complex jet exhaust systems; for example, previous work on multi-stream jets used an empirical formula to compute a single-stream equivalent jet potential core length that could be used to predict the noise using simple-single-stream jet-surface interaction models. This paper considers the effect of flight and multi-plane surfaces using a similar approach: introducing assumptions to simplify the complex system, applying the simple-single-stream models, and evaluating the uncertainty.

Jet Noise↗

Application of Thermal Loads to a Numerical Model

A detailed aerothermal model requires the application of the heat flux profile over all exposed aerodynamic surfaces. These loads are created using both engineering methods (e.g., FORTRAN codes implementing correlations) and CFD simulations (e.g., solutions to Navier-Stokes equations). The goal is to define the spatial and temporal dependency of the heat flux upon the model.

cfd↗

Electron distribution functions in electric field environments

The amount of current carried by an electric discharge in its early stages of growth is strongly dependent on its geometrical shape. Discharges with a large number of branches, each funnelling current to a common stem, tend to carry more current than those with fewer branches. The fractal character of typical discharges was simulated using stochastic models based on solutions of the Laplace equation. Extension of these models requires the use of electron distribution functions to describe the behavior of electrons in the undisturbed medium ahead of the discharge. These electrons, interacting with the electric field, determine the propagation of branches in the discharge and the way in which further branching occurs. The first phase in the extension of the referenced models , the calculation of simple electron distribution functions in an air/electric field medium, is discussed. Two techniques are investigated: (1) the solution of the Boltzmann equation in homogeneous, steady state environments, and (2) the use of Monte Carlo simulations. Distribution functions calculated from both techniques are illustrated. Advantages and disadvantages of each technique are discussed.

Rudolph, Terence H.↗

Icy Satellites of Saturn: Impact Cratering and Age Determination

Saturn is the first giant planet to be visited by an orbiting spacecraft that can transmit large amounts of data to Earth. Crater counts on satellites from Phoebe inward to the regular satellites and ring moons are providing unprecedented insights into the origin and time histories of the impacting populations. Many Voyager-era scientists concluded that the satellites had been struck by at least two populations of impactors. In this view, the Population I impactors, which were generally judged to be comets orbiting the Sun, formed most of the larger and older craters, while Population II impactors, interpreted as Saturn-orbiting ejecta from impacts on satellites, produced most of the smaller and younger craters. Voyager data also implied that all of the ring moons, and probably some of the midsized classical moons, had been catastrophically disrupted and reaccreted since they formed. We examine models of the primary impactor populations in the Saturn system. At the present time, ecliptic comets, which likely originate in the Kuiper belt/scattered disk, are predicted to dominate impacts on the regular satellites and ring moons, but the models require extrapolations in size (from the observed Kuiper belt objects to the much smaller bodies that produce the craters) or in distance (from the known active Jupiter family comets to 9.5 AU). Phoebe, Iapetus, and perhaps even moons closer to Saturn have been struck by irregular satellites as well. We describe the Nice model, which provides a plausible mechanism by which the entire Solar System might have experienced an era of heavy bombardment long after the planets formed. We then discuss the three cratering chronologies, including one based upon the Nice model, that have been used to infer surface ages from crater densities on the saturnian satellites. After reviewing scaling relations between the properties of impactors and the craters they produce, we provide model estimates of the present-day rate at which comets impact, and catastrophically disrupt, the saturnian moons. Finally, we present crater counts on the satellites from two different groups. Many of the heavily cratered terrains appear to be nearly saturated, so it is difficult to infer the provenance of the impactors from crater counts alone. More large craters have been found on Iapetus than on any other satellite. Enceladus displays an enormous range of surface ages, ranging from the old mid-latitude plains to the extremely young South Polar Terrain. Cassini images provide some evidence for the reality of Population II. Most of the observed craters may have formed in one or more cataclysms, but more work is needed to determine the roles of heliocentric and planetocentric bodies in creating the craters.

Dones, L.↗