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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17

Exploring how urban form and demographics are linked with pedestrian and bicycle safety

With pedestrian and bicycle safety as the focus, this study investigates the role of urban form, burdened communities (BCs), and demographics at the national level. Urban form can contribute to segregation, limiting access to crucial resources such as safe infrastructure, essential services, and economic opportunities. Leveraging recent data, this research applies six key indicators to identify BCs based on various socioeconomic and environmental factors. Here, the study creates a unique database combining 10 years of pedestrian-bicycle-involved fatal crashes with data for the 71,729 census tracts with burden indicators and census data. The data are analyzed using descriptives and rigorous zero-hurdle negative binomial models, which account for excessive zeros observed in the data. The inference-based analysis results reveal a positive correlation between burden indicators and pedestrian-bicycle-involved fatal crash occurrences, alongside a heightened risk in areas with high-intensity development. Higher Black, American Indian, or Alaska Native populations are associated with more fatal crashes. The study offers novel insights into safety dynamics across different contexts characterized by urban forms, BCs, and demographics. The study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to enhance pedestrian and bicycle safety.

bicycle crashes↗

Defining the 50-Year Module: Luck, Design, or Both?

Poster presenting a new Duramat project that will develop a science-based definition of a "50-year solar panel" by combining reliability data, climate risks, design choices, and long-term cost analysis. The work aims to clarify what is needed to enable longer-lasting, high-value solar systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Application of Cyber-Informed Engineering for Protecting BESS

This white paper synthesizes an array of crucial grid services provided by BESS technology, assesses its architecture and communications, and presents a case study for analysis against the principles introduced by Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE). Furthermore, in walking through the analysis, this paper presents a framework to evaluate risks and solutions when considering BESS components. Asset owners and buyers could perform this analysis to assess their BESS product implementations, alternative inverter-based resources (IBR), and energy management systems (EMS). Battery systems fulfill various roles contingent on the unique market demands and the specific challenges presented by regional grid infrastructures. These roles also vary due to the differing utility models for ownership and operation, which are adapted to meet regional and local capabilities and requirements. Concerns have been raised regarding the potential for adversaries to exploit knowledge of battery operational patterns to orchestrate decisive attacks. However, the security of operational data for these systems may not be the primary vulnerability, as much of this information is already well-understood within the community. Applying a modest degree of subject matter expertise can often yield valuable predictions regarding how a battery will respond under certain conditions, such as grid emergencies, high or low-temperature days, Public Safety Power Shutoff (PSPS) events, and outages. The operational characteristics of batteries are well-documented, and their capabilities, including the risks associated with misoperation and the resulting consequences, are published and understood within the industry. CIE practices represent the next step in gaining functional assurance and providing an acceptable level of risk, regardless of whether a battery vendor can support a trusted and validated supply chain. While this issue has exacerbated supply chain challenges, it is not an isolated condition. This foreign supply route is the primary source of BESS for the U.S. market. Significant efforts are underway through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) to change that. Still, strategic short-term operational mitigations are needed to ensure the security of our operational technology (OT) systems, which are enhanced by instilling trust and are separate from vendors implementing CIE principles.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Space Shuttle MMOD Threat Mitigation Techniques

Prior to each shuttle mission, threat assessments are performed to determine the risk of critical penetration, payload bay door radiator tube leak and crew module window replacement from Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD). Mission parameters, such as vehicle attitude, exposure time and altitude are used as inputs for the analysis. Ballistic limit equations, based on hypervelocity impact testing of shuttle materials are used to estimate the critical particle diameters of the outer surfaces of the vehicle. The assessments are performed using the BUMPER computer code at the NASA/JSC Hypervelocity Impact Technology Facility (HITF). The most critical involves the calculation of Loss of Crew and Vehicle (LOCV) risk. An overview of significant MMOD impacts on the Payload Bay Door radiators, wing leading edge reinforced carbon-carbon (RCC) panels and crew module windows will be presented, along with a discussion of the techniques NASA has implemented to reduce the risk from MMOD impacts. This paper will describe on-orbit inspection of the RCC regions and the methods used discern hypervelocity impact damage. Impact damage contingency plans and on-orbit repair techniques will also be discussed. The wing leading edge impact detection system (WLEIDS) and it s role in the reduction of on-orbit risk reduction will be presented. Finally, an analysis of alternative shuttle flight attitudes on MMOD risk will be demonstrated.

Hyde, J. L.↗

Subscale and Full-Scale Testing of Buckling-Critical Launch Vehicle Shell Structures

New analysis-based shell buckling design factors (aka knockdown factors), along with associated design and analysis technologies, are being developed by NASA for the design of launch vehicle structures. Preliminary design studies indicate that implementation of these new knockdown factors can enable significant reductions in mass and mass-growth in these vehicles and can help mitigate some of NASA s launch vehicle development and performance risks by reducing the reliance on testing, providing high-fidelity estimates of structural performance, reliability, robustness, and enable increased payload capability. However, in order to validate any new analysis-based design data or methods, a series of carefully designed and executed structural tests are required at both the subscale and full-scale level. This paper describes recent buckling test efforts at NASA on two different orthogrid-stiffened metallic cylindrical shell test articles. One of the test articles was an 8-ft-diameter orthogrid-stiffened cylinder and was subjected to an axial compression load. The second test article was a 27.5-ft-diameter Space Shuttle External Tank-derived cylinder and was subjected to combined internal pressure and axial compression.

Hilburger, Mark W.↗

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Based Response Surface Approach for FLEX and Accident Tolerant Fuels for Medium Break LOCA Spectrum

After the Fukushima Daiichi Accident, the safety features such as accident tolerant fuel (ATF) and diverse and flexible coping strategies (FLEX) for existing nuclear fleets are being investigated by the US Department of Energy under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program. This research is being conducted to quantify the risk-benefit of these safety features. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment (DPRA)-based response-surface approach has been presented to quantify the FLEX and ATF benefits by estimating the risk associated with each option. ATFs with multilayered silicon carbide (SiC), iron-chromium-aluminum, and chromium-coated zirconium cladding were considered in this study. While these ATF candidates perform better than the current zirconium cladding (Zr), they may introduce additional failure modes in some operating conditions. The fuel failure analysis modules (FAMs) were developed to investigate ATF performance. The dynamic risk assessments were performed using RAVEN, a DPRA tool, coupled with RELAP5 and FAMs. A cumulative distribution function-based index provided a mean of comparing the benefits of safety enhancements. For medium break loss of coolant accidents, FLEX operational timing window for each fuel type was estimated. Among these ATF candidates, SiC-type ATF was the most beneficial candidate for an increased safety margin than Zr-based fuel and was found to complement FLEX strategies in terms of risk and coping time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Near-Earth Phase Risk Comparison of Human Mars Campaign Architectures

A risk analysis of the launch, orbital assembly, and Earth-departure phases of human Mars exploration campaign architectures was completed as an extension of a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) originally carried out under the NASA Constellation Program Ares V Project. The objective of the updated analysis was to study the sensitivity of loss-of-campaign risk to such architectural factors as composition of the propellant delivery portion of the launch vehicle fleet (Ares V heavy-lift launch vehicle vs. smaller/cheaper commercial launchers) and the degree of launcher or Mars-bound spacecraft element sparing. Both a static PRA analysis and a dynamic, event-based Monte Carlo simulation were developed and used to evaluate the probability of loss of campaign under different sparing options. Results showed that with no sparing, loss-of-campaign risk is strongly driven by launcher count and on-orbit loiter duration, favoring an all-Ares V launch approach. Further, the reliability of the all-Ares V architecture showed significant improvement with the addition of a single spare launcher/payload. Among architectures utilizing a mix of Ares V and commercial launchers, those that minimized the on-orbit loiter duration of Mars-bound elements were found to exceed the reliability of no spare all-Ares V campaign if unlimited commercial vehicle sparing was assumed

Manning, Ted A.↗

A Case for Developing a Ground Based Replication of the Earth, Moon and Mars Spaceflight Infrastructure

When the systems are developed and in place to provide the services needed to operate en route and on the Lunar and Martian surfaces, an Earth based replication will need to be in place for the safety and protection of mission success. The replication will entail all aspects of the flight configuration end to end but will not include any closed loop systems. This would replicate the infrastructure from Lunar and Martian robots, manned surface excursions, through man and unmanned terrestrial bases, through the various types of communication systems and technologies, manned and un-manned space vehicles (large and small), to Earth based systems and control centers. An Earth based replicated infrastructure will enable checkout and test of new technologies, hardware, software updates and upgrades and procedures without putting humans and missions at risk. Analysis of events, what ifs and trouble resolution could be played out on the ground to remove as much risk as possible from any type of proposed change to flight operational systems. With adequate detail, it is possible that failures could be predicted with a high probability and action taken to eliminate failures. A major factor in any mission to the Moon and to Mars is the complexity of systems, interfaces, processes, their limitations, associated risks and the factor of the unknown including the development by many contractors and NASA centers. The need to be able to introduce new technologies over the life of the program requires an end to end test bed to analyze and evaluate these technologies and what will happen when they are introduced into the flight system. The ability to analyze system behaviors end to end under varying conditions would enhance safety e.g. fault tolerances. This analysis along with the ability to mine data from the development environment (e.g. test data), flight ops and modeling/simulations data would provide a level of information not currently available to operations and astronauts. In this paper we will analyze the beginnings of such a replication and what it could do in terms of reducing risk in the near term for development. We will analyze the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test lab which has to a large extent accomplished this replication for the SSME and has been highly successful in analyzing hardware and software problems and changes. The cost of replicating the flight system as proposed here could be very high if attempted as an afterthought. We will describe the initial steps for the development of a replication of this infrastructure starting with the communication infrastructure. The Constellation of Labs (CofL) under the Command, Control, Communication and Information (C3I) project for the NASA Exploration Initiative will provide the initial foundation upon which to base this replication. Simply put, there is very little margin for error in high latency situations e.g. en-route to/from Mars or in an autonomous process on the Lunar far side. Any thought out approach to reduce risk and increase safety needs to be accomplished end to end with the actual systems configuration.

Bradford, Robert N.↗

A Comprehensive Characterization of Microorganisms and Allergens in Spacecraft Environment

The determination of risk from infectious disease during long-duration missions is composed of several factors including the concentration and the characteristics of the infectious agent. Thus, a thorough knowledge of the microorganisms aboard spacecraft is essential in mitigating infectious disease risk to the crew. While stringent steps are taken to minimize the transfer of potential pathogens to spacecraft, several medically significant organisms have been isolated from both the Mir and International Space Station (ISS). Historically, the method for isolation and identification of microorganisms from spacecraft environmental samples depended upon their growth on culture media. Unfortunately, only a fraction of the organisms may grow on a culture medium, potentially omitting those microorganisms whose nutritional and physical requirements for growth are not met. Thus, several pathogens may not have been detected, such as Legionella pneumophila, the etiological agent of Legionnaire s disease. We hypothesize that environmental analysis using non-culture-based technologies will reveal microorganisms, allergens, and microbial toxins not previously reported in spacecraft, allowing for a more complete health assessment. The development of techniques for this flight experiment, operationally named SWAB, has already provided advances in NASA laboratory processes and beneficial information toward human health risk assessment. The translation of 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing for the identification of bacteria from the SWAB experiment to nominal operations has increased bacterial speciation of environmental isolates from previous flights three fold compared to previous conventional methodology. The incorporation of molecular-based DNA fingerprinting using repetitive sequence-based polymerase chain reaction (rep-PCR) into the capabilities of the laboratory has provided a methodology to track microorganisms between crewmembers and their environment. Both 16S ribosomal DNA identification and bacterial fingerprinting have improved NASA s capability to better understand spacecraft environments and determine the source of contamination events. Preflight sampling has been completed for air, surface, and water samples. In-flight sample collection has been completed for a total of 8 air and surface sample collection sessions. In-flight hardware has performed well and the surface sampling device received positive feedback from the crew for its ease of use. While processing and analysis continue for these samples, early results have begun to provide information on the spacecraft environment. Using a method called Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis (DGGE), several air and samples were evaluated to determine the types of organisms that were present. Using only molecular techniques, DGGE does not depend on any microbial growth on culture media, allowing a more comprehensive assessment of the spacecraft interior. Preliminary results have identified several microorganisms that would not have been isolated using current technology, though none of these organisms would be considered medically significant. Interestingly, the isolation of Gram negative organisms is greater using DGGE than conventional media based isolation. The cause of this finding is unclear, though it may be the result of the technique s ability to isolate both viable and non-viable bacteria. The next phase of the SWAB sample analysis is the use of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (QPCR) to look for specific medically significant organisms. While not as broad as DGGE, QPCR is much more sensitive and may reveal findings that were not seen during the initial evaluation. Together, this information will lead toward an accurate microbial risk assessment to help set flight requirements to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Castro, V.A.↗

Can Restoring Tidal Wetlands Reduce Estuarine Nuisance Flooding of Coasts Under Future Sea‐Level Rise?

Wetland restoration is an increasingly popular nature‐based method for flood risk mitigation in coastal communities. In this study, we present a novel method using hydrodynamic modeling and harmonic analysis to quantify wetlands' ability to reduce future nuisance flooding. The method leverages a hydrodynamic model calibrated to present day data and was run for a range of future sea‐level rise (SLR) and wetland restoration scenarios to quantify changes to tidal harmonic amplitudes and phases. The harmonic constituents are used to generate water surface elevations over a time period of interest (e.g., one year) and compared to critical exceedance thresholds such as levee elevations. Then, changes to nuisance flooding are calculated by counting the number of hours critical thresholds are exceeded under different SLR and wetland restoration scenarios. We applied the method to Coos Bay, Oregon, USA as a test case. We found restoration reduces the number of hours nuisance flooding occurs in downtown Coos Bay from 15 hr (present day conditions) to 0 hr (fully restored condition) under median SLR (82 cm by 2100). Restoration had spatially variable impacts on reducing peak flood elevations with minimal impacts near the estuary mouth and greatest impact 32 km inland. The effectiveness of restoration was heavily dependent on future SLR. Restoration was maximally effective in 2050 under all SLR scenarios, less effective in 2100 under median SLR, and not effective under high SLR. Modeling results suggest increased tidal prism and accommodation space are driving restoration‐associated reductions in tidal amplitudes.

Brand, Matthew W. [Louisiana State Univ., Baton Ro↗

Hear It? – New Physics Calls For a Healthy Target!

Nowadays, when the attention of the physics community is drawn to muon collider prospects and neutrino projects, a target as the primary source of such exotic particles is a key component of a particle physics experiment. The extreme conditions placed on the target, though, decrease its functionality and threaten the future of high-power targetry. Subject to superb magnetic fields, extreme temperatures, and radiation damage, the target is constantly at risk of unexpected failures. The Target Health Monitor (THM) aims to enable the continuous analysis of the target state throughout the experiment. Based on the optical concept of Brewster s angle and the reflectivity variation with the compositional changes in the target material, the THM will record and evaluate the radiation-caused transmutations in the target to foresee its malfunction before it affects the experimental results. The first steps in validating our THM concept have been made this summer. Continuing reflectivity measurements of the prospective target materials, we anticipate proving the THM potential to monitor target health effectively.

Havryshchuk, Kateryna↗

Automated radiation hard ASIC design tool

A commercial based, foundry independent, compiler design tool (ChipCrafter) with custom radiation hardened library cells is described. A unique analysis approach allows low hardness risk for Application Specific IC's (ASIC's). Accomplishments, radiation test results, and applications are described.

White, Mike↗

The Role and Quality of Software Safety in the NASA Constellation Program

In this study, we examine software safety risk in the early design phase of the NASA Constellation spaceflight program. Obtaining an accurate, program-wide picture of software safety risk is difficult across multiple, independently-developing systems. We leverage one source of safety information, hazard analysis, to provide NASA quality assurance managers with information regarding the ongoing state of software safety across the program. The goal of this research is two-fold: 1) to quantify the relative importance of software with respect to system safety; and 2) to quantify the level of risk presented by software in the hazard analysis. We examined 154 hazard reports created during the preliminary design phase of three major flight hardware systems within the Constellation program. To quantify the importance of software, we collected metrics based on the number of software-related causes and controls of hazardous conditions. To quantify the level of risk presented by software, we created a metric scheme to measure the specificity of these software causes. We found that from 49-70% of hazardous conditions in the three systems could be caused by software or software was involved in the prevention of the hazardous condition. We also found that 12-17% of the 2013 hazard causes involved software, and that 23-29% of all causes had a software control. Furthermore, 10-12% of all controls were software-based. There is potential for inaccuracy in these counts, however, as software causes are not consistently scoped, and the presence of software in a cause or control is not always clear. The application of our software specificity metrics also identified risks in the hazard reporting process. In particular, we found a number of traceability risks in the hazard reports may impede verification of software and system safety.

Layman, Lucas↗

Marin County Wildland Fires: Examining Fuel Load and Land Cover Change to Inform Fire Prevention and Suppression Decisions in Marin County, CA

Heightened occurrence of severe wildfires in the Western United States is increasing the need to better understand regions of high potential wild fire severity and develop methodologies for identifying the best locations for fuels reduction and active wildfire suppression, especially in populated regions such as Marin County, California. Marin County, located in the San Francisco Bay Area, has had significant development in the wildland-urban interface and periods of highly wildfire-prone conditions. The NASA DEVELOP team collaborated with Fire Foundry, a Marin-based fire service work force development program, to develop new models to assist with fire management. Using data from Sentinel-2A, Planet Scope, ECOSTRESS, a county-wide LiDAR mapping effort, Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), the team developed several input data layers to three models evaluating wild fire severity. One model performed a suitability analysis with weights based on scientific literature, another utilized machine learning based on past fires in Marin and neighboring Sonoma County to predict the difference normalized burn ratio, and the third inputted data layers into the Flam Map tool, which outputs risk categories. The team compared model outputs and, using the best-fit model, performed fuzzy logic analysis to identify specific locations where a fire break could be constructed to interrupt the progress of an active fire. These tools were proven useful and will assist partners in preparing for and managing an active wildfire event.

Suhani Dalal↗

Investigating Risks Due to Artemis EVA Tempo Via Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Spaceflight operations pose unique challenges to crew health, safety, and resource management. As space agencies and private companies continue to push the boundaries of human exploration, it is essential to understand the risks associated with Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) and develop strategies to mitigate them. The tempo at which EVAs are conducted – the total number and frequency of these activities – can have a profound impact on medical risks, resource consumption, and overall mission success. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) provides a powerful framework for evaluating complex systems and identifying potential hazards. Our work employs the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) [1] to simulate mission events, occurrence and treatment of medical conditions, and track the utilization of resources. Coupled with the Evidence Library [2], a medical evidence base for exploration-class missions developed by the Exploration Medical Capability within NASA’s Human Research Program, we can estimate these risks with increased fidelity and optimize medical kit contents to meet specific mission requirements. This presentation provides a detailed examination of how EVA tempo influences medical risk estimates for a lunar surface design reference mission. A comprehensive analysis is conducted to assess the additional mass and volume burden imposed on medical kits required to maintain adequate levels of risk mitigation. Furthermore, we estimate the distribution of the number of successful EVAs completed based on the level of task impairment imposed by medical events and flight rules related to specific medical events, such as decompression sickness.

Modeling↗

Stochastic Verification by Analysis for Autonomous Systems Management Architecture (ASMA)

The Gateway Vehicle Systems Manager (VSM) is the top-level of a distributed, hierarchical software control system. VSM is data-driven and will make decisions related to mission, fault, resource management and vehicle control. These attributes combined with a high degree of autonomy make it susceptible to emergent behavior. In order to achieve the high level of confidence needed in this critical system, the VSM team has developed a multifaceted verification strategy employing traditional verification techniques, simulation, model checking, and runtime verification. Individual algorithms are verified using conventional testing and model checking using assume-guarantee contracts. A discrete event-based simulation approach is being developed to verify timelines. This presentation describes an enhancement to the verification approach using analysis to enhance system robustness by detecting and resolving the potential for emergent behavior. The verification by analysis employs a Software in the Loop (SITL) environment with real flight software executing on emulated processors, simulations of vehicle subsystems, flight dynamics, and human inputs. Since the possible input space and configuration data set are too large for exhaustive testing, a Monte Carlo approach is used to cover feasible scenarios, augmented with corner cases and known higher-risk scenarios. A key problem in using Monte Carlo-based system verification is evaluating test results to ensure that system behavior is correct. The presentation describes the approach the VSM team uses to monitor behavior for compliance with predetermined boundaries and to identify anomalous behavior for further analysis. This presentation describes the multi-level systems approach to verification, and the simulation-based layer that covers the feasible state space: 1. Overview of the Gateway VSM 2. Special challenges due to heterogeneous, hierarchical architecture 3. Modeling and simulation environment using flight software and system simulations 4. Developing input sets to ensure state-space coverage 5. Developing model and data configuration sets to ensure model coverage 6. Interpreting results without predetermined outcomes 7. Lessons learned and future work

Verification and Validation↗

Parametric and Sensitivity Analysis of a Steam Generator Model Using Python and Machine-Learning Tools

For this study, we used Python and machine-learning tools to perform a comprehensive parametric and sensitivity analysis on a steam generator (SG) model. (The Python model was based on a previously completed MATLAB framework for the Holtec SMR-160 SG.) We investigated the influence of various input parameters (e.g., heat transfer coefficient [HTC], Nusselt number, and heat exchanger effectiveness) on the system’s output. With machine-learning tools such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN), which was developed at Idaho National Laboratory, we were then able to perform an automated analysis of the SG inputs’ effect on the HTC. The analysis results give valuable insights into the performance and optimization of SG systems. We found the inlet mass flow rate (MFR) to have the greatest impact on the HTC, followed closely by the inlet temperature, and then pressure. Shifting of the input parameters causes the location of the maximum HTC along the SG length to change incrementally. The cold leg (CL) MFR was also found to impact the HTC magnitude as well as the location of the maximum HTC. At between 0.4–0.9 of the total SG length, the input parameters experience maximum impact on the HTC, leading us to suggest that sensors be efficiently placed on the SG so as to closely and effectively monitor thermal-hydraulic properties during reactor operation. We also found that the sensitivity data calculated manually agrees with the RAVEN – based data, confirming the same range of maximum sensitivity. However, the RAVEN-based analysis showed that cold leg pressure and hot leg temperature have a greater impact on the heat transfer coefficient than the mass flow rate, implying that a manual sensitivity study taking only two samples is not accurate.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Methods for Probabilistic Uncertainty Analysis and Bayesian Analysis with Examples of Statistically Analyzing Data to Revise MMOD Risk Estimates and Compare Models

Probabilistic methods are presented for characterizing and quantifying uncertainties in models and model predictions. Techniques are given for constructing specific uncertainty distributions based on available information. Alternative techniques are given for propagating uncertainties in model inputs to obtain the uncertainty in the model result or prediction. Bayesian techniques are also described for utilizing data and information to update and revise model results and predictions. The focus is on applications with numerous specific examples given. The use of data to revise Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris (MMOD) risk prediction models are among the examples given.

Risk↗