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At least 307 records · Page 17

Advancing Manufacturing Water Resilience: Addressing Risks through New Approaches and Technologies

Water is indispensable in manufacturing operations, and many manufacturers operate on the assumption that water of sufficient quality and quantity will be available whenever and wherever needed. As such, the importance of water to this sector has been overlooked, despite its critical importance for operations and meeting production demands, due to perceived sufficient availability and low cost of water to manufacturers. However, the situation is changing as water-related risks are markedly increasing due to aging infrastructure, changing climate, and resource extraction, which alter global and regional water cycles and characteristics. These changes are occurring against a backdrop of intensifying competition from other sectors for scarce and/or unevenly distributed water resources and changing trends in water needs. Section 1 of this report explores those risks in the U.S. context, while the remaining sections detail the work needed to advance the resilience of manufacturing water supplies to these changing risks by filling critical data gaps, re-evaluating the value of water to manufacturers, and advancing opportunities for novel technologies and analyses. The intended audience for this report is broad, including manufacturers, decision makers, researchers, and policymakers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Root Cause Analysis of the Data Refinement Process – Medical Conditions Capability Resource Tables

The medical system for spaceflight thus far has been designed to support missions in low earth orbit (LEO). Crew capabilities are limited and heavily dependent on the team of medical support staff at Mission Control Center (MCC) to guide diagnosis and management. However, missions to the Moon and Mars will suffer from several constraints that will make this ground support focused approach to care ineffective. In order to update and modify medical system design, NASA has relied on Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) modeling to mitigate medical risk through trade space analysis. Specifically, capability resource tables (CRT’s) were developed to create a dataset of resources required to manage a list of accepted medical conditions significant in exploration spaceflight. With 120 conditions, this dataset contained hundreds of capabilities and thousands of resources with tens of thousands of cells of data. Initially these tables were built in excel for high throughput during development, but ultimately had to be transferred, managed, and modified into the Evidence Library database for modeling purposes. The process of collating and reviewing the Evidence Library revealed numerous errors in the dataset that had to be corrected through iterative changes. Several error types emerged during this process and can be broken into specific classifications defined as “input”, “transcription”, “structural”, “branching”, and “information”. In reviewing these error types through the root cause analysis (RCA) approach, we were able to identify the contributors to these errors which included single data review points, changing product end goals, limited software selection, time constraints and several others. By reviewing and evaluating the underlying causes we can provide possible system improvements that can be implemented for current and future data management in PRA model inputs.

A. Anderson↗

High Value Risk Targets in Human System Risk

The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) has the overall responsibility for tracking the evolution of the top ~30 human system risks that it has identified to be associated with human spaceflight. The Board is also charged with maintaining a consistent, integrated process to mitigate those risks, and developing evidence-based risk posture recommendations. Each Risk Custodian Team (RCT) identifies High Value Risk Mitigation Targets (HVRMT) that have the highest likelihood or greatest impact in reducing their risk. These typically include areas where there are major gaps in knowledge or capability; or other targets that promise to yield returns worthy of investments in time, money and other resources by stakeholders interested in reducing Human System Risk. As part of the review of each risk the Board members consider and discuss the HVRMT statements, which are then approved by the Board Chair. High Value Risk Mitigation Targets can include research activities funded by the Human Research Program, but often involve recommending standards, monitoring, or other operational goals to reduce risk. This presentation will discuss common themes and highlights of the approved HVRTs to inform IWS attendees and the wider research community.

D M Buckland↗

Analyzing the Impact of Lunar Dust on Astronaut Health – an Update to the Risk Modeling

INTRODUCTION Lunar dust exposure is an unavoidable hazard during lunar surface operations. Given the large number of surface EVAs expected to be performed during Artemis missions, it is critical that the incidence and extent of symptoms resulting from contact with lunar dust be fully understood in order to accurately predict the resources needed to treat Artemis astronauts. The purpose of this study will be to gather the latest data regarding the risk of and severity of symptoms associated with lunar dust exposure and refine the estimates of the impact of lunar dust on astronaut health for PRA models, both those in operational use and those currently being developed. METHODS The latest data on the pathophysiologic effects of lunar dust on humans will be gathered by querying the peer-reviewed literature as well as NASA technical documents. This data will be supplemented with discussions with hardware designers regarding methods used to mitigate exposure to lunar dust during lunar surface operations. Taken together, this data will be used to refine both the estimates for exposure to lunar dust for astronauts inside and outside lunar habitats, as well as provide evidence to guide estimates for the percentage of astronauts who are exposed to lunar dust who will be symptomatic. RESULTS Querying the peer-reviewed literature and NASA technical documents will begin in October of 2024, with the goal of codifying this information by the end of October. In parallel, discussions will begin with hardware engineering teams, also in October. Using the evidence found will help refine the estimate for resources needed to treat astronauts who exhibit symptoms from lunar dust exposure. DISCUSSION Lunar dust exposure is expected to be a major risk for upcoming exploration missions that include a lunar surface interval. Until recently, most of the information to inform the risk associated with lunar dust exposure has come from anecdotal evidence from Apollo astronauts about their symptoms while on the lunar surface; however, this evidence is sparse. Newer studies are now coming out, looking at the impact of lunar dust on human physiology, including studies on effects to the immune system. Additionally, there are new engineering efforts to attempt to mitigate the exposure to lunar dust from the space suits of astronauts returning to the lunar habitat after surface operations. Thus, developing an updated risk assessment, based on our current understanding of human physiology and our current resources for risk mitigation, is prudent to best estimate overall human health and performance risk for future Artemis missions. This project will lead to an updated and more accurate assessment of the risk of lunar dust exposure for exploration missions and will therefore allow mission planners to more accurately predict resources needed for these exploration-class missions.

D M Nusbaum↗

Process-Based Cost Estimation for Ramjet/Scramjet Engines

Process-based cost estimation plays a key role in effecting cultural change that integrates distributed science, technology and engineering teams to rapidly create innovative and affordable products. Working together, NASA Glenn Research Center and Boeing Canoga Park have developed a methodology of process-based cost estimation bridging the methodologies of high-level parametric models and detailed bottoms-up estimation. The NASA GRC/Boeing CP process-based cost model provides a probabilistic structure of layered cost drivers. High-level inputs characterize mission requirements, system performance, and relevant economic factors. Design alternatives are extracted from a standard, product-specific work breakdown structure to pre-load lower-level cost driver inputs and generate the cost-risk analysis. As product design progresses and matures the lower level more detailed cost drivers can be re-accessed and the projected variation of input values narrowed, thereby generating a progressively more accurate estimate of cost-risk. Incorporated into the process-based cost model are techniques for decision analysis, specifically, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and functional utility analysis. Design alternatives may then be evaluated not just on cost-risk, but also user defined performance and schedule criteria. This implementation of full-trade study support contributes significantly to the realization of the integrated development environment. The process-based cost estimation model generates development and manufacturing cost estimates. The development team plans to expand the manufacturing process base from approximately 80 manufacturing processes to over 250 processes. Operation and support cost modeling is also envisioned. Process-based estimation considers the materials, resources, and processes in establishing cost-risk and rather depending on weight as an input, actually estimates weight along with cost and schedule.

Singh, Brijendra↗

Quantifying the Sensitivity of Condition Incidence Parameters in the Evidence Library

One approach to quantifying spaceflight risk at NASA makes use event driven probabilistic techniques. The Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) is such a tool that estimates medical risk metrics via simulation and enables optimization of medical resources subject to mission constraints [1]. Previous analyses have informed medical set composition, exercise countermeasures, and water intake, where each analysis quantifies the risk associated with proposed variations in system design. As future mission profiles extend beyond Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) and lengthen in duration, understanding these risks and contributing factors is critical. MEDPRAT employs Monte Carlo sampling techniques to simulate missions and track the occurrence of medical events. These events follow fault-tree-like progressions through levels of severity and mitigation via medical treatment to many possible outcomes and these are reported throughout the mission. Making this possible, are the medical databases that contain evidence gathered by the Human Research Program (HRP). Quantifying the impact of uncertainty or variability in the input data is an important step in evaluating the credibility of modeling and simulation results. In this work, we investigate the sensitivity of medical risk metrics with respect to the condition incidence parameters within the Evidence Library (EL) [2] as the medical database input for MEDPRAT. The medical conditions, contained in the EL, are equipped with incidence rates that describe the likelihood that the condition will occur. These incidence rates reflect historical spaceflight data or when appropriate, terrestrial data. In this presentation, we will explore how uncertainty in these rates propagate to the medical risk described by MEDPRAT. These results identify the conditions and parameters with the largest contribution to medical risks.

Ian Lim↗

Airport Risk Assessment Model Stakeholder Symposium Event Report

On June 22-23, 2021, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory hosted a two-day virtual stakeholder symposium to share how the Airport Risk Assessment Model (ARAM) is putting security resource allocation planning into the hands of our airport’s front lines of defense. This report highlights the key takeaways from the discussions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrated risk management

The purpose of this report is to first present a basis or foundation for the building of an integrated risk management plan and them to present the plan. The integration referred to is across both the temporal and the hierarchical dimensions. Complexity, consequence, and credibility seem to be driving the need for the consideration of risk. Reduction of personal bias and reproducibility of the decision making process seem to be driving the consideration of a formal risk plan. While risk can be used as either a selection tool or a control tool, this paper concentrates on the selection usage. Risk relies on stated purpose. The tightness of the definition of purpose and success is directly reflected in the definition and control of risk. Much of a risk management plan could be designed by the answers to the questions of why, what, who, when, and where. However, any plan must provide the following information about a threat or risk: likelihood, consequence, predictability, reliability, and reproducibility. While the environment at NASA is seen as warm, but not hot, for the introduction of a risk program, some encouragement is seen if the following problems are addressed: no champion, no commitment of resource, confused definitions, lack of direction and focus, a hard sell, NASA culture, many choices of assessment methods, and cost. The plan is designed to follow the normal method of doing work and is structured to follow either the work break down structure or a functional structure very well. The parts of the plan include: defining purpose and success, initial threat assessment, initial risk assessment, reconciling threats and parameters, putting part of the information down and factoring the information back into the decision process as it comes back up, and developing inferences. Two major suggestions are presented. One is to build an office of risk management to be used as a resource by managers in doing the risk process. Another is to form a pilot program to try out the details in the plan and modify the method where needed.

Hunsucker, J. L.↗

Lunar Polar In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) as a Stepping Stone for Human Exploration

A major emphasis of NASA is to extend and expand human exploration across the solar system. While specific destinations are still being discussed as to what comes first, it is imperative that NASA create new technologies and approaches that make space exploration affordable and sustainable. Critical to achieving affordable and sustainable exploration beyond low Earth orbit (LEO) are the development of technologies and approaches for advanced robotics, power, propulsion, habitats, life support, and especially, space resource utilization systems. Space resources and how to use them, often called In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU), can have a tremendous beneficial impact on robotic and human exploration of the Moon, Mars, Phobos, and Near Earth Objects (NEOs), while at the same time helping to solve terrestrial challenges and enabling commercial space activities. The search for lunar resources, demonstration of extraterrestrial mining, and the utilization of resource-derived products, especially from polar volatiles, can be a stepping stone for subsequent human exploration missions to other destinations of interest due to the proximity of the Moon, complimentary environments and resources, and the demonstration of critical technologies, processes, and operations. ISRU and the Moon: There are four main areas of development interest with respect to finding, obtaining, extracting, and using space resources: Prospecting for resources, Production of mission critical consumables like propellants and life support gases, Civil engineering and construction, and Energy production, storage, and transfer. The search for potential resources and the production of mission critical consumables are the primary focus of current NASA technology and system development activities since they provide the greatest initial reduction in mission mass, cost, and risk. Because of the proximity of the Moon, understanding lunar resources and developing, demonstrating, and implementing lunar ISRU provides a near and early opportunity to perform the following that are applicable to other human exploration mission destinations: Identify and characterize resources, how they are distributed, and the material, location and environment in which they are found; Demonstrate concepts, technologies, and hardware that can reduce the cost and risk of human exploration beyond Earth orbit; Use the Moon for operation experience and mission validation for much longer missions that are farther from Earth Develop and evolve ISRU to support sustained, economical human presence beyond Earth's orbit, including promoting space commercialization As Table 1 depicts, the Moon provides environments and resources applicable to Mars and NEOs. Two lunar ISRU resource and product pathways that have notable synergism with NEO, Phobos/Demos, and Mars ISRU are oxygen/metal extraction from regolith, and water/volatile extraction from lunar polar materials. To minimize the risk of developing and incorporating ISRU into human missions, a phased implementation plan is recommended that starts with prospecting and demonstrating critical technologies on robotic and human missions, then performing pilot scale operations (in non-mission critical roles) to enhance exploration mission capabilities, leading to full utilization of space resources in mission critical roles. Which lunar ISRU pathway is followed will depend on the results of early resource prospecting/proof-ofconcept mission(s), and long-term human exploration plans.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

Anaphylaxis, Intra-Abdominal Infections, Skin Lacerations, and Behavioral Emergencies: A Literature Review of Austere Analogs for a near Earth Asteroid Mission

As space exploration is directed towards destinations beyond low-Earth orbit, the consequent new set of medical risks will drive requirements for new capabilities and more resources to ensure crew health. The Space Medicine Exploration Medical Conditions List (SMEMCL), developed by the Exploration Medical Capability element of the Human Research Program, addresses the risk of "unacceptable health and mission outcomes due to limitations of in-flight medical capabilities". It itemizes 85 evidence-based clinical requirements for eight different mission profiles and identifies conditions warranting further research and technology development. Each condition is given a clinical priority for each mission profile. Four conditions -- intra-abdominal infections, skin lacerations, anaphylaxis, and behavioral emergencies -- were selected as a starting point for analysis. A systematic literature review was performed to understand how these conditions are treated in austere, limited-resource, space-analog environments (i.e., high-altitude and mountain environments, submarines, military deployments, Antarctica, isolated wilderness environments, in-flight environments, and remote, resource-poor, rural environments). These environments serve as analogs to spaceflight because of their shared characteristics (limited medical resources, delay in communication, confined living quarters, difficulty with resupply, variable time to evacuation). Treatment of these four medical conditions in austere environments provides insight into medical equipment and training requirements for exploration-class missions.

Chough, Natacha G.↗

A Cyber-Resilience Risk Management Architecture for Distributed Wind

Distributed wind is an electric energy resource segment with strong potential to be deployed in many applications, but special consideration of resilience and cybersecurity is needed to address the unique conditions associated with distributed wind. Distributed wind is a strong candidate to help meet renewable energy and carbon-free energy goals. However, care must be taken as more systems are installed to ensure that the systems are reliable, resilient, and secure. The physical and communications requirements for distributed wind mean that there are unique cybersecurity considerations, but there is little to no existing guidance on best practices for cybersecurity risk management for distributed wind systems specifically. This research develops an architecture for the consideration of cyber risks associated with distributed wind systems. The architecture takes into account the configurations, challenges, and standards for distributed wind to create a risk-focused perspective that considers of threats, vulnerabilities, and consequences, with special emphasis on what sets distributed wind systems apart from other distributed energy resources (DER). We discuss common distributed wind architectures and how they are interconnected to larger power systems. Because cybersecurity cannot exist independently, the cyber-resilience architecture must consider the system holistically. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a risk assessment process that uses the cyber-resilience framework to address challenges specific to distributed wind.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Risk Assessment of Bone Fracture During Space Exploration Missions to the Moon and Mars

The possibility of a traumatic bone fracture in space is a concern due to the observed decrease in astronaut bone mineral density (BMD) during spaceflight and because of the physical demands of the mission. The Bone Fracture Risk Module (BFxRM) was developed to quantify the probability of fracture at the femoral neck and lumbar spine during space exploration missions. The BFxRM is scenario-based, providing predictions for specific activities or events during a particular space mission. The key elements of the BFxRM are the mission parameters, the biomechanical loading models, the bone loss and fracture models and the incidence rate of the activity or event. Uncertainties in the model parameters arise due to variations within the population and unknowns associated with the effects of the space environment. Consequently, parameter distributions were used in Monte Carlo simulations to obtain an estimate of fracture probability under real mission scenarios. The model predicts an increase in the probability of fracture as the mission length increases and fracture is more likely in the higher gravitational field of Mars than on the moon. The resulting probability predictions and sensitivity analyses of the BFxRM can be used as an engineering tool for mission operation and resource planning in order to mitigate the risk of bone fracture in space.

Lewandowski, Beth E.↗

Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis of Low-Temperature Resources for Sedimentary Basin Geothermal Play Types: An Example in the Denver Basin

This project is part of a nationwide effort to highlight the advantages of incorporating low-temperature geothermal resource evaluation into the implementation of combined heat and power (CHP), and geothermal direct use (GDU) technologies (e.g., space heating and/or cooling). The initiative aims to hasten the nation's decarbonization process by exploring the potential for using low-temperature geothermal resources (< 150 Degrees Celsius) in selected sedimentary basins that have several population centers. The Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) techniques were modified from earlier studies of sedimentary basin geothermal play types (SBGPTs) that assessed the viability of low-temperature resources. The decision-making process for leveraging low-temperature geothermal resources for GDU and CHP applications is complex and considers a variety of factors, including geological, economic, and risk criteria. This study covers workflows, relevant datasets, python code, and both common and composite maps used to create low-temperature geothermal resource favorability maps for the Denver Basin, which extends across Colorado, Nebraska, and Wyoming. The replication of these methodologies in other SBGPTs can evaluate potential for low-temperature resources. The proposed geothermal PFA approach for low-temperature geothermal resources includes: (1) identifying available relevant data and grouping data sets into PFA criteria (e.g., geological, economic, and risk criteria); (2) analyzing data gaps enable future focalized exploration; (3) performing uncertainty quantification; (4) weighting relevant data; (5) developing favorability and common risk maps for low-temperature geothermal resources to identify potential locations for more focused data collection. This project will facilitate future deployment of CHP and GDU by providing data, tools, and a workflow applicable to low-temperature geothermal resources in sedimentary basins.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Techno-Economic Analysis and Market Potential of Geological Thermal Energy Storage (GeoTES) Charged With Solar Thermal and Heat Pumps into Depleted Oil/Gas Reservoirs and Shallow Reservoirs: A Technology Overview: Preprint

Depleted oil/gas reservoirs represent a waste of underground resources and investments of drilling, and also a potential risk to the earth's environment. Geologic thermal energy storage (GeoTES) is proposed as a solution to convert depleted oil/gas reservoirs into long-term seasonal energy storage. GeoTES can be hybridized with other techniques for viable commercial deployment, such as 1) concentrating solar power (CSP) collectors and 2) heat pumps with excess renewable energy. Here, a technology overview is given on the two GeoTES technologies, which includes system overview, techno-economic models, and case study. Both GeoTES technologies show great potential in the economics of individual project deployment and applicability across the US.

concentrating solar power↗

Project: Corbomite - Product: ConsoleWorks REACT

TDi Technologies presents ConsoleWorks REACT, an advanced platform designed to tackle the complexities of cyber and operational risk assessment. This comprehensive solution goes beyond asset-focused approaches by considering the impact of both assets and people have on the security and operation of critical infrastructure, specifically targeting preventing gird mis-operation by evaluating real-time human interaction or commands with critical assets. The hypothesis suggests that by integrating the assessment of user commands into the overall risk assessment process, organizations can make more informed decisions, prioritize resources effectively, and respond promptly to potential threats. This hypothesis forms the basis for the development of a proactive and holistic risk management approach that is more comprehensive and context aware than traditional models which only look at assets, patch levels, configuration and threat intel by collecting that information off the network vs directly from the asset, human, and human interaction all in real-time. ConsoleWorks' unique man-in-the-middle architecture is a key feature that sets it apart in the cybersecurity landscape. This architecture enables the real-time observation, enforcement, and commands or interaction risk transparency of user interaction with critical infrastructure to be risk mitigated and audited as they are aggregated with device and human risk factors for a more comprehensive risk threat score across a device or group of devices. This architecture allows ConsoleWorks to act as a secure intermediary between users and critical assets, monitoring all interactions and ensuring that only authorized commands are sent to the asset to be executed. This not only enhances security but also provides a comprehensive audit trail of all user activities, contributing to compliance efforts and facilitating incident investigation and risk management. By integrating this unique architecture with our comprehensive risk assessment methodology, ConsoleWorks REACT provides a powerful solution for managing cyber and operational risks, enabling organizations to maintain a robust security posture and effectively mitigate potential threats. To that end, the primary objective of this project was to research and develop a robust solution that enables the energy industry to mitigate the risks associated with human actions that can compromise the security or operations of assets critical to energy delivery, generation, transmission and operation. ConsoleWorks REACT plays a pivotal role in achieving this goal by leveraging its unique capabilities to monitor and track all user activity. Through its Zero Trust approach, which emphasizes continuous verification, the platform ensures secure access to assets and serves as the centralized human response and notification platform for addressing cyber and operational issues.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Smart Inverters, Dumb Risk: Taking Control of IBR Security in the Digital Age

This presentation addresses the security challenges posed by Inverter-Based Resources (IBRs) in the modern energy landscape. The presentation highlights the vulnerabilities and risks associated with IBRs, including the potential for cyber-attacks, the impact of insecure defaults, and the systemic risks posed by supply chain dependencies. Key topics covered include: 1) The increasing digital transformation in energy systems and the associated security risks. 2) Specific vulnerabilities in IBRs, including weak passwords, hardcoded credentials, and insecure web application interfaces. 3) The implications of persistent connectivity and the strategic risks posed by foreign-manufactured components. 4) The role of regulatory frameworks, such as NERC CIP, in addressing these challenges and the limitations of current oversight. 5) Practical solutions for mitigating risks, including secure design practices, vendor risk assessments, and the importance of strong passwords and role-based access control. The presentation underscores the necessity of a comprehensive, system-of-systems approach to securing IBRs, emphasizing the need for collaboration across various stakeholders, including operators, developers, and regulators, to ensure the resilience and security of the energy grid.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Potassium topping cycles for stationary power

A design study was made of the potassium topping cycle powerplant for central station use. Initially, powerplant performance and economics were studied parametrically by using an existing steam plant as the bottom part of the cycle. Two distinct powerplants were identified which had good thermodynamic and economic performance. Conceptual designs were made of these two powerplants in the 1200 MWe size, and capital and operating costs were estimated for these powerplants. A technical evaluation of these plants was made including conservation of fuel resources, environmental impact, technology status, and degree of development risk. It is concluded that the potassium topping cycle could have a significant impact on national goals such as air and water pollution control and conservation of natural resources because of its higher energy conversion efficiency.

Rossbach, R. J.↗