Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Risk consequence”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary Analysis of Postclosure DPC Criticality Consequences

One of the objectives of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Nuclear Energy's Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign is to better understand the technical basis, risks, and uncertainty associated with the safe and secure disposition of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste. Commercial nuclear power generation in the U.S. has resulted in thousands of metric tons of SNF, the disposal of which is the responsibility of the DOE (Nuclear Waste Policy Act 1982). Any repository licensed to dispose the SNF must meet requirements regarding the longterm performance of that repository. For an evaluation of the long-term performance of the repository, one of the events that may need to be considered is the SNF achieving a critical configuration. Of particular interest is the potential behavior of SNF in dual-purpose canisters (DPCs), which are currently being used to store and transport SNF but were not designed for permanent geologic disposal. A two-phase study has been initiated to begin examining the potential consequences, with respect to longterm repository performance, of criticality events that might occur during the postclosure period in a hypothetical repository containing DPCs. Phase I, a scoping phase, consisted of developing an approach intended to be a starting point for the development of the modeling tools and techniques that may eventually be required either to exclude criticality from or to include criticality in a performance assessment (PA) as appropriate; Phase I is documented in Price et al. (2019). The Phase I approach guided the analyses and simulations done in Phase II to further the development of these modeling tools and techniques as well as the overall knowledge base. The purpose of this report is to document the results of the analyses conducted during Phase II. The remainder of Section 1 presents the background, objective, and scope of this report, as well as the relevant key assumptions used in the Phase II analyses and simulations. Subsequent sections discuss the analyses that were conducted (Section 2), the results of those analyses (Section 3), and the summary and conclusions (Section 4). This report fulfills the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology Campaign deliverable M2SF-20SN010305061.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Risk-Informed Performance-Based Methodology to Manage Fire Protection Systems in Nuclear Facilities

Fire protection systems (FPSs) and features are installed in U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Hazard Category 1, 2, or 3 nuclear facilities to protect property (maximum possible fire loss thresholds), life, and nuclear safety (i.e., structures, systems, and components). These FPSs and features are designed and maintained in accordance with the prescriptive guidance provided in applicable building codes and National Fire Protection Association codes and standards. Management, operations, and maintenance activities of FPSs involve significant effort. A DOE facility’s documented safety analysis or other safety basis document could also rely on FPSs to provide either a safety significant or safety class function to mitigate fire hazards and minimize radiological consequences. In some cases, the designation of safety significant or safety class may be determined to provide a layer of defense-in-depth to minimize nuclear safety risks independent of the fire risk. DOE standards allow the use of performance-based design alternatives developed by the fire industry but do not consider the defense-in-depth layers of protection provided in DOE facilities to prevent or mitigate the risks associated with unintended release of radioactive materials into the environment. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory developed a decision-making methodology tailored for DOE non-reactor nuclear facilities to manage FPSs and features by integrating nuclear safety risk insights into a performance-based analysis. This risk-informed, performance-based (RIPB) methodology can be used to provide the technical basis for classifying an FPS as safety class and safety significant, tailoring administrative controls (e.g., technical safety requirements), and ranking the importance of FPSs to prioritize maintenance, upgrades, and replacement activities. The RIPB methodology is a graded approach to inform DOE facility owners and Fire Protection Program managers of the most risk-significant FPSs and equipment, and those systems would be cost-beneficial to relax rigor if there is a need to re-design the FPS coverage or deviate from DOE and National Fire Protection Association standards for those systems that would be less significant. This paper describes the framework used to develop the RIPB methodology and the outcome of implementing this methodology in a use-case nuclear facility. This paper also discusses the impact to DOE policies and standards and the safety margins and defense-in-depth measures credited in nuclear safety assessments in a facility’s documented safety analysis and the benefits of implementing an RIPB methodology in lieu of a prescriptive method to comply with fire protection requirements.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Exploring the Effects of Geopolitical Shifts on Global Wildlife Trade

Abstract International wildlife trade is a major driver of species extinction and biological invasions. Anticipating environmental risks requires inferences about trade patterns, which are shaped by geopolitics. Although the future cannot be predicted, scenarios can help deal with the uncertainty of future geopolitical dynamics. We propose a framework for generating and analyzing scenarios based on four geopolitical storylines, distinguished by combinations of international trade barrier strength and domestic law enforcement degree across countries supplying and demanding wildlife. We then use historical data on bird trade to classify countries into geopolitical profiles and confirm that trade barriers and law enforcement allow predicting bird trade patterns, supporting our scenarios’ plausibility and enabling projections for future global bird trade. Our framework can be used to examine the consequences of geopolitical changes for wildlife trade and to advise policy and legislation. Reducing demand for wildlife and ameliorating global inequality are key for curbing trade related risks.

Ribeiro, Joana (ORCID:0000000237555785)↗
DOE OSTI2025

A multiscale model of the action of a capsid assembly modulator for the treatment of chronic hepatitis B

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is strongly associated with increased risk of liver cancer and cirrhosis. While existing treatments effectively inhibit the HBV life cycle, viral rebound frequently occurs following treatment interruption. Consequently, functional cure rates of chronic HBV infection remain low and there is increased interest in a novel treatment modality, capsid assembly modulators (CAMs). Here, we develop a multiscale mathematical model of CAM treatment in chronic HBV infection. By fitting the model to participant data from a phase I trial of the first-generation CAM vebicorvir, we estimate the drug’s dose-dependent effectiveness and identify the physiological mechanisms that drive the observed biphasic decline in HBV DNA and RNA, and mechanistic differences between HBeAg-positive and negative infection. Finally, we demonstrate analytically and numerically that the relative change of HBV RNA more accurately reflects the antiviral effectiveness of a CAM than the relative change in HBV DNA.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Analysis of a 100 MW Hydrogen Generation Facility near a Nuclear Power Plant

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) are considering flexible plant operations to take advantage of excess thermal and electrical energy. One option for NPPs is to pursue hydrogen production through high temperature electrolysis as an alternate revenue stream to remain economically viable. The intent of this study is to investigate the risk of a 100 MW hydrogen production facility in close proximity to an NPP. Previous analyses have evaluated preliminary designs of a hydrogen production facility in a conservative manner to determine if it is feasible to co-locate the facility within 1 km of an NPP. This analysis specifically evaluates the risk components of a 100 MW hydrogen production facility design, including the likelihood of a leak within the system and the associated consequence to critical NPP targets. This analysis shows that although the likelihood of a leak in an HTEF is not negligible, the consequence to critical NPP targets is not expected to lead to a failure given adequate distance from the plant.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

LDRD23-0184: Resilience and Hazard Risk Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI)

Recent examples provide a significant concern for the resilience of the U.S. electric grid and represent a need for enhanced decision-making to address an increasingly wide range of complex system interactions and potential consequences. In response, this LDRD project produced a proof-of-concept evaluation called the Resilience and Hazard Assessment to Prioritize Security Operations for Decisions and Impacts (RHAPSODI) methodology as an agile and flexible analytic framework capable of addressing multiple, diverse threats to desired electric grid performance. After empirically grounding needs for the future of U.S. electric grid resilience, this project employed the systems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) to develop a systems engineering risk model. The results of a completed feasibility study of a notional high voltage transmission system demonstrate an improved ability to incorporate both spatial (e.g., geographically distributed) and temporal (e.g., dynamic and time-dependent) elements of security risk to the gird. The success of this LDRD project provides the foundation for further evolution of the systems engineering risk model for the grid; derivation of quantitative approaches to evaluate risk and resilience performance; facilitation of agile experimenting and grid sensitivity to a range of vulnerabilities; and development of tools to assist decision-makers in enhancing U.S. electrical grid resilience.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evolving Multi-hazard Machine Learning Modeling for Advanced Risk-Informed Infrastructure Resilience Assessment

The socioeconomic impacts of pipeline incidents have escalated over the past three decades, revealing the limitation of traditional risk modeling methods when applied to extensive pipeline networks. This research aims to develop machine learning (ML) models that effectively identify, rank, and predict the diverse hazards and socioeconomic consequences associated with pipeline incidents. Utilizing historical data on pipeline incidents alongside weather and oceanographic data from the 1980s onward, the Houston metropolitan area serves as a testbed for the proposed methodologies. The research segments the combined datasets into three consecutive periods, demonstrating the efficacy of the updated model in predicting future events, particularly concerning precipitation rate data. Despite the challenges posed by a relatively limited dataset, local-level ML modeling offers valuable insights into the spatial and temporal dynamics of multiple hazards that contribute to pipeline incidents. These findings hold significant implications for future research, particularly in understanding and mitigating risks in various locations across the Gulf Coast and other coastal regions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

End State: Vision for Future Land Use at Hanford

An end state vision is influenced by practical constraints associated with technology limitations, resource availability, costs, timing, and unintended consequences of remedial actions, and a site’s next intended use. Therefore, subsurface environmental remediation goals often need to be balanced against the risks and costs of contaminant removal versus leaving contamination in place. For example, in regions where contaminant concentrations are high but immobile, the intended site use should be evaluated in conjunction with the risk of re-mobilization with an aggressive remedy. By contrast, the technological challenges, cost, and time to reach remedial objectives of cleaning up low levels of contamination distributed over large areas in the subsurface may require different considerations for a site’s next intended use.

environmental remediation, environmental managemen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analyzing Insider Risk Threat to the Internet of Things (IoT)

Recent technological advancement has created a growing convergence of innovation. From machine learning to ubiquitous computing to wireless networks and automation, the world is seeing new technology increasingly capable of connecting with each other. Devices and systems use open communications networks to interact, process information, and react. This is called the Internet of Things (IoT) and is comprised of physical devices that exchange data over networks, creating revolutionary possibilities. The most common way most people interact with an IoT is through ‘smart home’ products like Amazon’s Alexa, which use microphones, speakers, and phones to control a variety of devices, from lights and thermostats, to cameras, to appliances and vacuum cleaners. But the open nature of IoT networks—necessary for their ability to communicate and operate—also introduces privacy and security concerns. At a personal level, this might mean a hack into a home to steal private information, but when applied in broader industries like healthcare, transportation, manufacturing, or the military, this vulnerability can have serious consequences. As IoT usage and interconnectivity increases, so too does the susceptibility to malicious actors. And the entire system is only as secure as its least secure member. This creates particular risk and vulnerability to radiological material industries, as a competent insider adversary could utilize the IoT to potentially steal or access classified or sensitive information about employees, sites, or systems; or simply sabotage security or maintenance from a more remote—and less secure—device. The IoT relies on a secure network across the entire system, especially in transport which may lack the security of more permanent locations; if one device fails, it can create a ripple effect and an insider threat may seek to exploit that connectivity. While IoT benefits drive increased innovation and usage, there are also vulnerabilities an insider threat could exploit; this risk of an IoT to radiological material must be addressed in any mitigation effort.

Kinney, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of SPH code Spheral to model interacting solid bodies in a supersonic flow

Contemporary discussions of planetary defense involve analyzing the risks posed by smaller sized, 20 to 200 m diameter, asteroids which are capable of breaking up in the atmosphere and generating a blast wave. Consequence assessments for this size class of asteroids are performed through fast-running analytic or semi-analytic models which are informed by high-fidelity hydrocode simulations of asteroid entry and breakup. However, insufficient historical data necessitates validating the independent physical processes which dominate airburst events. Here, the Fluid Solid Interface Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics solver was previously used by Pearl et al. in 2023 to model the Chelyabinsk airburst and is used here to perform a series of validation simulations. The first effort involves modeling a cylinder in a hypersonic flow and comparing the bow shock geometry to that predicted by analytic theory. The second effort involves modeling the separation of two spherical bodies in supersonic flow and validating against experimental footage. Combined, these exercises demonstrate the ability of the code to model the flight-path of interacting solid bodies in a hypersonic flow.

Airburst↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating offshore legacy wells for geologic carbon storage: A case study from the Galveston and Brazos areas in the Gulf of Mexico

In this article, federal offshore waters in the Gulf of Mexico are of interest for large-scale geologic carbon storage (GCS). However, more than 80,000 offshore oil and gas wells exist in the region, which could impact the integrity of sealing intervals. In this study, we propose a screening methodology for ranking offshore legacy wells based on the challenge they may present to GCS. The methodology relies on the review of well regulatory records to 1) identify leakage pathways and assess the potential hazards that wells pose to planned GCS operations, 2) evaluate well features that impact the accessibility of wells to determine the feasibility of potential corrective actions, and 3) rank wells based on the overall challenge they may pose for GCS. We demonstrate our framework by evaluating the construction and abandonment of 156 wells across eight areas of interest (AOIs) in shallow federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. The majority (99.3 %) of wells considered were constructed and plugged in a manner that did not isolate prospective GCS targets in the Upper and Lower Miocene formations and may potentially require a challenging or uncertain corrective action prior to GCS. Dataset trends suggest that the observed well construction and plugging designs may be common in shallow offshore federal waters along the Texas Gulf Coast. Consequently, operators pursuing offshore GCS projects in the region may consider selecting areas that avoid challenging wells or performing robust evaluations of legacy well leakage risks to plan corrective action prior to CO 2 injection.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Emerging Trends and Systemic Issues Influencing Today’s U.S. Electric Grid

With increasing shifts from vertically integrated to horizontally structured operations and from centralized to distributed electric power delivery, today’s electric power grid (the “grid”) operators and designers face the challenge of creating an architecture that accommodates a host of diverse requirements. The grid’s modes of operation must address concerns of reliability and stability, new deployments of renewable energy sources, threats from cyber-attacks and natural disasters, and increasingly distributed system operations. Grid modernization calls for a reliable, affordable, sustainable, agile, secure, and resilient grid. However, the modernization of the U.S. power grid is hampered by mounting complexity and diverging objectives from owners and operators and is consequently risky and fraught with potential missteps. Flawed architecture, design, and implementation will lead to stranded investments and lost opportunities. A principled approach to minimize risk and develop a robust grid of the future is to begin with a sound architecture for the grid to inform the design process. Architecture development starts with the context of influencing factors that provide constraints as well as driving goals. This report provides the context of emerging trends and cross-cutting systemic issues in the U.S. electric power grid and serves as a vital input for grid architecture development.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

DOE Investments in Environmentally Acceptable Lubricants for Hydropower Applications Fact Sheet

Environmentally acceptable lubricants (EALs) are defined as lubricants that meet U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards for “biodegradability, toxicity, and bioaccumulation potential that minimize their likely adverse consequences in the aquatic environment, compared to conventional lubricants.” Restrictions from state, local, and federal agencies, as well as a growing awareness of the environmental risks associated with petroleumbased lubricants, have shifted government and industry to seek out high-performing EALs. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is working to reduce the environmental impacts of hydropower development and operation by investing in tools and methods to develop, demonstrate, and validate EAL materials.

water, environment, hydropower, EALs↗
DOE OSTI2022

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Identification of Hydrogen Rail Maintenance Facility Hazards

Maintenance facilities for hydrogen rail, the activities conducted within such facilities, and how these activities differ from ordinary rail or hydrogen vehicle maintenance are currently being considered for the hazards specific to hydrogen. By performing a hazard and operability study (HAZOP) on numerous potential maintenance and repair scenarios, select low, medium, and high risk hazards relevant to hydrogen rail systems in such environments have been identified. The analysis resulted in 79 unique HAZOP scenarios: one scenario in the high risk category, 43 in the medium risk category, and 35 in the low risk category. Notably, large accidental releases of hydrogen due to tank rupture, aberrant defueling processes, or relief device opening within a facility are important low likelihood consequences that should nevertheless be appropriately prevented and mitigated.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

BioSecure Digital Twin: Manufacturing Innovation and Cybersecurity Resilience

U.S. national security, prosperity, economy, and well-being require secure, flexible, and resilient Biopharmaceutical Manufacturing. The COVID-19 pandemic reaffirmed that the biomedical production value-chain is vulnerable to disruption and has been under attack from sophisticated nation-state adversaries. Current cyber defenses are inadequate, and the integrity of critical production systems and processes are inherently vulnerable to cyber-attacks, human error, and supply chain disruptions. The following chapter explores how a BioSecure Digital Twin will improve U.S. manufacturing resilience and preparedness to respond to these hazards by significantly improving monitoring, integrity, security, and agility of our manufacturing infrastructure and systems. The BioSecure Digital Twin combines a scalable manufacturing framework with a robust platform for monitoring and control to increase U.S. biopharma manufacturing resilience. Then, the chapter discusses some of the inherent vulnerabilities and challenges at the nexus of health and advanced manufacturing. Next, the chapter highlights that as the Pandemic evolves, we need agility and resilience to overcome significant obstacles. This section highlights an innovative application of Cyber Informed Engineering to developing and deploying a BioSecure Digital Twin to improve the resilience and security of the biopharma industrial supply chain and production processes. Finally, the chapter concludes with a process framework to complement the Digital Twin platform, called the Biopharma (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act) OODA Loop Framework (BOLF), a four-step approach to decision-making outputs from the Digital Twin. The BOLF will help end users leverage twin technology by distilling the available information, focusing the data on context, and rapidly making the best decision while remaining cognizant of changes that can be made as more data becomes available.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Integrating Cyber-Informed Engineering into Enterprise Risk Management

This document supports the application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) within the context of Enterprise Risk Management (ERM) to enhance cyber-resilience. It highlights that many critical infrastructure organizations use ERM to manage business risks and emphasizes the importance of evaluating critical systems and assets. The proposed approach can be adopted independently of formal ERM processes and offers a starting point for integrating CIE alongside existing or new ERM practices. Both CIE and ERM are iterative, and their alignment fosters continuous improvement and supports the engineering and operations cultures of an organization.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Contact Resistance and Fin Effectiveness of Enhanced, Brazed "Dogbone" Fin and Serpentine Tube Heat Exchangers for Air Conditioning and Heat Pump Applications

The energy consumption due to air conditioning is projected to increase by 1.3 and 4.5 times by 2050 compared to 2010 for members and non-members of the Organization of Economic Coordination and Development (OECD), respectively. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions must be carefully managed to minimize their hazardous contribution to climate change. Air conditioners (AC) and heat pumps (HP) contribute with direct GHG emissions through systemic refrigerant leakage, which consequently degrades the system’s performance and therefore increases its indirect GHG emissions as well. To address this issue, the goals of new systems include minimizing leakage risk, using low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants such as natural refrigerants, and increasing system efficiency. This paper presents part of the efforts in the development of a brazed “dogbone” fin to continuous serpentine tube heat exchanger (HX) for AC/HP applications. The main advantages of such technology are: 1) The potential to reduce 90% or more of the tube return-bends brazed joints compared to conventional tube-fin heat exchangers, thus minimizing leakage vulnerability, enabling the use of natural refrigerants like Propane and Ammonia that carry other concerning risks of flammability and toxicity ; and 2) The brazed fin to the tube joints should yield very low contact resistance. In order to quantify and estimate the impacts of contact resistance and fin effectiveness, a numerical-experimental study is investigated. The novel enhanced brazed “dog-bone” fin is compared to an equivalent pressure expanded fin. The results showed that the expanded fin has consistently greater effective heat transfer but greater contact resistance as well. Furthermore, the brazed fins have up to 20% lower pressure drop. The trade-off comparison shows that the thermal-hydraulic ratio between the two fins is equivalent for air velocities below 2m/s; for greater velocities, however, the expanded fin is favored since it has less fin efficiency penalty. For HVAC&R applications, the air velocities are typically low which makes the proposed technology competitive and a viable option in the pursuit of refrigerant leakage reduction.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗