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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure rates in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment - PRA. This is because PRAs typically model a mature vehicle where a significant portion of the early failure probability contributors have been eliminated due to testing and improvements after actual field operation. To capture a more accurate early flight failure probability estimate, this paper develops a method that estimates ascent failure probability starting with the first flight based on historical launch vehicle records. With new launch vehicles being developed, such as the Space Launch System - SLS, a PRA model must be extended to cover early flight failure probability contributions that are either not covered in the mature-vehicle PRA or are underestimated. These failure probability contributions include design errors, quality control deficiencies, installation errors, and environmental impacts. There are also failure dependencies due to systemic errors that still exist due to limited entire-system testing.

Cross, Robert B.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Synthesizing a New Launch Vehicle Failure Probability Based on Historical Flight Data

New launch vehicles have historically had significantly higher failure probabilities in early flights than what has been predicted using Probabilistic Risk Assessment. Work on a new methodology originally started with ARES I-X and the Common Standards Working Group (CSWG) for range safety applications. CSWG consists of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Air Force, and NASA. Historical launch vehicle data was viewed as the best predictor of success/failure for launches of new vehicles. A launch vehicle database was developed that includes all launches from 1980-2017 (both US and foreign). Entries to the database include: Vehicle by model type; Launch dates; Failure description; Failure Result (Loss Of Vehicle (LOV)/Loss Of Mission (LOM); Failure cause (when available); Vehicle designs (stages/engines/etc.)

Early flight risk↗
NASA NTRS2019

Oceanic and Radiative Forcing of Medieval Megadroughts in the American Southwest

Multidecadal "megadroughts" were a notable feature of the climate of the American Southwest over the Common era, yet we still lack a comprehensive theory for what caused these megadroughts and why they curiously only occurred before about 1600 CE. Here, we use the Paleo Hydrodynamics Data Assimilation product, in conjunction with radiative forcing estimates, to demonstrate that megadroughts in the American Southwest were driven by unusually frequent and cold central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) excursions in conjunction with anomalously warm Atlantic SSTs and a locally positive radiative forcing. This assessment of past megadroughts provides the first comprehensive theory for the causes of megadroughts and their clustering particularly during the Medieval era. This work also provides the first paleoclimatic support for the prediction that the risk of American Southwest megadroughts will markedly increase with global warming.

Steiger, Nathan J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Proposition to Optimize Fire Stations for Wildfires

The rising trend in wildfire occurrence and severity has put a strain on wildfire management organizations by spreading out limited resources to meet increasing demand. There has been extensive prior research and data collection to determine the areas of highest risk and to predict regional wildfire damages based on historical trends. Our group aims to utilize this data to best determine fire station placement, optimizing where resources are allocated to reduce the time and investment needed to effectively mitigate wildfires. Using existing research, we are able to calculate optimal fire station locations by utilizing a single-objective facility location problem algorithm incentivized for cost reduction. Further work would be needed to refine the algorithm to accommodate for more realistic factors including access to water and roadways as well as better accounting for the costs involved, but our work serves as a proof of concept and lays the foundation for future research. Implementation of this algorithm would allow public fire planning agencies (such as CAL FIRE and Forest Service) to shift resources to where they would be most effective.

Wildfires↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-based Experiments to Model Break-up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office; the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples as with as with the NASA SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of NASA’s Newest Engineering Model, ORDEM 4.0

Since the mid-1990s, one of the most important products produced by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has been the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This series of models distills down our knowledge of the orbital debris environment to compute debris fluxes on satellites in a given orbit. This information can be used by spacecraft and upper stage designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The current version of the model is ORDEM 3.2, but the ODPO is working on the next generation of ORDEM, to be designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. ORDEM 4.0 will update debris populations using the most recent measurements, including radar observations by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, data from the new Space Surveillance Network Space Fence, and observations of Geosynchronous Earth Orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). The latest in situ impact data from returned hardware surfaces will be used. In addition, ORDEM 4.0 will introduce a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, such as DebriSat. This will allow analysts to implement shape characteristics in their damage equations and more accurately predict impact damage risk by debris of different shapes and orientations. This paper provides an overview of some of the new features forthcoming in ORDEM 4.0 and a status report on its development.

Mark Matney↗
NASA NTRS2023

An In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) Concept of Operations for Vertiport Design and Operations

The National Airspace System is foreseen to undergo revolutionary change with Urban Air Mobility (UAM) and its use of vertiports to transport passengers and cargo. To assure safety with UAM and more broadly with Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), the National Academies recommended an In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) that is extensible to the design and operation of vertiports. Vertiport designs will scale in several dimensions including physical size and infrastructure depending upon location and in the Services, Functions, and Capabilities required for assuring safety with increasingly complex vertiport designs and operations. These operations will be enabled by evolving technologies including electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for passenger-and cargo-carrying commercial transportation. Within this construct, safety hazards and risk mitigations involving predictive data analytics and modeling will be used. Use cases and future challenges are examined to guide maturation of the IASMS ConOps for vertiports.

K Ellis↗
NASA NTRS2023

Statistical Approach on Utilizing Ground-Based Experiments to Model Break-Up Events

Two laboratory-based impact tests have been conducted to develop and extend the capability of NASA satellite breakup models. The first experiment, the Satellite Orbital Debris Characterization Impact Test (SOCIT), was conducted by the U.S. Department of Defense and NASA in 1992. It employed a fully functional U.S. Navy Transit spacecraft, fabricated from materials commonly used in the 1960s. SOCIT fragmentation data formed the basis of the current NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM). A second experiment, DebriSat, was conducted in 2014 by the DebriSat consortium: the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office, the United States Space Force Space Systems Command, formerly the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, the Air Force Arnold Engineering Development Complex, and the University of Florida. This impact test was performed on a high-fidelity mock-up satellite assembled from modern components. Data from both experiments are expected to contribute to the next-generation models for on-orbit breakup analyses, long-term environment predictions, and debris risk assessment. This paper uses the direct statistical sampling of the SOCIT and DebriSat data ensembles to model an on-orbit breakup event, rather than the analytic expressions estimated from the samples in the SSBM and its predecessor. This direct method involves drawing fragments (i.e., sampling with replacement) from each fragmentation data-subset containing mass, shape category, material density, characteristic length, mass, and cross-sectional area. As part of the sampling process, the properties of sampled fragment data (e.g., area-to-mass ratios) are numerically checked to ensure they do not contain unrealistic quantities. The process to simulate a breakup cloud composed of fragments from SOCIT and DebriSat datasets is discussed. The methodology for ensuring that conservation of overall mass of the sampled fragment cloud under this sampling approach is highlighted. Finally, the results are compared with simulated clouds generated from SSBM for specific historical breakup events.

Andrew Vavrin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Overview of NASA’s Newest Engineering Model, ORDEM 4.0

Since the mid-1990s, one of the most important products produced by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has been the Orbital Debris Engineering Model (ORDEM). This series of models distills down our knowledge of the orbital debris environment to compute debris fluxes on satellites in a given orbit. This information can be used by spacecraft and upper stage designers and operators to design missions for better protection against the debris environment. The current version of the model is ORDEM 3.2, but the ODPO is working on the next generation of ORDEM, to be designated ORDEM 4.0. ORDEM 4.0 will include many known features from previous models, such as the ability to input a spacecraft orbit and time and to compute the flux as a function of debris size, impact speed, impact direction, and debris material densities, as well as uncertainty information on the flux. ORDEM 4.0 will update debris populations using the most recent measurements, including radar observations by the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), NASA’s Goldstone radar, data from the new Space Surveillance Network Space Fence, and observations of Geosynchronous Earth Orbits (GEO) using the Eugene Stansbery-Meter Class Autonomous Telescope (ES-MCAT). The latest in situ impact data from returned hardware surfaces will be used. In addition, ORDEM 4.0 will introduce a parameterized debris shape model based on laboratory hypervelocity impact tests, such as DebriSat. This will allow analysts to implement shape characteristics in their damage equations and more accurately predict impact damage risk by debris of different shapes and orientations. This paper provides an overview of some of the new features forthcoming in ORDEM 4.0 and a status report on its development.

Mark Matney↗
DOE OSTI2021

Golden Eagle Behavioral Modeling Enabled by High-Fidelity Atmospheric Models

The DOE-funded Golden Eagle Behavioral Modeling project combines knowledge of eagle behavior, eagle telemetry data, high-fidelity atmospheric and wind power plant flow models, and machine learning to develop tools that predict behavior and risk around wind power plants. This presentation provides background on the project and modeling approaches, as well as recent modeling and validation results from the region around the Top of the World wind plant in Wyoming.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Criteria for Retention of 3013 S1 Containers Based on Relative Risk and Expert Judgment

An evaluation was performed to assess the suitability of thirty-three 3013 containers proposed for retention. These containers have moisture levels greater than 0.08 wt.% – the S1 population. The remainder of the S1 population stored at SRS will be down blended and disposed of by the end of 2028. Based on field surveillance and shelf-life data available to date as well as informed technical judgment, no container is currently expected to fail in its 50-year storage period. However, corrosion risk varies across the S1 population. Relative risks were evaluated using predicted Consensus Scores and their 95% Upper Prediction Limits (UPLs). The predicted values are based on a statistical model of Consensus Score as a function of moisture, chloride, and whether the packaged material was electrorefining scrap packaged at Hanford. Consensus Score has been shown to be a useful indicator of corrosion potential, and the UPL captures uncertainty in the model predictions, providing a conservative indicator of corrosion potential. Using UPLs to determine relative risks, together with expert review, three containers were identified as not suitable for retention, and the remainder were determined to be suitable.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

(U) Blast Tube Rehabilitation (Final Design Review) [Slides]

Saddle design is being proposed to improve overall response of facility. No plasticity predicted in tube sections buying down risk of a catastrophic failure. Plasticity is predicted in the support for loadings representing 190# C4. The design has been iterated to decrease localized plasticity and buy down risk. It is recommended that no amount of explosive driver be placed in A36 sections. Previous work suggests yielding can develop in the tube section causing rupture. J2 colleagues have reviewed analysis results. Outstanding question of additional plastic strain is developing from subsequent uses.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2024

Machine Learning for the Prediction of Local Asteroid Damages

Risk assessment studies of local asteroid hazards traditionally simulate the physics of meteors with engineering models tailored to analyze tens-of-millions of scenarios. However, these simplified approaches still need to solve time-dependent ODEs to model the entry process and the resulting ground damage. With a computational cost of O(0.01 CPU.s) per scenario, simulating these large numbers of potential entry conditions in risk assessment studies can take several days on local computers. To improve computational efficiency, we propose in this paper an orthogonal approach based on machine learning models to predict the size of damaged areas given a list of entry parameters. We train 5 machine learning methods and compare the predictions to the outputs of the PAIR model, first only with primitive entry condition variables, and then with more advanced features. We find that complex models like neural networks are well-suited to estimate blast hazards, while simpler linear models can accurately assess thermal damage. For both types of hazards, the radii of damaged areas can be predicted with around 10% average errors and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.99. The CPU time is decreased by a factor O(10 3 ) compared to the PAIR model, which enables the simulation of millions of scenarios in minutes, on a local computer. We then use the same machine learning approaches for a classification task where the models are trained to predict if an asteroid will produce a given level of damage. Results show that complex models like the gradient boosting classifier and the neural network can perform this task with 98% accuracy. Beyond surrogate models, we finally incorporate the machine learning algorithms to the state-of-the-art Shapley sensitivity analysis and present a ranking of the entry parameters based on their contributions to ground damages.

SMD↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Design and Testing of an Approach to Automated In-Flight Safety Risk Management for sUAS Operations

An onboard risk management automation design is presented based on run-time assurance principles, as well as the concept for In-Time Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS) as described by the National Academies. The automation is designed to operate independently of the autopilot and perform real-time risk assessment spanning multiple classes of hazards, predict constraint violations, and track autopilot states. In the event of elevated risk conditions or predicted constraint violations, the automation will select from a set of available contingencies and trigger autopilot mode changes if necessary to mitigate risk exposure. The onboard automation also informs the remote operator/pilot of what the independent monitor is observing and any contingency decisions or actions that may arise during flight. Details of an implementation of this design and results of verification and validation activities, as required to meet stringent NASA software and system assurance standards, are also presented. This includes simulation and flight testing using small unmanned aircraft systems.

Ersin Ancel↗
NASA NTRS2000

Forecasting disease risk for increased epidemic preparedness in public health

Emerging infectious diseases pose a growing threat to human populations. Many of the world's epidemic diseases (particularly those transmitted by intermediate hosts) are known to be highly sensitive to long-term changes in climate and short-term fluctuations in the weather. The application of environmental data to the study of disease offers the capability to demonstrate vector-environment relationships and potentially forecast the risk of disease outbreaks or epidemics. Accurate disease forecasting models would markedly improve epidemic prevention and control capabilities. This chapter examines the potential for epidemic forecasting and discusses the issues associated with the development of global networks for surveillance and prediction. Existing global systems for epidemic preparedness focus on disease surveillance using either expert knowledge or statistical modelling of disease activity and thresholds to identify times and areas of risk. Predictive health information systems would use monitored environmental variables, linked to a disease system, to be observed and provide prior information of outbreaks. The components and varieties of forecasting systems are discussed with selected examples, along with issues relating to further development.

Disease Outbreaks↗
NASA NTRS2011

Vehicle Shield Optimization and Risk Assessment for Future Human Space Missions

As the focus of future human space missions shifts to destinations beyond low Earth orbit such as Near Earth Objects (NEO), the moon, or Mars, risks associated with extended stay in hostile radiation environment need to be well understood and assessed. Since future spacecrafts designs and shapes are evolving continuous assessments of shielding and radiation risks are needed. In this study, we use a predictive software capability that calculates risks to humans inside a spacecraft prototype that builds on previous designs. The software uses CAD software Pro/Engineer and Fishbowl tool kit to quantify radiation shielding provided by the spacecraft geometry by calculating the areal density seen at a certain point, dose point, inside the spacecraft. Shielding results are used by NASA-developed software, BRYNTRN, to quantify organ doses received in a human body located in the vehicle in case of solar particle event (SPE) during such prolonged space missions. Organ doses are used to quantify risks on astronauts health and life using NASA Space Cancer Model. The software can also locate shielding weak points-hotspots-on the spacecraft s outer surface. This capability is used to reinforce weak areas in the design. Results of shielding optimization and risk calculation on an exploration vehicle design for missions of 6 months and 30 months are provided in this study. Vehicle capsule is made of aluminum shell that includes main cabin and airlock. The capsule contains 5 sets of racks that surround working and living areas. Water shelter is provided in the main cabin of the vehicle to enhance shielding in case of SPE.

Nounu, Hatem N.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development and validation of a next-generation sequencing-based multigene assay to predict the prognosis of estrogen receptor-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer

Purpose: Multigene assays provide useful prognostic information regarding hormone receptor (HR)-positive breast cancer. Next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based platforms have numerous advantages including reproducibility and adaptability in local laboratories. Here we aimed to develop and validate an NGS-based multigene assay to predict the distant recurrence risk. Experimental Design: In total, 179 genes including 30 reference genes highly correlated with the 21-gene recurrence score (RS) algorithm were selected from public databases. Targeted RNA-sequencing was performed using 250 and 93 archived breast cancer samples with a known RS in the training and verification sets, respectively, to develop the algorithm and NGS–Prognostic Score (NGS-PS). The assay was validated in 413 independent samples with long-term follow-up data on distant metastasis. Results: In the verification set, the NGS-PS and 21-gene RS displayed 91.4% concurrence (85/93 samples). In the validation cohort of 413 samples, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve plotted using NGS-PS values classified for distant recurrence was 0.76. The best NGS-PS cut-off value predicting distant metastasis was 20. Furthermore, 269 and 144 patients were classified as low- and high-risk patients in accordance with the cut-off. Five- and 10-year estimates of distant metastasis–free survival (DMFS) for low- versus high-risk groups were 97.0% versus 77.8% and 93.2% versus 64.4%, respectively. The age-related HR for distant recurrence without chemotherapy was 9.73 (95% CI, 3.59–26.40) and 3.19 (95% CI, 1.40–7.29) for patients aged ≤50 and >50 years, respectively. Conclusions: The newly developed and validated NGS-based multigene assay can predict the distant recurrence risk in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗